Report for Wednesday, October 2, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Iran’s missile barrage ineffective, but Netanyahu vows retaliation and Biden backs him.

Ukraine’s east buckling under improved Russian tactics and superior firepower

Chinese, Russian coast guard vessels entered Arctic through Bering Strait

Russian diplomat says nation is prepared for “long-term confrontation” with U.S.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch drone boat that hits ship in Red Sea as missile strikes another

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Iran Targets Israel – and This Time, Signs Point To Wider War  The Cipher Brief

Why the Buck Stops with Bulgaria When It Comes to Russian Interference in the Balkans  The Cipher Brief

Russia's Nuclear Partnership with North Korea The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

 Iran’s missile barrage ineffective, but Netanyahu vows retaliation and Biden backs him.   “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel,” President Joe Biden told reporters after Iran fired 180-plus missiles at Israel Tuesday.  Although Iran’s barrage inflicted one civilian death and no large-scale damage, thanks to successful interceptions by Israel and the U.S., Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swore to retaliate, saying Iran “made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.”  The Biden administration backed him up publicly.  National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the barrage represented a “significant escalation. The White House said Tehran will face “severe consequences.” “We are now going to look at what the appropriate next steps are to secure, first and foremost, American interests, and then to promote stability to the maximum extent possible as we go forward,” Sullivan told reporters. He didn’t spell out what those consequences might be.  Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters that the USS Bulkeley and USS Cole, deployed in the eastern Mediterranean near Israel, fired about a dozen interceptors at Iran’s ballistic missiles. Officials were still assessing how many struck a target. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee in November’s presidential election, said she supported Biden’s decision to provide U.S. military support to Israel. She said the United States would “never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend U.S. forces and interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists.”  Former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, said Biden and Harris were “leading us to the brink of World War III.” Speaking at a campaign event, he said their policies were to blame for the current situation because “the so-called enemy doesn’t respect our country any longer.” After Iran’s attack was done, the Israel Defense Forces launched new strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg

The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating. What will the U.S. do?  The U.N. Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting for Wednesday to try to head off a worse escalation in the Mideast. That will be tough.  After the Iranian barrage, Israeli military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, posted on Telegram, “Iran’s attack is a severe and dangerous escalation. There will be consequences. Our defensive and offensive capabilities are at the highest levels of readiness. Our operational plans are ready. We will respond wherever, whenever, and however we choose, in accordance with the directive of the government of Israel.”  When and how Israel will counterattack was not disclosed, but many analysts see it as inevitable.  “I don't know if anybody can say ‘take a win’ right now because the situation is too volatile,” former CIA Senior Executive Glenn Corn told The Cipher Brief Tuesday. “I have a feeling that the Israelis will respond.” “There was never any doubt that the US would support Israel in defending itself from the missiles,” former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Gary Grappo told The Cipher Brief.  “Now, will it join Israel in an offensive strike against Iran? That is something we have not done overtly but is now a real possibility. It would send a very sobering and equation-altering message to the Iranians. And if we do, where and how will we strike?”  Associated Press The Cipher Brief 

Israeli warplanes strike Hezbollah weapons caches, production sites in Beirut.  The Israeli Defense Forces posted on Telegram Tuesday that in recent days, IAF fighter jets carried out a series of strikes in Beirut against “a number of weapons production facilities and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.”  The IDF didn’t say where the strikes occurred but suggested they were in residential neighborhoods. “The Hezbollah terrorist organization has deliberately primarily embedded its weapons production facilities and weaponry beneath residential buildings in the heart of the city of Beirut, hiding them in populated areas,” the IDF post said. IDF/Telegram

UK helped stop Iranian missile attack on Israel.  British Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed Tuesday that “British forces have this evening played their part in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East.” Healey said that UK forces were “involved in an operation to shoot down missiles fired by Iran.” Politico 

