1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 10, 2023
Today's Editor: Brad Christian
Daily national security briefings aren't just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here's what's happening now:
TOP STORIES
US vetoes UN Security Council demand for ceasefire in Gaza. The U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on December 8, 2023. The resolution, which was supported by 13 of the 15 council members, called for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The U.K abstained from the vote. The US veto drew immediate criticism from the international community, with the United Arab Emirates, which introduced the resolution, saying that the US veto was "a terrible day for the people of Gaza'' and that it would "prolong the suffering of civilians." Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the U.S. was now “alone” in its ongoing support for the operations in Gaza. The US ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood, defended the U.S. move, saying the resolution was "unbalanced" and would not have led to a sustainable ceasefire. He also said that the US supported pauses in the fighting to protect civilians and allow the release of hostages taken by Hamas in a deadly attack on Israel in October. The release of hostages is also a key requirement from Israel in order to consider a ceasefire. The US veto is the latest sign of the growing rift between Washington and its allies over Israel's policies in Gaza with many of the U.S.’ allies growing increasingly critical of Israel's use of force and its blockade of Gaza. Reuters NY Times Reuters
China, Philippines trade blame on collision between ships as tensions rise in South China Sea. Chinese coast guard ships blasted water cannons at Philippine boats at least eight times near Scarborough Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea, on December 9, 2023. The incident, which included a collision between the two sides, occurred as three Philippine vessels were conducting a resupply mission to Filipino fishermen in the area. The Philippines condemned China's actions as "illegal and aggressive” and the US ambassador to the Philippines, MaryKay Carlson, called China's actions "aggressive and illegal," and said the US stands with the Philippines. China’s coast guard said it implemented what it called ‘control measures’ against the Philippines vessels and added that the boats were illegally intruding into waters around Scarborough Shoal, it said. The incident is the latest between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims most of as its territory, despite competing claims from several other countries, including the Philippines. The US has recently taken a more active role in the South China Sea in recent years, in a bid to counter China's growing assertiveness in the region. The Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post Reuters
U.S., Japan, and South Korea Agree to Initiatives to Face North Korean Cyber Treat. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced Saturday that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have agreed to new initiatives to combat the present North Korean cyber threat. In a meeting that served as a follow-up to the August Camp David trilateral summit, the three nations agreed to new efforts to counter the “cybercrime and cryptocurrency money laundering” that fund the North Korean nuclear program, according to Sullivan. Using the supply-chain early warning system agreed to in August, the three nations will also work to identify and target attempts at economic coercion. In another display of collaboration, Sullivan and his South Korean counterpart, Cho Tae-yong, also hosted a forum to discuss international cooperation of chips and other critical technologies on Saturday. North Korean news organizations reported on Saturday the nation's intentions to launch new spy satellite technology soon. The DPRK has come under international scrutiny for its use of cybercrime and cryptocurrency thefts. North Korea has denied all allegations of cyberattacks. Reuters
European Union agrees on landmark AI regulation deal. The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement on comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI) legislation, claiming it as the world's first. The deal aims to regulate AI technologies, including generative AI tools and government use of AI in biometric surveillance. The agreement, when finalized, is expected to set global standards with provisions for transparency, safeguards, and penalties for non-compliance, including fines up to €35 million or 7% of a company's global revenue. This legislation is poised to become effective by 2025. Reuters NY Times Deutsche Welle
ISRAELI WAR AGAINST HAMAS
State Department Bi-passes Congressional Approval with Emergency Sale of Ammunition to Israel. The State Department has invoked an emergency clause to bypass Congressional approval on foreign arms sales. It marks the first time that the Biden administration has used the emergency provision to send ammunition to the Middle East, but the U.S. has used the authority twice since 2022 to send arms to Ukraine. The sale is not included in Biden’s $110.5 billion supplemental request for funding for both Israel and Ukraine, which is currently stalled in congress.. The sale comes amid growing criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, as well as growing criticism of U.S. support for Israel. Reuters CNN
RUSSIAN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE
Kyiv Expects F-16 Delivery “Soon” While Aid Stalls in Congress. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has stated that Ukraine expects delivery of F-16 fighter jets “soon,” saying preparations were underway to receive the jets. This comes after Biden’s warning to Congress that failure to support Ukraine would result in a loss of “national treasure and in American blood.” Kyiv continues to request aircraft from allies to combat the Russian air force. On Friday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby pleaded for Republican lawmaker approval, saying that a continued debate would be “a great gift” to Putin. Kirby argued that supporting Ukraine was a matter of national security, stating that keeping Russia off the “doorstep of NATO” was a top priority. Republican lawmakers have said that they will continue to stall proceedings until Democrats agree to an increase in immigration restrictions. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his government would continue to provide Ukraine with support, while Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska warned that her country would be in “mortal danger” should the West cut back on aid. RFE/RF Politico
