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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

FBI Chief Says Chinese Lab Leak Likely Caused Covid Pandemic.  FBI Director Christopher Wray said Tuesday that the Covid pandemic was likely caused by a leak from a Chinese lab.  Wray said the FBI has long assessed that a “potential lab incident in Wuhan” was the most likely cause of the pandemic.  He also accused China of “doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate” US and others’ efforts to understand the pandemic’s origins.  Wray’s comments come after The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Energy Department has assessed with low confidence that an accidental lab leak caused the pandemic.  The CIA and one other unnamed intelligence agency reportedly remain undecided on the lab leak theory.  China’s foreign ministry responded to the Wall Street Journal report by referring to a WHO-China report that assessed a natural origin for the pandemic.  BBC Reuters Wall Street Journal

US Not Expecting Significant Russian Gains in Ukraine Near-Term, Pentagon Official Says.  Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said Tuesday that the US does not expect Russia to make significant near-term territorial gains in Ukraine.  Kahl said that while there may be areas of territorial exchange, he saw no reason to expect Russian forces could “sweep across Ukraine” in at least the next year and that the conflict would continue in a “grinding slog.”  His comments came during a hearing before members of the House of Representatives on the $32 billion in military aid sent by the Biden administration to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion.  In response to questions about possible mishandling of the aid, Kahl said there was no evidence of abuses like Ukrainians “diverting” military equipment to the black market.  Al Jazeera Reuters

US Approves Javelin Missile Sales to UK.  The US State Department has approved the potential sale of up to 600 Javelin Missiles to the UK.  The proposed sale is worth $125 million and aims to boost the UK’s long-term defense capacity.  Reuters DoD DSCA

Mexican President Lopez Obrador Criticizes US Support for Protests.  Mexican President Manuel Lopez Obrador on Tuesday accused Washington of meddling in Mexico’s internal affairs in response to a statement from the US State Department expressing support for mass protests against Mexico’s proposed election reform. Lopez Obrador said the reform is of no concern to the US, adding that “there’s currently more democracy in Mexico than in the US.”  Lopez Obrador also said that the US should instead focus on Peru and criticized US support of Peruvian President Dina Boluarte.  Deutsche Welle

Western Europe

France Launches Country’s Largest Military Drills.  France launched its Orion 23 military drills on Saturday in its southern Tarn region.  The exercises involved 7,000 troops from several NATO members in air and amphibious operations.  The drills will also simulate cyber attacks to test the response of participating troops.  The exercises will culminate into further war games involving around 12,000 military troops in mid-April in France’s northeastern Champagne region.  France24

Finnish Parliament Approves NATO Bid.  Finland’s parliament voted overwhelmingly in support of the country’s bid to join NATO.  The parliament voted 184-7 to approve Finland’s accession to the military alliance.  Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO amid concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Hungary and Turkey are the only two alliance members who have yet to ratify the Nordic countries’ membership bids.  Associated Press CNN Deutsche Welle

Greece Train Crash Kills 36.  A head-on collision between a passenger train and cargo train in central Greece killed at least 36 people on Tuesday.  Greek authorities arrested a station master as part of investigations into why the crash happened.  Greek Transport Minister Kostas Karamanlis resigned over the incident, saying he is taking responsibility for Greece’s “long-standing failures” to update its railway system.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Trying to Seize Bakhmut Against Intense Ukrainian Defenses.  Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces are working to encircle the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.  The head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin said Ukraine is mounting “furious resistance” and sending reinforcements to the town to defend it at all costs.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said fighting for Bakhmut is only growing more intense and criticized Russia for “constantly” throwing men at Ukrainian positions in the city with no regard for their lives.  Underscoring the severity of the fight, Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told CNN that “if need be,” Ukrainian forces “will strategically pull back” from the city.  However, he added that Ukraine will consider all options as it will not “sacrifice all of our people just for nothing” and that Russia will not be able to advance much immediately after a Ukrainian withdrawal due to the fortifications in Bakhmut.  Associated Press CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal

ICC Top Prosecutor in Ukraine to Investigate Russian Crimes.  The International Criminal Court’s top prosecutor Karim Khan is visiting Ukraine to investigate Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy and critical infrastructure.  While Russia maintains these attacks have been against legitimate military targets, Ukraine says these attacks have deliberately targeted civilians and their power and water supplies.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised Khan’s investigation, saying it will help play a role in bringing Russia to justice for war crimes.  Zelenskiy has also called for the entire Russian leadership and those involved in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine to be tried in an international court.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Asia

Taiwan Says China Sent 26 Warplanes, Three Warships Towards Island.  Taiwan’s defense ministry reported on Wednesday that China sent 25 warplanes and three warships towards Taiwan in the last 24 hours.  The ministry said 19 J-10 fighter jets flew into the southwest of the island’s air defense identification zone and that four military aircraft crossed the Strait’s median line and added that the warships were in the Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan’s military scrambled fighters, dispatched ships and deployed missile defense systems in response.  The incursions came after China condemned the US Navy for flying a patrol and reconnaissance aircraft through the Strait on Monday.  Associated Press CBS Reuters