U.S. unveils sanctions on extremist West Bank settler group for brutality against Palestinians.Hilltop Youth, a loosely-organized extremist settler group based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, was saddled with U.S. sanctions on Tuesday for committing violence against Palestinians and their property. The group has been accused of carrying out killings, mass arson, and "price tag" attacks, retaliating against perceived obstacles to settlement construction. Additionally, diplomatic sanctions were placed on two Israeli settlers, Eitan Yardeni and Avichai Suissa, for their involvement in attacks and for leading groups that promote settler expansion, which has fueled violence and instability in the area. The sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans but may be difficult to enforce due to the decentralized nature of Hilltop Youth. The Biden administration has faced criticism for its relatively limited actions against Israeli extremists, as attacks against Palestinians have seen a rapid surge. Associated Press Times of Israel Jerusalem Post 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

ANALYSIS–Ukraine faces its darkest hour. In eastern Ukraine, soldiers express frustration over Western hesitance to permit missile strikes on Russian territory, which they believe would shift the war in their favor. Facing relentless Russian advances, commanders now focus on preserving lives rather than full territorial restoration. “It’s quite hard to imagine we will be able to move the enemy back to the borders of 1991,” one commander said. “If the US turns off the spigot, we’re finished,” another officer said. Weariness in Ukraine is evident, with many soldiers and civilians supporting peace negotiations to avoid an endless war. “Society is exhausted,” says Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee of the Ukrainian parliament. President Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure from both the battlefield and Western allies. His recent visit to the U.S. did not secure key concessions. He continues to push for NATO membership and permission for long-range strikes. Financial Times

ANALYSIS–Ukraine’s east buckling under improved Russian tactics and superior firepower. Ukrainian forces are struggling to withstand Russian advances in the Donetsk region as Russian troops adopt improved tactics combining artillery, drones, and small assault teams. Russian forces, bolstered by superior firepower and better battlefield communication, are reclaiming territory lost in 2022, particularly in southern Donetsk. Ukrainian units, like the 33rd Mechanized Brigade and the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, face overwhelming odds, retreating under relentless Russian attacks. The fight has shifted from large-scale "meat assaults" to small, well-trained Russian units storming defenses. Equipment shortages and the depletion of experienced soldiers hamper Ukrainian efforts to counter these tactics. The strategic Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has stretched Ukrainian personnel, contributing to losses in Donetsk. As civilians flee the conflict zones, Russia’s willingness to sacrifice troops for territorial gains continues to apply pressure on Ukraine’s forces, with both sides suffering heavy casualties in an increasingly brutal battle. Washington Post

Ukraine Outpost Falls to Russian Forces After Months of Fighting. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the strategic coal-mining town of Vuhledar in the eastern Donetsk region after months of fighting. Russian troops now control the area, which offers a key battlefield advantage with its elevated position and proximity to Russian-controlled rail links between Donetsk and Crimea. Vuhledar’s capture improves Russian logistics and artillery positions while threatening Ukrainian-held areas to the north. Ukrainian soldiers describe the situation as dire, with Russian troops outgunning and outmanning defenders after months of relentless assaults. This move comes as Russian forces gradually gain ground elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast, gains that mark their fastest advance in eastern Ukraine in over two years. Bloomberg New York Times Reuters Reuters

How significant is Russia's capture of the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar? Vuhledar, with a pre-war population of 14,000 people in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, is a coal-mining town with strategic value due to its elevated terrain and position at the junction of eastern and southern battlefronts. Built by the Soviet Union in the 1960s around coal mines, the town sits near key supply lines connecting Crimea to the Donbas region. Its control enables Russia to advance further in Donetsk and disrupt Ukrainian military operations. Recent fighting has left the town heavily damaged. Reuters Meduza

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 50 over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed seven people and injured over 50, authorities said Wednesday. Six people were killed in Kherson when a market and public transport stop were targeted, and one person died in Zaporizhzhia during a guided aerial bomb attack. Ukrainian forces downed 11 of 32 Shahed drones launched by Russia, with some returning to Russia due to electronic warfare. In Odesa Oblast, Russian drones targeted port infrastructure, injuring two, including a Turkish citizen. Attacks on Kharkiv and other regions caused further casualties, including children. Russia also damaged an international ferry crossing on the Ukrainian-Romanian border. Kyiv Independent

