Report for Wednesday, May 22, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

US assesses Russia launched space weapon in path of American satellite

Israeli forces raze parts of Jabalia in north Gaza, pummel Rafah with airstrikes

Ukraine and EU push to start membership talks in June

China testing large language model based on Xi Jinping Thought

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Ukraine Pleads for Green Light to Hit Russia with U.S. Weapons

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Ukraine is Facing Difficult Decisions Before November

THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

UN stops food aid in Rafah. Crowds swarming aid trucks disrupt aid distribution plans.  The United Nations said Tuesday that it could no longer distribute food aid in Rafah due to lack of supplies and insecurity.  The U.N. Agency helping Palestinian refugees reported that its distribution center and the U.N. World Food Program’s warehouses in Rafah “are now inaccessible due to ongoing military operations,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. “It’s an active combat zone. Bullets are flying, so not to sound glib, so they have no access to those areas.”  Crowds have stopped trucks trying to take aid from the U.S.-built pier to a distribution warehouse, Dujarric added. While 10 trucks were able to take goods from the pier to a storage area on Friday, only five of 16 trucks that departed the dock on Saturday made it to the warehouse. “Crowds had stopped the trucks at various points along the way,” he said. “There was what I think I would refer to as self-distribution. These trucks were traveling through areas where there’d been no aid. I think people feared that they would never see aid. They grabbed what they could.”  World Food Program spokeswoman Shaza Moghraby told Bloomberg News that trucks haven’t crossed from the floating dock to the warehouses since May 18.  Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said that 569 metric tons of aid were brought in via the pier, but that aid had not gotten to humanitarian aid groups on the ground.  He said the US and UN were discussing other routes trucks carrying aid could take to get to distribution points. Bloomberg  Associated Press

Biden administration doesn’t protest Israel’s military moves in Rafah.  A U.S. official said Tuesday that Israel has addressed many of President Joe Biden’s concerns about a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah.  The official stopped short of greenlighting Israel’s offensive in the city but said that in talks over the weekend involving White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Israeli officials changed their plans to meet White House concerns about military actions that could kill large numbers of Palestinian citizens in Rafah.  Some 400,000 people are believed to still be in Rafah and another 900,000 have fled to safer areas north of the city, according to COGAT, the Israeli military office in charge of Palestinian civilian affairs. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. remained “very concerned about any major military operation and the impact it would have on the remaining population, given the dense urban environment in Rafah.”  Associated Press Bloomberg

Israeli forces raze parts of Jabalia in north Gaza, pummel Rafah with airstrikes.  Israeli forces advanced deeper into the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza Tuesday, striking a hospital and destroying homes with tank and air bombardments, residents said. The Israeli military said it had dismantled "about 70 terror targets" throughout the Gaza Strip, including military compounds, weapon storage sites, missile launchers and observation posts.  Airstrikes killed three children in a house in Khan Younis and at least five people including three children in a home in Rafah, Gaza health officials said.  Reuters

Israel, under U.S. pressure, returns seized AP video gear.  The Associated Press’s live video of Gaza was back up in Israel early Wednesday after the Israeli government returned a camera and broadcasting equipment it seized Tuesday.  The government accused the AP of violating a new media law by providing images to the satellite channel Al Jazeera, then seized the AP equipment in southern Israel. Israeli officials used the new law on May 5 to shutter Al Jazeera within Israel. The Biden administration, journalism organizations and an Israeli opposition leader condemned the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and pressured it to reverse the decision.  Associated Press Washington Post Forbes Reuters

Israel urges ‘civilized’ nations to oppose ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant.  Israel on Tuesday urged "nations of the civilized world" to oppose the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor's request for arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and to declare they would ignore the warrants.  Gallant called the request for warrants a "disgraceful" bid to interfere in Israel's war.  Reuters Associated Press

Biden administration signals support to sanction ICC.   Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested he will work with lawmakers on potential sanctions against the International Criminal Court, while its chief prosecutor is asking for arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials.  Blinken told a congressional hearing he was "committed" to taking action against the "profoundly wrong-headed decision."  The Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, sponsored by Texas Republican Chip Roy, would sanction ICC officials involved with the case by blocking their entry to the US, revoking any US visas they hold, and prohibiting them from any property transactions within the U.S., unless the court ceases its cases against "protected persons of the United States and its allies". At least 37 lawmakers in the Republican-led House are now co-sponsoring the legislation.   BBC Washington Post Wall Street Journal Washington Post Reuters

