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Wedenesday, May 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden, McCarthy Debt Ceiling Talks Unsuccessful, Discussions to Continue.  President Joe Biden met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday to discuss how to break the deadlock over raising the $31.4 trillion US debt limit but failed to reach an agreement.  Both sides agreed to continue discussions on the matter; Biden and McCarthy will meet with other congressional leaders on Friday.  Biden, who is calling for an increase on the limit without conditions, said the talks were “productive” but is urging Republicans to not threaten default.  McCarthy, who is urging spending cuts to address the budget deficit, said there was little progress at the talks.  If the two sides do not reach a compromise, the US is set to default on June 1, which economists say will trigger a deep recession and destabilize the global financial system. The Cipher Brief  Reuters Washington Post

US Commits $1.2 Billion in New Ukraine Aid.  The Biden administration announced Tuesday it is sending another $1.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine.  The new package will reportedly include HAWK air defense systems, 155mm artillery rounds, drone munitions, and other equipment.  The aid will be purchased from arms manufacturers through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), rather than being pulled from stockpiles.  Experts say aid delivered through the USAI is aimed more at securing medium- and long-term supplies for Ukraine rather than just meeting its immediate needs.  Associated Press  CNN New York Times 

Migrants Gathering at US-Mexico Border Ahead of Title 42 Expiration. Thousands of migrants have begun to gather along the US-Mexico border ahead of the expiration of the Covid-19-related Title 42 border restriction on Thursday. Migrants are reportedly purchasing pool floats and life jackets in preparation to cross the Rio Grande River and are forming lines in front of border fences with the intention of turning themselves into border patrol agents. The Biden administration is allowing the Trump-era restriction to lapse as the Covid-19 public health emergency comes to an end.  In anticipation of the expected migrant surge that will come with the restriction’s expiration, the Biden administration is reportedly planning a new regulation that will deny asylum to migrants who did not seek protection in other countries they passed through first or failed to take legal pathways to enter the US.  This new rule will mainly affect non-Mexican migrants, who usually traverse multiple countries before arriving at the US border.  Reuters 

US Sanctions Son of Mexico’s El Chapo. The US Treasury Department announced on Tuesday that it has sanctioned Joaquin Gomez Lopez, one the sons of Mexican drug lord El Chapo, the former leader of the Sinaloa cartel.  Following El Chapo’s arrest, Lopez joined his brothers in taking over their father’s drug empire. The sanctions alleged that Lopez runs “super labs” to help traffic drugs into the United States. Lopez’s other three brothers were charged in April for running a fentanyl trafficking operation in collaboration with Chinese pharmaceutical companies.  Reuters 

Trudeau: China Cannot Intimidate Canada.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday that Canada will not be “intimidated” by China and will continue to work against any “foreign interference.”  His comments came in response to Beijing’s tit-for-tat expulsion of a Canadian diplomat, which followed Ottawa’s expulsion of a Chinese diplomat accused of targeting a Canadian lawmaker.  Reuters 

Biden Set to be First U.S. President to Visit Papua New Guinea.  President Joe Biden is set to visit Papua New Guinea later this month in between his visits to Japan for a G7 meeting and to Australia. This will mark the first time that a sitting US President has visited the country, and come as the White House attempts to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific region. According to White House Press Secretary Katrine Jean-Pierre, Biden and other Pacific leaders will meet in Papua New Guinea to discuss issues ranging from climate change to maritime safety. Papua New Guinea and the US have been in the process of negotiating a security pact, so it is possible that Biden’s visit may also see a finalization of that agreement.  Al Jazeera 

Axios Examines U.S. Extremist Ties to Russian-Influenced Online Sites.  Axios is out with a report that hate crimes in the U.S. appear linked to and influenced by obscure online chatter linked to Russian sites or outlets with pro-Russian sentiments.  In several recent violent or damaging incidents, including the rampage by a gunman in Dallas on Saturday and the recent online exposure of sensitive U.S. secrets by a National Guardsman, connections to Russian-sympathizing platforms have been documented.  The person alleged to have carried out the mass shooting in Dallas had a profile on the Russian social networking platform OK.RU.  The National Guardsman accused of leaking Pentagon and other secrets in an online gaming site belonged to multiple chat rooms and forums where support for Russia's war on Ukraine was commonplace.  According to Jared Holt, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, the well known Telegram chat service "is the elephant in the room."  The app, which was created in 2013 by the founders of VKontakte, the largest social media site in Russia, is often used to disseminate hate speech.  Axios

