Trumping Trade: The Future of NAFTA
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has stitched the economies of Mexico, Canada, and the United States together since 1994. However, over those twenty-plus […] More
Fritz Lodge
A Cipher Brief Update: Will the Turkey-Russia Thaw Endure?
Police in Turkey have detained six people following the killing of Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov. State media reports that the attacker’s mother, father, sister and […] More
Italy’s Choice: Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t
On Sunday, Italians definitively voted “No” to a constitutional referendum supported by the country’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. After the vote, in which nearly 60 […] More
China's Economy: Great Power, Great Responsibility
For roughly 30 years, China’s “economic miracle” has catapulted the once-impoverished country from relative backwater to global economic juggernaut. Driven by export-led growth and massive […] More
Sisi, the IMF, and Egypt's Crumbling Economy
When the Arab Spring reached Egypt in January 2011, sparking unprecedented mass protests in Tahrir Square and across the country, calls for democratic reform and […] More
The State of Play in Syria
Amid the dizzying array of jihadist groups, rebel militias, umbrella opposition alliances, and state-level actors either directly or indirectly involved in Syria’s conflict, it can […] More
The Price of Turkish Posturing in Iraq
As Iraqi Army forces enter Mosul proper and anti-ISIS coalition forces encircle the city, the complex and bloody operation to safely wrest a city of […] More
Corralling the Cartel: OPEC and Oil Prices
Since oil prices plummeted in the last quarter of 2014, oil-producing countries have struggled to adapt to the new low-price environment. From reforms to slashed […] More
In the Strait of Hormuz, Little has Changed with Iran
When the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed in July 2015, you might have been forgiven for […] More
War and Peace: Syria and the Question of American Intervention
On July 4 1821, John Quincy Adams gave an historic address to Congress, in which he stated that, while America may support the cause of […] More
Nuclear No First Use: Ambiguity vs. Clarity
In a Presidential race dominated by immigration, trade, and an almost unprecedented level of political mudslinging, one could be forgiven for missing moderator Lester Holt’s […] More
Dollars and Sense: Military Spending During an Economic Downturn
The relationship between military spending and GDP growth in peacetime seems an easy equation. When a country’s economy is healthy and growing, it can splurge […] More
Unease, Uncertainty, and Strife: Global Inequality and Instability
At his final United Nations address on Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama focused much of his time on what he called “the paradox that defines […] More
Turkish Leverage Over the United States and European Union
Since its birth, modern Turkey has occupied a delicate position in the world. Straddling both Asia and Europe, the ancient Ottoman capital of Istanbul captures […] More
The Post-9/11 U.S. Intelligence Community
Fifteen years ago, 19 hijackers and four planes shattered American illusions of security. An outside attack seemed remote to most Americans, and there appeared to […] More
America and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
Shortly after arriving at the G20 economic summit in Hangzhou China last week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada would join a long […] More
Tunisia: From Revolution to Governance
Today, Tunisia’s Parliament meets to hold a vote of confidence in the new unity government of Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. In a moment that seems […] More
Finding Water in the Desert: Water Security in the Middle East
In 1979, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat said that “the only matter which could take Egypt to war again is water.” That war may not have […] More