Report for Wednesday, June 26, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Israeli airstrikes kill at least 24 in Gaza City, including Hamas chief’s family.

Biden administration considers allowing U.S. contractors to deploy to Ukraine.

North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' Pentagon says.

Homeland Security agents searching for up to 50 immigrants in US with possible links to ISIS.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Debate: What Cipher Brief Experts Want To Hear from Biden and TrumpThe Cipher Brief

Dear Presidential Candidates: North Korea is Part of Putin’s StrategyThe Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israeli airstrikes kill at least 24 in Gaza City, including Hamas chief’s family. Israeli forces killed at least 24 Palestinians in three separate airstrikes on Gaza City early Tuesday. Among the dead, Gaza health officials said:  a sister and nine other members of the family of Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas. The Haniyeh family home was in Gaza City’s Al Shati refugee camp. Two more Israeli airstrikes hit two schools in Gaza City, killing at least 14 people, medics said.  Israeli tanks pressed deeper overnight into western Rafah. Three of his sons and four of his grandchildren were killed in an Israeli strike in the Al Shati camp in April.  From Doha, where he lives in exile, Haniyeh said, "If [Israel] thinks targeting my family will change our position or that of the resistance, they are delusional," the statement said. He said that any deal that does not guarantee a ceasefire and an end to Israel's offensive in Gaza was "not an agreement.”   Reuters   Voice of America  Times of Israel  Reuters

Israel’s high court rules that the army must draft ultra-orthodox.  Israel’s Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that the country’s military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish students, a decision likely to sow discord within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition.The nine-judge panel ruled unanimously that ultra-Orthodox religious scholars have no legal basis for demanding exemptions. The ruling denied government funding to religious students, affecting tens of thousands of people, tens of millions of dollars in funding, and political prospects of the two ultra-Orthodox political parties that form the foundation for Netanyahu’s fragile parliamentary coalition. Wall Street Journal

Defense chief warns Israel to avoid another Hezbollah war.  Meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel against opening a second front against Hezbollah.  “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East, and so diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation,” Austin said.  Gallant responded that Israel was trying to achieve a diplomatic resolution but also had to be ready for “every possible scenario.”  PBS   Defense.gov  Al Jazeera 

U.S. soldiers on Gaza pier grapple with weather, destruction and aid backlog. U.S. troops working on a floating pier in the Mediterranean Sea to help Gaza amidst the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas are in a daily battle against heat, waves, and a pile-up of aid. Despite delivering 8,332 pallets of aid, nearly 6,900 pallets remain on Gaza's coast, awaiting U.N. distribution due to security concerns. The pier has faced operational challenges, including pauses due to sea conditions and repairs in Ashdod, Israel. There are discussions about extending the pier's authorization beyond July 31 if aid distribution can resume effectively in the coming days and weeks. Reuters

Germany reveals more aid for Gaza, criticizes settler violence in West Bank.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday announced 19 million euros ($20.3 million) in additional aid to Gaza and criticized some actions of the Israeli government, claiming they undermine the country's long-term security. During her visit to Jerusalem, a trip aimed at preventing the Israel-Hamas conflict from escalating, Baerbock expressed concern over increasing settler violence in the West Bank, which she said spreads fear and hatred. She warned that aggressive settler policies by parts of the Israeli government coalition threaten the country's long-term security interests. Reuters

U.N. threatens to suspend Gaza aid operations unless Israel protects its workers.  Senior U.N. officials said Tuesday they have delivered an ultimatum to Israel: act immediately to protect humanitarian workers or the UN pulls aid operations out of Gaza.  A U.N. letter sent to Israeli officials this month said U.N. workers must have a way to communicate directly with Israeli forces on the ground in Gaza. U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said that conditions for aid workers in Gaza were “increasingly intolerable.”  Talks are underway to improve the situation.  Associated Press Reuters    

UNRWA chief says Gaza suffering under chaos, near collapse of order.  UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini reported scenes of increasing chaos and lawlessness in Gaza, where smuggling bands are forming and augmenting the challenges in delivering aid to struggling Palestinians. Attacks against aid trucks make it "excruciating" to deliver supplies, with local police too afraid to escort convoys and humanitarian drivers facing threats and assaults. The situation is exacerbated by a severe gasoline shortage, halting UNRWA's vehicle fleet. Lazzarini emphasized the need for sustainable, uninterrupted aid to combat high famine risk. Israel claims to facilitate aid flows and blames distribution issues on aid agencies. Established in 1949, UNRWA provides essential services in Gaza, though 16 countries paused payments earlier this year due to alleged links between staff and armed groups. However, all but the U.S. and Britain have resumed funding after a review found no evidence supporting these claims, ensuring UNRWA's operations are funded until the end of August. Reuters