Western Europe

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang Visiting Europe.  Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang is visiting three European countries this week to promote business ties and rebuild EU relations.  Qin first visited Germany on Tuesday, where he pledged that China will work with “relevant parties” to help achieve a ceasefire for the Ukraine war.  Despite his promise, Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock noted that any “neutrality” in the conflict means siding with “the aggressor.”  Her comments appear to underline tensions between Europe and China over Beijing’s continued ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine.  Qin will continue his Europe tour with a stop in France, where French President Emmanuel Macron is likely to reiterate his belief that Europe should pursue more “strategic autonomy” rather than blindly follow the US in competition with China.  After France, Qin will move on to Norway; the Scandinavian country is important to China given its leadership in finance, natural resources, international maritime law, and the Arctic Council.  Some experts say Qin’s tour is focused on finding “friends” for China, while other experts suggest his visits are part of a “divide and conquer” strategy to split Europe and the US.  New York Times South China Morning Post

Britain Considers Sending Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine.  The UK appears to be preparing to send long-range missiles, with a range of up to 300km to Ukraine.  According to a procurement notice by the UK-led International Fund for Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry is asking companies for “expressions of interest” in supplying the missiles to Kyiv.  The move would be considered another major development in western support to Kyiv. British officials reportedly say no final decision on the transfer has been made.  Ukraine has not confirmed that the UK is leading an effort to supply the missiles, but it has been asking for longer-range weapons for months.  Ukraine’s Western allies have yet to provide these missiles due to fears that Ukraine will use them to strike far inside Russian territory, which Kyiv has vowed not to do.  Kyiv Independent Reuters The Guardian Washington Post

UK Considering Labeling Russia’s Wagner Group as Terrorists.  Britain is reportedly set to designate Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group as a terrorist organization.  According to The Times newspaper, the British Home Office has been building a case against the group for two months and that action against the group is “imminent.”  If the designation is enacted, it will be a criminal offense to belong to or support Wagner, and the group will also be subject to financial sanctions.  France, whose parliament recently passed a largely symbolic resolution labeling the Wagner force as a “terror group,” is urging the UK to swiftly approve the designation.  Al Jazeera Reuters The Guardian The Times

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Military Unit Confirms Prigozhin’s Claim of Russian Military Retreat Near Bakhmut.  Ukrainian military officials said on Wednesday that a Russian combat brigade has been routed from positions near Bakhmut.  If true, the claim would confirm a similar statement made a day earlier by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigohzin.  Prigohzin said on Tuesday that the Russian army was “fleeing” and that the 72nd had given up over 3 square kilometers.  Moscow has yet to comment on the reports that its 72nd Separate Motor-Rifle Brigade had abandoned its positions near the embattled city.  This would be a significant setback for Russia’s military, who has fought a bloody battle over territory that many analysts say has limited strategic value.  Russia’s military had reportedly been focusing intense efforts over the recent days in seizing complete control of Bakhmut in order to give Russian President Vladimir Putin a battlefield victory in time for Russia’s military parade in Moscow.  Reuters  Deutsche Welle 

Wagner Head Group Lashes Out at Russian Military During Victory Day.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin marked Russia’s Victory Day with further criticism of the Russian military.  Prigozhin said Tuesday that while Victory Day celebrations were being held in Moscow, Ukrainian forces were “tearing up the flanks'' in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and regrouping in the Zaporizhzhia region, likely in preparation for the expected Ukrainian offensive.  Prigozhin added that some Russian defense ministry troops have fled positions around Bakhmut and that he had been threatened with treason charges if he followed suit.  Underscoring challenges that Russian forces are facing, he said that Victory Day belonged to past Russian generations and that “we haven’t earned that victory one millimeter.”  He also appeared to blame the Russian military leadership for these shortfalls, saying "the fish rots from the head.”  CNN Reuters Washington Post

Ukraine Says Russia to Evacuate 2,700 Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Workers.  Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom says it has received information that Russia is planning to evacuate over 3,100 people from the occupied city of Enerhodar, including 2,700 workers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  Energoatom warned that this evacuation will result in a “catastrophic lack” of personnel at the plant which will make it harder to ensure safe operations, even at the plant’s current “cold shutdown” state.  Russia has not commented on the matter and Reuters could not independently verify Energoatom’s claims.  Associated Press Reuters

