Report for Wednesday, June 19, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Kim Jong Un Pledges to ‘Unconditionally’ Support Putin on War in Ukraine

Israel & Lebanon Move Closer to War

Moscow is paying top dollar to recruit Germans as spies to replace expelled Russians.

U.S. demands Beijing cease exports that support Russia’s war

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Europe’s Vote: A Former EU Prime Minister Assesses the ImpactThe Cipher Brief 

Opinion- A Dark Path Ahead for North Korea  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

White House spikes high-level meet with Israelis over Netanyahu complaints about lack of support.  The White House canceled a high-level U.S.-Israel meeting scheduled for Thursday in Washington, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video Tuesday accusing the U.S. of withholding military aid, Axios reported Tuesday night.  Axios also reported that President Biden's top advisers were “enraged.” U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, visiting Israel and Lebanon on a mission to dissuade Israel and Hezbollah from escalating their long-running conflict, delivered the message personally, telling Netanyahu he was out of line and the Washington meeting was off.  "This decision makes it clear that there are consequences for pulling such stunts," a U.S. official said, according to the news site.

In the video, Netanyahu is shown saying, “It is inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunition to Israel. Secretary Blinken assured me that the administration is working day and night to remove these bottlenecks. I certainly hope that’s the case. It should be the case.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the White House denied that the administration was blocking any military assistance, with the exception of one shipment of 1,800 to 2,000-pound bombs.  President Joe Biden paused the bomb delivery in early May as Israel was on the verge of moving into Rafah. Biden said the larger bombs were likely to inflict too many civilian casualties in a densely populated city. “Everything else is moving as it normally would move and, again, with the perspective of making sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against this multiplicity of challenges,” Blinken said.  Axios   New York Times   Politico  Reuters 

Israel hurtles toward war with Hezbollah.  Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned Tuesday in a post on X, "we are getting very close to the moment of deciding on changing the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Katz was responding to threats by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, conveyed in a menacing 9-minute video showing aerial views of Haifa, Israel’s third-largest city, which is close to the border with Lebanon.  "In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon will be severely beaten," Katz said. Israel's military later said that "operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field."   U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, in Beirut Tuesday, called for an "urgent" de-escalation.  "The conflict... between Israel and Hezbollah has gone on for long enough," Hochstein said. "It's in everyone's interest to resolve it quickly and diplomatically — that is both achievable and it is urgent."    The Guardian  France 24  Reuters   CNN 

U.N. report says Gaza war has deeply polluted the coastal territory.  The Gaza war has fouled soil, water and air and wrecked sanitation systems.  Explosive weapons have generated some 39 million tons of debris containing toxic chemicals and heavy metal, the U.N. Environment Programme said in a report issued Tuesday.  Water, sanitation, and hygiene systems are now almost entirely defunct, the report found, with Gaza's five wastewater treatment plants shut down. "It is my opinion that large areas of Gaza will not be recovered to a safe state within a generation, even with limitless finance and will," said Eoghan Darbyshire, a senior researcher at the U.K.-based nonprofit Conflict and Environment Observatory.  Reuters  

U.S. pier for Gaza aid Is failing and may be pulled out early.   The temporary pier built by the U.S. military off the Gaza coast at a cost of $230 million has largely failed in its mission, the New York Times reported Tuesday. The pier has been in usable shape for only about 10 days out of the month since it was first attached to the shoreline. The first truckloads of aid began moving ashore on May 17.  But since then, the pier has been damaged by rough seas and has needed repairs. The U.S. military said Friday that it had to move the pier again due to high seas. It could be reattached this week. But it could be removed for good as early as next month.  New York Times  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Kim Jong Un Pledges to ‘Unconditionally’ Support Putin on War in Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged unconditional support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine during talks with President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang, highlighting deepening ties amid U.S. concerns about arms supplies to Russia. “Today, we have prepared a new fundamental document that will form the basis of our relations for the long term,” Putin told Kim. “We highly appreciate your consistent and unwavering support for Russian policy, including in the Ukrainian direction.” The meeting included a formal ceremony and one-on-one talks. Putin’s trip came after Kim traveled to Russia in September, which, as satellite imagery later showed, was followed by a massive growth in arms transfers. North Korea possesses some of the largest stores of artillery and weapons that are interoperable with Soviet-era systems deployed on the front lines in Ukraine. Putin's visit marks his first trip to North Korea since 2000. The Kremlin leader was set to travel to Vietnam later on Wednesday. Bloomberg 

