Wednesday, May 24, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
China’s New Ambassador to US Takes Up Post. China’s new ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, arrived in Washington on Tuesday to assume his embassy post, which has been vacant since December. Upon arrival in New York City, Xie told reporters that he will work to “enhance China-US exchanges and cooperation” amid “serious difficulties and challenges” in relations between the two countries. Xie most recently served as vice foreign minister in charge of policy towards the US and has a history of blunt remarks in criticism of the US and confrontational interactions with Biden administration officials. US-China tensions remain high over issues ranging from trade to Taiwan. Xie comes amid signals that the US and China are seeking renewed diplomacy to prevent further deterioration of bilateral ties; President Joe Biden said Sunday that he expects a “thaw” in US-China relations “very shortly.” Some experts say Xie’s arrival in the US may be the first sign of just that. (Editor’s Note: Read more about the diplomatic dance the US and China are in as they work on managing relations here.) Reuters Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post The Cipher Brief
Missouri Man Arrested for U-Haul Crash Near White House. Police have arrested 19-year-old Missouri native Sai Varshith Kandula for allegedly deliberately crashing a U-Haul into a security barrier of Lafayette Square near the White House on Monday night. Kandula faces multiple charges including attempting to kill the president or vice president, trespassing, assault with a dangerous weapon, destruction of federal property, and reckless operation of a motor vehicle. Kandula reportedly planned the attack for six months and told authorities that he intended to “seize power, and be put in charge of the nation” and was willing to “kill the President” or any one else to do so. Though he was unarmed and police did not find any weapons in his vehicle, Kandula did carry a Nazi flag and claimed that he respected their “great history” and “authoritarian nature.” There were no injuries in the incident. Kandula will appear in court Wednesday. Politico NBC News
UN Chief says World has Failed to Save Civilians From Conflict. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Tuesday that society must do better to protect civilians from violence. Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting, he warned that "the world is failing to live up to its commitments to protect civilians; commitments enshrined in international humanitarian law." He added that last year, the UN calculated a 53% increase in civilian deaths compared to 2021 and officials counted 17,000 deaths across 12 conflicts. Guterres additionally pointed to UN research that shows that 94% of victims of explosive weapons in urban areas were civilians in 2022. And Guterres highlighted that the number of refugees worldwide has reached 100 million, while 117 million people face starvation due to insecurity and war. Several others at the UN Security Council meeting echoed Guterres’ concerns, emphasizing issues from violence, persecution, conflict, and human rights violations. France 24
Canada Rules Out Public Inquiry Into Potential Election Interference. Canada’s special rapporteur in charge of investigations into allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections is recommending the government not conduct a public probe on the matter and is instead favoring a series of hearings. Questions over Chinese election interference follow reports in recent months, largely based on leaked intelligence, about alleged meddling in Canada’s last two federal elections, in 2019 and 2021, as well as reports of Chinese efforts to intimidate a Canadian politician. The rapporteur said that the issue cannot be handled in a public inquiry given the relevance of certain classified intelligence. He also said hearings should focus on the “serious shortcomings” in how Canadian security agencies communicate intelligence to government departments, while not attributing blame to the current government. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is backing the rapporteur’s recommendations, though critics are calling for a full public inquiry into the matter. BBC
Half of US Public Backs Continued Military Support for Ukraine. A new survey by the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy and NORC shows that half of the US public supports continuing military aid to Ukraine to counter Russian forces. The survey also concluded that the majority of both Democrats and Republicans believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unjustified, and that around three out of four people in the US support the US playing a role in the conflict, though the survey did indicate a drop in support for US sanctions, possibly due to concerns about inflation. In sum, the survey points to continued US popular and bipartisan support for Washington’s aiding of Ukraine, despite signals from some lawmakers that they are doubting whether to back further military support. Associated Press
Western Europe
EU Maintains it Will Send Ukraine Promised 1M Rounds of Ammunition. EU diplomat Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that the European Union is on schedule to transfer 1 million rounds of ammunition in 1 year to Ukraine after vowing to do so in March. Though the bloc has already sent 1,300 missiles and 220,000 shells to Kyiv, questions circulate about whether providing 1 million shells is a possibility. Sources say current EU donations of weapons to Ukraine amount to around 860 million euros. However, the EU will soon be forced to begin purchasing weapons and ammo from defense firms instead of using their reserves as EU nations are exhausting their supply of materials to donate. The EU has so far earmarked 1 billion euros for current donation reimbursements, along with another 1 billion euros for the planned joint ammo purchases. The final phase of the bloc’s plan to deliver military aid to Ukraine is to ultimately expand the ability of the continent to produce weapons and military materials. Politico
