Report for Wednesday, Oct 9, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

October 9, 2024

Israel’s Netanyahu warns Lebanon of ‘destruction and suffering’ like Gaza

Woodward book: US scrambled to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Mexico mayors seek protection after one is beheaded days after taking office

UK blames Russia and Iran for a ‘staggering’ surge in deadly plots

US says committed to Asia as Blinken steps in for Biden at ASEAN summit

‘GoldenJackal’ group using new methods to attack government entities

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

CIA Director: ‘Very Real Danger’ of Wider Mideast WarThe Cipher Brief

WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Hezbollah targets Israeli troops on the Lebanese border, sirens in Beirut. Hezbollah targeted Israeli troops near Lebanon's Labbouneh village with rockets and artillery on Wednesday, escalating cross-border hostilities. This follows Israeli airstrikes, including in Beirut’s Hezbollah stronghold, after Israel killed key Hezbollah figures. Israel mobilized troops, and Hezbollah claimed to have pushed back Israeli forces. The conflict, ongoing for a year alongside the Gaza war, has led to over 2,100 deaths in Lebanon. Concerns are rising that this escalation could widen the Middle East conflict, potentially involving Iran, while U.S. President Joe Biden is set to discuss the situation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Reuters Washington Post 

Netanyahu warns Lebanon of 'destruction like Gaza.’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon Tuesday to expel Hezbollah to avoid “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza." He issued the warning as Israel expanded its invasion of southern Lebanon, deploying thousands more troops. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets at Haifa, injuring 12 people, while Lebanese officials reported 36 deaths from Israeli airstrikes in the past 24 hours. Hezbollah's leadership remained defiant. BBC Al Jazeera CNN  

US Frustrated by Israel’s Reluctance to Share Iran Retaliation Plans. The Biden administration is frustrated by Israel's reluctance to share its plans for retaliating against Iran. Despite U.S. efforts to discourage attacks on Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, Israel has withheld details, even postponing a key defense meeting. This lack of coordination concerns the U.S., which fears escalating conflict. Israel has previously carried out surprise strikes, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination, without notifying Washington. While U.S. officials hope for more transparency, Israel’s response to Iran’s recent missile attacks remains uncertain and could complicate U.S. involvement in the region. Wall Street Journal

Israel says it has killed slain Hezbollah leader's successors.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes killed two successors to Hezbollah's slain leader, Hassan Nasrallah. He emphasized the degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities as Israel expanded its ground offensive in southern Lebanon, deploying a fourth army division. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem supported truce efforts, signaling a potential ceasefire. Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah installations, and 50 fighters were reportedly killed. Rocket fire between Hezbollah and Israel continued, with over 3,000 rockets launched into Israel since the conflict escalated in early October. Reuters 

Israeli strikes kill at least 12 Palestinians in Gaza, WAFA says. Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed at least 12 Palestinians in Gaza, according to WAFA, the Palestinian Authority’s news agency. Nine members of the same family died in Shejaia, northern Gaza, while three others, including a child, were killed in Nuseirat refugee camp. The strikes are part of Israel's broader offensive following Hamas-led attacks a year ago, which killed over 1,200 Israelis. The ongoing conflict has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians, displaced millions, and created a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Reuters 

Biden expected to speak to Netanyahu on Wednesday, with Iran in focus. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday to discuss Israel's response to Iran’s recent missile attack and broader regional conflicts. Netanyahu has vowed Iran will "pay" for the strike, and Washington hopes to weigh in on Israel’s potential actions. This would be their first call since August, with discussions likely to focus on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran’s role. Biden has expressed reluctance regarding Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites while seeking alternatives to escalating the conflict. Reuters 

As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe. Israel's options for retaliating against Iran range from symbolic military strikes to severe attacks on Iran’s vital oil infrastructure or its fortified nuclear facilities. Striking military targets could send a strong deterrent message without escalation. Some leaders advocate targeting Iran’s oil industry, which would economically cripple Iran but invite retaliation. Others push for striking Iran’s nuclear program, seeing an opportunity for a decisive blow. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warns against over-escalation, urging a more measured approach. Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

US scrambled to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Woodward book says.  Bob Woodward's new book, War, reveals U.S. intelligence suggesting that President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid battlefield losses in Ukraine. The intelligence showed a 50% chance of tactical nukes being deployed if Ukrainian forces surrounded 30,000 Russian troops in Kherson in late 2022. Alarmed, President Joe Biden ordered National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to warn Russia, emphasizing catastrophic consequences. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also directly confronted Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, warning against nuclear use. Additionally, Biden urged China’s President Xi Jinping to intervene. Woodward also highlights Biden’s criticism of Obama's weak response to Russia’s 2014 actions in Crimea. “They f——- up in 2014,” Woodward wrote that Biden said to a close friend in December, blaming the lack of action for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. “Barack never took Putin seriously.” Biden was angry while speaking to the friend and said they “never should have let Putin just walk in there” in 2014 and that the U.S. “did nothing.” Associated Press  Newsweek

