Report for Wednesday, September 4, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Hamas leader Sinwar, other militants charged in New York for Oct. 7 attack

Deadliest Russian missile strike this year highlights Ukraine’s air defense shortage

Ukraine’s foreign minister heads for exit as Zelensky launches major shake-up

Former advisor to New York governor charged with being agent for China

Towing deemed unsafe, companies are considering other options for Red Sea tanker

Researchers argue Chinese influence operation is targeting American voters online

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Russia’s Poltava Attack is a Double Disaster for Ukraine  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Hamas leader Sinwar, other militants charged in New York for Oct. 7 attack.   The U.S. Justice Department unsealed a sweeping complaint Tuesday charging Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and five other senior Hamas figures with what Attorney General Merrick Garland called a “decades-long campaign to murder American citizens and endanger the national security of the United States.” The criminal complaint, originally filed in the Southern District of New York in February, charged Hamas leaders with murder conspiracy, terrorism and other terrorism-related acts that are crimes under U.S. law.  Among the charges: conspiring to murder U.S. nationals. According to the complaint, 43 Americans died in the October 7 attack and its aftermath.  Among them, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a 23-year-old Israeli-American taken hostage by Hamas, whose execution by his captors last week has unleashed an outpouring of grief and rage in the U.S. and Israel. Four American hostages remain unaccounted for.  “We are investigating Hersh’s murder, and each and every one of the brutal murders of Americans, as acts of terrorism,” Garland said.   Justice Department Reuters BBC New York Times

Israeli military killed Hamas fighter known for an infamous Oct. 7 video. The Israeli military says it has killed a Hamas commander known for a notorious Oct. 7 video in which he was seen drinking from a bottle of cola in front of two wounded Israeli children who had just watched their father die in a grenade attack. The Israeli military said Tuesday its aircraft hit a compound in Gaza City Saturday, killing Ahmed Fozi Wadia and seven other militants from his brigade. On Oct. 7, Wadia flew into the farming community of Netiv Ha’asara on a paraglider and massacred at least five civilians.  Associated Press/ LA Times Times of Israel  Reuters  

Israeli military kills 35 Palestinians but polio vaccinations go on.Despite fighting that killed at least 35 Palestinians across Gaza on Tuesday, medics carried on with a third day of the campaign to vaccinate 640,000 Gazan children against polio.  The World Health Organization said Tuesday that the vaccination effort has been more successful than expected. In the first two days, 161,030 children were immunized.  The campaign moves next to southern Gaza, where the W.H.O. aims to reach 340,000 children.  Reuters  New York Times   

U.N. Security Council patience for Gaza truce talks wearing thin. The United Nations Security Council is likely to take action soon if the U.S., Qatar and Egypt are unable to broker a ceasefire in Gaza soon, the council president said Tuesday. "There is a raising anxiousness in the council that it has to move one way or the other - either there is a ceasefire or that the council then reflects on what else we can do to bring the ceasefire," Slovenia's U.N. Ambassador Samuel Zbogar, UNSC president for September, said Tuesday.  Reuters

Norway wealth fund may divest companies that support Israel’s war efforts.  Norway's $1.7 trillion wealth fund may divest shares of companies that violate the fund watchdog's new ethics standards for businesses that aid Israel's operations in the occupied Palestinian territories. Among the companies that the fund’s watchdog could be looking at are RTX Corp, General Electric and General Dynamics, because they make weapons used by Israel in Gaza.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Deadliest Russian Missile Strike This Year Highlights Ukraine’s Air Defense Shortage.Tuesday’s missile strike on a military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, which killed at least 53 people and injured more than 270, exposed vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and sparked scrutiny over military preparedness. Ukrainian officials faced criticism for not adequately protecting key military sites. The strike highlighted Ukraine's challenges in safeguarding its infrastructure amid a shortage of advanced air defense systems. Delayed Western military aid and restrictions on striking Russian territory add to Ukraine’s strategic difficulties. This incident has prompted calls for improvements in security protocols and a reassessment of defensive strategies to prevent future tragedies. Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent PoliticoEU New York Times Bloomberg Financial Times Kyiv Independent Associated Press New York Times New York Times Defense Industry of Ukraine 