AFP Reporter Killed in Assault near Bakhmut. Arman Soldin, a journalist from the French news agency Agence France-Presse was killed on Tuesday during a rocket attack near Bakhmut. Soldin and other AFP journalists were traveling through Ukraine with Ukrainian soldiers when they came under fire,  according to a statement from AFP. The rest of the team was unharmed.  Associated Press  New York Times 

Russia’s Victory Day Parade Features a Single, Soviet-Era Tank.  Russia held a strikingly scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square on Tuesday.  While past parades featured hundreds of heavy armor units and other key weapons systems, this year’s parade featured a single Soviet-era T34 tank and was completely devoid of infantry fighting vehicles and military aircraft.  Much of the parade focused on Russia’s S-400 air defense system and Yaris intercontinental ballistic missile system.  Russian authorities say they pared-back the parade for security concerns.  However, experts say the smaller-scale parade could signal that Russia is facing heavy shortages due to the Ukraine war, or suggest that Moscow did not want to look like it was pulling units from Ukraine to participate in the celebrations.  Either way, experts say that the low-level parade underscores difficulties the Russian military is facing in Ukraine.  CNN NBC Newsweek

Central Asian Leaders Attend Russian Victory Day Celebrations.  Several leaders from former Soviet republics attended Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, including the heads of Belarus, Armenia and Central Asian countries.  Experts say the attendance of the Central Asian leaders in particular underscores the region’s dependence on Russia.  While some of the Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan, have signaled support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity amid the Ukraine war, experts say this is trumped by the region’s reliance on Russian energy and business.  For its part, Russia is likely happy for the foreign presence at the Victory Day events as it continues to deal with international isolation following its invasion of Ukraine.  RFE/RL

Russian Missile Found in Northern Polish Forest.  Polish media outlets report that a “military object” found by Polish authorities in northern Poland in April was a Russian CH-55 missile, according to preliminary findings from Poland’s Air Force Institute of Technology.  Polish authorities had not elaborated on the object or its origins when they first discovered it in an area of forest hundreds of kilometers from Poland’s borders with Ukraine, Belarus or the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.  The Polish government and military have not commented on the matter.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

ASEAN Kicks Off Summit, Myanmar in Spotlight.  The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is holding a two-day summit in Indonesia starting on Wednesday.  Eight of the ASEAN member countries’ leaders will be present; Myanmar’s military junta was not invited to the summit, and Thailand’s deputy prime minister will attend as the country prepares for general elections on Sunday.  The summit is reportedly meant to focus on economic issues, but working towards resolving the Myanmar conflict appears to be the primary focus; the meeting opened with a call to end the violence in Myanmar and facilitate dialogue and humanitarian aid access.  Myanmar is particularly top of mind following an attack in the country earlier this week on an aid convoy which included ASEAN, Indonesian and Singaporean representatives.  Other issues likely to be covered at the summit include tensions with China over the South China Sea and US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific region.  Associated Press France 24 Nikkei Asia

Indonesia’s Widodo Calls Quad, AUKUS ‘Partners.’  Ahead of the ASEAN summit, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in a media interview that the bloc should view the Quad and AUKUS as “partners, not competitors.”  His comments reverse his previous apprehension to the AUKUS submarine deal; when it was first announced, he said it would destabilize the region by encouraging military buildup and undermining nuclear non-proliferation efforts.  Australia has worked to assuage its neighbors that the submarines from the deal will not be nuclear-armed and will not challenge ASEAN members.  While experts say many across Southeast Asia are likely still only partially convinced about the AUKUS deal, Widodo’s comments mark a step forward in its favor.  Australian Financial Review

Chinese Ships Cross ASEAN, Indian Vessels Engaged in Exercise.  An independent expert in Vietnam claims a Chinese maritime militia in the South China Sea deliberately approached naval ships participating in an ASEAN-India exercise with the intent of disrupting the drills.  The expert said that the Chinese boats, which reportedly included a research ship, came as close as 10 miles from each other but passed by without incident.  The Indian and Vietnamese governments have not commented on the claims, while China’s foreign ministry dismissed the accusations, saying Chinese fishing and research vessels were operating normally within “maritime areas under China’s jurisdiction.”  Reuters 