UK sanctions Russian troops over chemical weapons use in Ukraine. The UK imposed sanctions Tuesday on Russian soldiers for using chemical weapons in Ukraine, targeting Russia’s Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense troops and their commander along with two Russian defense ministry laboratories. The sanctions include an assets freeze and a travel ban. The U.S. has accused Russia of using hazardous chemicals like tear gas and chloropicrin to gain battlefield advantages. Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned Russia’s actions as a violation of international law and the Chemical Weapons Convention. BBC

Ramstein meeting on Ukraine up in air after Biden cancels trip to Germany. Following President Joe Biden’s cancellation Tuesday of his trip to Germany, the future of the planned Ramstein meeting of Ukraine's arms donors remains uncertain. Biden had intended to participate in the group's first-ever leaders' level gathering, but the event's timing is now up in the air. Despite the cancellation, Biden expressed hope to reschedule his visit to Germany and the associated conferences before the end of his term, reaffirming his commitment to supporting Ukraine. Discussions with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are ongoing. Reuters

Ukraine’s Allies See Kyiv Getting More Flexible Over War Endgame. Ukraine’s allies are sensing that President Volodymyr Zelensky may become more flexible in seeking an end to the war as pressure builds for a resolution. While Zelensky publicly maintains core demands like complete Russian withdrawal and NATO membership, the prolonged war and waning Western support are prompting talks behind closed doors about potential endgame scenarios. Meanwhile, U.S. and European allies are pressing for a more concrete roadmap from Kyiv, considering the challenges of strained budgets and the uncertainty of future American support post-election. Bloomberg

US military compiles list of American weapons systems that could help Ukraine in the war. The U.S. military has identified key weapons systems that could aid Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a report by General Chris Cavoli. These include the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (an air-launched cruise missile) and the Link 16 secure communications system used by NATO. While Ukraine has repeatedly requested these systems, U.S. officials have expressed concerns about sensitive technology falling into Russian hands and Ukraine’s ability to utilize them without air superiority. Despite o discussions, the Biden administration remains cautious about providing these systems, especially as U.S. elections approach. CNN   

The Russian Military Is 'Bleeding Out' in the Ukraine War. September 2024 marked one of the deadliest months for Russian forces in Ukraine, with an average of 1,271 casualties per day, according to British Military Intelligence. Since the war's onset, Russia has suffered over 648,000 casualties. The intensification of combat in Kharkiv and Kursk has contributed to the rise in casualties, with Russian forces relying on mass assaults. Despite these heavy losses, the conflict continues, making it the deadliest state-on-state war in Europe since World War II. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are enduring significant casualties. The National Interest

Why Russia Is in More Trouble Than It Looks. In an interview, Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that while Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine, its position is far from dominant. Despite Russia’s military advantage, Kofman highlights constraints, including high equipment losses and recruitment struggles. Russia’s reliance on outdated Soviet-era stocks and an inability to sustain its offensive pace suggest its battlefield advantage will diminish. Economic challenges and strained resources further weaken Russia’s position. Kofman concludes that although Russia has short-term gains, its ability to maintain them is doubtful, increasing the likelihood of future negotiations. New York Magazine

ANALYSIS–Moscow’s Hidden Plans For Exploiting A Ceasefire With Ukraine. Moscow is reportedly preparing to exploit any ceasefire deal in Ukraine. Russia's goal is to retain control over occupied territories while Ukraine seeks NATO membership. However, NATO accession could be delayed due to the ongoing conflict, giving Russia time to obstruct the process. Historical examples from Georgia and Armenia highlight how Russia manipulates ceasefires to consolidate power. Analysts fear Moscow’s long-term strategy includes fomenting unrest within Ukraine, destabilizing the country, and pushing anti-Western sentiment, potentially leading to further conflict and undermining Ukraine’s future sovereignty. Any ceasefire might embolden Russia to escalate its influence over Ukraine. Forbes

Zelensky wants missiles and faster results on the battlefield. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's need for advanced missiles and quicker battlefield results in his nightly address on Tuesday. He highlighted a meeting with top commanders focused on developing domestic weapons, particularly drones, electronic warfare, and missile systems. Zelenskiy stressed the importance of rapid achievements on the frontlines and within Russian territory. Ukraine continues to request long-range missiles from Western allies while also prioritizing the expansion of its domestic arms industry, with plans to announce new missile developments, including ballistic missiles, in the coming months. Reuters