Russia Attacks Ukrainian NATO Checkpoint. A Russian drone strike targeted the Orlivka-Isaccea border checkpoint between Ukraine's Odesa region and NATO member Romania early Wednesday, leading to a temporary suspension of services. The attack also hit port infrastructure in the Izmail district, injuring two lorry drivers. Ukrainian authorities halted operations at the checkpoint until 11 a.m. local time. This follows previous incidents where Russian missile debris landed in NATO territories during the ongoing war on Ukraine. Further details are expected. Newsweek

Poland says too few Ukrainians interested in joining the Ukrainian Legion. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said that few Ukrainians have volunteered for the Ukrainian Legion in Poland, despite earlier expectations of forming a brigade. The Legion, part of a security agreement between Ukraine and Poland, was intended to be trained and armed by Poland, with Ukraine responsible for recruitment. Although Poland has trained 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers, the recruitment for the Legion has been unexpectedly low. “The number of people who were supposed to volunteer on the Ukrainian side is too small. These declarations were very high at the beginning, even suggesting that one brigade, i.e., several thousand people, could be formed. However, this did not happen," Kosiniak-Kamysz explained. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine’s Vovchansk plant control may aid further northern counteroffensive. A UK Defense Ministry intelligence update Tuesday reported that Ukraine’s recapture of the Volchansky chemical plant in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, will likely aid further counteroffensive operations. This strategic victory limits Russian opportunities to advance in the region and strengthens Ukraine’s push towards the Russia-Ukraine border. The plant, previously a key Russian stronghold, had been contested since May. Russia diverted forces to Kursk Oblast, weakening its presence in Vovchansk. Ukraine’s control over the plant will bolster northern counteroffensive efforts and disrupt Russian objectives in Kharkiv. Euromaidan Press

Russia's autumn conscription: How many of the 133,000 draftees will end up in Ukraine? Russia has launched its latest conscription campaign, aiming to recruit 133,000 individuals for military service, raising concerns about their involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine. While Russian law prohibits deploying conscripts to combat with less than four months of training, many are coerced into signing contracts to serve as professional soldiers. NGOs like “Get Lost” report widespread pressure on conscripts to sign, including false promises of safer assignments. In some cases, documents are falsified. The Kremlin continues to avoid large-scale mobilization, relying on conscripts and short-term volunteers to sustain operations in Ukraine. Euronews

Russia’s Army Plans to Enlist 20K Criminal Defendants for Ukraine War. Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to enlist 20,000 criminal defendants from pre-trial detention to fight in Ukraine, according to the investigative news outlet IStories. The plan involves selecting 100 individuals from each of Russia’s 210 pre-trial detention centers. Authorities aim to recruit 40% of detainees for military service to avoid a broader mobilization that could trigger public unrest. This follows legislation allowing criminal defendants to serve in the military. The move comes after the Defense Ministry exhausted its pool of convicted prisoners willing to volunteer for the war. The bill is expected to be signed into law soon by President Vladimir Putin. Moscow Times

Ukraine investigating the alleged shooting of 16 POWs by Russia. Ukraine has launched an investigation into the alleged execution of 16 Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian troops on the eastern front. Ukraine's prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, described the incident as the largest reported case of POW executions and part of a deliberate policy by Russia. A video of the alleged shooting has surfaced online, though Reuters has not verified its authenticity. Ukraine has previously documented over 130,000 alleged Russian war crimes since the February 2022 invasion. Moscow has not commented on the recent accusations. Reuters

Ukraine boosts defense production, successfully tests ballistic missile, Zelensky says. Ukraine has boosted its defense production, increasing artillery and mortar ammunition output 25-fold in the first half of 2024 compared to all of 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday at the second international defense industry forum. Zelensky also revealed Ukraine's successful test of a domestically produced ballistic missile. The forum in Kyiv featured 300 companies from 30 countries. Ukraine’s expanded capacity includes the production of 4 million drones annually and 15-20 Bohdana howitzers per month. Kyiv Independent Reuters

One of Europe's largest arms manufacturers establishes a subsidiary in Ukraine. The French-German arms conglomerate KNDS, producer of Leopard tanks and Caesar howitzers, has established a subsidiary in Kyiv to maintain and repair KNDS weaponry used by Ukraine. This subsidiary, KNDS Ukraine, will assist cooperation with Ukraine's government and defense industry, while also planning joint production of 155-mm artillery ammunition and spare parts using advanced manufacturing technologies. KNDS supplies or has contracted nearly 800 units of weaponry to Ukraine, solidifying its position as a key industrial partner. Ukrainska Pravda