WHO reports 2,000 Gaza medical evacuations blocked by Rafah crossing closure.  WHO official Rik Peeperkorn reported that medical evacuations for at least 2,000 patients have been halted due to the closure of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza. Previously, about 50 critical patients a day were evacuated through Rafah, the main route for medical evacuations and humanitarian aid, but it has been closed since Israel launched an operation on Gaza's southern edge in May. Efforts by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar to reopen the Rafah crossing and increase aid flows have yet to succeed. The nearby Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing faces safety and logistical issues, and Peeperkorn estimates that at least 10,000 people need evacuation from Gaza for war-related injuries and chronic diseases. He called for more routes to be opened to facilitate medical transfers to hospitals in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Russia's Shoigu and Gerasimov. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants Tuesday for former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov for alleged crimes during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This brings the total to eight warrants against senior Russian figures, including President Vladimir Putin, charged with deporting Ukrainian children. The ICC accuses Shoigu and Gerasimov of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Specifically, they  “bear individual criminal responsibility” for a campaign of missile strikes against Ukrainian electric power plants and substations from October 2022 to March 2023, the court said. Russia, not an ICC member, dismisses the charges as part of a Western hybrid war. The court continues its investigations into war crimes in Ukraine. Russia’s latest aerial barrages, which began in March, are zeroing in on thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which officials and experts said would be much harder and more expensive to fix, rebuild, or replace. Reuters Politico Financial Times 

Zelensky welcomes ICC warrants for Russian military figures, hopes to see them jailed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the International Criminal Court's decision to issue arrest warrants against Russia's former defense minister and chief of general staff for strikes on Ukrainian civilians and civilian objects. "Every criminal involved in the planning and execution of these strikes must know that justice will be served. And we do hope to see them behind bars," Zelensky said on Tuesday. "We look forward to more arrest warrants in order to deprive Russia of its sense of impunity.” Reuters 

Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow. Two advisers to Donald Trump proposed a plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. The plan involves conditioning U.S. military aid to Ukraine on its willingness to enter peace talks with Russia while warning Moscow that refusing to negotiate would lead to increased U.S. support for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, one of Trump's national security advisers, said in an interview Tuesday. Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump's National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks, Fleitz said. Ukraine’s NATO membership would also be delayed. Trump responded favorably to the proposal, Fleitz said. The strategy outlined by Kellogg and Fleitz is the most detailed plan yet by associates of Trump, who has said he could quickly settle the war in Ukraine if he beats President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 election, though he has not said how he would do that. The plan's core elements were outlined in a publicly available research paper published by the "America First Policy Institute," a Trump-friendly think tank where Kellogg and Fleitz hold leadership positions. Critics argue it favors Russian interests. Ukraine insists on peace based on international law, including recovery of all of its territory that Moscow illegally occupies. Reuters

Biden administration moves toward allowing American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine. The Biden administration is considering lifting the ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to maintain and repair U.S.-provided weapons systems. This policy shift aims to support Ukraine's military against Russia. While the decision is not final, it would allow the Pentagon to contract American companies for work in Ukraine, speeding up equipment repairs. President Biden remains firm on not sending U.S. troops to Ukraine. This move follows recent US decisions to bolster Ukraine's defense, such as allowing strikes inside Russia. The policy change would result in a limited number of contractors in Ukraine. CNN 

ANALYSIS–Zelensky’s formidable task: Keeping the West and his citizens on board. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is fighting a dual battle: keeping Western support robust while rallying his war-weary citizens against Russia's relentless invasion. As Russia's aggression enters its third summer, Ukraine’s troops desperately need reinforcements, and civilians are hesitant to enlist. Zelensky juggles promises of European Union and NATO membership with immediate military aid needs, managing tensions with the U.S. over anti-corruption measures. Despite these hurdles, Zelensky scored a symbolic win by starting EU membership talks and securing a major U.S. military aid package. Domestically, efforts to mobilize troops reshape daily life, with men fearing conscription. While some soldiers' families protest for demobilization, Zelensky’s popularity remains high, supported by his decisive actions and international diplomacy. The president’s strategic maneuvering is critical as Ukraine aims to hold its defensive lines and push back against Russia, ensuring continued Western backing and advancing toward a hopeful yet challenging EU future. Wall Street Journal 

Zelensky says he's sure Ukraine will become EU member as accession talks kick off. President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed confidence Tuesday that Ukraine will become a full European Union member as accession talks began on June 25 in Luxembourg. This marks the official start of negotiations following an EU ambassadors' agreement. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's commitment to aligning with EU standards and completing necessary reforms. Despite progress, officials predict Ukraine’s EU membership could take until 2030. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine brings back 90 POWs from Russian captivity. On Tuesday, Ukraine successfully brought back 90 people from Russian captivity in a prisoner exchange, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. The exchange included personnel from the Armed Forces, National Guard, border guards, and Navy. In return, Ukraine released 90 Russian soldiers. This marks the 53rd prisoner exchange since the full-scale war began, with a total of 3,300 Ukrainian soldiers freed to date. The United Arab Emirates played a role in assisting the exchange. Kyiv Independent Reuters  

Zelensky visits frontline soldiers in Donetsk.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with his top military leadership, on Wednesday traveled to the eastern frontline region of Donetsk to meet with troops. Against the backdrop of a city sign reading Pokrovsk, he recorded a video message. Reuters 

Satellite image shows fire at ammunition depot in Russia's Voronezh region. Satellite imagery shows fires at an ammunition depot in Olkhovatsky district, Voronezh, after a Ukrainian drone attack on Tuesday. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) claimed responsibility, sharing a video of the blaze covering 3,500 square meters. Local authorities declared a state of emergency to manage the detonation's aftermath. No injuries were reported. Ukrainian forces frequently target Russian military assets, including a recent strike on a Shahed drone base in Krasnodar Krai. Kyiv Independent 

Death and destruction in a Russian city. The once peaceful city of Belgorod, Russia, near the Ukrainian border, has been devastated by the war since December 30, 2023, when a Ukrainian rocket killed 25 civilians. Frequent attacks have left 200 civilians dead and 800 wounded. The city, previously known for its modern amenities and connections to Kharkiv, Ukraine, now faces daily bombardments. Residents live in fear, with a significant outflow of people and a heavy military presence. Despite the chaos, local support for Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” is higher than the national average, driven by fear of Ukrainian retaliation. The Economist 

Russia claims Ukraine shelled, destroyed radiation control post in Zaporizhzhia.  Russian officials who are managing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant claimed Wednesday that Ukrainian shelling destroyed a radiation control post in Velyka Znamyanka. The plant's specialists implemented measures to monitor and control the radiation situation and reported that radiation levels remain safe. Kyiv has not yet commented on the situation. The Zaporizhzhia plant, captured by Russian troops early in the 2022 invasion, has been a point of contention, with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of compromising safety around the facility. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 25, 2024. The European Court on Human Rights ruled that Russia has committed multiple human rights violations in Crimea since its occupation began in 2014. Russia and Venezuela signed a memorandum to counter "coercive measures," indicating the Kremlin's influence in the Western hemisphere. Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast and targeted Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Belgorod Oblast. Russia imposed counter sanctions on 81 EU-based news outlets in response to European Union sanctions on Russian state-affiliated news sites. Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov ordered investigations into senior officials following terrorist attacks, indicating efforts to address Islamist extremism in the North Caucasus. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya, highlighting deteriorating Armenian-Belarusian relations.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces regained positions in Vovchansk while Russian troops advanced near Siversk and Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine would be 'cannon fodder,' Pentagon says. Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said Tuesday that North Korean troops would become "cannon fodder" if deployed with Russian forces in Ukraine. This follows a strategic defense agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 19. The deal mandates mutual assistance in the event of war. The North Korean military plans to send an engineer unit to Donetsk Oblast. North Korea has supplied Russia with artillery amid Western sanctions. Internal Russian trade data obtained by the Washington Post shows that Russia may have received 1.6 million artillery shells from North Korea over the course of six months. South Korea is reconsidering its opposition to supplying weapons directly to Ukraine. Kyiv Independent 

Defense Ministry bought plastic flasks for army at 3 times market rate, investigation finds. An investigation by NGL Media revealed that Ukraine's Defense Ministry spent over 54 million hryvnias ($1.3 million) on 153,000 plastic flasks at triple the market price through the State Logistics Operator (DOT). Purchased from China for 335 hryvnias ($8.24) each, these flasks are available for as low as 72 hryvnias ($1.77) elsewhere. DOT awarded contracts to Coltrane LLC and Superform LLC, bypassing cheaper offers. Both companies, newly established, have quickly secured lucrative government contracts. The Defense Ministry cited technical standards as the reason for rejecting lower bids. The investigation suggests substantial profits for the intermediary companies. Kyiv Independent 

AMERICAS

Homeland Security agents searching for up to 50 immigrants in US with possible links to ISIS.  The Department of Homeland Security has identified over 400 immigrants brought to the U.S. by an ISIS-affiliated human smuggling network as "subjects of concern." While more than 150 have been arrested, the whereabouts of over 50 remain unknown, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement is actively looking to arrest them on immigration charges. Despite the potential ties to ISIS, no information has linked these individuals to any threats to the U.S. homeland. The focus has shifted to monitoring immigrants from countries where ISIS-K is active, following recent terrorist attacks in Russia. Officials are using immigration violations to detain individuals as a precautionary measure. Some of the detained individuals have already been deported, while others are still under surveillance. Counterterrorism officials emphasize that the threat from migrants crossing the U.S. border remains historically low.   NBC News  

Pentagon chief, new Russian defense minister talk for the first time.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had his first phone call Tuesday with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, appointed in May.  Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amidst Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine," Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said. Kviv Independent 

U.S. goes easy on Russian, Iranian oil sanctions to keep fuel prices stable.  President Joe Biden’s foreign policy calls for a hard line on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. But to win reelection, he has to keep gas prices moderate and stable, so his administration’s sanctions on Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil producers have been less than draconian according to analysis by the Wall Street Journal. For instance, on Tuesday, the U.S. threw softball sanctions at Iran which analysts say are not likely to have much impact.  The Wall Street Journal