A Timeline of Some of the Deadliest Attacks in Ukraine’s War With Russia. Tuesday’s deadly attack on the Poltava Institute of Communications was the latest of many Russian strikes that caused mass casualties. At least 11,520 civilians have been killed in the war, according to a United Nations report in July, which said the actual tally may be higher; the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed has been kept a state secret. Russia said in May 2022 that it hit a training ground for reserve forces in the town of Desna, where Ukraine said 87 people were killed. The Russian military has also repeatedly used missiles to smash civilian targets, sometimes killing scores of people in a single attack. Some of the deadliest such assaults included a 2022 airstrike on a theater in Mariupol that killed hundreds of civilians sheltering in the basement and a strike that same year on the train station in Kramatorsk that killed 61. Apartment buildings, markets, and shopping centers have also been targeted. Other incidents: July 8, 2024: A Russian missile destroyed Kyiv's largest children's hospital, killing at least 38 people in a nationwide bombing campaign; Jan. 24, 2024: A Russian military plane crashed near Ukraine’s border, killing 65 Ukrainian POWs; Oct. 5, 2023: Over 50 people died in Hroza village from a Russian Iskander missile strike; Jan. 15, 2023: A Russian missile hit a Dnipro apartment complex, killing 46 people;  Sept. 30, 2022: A missile strike on a convoy fleeing Zaporizhzhia killed at least 30 people; July 9, 2022: A Russian strike on an apartment complex in Chasiv Yar killed at least 43 people; May 17, 2022: A Russian airstrike in Chernihiv killed 87 people; and March 13, 2022: Russian missiles hit a military base in Yavoriv, killing at least 35 people. Reuters Associated Press New York Times 

At least 7 reported killed in Lviv as Russia launches another mass attack on Ukraine. At least seven civilians, including two young girls and a nurse, were killed, and 45 others were injured in Lviv following Russian drone and missile strikes on Wednesday. The attacks, which hit multiple Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Sumy, Lutsk, and Kryvyi Rih, damaged over 50 buildings in Lviv, including schools and historic structures. Russian missiles that struck Kryvyi Rih injured at least five civilians, including a 10-year-old girl. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 22 drones and several missiles, but the nationwide assault caused significant destruction and casualties. Poland scrambled NATO aircraft in response to airspace violations.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russian attacks kill 3, target railway infrastructure, Ukraine says. Russian attacks on Ukraine early Tuesday resulted in the deaths of two people, including an eight-year-old boy in the Zaporizhzhia region and one person in a missile strike on Dnipro. The attacks also targeted railway infrastructure and an energy facility in Chernihiv, injuring three employees. Ukrainian forces shot down 27 of 35 drones launched by Russia. In Zaporizhzhia, a hotel complex was hit, killing a woman and her son, and injuring two others. Additional attacks caused damage in several regions, but no casualties were reported in Mykolaiv and Kyiv. Reuters

US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months. The U.S. is nearing a decision to supply Ukraine with Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), capable of reaching deep into Russian territory. However, delivery will take several months to address technical challenges, such as integrating these missiles with Ukraine’s Soviet-era jets. This move could shift the strategic balance, allowing Ukraine to target Russian military installations, supply depots, and airfields up to 300 kilometers inside Russia. While the Biden administration has been cautious about escalating the conflict, this development reflects growing pressure to enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities against Russia’s offensive operations. Reuters

Germany is sticking to the Kyiv air defense supply plan, source says. Germany remains committed to delivering 12 IRIS-T SLM air defense systems to Ukraine. Four units have been delivered, two more are expected by year-end, and the remaining six will follow later. Reuters

Zelensky says Ukraine plans to hold Russian territory it has seized indefinitely. President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News that Ukraine intends to indefinitely hold the Russian territory it seized in a surprise incursion, aiming to use this as leverage to force Russia into peace negotiations. He emphasized that holding this territory is integral to Ukraine's "victory plan" and was a strategic move to disrupt Russian operations and push for diplomatic talks from a position of strength. Zelensky also disclosed that the operation was kept secret, even from close allies like the U.S., to ensure its success. NBC News

