Report for Wednesday, June 12, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES

Hezbollah launches rocket attack on Israel following death of senior Hezbollah commander

U.S. will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system after Kyiv’s desperate calls for air defenses

U.S. Federal Law Enforcement arrests 8 Tajiks with suspected ISIS-K ties

U.S. intelligence assesses Houthis in Yemen in talks to provide weapons to Al-Shabaab in Somalia, officials say

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How a U.S.-Saudi Deal Could Reshape the Middle East.  The Cipher Brief spoke about the possible deal with Gary Grappo, a former U.S. Ambassador to Oman and Deputy Chief of Mission in Saudi Arabia, and Norman Roule, a Cipher Brief expert who served as National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence   The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Hezbollah says massive rocket salvo to Israel's north 'most extensive since war started.' Sources from Lebanon’s Hezbollah on Wednesday informed Haaretz that the group has launched its most extensive attack on northern Israel since the conflict began. The group claimed to have targeted several sites in the north with various types of rockets, launching weapons towards the Amiad camp, the Meron air traffic control base, and the facilities of the Plasan armored vehicle manufacturer in Kibbutz Sasa. Several places in northern Israel caught fire due to falling projectiles, and sirens were heard throughout the area. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) estimate that around 100 rockets were fired toward Israel. Iran-backed Hezbollah reported that the barrage was in retaliation for Israel’s killings of top commander Taleb Abdullah and three other operatives last night in the south of Lebanon. Haaretz Times of Israel  Reuters 

Israeli strike on south Lebanon kills senior Hezbollah commander.  Hezbollah said Tuesday that one of its highest-ranking commanders –Taleb Abdallah, also known as Abu Taleb – was killed late Tuesday by an Israeli strike on the village of Jouya in southern Lebanon.  Three fighters were killed in the same strike. Abu Taleb was Hezbollah’s commander for the central region of the southern border strip and the most senior member of the group killed in eight months, Reuters reported.   New York Times  Reuters

Hamas asks for “amendments” to U.S.-backed peace plan. Israel say Hamas response amounts to rejection.  Hamas informed the foreign ministries of Qatar and Egypt on Tuesday that it wanted some “amendments” to the U.S.-backed proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza. While it didn’t accept the plan outright, its response kept talks for a truce and hostage exchange alive. Qatari and Egyptian officials, who have been key mediators alongside the United States, said officials were studying it, as did the White House. “We’re in receipt of this reply that Hamas delivered to Qatar and to Egypt, and we are evaluating it right now,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters in Washington. Hamas spokesman Jihad Taha said the response included “amendments that confirm the cease-fire, withdrawal, reconstruction and (prisoner) exchange.” He did not elaborate.   But CNN analyst Barak Ravid posted on X, “BREAKING: Israeli official tells me: Israel received Hamas' response. Hamas rejected the proposal for a hostage deal, which was laid out by President Biden in his speech.”  He did not name the “Israeli official,” so there’s no way to know the meaning and motive of the pessimistic characterization.  Reuters  Associated Press   CNN  X   Reuters

“He thinks he’s winning,” U.S. intelligence officials assess Hamas leader Sinwar.  U.S. intelligence officials believe that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and architect of the October 7 mass murder/kidnapping plan, thinks Hamas can survive Israel’s pledge to destroy it.  CNN, quoting unnamed U.S. officials “familiar with recent assessments,” reports that Sinwar is confident Hamas is in a position of strength in negotiations. He likely believes Hamas can hold out while Israel buckles under international condemnation for high civilian casualties and mass starvation. CNN quotes a senior Biden administration official as saying, :“He believes he’s winning.”  That’s a gloomy prospect.  “I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza are actually the ones who can make decisions,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told families of American hostages in a meeting in Tel Aviv Tuesday morning. “That is what we are waiting on.” Sinwar’s confidence and cold calculation were on display in a batch of messages that he sent to mediators and others and that were obtained by the Wall Street Journal. “We have the Israelis right where we want them,” he said in a recent message to other Hamas officials involved in the negotiations, the Journal reported. In one message to Hamas leaders in Doha, the Journal reported, Sinwar referred to massive civilian deaths in national liberation conflicts in places such as Algeria, writing, “these are necessary sacrifices.”  Wall Street Journal  CNN  

U.N. says Hamas hostage taking and Israel's high-casualty hostage rescue may be war crimes.  Israeli bombardment and shooting during last week’s rescue of four hostages killed more than 270 Palestinians, Hamas-affiliated Gaza health officials said. Israeli officials contend the number is exaggerated. There’s no question but that many are dead, including children, whose bodies were shown in news coverage. The U.N. human rights office said Tuesday the killings of civilians in Gaza during the Israeli operation to free four hostages could amount to a war crime, as could Hamas’ holding of captives in densely populated areas. Israel said the  rescue operation, accompanied by an air assault, took place on Saturday in the heart of a residential neighborhood in central Gaza's Nuseirat area. "The manner in which the raid was conducted in such a densely populated area seriously calls into question whether the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution - as set out under the laws of war - were respected by the Israeli forces," Jeremy Laurence, spokesperson for the U.N. human rights office, said.

Meanwhile on Tuesday United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced that in a separate proceeding, Israel's armed and security forces, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and Sudan's warring parties would be added to the U.N.’s annual global list of offenders for violations against children.   In a report to the U.N. Security Council - seen by Reuters - Guterres called out the armed forces of Israel and Sudan for attacking schools and hospitals and Hamas and Islamic Jihad for abducting children.  Reuters Reuters Associated Press  

Centcom leader visits Israel.  Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command, visited Israeli Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi over the weekend. The Israeli Defense Forces posted on X that the pair “held an operational situational assessment, discussed recent regional challenges, the war in Gaza, the developments on the northern border and the strengthening of the strategic partnership in the region against the Iranian threat and Iran's proxies in the region.”  Jerusalem Post  IDF/X    

Russian rights commissioner demands quick release of Russians kidnapped by Hamas.  Tatyana Moskalkova, Russia's Human Rights Commissioner, said Tuesday she had appealed to senior U.N. and other officials to secure the release of Russian nationals held captive by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Posting on Telegram, she said she had launched the appeal after meeting in Moscow with relatives of Russian hostages.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

U.S. will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system after Kyiv’s desperate calls for air defenses. The U.S. said Tuesday that it will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system, following President Joe Biden's approval, to bolster air defenses amid ongoing Russian attacks on cities, infrastructure, and the electrical grid. This is the second Patriot system the U.S. has provided, along with routine missile supplies. This system, sourced from Poland, where it was protecting U.S. troops, is set to be deployed shortly. The Patriot, a highly effective yet scarce air defense weapon, combines a powerful radar with mobile launchers to intercept incoming threats. Other allies, including Germany, have also contributed air defense systems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urgently requested more systems to counter Russian strikes on civilian and military targets. The decision comes ahead of a defense meeting in Brussels, led by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, to address Ukraine's security needs. New York Times Associated Press