Anger in Moscow at Putin’s war spending.Vladimir Putin’s plans to hike defense spending to the highest level on record have sparked outrage among some people in Russia as the war with Ukraine drags into the third year. Russia is expected to allocate over 40 percent of its total budget to defense and security, committing to prolonging the invasion of Ukraine and confronting the West. Several in Russia objected to the spending, which was more than the money allocated for the country's education and social welfare sectors. It’s a “shame and a disgrace,” Irina, a 70-year-old pensioner, said to Agence-France Presse. She said the government is spending on war when the “country has no money to treat its children.” The Independent

Moscow Patriarchate’s church in Ukraine is seen as a security threat. The Ukrainian law banning the Moscow Patriarchate addresses national security concerns rather than religious freedom. The Moscow Patriarchate, linked to Russia’s intelligence services and aligned with the Kremlin, poses a direct threat by providing intelligence to Russia, with dozens of clergy convicted for spying. This church’s widespread network in Ukraine can relay sensitive information, potentially jeopardizing military operations. Patriarch Kirill, a supporter of Russia’s war and the "Russian World" ideology, uses religious influence to justify aggression, exacerbating Ukraine’s defense challenges. The ban targets the Patriarchate's activities, while worshippers willing to condemn the war are exempt. Critics, including Pope Francis, have expressed concerns about religious freedoms, but Ukrainian officials argue the law safeguards the nation from hostile actions masquerading as spiritual guidance. The bill encourages worshippers to join Ukraine’s independent Orthodox Church, countering Russia’s religious and ideological control over Ukrainian territories, especially in occupied areas. Euronews

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, October 1, 2024. Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal, but further rapid gains are uncertain. Some Russian sources doubt the immediate potential for breakthroughs after Vuhledar’s capture. Ukraine emphasizes success in reducing Russia's artillery ammunition advantage, partly due to strikes on Russian depots. The United Nations Human Rights Office documents rising Ukrainian civilian casualties and systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs, contrasting with limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. Russia’s 2025-2027 budget allocates funds for Kremlin propagandists. Russian authorities plan to increase recruitment in pre-trial detention centers.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Biden is failing Ukraine — without change, Trump and Harris will too. Joseph Bosco argues that President Joe Biden's policy of withholding necessary military support from Ukraine mirrors Donald Trump’s earlier withdrawal strategy in Afghanistan, potentially paving the way for a future administration, whether Trump's or Harris's, to reduce support for Ukraine. While Biden's rhetoric on Ukraine has been strong, his refusal to provide key weapons has hindered Ukraine's efforts to reclaim occupied territories. Both Trump and Biden's hesitance risks a prolonged war, with Trump favoring concessions to Russia and Biden fearing escalation. Bosco emphasizes that Ukraine needs decisive U.S. support to maintain its sovereignty. The Hill

Opinion: China Should Get Serious About Peace in Ukraine. Minxin Pei argues that while China’s current peace efforts in Ukraine are seen as insincere by the West, Beijing has a growing opportunity to play a more effective role. Pei suggests that China should push for a credible ceasefire, as a prolonged war undermines China’s relations with Europe and strengthens the US-led alliances. Although China cannot force Russia into major concessions, Pei believes that Beijing could leverage its influence by limiting military support to Russia, encouraging an armistice that aligns with China’s long-term strategic interests. Bloomberg

AMERICAS

Chinese, Russian coast guard vessels entered Arctic through Bering Strait. The U.S. Coast Guard has reported detecting two Russian and two Chinese coast guard vessels in the Bering Sea on Saturday. Their joint passage through the waterway, which separates Russia from Alaska, underscores the mounting collaboration between the two superpowers in the Arctic. The ships were seen about five miles within Russia's exclusive economic zone, marking the northernmost location where Chinese vessels have been observed by the U.S. Coast Guard. This operation follows an earlier Russian-Chinese bomber flight off the coast of Alaska in July. In a statement, China’s coast guard explained that the joint patrol, which came in the wake of a recent joint drill, aimed to enforce fishing regulations in the North Pacific. And on Tuesday, a Chinese coast guard fleet sailed into the Arctic sea for a patrol with its Russian counterparts, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. The increasing military cooperation between China and Russia has raised concerns in Washington, particularly due to Beijing's support for Moscow amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Associated Press Reuters

