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Wednesday, May 3, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden to Transfer 1,500 Soldiers to Mexican Border Ahead of Immigration Leap as Cities Declare States of Emergency. The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that they will be sending 1,500 additional troops to the US-Mexico border in preparation for a rise in illegal immigration as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted by the end of the month. The troops will be deployed for 90 days and will supplement the US Border Patrol, but will not carry out law enforcement duties. According to Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder, the troops will provide ground monitoring, warehouse support, and data entry. These troops are being sent in addition to the current deployment of 2,500 national guard troops.  Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal

U.S. and Mexico Agree on Stricter Policies to Deter Illegal Border Crossings. The US and Mexican governments both released statements this week that they had agreed on new immigration policies following a meeting with Homeland Security advisor Liz Sherwood-Randall, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and other top officials. The five point plan is to help deter illegal border crossings ahead of COVID-19 restrictions being lifted. Mexico will continue to accept migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba, and Nicaragua who entered the U.S. illegally, and up to 100,000 additional individuals from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador will be eligible to live and work in the U.S. under a family reunification program.  Associated Press 

Suspect Accused of Killing 5 in Texas Shooting Arrested after Manhunt. Police in Texas announced on Tuesday that they had captured Francisco Oropesa, the man accused of shooting five of his neighbors, following a four day hunt. Oropesa was apprehended in San Jacinto county based on an anonymous tip, according to county Sheriff Greg Capers. Oropesa, a Mexican national, had reportedly been deported from the US four times since 2009 according to officials.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters

Cuba Hosts Cease-fire Talks for Colombians Government, Rebel Group.  Colombia’s government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels started their third round of peace talks on Tuesday in Havana, Cuba.  Both sides say they are working towards a preliminary, gradual ceasefire as a first step towards a long term peace.  The talks come after an ELN attack in late March killed nine Colombian soldiers, threatening to derail the peace process.  Al Jazeera Associated Press

Western Europe

“War Economy Mode:” EU Seeks to Increase Ammunition Manufacturing to Aid Ukraine. E.U. executives proposed a plan that sets aside over 500 million euros to increase ammunition production to support Ukraine and bolster stocks of E.U. countries. The plan will subsidize European arms firms for increased missile and ammunition production.  The new plan will add to the 1 billion euros the E.U. has already set aside arms it will send to Ukraine from stockpiles, as well as another billion euros for joint procurement plans. Reuters

Denmark Defense Minister Announces $250 Million Worth of Military Equipment to Ukraine, and Pull out of Iraq. Denmark’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced on Tuesday that the Nordic country will donate military equipment and financial support to Ukraine worth $250 million USD. During the announcement, Poulsen also said that Denmark will reduce its military presence in Iraq beginning in 2024, and will instead begin focusing on sending troops to Baltic countries via a NATO battalion. Despite the pull out, Poulsen said that Denmark will continue to provide staff and serve as an advisor to NATO’s mission to Iraq.  Reuters 

Central & Eastern Europe

Ukraine's Zelenskiy arrives in Finland for Regional Security Summit.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksiy arrived in Helsinki amid tight security where he is expected to take part in a regional summit.  Zelenskiy will hold bi-lateral talks with the President of Finland before taking part in a broader meeting that will also include leaders from Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland.  Finnish President Sauli Niinisto’s office says the focus of the summit is the Russian war in Ukraine, Nordic countries' support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s relationship with the EU & NATO.  Zelelnksiy’s visit to Finland, one of only a few trips he’s made outside of Ukraine, was only announced after he arrived.  Reuters

Russia Says Ukrainian Drones Flown at Kremlin in Assassination Attempt Against Putin.  Russian state media says that two Ukrainian drones were flown towards the Kremlin.  Russian officials say they intercepted and destroyed the drones.  Moscow says that the incident was an assassination attempt on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s life.  CNN says they have not been able to verify the facts presented by Russia.  CNN New York Times Reuters

