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Wednesday, March 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Retired Gen. Jack Keane Discusses What Victory in Ukraine Looks Like.  Retired four-star General Jack Keane, a Cipher Brief Expert and former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army, spoke with The Washington Post about what he thinks victory in Ukraine looks like and how to achieve it.  Keane noted that the current Russian military “is not” the Soviet Army and is simply unable to conduct “combined armed” offensives, a term that describes integration of ground, air and logistics efforts.  Keane says the Russian offensive will likely end soon, giving Kyiv the chance to launch a counter offensive.  He said a Ukrainian offensive would likely focus on the southern coast and would include the targeting of Russian operations in occupied Crimea.  He said a possible Ukrainian objective would be to cut off Russia’s land route to the peninsula and then use long-range weapons to strike Russian military targets in Crimea to allow Ukrainian ground forces to move in.  Keane noted that a Ukrainian offensive will be dependent on additional Western military aid, including ATACMS long-range missile systems, and Ukraine’s ability to learn US-taught combined arms conventional warfare.  Keane emphasized that the US must continue transferring conventional weapons to Ukraine, and played down fears of conflict escalation and doubts over the usefulness of Ukraine aid.  Regarding potential Chinese lethal aid for Russia, Keane said the matter is bringing the US and Europe closer in opposing Beijing.  Washington Post

Two of Four Americans Kidnapped by Gunmen in Mexico Found Dead.  US and Mexican officials report that two of four Americans kidnapped in northeastern Mexico have been found dead.  The other two were found alive and transferred to US authorities.  The kidnapping victims reportedly traveled to Mexico to receive healthcare.  Shortly after crossing the border, they were shot at and abducted by armed men in the city of Matamoros in Tamaulipas state.  Investigations into the attack are ongoing.  Sources say the Americans may have been kidnapped after being mistaken for Haitian smugglers.  CNN New York Times Reuters

FBI, DoD Partnered in Facial Recognition Surveillance Technology.  The Washington Post is out with a report on how the FBI and US Department of Defense collaborated in developing AI-driven facial recognition software designed to identify and track Americans using video footage from street cameras and drones.  The research was revealed in an ongoing Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by the ACLU against the FBI.  Records shared by the ACLU show that much of the research is related to the IARPA-funded Janus program and that testing of the facial recognition system culminated into the development of the Horus search tool.  The Department of Homeland Security said last year that Hours has been offered to at least six federal agencies for use.  The revelation of the research comes amid scrutiny over the privacy implications and effectiveness of facial recognition technology being used in mass surveillance and law enforcement operations.  The FBI has since said it is committed to responsibly using facial recognition technology while respecting privacy rights and civil liberties.  Washington Post

US-China Tensions Continue to Escalate.  The Wall Street Journal is out with a piece on how US-China relations are continuing to rapidly deteriorate.  Hopes that both sides could mend ties in the short-term were dashed by the Chinese spy balloon incident.  Now, the US and China are falling further into an antagonistic Cold War mentality, most recently seen by Chinese leader Xi Jinping and other top Chinese officials escalating rhetoric to condemn what they say are US attempts to contain Beijing and push both sides to conflict.  The report underscores the difficulty in managing tensions due to the US and China’s economic and technology competition, China’s ties with Russia amid the Ukraine war, US support of Taiwan, and domestic pressure on both sides to counter threats posed by the other.  Wall Street Journal

White House Backs Senate Bill to Boost US Ability To Ban Tiktok.  The White House on Tuesday endorsed legislation in the Senate that would give the Biden administration the authority to ban foreign-based technologies and apps on national security grounds, including the Chinese video app TikTok.  White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan said the measure will strengthen the US ability to “address discrete risks posed by individual transactions, and systemic risks posed by certain classes of transactions” involving foreign technologies.  Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, whose office the bill would empower to impose the foreign technology restrictions, said separately that the legislation will help the US better counter security risks.  TikTok has criticized the legislation, saying a ban on the app will block the “export of American culture” to the service’s billion-plus users.  New York Times Reuters