Ukraine’s foreign minister heads for exit as Zelensky launches major shake-up. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has offered his resignation as President Zelensky plans the most extensive government shake-up since Russia's invasion over two years ago. At least six other senior officials are also stepping down, with more expected to follow. Zelensky aims to strengthen key areas of governance to better achieve Ukraine’s goals amid the ongoing war. A new list of ministers will be presented soon. PoliticoEU New York Times Associated Press Newsweek  Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Sybiha Set to Become Ukraine’s Next Foreign Minister in Shakeup.  Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Sybiha is reportedly expected to replace Dmytro Kuleba as foreign minister in a government reshuffle by President Zelensky. Kuleba resigned and will focus on strengthening Ukraine's relations with NATO as the country aims to join the bloc. Sybiha, currently Kuleba's deputy, is known as a skilled diplomat, having served as Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey and Zelensky's deputy chief of staff. Bloomberg 

Ukraine arms chief, four ministers resign in government shake-up. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed Deputy Chief of Staff Rostyslav Shurma. Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin and four other ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, responsible for European integration, resigned in a major government shake-up. Kamyshin, who led Ukraine’s defense production efforts, is expected to take another defense role. The shake-up leaves over a third of cabinet positions vacant as Ukraine prepares for critical developments in the war with Russia. Zelensky aims to fill these positions before his September visit to the U.S., where he plans to present a "victory plan" to President Joe Biden. Reuters Reuters

Ukraine’s power sector is in turmoil over claims of a ‘political’ purge. The dismissal of Volodymyr Kudrytsky, head of Ukraine's national electricity grid operator Ukrenergo, has ignited turmoil for an energy sector under strain from repeated Russian military strikes. Two of the six board members, Daniel Dobbeni and Peder Andreasen, resigned in protest, labeling the move politically motivated without valid grounds. They claimed a political campaign aimed to undermine Kudrytsky's leadership and noted persistent pressure to appoint less qualified individuals to the management board. Kudrytsky, who led Ukrenergo since 2020, denied the board’s official rationale for firing him – that he failed to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure from Russian attacks. “Ukrenergo was the only large state enterprise not under the control of the Ministry of Energy,” said Andrii Zhupanyn, a Ukrainian parliament member from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s governing Servant of the People party and a member of the parliamentary energy committee. “The motivation could be to dismiss someone who wasn’t under their control and replace him with someone they can tell what to do.” PoliticoEU Financial Times Kyiv Independent

Drone appears to drop molten thermite on Ukraine's southern front.A video surfaced online Monday showing a drone dropping molten thermite on soldiers hidden in a treeline, likely in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources have claimed responsibility for this drone innovation, with Ukraine’s 108th Territorial Defense Brigade reportedly deploying it. Thermite weapons, which burn at over 2,000°C, can melt through armored vehicles and cause extensive injuries. Human Rights Watch warns of severe, often lifelong physical and mental suffering from such munitions. This appears to be the first instance of a Ukrainian drone delivering a continuous stream of molten thermite, marking another advancement in the drone warfare arms race between Ukraine and Russia. Drones have played a crucial role in this war, with both sides innovating, including Ukraine's naval drones and Russia's Lancet kamikaze drones. Kyiv Independent

What the ‘rocket drone’ Palianytsia means for Ukraine. The Palianytsia, a new Ukrainian "rocket drone," showcases the country's ingenuity amid the war. Designed and produced in 18 months, it blurs the line between missile and drone and avoids Western restrictions on striking deep into Russia. President Zelensky announced its first combat use, though most details remain classified. While mass production could enhance Ukraine’s deep-strike capability, experts are cautious about its impact. It highlights Ukraine’s response to Western hesitance in providing more advanced weapons, underscoring the need for greater resources and timeliness in the war.  Axios