Zelensky appeals for help with Ukraine’s energy network as recovery conference opens. At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday appealed for immediate help to repair Ukraine’s electricity network and long-term investment in its energy system, highlighting the destruction caused by Russia’s war. Zelensky called for equipment to restore power and heating plants, noting that nine gigawatts of generating capacity were destroyed. He emphasized the mutual benefits of foreign investment in Ukraine's energy sector. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz estimated Ukraine's reconstruction needs to be nearly $500 billion over 10 years. Scholz said companies had to be offered a business case for investing and talked up Ukraine's potential in sectors including renewables, IT, and pharmaceuticals. He announced additional air defense systems for Ukraine while Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany would deliver another 100 Patriot air defense missiles in an initiative with Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway. "The best kind of reconstruction is the one that doesn't have to happen at all," Scholz said. The conference aimed to cement Ukraine's European Union membership credentials, with financial pledges from the EU and commitments to tackle corruption. Associated Press Reuters 

Politics overshadows a conference to raise money for Ukraine. Political discord overshadowed the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which started in Berlin on Tuesday, due to Monday’s resignation of Mustafa Nayyem, a key anti-corruption figure barred from attending. His departure and concerns over government transparency raised doubts among Ukraine's foreign partners.  Nayyem had been heading Ukraine’s agency for infrastructure and redevelopment. Nayyem and his ally Oleksandr Kubrakov, fired from his position as infrastructure minister in May, came into conflict with President Volodymyr Zelensky and his powerful aide Andriy Yermak. Ukrainian sources say they were considered too independent, and that their direct contacts with Western donors were seen as threatening. “They were delivering the steps needed for ensuring transparency and accountability in our reconstruction procedures. That trust has been flushed down the toilet,” said Daria Kaleniuk of the Anticorruption Action Centre, a Ukrainian watchdog. Economist

Kharkiv mayor says striking Russia has helped to calm embattled city. Ukraine's army has targeted Russian missile launch sites, reducing attacks on Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said on Tuesday. The improvement follows U.S. approval for Ukraine to use American weapons to strike inside Russia. While missile and drone strikes continue, the situation in Kharkiv has calmed recently. Terekhov, attending the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin to seek European support, emphasized the urgent need for Western air defenses to protect the city, Ukraine’s second largest, which remains under threat from Russian bombardment. "It is very important to have the weapons on time. It is very important to have these weapons, especially the multi-defense air system,’’ he said. Reuters  

U.S. to broaden the scope of Russia sanctions. The U.S. Treasury is set to expand its secondary sanctions on Russia, treating any foreign financial institution transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base. This move, reflecting the U.S. view that Russia has become a war economy, will now cover over 4,500 entities, including major banks like Sberbank and VTB, the country’s largest lenders. The expansion aims to discourage institutions, especially in China, from engaging with Russia. This follows concerns that Chinese banks may support Russia despite the risk of U.S. sanctions. The U.S. will also introduce new sanctions and export controls, with G7 countries utilizing frozen Russian sovereign assets. Financial Times 

U.S. government to expand sanctions on sale of semiconductor chips to Russia. The U.S. government is set to announce expanded sanctions on Wednesday aimed at restricting the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, specifically targeting third-party sellers in China. The new sanctions will extend existing export controls to include U.S.-branded goods, not just those made in the U.S., and will identify certain Hong Kong entities involved in shipping goods to Russia. Neither the White House nor the Commerce Department have commented officially on these changes. Reuters 

G-7 to Announce ‘New Steps’ on Frozen Russian Assets, US Says. The Group of Seven (G7) leaders will announce new steps to provide aid to Ukraine using frozen Russian financial assets, aiming to secure roughly $50 billion through a complex pact. John Kirby, spokesperson for President Biden’s National Security Council, indicated that while a full agreement isn't finalized, unanimity among G-7 countries is expected. The funds, estimated to yield €3-5 billion annually, will support Ukraine's medium-term needs. The plan's success depends on the assets remaining frozen, with technical and political details, such as European Union sanctions renewals, still to be resolved. “We will take bold steps to show (Russian President Vladimir) Putin that time is not on his side and that he cannot outlast us as we support Ukraine’s fight for freedom,” Kirby said,  Bloomberg

EU Proposes to Sanction Shipping Giant Sovcomflot to Limit Russia’s Revenue. The European Union proposes sanctioning Russia’s state-owned oil shipping giant, Sovcomflot PJSC, to limit the Kremlin’s war financing capabilities. Sovcomflot, Russia's largest shipping company, has been pivotal in transporting Russian oil despite Western restrictions following the 2022 Ukraine invasion. This proposal aligns with earlier U.S. sanctions on Sovcomflot and associated tankers. The EU's plan also includes sanctioning 13 vessels that ship goods and technologies for the defense sector and oil transport. Approval requires backing from all EU member states, and the proposal may change before finalization. Bloomberg

Germany to Deliver Patriot Missiles, Strike Drones to Ukraine. Germany will deliver thousands of strike drones and 100 Patriot-guided missiles to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the support Tuesday during a visit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a military site in Sanitz, northern Germany, where Ukrainian soldiers are trained to operate the Patriot air-defense system. The aid aims to help Ukraine protect and rebuild its energy infrastructure, heavily damaged by Russian attacks. Italy is also preparing a military package for Ukraine, including a SAMP-T defense system. The German package includes sniper rifles, anti-tank weapons, and artillery ammunition, with consideration of sending a fourth Patriot missile battery. Bloomberg 

Scholz Condemns Far-Right Lawmakers for Zelensky Speech Boycott. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left BSW lawmakers for boycotting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech to the Bundestag on Tuesday. Scholz's spokesperson condemned their "disrespectful behavior." AfD leaders labeled Zelenskiy a "war and begging president" and questioned his legitimacy as head of state. They called for peace negotiations instead of reconstruction support. BSW accused Zelensky of escalating conflict and risking nuclear war. These positions align with Kremlin narratives. Friedrich Merz of the opposition Christian Democrats denounced their actions as a low point for parliamentary culture, emphasizing the need for continued support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. German authorities said last month they’re investigating an AfD lawmaker, Petr Bystron, for alleged corruption and money laundering linked to Russia. Bloomberg 

NATO Chief Signals Openness to Hungary’s Opt-Out of Ukraine Aid. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg indicated Tuesday a possible compromise allowing Hungary to opt out of an aid package for Ukraine, following Budapest's signal to abstain from further support for Kyiv.  Stoltenberg plans to discuss this option with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Despite Hungary's reservations, Stoltenberg emphasized the need for continued NATO support for Ukraine, proposing at least €40 billion annually in aid. Orban's stance has raised concerns among NATO allies about potential impacts on alliance unity and future support for Ukraine. The proposal is expected to be reviewed by NATO defense ministers in Brussels this week. “We have to communicate very clearly to Ukrainians that we will stand by them for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg said. Bloomberg Bloomberg 

