HOW SUN TZU OF YOU: Chinese military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu once said, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” The Cipher Brief is taking notes and just released a new video on disinformation that shows just how adversaries are using the strategic tactic to destabilize western democracies one social media user at a time, especially as elections approach. How clever to use Sun Tzu’s tactics to recruit an unwitting army of ‘Uncle Bobs’ or ‘Cousin Larrys’ to help spread divisive messages on your social media feed. It seems that China’s Sun Tzu was on to something here.
FINGER POINTING OLYMPICS: The horrific terror attack at a Moscow concert hall last week launched countless conspiracy theories – with every Vlad, Dick and Harry rolling out explanations of how the murderous assault could have happened and who was behind it. ISIS-Khorsan says “We did it! It was us!” and U.S. intelligence reportedly agrees. But Russian President Vladimir Putin was quick to drop hints that the perpetrators were really working for Ukraine and were captured on their way to that embattled country where “a window had been left open” for them. Former CIA officer (and current Cipher Brief expert) Mark Polymeropoulos was quoted in The Hill as saying that Putin casting blame on Ukraine was “nonsense” and suggested the assertion might be intended to deflect attention from the incompetence of Russian security forces. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials declared that the claim had “nothing in common with reality.” Others darkly suggested that perhaps the attack was planned by the Kremlin. A British colonel with the wonderful name Hamish de Bretton-Gordon told The Sun newspaper that the attack had all “the hallmarks of Russian false flag attacks.” Word that the U.S. had previously warned the Russians – and the public to stay away from large public gatherings due to terror threats added fuel to the fire that suggested that perhaps the Russians had a reason to ignore the warnings. Another Cipher Brief expert, Glenn Corn has an excellent and quite detailed piece which ends with this advice: “Russian citizens should understand that, at the end of the day, there are two parties responsible for the murder of the victims of the Crocus City Hall attack – ISIS-K and their own President.”
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! Russia media watcher Julia Davis provided clips of Russian TV talking head Vladimir Solovyov saying that because the U.S. and U.K. warned that an attack might happen, they must have been behind it. And then there was Scott Ritter, ex-con and former UN weapons inspector – who told Russia’s Sputnik International: “If this was something planned by Ukraine, then it means it was something planned by Ukraine under the director of the CIA to carry out an American policy objective, which seeks the strategic defeat of Russia.” What a dufus.
GLAD THEY DIDN’T TAKE IT PERSONALLY: French President Emmanuel Macron has been taking a considerably hardened stance recently about his country possibly providing increased support to Ukraine. In a press conference on February 26th, Macron created a stir by saying that future Western troop deployments to Ukraine are a possibility. Several fellow NATO nations such as Estonia and the Netherlands agreed that nothing should be ruled out. That kind of commentary did not go down well in Russia, however. Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) was quoted in the Moscow Times saying that France was in fact planning on sending 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine, and if they did so, they would be a legitimate target of Russian forces if they “ever come to the territory of the Russian world with a sword.” Apparently, Naryshkin views Ukraine as “territory in the Russian world.” The French defense ministry on the other hand said Naryshkin’s remark “illustrates Russian’s systematic use of disinformation” and that the government of France considers “this type of provocation irresponsible.” Then on Tuesday of this week, Macron laid out five scenarios under which France might send troops to Ukraine – ranging from setting up weapons production and maintenance factories, training Ukrainian troops, protecting Odesa, establishing buffer zones and, at the extreme end, direct involvement in the war and participation in “trench warfare.” The French have had a beef with the Russians going back to 1812 which, as you may remember, did not work out well for Napoleon’s troops. This was memorialized by Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture. Perhaps Macron thinks it is time to even the score.
WE TOLD YA SO: Back in December, former CIA officer Ken Westbrook, who now runs an organization called “Stop Scams Alliance,” wrote a piece for The Cipher Brief asserting that foreign criminals are scamming Americans out of billions of dollars and saying that beyond personal tragedies – these actions also amount to a national security threat. This week, former CIA and FBI Director Judge William Webster and his wife Lynda had a piece in The Washington Post noting that new FBI figures show that fraud losses in the U.S. have increased nearly 15-fold over the past ten years. The Websters observed that artificial intelligence will turbocharge fraud and current FBI Director Christopher Wray seems to agree. The Websters OPED says that Britain has launched a major fraud-fighting initiative recently and that effort appears to be having a positive impact – as opposed to the U.S. where fraud losses keep climbing. Speaking of climbing, William Webster celebrated his 100th birthday earlier this month. Happy Birthday, Judge.
SPEAKING OF BIRTHDAYS: General Michael Hayden (Ret.) celebrated a milestone this month as well. Happy Birthday, General!
SHAMELESS (SELF-PROMOTION): What’s happening at The Cipher Brief:
AN HONORABLE BLACK-TIE AFFAIR: The Cipher Brief is planning quite the evening on Thursday, May 2 as it honors a national security celebrity list of who’s who for its first-ever HONORS Dinner. On the list of recipients of those “who have made significant contributions to the national and global security dialogue over the years” are CIA Director William Burns for his leadership in intelligence and diplomacy, former Principal Deputy Director for National Intelligence Susan Gordon for her inspiration both in and out of government and her focus on the importance of the private sector in addressing national and global security issues. They are also honoring Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Oksana Markarova with the Messenger of Freedom Award for her efforts to maintain the strong relationship between Ukraine and the United States. (she probably deserves two awards just for that alone). They are also honoring award-winning National Security Columnist Walter Pincus for his decades – many of them at The Washington Post and then later, at The Cipher Brief – of shedding light on national security issues that date back to the oval office of President John F. Kennedy. And understanding that many of us shape our beliefs through stories, The Cipher Brief is honoring Hollywood Executive Producer and Showrunner Howard Gordon, for his painstaking attention to the ways in which difficult issues are portrayed in television shows like ‘24’ starring Kiefer Sutherland and ‘Homeland’ starring Claire Danes. Others in the crowd will include presenters like former CIA and NSA Director General Michael Hayden (Ret.) and former CIA Director George Tenet. You can book a seat or a table here and make sure you can still fit into your tux.
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
THEY’RE GETTING THE BAND (OF BROTHERS) BACK TOGETHER AGAIN: Time to trade in the tux for a flight suit. You may remember the HBO mini-series “Band of Brothers” (which was based on Stephen Ambrose’s bestselling book of the same title.) The mini-series first aired in 2001 and followed the exploits of ‘Easy’ Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, of the 101st Airborne Division in World War II – from training, to D-Day and fighting their way into Nazi Germany. The critically acclaimed series created by Tom Hanks and Stephen Spielberg was a hit two decades ago. Now, about a dozen actors who appeared in the series are taking airborne training so they can parachute into Normandy as part of the 80th anniversary of D-Day events in June. The airborne actors will face far less opposition than the real members of Easy Company dealt with parachuting into Europe 80 years ago – but most of these actors now are quite a bit older than the Easy Company soldiers of 1944 – so we wish them soft landings.
AS YOUR JUMP MASTER, WE ARE GIVING YOU THE GREEN LIGHT TO SEND YOUR BEST NEWS TIPS TO THE DEAD DROP ZONE TheDeadDrop@theCipherBrief.com