Russian weapons depot storing North Korean weapons set ablaze after drone attack, Ukraine's military reports. A Ukrainian drone strike set ablaze a Russian weapons depot in Bryansk Oblast, reportedly storing North Korean missiles and artillery shells, Ukrainian authorities said Wednesday. The depot, part of Russia’s Main Missile and Artillery Directorate, was located near Karachev and suffered multiple explosions following the attack. The fire follows weeks after Ukraine destroyed another Russian ammunition stockpile. North Korea has been supplying Russia with munitions since mid-2022. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine launches tens of drones on Russia's western regions, Moscow says. Russia's defense ministry reported Wednesday destroying 47 Ukrainian drones targeting its western regions, including Bryansk, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Krasnodar, and the Sea of Azov. No casualties were reported. A fire caused by debris in Rostov was quickly extinguished, while Bryansk officials stated that emergency services were managing the aftermath of falling debris. Reuters

After Key Town Falls in Ukraine’s East, Russian Forces Push Into Another. After capturing Vuhledar, Russian forces are advancing through eastern Ukraine, including entering Toretsk, a strategic hilltop city. Heavy fighting continues as Russia pushes to capture key towns in the Donetsk region, which it partly controls. Ukrainian forces are battling at the entrances to Toretsk, while Russian troops employ encirclement tactics, attempting to flank cities like Pokrovsk and Selydove. The fall of Toretsk would complicate Ukraine’s logistics and defense. Russia has also resumed assaults in southern Ukraine, likely aiming to stretch Ukrainian defenses. Despite these advances, Russia remains far from fully capturing the Donetsk region. New York Times

Russia says it captures two villages in Ukraine's east. Russia's Defense Ministry said Tuesday it had captured two villages, Zolota Nyva and Zoryane Pershe, in eastern Ukraine as part of its efforts to secure the Donbas region. Both settlements are near Kurakhove, a focal point of heavy fighting. Ukraine's military did not confirm the loss but acknowledged intense battles in the area. Meanwhile, Russian forces have entered the city of Toretsk, northeast of Kurakhove, reportedly controlling key residential areas while encountering Ukrainian resistance in northeastern districts. Reuters

Russian forces launch relentless attacks on Ukrainian positions. Russian forces launched relentless attacks on Ukrainian positions, with 172 combat clashes reported over the past day, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Russian troops, using their advantage in manpower and equipment, attacked across multiple fronts, including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, and Toretsk, while Ukrainian defenders held their ground. Russia also launched missile strikes, airstrikes, and kamikaze drones, totaling over 3,400 attacks. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled numerous assaults and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy, while also targeting Russian military personnel and equipment. The operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast continues, with Russian aircraft reportedly striking their own territory. Ukrainska Pravda

At least two killed and 30 injured in Russian attacks on Kharkiv. Russian airstrikes targeted Kharkiv, killing two civilians and injuring over 30, including a teenager, on Tuesday. The attacks involved guided bombs hitting the city, which lies about 30 kilometers from the Russian border. Earlier, another strike injured 28 people, with damage to a civilian production facility. Al Jazeera

Russia's strike on Sumy Oblast kills 2. Russian forces attacked the Esman community in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast with guided bombs, killing two civilians on Tuesday. Throughout the day, Russian strikes targeted eight border communities, using grenade launchers, drones, and bombs. Sumy Oblast has faced intensified attacks since Ukraine's cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. Kyiv Independent

Russia attacks Ukraine overnight, injuring 5 in Odesa. Overnight into early Wednesday, Russian forces launched widespread attacks across Ukraine, targeting multiple regions with missiles and drones. Ukrainian air defense intercepted 21 out of 22 Russian drones. In Odesa, five people were injured, with damage to a nine-story building and a medical facility. Poltava Oblast suffered strikes from three ballistic missiles, damaging an industrial site. In Kherson, a geriatric center was hit, injuring two medical workers. These regular attacks, labeled war crimes by Ukraine and international organizations, have resulted in over 11,743 civilian deaths, including 613 children, since February 2022, according to the United Nations. Euromaidan Press