U.S. says Israeli-Saudi relations require Gaza ‘quiet’, talks on Palestinian statehood.   The Israeli government can’t proceed to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia because the Saudis insist on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday. “The Saudis have been very clear that [normalization] would require calm in Gaza, and it would require a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,” Blinken said. “It may well be... that at this moment, Israel is not able or willing to proceed down that pathway,” he explained.Reuters Jerusalem Post

Ireland, Spain, Norway to recognize Palestine state.  Ireland, Spain, and Norway announced they will officially recognize Palestine as a state starting next week. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris compared Palestine's right to sovereignty to Ireland's own historical struggle for independence. He also emphasized that Ireland supports renewed diplomacy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and that recognizing a Palestinian state does not endorse Hamas.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez likewise clarified that the recognition of Palestine is not meant to oppose Israel or support Hamas, but to advance peace efforts. “The time has come to move from words to action,” he said.  In response, Israel recalled its ambassadors from Ireland and Norway immediately. Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the move, arguing it rewards terrorism.  Reuters The Guardian Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian gunners finally get shells to stop Russians near Kharkiv.  Ukrainian gunners near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region are finally receiving artillery shells to combat Russian forces, following a prolonged shortage due to delayed U.S. aid. The $61 billion package approved by Congress has alleviated the shortages, enabling units like Ukraine’s 92nd Separate Assault Brigade to intensify its defense against Moscow’s incursion. The fighting near Vovchansk is fiercer than previous battles in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces control 60% of Vovchansk and are fighting house-to-house to repel Russian advances. Commanders stress the importance of holding the line. "If we can demonstrate now that we are able in such an extreme situation to stop the enemy's big-scale assault on Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, the enemy will not dare to think of attacking Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, or Poltava region,” said the commander of the brigade's artillery unit.  Reuters

EU reaches a deal on using profits from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.  The European Union has agreed to use profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine militarily and aid in reconstruction. The EU holds approximately 210 billion euros ($225 billion) in Russian central bank assets, mainly frozen in Belgium. The interest on these assets amounts to around 3 billion euros annually.  Ninety percent of these funds will go to the European Peace Facility for arms reimbursement, while 10% will support Ukraine's defense industry and reconstruction. The first funds may be available by July.  Associated Press

Germany reportedly to increase Ukraine military aid by 3.8 billion euros this year. Germany plans to increase its military aid to Ukraine by 3.8 billion euros ($4.13 billion) this year, adding to the already allocated 7.1 billion euros for weapons and ammunition, sources and publication Bills say.  Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has requested the additional funds, which have received initial support from Finance Minister Christian Lindner, pending parliamentary approval in June. Pistorius has also proposed 15 billion euros for Ukraine's military aid in Germany's 2025 budget.  Reuters

Ukraine ‘urgently’ needs more air defenses, says German foreign minister.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday emphasized the urgent need for more air defense systems in Ukraine to counter Russian missile and drone attacks. “Russian rocket terror, constant air alerts, permanent power outages, hardly any water: The situation in Ukraine has once again escalated dramatically with the massive Russian air strikes on the civilian infrastructure and the brutal Russian offensive in the Kharkiv area,” Baerbock said in a press statement during her trip to Kyiv.  Along with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, she launched a global initiative to bolster Ukraine's aerial defenses, pledging an additional €1 billion. Baerbock said, “Our support is rooted in the deep belief that Ukraine will win this war. Putin speculates that we will eventually run out of air, but we have staying power. Germany, together with many other countries from all parts of the world, stands firmly on Ukraine's side.”  Politico Associated Press

Ukraine and EU push to start membership talks in June. Officials in Brussels are pushing to initiate formal negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the E.U. as early as next month. Diplomats from the E.U. and Kyiv are actively engaged in behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade the Hungarian government to give its approval for opening membership talks with Ukraine, as unanimous approval is required. Last December, E.U. leaders expressed interest in Ukraine and Moldova joining the bloc, potentially expanding its membership to 29 countries, but the formal legal procedure has been stalled due to opposition from Hungary.  Politico