Drones in Ukraine are getting smarter to dodge Russia’s jamming signals. Ukrainian drone manufacturers are rapidly updating their technology to counteract Russian electronic warfare, which disrupts drone signals. Companies like ISR Defence and AeroDrone are enhancing navigation, antenna, and video feed systems to evade Russian jamming efforts. “Russian jamming is a crucial factor when making drones,” said Vadym Yunyk, ISR’s co-founder. He added that a manufacturer now has to be able to change drones without the usual level of research and development. This constant technological adaptation aims to maintain drone effectiveness in surveillance and strikes, which is critical for Ukraine's military operations. The evolving electronic warfare landscape emphasizes the importance of autonomous drones and adaptive communication technologies as both sides strive to gain an edge. One method to reduce drones’ reliance on satellite signals used in Ukraine is visual navigation. Another way for drones to avoid jamming is using a so-called pixel lock, where the drone locks onto a target and follows it without needing to be remotely guided by an operator. A company called AeroVironment uses a technology whereby a drone goes back to where it last had a connection when its communications are cut, rather than falling to Earth. By the spring of last year, Ukraine was losing some 10,000 drones a month due to Russian electronic warfare, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K. think tank. New rules in Ukraine this month require any drone vendor that wants to sell directly to Ukraine to prove they can withstand jamming and fly without satellite communication. The Russians and Ukrainians are locked in a race to stay ahead. “It’s a constant cat-and-mouse game,” said Trace Stevenson, AeroVironment’s general manager of un crewed systems. The Wall Street Journal 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 18, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Russian-North Korean cooperation in a North Korean newspaper, highlighting shared struggles against the West. Following Putin's visit to North Korea, Western officials warned about the dangers of increased cooperation between authoritarian regimes. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil depots in Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai with Neptune missiles, targeting Russian territory for the second time. The Russian government is charging Ukrainian servicemen with crimes in absentia, challenging Ukrainian sovereignty. Founder of the Rybar Telegram Channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, criticized Russia's war efforts and acknowledged the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy. Putin continues to groom Russian military personnel for positions in the Russian government through the Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program. Russian occupation officials continue their efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces marginally advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

Kazakh Opposition Activist Shot In Kyiv. Kazakh opposition activist and journalist Aidos Sadyqov was shot in Kyiv on Tuesday by an unknown assailant. His wife, Natalya Sadyqova, confirmed the attack on Facebook, linking it to their journalistic activities. Sadyqov, who criticized Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev's pro-Russian policies, is in serious condition following surgery. The couple, exiled from Kazakhstan and granted political asylum in Ukraine, runs the Base YouTube channel focusing on Kazakh corruption and Russian aggression. RFE/RL

Fire at drone-hit Russian oil depot rages for second day, emergency services say. A fire at an oil depot in Azov, located in Russia’s southern Rostov region, has burned for over 24 hours, local authorities said Wednesday. A Ukrainian intelligence source said the attack was carried out Tuesday by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The attack targeted the Azovskaya and Azovnefteprodukt depots, with 22 fuel tanks. Kyiv targets Russia's infrastructure to disrupt its military efforts. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russian drone attack on Lviv region injures one, Ukraine official says. A Russian drone attack on Lviv, Ukraine, injured a 70-year-old man and damaged a residential building, Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said Wednesday. The attack in Malekhiv also shattered windows in other buildings. Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytskyi reported that Ukraine's air defenses destroyed all five Russian drones, with debris causing the damage. Reuters 

Ukrainian Prosecutor Says Russian Troops Beheaded Ukrainian Soldier. Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Andriy Kostin say that Russian troops beheaded a Ukrainian soldier in the eastern Donetsk region. The Ukrainian military spotted the soldier's head on a damaged armored car during aerial reconnaissance. The United Nations has documented six extrajudicial executions of Ukrainian POWs between February and July 2023. RFE/RL 

Zelensky says striking inside Russia ‘works, just as we expected.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the success of strikes inside Russia using Western-supplied weapons, highlighting their importance in targeting "Russian terrorists' positions and launchers near the border." In his Tuesday address, he noted that the strikes, using HIMARS and GMLRS rockets permitted by the U.S. since May, are working as expected. Zelensky urged the U.S. to lift restrictions on long-range strikes to protect Ukrainian lives. However, President Joe Biden confirmed that Kyiv is not authorized to use U.S.-supplied weapons for deep strikes inside Russia. Kyiv Independent 

‘A Big Step Back’: In Ukraine, Concerns Mount Over Narrowing Press Freedoms. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian journalists have faced increasing restrictions and pressure from the Ukrainian government, raising concerns about press freedom. These measures extend beyond necessary wartime security, with Ukraine’s domestic spy agency surveilling journalists and the government exerting political pressure on media outlets. Despite Zelensky's public disapproval of press restrictions, recent incidents, such as a state news agency blacklisting opposition figures, highlight efforts to control media narratives. This situation has sparked criticism from journalists and international observers, who argue that maintaining democratic media practices is crucial, even during war. New York Times

SBU: Russian collaborator accused of spying on Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut sentenced to 15 years in prison. A Russian collaborator who reportedly spied on Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut in the spring of 2023 has been sentenced to 15 years in prison, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Tuesday. The man, from Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, provided geolocations to Russian agents for planning attacks. He was detained in May 2023 while conducting reconnaissance. Convicted of treason under martial law, the Donetsk regional prosecutor's office oversaw the investigation. Kyiv Independent 