Philippine Envoy Says Joint Patrols With US, Australia to Start Soon.  Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez said Monday that the Philippines is set to start joint patrols with the US and Australia in the South China Sea starting in the third quarter of 2023.  The development adds to Manila’s efforts to expand military cooperation with the US and other allies like Australia amid escalating tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea.  ABS-CBN CNN Philippines

US Unveils New Embassy in Tonga in Effort to Extend Diplomatic Presence in Pacific.  In a continued effort to counter growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. opened a new embassy in Nuku'alofa, Tongo on Wednesday,  according to the State Department.  The U.S., Australia, and New Zealand have been concerned that China will construct a naval base in the region, and Washington has attempted to draw up agreements with Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Micronesia to expand its influence in the Pacific. Just this year, the U.S. reopened its embassy in the Solomon Islands after a pause of three decades around the same time the nation awarded a multi-million dollar contract to a Chinese company to enhance a port.  Reuters 

Pakistani Court Indicts Former PM Khan on Corruption Charges, Widespread Protests Break Out.  A Pakistani court indicted former Prime Minister Imran Khan on Wednesday on charges that he illegally sold state gifts while premier.  Election authorities found Khan guilty of the charges last October and barred him from holding public office till the next election.  Khan has denied any wrongdoing.  Police arrested Khan on Tuesday on separate corruption charges.  Supporters of Khan and his political party Tehreek-e-Insaf responded by launching protests across the country.  The demonstrations have turned violent as protesters clash with security forces; at least two provinces have called on the federal government to deploy troops to restore order.  Reuters BBC Associated Press New York Times 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Tunisian Naval Guard Kills Six, Wounds 10 Near Synagogue. A Tunisian Naval Guard, who has not yet been publicly identified, shot and killed six people before being killed by security forces.  The attack occurred at a 2,500-year-old Ghriba synagogue in the city of Djerba, which has the nation’s largest Jewish community and draws large numbers of Jewish visitors during an annual pilgrimage each year.. Tunisia has in the last few years descended into economic and political distress, with the latest attack against tourists being the 2015 assault of British citizens at a resort, in which 38 died. The Washington Post Al Jazeera 

Israel Strikes More Targets in Gaza, Rockets Fired into Israel in Response as Violence Escalates.  A barrage of rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza, following renewed airstrikes by Israel.  The death toll from Israel’s two days of airstrikes reportedly stands at 17, with 37 wounded according to Palestinian officials.  Israel says its airstrikes were targeting infrastructure used to launch rockets by Islamic Jihad.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

Israeli Forces Kill 2 Palestinians in West Bank. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed that IDF forces killed two Palestinian men in the occupied West Bank, a day after Israeli missile strikes on the Gaza Strip killed 15 people. According to a report from the Palestinian news agency WAFA, witnesses say Israeli soldiers killed the men after opening fire on the car they were in during a raid in the town of Qabatiya. Al Jazeera

Saudi King Invites Syria’s Assad to Attend Arab League Summit.  Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz has invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to attend the Arab League summit in Riyadh on May 19.  The Arab League agreed on Sunday that Syria could resume participation in the group after it was suspended for 12 years over Assad’s violent crackdown on opposition protests.  The invitation for Assad to participate in the summit is a powerful show that the regional isolation of his regime is coming to an end.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan’s Doctors Syndicate Claims At Least 100 Killed in Darfur Violence. Sudan’s Doctors Syndicate have claimed that at least 100 people have been killed in the Darfur region since violence broke out between military factions in the country last month. Hospitals in the region are currently out of service, and they are still unable to assess an accurate count of the wounded according to a statement posted on the group’s official Facebook page.   Associated Press 

Cyber and Tech

FBI, Allied Partners Disrupt Russian Malware-Based Cyber Espionage Operation. The FBI and international partners dismantled a sophisticated Russian spying operation that made use of a malware tool dubbed “Snake” to extract sensitive documents from networks around the world.  The FBI and other Federal agencies issued a joint advisory with cybersecurity and intelligence components of allied countries containing guidance on the Snake malware to help cybersecurity professionals remediate their networks.  Reportedly, the malware has been active on computer systems for almost 20 years against what were described as “NATO-aligned targets”.  The malware allowed exfiltration of material from Snake-infected computers, which in turn interacted with other infected computers to route stolen material and communications.  The FBI and partner agencies reportedly disrupted the Snake malware by building a software “payload” to disrupt and remove the program from victim networks in the US.  The FBI declined to identify how many U.S.-based computers were infected.  Authorities say the operation has dealt a major blow to one of the oldest, most well-known cyber espionage groups in Russia. Bloomberg CyberScoop NSA Reuters  