Transcript of Volodymyr Zelensky’s interview with The New York Times. In a 50-minute interview with journalists from the New York Times, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for long-range artillery and more air defense systems, such as the Patriot, to counter Russian attacks. He criticized the restrictions on using American-made weapons inside Russia, arguing that striking Russian positions is essential for Ukraine's defense. Zelensky highlighted the challenges faced by Ukraine due to constant Russian bombardments and troop movements along the border. He called on allies from NATO countries to shoot down Russian missiles in Ukrainian territory “and give us the weapons to use against Russian forces on the borders.” He also called for at least 120 F-16 jets.  Zelensky also highlighted the need to strengthen the security of food exports through Ukraine’s ports and to end Russia’s military occupation of Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant.  Zelensky said that Ukrainian workers at the Zaporizhzhia power plant and their children are hostages. “The children of people working at this station have been taken to Russia.” New York Times

Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid touch Kyiv with blackouts ahead of peak demand. Sustained Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid have led to nationwide rolling blackouts, even in Kyiv. With half of the energy system damaged and inadequate air defenses, the situation could worsen during peak demand in late summer and winter. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko stressed the urgent need for more air defense systems. “With each attack, we lose additional power generation, so it just goes minus, minus, minus,” Halushchenko said Tuesday while standing outside a coal-fired plant in central Ukraine that was destroyed in an April 11 attack. Any efforts to repair the plant would be futile until the military can defend it from another attack. “Should we repair (power stations) just for them (Russians) to renew strikes while we are unable to defend ourselves?” the minister asked. Associated Press

Read Ukraine’s Energy Minister: We are Moving Towards a Nuclear Accident in The Cipher Brief

How Russia’s ‘covert mobilization’ finds manpower for the war in Ukraine. Russia continues to use various coercion tactics to recruit military personnel for the war in Ukraine, ensuring a steady flow of new soldiers. Despite public backlash from the 2022 "partial" mobilization, recruitment efforts persist through high salaries, social benefits, and targeting disadvantaged individuals. Men are often pressured or misled into enlisting. The Defense Ministry has focused on convicts, recent citizens, and conscripts, with many recruits facing violence and unmet promises of rewards. This strategy reduces the need for another widespread mobilization despite a decreasing pool of willing volunteers. Moscow Times

Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, returning from NATO exercises, highlighted concerns over rising sabotage, electronic warfare, and spying by Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland are bolstering defenses against what Kallas calls a "shadow war" by Russia.  “What I would like to see is the recognition that these are not isolated events,” Kallas told the Associated Press. “Second, that we share information about this amongst ourselves. Third, make it as public as we can.” Despite efforts to counter these activities, challenges persist, including reluctance by some nations to act decisively against Russia due to potential impacts on business interests. Associated Press

The Americas

U.S. assesses Russia launched space weapon in path of American satellite. U.S. Space Command said that Russia launched a satellite last week, COSMOS 2576, which U.S. intelligence officials believe to be a counter space weapon capable of inspecting and potentially attacking other satellites in low-Earth orbit. COSMOS 2576, resembling previous Russian counter space payloads from 2019 and 2022, is currently trailing a U.S. government spy satellite, USA 314, in the same orbital ring, raising concerns about potential close encounters and hostile actions. The launch of COSMOS 2576 comes amidst allegations that Russia is developing a space-based nuclear weapon capable of destroying entire networks of satellites.  Reuters 

Biden administration faces pressure on US weapons restrictions in Russia.  As the conflict continues, Ukraine has stepped up its requests to the Biden administration for the removal of restrictions on the use of U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia. Ukrainian parliament member Oleksandra Ustinova highlighted the tactical disadvantage caused by these restrictions, stating that Russian forces exploit them by positioning vital equipment just across the border. Despite bipartisan support from U.S. lawmakers who recently urged Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to allow Ukraine to target Russian territory strategically, Austin confirmed that the policy remains unchanged, emphasizing the focus on close-range engagements within Ukraine. This stance is supported by Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder, who reiterated the U.S.'s commitment to provide Ukraine with defensive capabilities solely within its own borders, amidst ongoing discussions on the matter.  Voice of America

Read Ukraine Pleas for Green Light to Hit Russia with U.S. Weapons in The Cipher Brief.