Habeck Says Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Won’t Aid Putin’s War Chest. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Tuesday that Europe is working intensively to maintain gas flow through a key Russia-Ukraine pipeline without benefiting the Kremlin. The discussions aim “not to fill Putin’s war chest even more, and still to ensure a reliable energy supply for southeast Europe,” he said on the sidelines of a conference in Berlin. The current transit agreement, which expires at the end of 2024, supplies about 15 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Europe, mainly to Slovakia and Austria. Discussions include European companies potentially buying gas from Azerbaijan and injecting it into Russian pipelines. This strategy aims to ensure energy supply for southeast Europe without increasing Russian revenues. Germany has developed LNG terminals to reduce reliance on Russian gas, but some eastern states still depend on it. Bloomberg 

For Some In Russia's Far-Flung Provinces, Ukraine War Is A Ticket To Prosperity. In Russia's poorer regions, the war in Ukraine has brought economic benefits as men enlist for high wages and factories ramp up defense production. Regions like Tyva, Buryatia, and Chuvashia, suffering heavy casualties, see an influx of money from wages, death benefits, and compensation, boosting local economies. This economic shift contrasts with previous decades of uneven prosperity and has bolstered war support.  Signing bonuses for men volunteering to fight in Ukraine have been climbing toward $7,860 — more than an annual salary for many men. Death benefits are $56,000, according to the sister of one slain soldier. “There was money, but it was never enough, so my brother went to fight,” the sister said. “He went there because of the money. Where can you earn money like that in Chuvashia?” By paying high wages for fighters, the Kremlin avoided a deeply unpopular second round of mobilization, following an initial one in September 2022 that added 300,000 soldiers. Russia also now counts some 6,000 military-industrial factories and related enterprises, a threefold increase from before the 2022 invasion, according to Elina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and senior director at the Kyiv School of Economics. More than 3.5 million people work in those factories. RFE/RL 

Worst-case scenario in Ukraine’s energy system ‘very close to realistic,’ largest private energy company says. Ukrainians could face up to 20 hours of daily blackouts if they cannot repair and defend their energy infrastructure from Russian attacks, DTEK's Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent. Russian strikes could continuously target the energy system unless Ukraine receives sufficient air defenses, leading to deficits. Even in the best-case scenario, blackouts could last up to 10 hours daily. Sakharuk emphasized the need for urgent repairs, increased imports, and additional generation capacity. He called for international financing, noting DTEK's challenges due to its ownership by billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, which deters international financial institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development from providing support. The bank’s President Odile Renaud-Basso told the Kyiv Independent that it is “very selective with whom it works in Ukraine” and that it “does not work with oligarchs.” Kyiv Independent Deutsche Welle

Russia's Su-57 – hype vs. reality. Ukraine claimed to have damaged Russia's cutting-edge Su-57 fighter jets in a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield. The Su-57, touted as Russia’s most modern fighter, has only a few units in service. Despite Russian propaganda praising its superiority, experts argue it falls short of fifth-generation standards, lacking key features like advanced stealth and a suitable engine. The Su-57 has been used mainly to launch missiles from a safe distance, similar to older jets. Its limited use in Ukraine reflects a cautious Russian approach to avoid compromising its reputation and technology. The first major inkling that all was not right with the Su-57 came in 2018 when India withdrew from the project to co-develop and produce the aircraft with Russia. Kyiv independent 

‘We set a precedent.’ Ukraine officially presents Unmanned Systems Forces. Ukraine officially presented its Unmanned Systems Forces on Tuesday, focusing on drone operations as a separate military branch. This follows a decree by President Volodymyr Zelensky and the appointment of Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi as commander. The branch will be the first to utilize air, naval, and ground-based unmanned systems in combat missions. Ukraine has heavily invested in drone technology, using it to target Russian military infrastructure. The country aims to produce 1 million drones in 2024, with over 200 homegrown drone enterprises. This strategic shift aims to enhance Ukraine's military capabilities and disrupt Russian operations. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainian Sea Drones Penetrate Russian Navy’s Remaining Sea of Azov Safe Haven. Ukrainian sea drones have penetrated the Sea of Azov, previously a safe haven for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF), marking a significant escalation in naval warfare. Kyiv's forces targeted Russian warships in Taganrog Bay, damaging a barge and a tugboat. The BSF had concentrated its remaining vessels in the Sea of Azov to avoid attacks from Ukraine’s kamikaze drones and precision-guided missiles. Ukraine has consistently targeted Russian naval assets, sank numerous ships and forced the BSF to retreat from key bases. The recent attacks highlight Ukraine's relentless campaign to disrupt and degrade Russian naval capabilities. Kyiv Post

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 11, 2024. Estonia announced it will provide Mistral man-portable air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine. The European Union will transfer €1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, allocating 90% to defense and 10% to reconstruction. The EU will also provide an additional €1.9 billion from the Ukraine Facility mechanism. The Russian State Duma is advancing bills to broaden censorship of foreign organizations and impose criminal penalties for involvement with "undesirable" groups. A Russian military blogger channel opened a "media school" in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, to expand Russian influence in Central Asia. Danish authorities arrested a Danish-Russian dual citizen accused of ties to Russian intelligence. Former Russian Ministry of Defense Military Academy Head Grigory Molchanov was appointed deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian forces regained lost positions in the Lyptsi direction, north of Kharkiv city. Russian forces advanced southeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

Media: Explosions reported across occupied Crimea, Krasnodar Krai. Explosions were reported overnight on Wednesday in multiple cities across Kremlin-occupied Crimea and in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, according to the Telegram channel Crimean Wind. The blasts occurred in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Saky, Krasnoperekopsk, and Armyanskii. Unconfirmed reports suggest an S-400 air defense system may have been damaged. Ukraine's Armed Forces have not claimed responsibility or commented. Previous attacks have targeted Russian S-400 and S-300 systems, significantly impacting the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Kyiv Independent  

Russia launches missile attacks on Ukraine, explosions heard in multiple cities. Explosions were heard in Kyiv around 4 a.m. and in Odesa at 5 a.m. on Wednesday. No damage was reported in Kyiv, but air raid alerts were issued nationwide due to threats from Russian missiles and drones. Polish and allied aircraft responded to the missile threats. No casualties or infrastructure damage were reported by 5 a.m. Alerts were briefly deactivated but reactivated at 6:15 a.m. Russia's intensified attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to rolling power shutdowns since May 15. Kyiv Independent

Cash-Strapped Ukraine Plans to Sell State Assets to Help Fund War Effort. Ukraine plans to sell state assets – including Hotel Ukraine, a vast shopping mall in Kyiv, and several mining and chemical companies  – to fund its military and stabilize the economy amid the ongoing war with Russia. The government aims to raise at least $100 million by auctioning around 20 state-owned companies, though the total needed for military spending is much higher. Challenges include corruption concerns and the difficulty of attracting investors during wartime. The privatization is intended to make the economy more self-sufficient and alleviate the financial burden, but assets may be sold at lower prices due to the war. “The budget is in the red,” Oleksiy Sobolev, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, said in an interview. “We need to find other ways to get money to keep the macroeconomic situation stable, to help the army and to win this war against Russia.” After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine inherited many poorly managed and debt-ridden state enterprises. Today, it owns some 3,100 companies, with less than half actually operating and only 15 percent generating profits, according to official figures. In April, Russian missiles destroyed a power plant operated by Centrenergo, one of the companies Ukraine had hoped to privatize. New York Times