U.S. dockworkers strike for the first time in nearly half a century, stopping half the country's ocean shipping. The movement of about half the U.S.’s ocean shipping has screeched to a halt, as American East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers launched their first major strike in almost 50 years on Tuesday. The situation erupted after labor contract negotiations with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) broke down over wage disputes. The strike halts shipments of goods, including food and automobiles, across dozens of ports from Maine to Texas, with analysts estimating economic losses of billions per day. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), which represents 45,000 port workers, rejected USMX’s offer, citing insufficient pay increases and opposition to port automation. The Biden administration, while supporting higher wages for workers, has said it will not use federal powers to end the strike, urging employers to negotiate a fair deal. The strike, now heading into a second day, could continue to escalate if negotiations do not resume. Reuters BBC Associated Press 

Watchdog condemns DEA for failing to report torture, human rights violations by Latin American partners. The Justice Department’s Inspector General has condemned the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) for delaying the reporting of human rights violations by its Latin American law enforcement partners, including incidents of waterboarding, suffocation, and torture of crime suspects. Under the Leahy Act, the U.S. is prohibited from assisting foreign security forces that violate human rights, and the DEA is required to vet and report any violations committed by these partners. An audit from the federal watchdog found five instances in which the DEA failed to notify the State Department about potential violations, delaying reports for up to nine months. The Inspector General also noted that the agency hired nearly 300 special agents and analysts who either failed, or provided disqualifying info, during polygraph exams. The DEA had not required polygraphs until 2019, when it tightened its hiring processes in the wake of a string of scandals involving agents conspiring with drug cartels. Associated Press U.S. Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General  

Guatemalan police officers detained for links to migrant trafficking network. Guatemalan authorities have arrested 25 individuals, mostly active police officers, involved in a human smuggling ring operating along a route used by migrants heading to the U.S., according to Interior Minister Francisco Jimenez. The group, known as "Los Rs," used corrupt police officers to facilitate the smuggling of migrants through Guatemala, accumulating millions in the process. In addition to the police, 11 civilians were arrested for crimes including money laundering. Both the U.S. embassy and the Department of Homeland Security assisted in the investigation. The trafficking network reportedly exploited nearly 10,000 migrants. Reuters France 24

China is ‘supporting our enemy’ by trading with Russia, says BlackRock. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, on Tuesday criticized China for economically supporting Russia amid Russia's war on Ukraine, urging businesses to reconsider their ties with Beijing. Speaking at a Berlin conference, Fink highlighted China's role as Russia's largest trading partner and emphasized that businesses should reassess their investments in China due to its backing of the Kremlin. BlackRock, which has a presence in China, will "re-evaluate" its operations. Fink’s remarks underscore China's economic ties with Russia, especially as China-Russia trade reached $240 billion last year, helping Russia withstand Western sanctions. The Telegraph

French and US companies to invest $10 billion to extract oil off Suriname’s coast. France’s TotalEnergies and U.S.-based APA Corp. will invest $10 billion to extract oil off Suriname’s coast, marking the country’s largest-ever investment. The GranMorgu project, expected to produce 220,000 barrels per day by mid-2028, targets an offshore area with 700 million barrels of oil. Suriname’s national oil company, Staatsolie, holds a 20% stake and plans to issue bonds to finance its participation. President Chan Santokhi called the project a “game-changer,” aiming to boost living standards in the country, which faces significant debt and an IMF restructuring program. TotalEnergies promises to minimize environmental impact. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Mark Rutte playing it safe on first day as NATO chief. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister, took over as NATO Secretary-General on Tuesday, stressing continuity in his leadership while pledging to continue supporting Ukraine. During his first press conference as chief, Rutte acknowledged the controversial role of GOP nominee Donald Trump in pushing Europe towards greater defense spending, while also admitting that his own country, the Netherlands, only recently met the alliance’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Rutte used humor during his remarks, joking about the Kremlin's reaction to his appointment. He also said he believed that there is no imminent nuclear threat from Russia, despite the country’s "reckless and irresponsible" bombast. Rutte humorously referenced his extensive experience attending E.U. Council meetings. His intimate knowledge of E.U. institutions contrasts with his predecessor Stoltenberg, who hails from Norway, a non-E.U. member. Rutte expressed optimism about cooperating with the bloc on defense issues, though he emphasized avoiding a “duplication” of NATO's work on defense policy. He also noted the importance of maintaining neutrality in domestic politics, especially regarding the U.S., praising both Trump and Kamala Harris for their contributions to defense and American values. PoliticoEU BBC 