Hungary’s Orban says Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield. At a news conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Donald Trump would "not wait until the inauguration" to "manage a peace" in Ukraine if he wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Orban, a long-time Trump ally, expressed support for Trump’s return, saying, "We will open several bottles of champagne if Trump is back." Orban has blocked aid to the country while maintaining close ties with Russia. He is scheduled to address the European Parliament on Wednesday. Orban said that Ukraine could not win the war against Russia on the battlefield and called for dialogue and a ceasefire to save lives. He emphasized the need for potential mediation by a third party. Reuters  Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian court sentences hackers who carried out over 5,000 cyberattacks for Russia. A Ukrainian court sentenced two Russian Federal Security Service-backed hackers in absentia to 15 years for conducting over 5,000 cyberattacks on Ukrainian institutions and infrastructure. The hackers, former Security Service of Ukraine employees in Crimea, targeted sensitive systems in ministries like Foreign Affairs and Economic Development. They were charged with treason and cybercrimes. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine may face 'toughest' winter since invasion began, Rutte says. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Wednesday that Ukraine could face its most difficult winter since Russia's full-scale invasion due to expected attacks on energy infrastructure. With previous strikes damaging thermal and hydroelectric plants, Ukraine may endure severe electricity shortages. Rutte emphasized that NATO must increase military support to help Ukraine. Kyiv Independent      

Ukraine arrivals from March would not be offered accommodation under a new plan. Starting next March, new Ukrainian arrivals in Ireland may no longer be offered accommodation under a proposed plan by senior government officials. The government is exploring measures to reduce the number of Ukrainians in publicly funded housing, including a possible "maximum stay" rule targeting those who have been in accommodation the longest. The number of Ukrainians in accommodation supported by the Department of Integration has fallen in recent months to 35,833, compared with 58,830 a year ago. Ukrainians automatically benefit from a temporary protection directive that allows them to live and work in the European Union. This directive is due to end in March 2026.  The government has taken various steps to align it with other countries, including cutting welfare payments and limiting accommodation to 90 days for new arrivals. Irish Times

We can't solve war in Ukraine without solving Belarus, Tsikhanouskaya says. In an interview, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya emphasized the interconnectedness of Belarus and Ukraine’s struggles, asserting that neither can achieve freedom without addressing the other. She advocates dismantling Alexander Lukashenko's regime as key to weakening Russian influence in Belarus, which would help Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya also highlighted the Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainians. She called for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and Belarus, linking Belarus’ future democracy to the resolution of the war.Kyiv Independent

Opinion: The West’s support for Ukraine is fading – and that will empower Putin for his next war. Paul Taylor argues that the US and Europe are failing to provide Ukraine with decisive military aid, risking a critical mistake, especially if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election. Taylor warns that Western support is waning, with political distractions in Europe and fears of Russian escalation. While Ukraine urgently needs deeper military support, including long-range strike capabilities, leaders remain cautious. Taylor emphasizes that failure to act decisively now could lead to a worse strategic situation next year, emboldening Russia. The Guardian

AMERICAS

U.S. arrests Afghan man in Oklahoma City for alleged election day attack plot. The FBI has arrested Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, a 27-year-old Afghan citizen in Oklahoma City, for scheming to carry out a suicide attack on Election Day. Tawhedi, who intended to cause mass casualties on behalf of ISIS, had allegedly liquidated family assets to resettle his relatives and recruited his nephew as a co-conspirator. Investigators found that he planned to use two AK-47s and searched for camera access in Washington, D.C. He had communicated with an ISIS member about the attack, vowing obedience and writing, “with the help of God, we will get ready for the election day.” Tawhedi purchased assault rifles and ammunition from an undercover FBI informant and was arrested at an isolated ranch where he was collecting the weapons. He was charged with conspiring to support ISIS and obtaining firearms for terrorism, which carry significant prison sentences. His devices contained pro-ISIS propaganda, and he admitted his plans to FBI agents, claiming his family was unaware. The bureau continues to investigate, and may bring additional charges. New York Times BBC Reuters Washington Post 

Hi-tech trade limits ‘not negotiable,’ U.S. informs China. Tensions are simmering between the U.S. and China over President Joe Biden’s hi-tech trade restrictions, which are aimed at safeguarding national security. In a call between U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, Raimondo emphasized that these rules, which are focused on hindering technology from aiding the Chinese military, are "not negotiable." She also expressed concerns about Beijing’s lack of regulatory transparency, structural overcapacity, and non-market practices. In an effort to limit technology flow to China, the Biden administration has imposed restrictions, including a ban on Chinese and Russian hardware and software for connected vehicles. Beijing has voiced strong objections to these measures, particularly regarding U.S. semiconductor policies and restrictions on connected cars. Wang urged Washington to clarify national security boundaries in trade, lift sanctions on Chinese companies, and improve the business environment. South China Morning Post  

