Report for Wednesday, September 25, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Hezbollah targeted Mossad HQ in Tel Aviv, missile intercepted by Iron Dome.

Zelensky tells UN Security Council that Russia 'can only be forced into peace'

Russia has secret war drones project in China, intel sources say.

Iranian president says his nation aims to play a ‘constructive role’ in global affairs

China conducts first test launch of ICBM in over 40 years

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Odesa’s War – and What Comes AfterThe Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Hezbollah targeted Mossad HQ in Tel Aviv, missile intercepted by Iron Dome.  Hezbollah forces fired a missile at Tel Aviv, the first to target the city. Hezbollah said it was a ballistic missile aimed at the Mossad headquarters.  Israel’s missile defense system shot it down.  The Israeli military said a single surface-to-surface missile was intercepted after it was detected crossing from Lebanon.  Hezbollah fired about 300 rockets at northern Israel on Tuesday, the Israeli army said. Israel Electric Corp., the country’s biggest power provider, said a “strategic” facility was targeted but wasn’t damaged. Also Wednesday, the Israeli military said its fighter jets shot down a drone flying from Syria into Israeli territory south of the Sea of Galilee. Islamic Resistance armed groups in Iraq said in a statement they had attacked a target in the occupied Golan Heights via a drone. Bloomberg Reuters 

Israel has landed heavy blows on Hezbollah. The victory it seeks could prove elusive. The past week has been catastrophic for Hezbollah and Lebanon, with Israeli airstrikes killing two top Hezbollah commanders and targeting over 1,600 militant sites, resulting in hundreds of deaths and displacing thousands. Hezbollah has responded with a limited barrage of rockets and drones, including a longer-range missile aimed at Tel Aviv, intercepted by Israeli defenses. Israel's objectives, including securing the northern border, remain uncertain, as Hezbollah continues to maintain significant firepower. Experts note that while Israel's airstrikes have been effective, Hezbollah likely retains more advanced capabilities in reserve, and both sides face the possibility of an extended conflict. Israel has not ruled out a ground invasion, although the risks of mission creep and long-term occupation are significant. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is caught between escalating the conflict or facing internal criticism for its alignment with Iran, leaving the future uncertain.  Reuters

Security Council to meet on escalating Mideast war. Biden, at U.N., pleads for calm.  The U.N. Security Council plans to meet Wednesday to discuss the Israel-Lebanon conflict. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden addressed the U.N. General Assembly, pleading for a “diplomatic solution” and saying, "Full-scale war is not in anyone's interest.”  Other world leaders spoke forcefully against Israel’s conduct of the Gaza war.  “The Israeli government’s assault has resulted in one of the fastest death rates in recent conflicts, one of the fastest rates of starvation caused by war, the largest cohort of child amputees and unprecedented levels of destruction,” King Abdullah II of Jordan said.  Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian told the U.N. General Assembly the international community must "secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and bring an end to the desperate barbarism of Israel in Lebanon, before it engulfs the region and the world."  On the ground, battles raged. On Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Qubaisi, who led Hamas’ missile and rocket force.  Israel's military said its air force conducted "extensive strikes" Tuesday on Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities and rocket launch sites.  Hezbollah claimed to have sent rockets toward the Dado military base in northern Israel and drones to attack the Atlit naval base south of Haifa.  Speaking to Israeli soldiers Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared, “We must continue until we achieve our goal — to ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern residents to their homes.”  The U.K. urged its nationals to evacuate from Lebanon and announced that 700 British troops would deploy to Cyprus to help stranded Brits.  Since Monday, the Lebanese health minister said, Israel's offensive has killed 569 people, including 50 children, and wounded 1,835.  Reuters Washington Post Washington Post  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky tells UN Security Council that Russia 'can only be forced into peace'. In his speech Tuesday to the United Nations Security Council, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for increased international pressure on Russia, stating that “Russia can only be forced into peace.” He sought more military aid, including long-range missiles and security guarantees, as Russia’s invasion nears its third year. Zelensky’s U.S. visit is part of a broader effort to regain Western focus on Ukraine amid escalating Russian attacks in the east, where key areas like Pokrovsk and Vuhledar are under threat. He criticized the Biden administration’s restrictions on long-range strikes into Russia, expressing frustration that Ukraine is fighting "with one arm tied behind its back." Zelensky also accused Russia of war crimes, including targeting civilians and energy infrastructure, and warned of potential attacks on Ukrainian nuclear plants. He stressed that diplomatic efforts alone will not end the war. Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters The Guardian France 24  Transcript of speech RFE/RL 

