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Tuesday, May 2, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

Americas

Treasury Chief Yellen Warns U.S. Could Default by June 1 Without Raise of Debt Limit. In a letter sent to Congress, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the US Treasury Department may not meet the US Government payment expectations by June 1 without congressional help. Biden also summoned US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Republican leader Mitch McConnell to a May 9 meeting at the White House to discuss the issue. Should the US default on its payments, there is potential it may disrupt the global economy. Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Amid China Pressure, US and Philippines Recommit to Security Alliance.  Yesterday, US President Biden hosted Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House to reaffirm security commitments amid growing concern about Chinese Naval activity in the South China Sea. Despite a rocky beginning, both Marcos and Biden underscored their deepening commitment to the alliance and security in the Pacific. Marcos is the first Philippine president to officially visit Washington in over 10 years. Associated Press Reuters 

Mexican Suspect Accused of Shooting, Killing Five Neighbors in Texas was Deported Four Times. Francisco Oropesa, the Texas man accused of killing five of his neighbors after they asked him to stop shooting his assault rifle, was previously deported four times since 2009 according to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. According to the statement, he was first deported in March 2009, and again in September 2009, January 2012, and July 2016. Oropesa is currently on the run, and according to the FBI they have zero leads as to where he may be. BBC CNN Reuters

Data Reveals that Air National Guard Spearheads Military Operations, Drone Strikes Following the latest major U.S. intelligence breach, the Air National Guard has moved to the center of the investigation. But the inquiry is also raising new questions about the ways in which the guard has moved to the vanguard of military operations, examining intelligence for drone strikes and executing many of those missions. Meanwhile, prosecutors alleged the accused airman behind the leak, Jack Teixeira, of trying to cover his tracks and noted a possible propensity toward violence. Wall Street Journal

A.I. Pioneer Geoffrey Hinton Leaves Google and Cautions of Dangers. Geoffrey Hinton, who was a principal inventor of neural networks, which underlie modern AI systems, stated that he regrets his life’s work. He recently left Google, and shared that he did not want to sign the recent letters from AI leaders warning against AI or offering public criticism until he had quit. Hinton believes that the day AI becomes smarter than humans is not far off, and unlike with nuclear weapons there is no way of knowing who is working on the technology. He advocated for a pause on AI development from leading scientists until they understand if they can control it.  New York Times

U.S. Decides not to Shoot Down Unmanned Balloon Off Coast of Hawaii U.S. authorities have decided not to shoot down an unmanned, mysterious balloon flying at 36,000 ft off the Haiwaian coast/  The balloon was first spotted by the Defense Department on April 28th. The balloon has not flown over any sensitive locations and does not pose a threat to anyone on the ground; a spokesperson claims that it does not appear to be controlled by an adversarial foreign power. The aircraft left U.S. waters on Monday evening. This event comes after the dramatic removal of a Chinese spy balloon in February, which created a significant amount of tension between Washington and Beijing.  Politico NBC 

Pro-Taiwan Party Wins  Paraguay  Election.  Paraguay’s ruling conservative party candidate Santiago Pena won the country’s presidential election on Monday.  Taiwan reacted warmly to the results and said it would deepen cooperation with Paraguay as Pena has pledged to maintain his country’s relations with Taipei. Pena’s primary rival had threatened to switch recognition to Beijing if he won.  Peno’s victory appears to ensure Taiwan will keep its last remaining diplomatic ally in South America for the time being, following Honduras’ decision to switch official ties to Beijing in March.  Al Jazeera South China Morning Post

Western Europe

Switzerland Takes UN Presidency Amid Russian War. Switzerland assumed the monthly rotating United Nations Security Council Presidency position on Monday for the first time since the country became a full UN member in 2002. During the opening press conference, Switzerland UN Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl said that the country hopes to be a bridge builder and promote unity amongst the security council’s 15 members. The council is expected to meet this month to discuss humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and other issues pertaining to the War in Ukraine.  Associated Press 

Central & Eastern Europe

U.S. Estimates Russia Suffered 100,000 Casualties in Bakhmut.  White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Monday that the U.S. intelligence community estimates Russian forces have suffered 100,00 casualties in the past five months in eastern Ukraine’s Bakhmut region alone.  The estimate includes 20,000 deaths, half of which come from the Wagner Group.  Kirby said that with these losses, Russia’s offensive in the region has “failed” and its small gains in Bakhmut have come at a “terrible, terrible cost.” Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

