Report for Wednesday, November 6, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Netanyahu sacks defense minister, sparking protests

Zelensky Says He Hopes Trump Victory Will Bring ‘Just Peace in Ukraine Closer

U.S. official reports little disruption of election infrastructure linked to foreign interference

FBI links hoax bomb threats in swing states to Russian threat actors

Western officials say exploding parcels in Europe were part of scheme to target U.S. flights

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

On Election Day, Bomb Threats and Fake Videos Tied to Russia.  The Cipher Brief

Global Challenges for 47th President: Two Major Wars, and Avoiding Conflict with China.  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Netanyahu sacks defense minister, sparking protests.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired his defense minister Yoav Gallant Tuesday, over “significant gaps on handling the war.” Israelis spilled into the streets to demonstrate near the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem.  Gallant, a centrist and political rival, broke with Netanyahu over a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza, a military draft for ultra-Orthodox Israelis, and Gallant’s support for a commission of inquiry into security failures surrounding the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.   Gallant was in close contact with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Defense secretary Lloyd Austin and other senior U.S. officials. The White House said that Gallant “has been an important partner on all matters related to the defense of Israel.”  Netanyahu named Israel Katz, the foreign minister as the new defense minister.  Netanyahu said he offered hard-liner Gideon Saar the job of foreign minister.  The cabinet shake-up came amid a burgeoning scandal over leaks of classified documents suspected to come from Netanyahu's office. The Israeli news outlet Haaretz reported that Netanyahu is considering firing the heads of the Israeli Defense Force and Shin Bet security service. Netanyahu denied the reports.  New York Times CNN Reuters BBC The Guardian  Haaretz  

Israeli police probing ‘criminal incidents’ linked to Netanyahu’s office.  An Israeli police probe is focusing on unnamed “criminal incidents” reportedly linked to wartime meetings. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to confirm that the investigation, which has been in progress for some six months, concerned his office, releasing a statement blasting it as “an unprecedented hunting expedition against the Prime Minister’s Office in the midst of a war.” Earlier, a court allowed the publication of the fact that the police were probing “criminal incidents” related to the start of the war against Hamas in Gaza. Reports in Hebrew media indicated that the probe is linked to reported allegations earlier in the year that Netanyahu had been attempting to keep his conversations regarding the management of the war in Gaza untraceable. Times of Israel   

WHO reports more than 100 patients to be evacuated from Gaza. The World Health Organization (WHO) has arranged a rare medical evacuation for over 100 patients, including children, from the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict. Patients, suffering from trauma wounds and chronic diseases, will be transported through the Kerem Shalom crossing into Israel, then flown to the UAE, with some continuing on to Romania. This evacuation comes in the wake of only a few hundred patient transfers since May, after Israel’s military presence expanded southward. WHO has been requesting more sustained medical evacuations, as over 12,000 people await transfer. The Israeli military agency COGAT stated that it coordinates evacuations based on available resources in receiving countries. WHO also provided aid to struggling hospitals in northern Gaza, where shortages of fuel and medical supplies threaten their operation. Reuters VOA 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Says He Hopes Trump Victory Will Bring ‘Just Peace in Ukraine Closer.’  President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election, expressing optimism for continued bipartisan support for Ukraine. Posting on X, Zelensky emphasized his discussions with Trump in September about strengthening the Ukraine-U.S. partnership and achieving peace through strength. "I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer," Zelensky wrote on social media. "We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump's decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.” However, Trump's likely return to office raises concerns over potential shifts in U.S. policy, with fears he may negotiate with the Kremlin and pressure Ukraine toward concessions. Past tensions mark their relationship, notably Trump’s 2019 request for political investigations, leading to his first impeachment. Moscow Times Kyiv Independent

‘I’m going to stop the wars,’ Trump says in victory. Donald Trump declared his intent to "stop the wars" after claiming victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Emphasizing his track record of no new wars during his first term, Trump rejected accusations that he would start conflicts, promising instead to focus on bringing conflicts to a close. His remarks underscored his vision of a swift negotiation to end the war in Ukraine, a stance that could reduce U.S. support for Ukraine and potentially benefit Russia. Trump’s approach raises fears in Ukraine and elsewhere that he would pressure Kyiv to cede Ukrainian territory to Moscow. 