Russia fires barrage at Ukraine, killing 3 in Kharkiv, as Zelensky pitches plan at UN. A Russian missile and drone barrage hit Ukraine overnight Tuesday, coinciding with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s U.S. visit to seek support for his "victory plan." In Kharkiv, Russian bombs struck a high-rise apartment, killing three people and injuring at least 24 others. Rescue operations continue as more victims are feared trapped under the rubble. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov described the Russian attacks as targeting civilian infrastructure, including an apartment building, bakery, and stadium. Zelensky condemned Russia as a terrorist state, pointing to these strikes as evidence. Meanwhile, Ukraine's air force reported downing 66 out of 81 Shahed drones. As Russia escalates its assaults on energy infrastructure, Ukraine faces localized blackouts, adding to the growing civilian toll. ABC News BBC Euronews RFE/RL Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill at least 11, injure 69 over past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day have killed at least 11 people and injured 69, local authorities said Wednesday. Strikes in Kharkiv claimed three lives and injured 36, while additional fatalities occurred in Kupiansk, Varvarivka, Zaporizhzhia, Polohy, Nova Sloboda, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk. Kherson Oblast was heavily targeted, with 20 settlements attacked, leaving one dead and 18 injured. Ukrainian forces intercepted 28 out of 32 Shahed drones and all four cruise missiles launched. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky's victory plan sets Ukraine's terms in a desperate war against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s "victory plan" calls for swift action from the Biden administration to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses before the U.S. presidential transition in January. Frustrated by Western delays since Russia’s invasion, Zelensky seeks immediate approval for long-range weapons, air defenses, and NATO membership to force Moscow into negotiations. His plan emphasizes that time is critical, as hesitation could lead to greater Ukrainian losses and give Russia time to rebuild its military. Ukrainian officials fear that if Western support continues to lag, Ukraine may lose more territory by the year's end. Zelensky insists action is needed "today" while supportive officials remain in power, stressing the urgency of strengthening Ukraine’s position. Without rapid support, the war could drag on for years, increasing the likelihood of a disadvantageous cease-fire. Associated Press

Ukraine’s Allies Play Down Hopes for Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’ Breakthrough.  Western officials have downplayed expectations for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s "victory plan," which he is presenting at the United Nations General Assembly and the White House on Thursday. While Zelensky aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position for future talks with Russia, allies view the plan as unlikely to bring a breakthrough. Some see it as more of a "wish list" than a game-changer, reflecting a growing pessimism about the war as it enters its third year. Concerns also rise about waning support for Ukraine, especially if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. Allies have even suggested renewed outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, Zelensky continues urging stronger military aid to expedite an end to the war, warning that rejecting the plan could divide global support for Ukraine. Bloomberg

White House working on Plan B to extend Ukraine military aid. The Biden administration is preparing a plan to extend $5.9 billion in U.S. military aid to Ukraine before the authority expires on Oct. 1, 2024. This aid, part of a package passed in April, allows the Pentagon to quickly send weapons from its stockpiles. However, under this new approach, the U.S. cannot introduce new types of weapons that haven’t been sent previously. Congressional Republicans previously blocked a larger aid package for eight months, leading to delays in U.S. arms shipments. The issue resurfaced on Sunday, when Speaker Mike Johnson released the details of his proposed three-month funding patch, and the Ukraine authority extension wasn’t included. Congressional leaders left it out because of internal resistance from the House GOP. House Republicans remain deeply divided over funding for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pressing for faster delivery, as Ukraine faces critical battles. CNN Politico

Trump praises Russia’s military record in argument to stop funding Ukraine’s fight.Donald Trump, speaking in Savannah, Georgia, on Tuesday praised Russia’s military history and criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine, claiming he would quickly end the war if re-elected. He mocked President Joe Biden’s commitment to supporting Ukraine until victory, referencing the Soviet Union’s help in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II and Napoleon’s failed invasion of the Russian Empire in 1812. Trump insisted the U.S. must withdraw but offered no details on how he would negotiate an end to the war. Trump also dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "salesman" and falsely claimed Zelensky secured $100 billion in aid during each U.S. visit.  The U.S. has provided more than $56 billion in security assistance since Russia invaded in 2022, according to the State Department. Trump’s campaign confirmed no meeting with Zelensky is planned. Associated Press Ukrainska Pravda Reuters

Zelensky to visit US Capitol on Thursday, Schumer's office says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the U.S. Capitol on Thursday to meet with Democratic and Republican lawmakers, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's office said on Tuesday. House Speaker Mike Johnson was unsure if members from the lower chamber would also be meeting with Zelensky. Johnson said Thursday's schedule was "very fluid," citing the House's plans to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government open through Dec. 20. Reuters CBS News