UPDATE (10:37 E.T.): The New York Times has verified footage of an apparent drone flying toward and exploding over the Kremlin Senate building.  Russia claimed the drone was launched in an attack aimed at assassinating Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was not in the Kremlin at the time.  Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has denied Ukraine’s involvement and said Moscow will use the claim to launch a “large-scale terrorist provocation.” When asked about the alleged attack, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he could not confirm it since “we simply don’t know,” adding that he takes anything the Kremlin says “with a very large shaker of salt.”  In regards to the U.S. position on such an attack, he said it is part of decisions for Ukraine to make about “how it’s going to defend itself.”

Drone Strikes Hit Oil Depots in Russia, Ukraine.  Oil depots in both Russia and Ukraine caught fire on Wednesday after alleged drone strikes.  Russian authorities said a Ukrainian drone crashed into an oil terminal in the village of Volna in Russia’s Krasnodar region, near the bridge Russia built near occupied Crimea.  Regional officials classified the fire at the “highest rank of difficulty.”  In Ukraine, officials said a Russian drone strike hit a fuel depot in the central city of Kropyvnytskyi.  Elsewhere in Ukraine, officials reported missile defenses shot down 21 of 26 Iranian-made drones, though an administrative building in the southern Dnipropetrovsk region was hit in the attack.  The attacks add to the escalating drone war between Russia and Ukraine in recent days ahead of Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive.  Reuter

Explosion Derails Train in Russian Region Bordering Ukraine for Second Day in a Row.  An explosion near the Snezhetskaya railway station in Russia’s western Bryansk region derailed a freight train on Tuesday.  The blast came one day after a separate explosion in Bryansk, which borders Ukraine, caused another freight train to derail.  Russian authorities have blamed attacks on infrastructure in the region on pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups.  BBC Reuters

Ukraine Promises Not to Lose Bakhmut As Time for Counteroffensive Grows Nearer.  Ukraine is vowing to hold the eastern city of Bakhmut as it prepares for an anticipated counteroffensive.  General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, visited the embattled city on Tuesday and said Ukraine’s military will work to ensure the defense of Bakhmut while “inflicting maximum losses” on Russian forces.  His comments came a day after he and other Ukrainian officials claimed some Russian troops are being ousted from the city.  In contrast, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his mercenaries advanced in some areas of Bakhmut and repeated claims that Ukraine holds less than three square kilometers (1.2 square miles) of the city.  Reuters

Ukraine to Strengthen Air Defenses after Russian Missile Assaults. Following multiple deadly Russian missile barrages on Ukraine in recent weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is making plans to further protect Ukraine’s skies. This week, Ukrainian offenses managed to shoot down all but five of the 41 missiles fired by Russia. One of the missiles, however, landed on an apartment block in Uman, killing 23 people. Wall Street Journal

Moscow to Begin Purchasing Chinese Yuan For the First Time Since Invasion of Ukraine. Russia is likely to resume purchases of Chinese yuan for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war.  The move is a sign, according to analysts, that Western sanctions have failed to crippled Moscow’s ability to generate revenue from energy exports.  Economists predict that Moscow will seek to purchase around $200 million worth of Chinese yuan monthly, a small but highly symbolic amount.  The yuan is one of the few currencies available to Russia under the current sanctions program implemented by the US and European countries.  South China Morning Post

Ukraine Forces Slowed Down by Thick, Spring Mud: Counteroffensive Must Wait for Better Weather. While Ukraine faces increasing pressure to launch a counteroffensive, soldiers, arms, and vehicles are being impeded by the thick mud. Ukraine’s 43rd Separate Artillery Brigade, now well equipped with modern Western tanks and ammunition, pulled their new tanks from the field concerned they would be unable to escape from Russian attacks. Until the rains stop and summer heat dries out the ground, Ukrainian heavy forces will reportedly be stalled. New York Times