Democratic lawmakers back bill to bar foreign government payments to president. Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation Tuesday to  prevent the president and other top officials from accepting payments from foreign governments during their terms of office.  The proposal led by Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, would enforce the Constitution’s ban on emoluments, which prohibits the president from accepting foreign gifts and money without Congress’ permission. Democrats say the bill is aimed at Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose hotels and properties have received foreign government officials.  The bill  has no chance of passing the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives.  Reuters Associated Press The Hill 

US-Saudi defense deal with civil nuclear component nears completion, official says.  The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have reached a "near final set of arrangements" for a defense pact that includes a civil nuclear component but obstacles remain for a broader regional deal that would normalize relations between Israel and Riyadh, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday.  The official said the bilateral deal was "more or less complete," but cautioned that certain elements, including a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood and steps on stabilizing war-torn Gaza, still needed to be completed.   Reuters

Haiti’s gangs grow stronger as Kenyan-led force prepares to deploy. As a Kenyan-led multinational force prepares to deploy to Haiti, local gangs continue to control vital infrastructure and present a significant threat. These gangs, once financially dependent on Haiti’s elite, have gained autonomy and powerful weaponry. Key figures, like Jimmy Chérizier and Dimitri Hérard, are linked to drug trafficking and the assassination. The gangs’ influence complicates the mission of the 2,500 incoming police officers and the transitional council's efforts to stabilize the country. Haiti's national police force will take charge of the much-awaited U.N.-backed security mission set to launch by the end of this month, Haiti's transition council said on Tuesday.  New York Times New York Times Reuters

The U.S. was transferring Guantánamo prisoners. The Hamas attack halted those plans.  The Biden administration halted a secret mission to transfer around a dozen cleared detainees from Guantánamo Bay to Oman in October due to congressional concerns about Middle East instability following the Hamas attack on Israel. The detainees, primarily from Yemen, had been prepared for transfer, but the mission was aborted at the last moment. The U.S. continues to seek countries willing to resettle these detainees, with Oman being a key partner. This effort is part of the administration’s broader goal to reduce the Guantánamo prison population, which has dropped to 30 detainees.  New York Times New York Times

Colombia weighing whether to suspend EMC ceasefire after bombings: defense minister. Colombian President Gustavo Petro is considering the complete suspension of a ceasefire agreement with the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) rebel group after two bombings attributed to the EMC in the province of Cauca on Monday.  One of the attacks, in the town of Morales, resulted in four deaths, including two police officers. Defense Minister Ivan Velasquez mentioned that while the decision is under review, President Petro will make the final call on the ceasefire's status. The EMC, consisting of 3,500 members, did not accept the 2016 peace deal that ended conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).  The group has established a quasi-state in southern Colombia, adding complexity to the peace efforts.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Philippines navy officer denies making deal with China on South China Sea.  Philippine Navy Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos denied claims that he entered into any agreement with China regarding the South China Sea territorial disputes. China threatened to release audio of a purported phone call between Carlos and a Chinese diplomat about an agreement on a “new model” for handling regional maritime disputes.  Carlos said he spoke with a Chinese embassy military attache in early January about ways to reduce tensions during resupply missions to Filipino troops at the Second Thomas Shoal.   He maintained that he “did not enter into any secret deals” and that the Chinese official recorded their conversation without consent.  He added that the Chinese claim of a secret deal is a “false narrative.”  Beijing dismissed his denial, saying it ”precisely indicates” an agreement was made.  Bloomberg 

Read South China Sea Flareups Raise Fears of Wider Conflict in The Cipher Brief

China sanctions former Congressman Gallagher after Taiwan trip. China has sanctioned former U.S. lawmaker Mike Gallagher, banning him from entering the country and freezing his assets within China, over his words and actions that "interfered in China's internal affairs" regarding Taiwan. During a visit to Taiwan in February, Gallagher met with then-President Tsai Ing-wen and current President Lai Ching-te, expressing bipartisan support for the island and referring to Tsai as "a leader within the free world.”  South China Morning Post NBC News Reuters Associated Press 