Invitation to NATO part of Ukraine's victory plan, Yermak confirms. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, confirmed that an invitation to join NATO is part of Ukraine's five-point victory plan. Speaking Tuesday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Yermak emphasized that the plan includes both diplomatic and military components. He also urged partners to ignore Russia’s threats of escalation. President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to present the plan to President Joe Biden at the White House on Thursday and discuss it with U.S. presidential candidates. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine bets on India to help get peace deal with Putin. Ukraine sees Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a key intermediary for peace with Russia, viewing India as a credible neutral party. Modi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York, discussing pathways to end the war. While Modi emphasized Ukraine may need to compromise, he rejected proposals that involve ceding territory to Russia. India’s non-aligned stance and good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv make it a favored mediator, as efforts from countries like Saudi Arabia and China have been less effective or seen as biased towards Russia. PoliticoEU

US to send $375 million in military aid to Ukraine, including medium-range cluster bombs. The U.S. is set to announce a $375 million military aid package to Ukraine, including medium-range cluster bombs, rockets, artillery, and armored vehicles. The package, expected to be revealed on Wednesday, aims to bolster Ukraine's defenses as President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks more support at the United Nations General Assembly and pushes for permission to use long-range weapons against Russia. The aid will include munitions for HIMARS, Javelins, and other systems. This package is one of the largest recently approved, bringing U.S. military aid to Ukraine since 2022 to over $56.2 billion. Associated Press

Kremlin seeks to reassure Tehran after Iranian President’s comments on war in Ukraine. The Kremlin is seeking to reassure Iran after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized Moscow’s intent to clarify its stance to Tehran, stressing their "positive interaction." Pezeshkian, who took office in July, denied supplying missiles to Russia and expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with the West. His comments come amid accusations from Washington that Iran has provided Russia with ballistic missiles, which Iran dismissed as “psychological warfare.” Pezeshkian is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin at an upcoming BRICS summit in October. Novaya Gazeta Europe

Ukraine responds to Czech president's suggestion that Ukrainian territories could be exchanged for peace. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday rejected Czech President Petr Pavel's suggestion that Ukrainian territories could be left under Russian control in exchange for peace. In a statement, the ministry emphasized that Ukraine has put forward a peace plan calling for the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from its internationally recognized borders. It stressed that no middle-ground solutions are acceptable, as such compromises would only delay future conflict. The ministry urged the global community to pressure Russia for a just peace and the full liberation of Ukraine’s territories. Ukrainska Pravda

Zelensky Says Western Allies Must Allow Ukrainian Strikes Deep Into Russia. This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to urge U.S., British, and French leaders to lift restrictions on using Western-supplied weapons for strikes deep into Russia. In a joint interview with Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Zelensky emphasized the need for long-range missile use and increased arms production to equip Ukraine’s forces fully. Zelensky plans to present this case in meetings with President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron. New York Times

Trudeau pushes allies to lift long-range weapons limits for Ukraine at UN. In meetings at the United Nations General Assembly, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday he urged NATO allies to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons against Russia, arguing that current limits hinder Ukraine’s ability to win the war. Trudeau emphasized that Ukraine needs the tools to defend itself, echoing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for more decisive support. This comes as Zelensky prepares to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and push for more military aid. Trudeau also warned against falling victim to Russian disinformation, stressing the broader implications for global democracy. Global News

Russia surveilling Ukrainian nuclear facilities with Chinese satellites for possible future strikes, Zelensky says. In an interview with ABC News aired Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Russia is using Chinese satellites to surveil Ukraine's nuclear facilities, potentially for future strikes. He warned that when Russia takes detailed photos of such sites, it often signals a threat of attacks. Zelensky's comments follow warnings from Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha about Russia targeting critical infrastructure at nuclear power plants. Ukraine has alerted partners and the International Atomic Energy Agency, with three nuclear plants in Ukrainian-held territory at risk due to ongoing Russian strikes. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian soldiers want firepower to win but question if US wants Russia defeated. Ahead of presenting his "victory plan" to U.S. President Joe Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing for permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. Ukrainian soldiers, hopeful but skeptical, question whether the U.S. truly wants Ukraine to defeat Russia. They emphasize that targeting Russia’s rear would weaken enemy logistics and help Ukraine gain the upper hand. With U.S. elections looming, the soldiers await Biden’s decision, while Zelensky stresses that more firepower is crucial to victory. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says its soldiers recaptured a Russian stronghold after hand-to-hand fighting. Ukrainian forces recaptured the key Russian stronghold of Vovchansk, in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, after intense hand-to-hand combat, officials reported on Tuesday. The city is home to the Volchansky chemical aggregate plant, a sprawling complex of 30 tough concrete buildings. The plant has been occupied by Russian troops since May and used as a stronghold in Russia’s efforts to stretch Ukraine’s forces. The recapture demonstrates Ukraine’s resilience despite being outnumbered. The operation coincides with President Volodymy Zelensky’s U.S. visit to secure continued foreign support. Associated Press Forbes