Brazilian to lead Interpol.   Valdecy Urquiza, 43, who is currently Interpol's vice president for the Americas and head of international cooperation at the Brazilian federal police, will succeed Juergen Stock of Germany to lead Interpol from 2025 to 2030. Urquiza is a graduate of the FBI National Academy. Reuters Interpol South China Morning Post  

Czech purchase of US ammo business could hit security snag.  The Czechoslovak Group wants to buy Vista Outdoors’s ammunition business. But the sale must pass a national security review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., an interagency panel led by the Treasury Department, which can bar foreign purchases on national security grounds. Politico   

NTSB head blasts Norfolk Southern.   Jennifer Homendy, head of the independent National Transportation Safety Board, accused Norfolk Southern railroad of withholding information from investigators probing the East Palestine, Ohio, derailment and emergency response. Homendy accused the railroad of dragging its feet on releasing information, abusing the board’s investigations process, “manufacturing its own evidence” and trying to smear the board’s reputation, which she called the gold standard for accident investigations around the world.  Politico ABC News 

Canadians urged citizens to leave Lebanon.  Canada called for its citizens to leave Lebanon, saying the security situation in the country was increasingly volatile and unpredictable as Israel and Hezbollah move toward a hotter war.   Reuters Times of Israel Barron's  

Haiti PM vows to retake country as first Kenyan police arrive. The first contingent of Kenyan police arrived in Haiti to launch a peacekeeping mission amidst gang violence. Prime Minister Garry Conille stated the mission aims to retake control and restore peace without major fights unless necessary. "The state will regain power and reaffirm its authority so all Haitians can live peacefully in this country,” Conille said. Kenya's Foreign Minister Monica Juma emphasized protecting civilians and aiding humanitarian efforts. The mission, requested in 2022, has faced delays and concerns over potential forceful responses from armed groups. Despite challenges at home, Kenya leads the 2,500-strong, U.S.-funded mission. Aid groups urge transparency. Previous missions in Haiti left behind slain civilians, a devastating cholera outbreak, and a sexual abuse scandal for which reparations were not made. Conille called for gang members to disarm and return to normal life. Reuters New York Times Associated Press Washington Post 

Venezuela’s dark fleet ships oil to Cuba.   Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has begun using tankers that navigate off radar to supply oil to Cuba.  Most of the tanker fleets owned by Venezuela and Cuba are under U.S. sanctions, which limits their travel. They have turned to dark fleet vessels operated by third parties that often lack western insurance and send false location signals to disguise their movement.  Reuters 

Peru relaxes Chinese port dispute before president's meeting with Xi.  Peru has requested that a judge withdraw its request to revoke the exclusive rights of a Chinese state-owned company, Cosco Shipping Ports, to operate the Chancay Port Terminal, which it is constructing on Peru's Pacific coast. The move seems designed to ease tensions before Peruvian President Dina Boluarte meets with Cosco executives and Chinese President Xi Jinping in China. The transportation ministry prosecutor formally requested the withdrawal on Monday, following Congress's approval of changes to Peru's ports law ensuring Cosco's exclusive operational rights. The Chancay megaport, a $3.5 billion project expected to be inaugurated in November during the APEC summit in Lima, is intended to become a key hub in the South American Pacific. However, it has raised concerns among U.S. and European stakeholders about increasing Chinese influence in Latin America. Reuters 

EUROPE

Mark Rutte Moves from Leading Netherlands to Heading NATO. Mark Rutte, the long-serving Dutch prime minister, has been appointed as NATO's new secretary-general, succeeding Jens Stoltenberg on October 1. Known for his strong support of Ukraine and criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Rutte's appointment comes at a critical time as NATO navigates Russia's war against Ukraine and a potential U.S. presidential shift. Rutte, a seasoned leader with a reputation for coalition-building and compromise, faces the challenge of uniting the alliance amid geopolitical tensions. His personal history and straightforward style, including biking to work and teaching, contrast with his new role's heightened security and demands. New York Times 

NATO Wants to Boost Its Undersea Defenses. NATO is enhancing its undersea defenses to counter potential threats from Russia, which could disrupt the global economy by cutting undersea cables. The concern was highlighted by the 2022 incident damaging Svalbard's fiber optic cables. NATO believes Russia has mapped European undersea infrastructure for potential sabotage. To address this, NATO established an undersea infrastructure coordination group, working with private sector operators to create an alert system for undersea threats. Efforts include using AI to map the seafloor and possibly burying pipelines. Norway and other North Sea countries collaborate to share operational information and protect undersea infrastructure. Foreign Policy 

Putin bans 81 European media outlets, including POLITICO. Russia has restricted access to 81 European Union media outlets, including POLITICO, in retaliation for the EU banning four Russia-linked media organizations for spreading Kremlin propaganda. The Russian foreign ministry justified the move by accusing these outlets of disseminating false information about Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. The banned outlets include France's AFP and Spain's EFE. POLITICO condemned the action as a politically motivated attack on press freedom. The Kremlin indicated it might reconsider if EU restrictions on Russian media are lifted. The EU previously banned RT and Sputnik to combat Russian disinformation amid the Ukraine conflict. Politico