Human rights report warns Haitian gangs recruiting more child soldiers. Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Wednesday reported that armed gangs in Haiti are increasingly recruiting children, who are driven by extreme hunger and poverty. Boys are being used as informants, taught to use weapons, and sent to fight against the police, while girls are being sexually abused, forced into domestic labor, and discarded after becoming pregnant. Some children join gangs out of desperation, as the gangs often provide food, shelter, and money. According to the U.N, around a third of gang members are children. Some boys have been used for murders or to attack institutions, and girls have been killed in broad daylight for resisting rape. These criminal groups now control areas housing 2.7 million people, including 500,000 children. Haitian gangs use social media to attract recruits, with some leaders, such as the Village de Dieu gang chief, promoting their image through music videos. HRW called on the Haitian government and international actors to boost security, provide basic needs like food and education for children, and offer rehabilitation for those recruited by gangs. Reuters

Dominican Republic deports almost 11,000 Haitians in a week. The Dominican Republic has deported or repatriated nearly 11,000 Haitians in the past week, following its promise to deport up to 10,000 Haitians weekly due to an "excess" of immigrants. This move, which has been widely condemned, has further strained relations between the two countries on the island of Hispaniola. Haitian officials denounced the deportations, calling them discriminatory and harmful, especially given Haiti's ongoing crises of gang violence and poverty. The deportations have also resulted in an increase in abandoned children and allegations of extortion by Dominican soldiers. Associated Press 

Mexican mayors request protection after another went alone to meeting and was beheaded. Four mayors in Mexico have requested federal protection following the beheading of Mayor Alejandro Arcos in Guerrero over the weekend, who was killed just days after he took office. The mayors seeking protection are from the violence-plagued states of Guerrero and Guanajuato, where cartel-related bloodshed is rampant. In Guanajuato, a total of four mayoral candidates were killed ahead of the June elections. Arcos’ murder occurred on Sunday after he left a private meeting, and although he had mentioned needing more protection, no formal request had been submitted. Drug cartels in Mexico frequently target mayors for extortion, government contracts, and control of local police forces. Guerrero's capital, Chilpancingo, is currently under the power of two warring drug gangs, the Ardillos and the Tlacos. Associated Press Reuters The Guardian Al Jazeera 

E.U. extends sanctions against 21 Nicaraguans. The European Union has extended sanctions for another year against 21 Nicaraguan officials, including Vice President Rosario Murillo and three of her children, due to ongoing human rights concerns. The sanctions ban these officials from traveling through E.U. countries and freeze any assets they hold in European banks. Three Nicaraguan entities, including the national police, have also been sanctioned, preventing E.U. citizens and companies from financing them. The bloc first imposed sanctions on the administration in 2019, following a crackdown on anti-government protests in 2018 that left over 300 people dead. The union is urging the Nicaraguan government to release political prisoners and restore freedoms, as around 70 political prisoners are still being held. Reuters 

EUROPE

Russia, Iran responsible for ‘staggering’ surge in deadly plots in U.K., says MI5 spy chief. MI5 chief General Ken McCallum on Tuesday warned of a significant rise in assassination attempts, sabotage, and other crimes on British soil by Russia and Iran. He revealed that MI5 has disrupted 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots since January 2022, and there is concern that these threats could escalate if conflicts in the Middle East intensify. Iran’s targets so far have been Iranians abroad, but MI5 fears broader attacks could follow. McCallum also highlighted mounting threats from Russia, which is allegedly using criminals to cause chaos in the U.K., and warned about the Kremlin’s military intelligence agency’s involvement in acts like arson and sabotage. In the past year, the number of state-threat investigations in the U.K. has risen by 48%, with Iran, Russia, and China being the primary perpetrators. McCallum stressed that Islamic extremist ideology remains a major source of terror in the U.K., with al Qaeda and ISIS seeing a resurgence. But he also noted a rise of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and young people being drawn into extremist ideologies. The intelligence agency continues to handle a complex range of threats from hostile states, militant groups, and radicalized individuals, and faces both terror plots and state-backed aggression. Associated Press CNN BBC Al Jazeera  

E.U. establishes system to sanction individuals engaging in sabotage for Russia. The European Union has launched a new system to impose sanctions on individuals, agencies, or organizations involved in cyberattacks, information manipulation, or sabotage on behalf of Russia, which is aiming to undermine E.U. support for Ukraine. This action follows warnings from NATO about the increase in Moscow’s hostile activities, including satellite disruptions, airspace violations, and physical attacks, targeting several European countries. The E.U.'s framework enables sanctions like asset freezes and travel bans for those responsible for hybrid threats, such as the subverting of elections, democratic institutions, critical infrastructure, or the use of migrant flows for destabilization. While no sanctions have been imposed yet, bloc members are committed to addressing these threats and maintaining strong support for Kyiv. The sanctions would target anyone benefiting from or supporting Russia's destabilizing actions globally. Associated Press 