Ministers criticize Hungarian EU presidency for downplaying Ukraine. At a Brussels meeting on Tuesday, European Union ministers criticized Hungary's presidency for downplaying support for Ukraine in its agenda. Latvia’s Dace Melbārde and other representatives emphasized that Ukraine’s defense against Russia should be a top EU priority. Ministers from the Czech Republic, Sweden, Finland, and Poland echoed these concerns, stressing the importance of political, military, and economic support. Hungary, which opposes military aid to Ukraine and has blocked defense payments, faced sharp criticism for sidelining Ukraine’s cause, with ministers urging unity and swift action to assist Ukraine through the European Peace Facility. Euractiv

Video Shows Ukraine's New Drone-Dropped Robot Dog in Action. Ukraine has introduced robotic dogs to its military, which can deliver ammunition, conduct surveillance, and assist in combat operations. These remote-controlled devices, showcased in recent videos, are designed to operate in challenging terrains and provide crucial reconnaissance capabilities. Part of the Ukrainian combat unit “Medoid,” these robot dogs, developed by Brit Alliance, are nearly undetectable due to their small heat signature and can run up to 9 mph. Their introduction offers safer solutions for high-risk missions, influencing military strategies. Newsweek

Russia continues construction of naval base in occupied Abkhazia, Ukraine hints it will be a legitimate target. Russia is accelerating the construction of a naval base in Ochamchire, Abkhazia, a region of Georgia occupied by Russian forces since the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. This base could serve as a new station for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, as its current bases face increasing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky has hinted that the base may become a legitimate target. The construction has raised concerns in Georgia, where some fear it could drag the country into the war. Tensions also exist between Russia and Abkhazia due to recent political disagreements over financial aid. Kyiv Independent

Despite war, head of Kryvyi Rih steel plant ArcelorMittal determined to keep operations running. Mauro Longobardo, CEO of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, emphasized the steel plant’s determination to continue operations despite challenges, including falling iron ore prices, stagnation in the European steel market, and power outages caused by Russian attacks. Over 3,000 employees are serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with 233 killed or missing. Longobardo stressed the need for financial stability but reaffirmed the company’s commitment to overcome obstacles and keep the plant running during the war. Kyiv Independent

Lula at UN touts Brazil-China plan for Ukraine-Russia talks. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's proposal for Ukraine-Russia peace talks resurfaced during his Tuesday speech at the United Nations, prompting criticism from Ukraine. The plan, which Lula has discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin, does not require Russia to withdraw from occupied territories, leading Ukraine to reject it as "destructive." Supported by China, the proposal calls for de-escalation and dialogue. While Russia finds the plan acceptable, Ukraine insists its summit initiative is the only viable path to peace. Lula is seeking support from Global South nations, excluding key European allies of Ukraine. Reuters 

War comes home to Russia in tranquil lakeside town.A week after a Ukrainian drone strike obliterated an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia, on Sept. 18, locals are scrambling to repair their homes amid shock and anger. The blast, which caused heavy damage in the quiet lakeside town far from the front lines, exemplifies how the war is now reaching into Russian territory. While some express defiance, others criticize authorities for negligence in storing munitions. Compared to the devastation and suffering endured by Ukrainians, the hardships in Russia remain limited. Russian state media has given little attention to the incident. Reuters

Russia's Lavrov says UN turns blind eye to Kursk incursion by Ukraine.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday accused the United Nations of ignoring Ukrainian "terrorist groups" committing indiscriminate attacks in Russia's Kursk region, allegedly using Western weapons. He criticized the absence of condemnation from U.N. human rights bodies, including Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Lavrov’s comments reveal hypocrisy, as Russia itself has been widely condemned for indiscriminate bombings and atrocities against Ukrainian civilians since its 2022 invasion. While decrying Ukraine’s actions, Lavrov deflects attention from Russia’s aggression, which Kyiv and global observers view as an imperial conquest aimed at erasing Ukraine’s sovereignty.Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, September 24, 2024. Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Ukraine’s Vuhledar, but its capture is unlikely to provide significant operational advantages for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots highlight the vulnerabilities of Russian logistics, which still benefit from Western-imposed restrictions on Ukrainian attacks. Russia continues to deepen its relationship with China, leveraging bilateral ties to support its war efforts in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense faces criticism for misusing specialized personnel in infantry-led assaults, failing to address broader military management issues.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced west of the Kursk Oblast salient and in eastern Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War       