Reacting to Trump’s return to the White House, Ukrainians brace for uncertain U.S. support, but leaders signal resilience. Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s foreign relations committee, struck a cautious yet hopeful tone, suggesting that Trump’s pragmatic approach may not be “bad” for Ukraine if Kyiv can effectively demonstrate its strategic value. Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, voiced skepticism over Trump’s vow to end the war in 24 hours, acknowledging the challenges but stressing Ukraine’s readiness to adapt while resisting Russia’s war.  Kyiv Independent Politico EU

For Ukraine, Trump Victory Signals a Shift. To What, Is Unclear.  Donald Trump's presidential win leaves Ukrainians bracing for a likely pivot in U.S. policy amid Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. Trump’s promise to end the war in a day raises concerns that he may press Kyiv into a disadvantageous settlement, given his past praise of Vladimir Putin and criticisms of President Volodymyr Zelensky. The election has intensified worries among Ukrainian leaders, who fear diminished support and anticipate Europe may need to shoulder more of Ukraine’s defense. Notably, battlefield conditions have grown increasingly dire, with Ukraine facing troop shortages and escalating Russian attacks. Despite these challenges, diplomatic efforts continue, with Kyiv considering proposals it once dismissed. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s hopes for greater U.S. support in joining NATO and receiving powerful weaponry have been met with tepid responses. Lt. Pavlo Velychko captured the prevailing sentiment: “We should not hope for a miracle from across the ocean.” New York Times

Trump’s victory could mean the US withdraws support for Ukraine in war with Russia. Donald Trump has blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Joe Biden for the ongoing war, but not Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has argued it would not have started under his leadership. Trump has suggested that Ukraine’s resistance has prolonged the conflict, and he has pushed the notion that Biden’s support only deepens U.S. entanglement. Trump’s relationship with Zelensky remains strained, notably after Trump’s 2019 impeachment over his effort to withhold military aid to pressure Zelensky into investigating Biden’s family. Recently, Trump has claimed he could quickly broker a peace deal, often expressing frustration with Ukraine’s insistence on a “position of strength” in negotiations. Trump’s approach has emphasized achieving a “good deal” for Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky has cautiously responded, acknowledging that weakened U.S. support under Trump could embolden Russian territorial advances, pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable settlement. CNN

Russia testing the waters, suggests 'reset' with the U.S. after Trump’s election win. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, expressed optimism on Wednesday about resetting U.S.-Russia relations as Donald Trump clinched an election win. Dmitriev criticized the Biden administration and said Trump’s win reflects American frustration, offering new opportunities for diplomatic engagement between the nuclear powers. Although Trump has pledged to end the Ukraine war swiftly, he has not detailed his approach. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated openness to negotiations, provided that Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine are accepted—an unacceptable condition for Kyiv. While Kremlin officials claimed indifference toward the U.S. election outcome, state media showed a preference for the GOP nominee. The former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, suggested that Trump’s business mindset may lead him to limit U.S. support for Ukraine but questioned how much he could ultimately influence Washington’s funding due to systemic pressures. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that, given current tensions, it is "almost impossible" for relations to deteriorate further. President Vladimir Putin, he added, is open to constructive dialogue based on fairness and mutual respect, though he expressed skepticism about the current U.S. administration's approach. Peskov said Moscow will “carefully analyze everything, monitor everything, and will draw conclusions based on specific words and specific steps." Reuters Reuters  

‘NATO or Nukes’: Why Ukraine’s nuclear revival refuses to die.At a recent European Council meeting in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the issue of Ukraine’s security, alluding to nuclear rearmament as a last-resort option if NATO membership remains out of reach. He highlighted the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which offered security assurances from the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia when Ukraine surrendered its inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal. Zelensky emphasized that while NATO nations enjoy peace under nuclear deterrence, non-nuclear Ukraine has faced relentless Russian aggression. Zelensky later clarified that Ukraine has no immediate plans to pursue nuclear weapons, affirming commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Nonetheless, Zelensky’s remarks underscore a sobering message: in a world where NATO's nuclear umbrella shields its members, Ukraine's vulnerability persists, pushing it to contemplate all means of securing peace amid an enduring Russian threat. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

‘Significant number’ of North Korean troops reportedly killed in first clash with Ukrainian soldiers.  A significant number of North Korean soldiers were reportedly killed in their first encounter with Ukrainian forces, officials said, marking North Korea's entry into Russia's war on Ukraine. North Korean troops suffered these losses recently fighting alongside Russia’s 810 Separate Naval Infantry Brigade in the Kursk region, where Ukraine holds about 250 square miles. Approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to support Russia’s push to reclaim territory, although most have yet to see action.  New York Times

Zelensky says clashes with North Korean troops are the next step to instability. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday the Ukrainian military's first clashes with North Korean troops had opened the way to more instability in the world. "The first battles with North Korean soldiers have opened a new chapter of instability in the world," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also confirmed an armed engagement had taken place with North Korean troops in an interview with South Korean television. Reuters

Putin makes Ukraine war veteran a governor as the military gains prestige.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Yevgeny Pervyshov, a Ukraine war veteran, as interim governor of Russia's Tambov region, marking the highest political post given to a war participant. This move reflects Putin's ambition to create a "new elite" of patriotic veterans in civilian leadership roles. Pervyshov, a former mayor and veteran of the BARS Kaskad reserve unit, participated in the "Time of Heroes" program, designed to reward war veterans with government positions. Analysts note this strategy attracts more men to the front lines by promoting war as a path to power, although critics argue the appointees remain largely symbolic. Washington Post