"Extremely inappropriate:" Japan lodges complaint about Chinese ambassador's comment on Taiwan. Japan on Wednesday protested against comments made by Chinese Ambassador Wu Jianghao regarding Taiwan. Wu warned that Japanese involvement in supporting Taiwan's independence would lead to negative consequences for Tokyo. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called these remarks "extremely inappropriate" and emphasized Japan's stance that any issues concerning Taiwan should be resolved peacefully through dialogue.  Reuters

Chinese, Japanese officials to meet for talks on resuming ruling party talks after 6-year hiatus. Senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao is scheduled to visit Tokyo this month to discuss resuming regular consultative talks between the governing parties of China and Japan, meetings which have been on hold since 2018. Liu, who manages ties with foreign political parties, is set to meet with the Liberal Democratic Party's Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and Komeito's chief representative Natsuo Yamaguchi on May 29. The visit comes amid strained relations due to issues such as Beijing’s contentious maritime activities and Japan's release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant. Liu's visit follows a planned trilateral summit between China, Japan, and South Korea.  Reuters Japan Times

Putin and Xi to meet again in Kazakhstan in July, Lavrov says. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazakhstan in July. This anticipated meeting would mark the second meeting between the two leaders in approximately two months, following Xi's hosting of Putin during a state visit to China.  South China Morning Post 

Solomon Islands tells Australia it will review security. Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles stated that Solomon Islands' newly elected Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele informed him the Pacific Island nation is conducting a security review that will determine the future of security cooperation between the two countries. Australia, the Solomon Islands' biggest aid donor, provided security support for the country's national elections in April, while China also maintains a policing presence.  During his one-day visit to Honiara, Marles spoke on the importance of the relationship with the Solomon Islands for Australia, and the opportunity presented by the new government for a renewed partnership, with Australia providing additional budget support of $4.7 million and engaging in further discussions.  Reuters

ANALYSIS: China Is Winning the Minerals War. Despite Western efforts to reduce China's dominance in critical minerals essential for defense and green technologies, Chinese companies are solidifying their grip by expanding operations, boosting supply, and driving down prices, rendering their challengers uncompetitive. As discussed by Morgan Bazilian from the Colorado School of Mines, China continues to make "massive investments in all aspects of the critical-minerals supply chain," compounding its existing advantage. The example of nickel, a crucial component for EV batteries, illustrates China's strategy, with Chinese processing plants in Indonesia rapidly increasing output from new and expanded facilities, disrupting the market dynamics. China's aggressive pursuit of dominance in critical minerals, coupled with its ability to leverage economies of scale and make substantial investments, poses a significant challenge for Western nations aiming to reduce their reliance on Chinese critical minerals.  Wall Street Journal 

Vietnam appoints top policeman as country's new president. On Wednesday, Vietnam's parliament elected police minister To Lam as state president, which positions him for a future bid for the Communist Party's top job. This election follows heightened political turbulence, with three top leaders ousted over alleged wrongdoings. Lam is a key figure in an anti-corruption campaign.  “With To Lam’s ascent to the presidency, Vietnam is now a literal police state,” said Ben Swanton of The 88 Project, which advocates for freedom of expression in Vietnam. Reuters Associated Press

New Zealand proposes 6.6% cut in defense spending amid personnel and equipment woes. New Zealand's conservative government plans to cut military spending by 6.6% despite ambitions for a greater regional role. The proposed defense budget will decrease to $3 billion for the year ending June 2025, down from $5.3 billion this year. This reduction contrasts with increased defense spending by partners like Australia and Japan in response to China's military growth. The cuts may hinder New Zealand's chances of joining the AUKUS defense pact. Significant investment is required to address decades of underinvestment and bolster the military's capabilities. Reuters