Opinion: It’s (Still) Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia. Timothy Ash argues that U.S. and European support for Ukraine remains highly cost-effective. Despite concerns over rising aid, Ash highlights that U.S. defense aid amounts to only 3-4% of Western defense spending and 0.3% of U.S. gross domestic product. This investment, alongside Ukrainian sacrifices, has significantly weakened Russia’s military capability. Ash emphasizes that continued support is crucial, not just for Ukraine’s defense but for the security of Europe and the West, as Ukraine acts as a buffer against further Russian aggression. The U.S. also benefits economically through increased defense sales. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

Biden, at U.N., under pressure to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.  In his final speech to the United Nations Tuesday, President Joe Biden declared that the U.S. and NATO defense  of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, “ensured the survival of Ukraine as a free nation.” He acknowledged that Ukraine’s survival wasn’t guaranteed.  “We cannot grow weary, we cannot look away,” he said.  Key European leaders want Biden to go farther than generalities and rhetoric – to allow Ukraine to use longer-range weapons supplied by NATO countries to strike bases deep inside Russian territory.  Finland’s president Alexander Stubb, whose nation shares a long  border with Russia and who will speak on behalf of the Nordic nations at the U.N. General Assembly, said in an interview published Tuesday with the New York Times, that the U.S. must “allow Ukraine to fight without one hand tied behind its back and to lift those restrictions….What we need to do is to convince Putin that there’s no point for him to continue this war, and I think Putin needs to lose both the war and the peace, because the only thing that he understands is power.”  New York Times  New York Times 

U.S. seeks to hold fentanyl talks with China at November’s APEC summit. Washington plans to discuss efforts to curb the spread of deadly fentanyl with China at the upcoming APEC summit in November, according to a senior U.S. official. This comes after President Biden announced a 10% decrease in U.S. fentanyl-related deaths over the past year. Fentanyl was also a topic of discussion between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a previous summit in California. The U.S. is urging Beijing to take stronger action to halt the production of chemicals that can be used to manufacture the drug. The official expressed optimism that fentanyl will be a key agenda item at the summit. Reuters

American lawmakers say Canada, Mexico must cease Chinese forced-labor imports.A group of U.S. lawmakers is urging Canada and Mexico to implement stronger measures to prevent the import of goods made with forced labor from China, specifically from the Xinjiang region, which is a major source of cotton and solar-panel components. The lawmakers suggest that Canada and Mexico should adopt laws similar to the U.S. ban on imports linked to Xinjiang, as there are concerns that importers might use these countries as alternative routes to bring illicit goods into the U.S. There have been reports, for example, that solar panels denied entry to the U.S. have been redirected to Canada for re-entry attempts. Washington’s crackdown on goods from Xinjiang began in 2022 under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which presumes that all products from that region are made with forced labor and can be blocked from entry; it has already blocked or reviewed over 5,200 shipments under this law. While Ottawa has agreed to block forced labor-linked imports and passed a law requiring companies to disclose forced labor risks in their supply chains, critics argue that more needs to be done. Wall Street Journal 

Blinken fails to comply with subpoena on Afghanistan withdrawal, U.S. House committee seeks contempt charge. A GOP-led U.S. congressional committee has recommended holding Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena related to the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The House Foreign Affairs Committee voted 26-25 along party lines to advance the recommendation, with all Republicans voting in favor and all Democrats opposed. The committee's chair, Republican Representative Michael McCaul, claimed that Blinken declined to appear at any time during the month of September. Blinken was attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. The recommendation for contempt could lead to criminal prosecution if the full House approves it, though no vote has been scheduled. Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has become highly politicized, and Blinken has already testified multiple times on this issue, and provided extensive documentation. Reuters

US sanctions Mexican businesses linked to Sinaloa Cartel. The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday announced that it has imposed sanctions on two Mexican businesses—a chain of ice cream shops and a local pharmacy—for allegedly using profits from fentanyl smuggling to fund their operations connected to the violent Sinaloa cartel. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) stated that individuals previously cited for money laundering established these businesses in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora. The Sinaloa cartel is known for using proceeds from international drug trafficking to set up various businesses to launder money. The sanctions are part of the Biden administration’s broader efforts to combat drug trafficking, particularly the fentanyl trade, which is responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths in the U.S. annually. The move follows recent tensions between the two nations, with Washington rejecting accusations that it bears responsibility for the rise in cartel violence in Sinaloa.  Associated Press 

