PROSPECT 2025: Much was said during the recent presidential election about the Heritage Foundation publication “Project 2025.” The 920 page document called Mandate, published in April 2023, had lots of controversial proposals about how to reorganize government and address some of the nation’s biggest challenges. During the campaign, former and future President Trump said he hadn’t read it and didn’t know anything about the document. But it turns out that several of his subsequent nominees do/did. One of them, Russell Vought who was picked to head the Office of Management and Budget was one of the authors of Project 2025. OMB controls the federal government purse strings. And CIA Director nominee John Ratcliffe was also a contributor to the Heritage report. So, what does the report say about the national security issues that are nearest and dearest to the hearts of Cipher Brief readers? Well, the report emphasizes what the authors see as the urgent need to modernize the U.S. military, including the nuclear triad, to counter threats from China and Russia. It advocates investments in advanced military technology and maintaining a robust naval presence to meet fleet capacity goals while at the same time doing away with DEI policies in DOD. The report focuses on addressing theaters like the Indo-Pacific to counter China's growing influence while maintaining readiness to manage limited contingencies elsewhere, such as countering Iran's nuclear ambitions and supporting Israel’s defense. Regarding intelligence, the report talks about streamlining the intelligence community's operations to better address emerging global threats, particularly from China and other state actors. How much of the Heritage report ends up in our future – remains to be seen.
CONFIRMATION BIAS: With a full slate of potential nominees to senior positions in the next administration on the table – focus is turning to the Senate’s advice and consent function. That is a particularly challenging mission given the narrow Republican margin in the upper house and the controversial backgrounds of some of the candidates. Adding to uncertainty is (at least for now) the transition team’s decision not to request the normal FBI background investigations on candidates and instead contract out that function. Former FBI assistant director Frank Figliuzzi stressed that the FBI doesn’t make the call on Cabinet nominees but instead just investigates and tells the executive and legislative branches “Here’s what we found. Here’s what troubles us.” He notes that private firms doing the vetting can’t access much of the information the FBI can.
HERE'S AN IDEA THAT WILL NEVER FLY: Without FBI background investigations, how can senators, the incoming administration and the agencies that some national security nominees are about to lead have confidence that there are no major skeletons in the closet of top picks? One veteran intelligence official suggested to us that senators conducting confirmation hearings could ask select nominees if they would be willing to subject themselves to the same polygraph examinations that the people they may be about to lead routinely must pass. We hear you saying, That will never happen! But it has happened. A few CIA directors have voluntarily taken the polygraphs out of solidarity with their workforce. We can’t see that happening in the current environment – but it would be fun to watch some nominees try to explain to their confirmation committee why they would not subject themselves to the same procedures (background checks and polygraphs) that their workforce must pass as a condition of employment.
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BAD TRACKS: WIRED magazine conducted a joint investigation with two German organizations suggesting that there are potential security implications of companies that legally collect digital advertising data. Wired says the information could be used to provide “a cheap and reliable way to track the movements of American military and intelligence personnel overseas, from their homes and their children’s schools to hardened aircraft shelters within an airbase where US nuclear weapons are believed to be stored.” And just to make sure they got readers attention – Wired added that they were able to track “As many as four devices that regularly pinged from Ramstein Air Base (and) were later tracked to nearby brothels off base, including a multistory facility called SexWorld.” Senator Ron Wyden (D, OR) is said to have raised the issue with DoD in September and more recently with the NSC but had not heard back about security concerns raised by data brokers having access to the movements of military personnel overseas. Data used to send targeted advertising – could end up targeting quite different things.
DREAM TRAILERS: We don’t know about you – but we are finding it tough to keep track of all the new tv series and movies that focus on national security, foreign policy and intelligence. There are so many franchises that it’s hard to keep them straight. There’s a new Jack Ryan motion picture and the next installment of Mission Impossible (Dead Reckoning Part Two) on the horizon. But what is adding to our confusion is that some people are making movie trailers for films that have not yet been made and may never be. Called “dream trailers” these are often created by fans who WANT to see another installment of a favored franchise – or who speculate about what might be included in a nascent project. For example, check out this trailer for “Night Has Fallen” supposedly starring Gerard Butler and Morgan Freeman. You would be forgiven if you assumed that the film is about to come out – but apparently it is — at most — the gleam in someone’s eye. Artificial intelligence, improvements in video editing and people with too much time on their hands all contribute to adding to the confusion. Note the opening slide of the trailer admits that: “The Following Fan Made Trailer has been created for Appropriate Audiences to inspire actors, film makers and the fans of the franchise.” And it adds “The Dream Trailer has been rated R (Realistic) requires throughout willing suspension of disbelief and knowledge of the franchise.”
SZMYDT HAPPENED: The Dead Drop told you back in May about Tomasz Szmydt, a Polish judge who defected to Belarus and who was under investigation for working on behalf of a foreign intelligence service. Now, about six months later, he has formally been granted asylum in Belarus under a decree signed by Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus’s president said the judge was being targeted “for political reasons” in his home country. In any case – he now has a new home in which to hang his hat – and robe.
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
THIS JUST IN: It is important that spokespeople for national security organizations stay in close contact with their leaders – but sometimes that can go a bit too far. For example, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, was conducting a live press briefing last week when her cell phone buzzed. She stopped to answer the call and microphones at the lectern picked up the voice of an unidentified man saying, “On the Yuzhmash ballistic missile strike that the Westerners have started talking about, we are not commenting at all.” She acknowledged the guidance and resumed talking to the assembled press…neither confirming nor denying the reports.
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