Zelensky expects Ukrainian refugees to return home after war ends. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expects refugees to return only after the war ends, stating that it's futile to encourage their return now. He believes reconstruction will begin post-war, with strong enthusiasm among returnees to rebuild. Zelensky emphasized the demand for skilled workers in Ukraine. His remarks were made during a Tuesday press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, ahead of an international conference on Ukraine's reconstruction. DPA International 

In Berlin speech, Zelensky says Ukraine must resist being divided. In an emotional speech to Germany's parliament on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky drew parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Germany's Cold War history, emphasizing the need to resist Russian aggression. "Divided Europe was never peaceful. And a divided Germany was never happy," Zelensky told lawmakers in the Bundestag. "And that's why you can understand us, the Ukrainians. You can understand why we are fighting so hard against Russia's attempts to divide us and to divide Ukraine. Why we are doing everything, simply everything, not to allow a wall between the parts of our country. No country should be condemned to have barbed wire tearing its body apart for decades." He made renewed appeals for support, highlighting the importance of unity in defeating Russian President Vladimir Putin. Also on Tuesday, Zelensky argued that the only way to get Putin to negotiate for peace is to deny him the chance to make gains by force. DPA International 

Atesh Partisans claim to have destroyed  Moscow Oblast communication station in sabotage attack. Pro-Ukrainian Atesh partisans on Wednesday reported destroying a Russian satellite communication station in Moscow Oblast in a sabotage attack. Footage uploaded to Telegram by the group appears to show an agent pouring flammable liquid on an R-441 Liven communications satellite, which then ignites. The incident reportedly occurred in the Klin district, about 85 kilometers (more than 50 miles) northwest of Moscow. The targeted station is purportedly part of the 584th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and contributes to the region's air defense systems, and Atesh claimed the attack weakened the air defense systems of the entire Moscow region. The Kyiv Independent has not independently verified these claims or determined the timing of the incident, and Ukraine’s military has not yet commented on the situation. Kyiv Independent 

Netherlands to provide 60 million euros for Ukrainian drone purchases, production.  Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren on Tuesday announced that the Dutch government plans to allocate 60 million euros ($64.4 million) for Ukraine to fortify its aerial and naval drone purchasing and production power. Of this amount, €17.5 million ($18.8 million) will be dedicated to naval drones, while €42.5 million ($45.6 million) will fund bilateral drone deliveries through the international drone coalition, with at least €20 million allocated for first-person view (FPV) drones. The drone coalition, founded in January and co-led by the U.K. and Latvia, aims to enhance Ukraine's unmanned aerial vehicle capabilities. It includes nine nations: Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Sweden, Estonia, and Denmark. In April, Denmark and the Netherlands announced a joint drone procurement worth €400 million ($535 million), marking the coalition's largest contribution. Ukrainian Defense Minister Andris Spruds confirmed that Ukraine would soon receive the first batch of drones from the coalition. Kyiv Independent

Russian barrage leaves Kyiv residents without power and water. Kyiv residents, including Maryna and Valeriy Tkalich with their two-month-old baby, face frequent power and water outages due to Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The couple carries their baby up 12 flights of stairs and uses a gas stove to cook. These blackouts, worsened by ongoing missile and drone strikes, have damaged half of Ukraine's generating capacity, leading to long-term power shortages. In scenes reminiscent of the winter of 2023, streets are frequently plunged into darkness, the hum of private generators can be heard again across Kyiv streets and people carry flashlights to get around. Many fear conditions will worsen in winter. Residents like artist Yevhen Klymenko have adapted their routines, working by natural light and contributing to military support through their art. On visits close to the front lines, Klymenko said he had met Ukrainians who lived in far worst conditions than him. "You understand everything here is insignificant," he said. "(At the front), it is far more difficult.” Reuters

AMERICAS

U.S. Navy monitors Cuba-bound Russian fleet as it sails within 30 miles of Florida.  The U.S. Navy warships and aircraft tracked a Russian naval flotilla – three ships, including a hypersonic-capable frigate and a nuclear-powered submarine – as it headed to Cuba and possibly Venezuela Tuesday for extensive military air and naval exercises.  The Russian vessels passed within 30 miles off South Florida’s coast, McClatchy and the Miami Herald reported Tuesday. The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that the ships were conducting drills, with the nuclear-capable submarine simulating a strike on a group of enemy ships. The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that none of the Russian vessels are carrying nuclear weapons, the Herald reported. The Biden administration deployed three guided-missile destroyers — the USS Truxtun, USS Donald Cook and USS Delbert D. Black — as well as a Coast Guard cutter, the Stone, and a Boeing P-8 maritime patrol aircraft to the region to track the Russians, a U.S. Northern Command official told McClatchy and the Herald.   The Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces said last week that the Russian missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, the nuclear submarine Kazan, the oil tanker Pashin and the salvage tug Nikolai Chiker will arrive on June 12 for a week’s stay.  According to the marinetraffic.com website, the Russian sea rescue tug Nikolay Chiker was positioned 26 nautical miles from Key Largo on Tuesday morning.  The Communist Party newspaper Granma said the ship’s visit highlights the “50th anniversary of cooperation ties” with Canada and the “bilateral collaboration for the maintenance of peace in our region.  A Venezuelan training ship, the AB Simón Bolívar, is scheduled to stop at Santiago de Cuba June 15 -19. Miami  Herald   

ICE arrests 8 Tajiks with suspected ISIS-K ties.U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arrested eight people from Tajikistan who entered the U.S across the Mexican border and are suspected to have ties with the terrorist group ISIS.  CBS News, quoting sources, reported that the eight crossed the U.S. southern border without valid documents, were vetted and released into the U.S. with notices to appear in immigration court. One had used the CBP One app to enter, according to NBC’s sources. Later, however, law enforcement subsequently became concerned with their presence in the U.S.  A  multi-agency Joint Terrorism Task Force began investigating them, according to NBC, and a wiretap picked up one of them talking about bombs, the sources said. Investigators determined he had potential ties to ISIS. At that point, FBI and ICE agents moved to arrest them for immigration violations. At least two of the men had crossed into the US in spring 2023, and the arrests come after warnings from FBI Director Chris Wray about possible ISIS terror plots being staged on US soil and the group’s potential for exploiting the southern border. Some Tajiks claiming loyalty to ISIS-K, for Islamic State Khorasan, ISK, attacked a Russian concert hall in Moscow last March, killing 145 people and wounded hundreds more. In April, Wray warned lawmakers that a possible “coordinated attack” could take place in the U.S. “Increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, akin to the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall a couple weeks ago,” Wray told a Congressional panel.  CNN reported last August that the FBI was investigating a Turkish smuggler tied to ISIS who helped dozens of migrants from Uzbekistan cross the US-Mexico border.