Guatemala to send Haiti 150 military police officers to counter gang violence. Guatemala intends on deploying 150 military police officers to Haiti to aid the embattled country in its struggle against powerful gangs. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo made the announcement at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, though he did not disclose the starting date for the operation. This move comes as a Kenyan-led, U.N.-backed mission in Haiti faces significant challenges with insufficient personnel and funding. Currently, around 400 Kenyan police officers, along with small contingents from Jamaica and Belize, are in the Caribbean nation to address gang violence, which affects 80% of Port-au-Prince.  Associated Press 

EUROPE

Russia has secret war drones project in China, intel sources say. According to intelligence sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, Russia has established a program in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for its war against Ukraine. The Russian weapons company IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of Almaz-Antey, has been working with Chinese specialists to develop a new drone model, the Garpiya-3 (G3), which has been flight-tested in China. This partnership enables Kupol to mass-produce these drones for deployment in Ukraine. While China denies involvement in supplying Russia with weapons, analysts note that this development, if confirmed, would mark a significant escalation in China's support for Russia. The G3 drones have a range of 2,000 km with a payload of 50 kg, and Kupol has reportedly taken delivery of seven drones from China. The intelligence also suggests that a joint Russian-Chinese drone research and production center may be planned in China's Xinjiang province, signaling further cooperation in drone manufacturing. However, experts caution that China may avoid full exposure to international sanctions over its role in supplying Russia with drones.  Reuters

Austrian far-right leader faces high-stakes election amid controversy and opposition.  Herbert Kickl, the controversial leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO), is a central figure in the upcoming parliamentary election, where he poses a significant challenge to the ruling conservative People's Party (OVP). Known for his cutting and provocative style, Kickl has become the focal point of the election, which some view as a referendum on his leadership. Despite having one of the lowest approval ratings among top Austrian politicians, Kickl's Islam-critical, anti-immigration FPO has been leading in the polls, capitalizing on economic struggles and public dissatisfaction with the OVP-Greens coalition government. While his critics, including Chancellor Karl Nehammer, have painted him as an extremist and a threat to security and democracy, Kicki’s campaign portrays him as a "people's chancellor.” Reuters

Russia working on law to ban child-free ‘propaganda’ amid birth rate downturn. Russia’s parliament is developing legislation that would ban the promotion of a "child-free" lifestyle, with heavy fines for what authorities describe as "childlessness propaganda." Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma and an ally of President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday announced that the law aims to curb content on the internet, in films, advertising, and media that encourages people to consciously avoid having children. This move aligns with Putin's emphasis on "traditional values" and his call for Russian women to have at least three children to secure the country's future. The urgency behind this legislation has increased following the publication of recent data showing Russia's birth rate at its lowest in 25 years, alongside rising mortality rates, all amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Volodin condemned those who “show disrespect for motherhood and fatherhood,” asserting that "a friendly and large family is the basis of a strong state." Reuters

MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Navy ship damaged while resupplying U.S. carrier in Mideast.   The USNS Big Horn was damaged after it refueled the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group.  The Lincoln is patrolling the Arabian Sea amid ongoing Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah conflicts.  A U.S. official called the damage to the refueler an inconvenience, but said the fleet could operate without it. The strike group’s destroyers can refuel in port and can transport aviation fuel for fighter jets and surveillance aircraft on the carrier. Associated Press 

Iran seems willing to re-engage on nuclear file, says IAEA chief.Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA), expressed optimism following recent talks with Iranian officials in New York, sensing a greater willingness from Tehran to engage meaningfully with the agency. Grossi hopes to visit Iran in October to meet with President Masoud Pezeshkian, aiming to restore proper technical discussions on Iran's nuclear activities. Long-standing issues have strained relations, including Iran's decision to bar uranium-enrichment inspectors and its failure to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites. Grossi, after his talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, said he detected “an expressed willingness to re-engage with us in a more meaningful fashion.” Grossi emphasized the need for a new approach to achieve results, as  previous methods aimed at halting Iran’s attempts to advance its nuclear program have been ineffective. Reuters

Iranian president says his nation aims to play a ‘constructive role’ in global affairs. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered his first speech at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, signaling his desire to initiate a "constructive" chapter in Tehran's international relations. He also stressed that other countries, including the U.S., must contribute to this effort. Pezeshkian, a reformer who took office in July, expressed a more measured tone compared to his predecessors. He stated his aim to position the country for an effective role in the global order, particularly as Iran's supreme leader has recently indicated a willingness to renew negotiations with Washnington over Tehran's nuclear program. Pezeshkian also took aim at Israel, accusing it of committing "atrocities" in its conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He reiterated his nation’s grievances against the U.S., including sanctions as well as the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. Pezeshkian, who called for the recognition of Iran's security concerns and cooperation on mutual challenges, concluded by urging other states to listen to Iran's message and consider sanctions relief. Neither the U.S. nor Israel immediately responded. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

