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Wednesday, May 17, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

CIA Publishes Video to Recruit Russian Spies. The CIA has launched a social media campaign to recruit Russians who are disaffected with life in Russia and Moscow’s war in Ukraine.  The campaign includes a video that provides instructions on how to contact the CIA anonymously and securely.  CIA officials say the project aims to take advantage of the “unprecedented” opportunity created by the Ukraine war to recruit Russian spies.  The text in the brief video, which is narrated by a male voice, encourages anyone with intel on the Russian military, economy, government, or leadership to contact the CIA, saying "perhaps the people around you don't want to hear the truth. We want to." The video was posted to the app Telegram and the CIA’s YouTube page. They add that the campaign is targeted at Russian individuals with sensitive information that will be useful to the US and is not meant to incite unrest and dissent among the broader Russian population.  On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the news by saying that Russian intelligence agencies are monitoring Western spy activities amid the new recruiting drive by the CIA. Peskov added that he had not seen the contents of the video.  The consequences for Russians who consider acting on the request by the CIA are severe. In April, Russia’s parliament voted in favor of raising the sentence for state treason from 20 years in prison, to life.   Al Jazeera CNN Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal

Former National Security Officials Who Signed ‘The Letter’ Under Scrutiny in Congressional Inquiry.  Former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Lt. General (Ret) James R. Clapper is the sixth former intelligence official to be questioned in a republican-led investigation into a letter referencing the contents of a laptop owned by the son of President Joe Biden. The letter, signed by 51 former intelligence officials, offered a view that contents found on Hunter Biden’s laptop seemed to be consistent with Russian disinformation tactics. No evidence has emerged publicly to support the claim of Russian disinformation and some republicans believe the letter was an attempt to influence the 2020 presidential election. Former Deputy Director of the CIA Michael Morrell said in a statement submitted to Congress, that he helped organize the letter because at the time, he “honestly believed” that the emergence of the Biden emails was the result of a Russian attempt to interfere in the 2020 election. Republicans who are investigating the letter say they have evidence that the letter was part of a Biden campaign operation that included Secretary of State Antony Blinken and “may'' have included a CIA employee who helped to solicit at least one signature according to a report released last week by the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees. Democrats have pointed out that the 51 signers were private citizens who wanted Joe Biden to win the election, and who stated that they possessed no evidence of Russian involvement with the laptop.  Democrats also say that President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudolph W. Giuliani was shopping the contents of the laptop to various news outlets amid intelligence warnings that Russia was seeking to boost President Trump’s campaign.  New York Times

Secret Service Probing Break-in at Home of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.  The US Secret Service has launched investigations into how an intruder broke into the Washington DC home of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.  In late April, a possibly intoxicated individual entered the home early in the morning and encountered Sullivan himself before leaving undetected, despite 24-hour Secret Service protection and surveillance. No one was harmed in the incident. CNN

Justice Department Announces Criminal Cases as Part of New Technology ‘Strike Force.’   The US Justice Department (DOJ) announced five new criminal cases on Tuesday.  The cases represent the first enforcement action under the department's new Disruptive Technology Strike Force, a division that seeks to counter efforts by “hostile nation states” to illegally acquire US technology.  In one of the cases, US prosecutors say that a former Apple employee, who has been charged in California, allegedly stole thousands of documents that contained source code for Apple’s autonomous driving technology and that the employee now works for a China based autonomous vehicle company.  In total four arrests have been made according to the Justice Department who says that some defendants remain at large.  Assistant Attorney General Matt Olsen says the action demonstrates the DOJ’s commitment to preventing sensitive US technology from falling into the hands of Russia, China and Iran.  CNN CyberScoop Reuters South China Morning Post 

DHS Orders Review of Personnel with Access to Classified Info Following Pentagon Leak.  According to a May 15th memo, the agencies of the Department of Homeland Security are conducting a review into which individuals and personnel are able to access clandestine information and classified documents in the aftermath of the Pentagon leaks. The publishers of the memo seek to avoid circulating sensitive intel to those who do not necessarily require it in order to work. By the end of June, agencies must “review and validate” the number of people who need access to such information. Personnel includes not only employees but contractors, task forces officers, and private, local, tribal, and state sector partners. Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is reportedly leading the effort to reevaluate clearance levels. CNN