South Korea’s Yoon Highlights US, Japan Ties.  South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said Wednesday that trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan is critical to countering North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats and other challenges.  Yoon specifically praised Japan, saying it “has transformed from a militaristic aggressor of the past into a partner that shares the same universal values with us.”  His comments on forging closer ties with Tokyo came after South Korea announced the first economic security dialogue with the US and Japan on supply chain resilience and joint technology development.  Associated Press Japan Times Nikkei Asia Reuters

China’s Xi Meets Belarus Leader Lukashenko.  Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Beijing on Wednesday.  It is Xi and Lukashenko’s first face-to-face meeting since they agreed in September to upgrade their countries’ relationship to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.”  In their meeting, Xi reportedly reiterated China’s support for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war.  Lukashenko, a key ally to Russian President Vladimir Putin, reportedly said that Belarus backs China’s peace proposal for the conflict.  Associated Press CNN NPR

US Treasury Official Visits China Despite Tensions With US.  A senior Treasury Department official reportedly visited Beijing last week despite ongoing tensions between the US and China in a sign of continued diplomatic engagement.  Sources say Robert Kaproth, a deputy assistant secretary focused on China, met Chinese counterparts to discuss macroeconomic and financial issues.  People familiar with Kaproth’s visit said it was “constructive and friendly” without detailing any outcomes.  Kaproth’s trip came as Treasury officials met with Chinese officials at the recent G20 summit in India, though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly did not meet top Chinese officials during the gathering.   Wall Street Journal

Blinken Meeting Central Asia Leaders.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on Tuesday on a trip to Central Asia.  His trip comes as the Biden administration seeks to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Blinken expressed support for “territorial integrity” and stability in the region and announced $25 million in new funding to support economic growth of Central Asian countries as they navigate complying with Western sanctions on Russia.  Euronews Reuters The Hill

Middle East and Northern Africa

IAEA Finds Evidence of Iran Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Enrichment.  The IAEA on Tuesday confirmed in a restricted report that its inspectors had found traces of uranium enriched to 83.7 percent purity – near weapons-grade levels – at Iran’s Fordow nuclear site.  The IAEA said it is having talks with Tehran “to clarify the matter.”   The report added that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent has increased by a third in the last three months to 87.5 kilograms.  Underscoring the rapid expansion of Iran’s nuclear program, US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said Tuesday that Iran has the ability to produce “one bomb’s worth of fissile material” in “about 12 days.”  He said that since the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran’s nuclear progress has been “remarkable,” adding that Tehran is unlikely to return to the deal soon.  BBC CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal

Poison Attacks Targeting Iranian School Girls.  Hundreds of schoolgirls in Iran have reported cases of respiratory distress over the past three months in the holy city of Qom, in what has reportedly been a series of poisonings. Iran’s health ministry says that religious groups opposed to female education are believed to be behind the attacks, and are carrying them out in attempts to deliberately close schools. So far, 35 students have been hospitalized and hundreds of cases reported since November in Qom and two other cities. France24 Reuters

UN Secretary General Visits Iraq.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres arrived in Iraq on Tuesday for his first visit to the country in six years.  Guterres is visiting Iraq to show “solidarity” with Iraq’s people and democratic institutions amid an ongoing political crisis.  The UN said Guterres is scheduled to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, representatives of women’s and youth rights groups and a camp for displaced people during his trip.  France 24

Sub Saharan Africa

Nigeria’s Ruling Party Candidate Wins Presidential Election.  Nigerian electoral authorities declared on Wednesday that the ruling party candidate Bola Tinubu won the country’s contested presidential election over the weekend.  Final results show that Tinubu, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, won 8.8 million votes.  The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate won 6.9 million votes and Labour Party’s Peter Obi won 6.1 million votes.  The election was largely peaceful but plagued with long delays.  Tinubu is set to replace incumbent President Muhammdu Buhari, who has served the maximum two terms.  BBC Deutsche Welle France 24 New York Times

Eritrean Soldiers Reportedly Massacred Hundreds of Tigrayan Civilians Ahead of Peace Deal.  The Washington Post is out with an exclusive report documenting the alleged massacre of over 300 Tigrayan civilians by Eritrean soldiers last fall.  The report cites witnesses who say the Eritrean troops conducted the mass killings in revenge for a recent battlefield defeat.  The massacres reportedly took place across at least 10 villages east of the town of Adwa the week before Ethiopia and Tigray agreed to the November 2 peace deal.  The killings had not been previously reported as survivors and witnesses did not speak up until Eritrean troops withdrew from Tigray in late January.  Satellite imagery from Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies appeared to back the accounts of witnesses by showing damaged buildings and apparent Eritrean military vehicles around the time and in areas the killings reportedly happened.  The massacres are the latest example of atrocities in the Tigray war.  Washington Post