Europe

Moldova, E.U. sign security and defense partnership. Moldova has signed a security and defense partnership with the European Union, as announced by E.U. Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday. Under the leadership of its pro-European President Maia Sandu, Moldova, which sits between Ukraine and Romania, hopes to join the E.U. by 2030 and has strongly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Borrell said that this partnership "will enhance the country's resilience" and allow joint efforts to "address common security challenges," explore new areas of cooperation, and make their engagement more effective.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

British police investigating unexplained death of man charged with spying for China.  British police are investigating the unexplained death of a man charged earlier this month with assisting Hong Kong's foreign intelligence service.  Matthew Trickett, 37. Was pronounced dead at the scene in Maidenhead, southern England.  Trickett, a former Royal Marine with a private security firm, was one of three men granted bail at a May 13 court hearing after being charged with two offenses under Britain's National Security Act.   Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg  

Russia sentences hypersonics expert for treason. Russian physicist Anatoly Maslov, aged 77, was convicted of treason and sentenced to 14 years in a penal colony on Tuesday, in one of several cases involving experts working on the science behind Russia's development of hypersonic missiles. Maslov, a specialist in hypersonics from a Siberian institute, stood trial in a closed courtroom in St. Petersburg and maintained his innocence.  Two other scientists from the same institute, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev, have been awaiting trial on similar treason charges since 2022.  Reuters 

Putin starts tactical nuke drills near Ukraine. Russia announced on Tuesday that its Southern Military District troops have begun tactical nuclear weapons exercises near Ukraine.  The drills reportedly involve the practice of equipping Iskander missile systems and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles with specialized warheads.  Politico Reuters

Russia decides to redraw maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea unilaterally. Russian authorities have unilaterally decided to change maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea, declaring new internal waters and adjusting geographical coordinates.  According to a decree prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry, Russia intends to appropriate inland sea waters in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland and near Baltiysk and Zelenodradsk in Kaliningrad Oblast, the Moscow Timesreports. The Finnish and Lithuanian foreign ministries have not commented yet. The decision coincides with Russian military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. Euromaidan Press The Kyiv Independent

Spain withdraws Argentina envoy after Milei remarks. Spain has permanently recalled its ambassador to Argentina after Argentine President Javier Milei labeled Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s wife as “corrupt” during a visit to Madrid. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares condemned Milei’s remarks as a direct attack on Spain. Milei refused to apologize and criticized the Spanish government. The diplomatic row could affect economic ties since Spanish businesses are major investors in Argentina. Financial Times Reuters Associated Press

Middle East

Yemen’s Houthis claim to down U.S. drone.  Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed to shoot down another American drone on Tuesday.  A Houthi military spokesman alleged the drone downed while “carrying out hostile missions” over Yemen’s southern province of Bayda by a locally made surface-to-air missile.  U.S. Central Command acknowledged the reports but did not comment further.  The Houthis claimed last Friday that they downed a drone over Yemen’s province of Marib.  The claim came after footage circulated online of what appeared to be the wreckage of an MQ-9 Reaper.  Associated Press

Iran could turn volatile after president’s death.  Western officials anticipate increased volatility with Iran as the country prepares to choose a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash over the weekend. But they said they don’t expect Tehran to make major foreign-policy shifts.  Iran is likely to stay on its current course, deepening ties with China and Russia, supporting Hamas and other regional proxies and pursuing its nuclear program, officials in Washington and European capitals said. Iran is now in five days of mourning for Raisi, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei presiding over his funeral.  Wall Street Journal Reuters Financial Times Associated Press

Read Iran Power Struggle Looms After President’s Death and What the Death of Iran’s President Could Mean for Tehran and the Region exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Africa

As U.S. influence in Africa wanes, Kenya bucks the trend. Kenyan President William Ruto's visit to Washington on Wednesday underscores the growing ties between Kenya and the U.S., even as American influence wanes elsewhere in Africa due to coups, wars, and rival powers like Russia and China. The strategic role of the East African nation includes brokering peace talks, contributing to international peacekeeping, and supporting U.S. policies on global issues. Despite warm U.S. relations, Ruto faces criticism at home for inflation, unpopular taxes, and government corruption. His administration's efforts to stabilize the economy are offset by public discontent and recent humanitarian crises, such as severe floods following a prolonged drought. He called on the U.S. to be more active in Africa. “America needs to show up,” he said. “We live in a region where democracy is under threat. … Being a democracy, being a country that believes in the rule of law, must count for something. Democracy must deliver.”  Washington Post 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

