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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

An argument for why America must rethink everything to remain competitive

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen
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The Open Source Report

UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR First responders operate at a residential building partially destroyed as a result of Russian missile strikes in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on July 30, 2026, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Officials in Ukraine's eastern Poltava region, meanwhile, said one person was killed in a drone strike on a warehouse, while at least 15 people were wounded in attacks on the western city of Lviv. Russia launched 74 missiles and 284 drones at Ukraine last night, according to Kyiv on July 30, 2026. (Photo by YURIY DYACHYSHYN / AFP via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, July 30, 2026

Poland’s Tusk says ‘everything indicates’ Russian cruise missile hit Lublin region amid mass attacks on Ukraine

U.S. military strikes dozens of Iranian targets as war engulfs more countries across Middle East

Chinese satellite imagery analysis challenges U.S.-Iran war claims

Russia importing sensitive UK, EU tech through India, data shows

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

America Needs a New North Korea Strategy

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani

North Korea is strategically closer to Russia and China than any time since the Korean War, while the U.S. does nothing to challenge the growing power of the Axis of Authoritarians (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea). [...] More

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
Opinion

What Congress Found Inside the Iran War Spending Bill

Walter Pincus

“You sir [Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth] are the failure. Not the men and women [in military service] who are on that front line [in the Middle East]. Not the men and women who hold up their honor with distinction. But [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
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News & Analysis

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-WAGNER

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

Opinion

Winning the Peace: The Democratic Dilemma of Limited War

Dr. John Bruni

Winning the Peace: The Democratic Dilemma of Limited War

In our previous article, we argued that overwhelming military superiority no longer guarantees strategic success.Today, military and political [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

When Doomsday Prose Overplays Its Hand
When Doomsday Prose Overplays Its Hand

Five Moles, One DOJ Lawyer
Five Moles, One DOJ Lawyer

Silva's Ransom Pays Off
Silva's Ransom Pays Off

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The Best National Security Gossip

DON’T YOU HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS? It used to be that embarrassing mistakes that popped up during public presentations just kinda got forgotten about, eventually. But not in a world full of social media. Our case in point: a presentation by the State Department at a global conference on AIDS in Brazil this week turned rather awkward when a slide showing a map of Africa that was included in a State Department presentation listed highlighted countries that were all mislabeled. (Looks like someone wasn’t paying attention in geography class.) If we’re honest, we’ve all mislabeled a country or two on a map but conference [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare.

Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever.

From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.