West Point’s CTC Sentinel, in its May 2024 issue, reported that in March 2023, U.S. Central Command Commander General Michael Kurilla assessed that ISK’s ultimate goal could include striking the U.S. homeland. A number of ISK-affiliated people have recently been arrested in Turkey and Germany.  Five of those arrested in Germany were Tajiks.   New York Post  NBC News CBS News  USA Today  CTC Sentinel 

Lockheed offers to partner with Polish arms industry to produce GMLRS rocket launchers.   American arms industry giant Lockheed Martin is offering Poland’s defense industry a deal to partner in manufacturing guided multiple-launch rocket systems, known as  GMLRS.  Ukraine is currently using GMLRS against Russian troops. Poland is considering buying up to 486 launchers and launcher-loader module kits with related gear for its M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, also a Lockheed product. Defense News reported that Lockheed is talking to Polish officials about the idea of producing GLMRS systems at Mesko, a subsidiary of PGZ, the nation’s state-run defense giant. In early 2023, the U.S. State Department approved the Polish bid to acquire advanced rockets and rocket launchers,and in September then-Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak signed a framework deal to buy up to 486 HIMARS units.  However, a new centrist government formed in Poland three months later and has not sea;ed the deal. According to Defense News, the GMLRS rocket carries a 200-pound unitary warhead with a range exceeding 44 miles.  Defense News  

Two Texas men sentenced to prison for conspiracy to sell Iranian oil to China.  Two Texas men convicted in federal court in Philadelphia last November of trying to sell Iranian oil to China in violation of sanctions and money laundering conspiracy were sentenced Tuesday to 45 months in prison.Zhenyu “Bill” Wang, 43, a Chinese citizen, and Daniel Ray Lane, 42, of McKinney, Texas, conspired to evade U.S. economic sanctions against Iran from July 2019 to February 2020 by facilitating the purchase of sanctioned oil from Iran, masking its origins and then selling it to a refinery in China, the Justice department said.  Reuters U.S. Justice Department. 

Haiti names new cabinet, in strong shift from previous government. Haiti's new administration, led by Prime Minister Garry Conille, has formed a new cabinet, departing from the previous government. The cabinet reduces the number of ministers and replaces all former members of Prime Minister Ariel Henry's team. Conille, also serving as interior minister, returned after a short tenure as PM. Many new picks were drawn from outside Haiti's political class altogether. Key appointments include Carlos Hercule for justice, Ketleen Florestal for finance and international cooperation, Jean Marc Berthier Antoine for defense, and Dominique Dupuy for foreign affairs. This shift aims to address Haiti's humanitarian crisis, gang violence, and political instability. Haiti's social and political crisis has deepened since a presidential assassination in 2021 threw the Caribbean nation of 12 million people into upheaval. Gangs have expanded their control over the country while displacing thousands of civilians. Reuters Associated Press  

Mexico's Sheinbaum discussed migration, security, trade with U.S. officials. Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday held talks with a U.S. delegation about her ideas and plans for dealing with migration, security and trade. At a press conference, she asserted that she would tackle security by centering her approach on the root causes of criminality, and by focusing on fighting impunity. Sheinbaum won a landslide victory just over a week ago. Reuters

Mexico tries to stem the flow of Central American migrants by dumping them in steamy southern Mexican towns. Authorities are rounding up Central American migrants and sending them to Villahermosa and Tapachula in Mexico’s deep south. “We care a lot ... about keeping migrants in the southeast because crossing to the north is very risky,”Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obradoraid in his morning press briefing, responding to a question from The Associated Press about busing migrants to southern Mexico. But south Mexico is hot, miserable and still dangerous.  The number of “enforcement encounters” at the U.S.-Mexico border has dropped 40 percent from an all-time high in December 2023 to the end of April.   Associated Press

Florida finds Chiquita liable for Colombia civil war killings, rights abuses. Banana giant Chiquita Brands was ordered to pay $38.3 million to 16 family members of people killed during Colombia’s long civil war by a violent right-wing paramilitary group funded by the company, a federal jury in West Palm Beach decided Monday. The judgment marks the first time the company has been found liable.  Other similar lawsuits are pending elsewhere in U.S. courts,  “This verdict sends a powerful message to corporations everywhere: profiting from human rights abuses will not go unpunished. These families, victimized by armed groups and corporations, asserted their power and prevailed in the judicial process,” Marco Simons, EarthRights International General Counsel and one plaintiff’s lawyer, said in a news release. Associated Press

EUROPE

Russia may store 100 nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad Oblast, Polish FM claims. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski claimed that Russia might store up to 100 nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad Oblast, near Poland and Lithuania. This coincides with Russia's tactical nuclear weapon exercises, with Belarus participating. "This means that an attack on the European Union is quite likely," Sikorski warned at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin on Tuesday. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin has frequently issued nuclear threats. In response, a White House official suggested the US might need to increase its strategic nuclear weapon deployment due to growing threats from Russia, China, and others. Kyiv Independent

Russia begins the second stage of tactical nuclear weapon drills with Belarus. Russia has begun the second stage of tactical nuclear drills with Belarus, focusing on the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons in response to perceived threats from Western powers. The drills involve Iskander missile systems, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, and long-range bombers. President Vladimir Putin has suggested potential changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine but stated there is no current need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The U.S. is monitoring the situation, acknowledging the serious implications of Russia's nuclear posture. Reuters 

Putin to keep demoted ally Patrushev on Russia's Security Council. President Vladimir Putin will keep Nikolai Patrushev on Russia's Security Council despite demoting him from his long-time role as security chief to overseeing shipbuilding. This move, announced in a decree on Tuesday, has sparked speculation about Patrushev's future and its implications for Russia's direction. Patrushev, a former director of the Federal Security Service, has been a key figure in shaping Russia's national security strategy. The Security Council, chaired by Putin, manages national security policy but lacks direct authority over security agencies. Additionally, new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov was named a permanent council member. Reuters 

Finland sees its first NATO deployment as its jets join a mission in Romania. Finland on Tuesday deployed seven F-18 fighter jets to Romania for its first NATO mission since joining the alliance in April 2023, participating in air shielding exercises with Romanian and British jets. This drill is expected to accelerate Finland's NATO integration. Finland's membership doubled NATO's border with Russia and strengthened its eastern flank amid the Ukraine conflict. Romania, an early supporter of Finland's accession, also hosts a NATO regional F-16 training hub for Ukrainian pilots. Reuters

Macron’s Election Gamble Triggers Chaos and Anger Inside His Party. Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold a snap parliamentary election has caused chaos and anger within his party, with many lawmakers and officials unprepared. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and National Assembly President Yael Braun-Pivet opposed the decision, while some lawmakers fear losing their jobs. The election aims to counter Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which is leading in polls. “I can’t pretend that nothing’s happened,” Macron said of his party’s defeat in Sunday’s elections for the European Parliament. “The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger not only for our nation, but also for our Europe, and for France’s place in Europe and the world.” The legislative election will be held over two rounds on June 30 and July 7. The outcome may significantly affect France’s governance and its international priorities. Bloomberg 