China announces first launch of ICBM into Pacific Ocean. China successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean Wednesday.  The ICBM, carrying a dummy warhead, was launched by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force at 08:44 a.m. Beijing time Wednesday and "fell into expected sea areas," the Chinese defense ministry said in a statement.  China "informed the countries concerned in advance," Xinhua reported.   The launch "effectively tested the performance of weapons and equipment and the training level of the troops, and achieved the expected goal," Xinhua said. Reuters  South China Morning Post  

U.S. missile system to stay in the Philippines in spite of China’s protests. Two Filipino officials announced on Wednesday that Washington and Manila have decided to keep a U.S. mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines indefinitely, despite strong objections from China. The Typhon missile system, which includes the Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk missiles, was initially brought to the Philippines in April for joint military exercises. While originally scheduled to be removed by the end of the month, officials are now considering extending its stay until the next annual U.S.-Philippine military exercises in the spring. Philippine military officials have shown strong interest in keeping the missile system permanently, maintaining that they are integral for national defense. Beijing has regularly expressed alarm over the deployment, warning that it could destabilize the region. However, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. on Tuesday dismissed China's concerns as interference in Manila’s internal affairs, underscoring the country's right to strengthen its defensive capabilities. “Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass house,” he said, suggesting that the Asian giant demolish its own nuclear arsenal, remove its ballistic missile capabilities, and leave the West Philippines Sea and Mischief Reef. Associated Press 

North Korea promises to retaliate for U.S. submarine’s stop in South Korea. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, vowed to enhance Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities in response to the recent arrival of a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea. Her statement, issued through state media on Tuesday, criticized the U.S. military’s actions as aggressive and “frantic,” and called for North Korea to “continuously and limitlessly” strengthen its nuclear deterrent. She suggested that the North may target South Korean sites where American military assets are stationed. The Monday arrival of the USS Vermont, a nuclear-powered submarine, in Busan is part of Washington’s increased show of force against North Korea's evolving nuclear threats. Pyongyang has responded to similar visits in the past with missile tests and heightened rhetoric. Associated Press 

AFRICA

U.S. greenlights possible $740 million sale of Stinger missiles to Egypt. The U.S. Department of State has authorized a potential $740 million sale of 720 Stinger missiles to Egypt, the Pentagon announced on Thursday. These missiles, which have been in high demand due to their effectiveness in Ukraine against Russian air assaults, will be mounted on vehicles with Avenger launcher systems rather than being shoulder-fired. The primary contractor for this deal will be RTX Corp. This order from Egypt, which follows $700 million worth of orders from NATO members earlier this year, will further extend the production backlog for Stinger missiles through 2029. Reuters Barron's

Russia to sell telecoms, surveillance satellites to West African military regimes. Russia has signed an agreement with the military juntas of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to sell telecoms and surveillance satellites. These satellites are intended to enhance border surveillance, national security, and secure communications in their ongoing struggle against Islamist insurgencies in the Sahel region. The agreement with Russia's aerospace agency, Roscosmos, also aims to improve disaster monitoring and response, as well as to provide internet, telephone, and broadcasting services in remote areas. The deal follows the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States by these three countries to strengthen military cooperation and now broader security efforts. Despite receiving Russian military support, including weapons and mercenaries, the security situation in the volatile region remains precarious. Moscow's involvement in the Sahel has grown as relations between these African countries and their former Western allies have deteriorated. BBC New York Times 

Burkina Faso junta claims it foiled coup plot after facing criticism over jihadi massacre.  Burkina Faso's military junta has claimed that it uncovered and foiled an international plot to overthrow it, linking the alleged scheme to the massacre of hundreds of civilians by Islamist insurgents in August. However, critics suggest the regime is using this claim to divert blame for the nation’s worsening security situation and the brutal killings. The junta, which seized power in a 2022 coup with promises to combat jihadist violence, has instead experienced the escalation of violence, which has led to increased public dissatisfaction. The massacre for which the regime apparently seeks to escape culpability occurred in Barsalogho on August 24; al Qaeda-affiliated insurgents attacked and killed civilians who had been ordered by the military to dig defensive trenches in a dangerous area. The junta has been condemned for not protecting these civilians and for failing to take responsibility for the massacre. In a statement, the junta accused opposition figures, allegedly backed by Western intelligence and European mercenaries, of orchestrating the destabilization plot. It also claimed that the plan originated from nations like Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria. However, no evidence was provided. Critics continue to express concern about the junta's repression of opposition through abductions, torture, and forced conscription. Reuters Associated Press 