EPP’s new Hungarian members oppose sending weapons to Ukraine. Hungarian opposition figure Péter Magyar, a newly elected member of the European Parliament, announced that while he supports Ukraine's right to defend its territory, Hungary will not send troops or weapons, endorsing the Budapest government’s position. ‘’We will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine from Hungary. You know the sensitive situation of Hungary in that war," Magyar told journalists after the European People’s Party voted to accept the MEPs, who hail from Magyar's Tisza party, as members. Senior EPP figures required new MEPs to support Ukraine, but Magyar's cautious stance reflects Hungary's political landscape and relations with Russia. An EPP spokesperson said: "Everything he says in relation to Ukraine and the war, the (Prime Minister Viktor) Orbán propaganda machine uses against him. So it is very clear why he is prudent about that." Politico Kyiv Independent 

Media: More than 10,000 Russian soldiers prosecuted for refusing to fight in Ukraine. An investigation by Mediazona revealed Tuesday that over 10,000 Russian soldiers have been prosecuted for refusing to fight in Ukraine since September 2022. These include unauthorized abandonment, failure to comply with orders, and desertion. Most of the accused have been sentenced. Despite these prosecutions, Russia continues to recruit about 30,000 soldiers monthly to bolster its war efforts. The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade reported intensified Russian attacks in Luhansk Oblast. "The enemy is throwing entire platoons and companies of personnel at the assaults of our positions," the 3rd Assault Brigade wrote. "Their rapid liquidation is compensated by the replenishment of manpower in the amount of 250-400 soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation every week." Kyiv Independent 

Russian occupation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant costs Ukraine over $5 billion. Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has cost Ukraine over $5 billion, Energoatom's acting head, Petro Kotin, said on Tuesday. Since the plant's occupation in March 2022, monthly losses have averaged $148 million. The occupation has increased nuclear safety risks and led to accusations of Russia using the plant for drone attacks. The International Atomic Energy Agency has monitored the plant since September 2022 but lacks full access. Kyiv Independent

Russia scours China for second-hand machine tools. Russia is covertly sourcing second-hand machine tools from China through shadowy networks to circumvent Western sanctions and boost arms production. Moscow uses opaque companies like AMG to procure precision machinery for defense work. Research by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, a Washington-based think-tank that identified the shadow trade, revealed this strategy, indicating exaggerated claims about Russia's in-house production capabilities. Key suppliers include UAE-based Amegino and Chinese-based ELE Technology. Despite sanctions, Russian companies continue to acquire high-end tools, highlighting gaps in compliance within the second-hand market. Japan and other G7 countries are working to strengthen measures against such circumventions. Financial Times

AMERICAS

Washington’s uncertain plan to decouple its military supplies from China. The U.S. is taking measures to reduce its dependence on China for its defense industry amid deteriorating relations. China plays a crucial role in global manufacturing, including key components for advanced U.S. weapons, and removing Chinese parts from the international arms supply chain would severely impact arms manufacturers worldwide, potentially halting production of crucial military equipment like the F-35 fighter jets and causing shortages in various essential components. Beijing also controls significant portions of the global supply of rare earth metals and critical minerals, some of which are essential for high-performance military technologies. Washington aims to mitigate this dependency by relocating production to friendlier countries, investing in domestic manufacturing and STEM education, industrial standardization, and fostering partnerships, notably with Australia, to develop alternative sources. China, meanwhile, faces its own vulnerabilities, particularly in semiconductor chips, where it remains dependent on imports. The U.S. has restricted China's access to advanced chips and pushed allies to follow suit, complicating China's efforts to achieve self-reliance. South China Morning Post

Boeing CEO lambasted in U.S. Senate hearing, apologizes for safety issues. U.S. senators harshly criticized Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun during a hearing on Tuesday, focusing on the company's safety record and his inflated compensation. Calhoun apologized to families affected by the two 737 MAX crashes, which killed a combined 346 people in 2018 and 2019, and took responsibility for a January mid-air emergency, but defended his actions and highlighted improvements in safety measures. Lawmakers questioned his decision to retire by year-end instead of resigning immediately, with Senator Josh Hawley accusing Calhoun of prioritizing profits over safety, referencing his $32.8 million compensation in 2023. The hearing underscored Boeing's damaged safety reputation, with calls for the U.S. Justice Department to prosecute the company. The DOJ has until July 7 to decide whether or not to pursue charges against Boeing. The company’s chief engineer, Howard McKenzie, downplayed concerns about incorrectly tightened fasteners on 787 jets, asserting initial analyses deemed them safe, but a new whistleblower revealed systemic safety issues at Boeing’s 737 factory, corroborating previous concerns. Boeing stated it is reviewing these new claims and has significantly increased inspections and the size of its quality team since 2019. The scrutiny of Boeing has intensified following the January incident, with the National Transportation Safety Board and the Justice Department launching investigations. Reuters BBC CNBC CNN  

Scientist justifies rejection of Covid-19 lab leak theory to U.S. Senate panel. Renowned virologist Robert Garry again defended his stance on the origins of Covid-19 during a U.S. Senate homeland security committee hearing on Tuesday, refuting Republican accusations of intentionally altering or hiding conclusions. Garry, co-author of a 2020 Nature Medicine article rejecting the lab leak theory, asserted that he followed the scientific method, and concluded the virus likely originated from a natural spillover at the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, China. Senator Rand Paul accused Garry and other scientists of dismissing the lab leak theory publicly despite private doubts, prompting Garry to explain that while he initially considered multiple pathways, evidence increasingly pointed to natural transmission. The hearing featured scientists with differing views on Covid-19’s origins, some of whom acknowledged that a lab-related incident cannot be ruled out. The debate highlighted the challenges in definitively determining the virus's origins, compounded by China's lack of transparency. Witnesses suggested actions for Congress, including increased oversight of privately funded research and strengthening the U.S. bio-surveillance system. A declassified report from 2023 indicated that the Department of Energy and the FBI support the lab leak theory with varying degrees of confidence. South China Morning Post