China testing large language model based on Xi Jinping Thought. China's top internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has unveiled a large language model (LLM) based on Chinese President Xi Jinping's political philosophy, "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era," touting it as a "secure and reliable" closed AI system. Developed by the China Cyberspace Research Institute under the administration, this LLM utilizes Xi's political philosophy, enshrined in China's constitution in 2018, along with other cyberspace themes aligned with the official government narrative, as its core content. The move reflects China's efforts to integrate Xi's political ideology, which encompasses instructions on all aspects of political, social, and economic life, into advanced technologies like large language models, potentially shaping the narratives and outputs generated by such AI systems.  South China Morning Post 

UK to propose mandatory reporting for ransomware attacks, licesning regime for payments.  U.K. officials are set to propose a significant overhaul of the country's response to ransomware attacks, mandating all victims to report such incidents to the government and subsequently seek a license before making any ransom payments.  The proposals, which will be included in a public consultation next month, also include a complete ban on ransom payments for organizations involved in critical national infrastructure, aiming to remove the incentive for hackers to target and disrupt these vital services. British authorities believe the mandatory reporting requirement would shed light on the true scale of the ransomware problem, which remains largely unknown, as last year the National Cyber Security Centre and the Information Commissioner's Office expressed concerns about victims keeping incidents undisclosed.  The Record

U.S. government urges federal contractors to beef up encryption. Companies collaborating with the U.S. government may soon face new requirements to safeguard their data and technology against potential attacks by quantum computers, with the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) set to establish encryption algorithm standards in July. This move by NIST, a part of the Department of Commerce, aims to provide an internationally recognized benchmark for protecting against evolving cybersecurity threats, specifically those posed by the advent of quantum computing. According to White House Deputy National Security Adviser Anne Neuberger, the rollout of these standards will initiate "the transition to the next generation of cryptography," crucial for securing not only national security secrets but also online transactions, payments, and the broader internet infrastructure from the risk of quantum-enabled decryption.  Bloomberg

ASML, TSMC reportedly have ways to disable machines if China invades Taiwan.  ASML Holding NV and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. possess the capability to remotely disable their most advanced chipmaking machines in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, according to individuals familiar with the matter. Amid concerns expressed privately by U.S. officials to their Dutch and Taiwanese counterparts about the risks posed by potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan, a major global semiconductor hub, ASML has reassured the Dutch government about its ability to remotely shut down these machines during invasion scenarios.  The remote disabling mechanism applies specifically to ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, which employ high-frequency light waves to produce cutting-edge microchips with AI and military applications, for which TSMC is the largest client.  Bloomberg

Microsoft promotes new AI software-making tools. Microsoft is increasing its efforts to encourage programmers to integrate AI capabilities into Windows software, unveiling new tools and APIs that facilitate the incorporation of Microsoft's AI technology into applications.  Microsoft’s generative AI tool, Github Copilot, which is already being used by 1.8 million developers, and Copilot AI are the latest updates in Microsoft’s AI offerings.  Rivals such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple are also introducing similar AI-powered tools and services to cater to developers and leverage the potential of generative AI across various software platforms.   Reuters

E.U. endorse deal to set benchmarks for AI use.  The E.U.’s landmark AI Act, a comprehensive set of rules designed to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in business and everyday life, will enter into force next month after receiving endorsement from E.U. countries, setting a potential global benchmark for AI governance. Unlike the U.S.’ voluntary compliance approach and China's focus on maintaining social stability and state control over AI, the E.U.'s AI Act imposes strict transparency obligations on high-risk AI systems, while imposing lighter requirements on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini. The act also restricts governments' use of real-time biometric surveillance in public spaces, except in cases of serious crimes, prevention of terrorist attacks, and searches for individuals suspected of the most serious offenses, reflecting growing global concerns about the potential misuse of AI in contributing to misinformation, fake news, and copyright infringement.  Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Leighton Durham, and Katharine Campbell, contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief