WHAT WOULD THE EXPERTS SAY: Just after the U.S. presidential election, there was much speculation about how the next Trump administration will impact U.S. national security.We know from his last four years in office that Trump is likely to be tough on China but we’re still a little weirded out over the whole public ‘bro love’ thing with Russian President Vladimir Putin (which could be kinda troublesome). A former Russia expert from the CIA who spent a lot of time on the Putin problem told The Cipher Brief that “It is absolutely critical that he [President-elect Trump] picks a good national security team. I think having people who are experienced or people who are smart enough to bring people with them that are very experienced - and then listening to those people - and then empowering them will be critical.”
THE GANG IS GETTING BACK TOGETHER: Politico has been doing some digging into who will be heading up the Trump transition teams. They report that Brian Hook will lead up that mission for the State Department and Robert Wilkie for the Defense Department. Joel Rayburn and Michael Anton are reportedly on tap for roles on the National Security Council transition team and former Trump DNI John Ratcliffe will have a hand in transition planning on national security policy.
OUR OWN TWO CENTS: Meanwhile, as the pundits and prognosticators try to figure out who will be doing what – the truth is that it’s just way too early to tell. We agree with our Russia expert that a key area to watch will be who gets those senior roles within the administration. But beware of names that are suddenly being floated out of nowhere – often these are (self-inflated) trial balloons. And even names that come from generally trusted sources may be nothing more than pure speculation. The truth is that no one’s gonna know til they know but here’s a name to watch. At a recent rally in Macon, Georgia, Hershel Walker threw his endorsement to Donald Trump. Right after his remarks, the president-elect said he was going to “build a missile defense shield all made in the USA” and that he was going to “put Hershel Walker in charge of that little sucker.” No offense Hershel, but our two cents for the president-elect is that the former NFL player was a running back. We think the new administration might want to look for someone who actually played defense.
DON’T GIVE HIM A POST: While administration posts can sometimes go to those who helped get a candidate elected, we’re hoping the incoming president-elect knows where to draw the (red) line. It seems that in the days just before the election, the Russian President did what he could to help tip the outcome in Trump’s favor by having Kremlin information warriors distribute videos targeting U.S. voters. While those watching the videos were likely clueless as to where they came from (isn’t that always the case), cyber and election experts say the Kremlin didn’t even bother to cover its tracks. While there doesn’t seem to be evidence that the videos actually tipped the scales, the move does indicate that Vlad doesn’t really care who knows who he voted for.
FEAR OF COMMITMENT: While the world was focused on other things on election day, a U.S. district court judge in San Diego sentenced former defense contractor Leonard Francis (widely known as “Fat Leonard”) to 15 years in prison and ordered him to pay $20 million in restitution and forfeit another $35 million in “ill-gotten proceeds for his crimes.” According to authorities, his ‘crimes’ involved decades of bribing dozens of U.S. Navy officers and other officials. Francis, who was arrested more than a decade ago and who pled guilty in 2015 – escaped from house arrest in 2022 and went to Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela trying to make his way to Russia. But authorities eventually caught up with Fat Leonard and he was sent back to the U.S. (Hollywood couldn’t make this stuff up.) The Fat Leonard story was, however, told in a book that was released earlier this year. Not sure if you wanna commit to the whole book? Read our expert review first in The Cipher Brief.
RISE OF THE NERDS: In much of the world, nerdy video game players only fantasize about being war heroes. But in Ukraine – as detailed in a recent Wall Street Journal story - dweebs are becoming elite warfighters, piloting drones that demand “quick thinking, sharp eyes and nimble thumbs, the kind of prowess more readily associated with computer games than military combat.” See? All that time we’ve spent yelling at the kids - complaining that they spent too much time playing video games – and now it turns out they actually were developing useful skills.
THEY ARE EATING THE DOGS: Not in Springfield, Ohio but, according to some accounts, in Russia - where Russian troops are maybe unknowingly digging into cans of meat brought in by their new North Korean comrades. Ukrainian military intelligence says there are now about 12,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia with some of them already located in the Kursk region. Now, dog is a delicacy – well, perhaps just a necessity – in parts of the Korean peninsula. South Korea says its planning to ban the practice – but the prohibition doesn’t kick in until 2027. For Pyongyang (and parts of Ukraine) puppy chow apparently remains on the table.
THE DANGER OF FEEDING THE DUCKS: The Dead Drop told you two weeks ago, about an ongoing British inquiry into the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal in 2018. While the former Russian intelligence officer and his daughter fell ill after the botched assassination attempt by GRU officers – the new news, from the BBC, is that on the day he was poisoned with the poison known as Novichok, Skripal came into contact with a young boy in the town of Salisbury and handed the lad bread to feed to some ducks. The boy reportedly also fell ill for a day or two after the encounter – but apparently suffered no lasting negative effects. No word on the health of the ducks.
JACK’S BACK: Word is out that Amazon is developing a feature film starring John Krasinski as Jack Ryan. Krasinski played the CIA analyst turned adventurist hero for more than four seasons in a TV-series based on the Tom Clancy books. We don’t know exactly why Amazon is doing a feature film but some sources tell us that the action in the last season of the show was a bit slow as it dragged out over six full episodes. Perhaps a feature film version will fix that problem. At the moment, we still haven’t figured out if the new flick will be in theaters or just streaming but either way, it looks like Jack is back.
SPIES REVEALED: We heard about a book coming out in March, The Invisible Spy: Churchill’s Rockefeller Center Spy Ring and America’s First Secret Agent of World War II. (We have two immediate reactions. First, aren’t all spies supposed to be invisible? Second, must all books have book-length subtitles?) The book by Thomas Maier is said to tell “The untold WWII story of a former NFL player turned White House insider who worked with Churchill’s undercover agents in New York City to conduct the biggest foreign spy operation ever within the US, and inspired Ian Fleming's James Bond.” The Dead Drop told you back in August that Maier’s previous book, Mafia Spies, has been picked up by Paramount+ and is being turned into a six-part documentary about CIA efforts in the 1960s to work with mafia members in a failed effort to make Fidel Castro disappear. (Wait, a former NFL player turned White House insider? It feels like we just read something about that.)
SHAMELESS (SELF-PROMOTION) : A look behind the scenes of The Cipher Brief:
SIGN ME UP: It seems the world really wants to know what’s on the mind of Bill Burns these days. The CIA Director offered a rare public interview during last month’s Cipher Brief Threat Conference and the video posted to The Cipher Brief’s YouTube Channel has racked up more than 106K views.Who else is talking to The Cipher Brief? We suggest you subscribe to the YouTube channel to find out. That’s also where Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly will be making a big announcement at the end of this month.
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
WE ARE LEARY ABOUT THIS ONE: Fox has a TV comedy coming in January called “Going Dutch.” It apparently stars Denis Leary as “arrogant, loudmouth U.S. Army Colonel Patrick Quinn (Leary), who after an unfiltered rant, is reassigned to the Netherlands, where he is punished with a command position at the least important army base in the world.” A brief trailer has been released. We know it’s just a comedy – but, in what Army are you “punished” by being given command of anything? Or by being sent to the Netherlands?
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