U.S.’s Tibet policy bill to strain tensions with China, ‘likely to be counterproductive.’ A new Tibet policy bill, approved by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, is expected to heighten tensions with China. The Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act aims to support Tibet and combat China's "disinformation" about the region. The bill refutes China's historical claims over Tibet and encourages dialogue between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama. The bill, which is likely to be signed into law by President Joe Biden, asserts that Beijing's actions suppress Tibetan culture, religion, and way of life, representing a clear stance by Washington against the Chinese Communist Party's control over Tibet. Experts believe that the legislation will further strain U.S.-China relations, as Beijing views Tibet as an integral part of China. China's foreign ministry on Tuesday warned the U.S. against the bill, emphasizing China's resolve to defend its sovereignty. The U.S. move is seen by some analysts as symbolic, with no concrete actions but rather a challenge to China's propaganda. South China Morning Post 

Brazil enters competition with China on rare earths industry.  Brazil aims to establish a robust rare earths industry, seeking to reduce global dependency on China, which processes around 90% of the global supply of rare earths. Brazil has advantages such as low labor costs, clean energy, established regulations, and proximity to markets, including Latin America's first magnet plant. However, challenges include low rare earths prices, technical difficulties, and cautious lenders. Brazil, which holds the world's third-largest, rare-earth reserves, started commercial production at its first rare earths mine this year. The U.S. and its allies aim to create a separate rare earth supply chain by 2027, and the Brazilian government has launched a 1 billion reais ($194.53 million) fund for strategic minerals projects, seeking to build an industry to transform these minerals into alloys for various applications. Reuters

U.N. reports increasing number of Haitians fleeing gang violence.  The ongoing crisis in Haiti, marked by escalating violence and severe humanitarian impacts, has led to a significant increase in displaced people, now numbering 578,074 compared to 362,551 in early March, according to a report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Philippe Branchat, head of IOM, highlighted that the continuous violence, which peaked in February, is driving more Haitians to flee their homes multiple times. Haiti, with a population of about 10 million, has been struggling with extreme gang violence for months, particularly in the capital. The report attributes the rise in displaced persons mainly to the exodus from Port-au-Prince to other provinces, which are ill-equipped to support the influx. France 24 

U.S. pressures Japan, Netherlands to restrict more chip making equipment to China. A U.S. official, Alan Estevez, is heading to Japan after meeting with Dutch officials to urge allies to further restrict China's access to advanced semiconductor technology, building on a 2023 agreement. China opposes these actions, claiming they hinder global semiconductor development. The U.S. first imposed restrictions in 2022 on advanced chips and equipment, which Japan and the Netherlands have also adopted. The U.S. aims to expand these controls, targeting additional Chinese factories. Despite these efforts, companies like ASML continue servicing existing equipment in China, navigating around specific U.S. restrictions. The ongoing diplomatic and regulatory maneuvers highlight the intense geopolitical competition over semiconductor technology.  Reuters 

EUROPE

NATO worried Russia may support North Korea's missile and nuclear programs.   NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a joint press briefing with Secretary of State Antony Blinken Tuesday that NATO is concerned about the possibility that Russia could give North Korea support for its missile and nuclear programs.  Stoltenberg said that Russia's war in Ukraine was being propped up by China, North Korea and Iran, who have a common interest in seeing the Western alliance fail.  Stoltenberg said the Moscow-Pyongyang alliance and Beijing’s support for Moscow’s war economy showed how security challenges in Europe were linked to Asia.  Next month, NATO will hold a summit in Washington to cement partnerships with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.  Blinken said that China provided 70 percent of Russia's machine tools and 90 percent of microelectronics.  This support, Blinken said, has enabled Russia to “keep the war machine going.... So that has to stop," Blinken said. China “can’t on the one hand say it wants better relations with Europe while eat the same time fueling the biggest security threat since the Cold War,” Blinken said.  “This is what’s keeping the war going.”  Reuters  Radio Free Europe   

Blinken names China, Iran, North Korea as 'countries of concern' due to support of Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg identified China, Iran, and North Korea as significant concerns due to their support for Russia's war economy. At a joint press conference on June 18, Blinken condemned North Korea and Iran for supplying munitions to Russia and urged China to stop supporting Russia's defense-industrial base. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded by accusing NATO of causing the conflict in Ukraine and deflecting blame onto China. Blinken and Stoltenberg also highlighted the importance of strengthening Indo-Pacific partnerships, with Blinken drawing parallels between the situation in Ukraine and potential future conflicts in East Asia. RFE/RL

Germany says Moscow is paying top dollar to recruit Germans as spies to replace expelled Russians.  The German BfV (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, for Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) said Tuesday Russia is using blackmail and cash to pay Germans to spy after Europe expelled 600 Russian intelligence agents using diplomatic cover.  "Russia is working hard to compensate for the German government's reduction in the number of Russian agents in Germany,"  BfV chief Thomas Haldenwang told a news conference as he presented the agency’s annual report. For example, the report said, Russia paid two Germans 400,000 euros apiece. "The agent fees show that Russia's services continue to have enormous financial resources with which to pursue their intelligence goals," the report said.  Reuters  

Germany ‘tense’, country’s interior minister says. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said Tuesday that Germany’s democracy is strong, but its security remains tense.  At a press conference, Faeser said that Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to “call the European peace order into question” and that the war in Gaza is “unfortunately having an impact” on Germany.  She said Germany faced threats from far-right elements within German society, Islamist extremism and increasing espionage and cyber-attacks by Russia and China.  Euronews Deutsche Welle The Guardian 

French court orders arms trade show to allow Israeli arms makers to exhibit. The Paris Commerce Tribunal said Tuesday the ban of 74 Israeli exhibitors from the Eurosatory trade show was "discriminatory," a lawyer said. The show’s organizers said that French authorities had banned Israeli firms. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu told French media last month that Israeli weapons manufacturers and defense firms shouldn’t be allowed at the expo because Israel ignored President Emmanuel Macron's call to end the fighting in Rafah. France 24 

Dutch PM Rutte expected to succeed Stoltenberg as NATO chief.  Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO chief, Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported Tuesday.  The way was cleared for Rutte to take the job after Hungary and Slovakia backed him. He has proved a strong ally of Kyiv and critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday called Rutte’s move to NATO “good news.” Reuters  

British spy agency accused of issuing fake warning against Chinese spy.  The Investigatory Powers Tribunal in London heard testimony Monday that Barry Gardiner, a former Labour Party politician, said in a text that he had heard that the UK’s domestic spy agency MI5 may have issued a rare alert notice in 2022 about an alleged Chinese agent as a distraction from the so-called Partygate scandal, in which then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was accused of flouting Covid rules. No evidence was provided to back the allegations. The hearing will continue on Tuesday.  CNN

Estonian court sentences Russian professor to six years for spying for Moscow. Vyacheslav Morozov, a Russian citizen and former professor of EU-Russia studies at Estonia’s University of Tartu, was sentenced to six years and three months in prison for stealing sensitive Estonian military information for Moscow.  Morozov was convicted of sending information to Russia’s military intelligence service. The court said the professor had been cooperating with Moscow “for a long time.”  Politico   

Serb’s scheme to spirit away Russian technology smuggler revealed.   Italian prosecutors have charged that Serb businessman Srdjan Lolic went to the North Pole in April 2023 as part of a scheme to help Russian businessman Artyom Uss, son of aRussian governor, escape from house arrest in Milan and extradition proceedings launched by the Justice Department. Uss was indicted by the U.S.in September 2022 on charges of smuggling military technology to Russia. Radio Free Europe tells the convoluted tale.  Radio Free Europe 

 Russian court sentences American soldier to nearly 4 years in penal colony for death threats, theft.   U.S. Army staff sergeant Gordon Black was sentenced to three years and nine months in a Russian penal colony for theft and making death threats, RIA Novosti reported Wednesday.  Black wasarrested in May in Vladivostok after he allegedly stole 10,000 rubles ($112) from a Russian woman believed to be his girlfriend. Black was accused of threatening to kill the woman during a heated exchange, Russian state news agency TASS previously reported.  Black denied making death threats but said that he took and returned the money the next day.  Kyiv Independent 

Europe gives China a taste of its own trade medicine. The European Union is leveraging the threat of tariffs to compel Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers to set up joint ventures in Europe, sharing technology with European counterparts. This shift in trade strategy aims to bolster Europe's EV industry and counteract falling behind Chinese advancements. Major partnerships like Stellantis with Leapmotor and EBRO-EV with Chery illustrate the trend. This approach mirrors China’s past tactics of enforced technology transfers, acknowledging China's current technological lead and Europe's need for strategic collaboration to compete effectively. Politico 

Canada hits Russia with new sanctions for Navalny's death, human rights violations. Canada imposed sanctions Tuesday on 13 Russian officials for their involvement in the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and ongoing human rights violations. Navalny, a key opponent of Putin, died in a penal colony on February 16. The sanctions target officials in Russia's investigative and penitentiary services.  As we are living in a period of multiple interconnected crises, it is important to keep the focus on the efforts of Russians in their fight for basic rights and freedom," Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said. Similar sanctions were introduced by the European Union on May 27. Kyiv Independent 

European human rights court rules against Russian 'undesirable organizations' law. The European Court of Human Rights ruled Tuesday that Russia's law labeling foreign organizations as "undesirable" and prosecuting individuals involved in these groups violates the European Convention on Human Rights. The law, in place since 2015, targets perceived opponents of Putin's regime. The ECHR found the law imprecise, infringing on freedoms of assembly, association, and expression. Several organizations, including the Andrey Rylkov Foundation, filed the case, challenging their "undesirable" classification. Kyiv Independent

Leading chatbots are spreading Russian propaganda. Leading AI chatbots are spreading Russian propaganda, according to a NewsGuard report shared with Axios. The study found that when prompted with narratives created by John Mark Dougan, an American fugitive who, according to the New York Times, is allegedly spreading misinformation from Moscow, the chatbots disseminated disinformation 32% of the time. The research comes as people are using chatbots more frequently to find reliable information, especially during a pivotal election year. NewsGuard reportedly tested 57 prompts on 10 chatbots, and found they spread false reports about wiretaps at Mar-a-Lago and a non-existent Ukrainian troll factory.  Axios Kyiv Independent  NY Times

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trauma from Red Sea attacks adds to seafarer shortage.  ​​Attacks by Yemen's Houthi in the Red Sea are worsening the global seafarer shortage. Greek marine engineer Costas Rassias and others refuse to sail through these dangerous waters. Since November, over 70 attacks have occurred, reducing container ship sailings by 78% in May. Seafarers face trauma and stress, leading many to consider quitting. Armed guards are common on ships, but crews lack military training. Maritime unions and companies increasingly avoid the Red Sea, prioritizing seafarer safety. The industry already struggles with a shortage, needing 18,000 new officers annually to meet demand. Over 80% of global trade is shipped by sea and an estimated 1.8 million seafarers service ships. Thousands of higher-level officers are needed to service the 80,000-strong ocean-going fleet. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Russia's Putin, North Korea's Kim sign mutual defense pact. The leaders of North Korea and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement in Pyongyang, pledging mutual defense if either country is attacked. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un described this new partnership as an "alliance," while Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the agreement's defensive nature. This partnership is expected to reshape their relations, especially as both nations face international isolation. The U.S. and its allies have expressed concern over the growing military ties, fearing potential aid to North Korea's banned missile and nuclear programs. China, North Korea's main ally, has reacted mutedly. Kim voiced strong support for Russia's actions, including its war in Ukraine, while Putin condemned U.S. policies. This agreement signifies a deepening alliance, aiming to counter U.S. influence and promote a multipolar world order.  Reuters

North Korea and Russia trade record number of delegations.  North Korea and Russia have significantly increased their diplomatic and economic exchanges in recent months, culminating in Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea, his first in 24 years. Since July 2023, the two countries have conducted over two dozen high-level exchanges, including 18 this year alone, marking a record number of such visits. This surge in interactions reflects the strengthening ties between the two nations.  Reuters

How Putin and Kim Stand to Gain from a Rare Visit That’s Troubling the West.  Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in nearly 24 years, meeting with Kim Jong Un to solidify a long-term partnership amid international isolation. They announced a comprehensive agreement focusing on military cooperation and mutual support, with Kim expressing unwavering support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The visit showcased strong symbolic gestures of friendship, including a lavish welcome and mutual gifts. This partnership, involving exchanges of food, oil, weapons, and military technology, aims to bolster both nations' capabilities. The growing military cooperation has raised concerns in Seoul and Washington, fearing further destabilization and enhanced North Korean missile and nuclear threats. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to circumvent sanctions and strengthen ties with Pyongyang, while North Korea aims to boost its military and economic resilience through this alliance. Wall Street Journal 

Taiwan’s plan to obtain military drones unlikely to facilitate Washington’s ‘hellscape’ against Chinese invasion. Taiwan plans to acquire nearly 1,000 AI-equipped military drones to enhance its asymmetric warfare capabilities against the growing threats from China. Experts, however, warn that achieving a fully operational fleet to carry out the U.S.-proposed "hellscape" strategy, aimed at countering potential Chinese military attacks in the Taiwan Strait, remains challenging in the near future. The Taiwanese defense ministry's report outlines the procurement of 968 attack and surveillance drones from the government-funded Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology and private contractors. Analysts caution that it will take time for the drones, which have capabilities of autonomous return, dynamic target tracking, and path planning, to become fully operational. The legislature’s foreign relations and defense committee head Wang Ting-yu emphasized the need for integration with military units for effective deployment. The "hellscape" strategy, proposed by U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo, envisions using a swarm of drones to delay a mainland attack and give the U.S. time to respond. However, this strategy requires advanced AI applications and thousands of drones, which is still in the planning stages. Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo acknowledged the current shortage of drones and emphasized the need for increased numbers and strategic coordination with the US. South China Morning Post 

Manila says peace impossible unless Beijing matches its words to actions in South China Sea. The Philippine foreign ministry on Wednesday urged China to avoid maneuvers that endanger sailors and vessels in the hotly contested South China Sea, emphasizing the fact that peace remains unattainable if China's actions contradict its statements. This call followed an incident on June 17, where a Philippine navy sailor was severely injured and vessels were damaged during a resupply mission, which the Philippine military described as an "intentional high-speed ramming" by the Chinese coast guard. Beijing denied the accusations, claiming that the Philippine vessel approached dangerously, prompting control measures. The injured sailor was awarded the Wounded Personnel Medal and is recovering in a hospital. The event has drawn condemnation from other nations, such as the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. Reuters

In South China Sea dispute, Philippines' bolder hand tests Beijing. In February 2023, senior Philippine officials faced a decision on whether to publicize Chinese military aggression in the South China Sea after China allegedly pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine ship. National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano opted to release the photos, marking a pivotal moment in Manila's strategy to highlight the escalating territorial dispute. This move, part of a broader transparency policy, aimed to impose reputational costs on Beijing and build international support for the Philippines. The policy shift, supported by embedding foreign journalists and deepening military ties with the U.S., constrained China's ability to escalate conflicts but increased the risk of economic retaliation. The growing tension in the South China Sea involves aggressive maneuvers by Chinese vessels, raising concerns about potential military confrontations. The Philippines' approach, contrasting with the more cautious strategies of neighboring countries, has drawn international attention and support while provoking irritation from China.  Reuters

U.S. demands China cease exports that support Russia’s war.  The Biden administration has suggested potential further actions aimed at ceasing Chinese exports that support Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China in April that ensuring transatlantic security is a core U.S. interest and that further steps may be taken if Beijing continues its backing of Moscow’s defense industrial base. Chinese companies have been supplying Russia with critical materials and technologies, filling gaps caused by Western sanctions. Republican Senator Tom Cotton and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines noted China's provision of dual-use materials like nitrocellulose, which supports Russia's defense industry without directly supplying lethal weapons. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese companies involved in this support, urging allies in the Group of 7 and NATO to take similar actions. Blinken emphasized that China’s provision of machine tools and microelectronics enables Russia to sustain its war efforts. Despite Western sanctions, trade between China and Russia has surged, solidifying their partnership. South China Morning Post 

China points finger at U.S. for "malign intention" to undermine COVID vaccines. The Chinese embassy in the Philippines has accused the U.S. military of "hypocrisy, malign intention, and double standards" following a recently published report on a clandestine U.S. campaign to undermine confidence in Chinese vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The comments were a response to a Reuters investigation revealing that the U.S. military used fake internet accounts to pose as Filipinos and spread doubts about the safety and efficacy of China's Sinovac vaccine. A Chinese embassy spokesperson criticized the U.S. military for allegedly harming the fundamental human rights of Filipinos by discrediting China's life-saving aid. The American Embassy in Manila referred inquiries to the Department of Defense, where a senior official confirmed the use of secret propaganda against China's vaccine but did not provide specifics. A Pentagon spokeswoman stated that the U.S. military employs various platforms, including social media, to counteract malign influences from China, which she accused of running a disinformation campaign blaming the U.S. for the spread of COVID-19. Reuters

Philippines demands answers over U.S. anti-vax report, and potential dispute could benefit China.  A contentious report revealing an alleged U.S. military campaign to undermine confidence in China's Sinovac vaccine in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked calls for an investigation by Filipino officials. The report, which claims the U.S. used fake social media accounts to discredit the Chinese vaccine, could potentially benefit Beijing amid its intensifying competition with Washington for regional influence. Filipino officials, including Albert Domingo from the Department of Health and Representative France Castro, have demanded an inquiry, emphasizing the campaign's negative impact on public health and vaccine trust. While some officials expressed doubts about the report, others condemned any efforts that could lead to public distrust in immunization. The report, if confirmed, could damage Filipinos' trust in the US, a concern for analysts who believe that it benefits China by creating doubt about Washington’s credibility. Security analyst Chester Cabalza described the situation as part of the broader cognitive warfare between the US and China, with Manila caught in the middle. Geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill, however, suggested that China’s own disinformation schemes in the Philippines, including efforts to erode state capacity, are more dangerous than the U.S. campaign. South China Morning Post 

China warns U.S. lawmakers not to visit Dalai Lama in India. Beijing has expressed its strong disapproval of a U.S. congressional delegation’s Tuesday visit to Dharamshala, India to meet with the Dalai Lama, the banished Tibetan spiritual leader. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian demanded that Washington respect its commitment to recognize Tibet as part of China and avoid any contact with the Dalai Lama, whom China views as a political exile involved in anti-China separatist activities. Beijing also urged President Joe Biden not to support the recently passed Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act, which challenges China’s control over the region. The bipartisan delegation, including Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Michael McCaul, plans to discuss the legislation with the Dalai Lama, which could snarl up Biden’s attempts to stabilize U.S.-China relations. No sitting U.S. president has met with the Dalai Lama since 2016. South China Morning Post

Top former Trump official suggests deploying Marines to Pacific, strengthening allies’ militaries. Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, has called for the deployment of the “entire” Marine Corps to the Pacific to counter China’s growing military power. In a Foreign Affairs op-ed, O’Brien suggested reallocating resources from other regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa, to the Pacific. He also criticized the current state of American bases in the Pacific, highlighting inadequate missile defenses and fighter jet protection. O’Brien, outlined a potential national security policy for a second Trump term, emphasizing the need for a strong stance against China. He proposed building up the military capabilities of U.S. Pacific allies, moving an aircraft carrier from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and sending refurbished Navy ships to the Philippines. He also recommended that Congress support the militaries of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam with grants, loans, and weapons transfers. O’Brien advocated for testing new nuclear weapons, developing hypersonic missiles, improving Pentagon acquisition systems, and collaborating with innovative defense suppliers. Politico

AFRICA

Niger armed group takes responsibility for assault on China-funded pipeline, threatens more. The Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL), an armed group opposed to Niger's ruling junta, attacked and disabled a part of the nation's PetroChina-funded crude oil pipeline on Sunday night. The pipeline, with a capacity of 90,000 barrels per day, links Niger's Agadem oil field to Benin's coast, covering a distance of nearly 2,000 kilometers. The attack aimed to pressure Niger's Chinese partners to cancel a $400 million export deal with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). The FPL, formed after Niger's July 2023 coup, threatened to “paralyze” all oil assets if their demands are not met. Neither Niger's government, PetroChina, CNPC, nor the pipeline operator responded to requests for comment. This incident exacerbates the crisis surrounding the pipeline, which Niger had shut down last Thursday due to a border dispute with Benin. Additionally, six soldiers guarding the pipeline were killed in an attack by unidentified assailants in the Dosso region. No group has claimed responsibility for this first attack on security forces protecting the pipeline, although jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State are active in the area. Reuters 

Massive blaze at military ammunition depot in Chad triggers explosions, one killed.  A fire at a military ammunition depot in Chad's capital of N'Djamena caused a series of explosions on Tuesday night, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Koulamallah Abderaman. Witnesses reported at least one person killed and several wounded. A resident near the depot saw three injured people, two of whom were taken to the hospital on motorbikes. Media images showed spent artillery shells in people's homes. Another resident mentioned that a shopkeeper neighbor was killed by a shell. Moustapha Adoum Mahamat, another resident, described the house shaking violently, a large blaze at the military camp, and artillery flying overhead. Explosions and flames were observed for about an hour, spreading smoke around the city. The fire occurred a few kilometers from Chad's main international airport, which was not affected. Reuters Al Jazeera BBC

CYBER & TECH

Two astronauts extend stay again as Boeing, NASA work out about spacecraft issues. Two veteran astronauts, Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, will extend their stay on the International Space Station (ISS) due to issues with the Boeing-built Starliner spacecraft that brought them to orbit. Originally scheduled for a week-long visit starting June 6, their return is now delayed to June 26, pushed from earlier projections of June 18 and June 22. Since their launch, the astronauts have encountered problems with the Starliner, including malfunctioning thrusters and helium leaks. Boeing and NASA are studying these issues while the spacecraft remains docked at the ISS, as the service module causing these problems won't return to Earth with the capsule. NASA's Commercial Crew Program manager, Steve Stich, emphasized the importance of resolving these issues while ensuring the astronauts' safe return. CNN Washington Post Space

China’s Chang’e-6 probe lifts off from the moon’s far side carrying rock samples. China's Chang’e-6 ascent vehicle successfully lifted off from the far side of the moon, carrying up to 2kg of lunar rock samples from the oldest impact basin. This marked the first time a spacecraft has launched from the moon’s far side. The vehicle will rendezvous with the orbiter, transfer the samples to a return capsule, and then head back to Earth, aiming to land in Inner Mongolia. The mission, which included displaying a Chinese flag and leaving a mark on the lunar surface, has been praised by the European Space Agency for its success. The Chang’e-6's objective is to study the far side of the moon, which remains largely unexplored, to understand the differences between the moon's two faces, and to gather insights about the early solar system. South China Morning Post

NATO reveals tech companies to receive innovation funding. A consortium of NATO allies has announced the first group of companies to receive funding from its one-billion-euro ($1.1 billion) innovation fund. Launched in the summer of 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the NATO Innovation Fund aims to invest in technologies to enhance defense capabilities. Supported by 24 of NATO's 32 member states, the fund has invested in four European tech companies to address challenges in defense, security, and resilience. The recipients include: Fractile, a London-based chipmaker improving the speed of large language models like ChatGPT; ARX Robotics from Germany, which designs unmanned robots for various tasks, including heavy lifting and surveillance; iCOMAT, a British company manufacturing lighter materials for vehicles; and Space Forge, a Welsh company building semiconductors in orbit using space conditions like microgravity and vacuum. The fund has also collaborated with venture capital firms Alpine Space Ventures, OTB Ventures, Join Capital, and Vsquared Ventures to support further deep tech investments in Europe. Reuters

Chinese drone maker DJI denounces U.S. bill to ban products, stresses devotion to data security. Chinese drone maker DJI has blasted a proposed U.S. bill that would forbid the sale of its products in the U.S., calling it "baseless allegations and xenophobic fear." The bill, included in the National Defense Authorization Act passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, aims to limit future sales of DJI drones by adding the company to the Federal Communication Commission’s Covered List, which would prevent its drones from using U.S. communications infrastructure. The bill now moves to the Senate for amendments and final approval before potentially being signed into law by President Joe Biden. DJI argued that the bill could harm public safety as well as the American economy, emphasizing its commitment to user data security. The company stated that its data security practices have been validated by U.S. federal agencies and independent firms since 2017. DJI highlighted its role in supporting small businesses across various industries in the U.S. and reiterated that it gives users full control over their data. South China Morning Post

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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