Buoyed by Election, Meloni Basks in Spotlight as Italy Hosts G7. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’ was a big winner in the European Parliament elections, the only leader from a major Western European country to be fortified by the balloting. Her party emerged victorious, gaining 29% of the vote. This success has bolstered her position as she prepares to host the G7 summit in Apulia. Meloni's hard-right Brothers of Italy party’s victory and her pragmatic approach to key international issues, such as supporting Ukraine, have enhanced her influence within European and global politics. The G7 meeting is seen as an opportunity for Meloni to solidify her leadership on the international stage. However, challenges remain, including Italy's economic issues and youth unemployment. New York Times 

What the far-right victories in the EU could say about US elections this year. The recent European Union elections marked significant gains for far-right parties across many of the EU’s 27 countries, causing concern for the political establishment. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party was outpaced, and French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap legislative elections. The right's success is driven by discontent with globalization and immigration. Despite

this surge, the political center is likely to retain control of the EU parliament, indicating that conservative populism has its limits in Europe. The effect on the U.S. presidential election in November is debatable. It’s far from inevitable that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden. Trump has embraced the European right, especially Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. There are some key differences, however, between Trump and European populists, the most significant being their records on democracy. Trump tried to overturn his loss to Biden in 2020, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist and co-author of “How Democracies Die,” said Trump’s stance sharply contrasts with European populists. “They’re much less openly authoritarian than Trump,” Levitsky said. “None of these guys have rejected election results.” Associated Press 

Hamstrung at home, G7 leaders struggle to resolve global woes. G7 leaders will meet in southern Italy from June 13-15 to address global issues such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, trade imbalances with China, threats from AI, and development challenges in Africa. However, many leaders face domestic political struggles, weakening their authority on the world stage. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the summit host, is the exception, having recently won her EU election. The summit will also see the attendance of numerous global leaders and Pope Francis. Diplomats aim to agree on leveraging profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. However, the tenuous political status at home of many gathering leaders may limit Meloni's achievements. "As the G7 host, you want fully empowered leaders. If you only have lame ducks, there isn't much you can do," said Francesco Galietti, founder of political risk firm Policy Sonar. "If you don't have authority at home, how can you have authority on the world stage?" Reuters 

How a Russian Operative Worked to Shape Moscow’s Story in Europe. A Russian intelligence operative, Artem Kureyev, has led influence operations in Europe and Africa, engaging with journalists to shape coverage favorable to Moscow. Documents show Kureyev arranged travel, offered payments for articles, and facilitated interviews to promote Russian narratives, especially regarding Ukraine. This comes as the US and EU ramp up efforts to counter Russian disinformation. Kureyev, linked to the FSB and the "African Initiative," has also been connected to former Wagner group members. Western nations are working to expose and mitigate these influence campaigns despite the challenges. Bloomberg 

EU Seeks to Speed Clean Energy Shift and Curb Russian LNG. The European Union's executive aims to strengthen energy security and accelerate the shift from fossil fuel imports, including reducing reliance on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). The European Commission on Wednesday will outline efforts to phase out Russian fossil fuels and create a high-level group to steer the transition. Challenges include reconciling member states' differing energy strategies and phasing out Russian LNG imports. Proposed measures include temporarily banning Russian LNG deliveries and sanctioning key Russian LNG projects. Russia currently supplies around 18 billion cubic meters of LNG to European ports — chiefly in France, Spain, and Belgium — with around 1 billion cubic meters re-exported, according to EU energy regulator data. Bloomberg

Georgian Activist Beaten By Unknown Assailants Outside His Home. Georgian civil activist Zuka Berdzenishvili was attacked outside his home by three unknown assailants on June 11, shortly after parliament speaker Shalva Papuashvili accused him and other activists of "politically motivated terror." Berdzenishvili, who suffered head and facial injuries, had previously reported attempted attacks. The incident followed accusations that the Georgian government and masked thugs were targeting protesters and activists opposing the controversial "foreign agent" law, which has been condemned by Western governments and led to U.S. visa restrictions on Georgian officials. Georgian Dream General Secretary Kakha Kaladze, who is also the mayor of the capital, Tbilisi, said that organizations that receive funding from abroad and do not register in a database will be fined and their assets will be seized. RFE/RL 

Danish Prime Minister gives first TV interview since assault, says tensions rising. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Tuesday gave her first television interview since being attacked last week and shared that she is not feeling entirely herself but will continue working primarily from her office. Frederiksen suffered minor whiplash when a man assaulted her in central Copenhagen last Friday. She suggested that the incident might have been the culmination of ongoing threats, particularly those escalating after the Middle East conflict, and mentioned that online threats have worsened. She emphasized that the attack felt personal but also viewed it as an attack on the institution of the prime minister. A 39-year-old Polish man living in Denmark was arrested and is in pre-trial custody until June 20 on preliminary charges of violence against a public servant. His motive is unclear, but he reportedly praised Frederiksen in court and may have been under the influence of drugs and alcohol during the incident. Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. intelligence assesses Houthis in Yemen in talks to provide weapons to al-Shabaab in Somalia, officials say. U.S. intelligence has learned that Houthis in Yemen are in discussions to provide weapons to the Somali militant group al-Shabaab, a development that threatens regional stability. The potential cooperation could offer the Houthis new financing and provide al-Shabaab with sophisticated weapons. This collaboration might undermine the fragile ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and complicate the UN's peace efforts in Yemen. The degree of Iran's involvement in this arrangement is unclear, though the U.S. is investigating potential connections. Al-Shabaab views the internationally recognized government of Somalia as a puppet of the United States. The US has about 480 US troops in Somalia, according to a U.S. official. CNN 

Houthi attacks drive oil shippers out of Red Sea.   Global crude oil and oil products shipments are increasingly taking the long route around the Cape of Good Hope.  The number of shipments plying the Cape route is up 47 percent since the Houthi rebels started attacking vessels in the Red Sea, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.  Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

North Korea's Kim boasts of 'invincible' ties with Russia amid talks of Putin visit. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared his country an "invincible comrade-in-arms" with Russia in a message to President Vladimir Putin, reinforcing their strategic relationship. This comes amid speculation over Putin's potential visits to North Korea and Vietnam. Kim praised Russia's resilience against sanctions and pressures from hostile forces. Diplomatic and security ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have intensified, with allegations from Washington and Seoul of North Korea supplying weapons to Russia for the Ukraine war in exchange for technological aid. Reuters 

China waves away Taiwan's concerns after ex-navy captain detained on river leading to Taipei.  The Chinese government on Wednesday stated that a Chinese man arrested near Taipei for crossing the Taiwan Strait on a speedboat acted independently and that Taiwan's concerns are unwarranted. The man, a former Chinese navy captain, was detained by Taiwan's coast guard on Sunday in Tamsui, a coastal area of the self-governing island. Though Taiwan suspects he might have been assessing the island's defenses, China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Chen Binhua, emphasized the man's actions were personal and criticized Taiwan's ruling party for overreacting. He mentioned that the man would be punished upon his return to China, though details were not provided. Taiwan's National Security Bureau is investigating the man's motivations and considering potential government involvement due to his military background. The incident raised security concerns in Taiwan, which suspects it might be part of China's "gray zone warfare" tactics. Taiwan's coast guard believes the man did not seek political asylum. Reuters