Russian Defense Head Urges Company to Double Missile Output. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has called for state owned defense company Tactical Missiles Corporation to double their production of high precision weapons as the war in Ukraine continues. Shoigu made this announcement during a meeting with top military officials, in which he also praised the company for “fulfilling contracts in a timely manner.”  Shoigu’s comments come amid reports that Russia is suffering shortages of ammunition to supply troops in Ukraine.  Al Jazeera Associated Press 

Asia & Oceania

U.S. Worried by China's 'Punitive' Measures Toward American Companies. US Officials in Washington are concerned by China’s “punitive” action against some US companies, according to US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns during a call with the Stimson Center think tank. Many foreign firms have also begun delaying investments in the country due to uncertainties regarding the openness of China’s economy. There are growing concerns due to recent exit bans, heightened scrutiny from Chinese officials, and China’s new counterespionage law.  Reuters

Philippines, U.S. Strengthening Ties Amid Chinese Intimidation in South China Sea.  The U.S. and Philippines are reaffirming their security alliance amid tensions over Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.  U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs said that a visit by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to the White House this week highlighted the strength and endurance of the alliance and underscores deep concern about China’s intimidation tactics to routine controls in the region.  Experts say this “inevitable” pivot by Manila to Washington over Beijing, which comes amid increasing concerns over how a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would impact the Philippines, is unlikely to spark a major shift in Southeast Asia towards the U.S. and that countries in the region will continue to balance relations with China and the U.S. in whatever way they believe will benefit them most.  Reuters South China Morning Post

China’s Cyberspace Censor Shuts Down over 4,000 Websites, Removes 55 Apps in 3 Months.  The Cyberspace Administration of China announced it has shut down over 4,200 sites and removed 55 apps from app stores for various breaches in the first quarter of this year.  The internet watchdog also said it had summoned owners of over 2,200 websites to rectify their content.  The watchdog said the crackdown is aimed at politically related content and “safeguarding” the public against “harmful information.”  South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Says Island Will Defend Itself in Conflict.  Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu raised heads Friday when he said that Taiwan must defend itself in a conflict and is not asking other countries to fight for it.  When asked about who would aid Taiwan in a potential war with China, he said it is a “very good question” and that while there are those “debating strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity,” Taiwan knows its “own responsibility” to itself.  Wu added that Taiwan seeks to maintain the status quo and hopes that war is not inevitable, saying that all must work to prevent the destruction that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would bring.  U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said Tuesday that Washington insists the resolution to the Taiwan issue must be peaceful and that the U.S. has an obligation and interest to provide arms to Taiwan to ensure the island has a strong defense for effective deterrence.  Associated Press

NATO to Open Japan Office.  NATO is reportedly planning to open a liaison office in Tokyo, the first such station from the military alliance in Asia.  Officials from both NATO and Japan confirmed the plan.  The office will reportedly facilitate consultations between NATO and Japan, as well as other partners in the region, including South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.  The office would mark a new stage in accelerating defense cooperation between NATO and Japan amid shared concerns over China and Russia.  Nikkei Asia

Middle East & Northern Africa

Rockets Fired from Gaza after Palestinian Hunger Striker Dies in Israeli Custody, Ceasefire Announced.  Israel and Palestinian armed groups agreed to a ceasefire after rockets were fired from Gaza following the death of a Palestinian hunger striker Khader Aman in Israeli custody earlier this week.  Palestinian groups called Aman’s death an assassination, which prompted the exchange of fire.   The Israeli military said that at least 30 rockets were launched from Gaza in the violence, setting off sirens in Southern Israel. Al Jazeera  Reuters

Iran Seizes Second Oil Tanker in Gulf Waters in a Week.  The U.S. Navy says Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy seized the Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.  The incident marks the second time Iran has seized an oil tanker in the Gulf in a week; Iran seized the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Advantage Sweet on Thursday in what analysts say was a response to a U.S. court order to seize an oil cargo on a separate Marshall Islands tanker.  Reuters