Biden Cuts Short Asia Trip Amidst Debt Ceiling Negotiations. President Joe Biden cut short his trip to Asia as the risk of an economic nightmare looms amid continued disagreement between the White House and Congress on the debt ceiling.  Biden will now only attend the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Japan and has canceled what would have been an historic trip to Papua New Guinea as well as plans to attend a Quad meeting in Australia.  Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy have been engaged in several weeks of talks on the debt ceiling and have been reportedly edging closer to a deal.  Following talks on Tuesday, Speaker McCarthy told reporters they are still in disagreement on a deal that will lift the debt ceiling, but he believes they will be able to reach a deal by the end of the week.  Associated Press Reuters

Western Europe

UK, Netherlands Agree to Supply Ukraine with Fighter Jets.  The UK and Netherlands have agreed to form an “international coalition” to send F16 fighter jets to Ukraine.  A spokesperson for Downing Street announced the move after the Council of Europe Summit in Iceland, saying that the UK and Netherlands will support “everything from training to procuring F16 jets.”  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long requested warplanes from Western allies and had raised the need for a “fighter jet coalition” during his meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the UK on Monday.  Zelensky reacted to the UK-Netherlands pledge by saying it is a “good start to the coalition.”  While experts have agreed that Western fighter jets would significantly boost Ukraine’s current fleet of Soviet-era warplanes and give it an edge over Russian forces, NATO countries did not pledge the warplanes earlier for fear of escalation with Russia, though most members of the alliance have maintained openness to train Ukrainian fighter pilots.  Al Jazeera CNN The Guardian

EU Nations Report No Chinese Spy Balloons.  EU Transport Commissioner Adina Vălean responded to inquiries about Chinese spy balloons in Europe on Tuesday by saying that no member of the bloc has reported sightings of such balloons.  She added that military air surveillance does not fall under “EU competence” and should be handled by the “national competence of each individual member state.”   Vălean’s comments come after the US downed a Chinese surveillance balloon in February, an incident which significantly escalated tensions between Beijing and Washington.  Politico

Prince Harry Seeks Judicial Review of Decision Barring Purchase of Police Protection. British government lawyers told a court on Tuesday that Prince Harry should not be permitted to pay for police protection, as no rich individuals should be allowed to purchase police officers and specially trained forces as private bodyguards. Harry was stripped of police protection after he and his wife gave up their roles in the royal family and moved to California. He has now requested a review of the decision by the Executive Committee for the Protection of Royalty and Public Figures not to allow him to pay for police security. He claims an event as high-profile as the coronation required a more secure level of protection. Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Former U.S. Army Special Forces Soldier Killed in Bakhmut.  Retired Army Special Forces Staff Sergeant Nicholas Maimer was reportedly killed by Russian artillery fire in the Easter Ukrainian city of Bakhmut this week.  Friends of Maimer, including the founder of the non-profit he was working with in Ukraine, AFGFree, confirmed that he was killed when the building he was in was hit by Russian artillery and collapsed.  The confirmation of Maimer’s death came after the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed to have recovered the body of an American killed in Bakhmut.  In a video posted to the Wagner Telegram group, Prigozhin inspects a body which he claims had US identification documents on it and pledges to return it to the US “in a coffin” and “with respect.”  Media outlets have not confirmed the identity of the body in the video, though Maimer’s uncle told an Idaho news outlet that it is the body of Maimer.  Maimer served for a total of 20 years in the Army before retiring in 2018.  He arrived in Ukraine in spring of 2022 and worked with AFGFree, a volunteer group of US Special Forces veterans and individuals supporting evacuation and humanitarian efforts in Ukraine.  CNN

US Patriot System in Ukraine Potentially Damaged by Russian Missile Barrage.  The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Tuesday that a Kinzhal hypersonic missile launched at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv hit one of two US-made Patriot missile defense systems currently in Ukraine.  The US says that they are assessing the situation and that the system was likely damaged but not destroyed. Ukrainian officials, who claim to have intercepted all six Kinzhal missiles that Russia fired in its latest attack, deny that the Patriot system was destroyed and say the Russian claims are propaganda.  CNN Kyiv Independent Wall Street Journal  Reuters

