On Saturday, North Korea announced it was suspending nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing, ahead of this week’s summit with South Korea and ahead of a planned summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in June. Cipher Brief expert Amb. Joseph DeTrani, former envoy to the Six Party Talks, gave his take, adapted here for print.
“This is very significant. It starts with Kim Jong Un’s decision to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics and his outreach first to South Korea, and then outreach to the U.S. for summits with the respective leaders. KJU seemingly decided that he has proven to have a formidable nuclear and missile arsenal and now he has to break out of his self-imposed isolation and focus on a failed and fragile economy.
“This is his decision, apparently motivated by his philosophy and possibly some domestic pressure and internal realities. Sanctions and intimidating joint military exercises probably also pushed him in this direction. Indeed, this also was KJU’s commitment to his people when he memorialized the Byongjin policy approach — simultaneous nuclear and economic development — in the state constitution. He’s now saying I did the nuclear, and now I have to focus on economic development.
“The Moon Jae-in government in the Republic of Korea and its liberal philosophy has facilitated this decision. President Donald Trump and his willingness to directly meet with KJU also contributed to this historic decision to unilaterally stop any further nuclear tests and missile launches. This is great news.
“This positive development doesn’t mean KJU is prepared to comprehensively denuclearize. It means he believes he has a formidable so-called nuclear deterrent and will continue to push for acceptance as a nuclear weapons state, similar to how the U.S. dealt with Pakistan.”