Iranian President Raisi Visiting Syria.  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is in Damascus for talks with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad.  Raisi’s trip marks the first visit by an Iranian head of state to Syria since the start of the Syrian war in 2011.  Iran has militarily backed Assad since the start of the war, which has played a pivotal role in shifting the conflict in his government’s favor.  Syrian state media reports that Raisi and Assad will discuss reconstruction efforts and refugee support.  Raisi’s visit comes as several Arab countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are beginning to open up to Assad after shunning him at the start of the war.  France 24 Reuters

Wary of Revolt, Iran Removes Morality Police and Resorts to Security Cameras to Punish Unveiled Women.  To address recent internal turmoil, the Islamic Regime of Iran is replacing the morality police with security cameras and denial of state services to any woman who refuses to wear the hijab. The morality police violently accosted many unveiled women and protestors, fueling the internal dissent for months, but the regime said morality police will no longer lead dress code enforcement. Today women are maintaining the revolution by walking unveiled through the streets, as an act of civil disobedience. Tehran is also asking businesses to refuse service to unveiled women.  Reuters

ISIS Leader Detonated Suicide Vest In Response to Turkish Raid. ISIS Leader Abu Hussein al-Qurashi is reportedly dead after he detonated a suicide vest during a raid by Turkish special forces in northwest Syria on Saturday, according to a senior Turkish official. The raid was led by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) with the help of Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups. Al-Qurashi was leader of the group for six months until his death.  Reuters

Explosion at IRGC Base Kills Two.  Two civilian workers are dead and three others are injured following an explosion at a base belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard according to the state-run IRNA news agency. According to the report, the explosion occurred during a “movement of ammunition.”  No other details have been provided.  Associated Press

Qatar Imprisons 8 Indians for Allegedly Spying for Israel.  Qatar has imprisoned eight Indian nationals for allegedly spying on a Qatari submarine program on behalf of Israel, which could carry the death penalty.  Media reports say the individuals are former officers in the Indian Navy and were employees of a company advising Qatar on acquiring Italian submarines that could evade radar detection.  India has tried to secure the release of the individuals but has been told by Qatar that there is evidence suggesting the alleged espionage.  Israel has not commented on the issue.  Al Jazeera

UN Allows Taliban’s FM to Meet with Chinese, Pakistani Counterparts.  An U.N. Security Council committee agreed to allow the Taliban’s interim foreign minister, Malawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, to meet his Chinese and Pakistani counterparts in Pakistan.  Pakistan’s U.N. mission requested the committee to allow Muttaqi to travel for the meeting as he is subject to a travel ban, asset freeze and arms embargo under U.N. Security Council sanctions.  The committee previously gave a travel exemption to Muttaqi last month to attend a meeting in Uzbekistan on regional security issues.  Al Jazeera RFE/RL

Sub Saharan Africa

Western Nations Criticize Wagner Group’s Actions in Mali, Alleged Civilian Killings.  Western countries at a U.N. human rights meeting in Geneva raised concerns about the presence of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali.  The countries raised particular concerns over allegations that Malian troops and Wagner mercenaries killed hundreds of civilians in Moura, central Mali, in March 2022.  Russia has denied the accusations and blamed the killings on local militants and Mali maintains it is investigating the matter.  Reuters

Sudan's Generals Again Prolong Theoretical Truce but Fighting Continues.  South Sudan’s foreign ministry says rival generals in Sudan have reportedly agreed to a seven-day truce starting on Thursday and will name representatives to start peace talks.  However, neither the Sudanese Army, under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, under Lt. General Mohamed Hamdan, has publicly confirmed the agreement.  News of the theoretical truce came as air strikes and fighting continued in the Khartoum capital region.  Previous ceasefires have only ranged from 24 to 72 hours and have constantly been violated.  The U.N. and countries around Sudan have sought to end the conflict in Sudan as it has triggered a major regional humanitarian crisis; the U.N. says the fighting has so far forced 100,000 people to flee Sudan to neighboring countries.  Al Jazeera The New York Times Reuters