Ukraine is Using Long-Range “Storm Shadow” Missiles on Russian Targets. Two US officials and another western official told CNN that Ukrainian forces have begun using the long-range “Storm Shadow” missiles that the UK recently provided on Russian targets. The missiles were delivered last week by the UK, giving Ukraine long-range strike capability.  Ukraine reportedly used the Storm Shadows in strikes on Russian-occupied areas in the Luhansk region on Monday.  The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has declined to comment on the matter.  CNN

Ukraine Supreme Court Chief Arrested in Anti-Graft Probe.  Ukrainian authorities detained the head of Ukraine’s Supreme Court as part of a major anti-corruption probe.  Supreme Court President Vsevolod Kniaziev is suspected of accepting $2.7 million in bribes to make rulings in favor of the interests of Ukrainian iron oligarch Kostyantyn Zhevago, who is currently detained in France on suspicion of money laundering and embezzlement.  Ukrainian anti-graft officials said this is the “biggest-ever” in a series of cases aimed at rooting out corruption as part of efforts to ensure continued Western military support and eventual membership in the EU and NATO.  Al Jazeera Financial Times Politico The Guardian

Ukrainian Military Upgrades Commercial Drones to Assault Russian Forces.  The Ukrainian military has been remodifying commercial four-rotor drones sold for $300 to carry explosive material to assault Russian tanks and trenches.  According to a Ukrainian soldier and former IT programmer, his squad, the 35th Marine Brigade, has successfully used the modified drones many times in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The “Kamikaze” drones themselves are easy to obtain, fast, and efficient, and reportedly insusceptible to Russian jamming programs or radio electronic interference. Experts say that these weapons may be utilized in the coming counteroffensive. Ukrainian and Russian forces have relied heavily on drone technology since the beginning of the war, and Kyiv says it is extending its drone programs both for attacks and reconnaissance.  Reuters

China Envoy Arrives in Ukraine to Start Europe Tour.  Chinese special envoy Li Hui is arriving in Ukraine on Tuesday as part of a Europe tour aimed at facilitating a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war.  The EU has welcomed the effort, though it has stressed that the terms for any peace proposal must be set by Ukraine, which has already presented a peace plan that includes demands for the full withdrawal of Russian forces.  Because of such demands from Kyiv, experts say that while China and the EU agree on the need to end the Ukraine conflict, it is unlikely that Li’s Europe tour will bring about a peace agreement or push the Ukraine peace plan.  Instead, experts say Li will likely focus on setting the stage for negotiations by persuading Russia and Ukraine that they cannot accomplish all their goals and must make concessions.  South China Morning Post

Asia and Oceania

China, Japan Defense Ministers Hold Talks on New Military Hotline.  Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his Japanese counterpart Yasukazu Hamada held talks on a new military hotline for the first time on Tuesday.  The Chinese defense ministry confirmed the exchange and said the hotline will help “effectively enrich” further bilateral communication and boost crisis management capabilities.  Japan’s defense ministry added that Hamada raised security issues, such as tensions in the East China Sea, and echoed that the hotline will help foster trust and communication between China and Japan.  Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo are high over maritime disputes and Japan’s efforts to strengthen military ties with Western partners.  Associated Press South China Morning Post

American Jailed in China on Spying Charges Has Pro-Beijing History.  John Shing-Wan Leung, the American citizen sentenced to life in prison in China over espionage charges on Monday, led several pro-Beijing groups in the US and has a history of engagement with senior Chinese government officials.  Chinese authorities did not provide additional details on the charges against Leung or his personal background, but CNN reports that Leung was prominent in several pro-China organizations in the US, including the Texas Council for the Promotion of China’s Peaceful Reunification and the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification (NACPU), a Taiwan-focused Washington DC-based lobby that has been accused of being controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.  Leung’s apparent prominence in pro-China groups makes his arrest especially interesting; Chinese state media had previously called Leung an “outstanding representative” of “patriotic” overseas Chinese, contrasting his current detention.  Leung was arrested in April 2021 and his case has largely been handled behind closed doors, as is typical of alleged espionage cases in China.  CNN