Behind closed doors, US reporter Gershkovich to go on trial in Russia. U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, detained since March 2023 on espionage charges, will stand trial in Russia behind closed doors. The Wall Street Journal reporter is accused of collecting secret information on a Russian tank manufacturer for the CIA, charges he and the U.S. government deny. His trial, devoid of public access, is seen as a politically motivated move by Russia, with potential implications for a future prisoner swap. Gershkovich faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted. The U.S. has criticized his detention as "totally illegal," highlighting the broader conflict over press freedom. Reuters BBC New York Times The Guardian

Georgia’s pro-EU parties unite in bid to oust government. In the October elections, six opposition parties in Georgia have united to challenge the ruling Georgian Dream party, aiming to restore the country’s EU integration efforts. The coalition, including the United National Movement and several other parties, signed a declaration in Brussels pledging to campaign together and support President Salome Zourabichvili's re-election. They call on Western nations to ensure free and fair elections. The alliance was formed in response to Georgian Dream's controversial "foreign agent" law and crackdowns on LGBTQ+ rights, which critics say mimic Russian policies and hinder Georgia's EU candidacy. Politico 

Von der Leyen lined up for second term under EU top jobs deal, sources say. European political groups have agreed to a deal for top European Union posts, nominating Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as head of the European Commission. The deal also proposes Portuguese ex-premier Antonio Costa as European Council president and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as EU foreign policy chief. EU leaders are expected to approve the deal at an upcoming summit, but von der Leyen will need broader support from the European Parliament. This package maintains centrist pro-EU control despite a recent far-right surge in European Parliament elections. Far-right leaders, including Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Hungary's Viktor Orban, have expressed opposition. Reuters 

Kremlin Announces Preparations For Indian PM's Visit To Russia. The Kremlin announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia, marking his first trip since the Ukraine invasion. Dates are yet to be confirmed, though Indian newspaper The Tribune reported a July 8 visit, just before the NATO summit. Modi and Putin spoke by phone in early June. Modi last visited Russia in 2019, meeting Putin in Vladivostok. RFE/RL 

ANALYSIS–A New Era of Financial Warfare Has Begun. Washington and the West have escalated financial warfare against Russia and China, risking the legitimacy of the U.S.-dominated financial system. At the G-7 summit, unprecedented actions were taken to give Ukraine billions in profits from frozen Russian assets, and new measures were aimed at Chinese banks. Experts warn these moves might undermine trust in the dollar- and euro-based system, pushing countries to diversify reserves, including into gold. Russia and China have been preparing alternatives to this system, with China quietly reducing its exposure to Western sanctions. This strategy could eventually lead to a renminbi-based financial system, aligning with President Xi Jinping's long-term goals. The actions taken by the G-7 could inadvertently support these objectives, creating a potential shift away from the current global financial norms and increasing geopolitical tensions. Foreign Policy 

U.S. Designates Belarus 'State-Sponsor' Of Human Trafficking In 2024 Report. The U.S. designated Belarus as a state sponsor of human trafficking, citing forced labor centers and the transfer of Ukrainian children. The 2024 Trafficking In Persons Report highlights Belarus's use of "labor therapy centers" for forced labor, involving thousands of individuals. The U.S. calls for the repatriation of Ukrainian children taken by Belarus. Belarus, newly added to the list, joins Russia in Tier 3 for minimal action against trafficking. The report also notes deceptive recruitment for the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. RFE/RL 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Pentagon says it doesn’t need a carrier in the region to defend against Houthi assaults. The Pentagon is confident that it can respond to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea despite a temporarily reduced naval presence, as the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group has left the region after an extended deployment and moved to the Mediterranean Sea. The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group, currently stationed in the Pacific, will replace it, but will not start its journey until next week, resulting in a brief period with only two destroyers, the USS Laboon and USS Cole, in the Red Sea. Once the Roosevelt arrives, it will bring four additional ships to bolster the Navy's presence. However, specific arrival dates remain undisclosed. The Navy continues to work with international allies to safeguard maritime commerce and safety in the region. Military.com 

[shortcode-ExpertComment comment="We don't need merely to "defend" against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. We need to go on the offense against them in a serious way. Therefore, a US carrier is needed on station as a result. Pulling IKE out of the region is a mistake" text-source="X" expert-slug="admiral-james-stavridis" expert-id="2270273351"]

UKMTO reports missile strike close to vessel south of Yemen's Aden, no damage.  A merchant vessel captain on Wednesday flagged a missile landing in water near the ship, 52 nautical miles south of Yemen's port of Aden, as per the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The crew remained safe and continued to their next port. Houthi attacks have disrupted global trade, causing ships to avoid the Suez Canal and prompting U.S. and British retaliatory strikes since February. Reuters