US Aircraft Carrier Arrives in Oslo. The US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Oslo on Wednesday for NATO exercises. The Norwegian military said that the ship, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, will train with Norwegian forces over the next few days in a “signal of the credibility of collective defense and deterrence.” Norwegian media also reports that the carrier will sail north of the Arctic Circle as part of the drills, though it has not been confirmed. The Russian embassy in Oslo condemned the aircraft carrier’s visit to the Norwegian capital, saying that there are no issues in the region that require a “military solution” or “outside intervention” and that the carrier’s presence is “illogical and harmful” since Russia poses “no direct military threat” to Norway. Norway is a NATO member that shares a border with Russia and became Europe’s largest gas supplier amid efforts to turn from Russian gas. Reuters
Germany Arrests More 'Reichsbürger' Suspects. German authorities said on Tuesday that they arrested three more individuals linked to the “'Reichsbürger” movement, a suspected right-wing terrorist network that does not believe in the current German state and instead asserts that the German Empire founded in 1871 still exists, along with its pre-World War Two borders. German police conducted a large-scale raid against the group in December, but Germany’s domestic intelligence says that the movement is expected to still be strong — there were around 23,000 suspected members in Germany in 2022. Deutsche Welle
Central and Eastern Europe
Detained Russian Hypersonic Scientist Accused of Transferring Secrets to China. A Russian scientist, who has been arrested along with two fellow hypersonic missile experts, has been accused of giving China classified material. Sources familiar with the charges against the scientists say Alexander Shiplyuk, the head of Siberia’s Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (ITAM), is suspected of giving the material to China at a science conference in 2017. Shiplyuk maintains that he shared information that was publicly available online, according to the sources. The two other hypersonics scientists arrested with Shiplyuk are also from ITAM — one of them was detained just last month, after which their colleagues signed an open letter asserting their innocence and saying Russian scientists cannot properly do their work if they are at risk of arrest for any engagement with scientists abroad. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that Russian authorities are aware of the appeal but are also working on the “very serious accusations” against the detained scientists. In response to questions about whether China has targeted Russian scientists to obtain sensitive research, the Chinese foreign ministry said that Sino-Russian relations are based on “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties.” The arrests come amid moves by Russia during the Ukraine war to increase penalties for treason and tighten control of state secrets. Reuters
Russia Extends Detention of WSJ Reporter Gershkovich. A Russian court extended the pretrial detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich until at least August 30. The US Embassy in Moscow condemned the move, saying that it “deeply concerned” about the extension and is reiterating demands for consular access to Gershkovich and his immediate release. Russian authorities arrested Gershkovich on March 29 for espionage, though they have not presented any evidence to back the accusation. The US has rejected the charge and asserts that Gershkovich is wrongfully detained. If convicted, he could be sentenced to up to 20 years at a Russian penal colony. Pretrial detention in Russian criminal cases can be extended for up to 12 months, if a court permits, so it is unclear how long Gershkovich will be held before his trial begins. Associated Press New York Times Wall Street Journal
Russian Jets Intercepted 2 US Air Force B-1 Bombers in the Baltic Sea. The Russian Ministry of Defense said Tuesday that a Russian Su-27 fighter intercepted two U.S. Air Force B-1 bombers over the Baltic Sea close to the Russian border. In a statement on Telegram, the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation said that the Russian fighter moved to prevent the bombers from violating Russian airspace and that the operation was conducted in “strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace." The Pentagon confirmed there was an “interaction” with Russian aircraft but that it was “safe and professional" and that there was nothing significant to comment on. CNN
Prigozhin Warns of Revolution in Russia if Moscow Doesn’t Change Course on War. Mercenary Prigozhin warns Russia could face revolution unless the elite gets serious about war. Yevgeny Priogohzin says that Russia could risk a revolution similar to 1917 if the ‘elites’ don’t get serious about the war. In an interview posted to Telegram, Prigohzin says he serves Putin and loves Russia, but that Moscow’s handling of the war in Ukraine to date, called a “Special Military Operation” has created a condition that could result in losing Russia. Prigozhin said he did not believe the so-called ‘optimistic view’ that the west would grow tired of supporting Ukraine and that China would broker a peace deal. Prigohzin says Russia should prepare for a long war and mobilize the economy and society accordingly. Reuters