Russian diplomat says nation is prepared for “long-term confrontation” with U.S. Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the U.S., according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who emphasized the ongoing crisis in relations due to the Ukraine war. Ryabkov acknowledged the deep-rooted anti-Russian sentiment in the U.S. and stressed that Moscow is fully prepared for a long-term conflict. He also mentioned that the Kremlin has been issuing warnings to Washington not to underestimate Russia's resolve. Just last week, President Vladimir Putin reiterated that his country could use nuclear weapons if attacked with conventional missiles, viewing any such attack supported by a nuclear power as a joint assault. Reuters 

The Nord Stream blasts are a puzzle, even after two years, worsening Europe’s divide. The investigation into the 2022 explosions that destroyed Russia's Nord Stream pipelines, which transported gas from Russia to Germany beneath the Baltic Sea, remains both unresolved and politically charged. Initially suspected to be sabotage by the Kremlin, speculation has since expanded, with some accusing the U.S., the U.K., or Ukraine. The probe into the explosions, which occurred in international waters, has naturally involved multiple countries due to the pipeline's location. Former German intelligence officials suggested Moscow may have sabotaged its own pipeline to raise gas prices, while Russia pointed fingers at the West. Conspiracy theories also emerged, with one journalist alleging U.S. involvement without evidence. In 2023, media outlets began implicating Ukraine, and this year sources began accusing the Ukrainian military. Despite arrest warrants and claims against it, Kyiv continues to dismiss the allegations. Politicians and commentators across Europe and the U.S. have used the incident to further their political agendas, with some citing it as a reason to reduce support for Ukraine. The investigation has also fueled wider criticism of Germany’s previous energy dependency on Russia, with countries like Poland and Czechia arguing that Berlin’s policies were misguided and detrimental to European energy security. This has sparked political tension within the E.U., especially as central and eastern European nations have become more prominent in the bloc's defense against Russia. Kyiv Independent 

Germany’s Scholz planning phone call with Putin. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reportedly considering his first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in nearly two years, according to sources cited by Die Zeit. The call, which has not yet been officially requested, is being contemplated ahead of the November G20 summit in Brazil. The specific topics for discussion have not been revealed. The two leaders last spoke in December 2022, when Scholz urged Putin to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine and seek a diplomatic solution to end the war. The potential phone conversation comes as Kyiv faces increasing pressure from the West to negotiate with Moscow, while its military struggles against Russia's advances in eastern Ukraine. Moscow Times Die Zeit  

Woman who allegedly gave airport details to suspected Chinese spy arrested in Germany. German authorities on Monday arrested a Chinese woman, identified as Yaqi X., in Leipzig for allegedly providing information about a key air freight hub to a suspected Chinese spy. Yaqi X. is accused of working for Chinese intelligence, passing along details about flights, military cargo, and passengers at Leipzig/Halle Airport, a major cargo hub. Between August 2023 and February 2024, she allegedly shared this information with Jian Guo, a German national previously arrested for spying for Beijing. Prosecutors claim Guo, who worked as an aide to a far-right European Parliament lawmaker, passed information to Chinese intelligence, including sensitive details on military equipment and defense company personnel. He also allegedly spied on Chinese dissidents in Germany. Yaqi X.'s apartment and workplace were searched, and she remains in custody. Associated Press BBC Politico

Danish police launch probe into two explosions near Israeli embassy in Copenhagen. Police in Denmark initiated an investigation on Wednesday into two blasts which occurred close to Israel’s Copenhagen embassy. A police spokesperson reported that there were no injuries. It is too soon to tell how large the explosions were. The scene was sealed off, and photos released by a Danish tabloid showed armed military personnel guarding the embassy. Another tabloid said investigators in coverall suits examined the area for evidence. Israeli’s embassy was not immediately available for a comment. Reuters Times of Israel

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange says he was forced to plead ‘guilty to journalism’ to secure freedom. In his first public appearance since being released from prison in June, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange addressed the legal affairs and human rights committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. The Australian journalist said he is not “free today because the system worked,” but because he pleaded “guilty to journalism," referring to his role in obtaining and publishing U.S. military secrets. Assange said he had to choose “freedom over unrealisable justice,” and warned that the rights of reporters and publishers in Europe are under attack. Assange had spent five years in a British prison following a plea deal with American prosecutors under the Espionage Act. Prior to that, he lived in self-imposed exile in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for seven years, seeking asylum due to fears of political persecution. His activities exposed U.S. military wrongdoing in Iraq and Afghanistan, such as the 2007 killing of 11 unarmed civilians, including two Reuters employees, in Baghdad. Assange’s actions were praised by press freedom advocates, but critics argue he jeopardized national security and lives. He has been described as a political prisoner by the Council of Europe, which criticized his harsh treatment during imprisonment. Associated Press CNN The Guardian 

MIDDLE EAST

Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch drone boat that hits ship in Red Sea as missile strikes another. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched two attacks Tuesday in the Red Sea, one involving a drone boat that hit the Panama-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon, causing damage to its ballast tank. The second attack involved a missile strike on the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Courage. These assaults are the latest in a series of Houthi strikes on commercial vessels, which the group claims are part of their escalating military operations against Israel. The Red Sea has become a conflict zone, with Houthis targeting ships since the war in Gaza began, often hitting vessels unrelated to the conflict. Associated Press 

Gunmen kill 6 people, including a local chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, in Iran towns. Unidentified gunmen killed six people in two separate attacks in Iran's Sistan and Baluchistan province on Tuesday. In the first attack, the local chief of the Revolutionary Guard, a town council head, and two Guard volunteers were killed after attending a school ceremony in Nikshahar. In the second attack, two police officers were killed in Khash. No group has claimed responsibility. The province, known for clashes between militant groups, drug smugglers, and security forces, has long experienced tension between its Sunni population and Iran's Shiite theocracy. Similar attacks occurred in September, claimed by Jaish al-Adl. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Japan PM Ishiba expressed desire to strengthen US alliance in first call with Biden. Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pledged to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance in his first call with President Joe Biden, emphasizing military cooperation with like-minded partners. Ishiba aims to create a more equal security arrangement, including joint management of U.S. bases, though he did not raise the issue with Biden during the call. His new cabinet, with a focus on defense, distances itself from past scandals and factions. Ishiba plans to dissolve the lower house and call snap elections, seeking public support for his administration amid growing political and economic challenges. Reuters Associated Press 

Cambodia says it would welcome US Navy at port expanded with China's help. Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol stated that the U.S. Navy would be welcome to visit the Ream Naval Base once its expansion is completed, despite concerns from Washington that it could become a Chinese outpost. Chanthol clarified that the base, upgraded with Chinese assistance, is for Cambodia's national defense and open to any military for humanitarian, disaster recovery, or joint exercises. He also noted the port’s shallow waters, advising the U.S. Navy to bring smaller ships. Tensions between the U.S. and Cambodia have risen over China's growing influence and Cambodia's political actions. Reuters

Myanmar civil war fuels surge in cross-border drug trade, Thailand official says. Thailand has experienced a rise in drug trafficking from Myanmar due to the ongoing civil war, with methamphetamine and heroin seizures surging in the northern provinces. The conflict has fueled the production of synthetic drugs, with militias and rebel groups using drug trade profits to fund their armed resistance. Meth prices in Thailand have dropped, indicating an oversupply despite large seizures. Authorities report a 172% increase in meth seizures this year, and crystal meth and heroin trafficking have also risen sharply since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup. Reuters

AFRICA

Amid opposition crackdown, a Tunisia presidential candidate is handed a 12 year prison sentence. Tunisian presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel was sentenced to 12 years in prison on charges of document falsification, just days before the October 6 election. Zammel, leader of the opposition Azimoun party, described the charges as politically motivated by President Kais Saied's government. This is Zammel's third prison sentence in two weeks, amid growing accusations that Saied is using the judiciary to suppress opposition. Saied’s critics, who have called for mass protests, argue that his actions, including barring other opposition candidates, signal increasing authoritarianism in Tunisia ahead of the election. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

West connects high-ranking Russian intelligence officer to Evil Corp cybercrime group.Western authorities have sanctioned Eduard Benderskiy, a former prominent Russian intelligence officer, for his role in supporting the Evil Corp cybercrime group, an organization that has been involved in a series of major cyber attacks and theft over the last decade. Benderskiy, an ex-KGB member, has been described as a key protector of Evil Corp, using his influence to shield the group after sanctions and indictments were issued against its members in 2019. The cybercrime organization, led by Maksim Yakubets, has stolen hundreds of millions of dollars globally. Yakubets is also accused of assisting Russian intelligence, particularly the FSB, by using access to victims’ computers for espionage. Benderskiy, Yakubets’ father-in-law, has reportedly facilitated Evil Corp’s operations and protected its members due to his connections within the Russian state. Additionally, Aleksandr Ryzhenkov, a key member of Evil Corp and a LockBit ransomware affiliate, was named for the first time and indicted for cybercrimes in the U.S. The U.S., U.K., and Australia have sanctioned several Evil Corp members, highlighting a coordinated international effort to combat cybercrime tied to Russian intelligence. Benderskiy has also been associated with high-profile assassinations. Despite no formal role in Russian security services today, he remains influential and is still connected to the Kremlin. The Record The Record

CISA reports remediation of thousands of bugs in year 2 of vulnerability disclosure program.  Last year the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) identified and remediated thousands of vulnerabilities through its Vulnerability Disclosure Policy (VDP) Platform, according to a new report. Established in 2021, the VDP Platform helps federal civilian agencies manage bug discoveries from researchers and resolve security issues. In 2023, CISA triaged over 7,000 vulnerability submissions across 51 federal agencies, with 11 new agencies joining the platform. Of the 7,058 submissions, 1,094 were valid disclosures, and 872 vulnerabilities were remediated, including 250 critical ones. The platform has helped agencies save both time and money, with an average of $4.45 million saved in potential remediation costs per agency. VDP has also improved the speed of validating vulnerabilities and provided CISA with greater insights into vulnerability trends and threats across federal agencies. The platform enhances cybersecurity efforts, offering extra protection for agencies that manage sensitive data and public services. The Record

Dollar steady as Middle East conflicts spread.As of Wednesday, the U.S. dollar maintained its largest gains in a week following Iran's missile attack on Israel, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns of an escalating Middle East conflict. The euro remained steady against the dollar at $1.1069 after a significant 0.6% drop on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index held steady at 101.25 after rising 0.5% the day before. Market reactions to the conflict focused primarily on oil prices, although Brent crude remained at $75 a barrel, lower than summer levels. The Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.1%, while the British pound was stable at $1.3292 after a previous drop. The euro's decline was also influenced by speculation that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates in October, following lower-than-expected eurozone inflation data. The dollar's strength was supported by stronger U.S. job openings data. In Japan, the yen weakened by 0.4% after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not reiterate the central bank's commitment to raising rates. Attention now shifts to American payroll data and the ongoing dockworker strike on the East and Gulf Coasts, which has disrupted 50% of the country's ocean shipping. A vice-presidential debate between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz saw a muted market response. Reuters Associated Press

FAA demands probe into anomaly on SpaceX's Crew-9 astronaut launch. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is mandating an investigation into an issue that occurred during the launch of SpaceX's Crew-9 mission on September 28. While the mission successfully sent NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov to the International Space Station, the Falcon 9 rocket's upper stage experienced an "off-nominal deorbit burn," leading it to land in the ocean outside its designated area. SpaceX has paused launches to investigate the issue, with FAA oversight. This anomaly marks the third Falcon 9 issue in less than three months. Space.com 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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