U.N. predicts increase in overdose deaths due to Taliban’s ban on narcotic production. A significant reduction in opium production in Afghanistan, which has historically been the world's largest supplier, could lead to an increase in overdose deaths as heroin users turn to synthetic opioids, according to a U.N. report. The Taliban's 2022 ban on narcotics slashed Afghan opium cultivation by 95% last year. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported that though Myanmar's opium production rose by 36%, global production still dropped by 75%. The UNODC warns that a prolonged shortage of Afghan opiates might reduce heroin purity and drive users to more dangerous synthetic opioids, like fentanyl analogues or nitazenes, already causing overdoses in Europe. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Taiwan detects Chinese combat readiness patrol near island.  The Taiwanese defense ministry on Wednesday reported Chinese military activity in the north, south, and center of the country, and said that Beijing was carrying out another "joint combat readiness patrol." The operations reportedly involved warships in addition to 26 aircraft, including J-16 fighters. China’s defense ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment. These missions, which Taipei describes as harassment, follow Beijing’s vow to track down and punish "diehard" independence supporters, increasing tensions following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's recent inauguration. Reuters 

North Korea still constructing borders, fortifications, decades after war.  North Korean soldiers are still constructing new fortifications and anti-tank barriers, planting landmines, and strengthening tactical roads near the shared border with South Korea, seventy-four years after the start of the Korean War in 1950. Their activities within the heavily armed Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) have caused casualties from their own landmines, and occasionally prompt warning shots from the South’s military. The Korean War, which involved multiple nations under U.N. forces and ended in an armistice in 1953, left North and South Korea in a technical state of war. Recent months have seen rising tensions, with Pyongyang declaring Seoul its "primary foe" and developing nuclear weapons. Analysts suggest these actions reflect North Korea's new policy stance, aiming to express hostility, consolidate internal unity, and test military threats. Reuters 

South Korea reports midair explosion from North’s failed missile launch. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that North Korea test-fired a hypersonic missile off its east coast on Wednesday, but says the projectile exploded in flight. The missile, launched near Pyongyang, reached an altitude of about 100 km and a range of over 200 km. The test-fire, condemned by senior officials from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, violated multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command also condemned the act while noting that the event did not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or allies. This follows North Korea's last missile launch on May 30 and coincides with the 74th anniversary of the start of the Korean War. It also comes after Pyongyang criticized the deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier for joint drills with South Korea and Japan, warning of a significant show of deterrence. On Wednesday, North Korean state media reported a mass rally in Pyongyang commemorating the war anniversary, denouncing Washington as the archenemy. Reuters Time

South Korean airport briefly closed due to North’s trash balloons. South Korea's Incheon International Airport was forced to temporarily shut down three runways and halt takeoffs and landings for around three hours before dawn on Wednesday due to balloons from North Korea, reportedly filled with refuse and trash. One balloon landed on the tarmac near Terminal 2. This incident is part of an ongoing campaign by Pyongyang, which has sent hundreds of trash-filled balloons into the South since late May in response to what it calls South Korean activists' propaganda efforts. The disruption, occurring from 1:46 a.m. to 4:44 a.m., affected both domestic and international flights. During this period, eight arriving flights were diverted to other airports in South Korea or China, and several more flights experienced delays. South Korea's military reported about 100 balloons falling between Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily in Seoul and Gyeonggi province, most of which contained only scraps of paper. Reuters

Vietnam’s leader supports China’s rise in development, says nation plays ‘crucial role’ in global economy. Despite its unstable recovery, China plays a key role in the world’s economy, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said on Tuesday while speaking at the 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions in China’s port city of Dalian. Chinh expressed support for China's role in promoting multilateralism, praising Beijing's significant contributions to global economic growth and leadership in sectors like science, technology, renewable energy, and information technology. Despite current economic challenges, Chinh remains confident in China's ability to positively impact the world economy. In spite of territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Hanoi and Beijing maintain strong ties. During Chinh's visit to Dalian, he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, discussing enhanced trade, investment, and cooperation in fields like new energy and the digital economy. Chinh affirmed that strengthening long-term cooperation with China is Vietnam's strategic priority. South China Morning Post

South China Sea conflicts increase fears of war.  Friction between China and the Philippines has escalated significantly following last week’s violent clash in the South China Sea, in which Chinese Coast Guard personnel rammed and boarded Philippine boats, wounding several Filipino sailors. Manila has accused the Chinese of acting like "pirates," while Beijing justified its actions as necessary measures to protect its sovereignty. This incident is part of a series of confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels, raising concerns about potential escalation into broader conflict. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has strengthened ties with the West, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterating Washington's commitment to the Philippines. However, analysts argue that more action from the U.S. is needed to deter further Chinese aggression. Beijing's aggressive stance is seen as a strategy to pressure Manila into negotiations but carries the risk of triggering the U.S.-Philippines defense treaty. The Philippines has also appealed to the U.N. to recognize its territorial claims, which China has opposed. Analysts believe that de-escalation is largely dependent on Beijing's moves, as it holds significant power in the dispute. The Philippines is encouraged to enhance its deterrence capabilities to increase the cost for China and reduce the likelihood of aggressive actions. Deutsche Welle 