Most of Europe is fine without Russian gas. As the European Union reduces reliance on Russian gas, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary face costly challenges with the expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline deal at year’s end. While most EU countries have shifted to alternatives like liquefied natural gas (LNG), these three remain heavily dependent on Russian energy due to cost advantages. If the Ukraine pipeline transiting Russian gas closes, they will need new supply routes, raising prices. Although alternatives exist, including deals with Turkey and Serbia, the transition will incur s expenses, with ripple effects across Europe’s energy market. PoliticoEU

Belarus launches new criminal investigations against dozens of opposition activists. Belarusian authorities have launched new criminal investigations against 45 opposition activists, accusing them of plotting to seize power and forming extremist groups. These actions are part of President Alexander Lukashenko’s crackdown on dissent ahead of the 2025 presidential election, where he seeks a seventh term. The activists, many in exile, face asset confiscation and up to 12 years in prison if convicted. This follows Lukashenko’s harsh repression after the disputed 2020 election, which saw mass protests and over 65,000 people detained, with 1,300 political prisoners currently held, according to human rights group Viasna. Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran cautions Gulf states not to allow use of airspace against Tehran. Iran has warned Gulf Arab states that it would view any use of their airspace or military bases against Iran as "unacceptable" and would respond accordingly. This message was conveyed amid concerns over Israeli retaliation for a recent Iranian missile attack; Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is visiting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to discuss the issue. Tehran has stressed the importance of regional unity against Israel and warned Persian Gulf states not to assist Israel by allowing their airspace to be used for attacks on Iran. Gulf states have sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in any conflict with Israel. This warning follows discussions during an Asia conference in Qatar last week, in which Iran stressed that any hostile action by one Gulf country would be considered an action by the entire region. While the talks did not address oil production in case of an escalation, concerns about potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities have surfaced, which could disrupt global oil markets. Reuters

U.S.-Iran tensions surge as nuclear deal abandonment debate resurfaces. Recent flares of conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran have inflamed the intense debate over Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under President Trump in 2018, which critics say only encouraged Iranian hard-liners and accelerated the country’s nuclear program. This development has engendered fears in Israel, prompting some officials to call for military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Some argue that had the nuclear deal remained in place, Iran might have been more restrained in its regional activities. Despite Tehran’s support for proxy groups in the Middle East, critics of the exit believe the deal could have also fostered greater cooperation between the nation and the West. International monitors had found, after all, that Iran was complying with the terms of the agreement. However, others, especially conservatives, defend Trump’s decision and believe that the deal was flawed from the beginning, allowing Tehran to fund terrorism with billions in unfrozen assets. Iran’s new president has shown openness to reviving negotiations, but the long-term outcome remains uncertain. And the Biden administration faces mounting pressure to handle Iran’s nuclear advancements, but also to manage relations with countries like China that import Iranian oil.  New York Times

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, Russia carrying out joint anti-submarine drills in Pacific. China and Russia recently conducted a joint anti-submarine exercise in the Pacific Ocean as part of ongoing naval cooperation. The Russian Pacific Fleet participated with two anti-submarine destroyers and a Ka-27PL helicopter, while China deployed several warships, including the Type 055 destroyer Wuxi, as well as helicopters and support vessels. This exercise follows a larger one held last month, named Beibu/Interaction 2024, which included drills to repel attacks from air, sea, and underwater, and demonstrated the growing strategic cooperation between the two countries' militaries. These exercises have become more standardized and are now designed to simulate real combat situations, enhancing the two nations' capabilities to address security threats together. South China Morning Post 

China accuses Taiwan’s president of escalating tensions. The Chinese government on Tuesday alleged that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is escalating tensions with "sinister intentions." These comments came ahead of Lai’s upcoming keynote speech in Taipei, which is set for the island state’s national day and commemorates the 1911 revolution. In response to Lai's earlier remarks that Taipei has older political roots than Beijing, China's Taiwan Affairs Office condemned his stance, accusing him of promoting Taiwan independence and intensifying hostility. It is likely that Lai’s Thursday speech will provoke a Chinese military response. The U.S. Department of State said that Beijing’s use of the speech as “a pretext or excuse” for “coercive measures” erodes regional peace. Reuters Taipei Times 

Poll reveals most Taiwanese believe that China invasion is unlikely in coming five years. A recent poll by Taiwan's top military think tank reveals that while most Taiwanese view China as a serious threat, 61% believe it is unlikely that the nation will invade the island within the next five years. Despite Beijing's increased military activities around Taiwan, including both drills and propaganda drives, Taiwanese citizens remain calm. Many view China's territorial ambitions as significant but not immediately indicative of an attack. The survey, conducted by the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, also shows that over 67% of respondents would fight back if China attacked, though they are divided on whether Taiwan's military is capable of defending the island. Opinions are also split on whether the U.S. would intervene militarily, with 74% expecting indirect support but only 52% believing Washington would send its armed forces. Experts suggest Taipei should improve transparency about its cooperation with the White House to manage public expectations. The poll contrasts with American intelligence warnings of a potential invasion by 2027, highlighting a more measured perspective among the Taiwanese people. Reuters Barron's 