Hong Kong wields new national security law against exiled activists, cancels passports. Hong Kong's Security Bureau on Wednesday announced it would use powers from a new national security law to cancel the passports of six self-exiled activists in Britain: Nathan Law, Christopher Mung Siu-tat, Finn Lau, Simon Cheng, Johnny Fok Ka-chi, and Tony Choi Ming-da. These individuals, on a wanted list since last year, have been accused of endangering national security and colluding with external forces. The measures include prohibiting financial support and canceling their business dealings in Hong Kong. Security chief Chris Tang defended these actions, emphasizing the activists' continued threat to national security and criticizing British entities for discrediting Hong Kong's government. He argued that the cancellation of passports does not violate freedom of movement rights due to national security exceptions. The new security bill, Article 23, includes penalties for treason, sabotage, and sedition, building on the 2020 China-imposed national security law. Hong Kong, which transitioned from British to Chinese rule in 1997 under the "one country, two systems" promise, has faced allegations of eroding freedoms. Some activists, like Law and Lau, dismissed the passport cancellations as redundant or acts of transnational repression. Reuters Associated Press

Chinese police arrest stabbing suspect who attacked Americans in park. Local Chinese police on Tuesday announced the arrest of a 55-year-old male suspect who allegedly stabbed 4 American instructors in a park in northeast China’s Jilin City. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the incident, which is still being investigated and did not leave any of the Americans critically wounded, appeared to be isolated and random. Police reported that the suspect, who is from the city’s Longtan District and remains unidentified except for his surname, Cui, stabbed all four educators after one of them bumped into him. He also reportedly stabbed a Chinese national who attempted to intervene. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian did not expect that the attack would not “disrupt normal cultural and people-to-people exchange” between Beijing and Washington. While knife assaults are not uncommon in China, public attacks against foreigners are quite rare. CNN CBS Al Jazeera

South Korean opposition leader Lee indicted due to funds transfer to North Korea. South Korea's primary opposition leader, Lee Jae-myung, was indicted on bribery charges linked to a scheme involving the Ssangbangwool Group to transfer funds to North Korea and facilitate his visit to Pyongyang during his tenure as Gyeonggi province governor. His deputy was previously found guilty of similar charges. The scheme, dating back to 2019-2020, aimed to promote a commercial project with North Korea and enhance Lee's political profile. Lee denies any involvement, calling the charges "fiction." Lee, a 2022 presidential candidate, narrowly lost to Yoon Suk Yeol and is considered a strong contender for the 2027 election. He also faces separate corruption charges from his time as a city mayor. The indictment recalls a past scandal where South Korean officials transferred funds to North Korea through the Hyundai Group, tainting the first inter-Korean summit in 2000. Reuters

Myanmar’s military allegedly emptying villages in western state to bolster defenses against rebels. Reports by residents, media, and a rights group indicate that Myanmar’s military has been evacuating villages near Sittwe, Rakhine state’s capital, to defend against attacks by the powerful group known as the Arakan Army. This rebel group, which seeks autonomy for the ethnic Rohingya and has already captured much of the surrounding area, commenced a relatively successful offensive in its home ground of Rakhine around six months ago. Residents of small villages have been forced to leave town within a few days, with some reporting the installation of landmines and security structures around their homes. The evacuations, which reportedly aim to prevent incidents like a recent violent clash in Byine Phyu village, where 76 people were allegedly killed, come amid an ongoing nationwide civil war in Myanmar. Pro-democracy and ethnic minority forces have been fighting the military government that seized power in 2021, and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed deep concern over the escalating violence, calling for the protection of civilians and accountability for human rights violations. Associated Press

World Bank reports Myanmar poverty worsening, economic growth sluggish. The World Bank reports that poverty in Myanmar is at its highest point in six years, with economic growth expected to remain at just 1% for the current fiscal year. The country's political and economic turmoil since the 2021 military coup has been exacerbated by increasing violence, labor shortages, and a depreciating currency. High inflation and limited access to labor, foreign exchange, and electricity are significant constraints on growth. The Southeast Asian nation’s civil war has displaced over 3 million people, increasing poverty rates to 32.1%, and the ruling junta's 2024 conscription plan has led to labor shortages due to increased migration. Loss of access to key land borders with China and Thailand has severely impacted trade, with exports down by 13% and imports by 20%. The World Bank predicts a very weak economic outlook, offering little relief for Myanmar’s population in the near future. Reuters

Pakistani forces kill 11 insurgents in raid after bombing that killed 7 soldiers. Pakistani officials reported Tuesday that its security forces killed 11 militants in an overnight raid on an insurgent hideout in the northwest’s Lakki Marwat district. The attack was allegedly in retaliation for a roadside bombing on Sunday that killed seven soldiers in the same area. The ongoing operation aims to eliminate any remaining terrorists in the region, which borders Afghanistan. The roadside attack has not been claimed by any group, but suspicion falls on the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP), a group allied with the Afghan Taliban but operating separately. The TTP has increased its attacks since the Afghan Taliban took power in 2021. Pakistani officials accuse Afghanistan's Taliban rulers of harboring TTP fighters, a claim that Kabul denies. The TTP insists it does not use Afghan territory for attacks in Pakistan. Associated Press ABC

AFRICA

Malawi’s Vice President Is Killed in Plane Crash. Malawi’s Vice President Saulos Chilima and nine others were killed in a plane crash in bad weather. The military aircraft went missing on Monday, leading to a large-scale search. President Lazarus Chakwera on Tuesday confirmed the wreckage was found in northern Malawi, with no survivors. Chilima, a presidential candidate for the 2025 election, was on his way to a funeral. He had previously served as vice president and was known for his stance against corruption. New York Times CNN France 24 Le Monde   

ICC prosecutor investigates war crimes committed in Sudan’s al-Fashir.  The International Criminal Court (ICC) has launched an urgent investigation into allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Sudan’s al-Fashir, a city in Darfur, which has become a new battlefront between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan expressed grave concern over credible reports of widespread international crimes, including ethnically motivated attacks, pervasive rapes, and assaults on hospitals. He urged anyone with evidence to submit it to the ICC. Al-Fashir, home to over 1.8 million people, has been embroiled in the conflict since April 2023. The ICC, which can prosecute such crimes in its member states or via UN Security Council referrals, is focusing on Darfur, following a 2005 UN referral. Earlier this year, Khan informed the UN Security Council of potential war crimes by government troops and the RSF in El Geneina, another Darfur city. Reuters 