Interfax reports Russia to restart direct passenger trains to North Korea in July.  Russia is set to resume direct passenger rail service to North Korea in July after a four-year halt prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The service will run from Russia’s Vladivostok to the North Korean port of Rason. This announcement was made by Oleg Kozhemyako, the governor of Primorsky Krai, during a festival of North Korean goods in Vladivostok. The rail service aims to facilitate travel and cultural exchange between the two countries. Following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions, Russia has strengthened its economic, security, and diplomatic ties with Asia and Africa. Reuters

‘Axis of impunity’: Putin-Kim ties demonstrate new trials for world.  Following the signing of a new comprehensive strategic partnership, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un showcased their closer ties by riding together in a Russian-made Aurus limousine. This public display reflects the countries’ deepening relationship since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Previously, Russia had cooperated with the international community to curb North Korea's missile and nuclear programs. Now, however, Moscow appears to support Pyongyang explicitly. Analysts see this shift as Putin's strategy to strengthen alliances against the U.S. and its allies, even at significant diplomatic and economic costs. The U.S. and South Korea have accused North Korea of supplying weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine; Pyongyang, in return, allegedly receives technological support from Russia, evidenced by North Korea's recent successful satellite launch. Analysts warn that this alignment strengthens an anti-U.S. bloc, with potential global implications. The relationship between Russia and North Korea is largely transactional, driven by mutual interests, and China, North Korea's traditional ally, maintains a strategic balance while closely watching these developments. Beijing's muted response to the agreement indicates its focus on stabilizing ties with the U.S. and other regions while sharing a broader anti-Western vision with Russia. Al Jazeera 

ANALYSIS-Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons. Xi Jinping’s approach to Russia is influenced by his father, Xi Zhongxun, experiences with Moscow. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have cultivated a strategic partnership marked by a conservative, anti-Western stance and personal rapport. Unlike the Cold War era, when ideological differences and leader disputes strained Sino-Soviet relations, today's partnership is more flexible and resilient. Xi’s father, a high-level CCP official, navigated the fluctuating Sino-Soviet relationship, experiencing collaboration and conflict. This history taught Xi the risks of both too close and too hostile ties with Russia. Consequently, Xi aims for a balanced relationship, supporting Russia while maintaining China’s economic interests and avoiding full entanglement. This approach, modulating between closeness and distance, is designed to create challenges for the West without fully committing China to Russia's conflicts. Foreign Affairs 

U.N. expert says Myanmar junta still obtaining weapons, funds overseas.  A U.N. report published Wednesday reveals that Myanmar’s ruling junta, despite international efforts to isolate it and a hindered ability to purchase new equipment, still manages to access money and weapons for its civil war against anti-coup forces. Myanmar has faced financial sanctions from Western countries since its 2021 coup, which have not prevented the military from conducting air strikes on insurgents and civilians. It has, however, lost control of significant territories. The U.N. special rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, reported that the junta imported $253 million worth of weapons and materials in the year prior to March 2024, a third less than the previous year, due to Singapore's efforts to block such support. Despite the reduction, Myanmar’s military has managed to procure $630 million in military equipment between 2022 and 2024. Thailand has partially compensated, with Thai companies transferring $120 million worth of military materials in the 2023 fiscal year. These materials include spare parts for helicopters used in airstrikes, such as the one on Pazigyi village in April 2023 that killed approximately 170 people, including 40 children. Reuters

AFRICA

Police open fire on demonstrators trying to storm Kenya parliament, several dead. Protests against a tax hike bill in Kenya turned violent Tuesday as demonstrators clashed with police outside Nairobi's parliament. At least five people were killed, and dozens injured. President William Ruto emphasized security, condemning the protests as hijacked by dangerous elements. The protests, calling for Ruto's resignation, spread to other cities. Police used tear gas and water cannons but faced overwhelming crowds. The bill, part of an effort to reduce Kenya's debt, has faced widespread opposition. Lawmakers managed to pass the bill before fleeing through a tunnel as protesters outmaneuvered police and poured in. The fire at the building was later put out. The U.S. and other countries expressed concern, urging restraint from all sides. Internet service in the country noticeably slowed in what NetBlocks called a “major disruption,” and at least one broadcaster issued a statement saying that “we have received threats from the authorities to shut us down.”  Ruto had been outside Nairobi attending an African Union retreat. He was expected to sign the finance bill into law this week. Reuters Associated Press 

Niger in mourning after 'terrorist armed group' killed 20 soldiers, one civilian. An armed group killed 20 soldiers and one civilian in western Niger on Tuesday, prompting three days of national mourning. The attack occurred near the village of Tassia in the Tillaberi region, where jihadist insurgents linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have been active. Several assailants were killed, and reinforcements are being deployed to pursue the remaining attackers. The defense ministry emphasized the security forces' determination to fight for sovereignty. Flags will be lowered to half-mast during the mourning period. France 24

