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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

That Other Nuclear Nightmare: North Korea Sounds New Alarms

Experts say a whole new approach is needed to deal with Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal

Man in a fur hat speaks at a podium with microphones, North Korean flag in the background.

DEEP DIVE – As the U.S. grapples with the still-unsolved problem of Iran’s nuclear program, another American adversary is expanding its nuclear [...] More

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The Open Source Report

QESHM ISLAND, IRAN - APRIL 28: The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker boat navigates the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's latest proposal for ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz calls on the United States to end its naval blockade of Iran's ports, and sets aside questions about what to do with Iran's nuclear program. The United States has not formally responded to the latest proposal, which was delivered by Iran's foreign minister to Pakistan two days ago. (Photo by Asghar Besharati/Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, May 4, 2026

Iran vows response after Trump unveils U.S. initiative to "guide" ships out of Strait of Hormuz

Trump orders expanded U.S. troop withdrawal from Germany, raising NATO concerns

China orders firms to defy U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil trade, escalating legal clash

Pentagon, major U.S. AI firms reach agreements on product use in classified systems


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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Why Abu Dhabi Walked Away from OPEC After Nearly 60 Years

Chip Usher

OPINION – When UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei announced Tuesday that Abu Dhabi is leaving OPEC – a cartel it has been a member of since 1967 – he called it a “pure policy change” and a “policy-driven evolution [...] More

Britain’s Antisemitism Crisis Is Now a National Security Threat

Nick Fishwick

There has been yet another terrorist attack targeting Britain’s Jewish community. This time, two Jewish men were stabbed on Wednesday in Golders Green, London - a leading center of Jewish life and culture in the UK. The [...] More

News & Analysis

Woman speaking at podium with Mexican seal, flag, and artwork in background.

CIA Deaths Expose Fragile U.S.-Mexico Security Ties

Around two o’clock in the morning of April 19, an SUV veered off a twisting dirt road in a remote corner of the Sierra Madre, plunged into a ravine [...] More

Opinion

Human vs. Machine: Operational Realities from Ukraine’s Frontline

OPINION – A global debate is underway over how much human involvement should be required when artificial intelligence is implemented in military [...] More

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UNSURE ABOUT THAT ASSESSMENT: Reuters has an exclusive get, reporting that U.S. intelligence agencies have been tasked by senior administration officials with assessing how Iran would respond if President Trump simply declared unilateral victory in the two-month-old war and ended it. The assignment was said to be partly driven by concern that a grinding conflict could cost Republicans at the midterms. This would presumably be a different declaration of victory than the several Trump has already issued. Reuters says that the IC ran this same exercise in February and concluded that Iran would likely interpret a U.S. victory [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

What does “success” look like in a conflict with Iran - and what comes next? In this in-depth conversation, General David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief’s Suzanne Kelly to unpack the military and strategic realities shaping today’s most consequential conflicts. From the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the unresolved risks around Iran’s nuclear program, Petraeus explains what’s at stake not just for the U.S., but for the global economy. But the real story? Ukraine. Petraeus calls it the true test case for the future of war - where drones, autonomy, and rapid innovation are redefining the battlefield in real time.