Ukrainian defenses in Donbas risk getting steamrolled by Russian advance. Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas face growing strain as Russian forces press a steady advance, posing a threat to key areas like Pokrovsk. This “fortress” town is crucial for Ukrainian logistics, and its fall would open paths for Russian expansion in Donetsk. Russia’s territorial gains—478 square kilometers in October—reflect Ukraine’s difficulty in reinforcing battle-hardened units, relying on newly mobilized, less experienced brigades. Kamikaze drones and glide bombs enable Russia’s success in this “war of movement,” while winter conditions may not hinder their advance. Analysts warn Pokrovsk’s capture could be a pivotal shift, risking a Russian thrust deeper into Ukrainian territory. France 24

Russian Drone Jockeys Hunt Front-Line Shop Clerks and Repairmen in Ukraine. In Kherson, a southern Ukrainian regional capital, civilians endure relentless Russian drone attacks that target individuals in populated areas. Since Ukraine retook Kherson, Russian forces across the Dnipro River have launched over 7,000 drone assaults, injuring nearly 600 and killing 50. These attacks, captured on social media, show drones following pedestrians and dropping grenades. Kherson’s regional government has deployed anti-drone measures, but evacuation is encouraged as staying safe has become increasingly difficult. Many hesitate to leave their homes despite the dangers. Wall Street Journal

Google responds to claims map images revealed locations of Ukrainian weapons. Google clarified on Tuesday that satellite images on Google Maps showing Ukrainian defense sites are over a year old and from publicly available sources, countering claims they revealed recent locations. Google stated that it avoids posting current images of conflict zones and maintains close communication with Ukrainian officials to address concerns promptly. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian Legion in Poland reportedly receives over 500 applications in a month. The Ukrainian Legion’s new recruitment center in Lublin, Poland, received over 500 applications in a month from Ukrainians in 30 countries, aiming to bolster Ukraine’s military amidst the ongoing war with Russia. Launched in July, the volunteer unit allows Ukrainians abroad to serve while returning to Poland post-deployment. Most applicants are from Poland, Czechia, and other diaspora regions, with 80% lacking prior military experience. Initial contracts and training are expected by year-end. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian-born Representative Victoria Spartz wins reelection for Congress. Ukrainian-born Congresswoman Victoria Spartz won reelection in Indiana's 5th district with 57% of the vote, supported by gun rights and pro-life groups. Although initially backing Ukraine, she opposed a major aid bill and has criticized Ukrainian leaders. First elected in 2021, Spartz remains a strong Donald Trump supporter. With Republicans gaining Senate control and Trump’s victory, U.S. policy on the Russia-Ukraine war may shift, raising concerns over potential compromises with Moscow. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Nov. 6. North Korean forces have reportedly engaged in combat with Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, with Russian efforts to integrate them into its military structure. The Kremlin appointed veteran Yevgeny Pervyshov, a "Time of Heroes" alumnus, as acting head of Tambov Oblast, advancing a strategy to militarize government bodies with pro-war officials. Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites on Tuesday, highlighting an expanding Russian-Iranian space partnership. The Russian military faces challenges in maintaining quality personnel in traditionally elite units.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne. Ukrainian forces regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: North Korean troops in Europe mark a turning point. NATO’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte warns of escalating global risks from Russia’s deepening reliance on authoritarian allies like North Korea. A recent briefing revealed that North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region to support the war against Ukraine—marking the first foreign troops on Russian soil in a century. Rutte criticizes Putin’s dependence on authoritarian partners, highlighting North Korea’s provision of munitions, drones from Iran, and China’s economic backing. This alliance not only escalates the war but also risks empowering Kim Jong Un, whom Russia supports with military technology, threatening regional stability. Rutte urges NATO to increase support for Ukraine, stating that the modest investment is critical to global security. He calls for intensified cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies, particularly in intelligence-sharing and defense. To alter the war’s trajectory, he emphasizes a need to increase political and financial commitments to counter Russia’s aggression. Politico EU

Opinion: Czechia’s quiet struggle for artillery shells holds lessons for Europe. Zdeněk Rod and Michael Jarkovský argue that Czechia’s struggles to secure artillery shells for Ukraine reveal critical lessons for Europe’s defense industry. They call for a more unified European response to ammunition shortages, emphasizing the need for streamlined funding, production, and reliable supply chains. Czechia’s initiative, while partially successful, faces funding delays, logistical challenges, and quality control issues, with some ammunition reportedly failing in the field. Rod and Jarkovský suggest that Europe’s fragmented defense infrastructure undermines urgent efforts, advocating for a coordinated, robust industrial strategy to meet Ukraine’s and Europe’s growing defense needs. Defense News