Ugandan Official Shot and Killed by Bodyguard in Private Dispute.  Ugandan government minister and retired army colonel Charles Engola was shot and killed in his home in Kampala Tuesday by his bodyguard, who then turned the gun on himself, according to local media. The dispute was allegedly private, and concerned the guard’s wages. The event comes after the shootings and murders of several other government officials in Uganda.  Associated Press

Anti-Government Protests Resume in Kenya, Police Fire Tear Gas, Arrest 46. After a month-long pause, anti-government protestors returned to Nairobi’s streets to demonstrate against high living costs and alleged election fraud. The opposition leader Raila Odinga halted protests in early April to talk with President William Ruto, but accused the government of not acting in good faith and called for demonstrations to resume. Yesterday, police fired tear gas at a small group, and arrested 46 people saying the protests were unlawful. Reuters Associated Press 

Cyber & Tech

U.S., European Authorities Announce Arrests in Dark Web Drug Market Takedown. Joint investigations by U.S. and European law enforcement into the operations of a global dark web drug market have resulted in the arrests of almost 300 people.  A Europol statement on Tuesday explained that the seizure of the Monopoly Market infrastructure in December 2021 led to intelligence that enabled “hundreds of national investigations.”  The SpecTor law enforcement operation led to the arrests of 288 individuals, including 153 in the U.S.   Europol said that investigations are continuing into the identities of those associated with dark web accounts and that “thousands of customers across the globe are now at risk of prosecution as well.”  SpecTor also resulted in the seizure of 117 firearms, 850 kilograms of drugs, and $53.4 million in cash and virtual currencies, according to the U.S. Justice Department.  CyberScoop

Microsoft Says Iran Shifting to Combined Hacking-Influence Operations. Microsoft’s Digital Threats Analysis Center is out with a report today underscoring the growth of Iran’s combined info-ops and hacking campaigns in the past year.  Microsoft researchers tracked 24 distinct “cyber-enabled influence operations” in 2022, more than tripling the number monitored in 2021.  This trend, researchers noted, “coincides with a marked decrease in ransomware and wiper attacks linked to the Iranian military.”  The shift to influence operations reflects the increasing skill of Iranian threat groups “to acquire access to specific targets of interest and maintain persistence while avoiding detection.”  Among other targets, Iran’s influence efforts have focused on support for Palestinian causes, fomenting unrest in Bahrain, and seeking to undercut improving relations between Israel and Arab states.  CyberScoop

T-Mobile’s Second Data Breach This Year Leaks Customer Data. The second intrusion this year of T-Mobile systems resulted in the exposure of data of 836 customers from late February through March 30.  The company said exposed data could include names, contact information, account numbers, social security number, and government identification.  T-Mobile confirmed the hackers did not access call records or personal financial account information.  It is possible the exposed personal records contain enough information to enable identity theft.  After detecting the breach, T-Mobile took steps to reset affected customers’ account PIN’s and to offer them free credit monitoring and identity theft detection services.  ArsTechnica BleepingComputer

EU, U.S. Warn Malaysia of ‘National Security’ Risk in Huawei’s 5G Proposal. The U.S. and EU have warned of “national security risks” should Malaysia decide to change its 5G rollout plan and allow Huawei to incorporate its equipment in the country’s telecommunications infrastructure.  Malaysia had agreed to a single government-owned network that experts say means lower costs and a speedier rollout, but is considering a second 5G network.  Reportedly, Huawei has been lobbying to be involved in an expanded plan.  In a letter to the Malaysian government, U.S. Ambassador Brian McFeeters said, in part:  “Allowing untrusted suppliers in any part of the network also subjects Malaysia’s infrastructure to national security risks.”  Financial Times

