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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

Inside Iran’s New Wartime Leadership

Months of assassinations have hollowed out Iran’s old leadership and elevated a new generation of IRGC power brokers, as Tehran struggles to dispel questions about Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and ability to govern.

Iranians Commemorate The Death Of Imam Reza

Tehran’s new power brokersA wave of assassinations rebuilt Iran’s leadership from the top down, leaving a severely wounded supreme leader and a [...] More

Middle East Iran
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The Open Source Report

US-POLITICS-TRUMP US President Donald Trump steps off Air Force One upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on August 16, 2026. President Trump is returning to Washington, DC, after spending the weekend at his golf club in New Jersey. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Trump threatens to bomb ally Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ of U.S.-Iran negotiations

Washington-Seoul ties strained as Trump says North Korea's Kim has responded to his overtures

Russia cancels major Red Square military jamboree as Ukraine fires nearly 800 drones in massive attack

U.S. Space Force brings 5 companies on-board Space Data Network

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

It is in the U.S. interest to Support Democratic Legitimacy in Venezuela

Ambassador Patrick Duddy

The Trump administration’s response to the catastrophic earthquakes that hit Venezuela seven weeks ago was impressive: timely, massive and appropriate. This should reassure those who worried that the administration’s [...] More

Opinion

It’s Time For The President To Level With The American People on Iran

Mark Fowler

The U.S. administration’s strategic expectations are increasingly colliding with a set of hard realities. While Iran has taken a considerable beating, it remains standing and does not appear on the verge of either [...] More

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News & Analysis

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian

Opinion

Open-Source Intel Makes U.S. Troops an Easier Target for Iran

Ari Ben Am

Open-Source Intel Makes U.S. Troops an Easier Target for Iran

Iran is reading American service members’ social media feeds to deadly effect. The fact is that not all intelligence must be gleaned from secret, [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

Terror's First Celebrity
Terror's First Celebrity

Technology Has Not Replaced Geography and Human Judgment
Technology Has Not Replaced Geography and Human Judgment

Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience
Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience

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The Best National Security Gossip

ESPIONAGE ON THE HORIZZEN: Reportedly, a small Brisbane consultancy called Horizzen had a few domestic clients, no interest in expanding, and no plans to hire anyone in the U.S. That didn't stop applications pouring in. Starting mid-2025, according to the Guardian, Horizzen fielded calls and applications from strangers touting defense and security credentials for jobs the firm never posted. Turns out someone had cloned the company’s name, logo, and website into a fake "international consultancy" advertising defense, trade, and politics roles. It wasn't alone. The FBI seized 13 such domains back in June with the assistance [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly for a wide-ranging conversation about the wars reshaping the global security landscape — and why the United States needs to fundamentally rethink how it prepares for the conflicts of the future.

From the war with Iran and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine to China’s military calculations over Taiwan, Petraeus explains how drones, autonomous weapons and rapidly changing battlefield technology are transforming warfare faster than many military institutions can adapt.

On Iran, Petraeus examines whether there is a realistic path to ending the conflict, why maintaining economic and maritime pressure on Tehran matters, and how Iran’s missiles and drones have changed the threat to U.S. forces, regional partners and some of the world’s most critical energy infrastructure.

He also warns against believing the United States can simply disengage from the region.

“Trying to leave the Middle East for the United States is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia,” Petraeus says. “You just keep getting sucked back in.”