OUT WITH THE FACTS — After first being launched in 1962, the CIA’s World Factbook is no more. As the agency described on its website, the World Factbook was “one of CIA’s oldest and most recognizable intelligence publications” that “served the Intelligence Community and the general public as a longstanding, one-stop basic reference about countries and communities around the globe.” The CIA gave no reason for its decision to end the World Factbook in its announcement, only saying that the product “has sunset.” In his confirmation hearing last year, CIA Director John Ratcliffe vowed to end programs that don’t advance the agency’s core missions, so it’s possible he and other agency leadership assessed the World Factbook was a non-essential product. But that’s not a fact - it’s just a guess.
D/CIA, YOU’VE GOT MAIL! Senator Ron Wyden, (D,OR) a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence posted a letter on his website Wednesday addressed to CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The letter, oddly, says in its entirety “I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter.” Intelligence Community and Hill veterans tell us that this is a very unusual way of doing business. What does it mean? We have no idea. If you know – send us a letter. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
BALLROOM BLITZ: The Justice Department is invoking national security to prevent a judge from halting construction on President Trump's controversial White House ballroom, arguing that stopping work would create security risks at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The Washington Examiner says that in a Monday filing, DOJ told U.S. District Judge Richard Leon that the East Wing modernization project is "imperative for reasons of national security" and promised a classified declaration explaining why a partially demolished ballroom wing somehow threatens America. The Secret Service claims the open construction site is a security hazard (though you’d think this is something that was considered BEFORE knocking down the East Wing). The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued the administration under a 1912 law requiring congressional approval for federal construction. The administration's defense: maybe that law doesn't apply to presidents who fund work through private donations, a constitutional theory that Judge Leon called a "Rube Goldberg contraption." Our take: nothing says "urgent national security imperative" quite like a ballroom.
OUTLANDISH SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS: Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite in this Sunday’s Super Bowl. You could put a few bucks on the game and if your team wins - maybe cover next month’s streaming subscriptions. Or you could skip the sports book and head to an event-prediction site like Polymarket, where the real action is geopolitical. When we checked the site on Wednesday morning one betting option was whether the U.S. will strike Iran by February 13. A “yes” share at the time was trading at about 10 cents. So, what do the headlines say? (This is a great reason - if we say so ourselves - to subscribe to The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Report - sorry, couldn’t help it!) Well, the U.S. and Iran may meeting this week to discuss U.S. demands. Fair warning: betting on diplomacy succeeding with Iran is generally a fool’s game. Even so, why could bombs also start dropping soon? Well, the U.S. has what President Trump refers to as an “armada” surrounding Iran and patience is not his long suit. Also, the President is reportedly less than thrilled about the Super Bowl halftime show—headlined by Bad Bunny. And in an era when eyeballs are among the most precious commodities on Earth, a well-timed kinetic event just before halftime to pull attention from the game doesn’t sound entirely outside the realm of modern strategic thinking. Call it the weirdest Super Bowl prop bet you’ve ever seen. But we’re betting some people in the administration decide that Sunday night might be a good time to throw a few long bombs. Trump is set to sit down this week for a pre-taped interview with NBC anchor Tom Llamas which will air during the Super Bowl’s pre-game show. So we figure Iran may be safe until halftime.
YOU’LL NEVER GUESS WHAT WE FOUND IN THE LATEST EPSTEIN DOCUMENT DUMP - The Cipher Brief. No, thankfully there are no invitations to island getaways or dinner parties with the former prince currently known as Mr. Mountbatten-Windsor. But for reasons we don’t entirely understand, the 3.5 million documents released on Friday include news summaries that had been produced for senior executives at places like the FBI or intelligence community inspector general offices. And if you search the archives, buried in some of those news summaries are snippets of Cipher Brief opinion pieces (totally unrelated to Epstein.) The Cipher Brief is routinely cited as a ‘must read’ for intelligence professionals, and has been cited in Congressional hearings and credited by television news analysts as being their best source of information, but this was new to us. And here’s an interesting side note – the news clipping services that the government used to disseminate seem to no longer be produced. We’ve heard that the current administration is less interested than its predecessors in following what’s often called the main stream media – but we don’t know if outfits like the FBI and IC IGs have found some other way to keep up with current events. Maybe all their people just subscribe to The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Report now.
TILTING AT WINDMILLS – PENTAGON STYLE: You may remember that in late December, the Trump administration suspended construction on five major offshore wind projects along the East Coast citing classified national security concerns. This next item blew right past us, but shortly thereafter, the ranking member of the House Armed Service Committee Seapower subcommittee, Rep. Joe Courtney (D, CT), asked DOD exactly how wind turbines were a danger to national security. The Hartford Currant says that the Pentagon wrote back saying that while they respect the HASC’s oversight responsibilities –their spin was that they are unable to discuss the matter and punted to the Department of the Interior.
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