FBI Adapting to Growing Threat from Chinese Cyber Operations. The FBI has made repeated public statements about the threat posed by China’s growing aggressiveness in cyberspace, including at last week’s RSA conference.  In an interview with TheRecord at the conference, Cynthia Kaiser, deputy assistant director of the FBI’s Cyber Division, noted how China is blending its intelligence and cyber operations, adding “we don't see a slowing down of those efforts.”  As the cyber threat from China mounts, Kaiser anticipates a continuation of U.S. intelligence sharing with the private sector.  Such collaboration, she said, would include “proactively sharing indicators of compromise or information about increased reconnaissance activities” while at the same time sharing information gleaned from commercial sources with Federal partners.  TheRecord

Chinese Cyberspace Agency in 2023 Closes Over 4,000 Websites, Outlaws 55 Apps. The Cyberspace Administration of China has cracked down on websites and apps it deems to be violating online content rules.  In the first quarter of 2023, the agency took steps to “safeguard” online security, including banning a dozen personal media platforms attempting to draw traffic by using site names similar to state media platforms or major news portals.  Multiple campaigns have been initiated by the agency over the last three months, especially to curtail “online rumors and information breaches” as well as to remove information damaging to the image of the Communist Party and government.  In the coming three months, the Cyberspace Administration plans to extend on-site supervision and inspections by enforcement teams mobilized in the provinces and prefectures.  South China Morning Post

Accidental Upload of Samsung Code Triggers Company Ban on ChatGPT Use. The accidental uploading by Samsung engineers of sensitive code on to the ChatGPT platform has resulted in a company ban on staff use of the AI tool.  A Samsung memo expressed concern that data sent to AI platforms is stored on external servers, complicating retrieval and increasing chances of protected data being made accessible to other users.  Samsung will no longer permit the use of generative AI on company-owned computers, tablets and phones, and on its internal networks.  The ban does not impact Samsung products sold to the public.  Bloomberg

Army Solicits Industry Ideas on Portable Electronic Attack, Sensing Capability. The Army is seeking to fill a key gap in capability through the solicitation of industry white papers for a portable electronic warfare system.  In inviting industry concepts, the Army is looking for a “manpack” solution for use by infantry as a portable component from the Terrestrial Layer System-Brigade Combat Team (TLS-BCT) platform.  Mark Kitz, program executive officer for intelligence, electronic warfare and sensors, in describing the Army’s solicitation noted “there is absolutely a gap” in capability for a dismounted or portable solution for soldiers.  DefenseScoop

Russian Cybercriminals Employ New Malware To Seize Control of Target Machines. Russian cybercriminals have been detected using a new malware that bypasses fraud detection and enables hidden, direct access to targeted systems.  The hVNC (Hidden Virtual Network Computing) employed by the Russian threat actor TA505 operates by tricking users into downloading fake installers containing backdoors through Google Ads and fake websites.  The malware, dubbed Lobshot, generates a hidden desktop and assigns it to the malware, which allows an attacker to gain remote control of the machine, including grabbing screenshots and manipulating the keyboard and mouse. TA505 has used Lobshot since last year, with more than 500 unique malware samples observed since July.  SecurityWeek

MIT Review Sees Generative AI Moving to “Niche” Applications. The MIT Technology Review sees potential for generative AI not so much in the broad-based approach of ChatGPT, but in narrower applications like self-hosted large language models (LLM) and domain-specific language models.  The advantages of more sharply focused AI models are that they avoid the growing concerns over privacy inherent in unbounded LLM’s.  Applied to specific domains, language models also could create information repositories offering ready retrieval of data on “product information, content, or internal documentation.”  The authors suggest limited versions of generative AI might calm public perceptions of a technology run amok and, in the medium-term, bring about a “subtly different relationship with the technology.”  MIT Technology Review

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