US, Others Express Concern Over Somaliland Conflict.  Representatives from the US, Britain, Qatar, Somalia, the UAE and Turkey met on Tuesday over the escalating conflict in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland, specifically around the disputed town of Laascaanood.  The US State Department said the group expressed concern about the violence and urged dialogue and humanitarian access to the region.  Clashes between Somaliland soldiers and fighters seeking to rejoin Somalia killed 34 people in Laascaanood earlier this month.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

CrowdStrike Releases 2023 Threat Report.  Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike released its 2023 Global Threat Report on Tuesday and says that cyber threats from China are ‘endemic’ and becoming increasingly sophisticated.  The rise in sophistication is due to the increased levels of cybersecurity awareness, forcing hackers to evolve from the historically high levels of malware based attacks. The report found that 71% of cyberattacks in 2022 were malware-free, meaning that attackers gained access using legitimate credentials such as passwords.  The report added that cloud environments are increasingly under threat and that cyber intrusions involving “cloud-conscious” threat actors have tripled in the last year.  Regarding China, the report concluded that China-linked cyberespionage groups are active across the world and found to target 39 global industries on almost every continent, with a quarter of hacking targeting North America and most of the rest targeting China’s neighbors.  And the report noted that while analysts largely overestimated the cyber aspect of the Ukraine war, Russia still engaged in serious cyber operations and is likely to continue to do so for intelligence gathering and other disruptions beyond Ukraine.  CrowdStrike NBCNews

Chinese Hackers Steal ‘Gigabytes’ of Data from ASEAN Email Servers.  WIRED is out with a report on how Chinese cyberespionage groups are launching major attacks on ASEAN and its member countries.  A cybersecurity alert last year showed that the Chinese hackers breached ASEAN’s mail servers and stole “gigabytes” of emails on a “daily” basis in early 2022.  Experts say China would be interested in the stolen data to assess political feelings and major goals in Southeast Asia.  Analysts say China’s state-sponsored hacking in the region likely supports Beijing’s strategic aims in Southeast Asia and will likely increase as the US seeks to bolster relationships with Asian partners.  WIRED

US Reviewing Tech Export Policy for Huawei.  US officials say the Biden administration is considering ending a policy that allowed US technology below the 5G level to be sold to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei.  A Trump administration policy has allowed US suppliers to sell older 4G products to Huawei.  While previous sanctions against Huawei prohibited new export licenses on 5G technology, new actions would go further by revoking existing licenses on 4G products.  This revocation of existing licenses would significantly impact both Huawei and US chip makers doing business with the Chinese tech giant.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

China’s Data Transfer Regulations Complicating Multinational Firms’ Compliance.  Multinational companies operating in China have submitted documents on their data practices to Beijing for review as part of the Chinese government’s increasing data security policies.  China’s internet regulator said 48 foreign and domestic companies, including Amazon, JPMorgan Chase and Volkswagen, have filed reviews and that another 140 entities, including Apple and Siemens AG, are preparing necessary documents.  It is unclear what the consequences of noncompliance with the audit rules are, but reports say the companies have been working for months to prepare required disclosures for review to meet a deadline on Wednesday.  Wall Street Journal

China’s Tencent Forms Special Generative AI Taskforce.  Chinese social media and video gaming giant Tencent Holdings has established a team to head the company’s development of generative AI products.  The team is reportedly focused on Tencent’s HunyuanAide chatbot project.  The new team and project comes as Chinese technology companies race to develop AI chatbots to compete with ChatGPT, which has effectively been banned in China.  South China Morning Post

Illinois’ Biometric Privacy Law Provides Nationwide Blueprint.  US states are looking to Illinois’ biometric information privacy act (BIPA) to inform their own privacy legislation regarding biometric data like fingerprints and images of faces.  While federal efforts on biometric privacy legislation have largely failed to get off the ground, BIPA has been effective since its passage in 2008.  Key elements in BIPA include the private right of action, which enforces biometric privacy regulations and has already been used in cases against AI companies for the sale of information like facial recognition data.  Activists and experts say that as other states move to pass similar legislation, BIPA offers the best example for privacy protections that do not hinder functions like identity authentication.  CyberScoop

Dish Network Confirms Ransomware Attack.  Dish Network confirmed on Tuesday that its ongoing multi-day network and service outage which started on Friday was caused by a ransomware attack.  The company said in a securities filing that the threat actors behind the ransomware attack appear to have stolen data from the compromised systems, though the company did not say if employees or customers had been affected.  Sources told BleepingComputer that the Black Basta ransomware gang may have been behind the attack and breached Dish Network by targeting its VMware ESXI servers.  BleepingComputer

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