Ukraine General Says Some Russian Forces Ousted From Bakhmut.  The head of Ukrainian ground forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Monday that Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted some Russian forces from the city of Bakhmut.  He added that while the situation remains “difficult” and new Russian forces, namely Wagner Group mercenaries, continue unrelenting attacks, he maintains that “the enemy is unable to take control of the city.”  Reuters

Russian Missiles Kill 2, Wound 40, But Fail to Reach Kyiv. Early Monday, Russia launched a second round of missile strikes at Ukraine, targeting the eastern city of Pavlohrad and other areas including Kyiv. Eighteen cruise missiles were fired, with 15 of them intercepted according to Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, the missiles that were not intercepted hit several buildings, killing two and injuring 40. The head of Kyiv’s city administration, Serhii Popko, reported that all missiles, and some drones, headed towards Kyiv were shot down. Associated Press 

Analysis- Russian Military Signals Disorganization Ahead of Ukraine Counteroffensive.   CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh is out with a new analysis on the state of Russian military preparations ahead of an expected Ukrainian offensive.  Walsh says that despite some obvious preparations such as an extensive trench network around locations like Zaporizhzhia, other signs point to a state of disarray, or a ‘bar brawl’ phase of Russia’s preparations.  The firing of Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev, so close to the expected Ukrainian offensive is not a good sign for Russia.  Mzinstev’ known as the Butcher of Mariupol, had amassed enough mistakes to certainly be fired, Paton says, but the timing of the move now suggests Russia’s military may be lacking in logistics support on the eve of facing a well prepared Ukrainian army.  And Yevgeny Prigozhin, often an unreliable source of information, chose Sunday nonetheless to give a lengthy interview where he decried Wagner Group’s lack of supplies yet again, suggesting that his fighters may have to abandon the embattled city of Bakhmut.  CNN

Bulgarian Chief Prosecutor Target of Bomb Attack near Sofia. Bulgarian Chief Prosecutor Ivan Geshev managed to escape unharmed after a bomb attack on his vehicle while he was on the way to Sofia, Bulgaria according to government officials. The Head of the National Investigation Service Borislav Sarafov also told reporters that he family was in the car, but fortunately no one was hurt. Sarafov added that the attack was not an attempted assassination, but an attempted intimidation. No one has been identified or claimed responsibility for the attack, but Sarafov has vowed that they will find who is responsible. Associated Press 

Russia may use civilians, journalists to spy on Denmark.  The Danish intelligence service (PET) said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated their need to gather intelligence in NATO countries, and that following a string of diplomatic expulsions, Moscow may resort to using alternative methods to continue its intelligence collection. Last year Denmark, in coordination with other EU countries expelled 15 Russian diplomats, which crippled Moscow’s ability to gather intelligence in Denmark and may, according to the PET, force Moscow to use civilians, journalists, and business people as spies. Denmark’s location near the entrance of the Baltic Sea makes it a strategic NATO intelligence target for Russia and one that would play an important role in any potential conflict.  Reuters

Asia & Oceania

Taiwan’s Tsai to Strengthen Ties with US, Protect Peace. During a meeting in Taiwan with ex-US national security advisor John Bolton, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen told Bolton that Taiwan wants to deepen cooperation with the US and other allies, as military threats from China grow. Tsai also told Bolton that she wished for more military and security exchanges, in addition to economic cooperation, between the two countries. Bolton is currently visiting Taiwan for a weeklong visit that began last Wednesday.  Associated Press 

Chinese and Foreigners Trapped by Beijing’s Increasing Exit Bans. Thousands of Chinese and foreigners are stuck as Beijing tightens control on its borders and is prohibiting some individuals from leaving the country via exit bans.  Those affected reportedly include foreign executives, according to a report from the rights group Safeguard Defenders. This comes as the country claims to be reopened for business following restrictions due to COVID-19. According to the report, from 2018 to July of this year, there are 15 laws that provide for the use of exit bans. Estimates from the groups suggest tens of thousands of Chinese are banned from exiting the country at one time, and there have been 128 cases of foreigners being exit-banned between 1995 to 2019.  Reuters 

Japan, South Korea Hold First Finance Meeting in Seven Years Amid Global Tensions. Japanese and South Korean finance leaders held their first meeting in seven years, as the two countries agreed to resume regular dialogue. This resumption of financial discussions comes as Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to visit Seoul next week for talks with South Korean President Yon Suk Yeol. According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the two countries are important neighbors, and they must collaborate on various challenges facing the global economy, as well as regional matters.  Reuters 

Middle East & Northern Africa

Syrian State Media Claims Israeli Air Raids Targeted Aleppo Airport, Killed Soldier. Citing Syrian military sources, Syria’s state news agency SANA reported that two civilians and five soldiers were wounded and one soldier was killed following Israeli airstrikes on the airport in Aleppo. The airstrikes reportedly put the airport out of commission according to the report. The Israeli authorities have not commented on the strikes. The airport has been a key channel for the shipment of aid following the February 6 earthquakes.  Al Jazeera Associated Press 

Syria Agrees to Restrain Drug Trafficking after Meeting with Arab Foreign Ministers. Following a meeting with Arab foreign ministers, Syria has agreed to take action to control drug trafficking across its borders with Jordan and Iraq. The agreement occurred following a meeting with foreign ministers from Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan in Amman, Jordan to discuss normalizing ties with Damascus.  Al Jazeera 

Taliban Not Invited to UN Afghanistan Conference in Qatari Capital.  As envoys from the United States, Pakistan, China and Russia engage in a United Nations-organized conference on Afghanistan, one group of leaders was noticeably absent from the two-day Doha summit: The Taliban. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said they would not be invited to discuss the humanitarian situation and its international isolation. Representatives from some 25 countries and groups called to the two days of closed-door meetings in the Qatari capital. Al Jazeera 

Palestinian Teenager Shot by Israeli Forces in West Bank Raid  A Palestinian teenager was shot and killed during a West Bank raid on Monday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said, in the latest incident in the ongoing tension between Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank.  Israel says they are engaged in an effort to tamp down increasing violence in the region. The Israeli military said gunmen fired at soldiers during an arrest raid and Israeli forces shot back. Associated Press

Palestinian Prisoner Khader Adnan Dies after 87 Day Hunger Strike in Israel, Palestine Calls Death “Assassination.”  Prominent Palestinian militant Khader Adnan died Tuesday in Israeli custody following an 87 day hunger strike. This is the first fatality of its kind in more than three decades. Adnan, who was waiting on trial, was found unconscious in his jail cell and taken to a hospital where he was declared dead. Adnan’s lawyers have accused Israel of medical negligence, and Palestinian authorities have called his death an “assassination.” Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan’s Generals Agree to Send Representatives for Negotiations, Claims UN Envoy. Yesterday, a top UN official announced that Sudan’s warring generals have agreed to send representatives for negotiations amid the ongoing conflict. The talks, which may be held in Saudi Arabia, would initially focus on creating a stable ceasefire. The outbreak of violence disrupted humanitarian aid flow, which many Sudanese citizens depended on before the conflict, and prompted large population displacements. Associated Press 

UN Refugee Agency Cautions More than 800,000 Will Flee Sudan Amid Conflict. As the conflict in Sudan enters its third week, the UN refugee agency states it could cause more than 800,000 people to flee Sudan. To date approximately 73,000 have left the country. This figure includes other refugees who settled in Sudan for safety, and are forced to move again. Inflated prices have prevented most Sudanese from being able to escape, and they are hiding in their homes with diminishing food and water. Hundreds of civilians have been killed, and thousands have been injured, but international humanitarian organizations are struggling to deliver food, water, and medical aid. The UN Aid Chief Martin Griffiths warned Sudan’s conflict could impact the greater region, and the speed and scale of this conflict is unprecedented. Al Jazeera Reuters 

UN Food Agency Suspends Aid to Northern Ethiopia after Theft United Nations food aid deliveries to Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region – where an estimated five million rely on such aid – have reportedly been temporarily suspended, following an investigation into the theft of food meant for hungry people, according to four humanitarian workers. The World Food Program is tasked with delivering food to the region, the center of a two-year civil war that ended with a ceasefire in November. Last month, AP reported that the WFP was investigating cases of food theft in Ethiopia, where a total of 20 million people need humanitarian help due to drought and conflict. Associated Press 

Cyber & Tech 

U.S. Marshals Computer System Still Hobbled 10 Weeks After Breach. A sensitive computer system used by the U.S. Marshals still has not resumed operations 10 weeks after a cyberattack took the network down.  A little known arm of the Marshals Service, the Technical Operations Group (TOG), tracks suspects through cellphone, email, and online activity.  The TOG computers were breached in early February in a ransomware attack.  The impact of taking the entire system down is that the TOG reportedly has not been doing the kind of real-time collection that contributed to hunting down fugitives.  The Justice Department has called the breach a “major incident.”  For its part, the Marshals Service in a statement said, “We are working swiftly and effectively to mitigate any potential risks as a result of the incident.”  Washington Post

China’s Digital Talent Gap Widening as Smart Manufacturing Surges. Two management studies by Chinese firms indicate that China’s “digital talent gap” is widening, especially in skills needed for software engineering, electronics, and automation.  Job listings for positions connected to the smart manufacturing sector rose by 54 per cent in 2022, according to a leading Chinese recruitment platform.  That sector was short 4.3 million digital workers last year, a deficit that is expected to grow to 5.5 million workers by 2025, according to a joint study.  A product expert at the CIIC management firm said almost half of the industries involved in intelligent manufacturing reported sizable increases in the need for technical expertise to operate and repair high-tech machines.  South China Morning Post

Space Force Prepares for Fast-Turnaround Satellite Launch Experiment. Preparations are under way for a Space Force “operational experiment” to stress-test capabilities for bringing components together rapidly and preparing for launch of a low-orbit satellite.  The Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has contracted with Millennium Space Systems to produce the “Victus Nox” satellite and ground elements, and with Firefly Aerospace to launch the satellite.  Anytime in a six-month period, SSC can issue an order to Millennium to transport their satellite to Vandenberg.  At that location, Firefly’s payload processing center would prepare for launch from Space Launch Complex-2, all of this being accomplished in a span of 60 hours.  The previous “tactically responsive” space mission completed a launch within 11 months.  Earlier time-to- launch cycles averaged 2-5 years.  BreakingDefense

White House Asks Public for Information on Company AI Use Affecting Workers. The White House S&T Policy and Domestic Policy offices are inviting the public to provide information on how employers may be using artificial intelligence to monitor and manage workers.  A blog post to be placed online today requests public input on how automated tools are being deployed in the workplace.  The White House request comes as media reports document numerous instances of surveillance technology in use, including to monitor truckers’ eye movements, to measure the speeds at which fast-food meals are prepared, and to capture automated screenshots of workers’ computers.  According to White House officials, information gathered from the public would be used to promote “fair and equitable workplaces,” advance racial equity, and ensure “workers are treated with respect and dignity, and have the opportunity to form and join unions.”    Bloomberg

UK Payments Processor Hack Prompts Watchdog To Warn Pension Funds. In the wake of a hack of computer systems at Capita, which administers pension payments involving 4 million clients, Britain’s Pension Regulator has warned pension funds to contact Capita if they discover their data has been exposed.  Two weeks ago Capita reported that it was investigating an apparent release by the Black Basta ransomware gang of sensitive data, including home addresses and passport images.  The extent of the data breach is not yet clear, but Capita has reported indications of “limited data exfiltration” from affected servers that may include “customer, supplier or colleague data.”  Financial Times TheRecord

Reuters Explores Draft EU Bill Proposing to Reshape Regulatory Landscape for AI. Last week a small group of European Parliament members hurriedly drafted revisions to existing legislation and established copyright protection as the leading way to control generative AI.  According to Reuters, in a week and a half the legislators composed “landmark legislation” that proposes to govern the products of OpenAI and its rivals.  The group’s proposed changes, which received cross-party support, would force generative AI companies to disclose copyrighted material used to train language models.  A vote in committee will take place on the draft bill May 11.  If approved, it would be negotiated in the trilogue where EU member states debate along with the European Commission and Parliament.  Reuters

AI Chatbots Used to Create Dozens of Questionable Content Websites. A study by a news rating group has discovered that AI tools are being used to create dozens of “news content farms” – amateur  websites operated anonymously to attract advertising with a continuous stream of content posts.  None of the 49 websites identified by NewsGuard and examined by Bloomberg disclosed that they are populated by chatbots such as ChatGPT.  Their content comes in a variety of forms including “breaking news” distributors that carry names such as News Live 79 and Daily Business Post.  Others specialize in lifestyle and celebrity features.  One of the flaws discovered by NewsGuard is that some of these websites circulate clearly false information, including CelebritiesDeaths.com, which published an article titled, “Biden dead. Harris acting President,” and another called TNewsNetwork, which posted an unverified story about the deaths of thousands of soldiers in the Russia-Ukraine war.  NewsGuard co-CEO Gordon Crovitz described the output of some of the AI-generated websites as “fraud masquerading as journalism.”  Bloomberg

Large German IT Service Provider to Healthcare Sector Hit by Cyberattack. Bitmarck, one of Germany’s largest providers of IT services to the healthcare sector, has taken all of its internal and customer systems offline in the wake of an apparent cyberattack.  The company announcement on Sunday indicated no data theft has been confirmed, although investigations are continuing.  The company said that stored patient data have special safeguards and were not “endangered” by the incident.  Bitmarck suffered another cyberattack in January in which data from more than 300,000 insurance policy holders was stolen, including names, dates of birth, and insurance card identification numbers.  TheRecord