Pyongyang holds critical parliamentary session amid surging regional tensions, cuts road, rail links to the South. Though North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly held a session this week, state media KCNA did not mention any changes in its stance on unification with South Korea, despite expectations that references to the subject would be removed from the constitution. Tensions between the two Koreas have been rising in recent months, along with mounting speculation that North Korea might officially designate Seoul as a "primary foe" or redefine its borders; in January of this year, Kim Jong Un delivered a speech in which he declared unification with the South impossible and accused Seoul of aiming for regime collapse. No such changes were reported on Wednesday, though KCNA did say that the army has announced its intentions to sever road and rail connections with South Korea, and to erect frontline defense structures to address “confrontational hysteria” by South Korean and American forces. There has also been speculation about shifts to the maritime border between the Koreas, a long-disputed area that has seen deadly clashes, but no announcements were made. The Assembly session instead amended the constitution to alter the working and voting ages, passed new laws on industry and the economy, and appointed No Kwang Chol as the new defense minister. Kim Jong Un did not attend the session. Reuters Reuters Associated Press BBC Al Jazeera  

US Says Committed To Asia As Blinken Steps In For Biden At ASEAN Summit in Laos. The Association of Southeast Nations summit, taking place in Vientiane, Laos, starting on Wednesday, highlights critical regional issues such as Myanmar’s civil war and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. However, U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to skip the summit for the second consecutive year raises questions about America’s commitment to Southeast Asia amid rising tensions with China. While Secretary of State Antony Blinken is attending in Biden’s place, the president’s absence at such a crucial meeting signals a potential shift in U.S. focus or priorities. This comes as ASEAN navigates complex challenges requiring strong international engagement. Associated Press Reuters  South China Morning Post  Barron's 

AFRICA

Burkina Faso’s prime minister in Russia for military cooperation talks. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently met with Burkina Faso's Prime Minister Apollinaire J. Kyelem de Tambela in Moscow to discuss expanding military ties. This meeting is part of Moscow’s broader strategy to increase its influence on the African continent in competition with the West, particularly after the Ukraine war heightened tensions between the Kremlin and Washington. Burkina Faso, which has remained under military rule since 2022, has hosted Russian Wagner mercenaries, and in June of this year, Russia sent additional military aid and instructors to help Burkina Faso combat terrorism. The Russian defense ministry emphasized the positive trajectory of relations with Burkina Faso based on mutual respect and shared interests. Despite Russia’s relatively low investment in Africa, it remains a key arms supplier to the region. At the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit, Moscow signed military-technical agreements with 40 African countries, potentially boosting arms sales. Reuters Business Insider Africa

Burkina Faso’s junta suspends Voice of America broadcasts over coverage of militant violence. Burkina Faso’s military junta suspended Voice of America (VOA) broadcasts for three months, saying its coverage of militant attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali is undermining military morale. The suspension follows a similar move earlier this year when the VOA and BBC were briefly banned for reporting human rights abuses by Burkina Faso’s forces. The junta, in power since 2022, has increasingly targeted journalists and media organizations amid violence involving militants linked to al-Qaida and ISIS. Associated Press 

Mozambique votes in a tense election likely to see the ruling party win. Mozambique's election on Wednesday is poised to extend the ruling Frelimo party’s 49-year dominance. Daniel Chapo, the Frelimo candidate, is expected to succeed President Filipe Nyusi, facing challenges from charismatic independent Venancio Mondlane and former rebel leader Ossufo Momade. The election takes place amid economic hardship, poverty, corruption, and an Islamist insurgency, which has displaced thousands. Observers anticipate Frelimo's victory despite past accusations of election rigging. Chapo promises stability, while Mondlane addresses youth unemployment and poverty, drawing support from urban populations. Associated Press Reuters

Surge in cholera cases across Sudan worrying the U.N. Recent figures reveal that cholera cases in ravaged Sudan have surged by nearly 40% in less than two weeks, raising unease among U.N. health officials who have been warning about the disease for months. The country’s health ministry reported 21,288 cases and 626 deaths across 11 states, up from 15,577 cases and 506 deaths in late September. The outbreak is primarily in the eastern states, with the highest numbers in Kassala. UNICEF and the World Health Organization are working with Sudan’s health ministry on a vaccination campaign to combat the spread. Heavy rainfalls, floods, extreme hunger, and ongoing conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces exacerbate the cholera outbreak. Associated Press Middle East Monitor 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