Sepsis, malnutrition plague South Darfur as war drags on. Doctors Without Borders announced on Tuesday that mothers and children in Sudan’s South Darfur are facing one of the world's worst health emergencies.  The organization reported 114 maternal deaths from January to mid-August 2024, with over half occurring in medical settings, primarily due to sepsis. Malnutrition among children has reached critical levels, with a significant percentage of young children acutely or severely malnourished. Sudan’s bloody civil war between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has severely disrupted access to healthcare. The situation is particularly dire in Nyala and Kas hospitals, where many women arrive already in critical condition due to high transportation costs and a lack of functional medical facilities. MSF described the crisis as unprecedented, with preventable deaths occurring due to a breakdown in healthcare services and a lack of international aid. MSF remains one of the few humanitarian organizations still operating in the region. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Google’s Mandiant reports dozens of Fortune 100 companies duped by North Korean hiring scam.Dozens of Fortune 100 companies have inadvertently hired North Korean IT workers using fake identities, according to a report released Monday by Google's Mandiant unit.  These workers, sent by the North Korean government and primarily based in China and Russia, have been securing jobs at multiple American companies to generate revenue for Pyongyang and potentially gain access to sensitive company systems for future cyberattacks, or to insert backdoors in systems. The scheme involves using stolen or fictitious identities and U.S.-based "laptop farms" that allow North Koreans to work remotely. American authorities have arrested several individuals involved in facilitating this operation, which has generated millions of dollars for North Korea's weapons programs. Mandiant urged companies to enhance their hiring processes, including stricter background checks, on-camera interviews, and monitoring the use of remote administration tools to prevent such infiltration. The U.S. government has taken steps to combat this scheme, including shutting down websites and seizing funds linked to the operation. The Record 

Telegram crackdown: app to provide authorities with phone numbers, IP addresses of  “bad actors.”  Telegram founder Pavel Durov, who is facing legal trouble with French prosecutors for his popular messaging platform, said that the app updated its terms of service to allow the disclosure of users' IP addresses and phone numbers to authorities if they violate the platform's rules. Previously, Telegram only disclosed such information if a court confirmed a user was suspected of terrorism, a situation that has never occurred. The new policy applies to a broader range of rule violations and includes a legal review before any data is shared. The update aims to discourage illegal activities, such as using Telegram's search feature to sell illegal goods. In France, Durov is being investigated for allegedly facilitating illegal activities on the platform, including child pornography and drug sales. Durov acknowledged that Telegram's rapid growth to 950 million users has made it more vulnerable to criminal misuse, and asserted his commitment to improving the platform's safety and security. Telegram has also enhanced its search feature using AI to prevent the spread of illegal content. The Record Wall Street Journal 

TikTok bans dozens of Russia-backed media accounts amid security concerns. TikTok has blocked numerous accounts linked to Russian state-owned media, including RT and TV-Novosti, due to security concerns ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election. This action follows similar moves by Meta, which also banned Kremlin-backed media outlets for engaging in misleading influence operations. TikTok previously limited the visibility of such accounts by labeling them as state-affiliated, but has now removed them entirely, including nearly 40 accounts associated with Sputnik, another Russian state media outlet. The ban aligns with U.S. policy efforts to combat Russian influence campaigns, though TikTok's own future in the U.S. remains cloudy due to concerns about its parent company ByteDance's links to the Chinese government. The U.S. government has been active in countering Moscow’s recurrent disinformation efforts, recently removing 32 websites used for influence operations and charging individuals linked to RT for spreading Kremlin-aligned propaganda. Other tech companies, like Google, have also taken steps to remove Russian disinformation channels.  The Record 

Qualcomm's possible bid for chipmaker Intel highlights their products. Qualcomm has approached Intel about a potential buyout, which could create a significant player in the semiconductor industry by combining Qualcomm's strengths in mobile chips with Intel's dominance in PC and server processors. Intel is a leader in the PC market with its Core series processors and Xeon chips for servers, while Qualcomm is well-known for its Snapdragon processors used in smartphones and tablets. Recently, Qualcomm has also been expanding into the laptop processor market. In terms of manufacturing, Intel produces its own chips in-house at its global facilities, whereas Qualcomm relies on external manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Foundry for chip production. The two companies also differ in chip architecture, with Intel primarily using x86 architecture, common in PCs and servers, and Qualcomm using Arm Holdings’ architecture, which is prevalent in mobile devices due to its low power consumption. Although these architectures are not directly compatible, there are existing solutions that enable some level of interoperability. Both companies have a presence in the automotive industry. A merger between Qualcomm and Intel would bring together their complementary strengths across these various sectors, but it would also involve navigating the differences in their chip architectures and manufacturing approaches. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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