Year After Failed Mutiny, Russia Tightens Grip on Wagner Units in Africa. Since the failed mutiny and death of Yevgeny Prigozhin last year, Russia has taken control of the Wagner Group's operations in Africa. The Russian Ministry of Defense now oversees Wagner’s mercenary activities under the new "Africa Corps" umbrella, deploying instructors to countries like Burkina Faso and Niger to support military juntas against jihadist insurgents. Russia's influence, aimed at exploiting resources and gaining geopolitical clout, has involved controversial forced-labor practices and military cooperation, including weapons supplies. Despite increased Russian presence, civil society groups report escalating abuses, including torture and arbitrary arrests by Wagner operatives. New York Times 

How Ukraine is combating Russia's influence in Africa. Ukraine is enhancing its diplomatic and strategic initiatives to curb Russia's influence in Africa. Historically, Russia has maintained strong ties with African nations, supporting them militarily and economically. In contrast, Ukraine had limited diplomatic presence in Africa before the war, with only 10 embassies compared to Russia's 43. Recently, Ukraine opened six new embassies and plans four more, emphasizing the continent's importance in building UN support. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has made multiple visits to African countries, and Ukraine has launched a Grain from Ukraine program, donating grain to nations like Sudan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Despite these efforts, Ukraine faces challenges in gaining substantial support, as many African countries remain non-aligned, viewing Russia’s war on Ukraine as distant and predominantly Europe. Deutsche Welle 

CYBER & TECH

China’s lunar probe touches down on Earth carrying world’s first samples from the far side of the moon. China's Chang'e 6 probe successfully returned to Earth on Tuesday afternoon with rare rock and soil samples from the far side of the moon, marking a global first. The probe landed in northern China’s Inner Mongolia region, and the mission was declared a complete success by Zhang Kejian, Director of the China National Space Administration. The samples, expected to include 2.5-million-year-old volcanic rock, will help scientists understand the geological differences between the moon's near side, visible from Earth, and the far side, which faces outer space. This mission is the first to bring back samples from the moon's far side, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping congratulated the Chang'e team, calling it a "landmark achievement." Beijing's moon program is part of its growing space competition with the U.S. and other countries. The probe, launched on May 3, traveled for 53 days, drilling and scooping samples. These samples may also contain material from meteorite impacts, offering clues about the early solar system. China plans to share the samples from the moon’s unexplored side with international scientists, although specific countries were not specified. Associated Press BBC The Guardian

Xi Jinping urges China’s scientists to advance innovation in hi-tech ‘battlefield.’  Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged his nation’s researchers to innovate in six key hi-tech areas, labeling them as critical in the struggle between superpowers, in order to secure the country's supply chain. Speaking Monday at a science and tech conference in Beijing, Xi emphasized breakthroughs in integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, basic software, advanced materials, scientific research instruments, and seed sources, describing the hi-tech sector as the "main battlefield" in technological and geopolitical competition. Despite significant achievements in areas like space and deep-sea exploration, Xi acknowledged China's weaknesses in "original innovation" and reliance on foreign technologies. He advocated for urgent advancements to gain a strategic edge in future tech development. This comes amid a tech war with the West, particularly the U.S., which has restricted China's access to advanced semiconductors and related technologies critical for AI development. In response to Washington’s moves, Xi has emphasized technological self-reliance and innovation to drive economic growth and compete globally. He also promised improved funding for basic research. South China Morning Post

National health lab of South Africa’s faces ransomware attack amid Mpox outbreak. South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) is grappling with a ransomware attack that has significantly disrupted the dissemination of lab results amid an Mpox outbreak. The attack, which started on Saturday, resulted in deleted system sections, including backup servers, necessitating a rebuild of affected parts. The NHLS operates 265 laboratories providing public healthcare testing across South Africa's nine provinces. External cybersecurity firms have been engaged to assist with recovery. The attack has heightened concerns due to the ongoing Mpox outbreak in South Africa, with three deaths and 16 confirmed cases. This incident follows a series of ransomware attacks on the nation’s government institutions, including a state-owned bank and the defense department. Globally, ransomware attacks have increasingly targeted healthcare systems, causing significant disruptions. Recently, the U.K. had to cancel thousands of operations due to a similar attack on a pathology services provider. The Record

The inside view of spyware’s 'dirty interference,' from two recent Pegasus victims.  Andrei Sannikov, a Belarusian opposition leader living in exile, is one of seven activists and journalists recently targeted by the Pegasus spyware, according to a report by Access Now. This powerful commercial spyware, often used by governments for crime and terrorism prevention, has increasingly been deployed against civil society figures globally. Sannikov, who has long opposed Belarusian President Lukashenko, discovered his phone was infected during a random security check at a conference. Despite concerns, he continues his activism, emphasizing the widespread, insidious reach of Pegasus and its impact on privacy and security. Another victim, journalist Evgeny Erlikh, also experienced spyware infection, highlighting the chilling effect Pegasus has on human rights and journalistic freedom. The NSO Group, which produces Pegasus, insists it only sells to vetted agencies, but the spyware's misuse against political and civil society figures raises significant ethical and legal concerns.  The Record

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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