Western Europe

US Says Pro-Ukraine Group Likely Behind Nord Stream Explosions.  US officials say new intelligence suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group conducted the sabotage attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year.  The potential attribution marks the first real progress in the investigation into who was responsible for the destruction of the pipelines.  The intelligence reportedly suggests unspecified Ukrainian or Russian individuals or a combination of the two carried out the attack.  The intelligence also showed no evidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy or anyone at the top of the Ukrainian government were involved in the attack and may have been an ‘off the books’ operation.  US officials say there is much that is still unknown about the perpetrators or their motivations which could have been, according to the intelligence, anti-Russian.  The Ukrainian government responded to the report by saying it was “absolutely not involved” in the pipeline sabotage.  Russia’s deputy UN ambassador reacted to the intelligence by reiterating that Moscow will call on the UN Security Council to establish an independent inquiry into the attacks.  White House spokesperson John Kirby said the US is waiting on results from German, Swedish and Danish investigations into the sabotage before it finalizes conclusions and considers responses.  BBC New York Times Reuters Washington Post

UN Human Rights Chief Raises Concerns Over China, Russia.  UN Human Rights Council head Volker Turk delivered his annual assessment of global human rights on Tuesday.  Speaking at a UN session in Geneva, Turk’s report highlighted civilian casualties, destruction and disruptions to global fuel and food prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  He also criticized Russian attacks on media freedom and civic society, as well as Moscow’s war propaganda.  In regards to China, Turk raised concerns of abuses against Uighurs and other minorities in China's western Xinjiang province.  Turk also touched on the ongoing conflict in Syria, instability in Mali and Burkina Faso, and police brutality in the US and Europe.  Deutsche Welle South China Morning Post

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukrainian-Based Groups Increasingly Staging Attacks Into Russia.  An increasing number of Ukrainian groups are claiming to have conducted cross-border sabotage raids into Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  These small armed groups, which include volunteer units,  have reportedly staged attacks inside Russian territory ranging from the placement of mines to one group’s alleged brief seizure of a border village.  Most recently, the Kraken unit, which reports to Ukrainian military intelligence, said Monday that it destroyed an unmanned observation tower in Russia’s Bryansk region with a kamikaze drone, marking a rare public admission by Kyiv of an attack inside of Russia.  Ukrainian officials usually do not comment on attacks inside Russian territory. Kyiv has maintained however, that it has the right to hit targets in Russia used to attack Ukraine, though it has promised not to use Western-supplied weapons when doing so.  The groups themselves often emphasize that they act autonomously when staging operations within Russia.  Moscow, on the other hand, has described their attacks as escalations by terrorists, a charge that Kyiv says is used to justify the invasion.  New York Times Reuters

Ukrainian Official Claims Bakhmut Battle Is Wagner’s ‘Last Stand’.  A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Tuesday that Russia’s Wagner Group is making its “last stand” in Bakhmut.  The official cited Wagner’s significant losses in the city and noted the mercenary group’s increasing use of professional recruits to replace enlisted prisoners.  Kyiv has claimed that 30,000 of Wagner’s 50,000 troops have been killed, wounded or deserted in and around Bakhmut.  Ukraine’s focus on Wagner losses in Bakhmut suggest that despite the potential loss of the city to Russia, Kyiv is recognizing that fighting there has significantly exhausted Russia’s military force in Ukraine.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksiy defended his decision to maintain the defense of Bakhmut in an interview with CNN where he said that if Russia gains control of the city, it opens up the possibility for future gains by Moscow.  Zelenksiy says that his military commanders are united in their view of maintaining the defense.  New York Times CNN