China Warns Against “Bloc Confrontations” as Hungarian Foreign Minister Visits Beijing.  China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi on Tuesday urged Europe against entering Cold War-era “bloc confrontations” and added that Beijing supports Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” in reference to the escalating US-China rivalry.  Wang made his comments during a meeting with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who is visiting China this week.  Wang said in their meeting that Beijing hails Hungary’s “China-friendly” policies and is willing to work with Hungary and other EU members to further “genuine multilateralism” and good “global governance.”  Szijjarto said Hungary has strengthened ties with China and has “wholehearted support” for China’s peace plan in Ukraine.  In a separate meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang added that Beijing praises Hungary’s support for the third China-Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) Expo, a trade expo currently underway in the eastern city of Ningbo which Szijjarto attended earlier.  The rhetoric and flurry of meetings between Szijjarto and top Chinese diplomats underscores Beijing’s view of Hungary as the most “China-friendly” EU member and its important role in China’s efforts to discourage Western decoupling trends.  South China Morning Post

G7 Faces Challenges on Countering Chinese ‘Economic Coercion.’  Group of Seven leaders meeting in Japan this week are expected to face difficulty in reaching a consensus on how to deal with China’s economic coercion.  The G7 and EU leaders set to attend the summit have largely agreed on the need to address China’s use of trade restrictions – against countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia and Lithuania – in international disputes ranging from the origins of Covid-19 to Taiwan.  However, it is unclear what action will be taken on the matter due to the group’s economic ties with Beijing.  The US has led the call for coordinated action, but it remains to be seen what other G7 members will be willing to commit to and whether any measures will be effectively enforced.  Some experts say efforts to de-risk and diversify supply chains will likely be the most effective, realistic path forward.  Al Jazeera 

Middle East and Northern Africa

UAE Invites Syria’s Assad to Attend COP28 Climate Summit.  The UAE has invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to participate in the UN COP28 Climate Summit starting from November 30 in Dubai.  The UAE embassy in Damascus announced that Assad had been invited by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, marking the latest move by Arab nations to normalize relations with the Syrian government under Assad.  If Assad attends COP28, it will be his first international summit since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011.  CNN

Sub Saharan Africa

Attackers Target US Convoy, Kill 4 in Nigeria.  Attackers in the southeastern Nigerian state of Anambra assaulted a US convoy on Tuesday, killing two police officers and two personnel from the US consulate, and kidnapping a driver and two other police officers.  According to US authorities and local police, the victims were murdered and then set on fire before the assailants escaped after seeing security forces. The White House reports that none of those killed were American citizens. Rescue and recovery operations have begun, and a spokesperson for the State Department said Tuesday that Nigerian security services have launched investigations into the incident.  CNN

Central Nigeria Attack Kills 20.  Armed assailants in the central Nigerian village of Kubat killed 20 people, mostly women and children, on Tuesday morning. According to government officials and residents, the attack came without warning and it is unclear who is responsible. Security forces were deployed to find the perpetrators.  The attack marks the latest incident of violence in the Middle Belt of Nigeria, which has seen heightened conflict between farmers and semi-nomadic herders.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

OpenAI CEO Proposes Framework for Controlling AI Technology in Senate Testimony.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, outlining a three-point plan for regulation of AI technology.  Altman proposed that a new government agency be empowered to license large AI models, including the authority to revoke those licenses if government standards are not met.  Additionally, Altman recommended the creation of AI model safety standards to include assessments of potential dangers.  Finally, Altman suggested that independent audits be conducted on AI models’ performance based on a variety of criteria.  He acknowledged that generative AI tools could eliminate some jobs while creating others, adding that there is a government role “to figure out how we want to mitigate that.”  Appearing with Altman at the hearing was an AI critic, Gary Marcus, and Christina Montgomery, IBM’s vice president and chief privacy and trust officer.  Montgomery told the Senate panel, “the era of AI cannot be another era of ‘move fast and break things,” while she maintained “we don’t have to slam the brakes on innovation either.”  CNN New York Times Washington Post

U.S. Cyber Strategy Aims at ‘Foundational Cyber Skills’ for All Americans. Providing “foundational cyber skills” to all Americans is a key part of the National Cyber Strategy announced in March, according to Kemba Walden, acting national cyber director.  This is in line with the strategy’s principle of shifting the burden from individuals, communities, and small and medium businesses to entities that are better resourced to deal with cyberthreats.  Noting a widespread workforce shortage in cyber skills, Walden told a telecommunications security advisory group that “we’re developing our national cyber strategy for workforce and education, considering the pipeline for filling that workforce.”  Walden said the strategy implementation plan expected to be issued this summer has four pillars: equipping Americans with foundational cyber skills, transforming cyber education, and expanding the nation’s cyber workforce as well as the Federal cyber workforce.  CyberScoop