Opinion: Putin’s 2022 ‘peace proposal’ was a blueprint for the destruction of Ukraine. Peter Dickinson argues that Russia's purported peace offer in early 2022 was less a negotiation than a blueprint for Ukraine’s capitulation. Citing newly released documents, Dickinson reveals the Kremlin’s extreme demands: Ukraine would have ceded Crimea and the Donbas, dismantled its military, renounced NATO ambitions, and accepted severe restrictions on national identity. Rather than offering peace, Vladimir Putin’s proposal aimed to leave Ukraine defenseless and vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Dickinson dismisses calls for territorial concessions, noting that such appeasement would only fuel Putin's imperial ambitions and threaten Ukraine's survival. Atlantic Council

AMERICAS

As the Middle East crisis grinds on, the Pentagon shows signs of strain. The ongoing Middle East crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. military readiness, particularly as the Pentagon faces multiple demands from conflicts in Ukraine, tensions with China, and the growing need for support in the Persian Gulf. With the sole U.S. aircraft carrier in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln, now redeploying, the Pentagon will rely on other forces, but the strain on resources is evident. The U.S. is also running low on munitions crucial for defending allies and protecting commercial routes. Officials warn that depleted stockpiles could limit U.S. responses in future conflicts, especially concerning potential escalations with China over Taiwan. Washington Post

U.S. official reports little disruption of election infrastructure linked to foreign interference.A senior U.S. cyber official reported no significant foreign interference affecting election infrastructure during the presidential election, despite ongoing disinformation attempts. Cait Conley from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency confirmed that no major security incidents have impacted voter databases, tabulators, or vote-counting systems as of early Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, the FBI issued a warning about fake videos spreading misinformation.

Russian interference was suspected, with fake videos purporting voter fraud and staged assault incidents to inflame partisan tensions. The Russian Embassy has denied all claims of involvement. Technical issues like long lines, software delays, and ballot misprints were among the logistical challenges voters faced. Conley urged vigilance, noting that foreign adversaries aim to undermine public confidence in democratic institutions and foster discord in the post-election period. Reuters The Record 

FBI links hoax bomb threats in swing states to Russian threat actors.Hoax bomb threats, likely originating from Russian email domains, targeted polling locations in five U.S. battleground states—Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—on Election Day and caused brief disruptions. While the FBI confirmed that none of the threats were credible, some polling sites, including those in Georgia’s Fulton and DeKalb counties, were briefly evacuated, prompting requests to extend voting hours. Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other officials attributed the threats to Russian interference, and reports indicated that email addresses linked to previous Russian election meddling were used. Additional threats affected polling sites in Wisconsin and Arizona, with officials in these states noting potential Russian ties. In Pennsylvania, voting hours were extended due to a bomb threat at a vote-counting site. These threats follow a recent pattern of alleged Russian attempts to influence the election, including fabricated videos suggesting voter fraud and bribery accusations against the Harris campaign. Moscow’s embassy in Washington staunchly denied any interference, claiming to have respect for the U.S. electoral process. Reuters NBC News 

Western officials say exploding parcels in Europe were part of scheme to target U.S. flights.  Western security officials believe that exploding parcels at logistics depots in Europe over the summer were a test for a Russian plot aimed at triggering explosions on cargo flights to the United States. Explosions at courier depots in Britain, Germany, and Poland in July, which a Lithuanian official attributed to Russia, could mark a dangerous escalation. Moscow could target critical infrastructure and potentially endanger lives. Western intelligence suggests Russia’s GRU intended these explosive parcels, which were found in DHL depots, to ignite fires on cargo or passenger flights bound for North America. In October, Poland detained four suspects linked to explosive parcels, reportedly sent from Lithuania. Several countries are actively investigating the matter, with arrests made in Poland and Lithuania. The U.S. and Canadian authorities have increased security measures, while Canada has directly warned Russia about any threat to its citizens. Poland recently closed Russia's consulate in Poznan due to suspected sabotage. British security leaders also accuse Russia's intelligence agency of instigating widespread “mayhem” across Europe. Reuters Associated Press 

Migrant caravan of 3,000 in Mexico north-bound as Americans vote.  A caravan of around 3,000 migrants departed from Tapachula in southern Mexico, heading toward the U.S. on the same day as the U.S. presidential election. Migrants in the caravan, primarily from Honduras and Venezuela, carried banners and religious symbols, hoping to draw attention to their plight. Many cited safety concerns, such as the threat of kidnapping or violence from cartels, as reasons for traveling in a large group. Tapachula, a dangerous transit hub for migrants, has seen a sharp increase in crime targeting migrants. Reuters

Colombia to purchase Saab fighter aircraft, according to Swedish public radio.  Colombia is reportedly planning to purchase a fleet of JAS Gripen fighter jets from Sweden’s Saab, though the government has not confirmed the deal. Saab shares rose following the news, but the company stated that no contract has been signed yet, despite previous discussions with Colombia. Colombian Defense Minister Ivan Velasquez clarified that no final decision has been made, and any official announcement will come from the president. Saab has been seeking to expand Gripen sales in Latin America, producing the aircraft in Brazil in partnership with Embraer. Colombia has been considering options to replace its aging Kfir fighter jets, with prior talks in 2022 with Saab and French company Dassault Aviation ultimately falling through. Reuters Army Recognition