Public Feud Among Russian War Leaders Watched Closely by Western Analysts. Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigohzin’s latest public tirade occurred on May 20 as he stood among the ruins of Bakhmut. Prigozhin, who announced the ‘capture’ of the embattled city, lashed out at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Senior Russian General Valeriy Gerasimov. Prigozhin accused the two of being responsible for “five times” as many deaths of Russian fighters as should have been necessary to capture Bakhmut. He says they will be held accountable. Western analysts are closely watching the public display of tension in the Russian leadership structure. Analysts say that Putin, long wary of political challengers, has often promoted rivalries among his subordinates, but the extent of this latest spat between Prigohzin and the generals could be a sign that the system is under unprecedented strain. A former speechwriter for Putin and Kremlin critic says that one conclusion could be that Putin has grown too weak to control all the players in the war, and is incapable of maintaining public unity. A western official says that its difficult to really know how at risk the Russian system is, calling it “hard but brittle”. Wall Street Journal
Kyiv Had Advance Warning of Raid into Belgorod. Russia’s Defense Ministry called the cross-border raid into Belgorod by anti-Putin militia groups a “terrorist act’ and says it will respond harshly to any future incursions. The attack on Belgorod, which lasted two days, was claimed by the Freedom of Russia Legion. The group, described as an anti-Putin Russian nationalist group is reportedly “aligned” with the Ukrainian military, though Kyiv says they were not involved in the operation. A Ukrainian official did tell CNN on Wednesday that Kyiv was given advance warning about the operation in Belgorod. Following the armed attack which Russia says they successfully defeated, the region was reportedly struck overnight by armed UAV’s, injuring nine people. BBC CNN
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Naval Ship in Vietnam on Goodwill Exchange. A Chinese naval training vessel is in Vietnam on a goodwill trip amid continued tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The ship, the Qi Jiguang, arrived in Da Nang on Tuesday and will remain docked for two days of goodwill exchanges, which will include Vietnamese government and military representatives, the public and Chinese diplomats and business staff. The visit comes after a recent standoff between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels near the disputed Spratly Islands, which both countries claim as their own. South China Morning Post
South Korea Cancels Satellite Launch. South Korea canceled a planned launch of its first commercial grade satellite on Wednesday due to a technical issue. The satellite was set to be launched on a South Korean rocket, which was also supposed to bring seven additional satellites into orbit. Officials say the issue came from a communication anomaly between the launch control computer and the launch pad control computer. If fixed in time, the launch may be rescheduled for as early as Thursday. The delayed launch comes amid concerns about North Korea’s work on developing a spy satellite. South Korea maintains the commercial-grade satellite does not have military purposes, but experts say its launch will help South Korean development of military surveillance satellites and stronger missile capabilities. Associated Press
Prominent Pro-Khan Journalist in Pakistan Missing After Arrest. Reporters Without Borders (RWB) and Amnesty International are calling for information about Imran Riaz, a prominent journalist and TV anchor who was among thousands of supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan who were arrested amid protests against Khan’s recent arrest. Pakistani authorities arrested Riaz on May 11 on suspicion of inciting violence. He was due to appear in a Lahore court on Monday, but authorities failed to present him and police officials said they are not aware of his whereabouts. The development has raised concerns that Riaz was harmed or may have even died in detention. RWB said he had been “abducted” by Pakistani military intelligence, and Amnesty said his arrest amounts to “an enforced disappearance.” Riaz’s case adds to concerns about the deterioration of freedom of speech and freedom of the press in Pakistan following Khan’s arrest. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle
Middle East and Northern Africa
Three Yazidi fighters Killed in Iraq by Turkish Army Drone. A Turkish drone strike in northern Iraq reportedly killed three Yazidi militants and injured three more from the Sinjar Resistance Units, which is associated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Security authorities in Iraq’s Kurdish region reported on the strike. Turkey and its Western allies regard the PKK as a terrorist group. Turkish forces regularly carry out operations in northern Iraq against the PKK and associated groups. France 24
Analysis - The Reasons Behind Zelensky’s Appearance at the Arab League Summit. Experts say that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s attendance at last week’s Arab League Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia offered Arab states as much to gain as Ukraine. Zelensky attended the summit as part of a diplomatic flurry aimed at getting more support to counter Russia’s invasion. Arab states have largely remained neutral in the Ukraine war, calling for a diplomatic settlement while still maintaining strong ties with Moscow. Experts say Arab states appeared to be impressed by Zelensky’s bold statements at the summit where he called out those deciding to “turn a blind eye” to the conflict and urged Arab nations to “reflect on their ties with Russia.” His mention of Ukrainian Muslims in Crime and description of the Ukraine war as a fight against “occupation” and “colonizers,” drawing connections to Arab states’ history with European imperialism, were also strong points. Despite Zelensky’s performance at the summit, experts say it is too early to see if Arab nations will shift policies to better support Kyiv. For Arab nations, experts say Zelensky’s inclusion offered deflection against Western criticism of continued ties with Russia and the inclusion of Syria at the summit. And for host Saudi Arabia, the summit added to Riyadh’s recent efforts to present itself as a leader of the Arab world and primary player in international affairs. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Tigray Protests Demand Withdrawal of Eritrean Troops. Peaceful protests were held in Ethiopia’s Tigray region on Tuesday to demand the withdrawal of Eritrean forces now that the Tigray war has ended. A truce to end the conflict was signed in November and has facilitated the disarming of Tigrayan forces and restoration of basic government in the region. However, the truce does not mention Eritrean troops, who fought on the side of the Ethiopian federal government and remain in Tigray border areas. Security forces from the Amhara region, which also fought against Tigray in the war, are also reportedly still in land disputed by Tigray. Al Jazeera
Cyber and Tech
Treasury Sanctions North Korean Groups Implicated in Cybercrime Operations. Four entities and an individual engaged in “malicious cyber activities” on behalf of North Korea were sanctioned Tuesday by the Treasury Department. The measures levied against the Pyongyang University of Automation and two other organizations controlled by the Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), North Korea’s leading intelligence agency, stem from their role in training and carrying out offensive cyber operations. The centers are known for linkages to the Lazarus Group, reputed to be a leader in cryptocurrency thefts on behalf of North Korea. Commenting on the actions, a Treasury Department official underscored the commitment of the U.S. and international partners in countering North Korea’s efforts to generate illegal revenue and its “efforts to steal money from financial institutions, virtual currency exchanges, companies, and private individuals around the world.” The Treasury sanctions also were applied to the Chinyong Information Technology Cooperation Company and a North Korean national for their participation in falsifying IT specialist identities in order to find employment abroad and fund North Korean weapons programs. The sanctions were coordinated with the South Korean government. CyberScoop
Biden Administration Announces Three New Actions To Guide AI Development. Three new moves aimed at ensuring proper risk management in the process of researching, developing, and developing artificial intelligence were announced today by the Biden administration. The updates to the government’s AI R&D roadmap serve as guidelines for responsible and effective AI development in algorithm usage, development, and deployment. Specifically, the three actions identify priority R&D areas in the AI sector for federal investments, invite public comment on how the federal government can best mitigate AI system risk, and set the stage for an analysis documenting benefits and risks to AI technologies in education. In addition to the new plans for increased national AI technology oversight, the Biden administration is hosting a conversation with American workers to hear concerns over automation and its broader economic impact. NextGov ExecutiveGov
Ukraine Agency Reports Cyberespionage Group Targeting Kyiv, Foreign Targets. Ukraine’s computer emergency response team Tuesday reported on a cyberespionage campaign targeting a government agency in Kyiv as well as entities abroad, including Israel, India, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. Ukraine’s response team identified the threat actor as UAC-0063 but its origins are not known. In April, the hacking group used a compromised email account of an embassy in Ukraine to send a malicious email to an unidentified Ukrainian government organization. The email contained three types of malware, including a keystroke logger, a backdoor executing code linked to a management server, and a device to find and exfiltrate files. Cybersecurity researchers continue efforts to trace several cyberespionage operations actively targeting Ukraine. The Record
Chinese Scientists Conduct ‘Catastrophic’ War-Game Strike on U.S. Carrier Group. A team of researchers led by the North University of China conducted war game simulations featuring hypersonic anti-ship missiles that led to the destruction of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group in the South China Sea. The research team performed the simulation on war gaming software used by the Chinese military. Over the course of 20 “intense battles” 24 hypersonic missiles were deployed, leading to a “catastrophic” outcome for the carrier group. The team said two types of hypersonic anti-ship missiles of different performance levels were launched in the simulation, some from as far away as the Gobi Desert. A paper describing the war game has been published in the May edition of the Journal of Test and Measurement Technology, a Chinese-language magazine. The war games suggested the US carrier group – previously regarded as unsinkable by conventional weapons – could be “destroyed with certainty” by a relatively small number of hypersonic strikes, they said. South China Morning Post