Cybersecurity Researchers See Russian Hand in ‘Cuba Ransomware’ Targeting in Ukraine. BlackBerry security researchers have concluded that the “Cuba Ransomware” group linked to use of the RomCom RAT malware is not a cybercrime gang but a team working for the Russian government.  Dmitry Bestuzhev, BlackBerry’s senior cyberthreat team director, said the previous attribution between RomCom RAT and Cuba was “a misleading attribution.”  Bestuzhev said that over the last few months, RomCom RAT has been deployed against Ukrainian military units as well as Ukraine’s Parliament and local government agencies.  Despite BlackBerry’s findings, the linkage of these ransomware activities with Russian government hackers is not accepted as conclusive by other security researchers, including the Ukrainian government.  Doel Santos, a senior researcher with Unit 42 of Palo Alto Networks, noted that in monitoring the targeting of Ukrainian targets, there is a cyberespionage “angle with this and because of that, they could be getting direction from a nation state.”  However, Santos said, “we don’t know the extent of that relationship.”  TechCrunch

Pro-Houthi Hacking Group Suspected in Spyware Campaign on Arabian Peninsula. Media outlets and NGO’s have been targeted by a hacking group suspected of ties with Yemen’s Houthi rebels.  The cyberespionage activity has been carried out by a group dubbed “OilAlpha,” according to the Recorded Future cybersecurity firm, and is targeting organizations in the Arabian Peninsula by deploying malicious files through WhatsApp.  Spyware installed by malicious links enable the hacking group to extract call logs, contact information, and GPS location data, among other files.  According to Recorded Future, OilAlpha is likely to continue targeting organizations “that share an interest in Yemen’s political and security developments.”  Political representatives and journalists using Android devices have received mobile spyware such as SpyNote and SpyMax.  Recorded Future acknowledges that other threat actors could be behind the cyber spying campaign, noting that “Lebanese or Iraqi Hezbollah, or even Iranian operators supporting the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], may have led this threat activity.”  CyberScoop

UK Policing Minister Urges Expanded Police Use of Facial Recognition Technology. Britain’s minister for crime and policing is advocating broad use of facial recognition technology by the nation’s police forces.  Fraser Sampson, the UK commissioner for biometrics, reportedly was briefed on Policing Minister Chris Philp’s concept for nationwide use of the surveillance technology that has provoked widespread criticism throughout Europe.  A report on the proposal scheduled to be presented to Parliament on Tuesday noted the policing minister’s support for incorporating “facial recognition technology in policing,” an expansion of use that would also explore the “integration of this tech with police body-worn video.”  Sampson previously has expressed concerns about surveillance technology and has called for “clear and comprehensive” regulation of the use of AI and biometrics by the police. Computing Financial Times   

Beijing Issues Draft Policy to Drive AI Collaboration, Development. The Beijing government is inviting public comment through the end of this week on a new draft policy seeking to reinforce the city’s AI industry.  The policy underscores “grabbing and seizing” opportunities to develop large language models and artificial general intelligence (AGI), the next frontier for AI technology.  The draft policy also spotlights three other areas of interest:  computing power, training data, and regulations.  Collaboration and pooling of computing power by leading public cloud services providers is called for by the policy for the use of Beijing’s “tertiary institutions, research facilities, and small- and medium-sized enterprises.”  Another focal point – regulation -is addressed by the policy, which will seek to create a “stable and tolerant regulatory environment” while advancing generative AI applications for healthcare and finance, among other sectors of the economy.  South China Morning Post

Chinese Search Engine Giant Promotes AI Advances Amid Encouraging Earnings Report. Baidu, China’s leading search engine company and AI pioneer, underscored the technology firm’s commitment to generative AI development and products as it reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2023.  Baidu CEO Robin Li Yanhong noted the “transformative potential of AI in various industries” in a conference call with financial analysts.  He compared ChatGPT-type technologies to the advent of the Internet as a generator of opportunities.  Baidu has begun offering the services of its generative AI platform, Ernie Bot, to customers in financial services, software, and education.  While acknowledging that the Baidu product is “not perfect,” Li said the platform has received positive feedback for its Chinese language capabilities.  When Ernie Bot was launched in January, Li noted that Baidu is not waiting to move forward because of the “market demand” for such products.  South China Morning Post

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