Brazilian police official named the next chief of Interpol. Brazilian police official Valdecy Urquiza has been elected as the new secretary-general of Interpol, marking the first time the global police organization will be led by someone from outside Europe or the U.S. Urquiza, currently Interpol's vice president for the Americas, will assume his role following the organization’s general assembly in Glasgow. He succeeds Germany's Jürgen Stock, who cannot seek a third term. Urquiza pledged to enhance diversity within Interpol, which coordinates among 196 member countries to address issues like counterterrorism, cybercrime, and organized crime. Interpol, which celebrated its centennial last year, has faced challenges with rising cybercrime cases and internal divisions. Its 2023 budget was approximately €176 million, smaller than Europol and significantly less than the FBI's $11 billion budget. Associated Press Interpol 

EUROPE

European leaders seek to chart a common future, but all eyes are glued to Washington. As European leaders convene in Budapest on Thursday, they face a critical turning point, particularly in light of a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a vocal Trump supporter, hosting the summit, tensions over future transatlantic relations loom. Trump’s vow to end the Ukraine war swiftly has alarmed Kyiv, anticipating a potential reduction in U.S. support. Orbán’s stance, underscored by his “Make Europe Great Again” motto and independent diplomacy with Moscow and Beijing, has strained European Union unity. Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urges a more self-reliant European approach, anticipating seismic shifts ahead. “Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us, on the condition that Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength,” Tusk said in the days ahead of the summit. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.” Associated Press

Georgian Court Rejects Monitors' Request To Cancel Results In 14 Election Precincts. A Georgia court rejected a petition by election monitors to annul results from several precincts in Georgia’s Oct. 26 parliamentary election, where violations of voter confidentiality were observed. The Moscow-aligned Georgian Dream party claimed victory with 54%, sparking opposition protests over alleged fraud. Pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili and opposition leaders, including Nika Melia, refuse to recognize the results. Opposition groups demand fresh elections and urge Western partners not to accept the outcome. Protests continue across Tbilisi, with more planned, including a rally on Nov. 9. RFE/RL

Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices. Russia’s oil revenue, a major funding source for its war on Ukraine, saw a sharp decline in October, with oil-related tax revenue dropping 29% and overall oil and gas proceeds down 25% year-over-year. Falling crude prices, partly due to increased U.S. production and stable Middle East oil infrastructure, have pressured Russia’s revenue streams. Brent and Urals crude prices dropped, cutting into the Kremlin's budget, which historically comprises 30-50% of federal income. This revenue shortfall challenges Moscow’s war-driven economy, which faces escalating defense costs set to peak by 2025. Business Insider 

Poland indicts two men in connection with spying for Belarus. Polish prosecutors have indicted a 53-year-old Belarusian, Nikolay M., and a 59-year-old Polish citizen, Bernard S., on charges related to espionage for Belarus. Detained in March 2023, the men allegedly conducted reconnaissance on a military airport and monitored rail infrastructure and military movements. Bernard S. reportedly assisted by providing accommodation and organizing Nikolay M.’s stay in Poland. As a key logistics hub for Ukraine, Poland has faced increased espionage activity, particularly from Russian and Belarusian operatives. Reuters

Far-right activist, infamous for Koran burnings, convicted in Sweden of hate speech against Muslims. A Swedish court on Tuesday sentenced far-right activist Rasmus Paludan to four months in prison for hate crimes against Muslims, stemming from Koran burnings and offensive remarks. Known for staging inflammatory public actions, Paludan's actions triggered riots in Sweden in 2022. While Sweden permits burning religious texts under freedom of speech laws, inciting hatred against ethnic or religious groups is illegal. Authorities may now restrict gatherings if they pose national security risks. Reuters Associated Press Deutsche Welle The Guardian 

French court convicts 18 in a major trial that casts light on the deadly migrant-smuggling trade. A French court convicted 18 individuals involved in a people-smuggling network responsible for organizing dangerous English Channel crossings from 2020 to 2022. Iraqi national Mirkhan Rasoul, the alleged leader, received a 15-year sentence, with other sentences ranging from two to ten years. The case, stemming from a 2022 pan-European operation, exposed these journeys' high profits and deadly risks. With 56 migrant deaths this year, British and French authorities have committed to strengthening cooperation to curb these perilous crossings. Associated Press Al Jazeera Euronews Le Monde  