IAEA chief discusses Ukraine, Russia nuclear plants with Zelensky, says situation fragile.  International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday to discuss the "very fragile" situation at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, where the risk of a disaster remains high. Grossi emphasized that any disruption, such as a power outage, could lead to a catastrophe. He also highlighted concerns about the Kursk nuclear plant in Russia where Ukrainian forces have invaded. Ukraine's foreign ministry denounced what it said were Russian efforts to accuse Ukraine of threatening nuclear safety, saying this was a "disinformation campaign to distract attention from its criminal acts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan.” Russian attacks have damaged one of the two overhead power lines at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on Tuesday. "In case of damage to the second power line, an emergency will arise due to the loss of external power supply to the pumps that cool the reactor cores and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's fuel pools," Energoatom warned. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Norway pledges $53 million for drones, air defense for Ukraine. Norway pledged $53 million through the International Fund for Ukraine to supply drones and air defense systems to Ukraine, strengthening its defense against Russian attacks. This contribution is part of Norway's broader commitment to support Ukraine, including a $1.3 billion military aid package for 2024. Kyiv Independent

Kremlin says the threat from the West forces change to nuclear doctrine. The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine due to escalating threats from the West, particularly the United States, over the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed the U.S. for provoking tensions and undermining European security, linking the changes to increasing Western military support for Ukraine. Russia warned that if long-range Western weapons strike Russian territory, the response would be swift and severe. The revision is in its early stages. Reuters

Back to school in Ukraine’s embattled Kharkiv means heading underground.  In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, students returned to in-person classes this week for the first time in years, but in an underground bunker designed to protect them from Russian missiles. Located just 20 miles from Russia, Kharkiv has endured relentless bombardment since the 2022 invasion, forcing schools to operate online. Students are now adjusting to their new subterranean school environment. The school, nearly 20 feet underground, offers a safer alternative but reflects the ongoing dangers of living so close to Russia. Despite air raids and recent missile strikes nearby, students and teachers are determined to continue their education. Washington Post

Ukraine Braces for IMF Pressure to Devalue Currency, Cut Rates. Ukrainian officials expect pressure from the IMF to devalue the hryvnia faster, cut interest rates, and increase tax efforts to address the country’s budget gap during a review of its $15.6 billion loan program. The National Bank of Ukraine is hesitant to weaken the currency further, as it has already lost over 10% of its value since October, and such moves would challenge price stability and be politically damaging. Ukraine faces a $15 billion budget gap for 2025 despite $122 billion in international aid. The IMF also urges broader tax hikes, including a potential VAT increase. Bloomberg Reuters

ANALYSIS–Putin Will Never Give Up in Ukraine. Peter Schroeder argues that the West’s strategy of trying to pressure Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine is fundamentally flawed. Putin views Ukraine’s alignment with the West as a threat to Russia, and he is fully committed to preventing this, regardless of the costs. Washington’s belief that sanctions, military support for Ukraine, and diplomatic isolation can change Putin’s calculus is unrealistic. Instead, Schroeder suggests that the best approach is to play a long game: holding the line in Ukraine, minimizing the expenditure of resources, and waiting for Putin to leave power. Until then, the focus should be on preventing further Russian advances, maintaining economic pressure, and preparing for a future in which a post-Putin Russia might be more open to negotiating a lasting peace. Foreign Affairs 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment On Tuesday, September 3, 2024.  Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at civilian infrastructure and a military facility in Poltava, killing and wounding many as part of a wider strike on Monday-Tuesday. The impacts of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast on the war and diplomacy remain unclear, with assessments still premature. Early assessments of Ukraine's incursion may inaccurately gauge its potential to change the war’s trajectory or influence peace negotiations. The US is considering providing Ukraine with long-range JASSM missiles. Vladimir Putin signed agreements in Mongolia to strengthen economic ties and trilateral energy relations with Russia, Mongolia, and China. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Chinese President Xi Jinping praised their efforts to address the war in Ukraine. Russian occupation authorities continue recruiting civilians in occupied Ukraine for military service.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The EU fiddles while Kyiv burns. Despite the G7’s pledge to support Ukraine with $50 billion by leveraging interest from frozen Russian assets, the EU has yet to take the necessary legal steps to implement this promise. Bureaucratic delays, summer vacations, and negotiations over the new European Commission have stalled progress. The inaction is harming Ukraine’s finances, which face an urgent crisis. While concerns over governance in Kyiv exist, immediate action is needed from the EU to fulfill its commitments and support Ukraine’s financial stability. PoliticoEU

AMERICAS

Former advisor to New York governor charged with being agent for China.  Linda Sun, former deputy chief of staff for New York Governor Kathy Hochul, was arrested Tuesday and charged with acting as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government. Federal prosecutors accused Sun of blocking representatives of the Taiwanese government from accessing high-level New York state officials, altering state governmental messaging on China-related issues, and attempting to facilitate a trip to China for a high-level New York politician. Sun’s husband Chris Hu was also arrested, and charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, bank fraud, and misuse of means of identification.  Sun’s lawyer did not immediately comment. A spokesperson for Hochul’s office said Sun was fired in March 2023 after the discovery of “evidence of misconduct” and that she was reported to law enforcement.  Associated Press Justice Department

Blinken subpoenaed by U.S. congressional committee over Afghanistan. The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday subpoenaed Secretary of State Antony Blinken after he declined to testify on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Committee Chairman Michael McCaul has ordered Blinken to appear on September 19 or face contempt charges. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that Blinken was unavailable for the proposed dates but had suggested alternative arrangements. Miller expressed disappointment at the subpoena, noting that Blinken had already testified multiple times on Afghanistan and that the committee had been given extensive documents and briefings, including 20,000 pages of records. McCaul’s committee has been investigating the deadly withdrawal and aims to consider reforms to prevent similar mistakes in the future. The issue remains highly politicized, especially ahead of the upcoming U.S. elections. Reuters

Canada rejecting more foreigners amid border crackdown, immigration disputes. Government data shows that Canada is increasingly rejecting visitors and temporary residents by denying more visas and turning away more people at its borders as it seeks to reduce the number of temporary and possibly permanent residents. In July 2024, 5,853 foreign travelers were refused entry, the highest number since January 2019. Border officers have also turned away an average of 3,727 travelers per month in 2024, a 20% increase from the previous year. Visa refusals have risen, with more visitor visa applications being rejected than approved in several months this year. The Canada Border Services Agency stated that these decisions are made on a case-by-case basis, while Canada's immigration department has been approving fewer visas. Reuters

Haiti’s primary hydroelectric plant out after protesters storm facilities, gangs make safe transport impossible.Haiti's largest hydroelectric plant, Peligre, has halted operations due to protests over electricity distribution. Protesters raided the plant and demanded that power be supplied to areas outside the capital, Port-au-Prince, where many residents rely on costly diesel generators and solar batteries. The poorest residents cannot afford these alternatives. The state-owned power company, Electricité d'Haïti (EDH), said the shutdown worsens the country's power crisis, as Peligre's 54 MW capacity provides nearly all of Haiti's hydroelectric power. The unrest has damaged critical equipment, and technical assistance cannot reach the plant because gangs have severed safe transport routes around Port-au-Prince. Reuters

International community denounces Venezuela’s arrest warrant for opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia. Several countries, including the U.S., Brazil, Italy, Argentina, and Peru, have condemned Venezuela’s arrest warrant for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez. The warrant, issued by Venezuela's attorney general, accuses Gonzalez of conspiracy, following the disputed July 28 election. Gonzalez, standing behind a significant amount of evidence showing an overwhelming win, has challenged President Nicolas Maduro’s victory claims. Washington criticized the warrant as part of Maduro's efforts to hold onto power, with U.S. officials warning of potential consequences for Venezuela's actions. National security spokesman John Kirby said the White House is weighing “a range of options to demonstrate” to Maduro’s government that “their actions . . . will have consequences." Brazil's top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, expressed serious concern over the situation, calling the warrant an "authoritarian escalation." The Italian foreign ministry condemned the warrant and summoned the Venezuelan chargée d'affaires in Rome to protest the move and urge the publication of election results. Both Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remain in hiding. State Department Reuters Barron's Reuters

U.N. reports on Nicaraguan government's violent suppression. A U.N. report published on Tuesday outlines alleged crimes and human rights abuses perpetrated by the regime of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, including a clampdown on dissent involving arbitrary arrests and torture. The report is based on 120 interviews with victims, witnesses, and civil society groups, covering the 12 months leading up to May 2024. It documents an increase in arbitrary detentions, with 131 perceived opponents of Ortega arrested. The report also details cases of torture, including rapes and electric shocks. Ortega's government has historically ignored such reports, labeling them part of an international campaign against it. Since mass protests in 2018, which resulted in over 300 civilian deaths, the ruling regime has targeted Catholic priests, shut down civil society groups, and arrested perceived opponents. Critics argue that Ortega has been systematically silencing and repressing opposition to maintain power. Reuters U.N. News

EUROPE

Turkish authorities arrest ultra-nationalists for assaulting two U.S. Marines in Izmir.

On Monday Turkish authorities arrested 15 ultra-nationalists accused of assaulting two U.S. Marines in Turkey’s Aegean port city of Izmir.  A Turkish court released five of them under judicial control Tuesday and ordered 10 held in pretrial detention. The pair of Marines were set upon Monday evening by members of the Turkish Youth Union, a nationalist anti-American organization that has attacked American service members before. U.S. Sixth Fleet spokesperson and Navy Commander Timothy Gorman told VOA the two Marines were from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which arrived on the USS Wasp. Gorman said the two Marines were in plain clothes when the incident occurred and returned to their ship unharmed after a precautionary medical check at a hospital.  The USS Wasp remains deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean along with several other US warships, in case the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates into a regional war.  AL-Monitor  CNN   Voice of America

Finland set to boost spending on defense, NATO and security. Finland plans to increase spending on security, NATO membership, and defense next year while reducing welfare spending to address the country's fiscal deficit. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's government introduced labor market reforms and welfare cuts, which sparked widespread strikes earlier in the year. These measures aim to boost productivity and reduce the deficit as Finland faces recession due to high interest rates and the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, state spending will rise to 88.8 billion euros, while the deficit is expected to decrease slightly to 12.2 billion euros. Defense spending will grow by 488 million euros, mainly for acquiring new fighter jets, and NATO-related costs will increase by 67 million euros. The government has also pledged more funding for border and police forces. Orpo's coalition has introduced austerity measures aimed at balancing the budget by 9 billion euros by 2027. Reuters

Media reports say the Netherlands to have its own tank unit for the first time in a decade.  The Netherlands will establish its own tank unit for the first time in over a decade, according to local media, ahead of a defense white paper release. This move is part of the country's efforts to meet NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP. The cost for setting up the tank unit will range from 260 million to 315 million euros ($347.82 million) annually. The budget will cover the purchase of new tanks, most likely the German-made Leopard 2, which has been used by the Dutch army for 40 years.  Reuters

Sorry not sorry, says Mongolia after failure to arrest Putin. Mongolia, heavily dependent on Russia for 95% of its petroleum and over 20% of its electricity, faced criticism for not executing the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin during his visit on Tuesday. The ICC issued the warrant over war crimes related to Ukraine, but Mongolia's energy reliance and diplomatic balancing act between Russia and China complicate its position. Ukraine and human rights organizations condemned Mongolia’s inaction. Putin invited Mongolia’s president to the upcoming BRICS summit during his visit. Mongolia maintains a policy of neutrality and highlighted historic ties with Russia during the visit. PoliticoEU

Opinion: Why EU leaders should get off Musk's X. Andrew Rettman likens European Union leaders using X (formerly Twitter) to advertising in a public toilet—an inappropriate space to communicate political messages. He criticizes Elon Musk's platform for amplifying racism, misogyny, and propaganda, creating a toxic online environment. Despite EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen using X for outreach, Rettman argues that their presence boosts Musk and others like Andrew Tate financially while degrading their own brands. He urges EU leaders to switch to a less harmful platform, noting that their use of X damages public mental health and worsens the broader political landscape. EUObserver

THE MIDDLE EAST

Inside the joint U.S., Iraqi raid that targeted ISIS hideouts and killed at least 14.  Last week, American and Iraqi commandos conducted a major counterterrorism raid in Iraq’s sparsely populated west, targeting Islamic State (ISIS) bunkers with the goal of disrupting the organization’s ability to plan and execute attacks. The main target of the operation, which involved over 200 soldiers, was a senior ISIS commander overseeing activities in both the Middle East and Europe. The raid, which took place in remote swaths of terrain in Anbar province, killed at least 14 ISIS fighters. Two more militants were captured. During the operation, seven U.S. soldiers were wounded, though none of the injuries were life-threatening. The mission highlighted the resurgence of ISIS in the region, despite Iraqi claims that they can control the threat without Washington’s assistance. The U.S. has been involved in over 250 counterterrorism missions in Iraq since last October, but this particular raid was notable for the heavy involvement of American commandos. ISIS, though significantly weakened since its peak, continues to operate in rural areas of Iraq and Syria. The presence of thousands of ISIS detainees in camps in northeastern Syria remains a concern, with fears that these facilities could serve as breeding grounds for future extremists. New York Times 

Towing deemed unsafe, companies are considering other options for Red Sea tanker. Private companies engaged in salvaging the Sounion oil tanker, which was attacked by Yemen's Houthi forces in the Red Sea on August 21, are weighing new ideas after determining that the initial towing operation was unsafe, according to the European Union's naval mission, Apsides. The Sounion, loaded with about one million barrels of crude oil and still ablaze, has reportedly been rigged with explosives by the Houthis, making the operation particularly dangerous. Aspides has offered protection to tugboats for the salvage effort, but private companies involved concluded that current conditions were too risky. If a spill occurs, it could result in one of the largest environmental disasters from a ship in history. Despite the Houthis agreeing to allow salvage teams to tow the vessel, the operation is highly complex, requiring further reassessment and more technical resources. Reuters BBC Associated Press Times of Israel

ASIA & OCEANIA

South Korea, Vietnam agree on stronger defense and tech ties. The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol revealed Tuesday that Yoon and Vietnamese  leader To Lam spoke over the phone, agreeing to forge stronger defense and technology ties and to tighten strategic collaboration. Reuters

Ex-mayor of Philippine town who fled the nation amid fraud scandal detained in Indonesia. Alice Guo, the ex-mayor of Bamban town in the Philippines, has been arrested in Indonesia and is in the custody of police, according to Manila’s Department of Justice. Guo, also known as Chinese citizen Guo Hua Ping, is accused of having ties to Chinese criminal syndicates and is wanted by the Philippine Senate for refusing to attend a congressional investigation into these alleged connections. She rejects the accusations, claiming to be a natural-born Philippine national facing unfounded, "malicious” charges. Guo was apprehended near midnight in Tangerang City, Jakarta. The Philippines' Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) recently filed multiple charges against her and 35 others, accusing them of laundering over 100 million pesos (approximately $1.8 million) from criminal activities. Guo fled the Philippines in July and traveled through Malaysia and Singapore before being detained in Indonesia. The Senate's investigation began after a March raid on a casino in Bamban, which revealed scams linked to a facility partly owned by the former mayor. Bloomberg South China Morning Post Reuters The Guardian

Thousands of Rohingya pour into Bangladesh from Myanmar. About 8,000 ethnic Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar's Rakhine state to Bangladesh in recent months, escaping escalating violence between Myanmar's ruling junta and the Arakan Army, a Buddhist ethnic militia. Bangladeshi officials, while expressing sympathy for the historically persecuted Rohingya, stated that the country is already overwhelmed and cannot accommodate more refugees. Dhaka’s government plans to discuss the crisis soon but acknowledges that fully sealing the border is not feasible. Over one million Rohingya currently live in congested refugee camps in Bangladesh, following the 2017 military crackdown in Myanmar. Dhaka has urged the international community to pressure the Arakan Army to stop attacks on the Rohingya. Reuters

Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly Kabul explosion, citing base detentions as motive. Islamic State has taken responsibility for Monday’s fatal suicide bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, that killed six people, stating it was in retaliation for the Taliban's reactivation of detention facilities at the high-security Bagram base. The base, historically a Soviet-built airstrip, was a central hub for U.S. forces in Afghanistan until their withdrawal in 2021, after which the Taliban seized power. Islamic State's statement on Telegram indicated that the assault was a response to the transfer of Muslim prisoners to the notorious Bagram prison, drawing parallels to the abuse during the American occupation. The Taliban recently announced the reactivation of the prison, now under the control of the General Directorate of Intelligence, although they did not specify who the prisoners were. Kabul police reported that all six killed in the bombing were civilians, but Islamic State claimed that 45 people, including Taliban members, were killed, and that the bomber had targeted those working with judicial services. The Taliban-run interior ministry has not commented on the incident. Islamic State-Khurasan, the local affiliate of the broader Islamic State, continues to carry out attacks. Reuters Associated Press

AFRICA

China vows to promote investment in Nigeria amid effort to expand global footprint. China has committed to encouraging its stronger companies to invest in Nigeria, and Nigeria has expressed openness to the prospect of Chinese companies constructing factories and developing its energy and mineral resources. This announcement follows a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu in Beijing ahead of the China-Africa Cooperation Summit. The two leaders discussed bolstering China-Nigeria relations, particularly in e-commerce, logistics, and economic diversification. They also agreed to strengthen cooperation in regional financial matters, military technology, intelligence, and maintaining peace and security in various regions. Xi said that the two countries will “inject fresh impetus to China-Africa relations” and lead progress among the Global South. Abuja and Beijing plan to deepen their collaboration within China's Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure, human resources development, and nuclear energy. China, Nigeria's largest bilateral lender with $5 billion in loans, has already contributed to significant infrastructure projects in the country. During his visit, Tinubu secured commitments from Chinese companies to invest in renewable energy and technology.  Reuters

China signs initial agreement on key railway project with Tanzania, Zambia. Chinese state media on Wednesday announced Beijing’s signing of a memorandum of understanding to enhance the Tanzania-Zambia railway project, aimed at improving the rail-sea intermodal transportation network in East Africa. The signing, witnessed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as the Tanzanian and Zambian leaders, took place during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing. Xi emphasized China's commitment to improving transport networks and making Tanzania a key zone for China-Africa Belt and Road cooperation. The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), which serves the Dar es Salaam corridor, plays a vital role in facilitating copper exports from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, offering an alternative to bottlenecks in South Africa. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Researchers argue Chinese influence operation is targeting American voters online.  Research conducted by Graphika, an intelligence company, reveals that a Chinese social media influence campaign, known as "Spamouflage" or "Dragonbridge," has been actively impersonating American voters, spreading divisive messages, casting doubt on the electoral process, and disparaging politicians ahead of the U.S. presidential election.  This Beijing-linked operation has been in action since at least 2017 but has ramped up its efforts as the election approaches, using thousands of accounts across more than 50 platforms. Spamouflage's goal is not to favor a particular political party but to magnify existing criticisms and societal divisions within the U.S. In one instance, it mimicked American anti-war advocates to spread derogatory memes about both Trump and Biden. The aggressive campaign has started to engage more effectively with actual Americans, especially Trump supporters, since mid-2023. China's embassy in Washington denied any intentions to impact U.S. elections, though Facebook has in the past accused Chinese law enforcement of conducting the campaign, describing it as "the largest known cross-platform covert influence operation in the world." The operation has had some success on platforms like TikTok, and social media companies such as Meta and YouTube have been working to remove Spamouflage accounts. And though Washington is investigating broader foreign efforts to interfere in the election, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence has noted that Beijing is approaching the 2024 election cautiously and likely does not intend to influence its outcome directly. The Record Reuters

Investor caution hits Nvidia: record $279 billion market loss amid AI concerns. Nvidia's shares dropped 9.5% on Tuesday, leading to a $279 billion loss in market value, the largest single-day decline for a U.S. company. This came amid investor caution about AI investments following Nvidia's lower-than-expected quarterly forecast. The broader chip market, represented by the PHLX chip index, fell 7.75%. Concerns are growing over whether AI investments will justify the high capital spending. The decline in Nvidia's stock also coincided with broader market selloffs, as worries about economic data and upcoming job reports mounted. Reuters

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