Critical Commercial, Surveillance Implications Stem from Record Meta Privacy Fine. The EU’s record-breaking fine against Meta for privacy violations and the accompanying order that the company end data transfers to the U.S. within five months has implications for the huge daily transfers of data between U.S. and European companies. It also adds to the pressure on U.S. and European authorities to finalize an agreement that would define the rules for transatlantic data exchanges and collection. Of particular concern are approaches by the U.S. and EU to digital surveillance programs, including European misgivings about U.S. provisions for warrantless searches against foreign citizens allowed by Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Last October President Biden issued an executive order placing limits on what data security agencies can access under the proposed EU–U.S. Data Privacy Framework. Biden’s executive order would create a Data Protection Review Court within the Justice Department to allow Europeans to challenge how American intelligence agencies use their data. Observers think it likely that the new agreement, which could come into force before Meta has to deal with the orders of Ireland’s Data Protection Commission, would be challenged in European courts. CyberScoop Wired
OpenAI Executives Call for International Body To Manage “Superintelligence” Tech. Three OpenAI executives, including CEO Sam Altman, issued a blog post today that outlined the company’s proposal for an international regulatory body to help manage “superintelligence,” that is, AI systems even more advanced than artificial general intelligence (AGI). The three corporate leaders acknowledged that AI development is moving at such a pace that existing frameworks are inadequate. That circumstance prompts the trio to urge “some degree of coordination among the leading development efforts” so that advances in superintelligence are done safely and in a way that ensures smooth integration into society. The proposal has clear thresholds in mind below which intrusive regulation is discouraged. Instead, the focus should be on systems that have “power beyond any technology yet created.” “We should be careful not to water down the focus on them by applying similar standards to technology far below this bar,” the blog post recommends. The OpenAI authors urge “strong public oversight” around the world in the governance and deployment decisions for “the most powerful systems.” In closing the blog post, the OpenAI team admits “we don't yet know how to design such a mechanism, but we plan to experiment with its development.” TechCrunch OpenAIBlog
Axios Examines Potential ‘Weaponization’ of AI-Enabled Medical Applications. Medical technology experts, including those from the World Health Organization (WHO), are increasingly concerned about the risks of unguided use of artificial intelligence tools in health care and medical treatment. Axios is out with a report framing the issue, citing a WHO appeal for safe and ethical standards for AI use in medicine. Chief among the organization’s concerns are that AI training data could be biased and generate misleading and that large language models used in AI chatbots could produce responses that appear to lay users to contain valid and useful information but are in fact incorrect or even harmful. The potential for AI benefits in health care are substantial and include the characteristics of speed, accuracy and cost savings. However, accidental or deliberate release of viruses are a leading concern. As more artificial organisms are developed, chances increase for release of antibiotic-resistant “superbugs.” Federal guidance and regulation of AI-related health technologies are outdated, with the FDA and CDC struggling to keep pace with the surge of AI-powered apps and devices. Axios concludes that renewed guidance from Federal agencies “would be a first line of defense.” Axios
U.S. Cyber Command Chief Outlines Strategic Priorities. Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander of U.S. Cyber Command, has released strategic priorities that aim to position Cyber Command to “own the domain.” Since the last command vision document in 2018, “strategic competition has fundamentally changed” warfare, Nakasone said in a statement. Building on expanded authorities granted by Congress, Nakasone noted that with the new fiscal year beginning in October, Cyber Command “has a tremendous amount of opportunities.” Nakasone said the first strategic priority is to “sharpen the force” through readiness and resilience, with an emphasis on how to prepare the force and “do that at a quicker pace.” As a second priority, he cited strengthening “warfighting advantages” ranging from circumstances short of actual hostilities — which Nakasone described as the “competition phase” — all the way through crisis and conflict. Cyber, Nakasone observed, has enabled adversaries to achieve goals in the competition phase as they have exploited opportunities to undermine and spread disinformation. Finally, Nakasone identified as a third priority the command’s use of its authorities to “build and sustain a decisive advantage.” Nakasone has identified six key challenges for the command, including “vulnerabilities and exploits,” which in an age of AI-enabled threats, heighten the need to identify gaps quickly and act to rectify them. DefenseScoop
Research Study Projects Billions in Losses from Quantum-Enabled Fedwire Attacks. A report out from the Hudson Institute suggests that the financial sector may be a key target for quantum-enabled intrusion technologies in the future. Researchers noted that the sector’s dependence on traditional digital security measures, including those of the Federal Reserve and its networks, “drastically increases the potential for a systemically disruptive event.” According to Hudson specialists, it is vital to continue efforts to develop post-quantum cryptography well in advance of actual quantum-enabled technologies targeting existing computer systems. Hudson’s analysis projects that a quantum computer hack on financial institutions could generate indirect GDP losses between $2 and 3.3 billion. The institute’s findings indicate that a quantum cyberattack on Fedwire would bring “catastrophic financial losses for the national economy.” Researcher included among “proactive measures” against the quantum threat “a Congressional deadline for the 12 member banks of the Federal Reserve to adopt post-quantum cybersecurity standards.” NextGov
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