Greek police seize large cache of explosives and arrest 5 in organized crime crackdown. Greek police seized 60 kilograms of ammonium dynamite, military-grade explosives, assault rifles, and nearly 6,000 rounds of ammunition in Athens, targeting a major criminal weapons network. Five individuals were arrested. The raids, which uncovered additional cash and gold, followed recent terrorism-related arrests after a deadly Athens bombing, though links remain unconfirmed. Associated Press 

MIDDLE EAST

Iranian currency plummets to all-time low as Trump claims the U.S. presidency. Iran’s currency hit an all-time low on Wednesday, trading at 703,000 rials to the dollar, as former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared close to securing the presidency again. Concerns in Iran are growing over the potential for intensified sanctions under a Trump administration, exacerbating existing economic struggles from years of sanctions and a weak currency. Since Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran’s rial has sharply declined from 32,000 to over 700,000 to the dollar. Iran’s current reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has aimed to ease Western sanctions. Despite government efforts to downplay the impact of the U.S. election on Iran, many Iranians express concerns about worsening economic and social conditions. Meanwhile, Tehran remains involved in regional conflicts, supporting allies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis amid ongoing hostilities with Israel. Some in Tehran voice strong opposition to Trump, while others, seeking pragmatism, are open to any deal that might stabilize the economy. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, Russia 'emerging axis' troubling, says Australia intelligence chief. Australia’s intelligence chief Andrew Shearer on Wednesday described a “profoundly troubling” alliance among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, noting that China’s economic and diplomatic support aids Russia’s war on Ukraine. Speaking in Canberra, Shearer highlighted China’s dual-use assistance, along with Iranian drones and North Korean missiles and troops backing Russia. He criticized the West’s struggle to address this growing strategic axis, which he sees as a severe, underestimated threat. Reuters

Chinese foreign ministry says nation will cooperate with U.S. on basis of mutual respect, hopes for ‘peaceful coexistence.’  China's foreign ministry stated on Wednesday that it will continue working with the U.S. based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, following Donald Trump’s claim of victory in the U.S. presidential election. Chinese officials expect heightened rhetoric and possible tariffs from Trump, who has previously suggested imposing tariffs over 60% on Chinese imports and revoking Beijing’s most-favored-nation trade status. China exports over $400 billion in goods annually to the U.S., and any potential trade war could impact its economy, which relies heavily on exports for growth amidst weaker domestic spending. China’s foreign ministry reaffirmed its consistent approach to Washington-Beijing relations, focusing on stability and cooperation. Reuters

China's state secrets leak prompts rare death sentence for ex-employee. China's Ministry of State Security on Wednesday announced a rare death sentence for a former state agency employee for leaking state secrets to foreign intelligence. Accused of handing over sensitive information on a USB drive, the person – identified only as Zhang – allegedly succumbed to foreign bribes and espionage pressures, highlighting China’s intensified crackdown on espionage. Unlike similar cases, Zhang received no suspended sentence, reflecting China's escalating stance on national security violations amid global tensions. Reuters

China to import Russian tech and expertise to boost low-altitude defenses. China’s recent agreement with Russia to import low-altitude drone defense technology indicated deepening military collaboration between the two nations. The deal is signed by Guangxi Xinhang Shengjie Emergency Industrial Park Management Company and Russia’s Ufa State Aviation Technical University. It includes Russian expert support for the Chinese development of drones and counter-drone systems. This cooperation aligns with increased military ties between China and Russia, particularly amidst Western sanctions and strategic U.S. concerns over their support for Russia’s military capabilities, including drone technology potentially benefiting Russia’s actions in Ukraine. South China Morning Post 

US will continue Taiwan-friendly approach after election, senior Taiwan official says. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said Wednesday that the U.S. will likely maintain a Taiwan-friendly stance after its presidential election. Taiwan aims to prevent Chinese interference during the U.S. administration transition. Taiwan's government continues to collaborate with international allies to monitor China’s actions, and officials downplay economic impacts regardless of the election’s outcome. Taiwan emphasizes self-governance, rejecting China’s sovereignty claims and reinforcing the U.S. as its key backer. Reuters

Taiwan and Britain hold a new round of trade talks. This week, Taiwan and Britain began new trade talks centered on investment and green energy following their Enhanced Trade Partnership signed last year. Taiwan, viewing Britain as a key democratic ally amid China's growing military presence, seeks stronger global engagement and expanded trade ties. Discussions include digital trade and renewable energy. Reuters Nikkei Asia 

Southeast Asia lacks unity required for ‘Asian NATO,’ Philippines defense chief says. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro ruled out a NATO-style alliance in Southeast Asia, citing divergent interests within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Speaking at a Manila security forum on Tuesday, he emphasized the region’s complex alliances—some countries align with the U.S., others with China. Teodoro called for ASEAN unity against China's actions in the South China Sea, highlighting confrontations with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia. He urged fast-tracking a code of conduct with China to manage disputes, referencing the 2016 Hague ruling invalidating Beijing’s claims, which China disregards. South China Morning Post 