Belarus Arrests Suspects Behind Attack on Russian Plane.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told state news that Belarusian authorities detained several anti-government activists who claimed to have destroyed a Russian surveillance plane at an airfield near Belarus’ capital of Minsk last month.  Lukashenko said over 20 people have been arrested over the attack and that other suspected perpetrators are “hiding.”  He added that the main culprit behind the attack was a dual national of Ukraine and Russia and called him a “terrorist” trained by the Ukrainian military.  Lukashenko also said the Russian aircraft was only superficially damaged in the attack.  Al Jazeera

Georgia Protests ‘Foreign Agents’ Law.  Thousands of people protested in Georgia on Tuesday by throwing petrol bombs and stones at police after the parliament signaled support for a draft law on “foreign agents.”  The measure would require organizations which receive over 20 percent of their funding from overseas to register as “foreign agents.”  Critics of the bill say it will be used to crackdown on dissent against the government.  BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters

Asia

China Forming Data Management Bureau.  China is establishing a national data bureau to manage data collection, usage and transfers.  Sources say the new bureau will focus on cultivating the data market and be the authority on data exports abroad and data practices for businesses.  The new bureau will reportedly also focus on promoting smart cities and the exchange of information resources across industries.  The move comes amid Beijing’s efforts to strengthen oversight of data security practices and centralize and streamline China’s data management.  Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal

China Restructuring Tech Ministry to Boost Competitiveness, Self-Reliance.  In addition to the new data bureau, China is restructuring its Science and Technology Ministry to address competition with the US and move towards greater technology self-reliance.  The changes include transferring some responsibilities like developing high-tech industrial development zones and technological development in rural areas away from the science and technology ministry to allow it to focus on wider critical innovation.  The reform also further centralizes power over science and technology policies with the Chinese Communist Party.  Bloomberg Reuters

Chinese Military Research Looks at Starlink, US Weapons in Ukraine.  A Reuters review of Chinese military research shows that China’s military-industrial complex is looking closely at how to counter US weapons and technology which could be used to defend Taiwan against an attack by Chinese forces.  The research appears to include examinations of Ukrainian sabotage operations and US support of Ukraine.  Some of the reviewed research highlights Chinese concerns that the US will expand the use of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network, which has been used to secure Ukrainian military communications.  Researchers said the use of Starlink in Ukraine underscores the need for China to develop ways to destroy or disable the satellite network.  Other research noted the increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles and calls for China to increase investment in drone development.  While the research does not indicate policies for the Chinese military, it sheds light on potential Chinese defense priorities moving forward.  Reuters

South Korean Trade Minister to Raise Concern Over US CHIPS Act. South Korea’s Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun will visit the US next week to meet with Commerce Department and White House officials. The South Korean trade ministry said that Ahn will use his visit to express Seoul’s concerns over how the CHIPS Act might make the US a “less attractive investment destination.” Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

US Defense Secretary Austin Visits Iraq.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an unannounced trip to Baghdad on Tuesday.  His surprise trip to Iraq comes amid a Middle East tour and ahead of the 20th anniversary of the start of the Iraq War.  Austin met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during his visit and conveyed his hope to broaden security ties with Iraq, adding that US forces are “ready to remain” in Iraq to continue training the Iraqi military.  Austin also reportedly met top Kurdish officials and urged Iraq and the Iraqi Kurdish region to better cooperate.  Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Politico

Israeli Raid in West Bank Kills Six Palestinians.  An Israeli military raid on the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank killed at least six Palestinians and injured 10 others on Tuesday, according to Palestinian health authorities.  The Israeli military says the raid killed Abd al-Fattah Hussein Ibrahim Gharusha, an alleged Hamas operative who is suspected of shooting dead two Israelis late last month in the town of Huwara, an incident which sparked riots by Israeli settlers in the area.  The Jenin raid came after Israeli settlers again attacked Huwara on Monday, continuing the recent escalation in violence in the West Bank.  Al Jazeera France 24 Washington Post