FBI Seizes 13 Domains Providing ‘Booter’ Services for DDoS Attacks.  The Justice Department has announced that the FBI has seized 13 domains allegedly involved in the sale of so-called booter services used to execute denial-of-service attacks on websites.  The seizures were part of a global law enforcement action aiming to disrupt booter services that enable users to launch distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks used to overwhelm networks with data, blocking access to the Internet.  Booster service clients often are motivated by dislike for targeted websites, or to conduct ransomware operations.  According to a Justice Department statement, "ten of the 13 domains seized today are reincarnations of services that were seized during a prior sweep in December, which targeted 48 top booter services."  BleepingComputer ArsTechnica

European Parliament Committee Recommends Spyware Restrictions.  A European Parliament committee investigating widespread use of spyware to eavesdrop on activists and journalists has voted to recommend Community-wide restrictions on the use of the surveillance technology.  The committee agreed to advance legislation that would revise rules governing the sale and use of spyware.  The vote came in the wake of allegations that the governments of Hungary, Poland, and Greece had used digital surveillance tools to suppress critics and opponents and to solidify political and financial power.  The committee recommended that a “conditional moratorium” be imposed immediately on the sale, purchase, and use of spyware.  The ban could be lifted on a country-by-country basis if specified conditions are met.  The Parliament is expected to vote in June on the committee’s recommendations and report.  The committee expressed hope their recommendations would spur the European Commission to introduce reforms.  Bloomberg AFP/Barrons

Google’s AI Startup Uses “Moral Values” Content To Train Chatbot.  Anthropic, the AI firm backed by Google, has disclosed a set of “moral values” used in its AI bot that it says distinguishes it from other generative AI applications.  The company says the UN human rights declaration is among the sources it used to train its chatbot, “Claude.”  Most AI bots use human intervention to train language models about content that might be found offensive.  Anthropic, by contrast, introduces written moral values for Claude to read and learn from as it formulates responses to questions.  According to the company, included among the training values are those that form the response “that most discourages and opposes torture, slavery, cruelty, and inhuman or degrading treatment.”  Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark noted, "In a few months, I predict that politicians will be quite focused on what the values are of different AI systems, and approaches like constitutional AI will help with that discussion because we can just write down the values.”  Reuters

IBM Announces ‘WatsonX’ AI Data Platform for Company Integrations.  IBM today announced a new platform designed to  assist in the integration of artificial intelligence in corporate systems.  IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said that while the initial costs of creating an AI language model are high, follow-on adaptations of the model “for a hundred or a thousand different tasks is very easy and can be done by a non-expert."  According to IBM, WatsonX consists of three components – an AI studio for new foundation models, a specially designed and tailored storage capacity to provide flexibility and performance, and a toolkit to “enable AI workflows that are built with responsibility, transparency and explanaibility.”  Reuters Axios I

Vietnam To Impose Social Media Rule Requiring User Identities.  By the end of the year, Vietnam will require users of local and foreign social media platforms to verify their accounts.  An information ministry official describing the Telecommunications Law Amendment said that "unverified accounts, no matter on local or foreign platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, will be dealt with."  The measure has been taken to exert control over online scams, according to Vietnamese state media.  Legislators must still approve the amendment.  Reuters

Iran Hacking Groups Join Ransomware Groups in Exploiting Printer Vulnerability.  Microsoft Threat Intelligence reports that Iran-based hackers are exploiting an opening in PaperCut, a popular printing management application.  The software is widely used in government, universities, and company systems.  Microsoft researchers have detected intrusions by Mint Sandstorm and Mango Sandstorm, which have been linked, respectively, to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian intelligence and security ministry.  Ransomware groups, including Clop and LockBit, have also exploited the bug according to Microsoft.  The vulnerability provides attackers with access to targeted systems and to extract network usernames, personal names, and account payment card numbers.  TheRecord BleepingComputer

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