Malaysian ex-fugitive gets 15-year sentence for U.S. Navy corruption scandal. Leonard “Fat Leonard” Francis was sentenced on Tuesday to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay $20 million in restitution for orchestrating a massive corruption scheme involving U.S. Navy officers. Through his company, Glenn Defense Marine Asia, Francis bribed Navy personnel with luxury travel, cash, lavish meals, and prostitutes to secure inflated contracts for ship services across Asia, defrauding the Navy of at least $35 million. Although Francis cooperated with prosecutors, leading to multiple convictions, he escaped custody in 2022 while awaiting sentencing and was later captured in Venezuela. His 15-year sentence accounts for time already served, reducing his remaining term to about eight years. His actions, spanning years, exposed systemic corruption within the Navy’s 7th Fleet, with more than 30 personnel convicted and hundreds under review. The scandal underscores military oversight and accountability vulnerabilities, especially regarding contractor influence and personnel ethics. South China Morning Post

Afghan opium cultivation bounces and shifts two years after ban, UN says. Two years after the Taliban’s 2022 opium ban, Afghan opium cultivation rebounded by 19% in 2024 but remains well below pre-ban levels, according to a United Nations report. The primary production area shifted from the southwest to the northeast, where cultivation surged 381%, especially in Badakhshan. Meanwhile, opium prices rose significantly, stabilizing at $730 per kilogram, well above pre-ban prices. High prices and limited stock may drive farmers to continue illegal cultivation, particularly in remote areas. Helmand was a notable exception in the southwest, seeing a 434% increase from a low base, contrasting with regional declines. Reuters

Opinion: India and the West occupy different worlds. Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior fellow at Chatham House, highlights the distinct worldviews separating India and the West despite shared democratic values. India’s geopolitical stance reflects its historical volatility and quest for stability, contrasting with the West’s interventionist approach. Shaped by self-interest, India’s pragmatic foreign policy takes a cautious stance on global issues like Ukraine and the Middle East, favoring economic development over geopolitical entanglements. Decades of mistrust persist, fueled by perceived Western unreliability, from Cold War alliances to recent tensions with Canada. Bajpaee argues that acknowledging these differences is crucial to avoiding misunderstandings as the relationship deepens. Nikkei Asia

AFRICA

South Africa and Britain to strengthen trade and defense ties.South Africa and Britain agreed to strengthen trade and defense ties, focusing on economic development, counter-terrorism, and a just energy transition. Bilateral trade, valued at $7.62 billion last year, aims for growth with a UK-South Africa plan to boost agricultural jobs and exports. South African Minister Ronald Lamola and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy discussed these priorities, emphasizing a reset after pandemic-related stagnation. Reuters

The U.S. writes off over $1 billion of Somalia's debt. On Tuesday, the United States forgave $1.14 billion of Somalia’s debt as part of a broader debt relief agreement. This debt forgiveness complements $1.2 billion in U.S. assistance to Somalia this year. Somalian Finance Minister Bihi Egeh praised the support that followed reforms under international debt relief programs. Despite projected economic growth, Somalia faces risks from grain supply disruptions due to the Ukraine war and ongoing regional instability. Bloomberg South China Morning Post Barron's 

South Africa shuts main border with Mozambique as protests over disputed election surge. South Africa has temporarily shuttered its main border crossing with Mozambique, the Lebombo port of entry, due to safety concerns amid intensifying protests in Mozambique over its disputed October 9 election. The closure follows reports of vehicles being torched on the Mozambican side, and South African officials have stated that the border will reopen once it is deemed safe. The protests are being led by presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane, who disputes the election results. The demonstrations have spiraled, involving roadblocks, tire burnings, and confrontations with authorities, and resulting in at least 10 deaths and multiple injuries. Authorities have responded with tear gas, live ammunition, and internet restrictions. Mozambique's electoral commission has not commented on the alleged fraud claims, and the ruling party, Frelimo, has also remained silent. Reuters BBC 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. lawmaker calls for probe into China’s chipmaker SMIC over suspected Huawei ties. Republican lawmaker Michael McCaul, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized the Biden administration for not adequately restricting China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) from advancing China’s chip industry and military capabilities. McCaul urged the U.S. Commerce Department to inspect SMIC’s facilities to verify if they are illegally producing chips for Huawei, which is under U.S. sanctions. In a letter, McCaul expressed bipartisan frustration over the lack of action, citing evidence that SMIC may be violating U.S. export controls. He suggested that if China refuses a full audit of SMIC, the Commerce Department should halt existing licenses for SMIC. He highlighted recent breakthroughs, including Huawei’s advanced chip and anticipated AI processor production, as evidence that Beijing could outpace Washington in AI development. The Commerce Department confirmed it had received McCaul’s letter and would respond appropriately. Both SMIC and Huawei, placed on the U.S. restricted trade list due to alleged military ties, have denied any wrongdoing. The Chinese embassy also accused U.S. politicians of politicizing security and trade issues. Reuters South China Morning Post 