State-sponsored ‘GoldenJackal’ group using new methods to attack government entities. Researchers from ESET, a Slovakia-based cybersecurity firm, have discovered previously undocumented tools used by the cyberespionage group GoldenJackal, a faction of state-backed hackers active since at least 2019. The group targets government and diplomatic entities in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia, including a South Asian embassy in Belarus and a European Union government organization. Although the group’s origin is unclear, researchers suspect the hackers are Russian speakers. GoldenJackal specializes in attacking air-gapped systems. Their attacks focus on stealing confidential information using custom tools such as GoldenDealer, GoldenHowl, and GoldenRobo to compromise systems via USB monitoring and file exfiltration. They also employ a modular approach, utilizing tools like GoldenUsbCopy, GoldenBlacklist, and GoldenMailer to manage and extract data. The group's ability to develop and deploy two toolsets for air-gapped systems over five years is notable due to the complexity involved in such attacks. However, how GoldenJackal initially breaches targeted systems remains unclear, though previous reports suggest they use trojanized software and malicious documents. The Record 

Breaking Up Is Hard to Do: Antitrust Officials Weigh Splitting Google, Others. U.S. antitrust officials are weighing the possibility of breaking up Google as they pursue remedies for its alleged monopolistic practices. A recent Justice Department filing highlights structural changes, including potentially splitting off Google’s Chrome browser and Android operating system, to restore competition in search. This comes amid antitrust efforts, with cases against Google, Meta, and Live Nation. Although breakups are rare and difficult to execute, U.S. officials are exploring this option as a last resort if other remedies, like capping exclusive agreements, prove insufficient. Courts would ultimately decide on such a drastic measure. Wall Street Journal Financial Times

Ukrainian pleads guilty in U.S. to running Raccoon Infostealer malware. Mark Sokolovsky, a 28-year-old Ukrainian national, on Monday pleaded guilty in a U.S. federal court to operating the Raccoon Infostealer malware. As part of the plea deal, he agreed to forfeit nearly $24,000 and pay at least $910,844 in restitution. Sokolovsky was accused of being a key administrator of the malware, which steals personal information like email addresses, bank details, and cryptocurrency data. Raccoon Infostealer was sold as malware-as-a-service for about $200 per month and used to commit financial crimes and sell stolen information on cybercrime forums. In March 2022, the FBI, along with Italian and Dutch authorities, dismantled the malware's infrastructure, but the operators relaunched it in April 2024 with enhanced features. Sokolovsky was arrested in the Netherlands and extradited to the U.S. in February of this year. The FBI has since recovered over 50 million pieces of stolen data, including bank account details, email addresses, and credit card numbers from millions of victims. The Record 

ADT reports data breach involving employee information via third-party hack. ADT, an American home security company, reported on Monday that a hacker managed to compromise  a third-party business partner's systems and used it to steal encrypted internal employee data. The breach did not affect customers' personal information or security systems. ADT is working with federal law enforcement and has shut down the unauthorized access. The incident caused some disruptions to ADT’s systems, and the company is investigating with the third party involved; this event follows a previous security breach two months ago, in which hackers stole ADT customer order data. The Record 

Turkey blocks access to instant messaging app Discord over child abuse concerns. Turkey has blocked access to the messaging platform Discord following an Ankara court decision, according to the country's Information Technologies and Communication Authority (BTK). The ban was enacted due to suspicions of crimes related to "child sexual abuse and obscenity." Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc underscored the government's commitment to protecting children from harmful content online. The decision follows public outrage over the murder of two women by a 19-year-old man, after some Discord users reportedly praised the killings. Discord was also recently blocked in Russia for violating its laws and failing to remove banned content. Reuters Bloomberg 

China shares plunge amid economic recovery disappointment, other markets see mild upswing. Chinese stocks plummeted on Wednesday, with Shanghai’s benchmark dropping 6.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling 1.5%, due to disappointment over lackluster economic stimulus plans from Beijing, especially following hopes for substantial fiscal policies following earlier announcements. The drop in Chinese markets contrasted with mostly flat or advancing markets elsewhere, with European stocks slightly rising and U.S. futures down slightly. The declines in China follow a rally that has fizzled as investors await further details on government spending, with more information expected from a Finance Ministry briefing. Despite the drop, Chinese markets are still up compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9%, buoyed by a retailer’s takeover bid, and global oil prices inched up due to tensions in the Middle East. U.S. Treasury yields also edged lower, while the U.S. dollar slightly strengthened against the yen. Associated Press 

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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