Ukraine Condemns Russian Plan to Hold Elections in Occupied Territory. Ukraine strongly condemned Russia’s plan to hold presidential elections in occupied Ukrainian territory next year. Russia’s upper house declared that residents in the occupied territories would be able to vote for the Russian president in March. While it does not exert full control over the regions, Russia has claimed to have annexed the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson regions, a move the Ukrainian foreign minister has called on the international community to condemn. Ukraine has also warned that any country that sends observers to the “pseudo-elections” will “face criminal responsibility.” Reuters
Should Ukraine hold presidential elections amid Russia war? As Ukraine faces a full-scale Russian invasion and the ongoing fight to liberate its eastern territories from Russian occupation, there is debate over whether the country should hold a presidential election in March when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's term ends. The conflict triggered martial law, which suspended elections. While the Ukrainian public broadly supports postponing elections, some politicians, including members of Zelenskyy's government, have debated the issue. Public opinion, reflected in polls, indicates that the majority favors delaying elections until after the war. Civil society groups and 100 non-governmental organizations have also opposed wartime elections, citing challenges such as the impossibility of ensuring full participation, the potential lack of political competition and security. Other concerns, including the vulnerability of the electronic voting system to Russian hacking, further contribute to the debate. Russia's interest in questioning Ukraine's democratic credentials adds complexity, while conservative lawmakers in the United States, such as Senator Lindsey Graham (R. SC), advocate for elections. President Zelenskyy, despite potential electoral success, has taken a stand against elections during wartime, emphasizing the need for defense and battle. Al Jazeera
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
U.N. Set To Hold an Emergency Meeting at Guyana’s Request. The U.N. Security Council will hold an emergency meeting at the request of Guyana’s foreign minister, Hugh Hilton Todd to discuss Venezuela’s recent claims of sovereignty over the Essequibo region, which accounts for two-thirds of Guyana. Venezuela has always considered Essequibo to be its own, as it was within its boundaries during the Spanish colonial period and has challenged the ruling that set the border in 1962. The diplomatic fight between Guyana and Venezuela intensified after ExxonMobil announced the region contained vast amounts of oil off its coast in 2015. Guyanan President Irfaan Ali accused Venezuela of “flagrant violations” of the International Court of Justice ruling last week that prohibited Venezuela from taking any action in the region as Venezuelan President Nicolas Madura has ordered the immediate exploration and exploitation of oil, gas, and mines in the region. Venezuela asked Guyana to resume dialogue and leave aside its “erratic, threatening, and risky conduct.” Associated Press
U.S. and Mexico Agree to Monitor Foreign Investment. With increasing concern over the amount of Chinese money flowing into Mexico, U.S. and Mexican officials agreed on Thursday to monitor and share information regarding foreign investment in their respective nations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in Mexico City that the U.S. and Mexico wished to deepen their economic relationship with regard to supply chain resilience and investment screening. Thursday’s agreement will also allow Mexico to renegotiate remittance costs. The U.S. wishes to limit the amount of potentially sensitive technology China could access through a trade agreement with Mexico to preserve national security. While the U.S. remains its largest trading partner, China has become Mexico’s largest source of foreign investment in recent years. When asked about this new agreement, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated it was not the U.S. asking countries to “choose between the United States and China” but that the U.S. wanted to provide a more transparent and reliable form of foreign investment than “other nations.” Though the November meeting of Biden and Xi Jinping reestablished military connections and worked towards ending fentanyl trafficking, economic tensions between the U.S. and China remain high. Associated Press-
Dutch Police Arrest a Syrian Man Accused of Sexual Violence in Syria’s Civil War. Dutch police arrested a 55-year-old Syrian refugee and charged him with sexual violence as a crime against humanity for acts committed when he was allegedly head of the interrogation department of the National Defense Force (NDF), a militia aligned with Syrian President Bashar Assad. He was granted asylum in the Netherlands in 2021 but was tracked down after receiving a tip that his name resembled one of a former NDF chief interrogator. He is the latest suspect charged with crimes committed during Syria’s civil war in the Netherlands under universal jurisdiction that allows the Netherlands to prosecute crimes that were committed abroad. The Netherlands has accused Assad’s administration of “institutionalized” torture against its own people in the top court of the U.N. Associated Press