Arrests Made Over Iranian Schoolgirl Poisonings. Iran’s Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi announced on Tuesday that multiple individuals in six different provinces have been arrested in connection to recent poisonings of girls across Iran.  Mirahmadi accused those arrested of having ties to “foreign-based dissident media” and say they have participated in recent nationwide protests.  He added that investigations are ongoing.  Deutsche Welle France24

Sub Saharan Africa

M23 Rebels Clash with Congolese Troops, Defying Ceasefire.  Congolese troops and M23 rebels clashed in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo despite a ceasefire. Both sides accused the other of attacking and violating the ceasefire first. The fighting reportedly killed and injured several civilians.  Deutsche Welle

Cyber & Tech

Tech Firms Grapple with Latest US Regulations on China’s Inspur. Several tech firms including Nvidia Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc are assessing whether or not they must halt sales of products to China’s Inspur Group LTD after the US placed the company on its trade blacklist. The company was placed on the list following allegations that they had acquired US originated items for use in China’s military modernization efforts. The listing means that US companies cannot sell to Inspur items unless they apply for and receive a license to do so. Reuters

 Germany Considering a Ban on China’s Huawei and ZTE. A spokesperson from Germany’s interior ministry confirmed Tuesday that the German government was reviewing telecom tech suppliers after it was revealed from an anonymous source that the government is considering a ban on Chinese telecom companies Huawei and ZTE. The spokesperson states that the review was not directed at any specific manufacturers, but the German government has been in the midst of a broad re-evaluation of the country’s relationship with China. Deutsche Welle Reuters

45 State AGs Demand TikTok Supply Subpoenaed Materials. A group of 45 state Attorney Generals seeking to review internal TikTok communications has demanded that the company produce subpoenaed materials requested in the investigation. According to Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, the investigation is to see whether or not the company “engaged in deceptive conduct that harmed the mental health of TikTok users.” Reuters

NIST Launches Small Business Cybersecurity Community of Interest.  The National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) announced a new cybersecurity community of interest for small businesses on Monday.  The initiative aims to facilitate cooperation and communication between NIST and small businesses on best cyber practices.  The program comes after the Biden administration issued a new National Cyber Strategy, which calls for software and technology companies to take a larger responsibility for ensuring cybersecurity rather than expecting small enterprises to do so.  FedScoop

Cyberattack on Barcelona Hospital Affects Surgeries, Patient Appointments. A ransomware attack on the Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, one of the city’s main hospitals, has forced the cancellation of over 100 surgeries and 3,000 appointments after crippling the hospital’s computer system. The regional Cybersecurity Agency is working to restore the hospital’s systems.   The Spanish government says the attack was carried out by an outside group known as ‘Ransom House.’  Associated Press

US Special Forces Considering Deepfakes for Deception Operations.  The Intercept is out with a report on how US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) is seeking to develop deepfake video capabilities to conduct online influence and deception campaigns.  SOCOM outlined its desire for deepfake capabilities in recent procurement documents requesting next-generation tools for influence operations.  SOCOM’s use of deepfakes would reportedly be backed by foreign hacking to assess the effectiveness of influence campaigns.  Experts warn that SOCOM’s use of deepfakes must be subject to heavy oversight and regulation amid global scrutiny of digital propaganda and deception.  The Intercept

Chinese Military Shifting to R&D Focus.  Analysts say that China’s defense industry will shift away from large acquisitions of military hardware to expanding research to develop core technologies.  Officials say this change in focus will help modernize and integrate China’s military.  They add that this shift is in response to Russia’s military failures in Ukraine and ongoing technology competition between China and the US.  South China Morning Post

Meta Release of Large Language Model Sparks Fears of Misuse.  A large language model developed by Meta called LLaMA was made publicly available on the internet on Friday.  LLaMA was supposed to only be accessible by select researchers to further develop the model, but a link to download it was posted on 4chan and quickly spread.  The release makes LLaMA the most powerful publicly available language model.  Experts warn there is now a risk that the AI model will be abused for spam, marketing or disinformation purposes.  CyberScoop

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