SpaceX requests that Taiwanese suppliers transfer production abroad over geopolitical worries.SpaceX has asked Taiwanese suppliers to move manufacturing outside Taiwan due to geopolitical concerns, leading some suppliers to shift production to Vietnam and Thailand. Companies like Chin-Poon Industrial and Wistron NeWeb Corporation (WNC) have begun relocating or expanding operations abroad in response. WNC, for example, is increasing production in its Vietnamese plant, primarily to fulfill Starlink-related orders, and plans to double its workforce. SpaceX’s actions come amid rising geopolitical tensions, with China claiming Taiwan as its territory and conducting frequent military exercises around the island. SpaceX has also shown interest in establishing a $1.5 billion satellite manufacturing hub in Vietnam. Taiwan's government responded that political factors should not impact its international supply chain relationships, though some Taiwanese satellite and semiconductor companies are diversifying their production locations to mitigate risk. Reuters South China Morning Post Taiwan News 

Interpol operation arrests 41, dismantle 22,000 malicious IPs. Interpol announced the arrest of 41 individuals and the seizure of hundreds of servers as part of a global operation to dismantle malicious IP addresses used in cybercrime. In the second phase of Operation Synergia, which was conducted from April to August, Interpol collaborated with law enforcement from 95 countries and cybersecurity firms such as Team Cymru, Kaspersky, Group-IB, and Trend Micro to identify and take down over 22,000 malicious IP addresses. They seized 43 devices and have 65 other suspects under investigation. The operation involved significant contributions from Hong Kong, which took down 1,037 servers, and Mongolia, where 21 searches led to one server seizure and the identification of 93 suspects. Macau took down 291 servers, Madagascar confiscated 11 devices, and Estonian police seized data linked to phishing and banking malware. Team Cymru’s platform aided in identifying and categorizing malicious infrastructure for Interpol. This follows an earlier phase of Operation Synergia, which led to 31 arrests and the identification of 1,300 servers involved in cyberattacks. The Record Interpol Bleeping Computer CyberSecurityNews 

Ransomware attack targets Georgia hospital’s record system.A ransomware attack by the Embargo gang targeted Memorial Hospital and Manor in Bainbridge, Georgia, disrupting access to the hospital’s electronic health records. The attack was discovered when virus protection software issued alerts, prompting the hospital to switch to a paper-based process. Embargo, a relatively new ransomware group using advanced tools to bypass security, claimed responsibility and threatened to leak 1.15 terabytes of stolen data by November 8 if a ransom is not paid. Embargo operates as a ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS), allowing affiliates like Storm-0501 to launch attacks on healthcare facilities in exchange for a cut of the ransom. The gang has targeted other hospitals, including California’s NorthBay Vacaville and Idaho’s Weiser Memorial, leading to severe disruptions. Microsoft and Sophos report that ransomware attacks on U.S. healthcare institutions are on the rise, with ransoms averaging $4 million. The Record 

Canada detains suspected Snowflake hacker at DOJ's request. Canadian authorities recently arrested the hacker believed to be linked to roughly 165 breaches this year involving data stored on Snowflake accounts. Alexander “Connor” Moucka was detained at the request of U.S. officials, for allegedly orchestrating a series of data breaches on Snowflake accounts that affected major companies such as AT&T, Ticketmaster, Advance Auto Parts, and LendingTree. These breaches exposed significant data, including logs of calls and texts for over 100 million AT&T customers and information on 560 million Ticketmaster users, sparking global concern. Moucka reportedly anticipated his arrest and attempted to destroy evidence beforehand. Canada’s Justice Department confirmed the arrest but withheld details, citing confidentiality in extradition matters. An investigation by cybersecurity firm Mandiant, hired by Snowflake, found no issues in Snowflake’s platform security. Instead, hackers used still-valid credentials dating back to 2020 to access accounts. Mandiant linked Moucka to collaborators in North America and Turkey, including John Erin Binns, a suspected Turkish hacker detained in May for his involvement in other high-profile cyber incidents. The Record Wired Cyberscoop  

Japan launches world's first wooden satellite into space. Japan launched the world’s first wooden satellite into orbit aboard a SpaceX rocket this week, as part of a resupply mission to the International Space Station (ISS), according to its Japanese developers at Kyoto University and Sumitomo Forestry. The small, box-shaped satellite, called LignoSat and measuring 10 cm per side, is made from wood to explore eco-friendly materials in space technology. Upon re-entry, the wooden material is expected to burn up, potentially reducing the environmental impact compared to metal satellites, which can release harmful particles. Once at the ISS, LignoSat will be stay for about a month before being released into space to test its durability and resilience to temperature changes. Data collected will help researchers assess its performance, with hopes that wood could be a sustainable material for future satellites. Space.com New York Times South China Morning Post BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters  

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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