Taiwan intelligence says Senior Chinese officials met to plan Taiwan election interference. In early December, senior Chinese leaders, including Wang Huning, the fourth-ranked leader of the Chinese Communist Party, reportedly held a meeting in Beijing to "coordinate" government efforts aimed at influencing the upcoming elections in Taiwan. Taiwan officials have warned of Beijing's attempts to sway voters toward candidates favoring closer ties with China in the January 13 presidential and legislative election. Taiwanese security officials told reporters that the meeting discussed ensuring the effectiveness and coordination of various efforts related to the Taiwan elections, with Chinese groups like the Publicity Department and the psychological warfare unit "Base 311" planning influence campaigns through news outlets and social media. China's Taiwan Affairs Office and the United Front Work Department were assigned outreach programs involving exchange activities with Taiwanese politicians and discounted air tickets for Taiwanese voters. The meeting also emphasized adjusting the pace of campaigns to avoid obvious interference. The Taiwanese government is on high alert, viewing China's attempts as illicit funding, group tours, and misinformation campaigns supporting Beijing-friendly candidates. Reuters
North Korea Claims It Will Soon Launch New Spy Satellites. North Korea is eager to launch new spy satellite technology, according to state-sponsored news agency KCNA. The new satellites are reportedly modeled after the Malligyong-1 satellite launched in November. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea all denounced the launching of the Malligyong-1, calling it a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. The KCNA made separate comments this week criticizing South Korea’s support of Ukraine as a “top-class pro-U.S.” move. North Korea has previously been criticized for supplying Russia with ammunition in exchange for military funding. Reuters
CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Top White House cyber official says recent Iran hack on water system is a wake up call. The top White House cyber official said last week that recent hacks into U.S. water systems and across the healthcare industry by Iranian-linked groups should be a wake up call. Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger said in an interview that while the attacks by the cyber group Av3ngers were “unsophisticated” and caused “minimal impact”, they are evident of a persistent and capable threat to U.S. businesses and critical infrastructure. Neuberger reiterated calls for improved “digital security” and following basic cyber safety practices. U.S. and Israeli officials believe the hackers are connected to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Associated Press
China claims technological leap in rail gun development. Chinese navy engineers claim to have developed an electromagnetic rail gun that can fire multiple projectiles without sustaining damage. The researchers say that the development surpasses the US, which abandoned its own rail gun development program in 2021. The breakthrough weapon reportedly demonstrated continuous firing with remarkable accuracy, shooting shells at 2 km per second. In tests, the rail gun fired 120 rounds without system damage. This development, according to the author of the report, positions China ahead in global electromagnetic rail launch systems. The success is partly attributed to a sophisticated measurement and diagnostic system with AI capabilities, analyzing data from over 100,000 component points simultaneously. China's rail gun ambitions extend to challenging American naval dominance, with Chinese researchers suggesting ranges beyond 200 km. The researchers envision broader applications, including the possibility of using the technology for high-speed trains and space travel. South China Morning Post
ANALYSIS - The U.S. Government’s Most Powerful Spying Tool Is Fighting for Its Life. Dustin Volz of the Wall Street Journal is out with a lengthy piece that examines the ongoing debate on the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Section 702, which will expire on Dec 31, 2023 unless it is renewed, is a key surveillance provision and one of the most powerful tools used by U.S. spy agencies. More than half of the intelligence in the president’s daily brief reportedly comes from collection efforts made possible by Section 702. But both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are pushing for changes to curb potential abuses of the tool by the FBI. A bipartisan legislative effort led by privacy advocates, including Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.), proposes a four-year renewal of Section 702 but with the addition of stringent new safeguards. The proposed changes include the requirement for U.S. agencies, including the FBI, to obtain judicial approval before conducting content searches related to Americans. In contrast, a separate bill from the leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senators Warner and Rubio, calls for more moderate changes to the FBI's access to Section 702, avoiding the creation of a generalized warrant requirement. In the House of Representatives things are a bit more uncertain, with conflicting bipartisan bills. One bill aims to preserve the FBI's warrantless access to U.S. data, while the other seeks to essentially eliminate such access. FBI Director Wray has consistently urged against restricting the FBI's ability to search data obtained through Section 702, emphasizing its indispensability in addressing foreign threats to the U.S. Wray warned that stripping the FBI of its Section 702 authorities would amount to a form of unilateral disarmament. Wall Street Journal
US Army plans reorganization of signals intelligence capabilities. The U.S. Army plans to consolidate existing signals-intelligence technologies under a program of record, known as the Theater SIGINT System (TSIGS), by fiscal year 2025. The TSIGS, currently comprised of products developed and in use to address urgent concerns, aims for a more cohesive and sustainable approach. Ken Strayer, a project manager at the Program Executive Office for Intelligence, Electronic Warfare, and Sensors (PEO IEW&S), highlighted that these systems, initially deployed as quick-reaction capabilities, provide theater intelligence collection support. The move aligns with the U.S. Defense Department's shift in technology focus toward countering global threats from nations like Russia and China. The TSIGS bundle seeks to offer tactical commanders deployable and remotely controlled signals-intelligence systems for operations above the brigade level. C4ISRNET
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