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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

An argument for why America must rethink everything to remain competitive

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

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The Open Source Report

 OMAN-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-MARINE-SHIPPING The Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier vessel Manta Ursula is pictured moored in Muscat on July 25, 2026. An incident involving a tanker and unspecified military forces was reported on July 25 near the Strait of Hormuz waterway, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations monitor. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images) /

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, July 27, 2026

Iran says it will halt strikes as long as U.S. bombing pause holds

Iranian threat to Air Force One prompted plane swap during NATO summit

Zelensky accuses Russia of assisting Iran with satellite imagery of U.S. bases in Middle East

OpenAI failed to notice its rogue AI agent hacking another firm for a week, sources say

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

Is Iran Controlling the Gulf Conflict?

Recent statements from President Trump indicate he is prepared to continue, or escalate, U.S. military strikes while simultaneously signaling he is open to continued negotiations. Some would see this as a reasonable offer [...] More

Opinion

The $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Without a Strategy

“This is not at all a strategy-driven [FY 2027 defense] budget. This is a budget-driven budget. If you look at the Truth Social posts by the President [Trump] and the statements of the people around him, he [President [...] More

News & Analysis

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The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

Opinion

The Audience Is a Machine: Our Future Information Environment

The future of disinformation is no longer about creating better content. It is about teaching machines what to retrieve, summarize and recommend. In [...] More

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Book Reviews

FROM RUSSIA, WITH TARGETING DATA? Reuters reports that U.S. intelligence agencies are now investigating whether Russia quietly helped Tehran improve the accuracy of drone strikes leveled against covert CIA facilities in the Gulf by providing targeting information, satellite-navigation technology or other technical assistance. Officials emphasized they have reached no conclusions, but the precision of the attacks is eyebrow-raising. An inquiry was launched after not one - but two Iranian drone attacks targeting the U.S. Embassy compound in Riyadh in March, where the CIA maintained (until then) a covert presence. According [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Speaking on the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance’s most urgent challenges, from Europe’s push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance’s principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.