CYBER & TECH

Amsterdam orders removal of Chinese-made surveillance gear over spying fears. Amsterdam’s municipal government has announced plans to remove Chinese-manufactured surveillance cameras from public spaces over concerns related to human rights and espionage risks.  Over 1200 cameras used to monitor traffic and public spaces will be replaced within five years with a follow-on requirement that suppliers provide only non-China-made equipment in the future.  The action was prompted by fears that Chinese-made surveillance equipment could be used to relay images and data to the parent company or Beijing government authorities.  Previously, the British and Australian governments ordered the removal of Chinese-made surveillance gear from government and defense facilities.  Bloomberg

U.S.-Japan-South Korea tech training program opens with focus on emerging sectors.  A new tech cooperation program linking U.S., Japanese, and South Korean government officials began in Washington this week.  The Trilateral Technology Leaders Training Program, which arose out of a Camp David summit last year, will promote exchanges among the three countries on advanced technology sectors, including semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing along with cybersecurity.  Biotechnology and space exploration also will be covered in program discussions.  Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the initiative creates potential “for a new kind of relationship that would change the contours, not just of Asia but the world.”  Google and Tokyo-based NEC Corporation are among the sponsors for the program sessions that will be led by Johns Hopkins University faculty and members of the policy and tech communities.  The program’s opening two weeks will be held in Washington with a final week in Silicon Valley.  South China Morning Post

UAE digital minister says U.S. concerns over China tech transfer justified.  The digital minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) agrees that U.S. concerns over sensitive chip technology finding its way to China via the Middle East are justified.  Omar Al Olama, minister for AI and digital economy, while noting that “sometimes you are a victim of the neighborhood you are in,” said that the UAE has proven to be a strategic partner for the U.S.  The UAE has ambitions to become an advanced semiconductor producer and is seeking support from the U.S. for that goal.  The country recently cut ties with China related to advanced technologies to address U.S. concerns.  A recent Microsoft decision to invest $1.5 billion in the UAE AI firm, G42, followed decisions by G42 to divest interests in China.  Al Olama described G42’s actions as a “continuation of a series of reassurances that the UAE has given.”  Bloomberg

Poor cybersecurity practices at root of Snowflake cloud data compromises.  Poor password hygiene and failure to use multi-factor authentication led to the compromise of more than 150 Snowflake clients by a threat actor tracked as UNC5537.   Over 9,800 Snowflake customers rely on the cloud data giant’s services, including healthcare organizations and some of the world’s largest tech companies.  The Snowflake environment itself does not seem to have been vulnerable to breaches.  Instead, vulnerabilities in customer credentials allowed threat actors to infect targeted systems with info stealer malware.  The compromised credentials were subsequently offered for sale on cybercrime forums.  According to a Mandiant report on the breach of 165 Snowflake customers, “at least 79.7 percent of the accounts leveraged by the threat actor in this campaign had prior credential exposure.”  Researchers note that the breach campaign “is not the result of any particularly novel or sophisticated tool, technique, or procedure” but stems from a thriving infostealer market and failure to secure credentials.  Mandiant said the threat campaign, which began in April, is “ongoing,” an indication that the number of corporate victims may rise.  Cybernews   TechCrunch   BleepingComputer   CyberScoop

Ukraine startup firms tackle new challenges of Russian electronic warfare.  Breaking Defense is out with a lengthy exclusive report on Ukrainian drone startups that are continuing to adapt and innovate as they try to outpace Russia counterparts in drone tactics and electronic warfare (EW).  Maintaining GPS connectivity with Ukrainian drones at the frontline has become an increasing problem due to Russian jamming in an environment that is described as “the most signal-dense conflict zone in human history.”  While Ukraine has led the way in drone use since the Russian invasion, more recent focus has been on ways to stay ahead of intense EW operations.  Ukrainian firms have been introducing homegrown solutions with the support of a joint government-private sector initiative, Brave1, under the sponsorship of the ministries of Defense and Digital Transformation.  Brave1 project leader Nataliia Kushnerska said the latest projects “are short-range EW, designed to protect the military on the front lines directly.”  More than 100 EW projects have registered with Brave1 involving over 50 developers and manufacturers.  One of the firms profiled by Breaking Defense, Falcons, produces a three-piece technology called Eters, which parses radio signals from drones, repeaters, and other technical equipment to clarify the electronic environment, discerning threats in all the digital noise.  Breaking Defense

Estonia developing drone, counter-drone innovations for military, Ukraine forces.  Estonia’s defense ministry is promoting the country’s production of low-cost drone and counter-drone systems with the assistance of the Estonian Defense League (EDL), a volunteer military auxiliary organization.  EDL members also participate in equipment deliveries, including drones, to Ukrainian forces.  The connections with Ukrainian troops allow the government and EDL to respond with innovative solutions to battlefield needs, including a drone project known as “Angry Hedgehog,” which produces a short-range loitering munition.  Drones from this project will have a range of nine miles and be equipped with AI-enabled target detection capability to evade Russian jamming. In addition, Estonia is propelling development of a hand-held drone detection system as well as an inexpensive counter-drone missile.  The Estonian army is also testing drone support for artillery targeting operations by linking aloft drones with fire control units.  DefenseOne

‘Brutal’ ransomware trend raises fear of possible violence against victims.  Cybersecurity experts say the wave of ransomware attacks that have plagued organizations worldwide shows no sign of abating by 2024.  Recorded Future threat analyst Allan Liska observed, “we’re definitely not winning the fight against ransomware right now.”  Liska’s assessment is backed by ransomware attacks that have become a daily event across the globe.  Just last week a cyberattack crippled three major London hospitals, creating “chaos” in National Health Care services.  High visibility events like the U.K. attacks are the exception.  According to Brett Callow, a threat analyst at Emsisoft, “there is a visibility problem into incidents; most organizations don't disclose or report them,” adding to the difficulty of discerning trends and patterns.  One trend that has been confirmed is the growth of “shame sites,” where attackers leak data as part of an extortion attempt.  Callow says, “generally speaking, their tactics are becoming progressively more brutal.”  Last year, following a cyberattack on the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, cancer patients received individual emails threatening to release personal information if they did not pay ransoms.  Callow fears that the increasing ruthlessness of threat actors “will spill over into real-world violence very soon.”  He added, “when there are millions to be had, they might do something bad to an executive of a company that was refusing to pay, or a member of their family.”  Law enforcement authorities have notched notable successes in disrupting ransomware gangs, including seizure of LockBit ransomware websites and the arrest of two LockBit affiliates based in Ukraine and Poland.  Wired

NASA, Boeing delay Starliner's crewed return to June 18 to address potential problems. NASA and Boeing announced they plan to return the Starliner spacecraft and its first astronaut crew from the International Space Station (ISS) on June 18, later than initially planned. The delay allows mission analysts to address potential issues that could impact the return. Initially, Starliner was set to undock on Friday after launching two NASA astronauts on June 5. This mission is a key test before NASA can certify Starliner for regular flights. NASA officials in Houston are managing multiple factors for Starliner's return, including fixing faulty components, weather conditions, and ISS scheduling, such as other astronauts' spacewalks. The targeted undocking date is June 18, with the spacecraft landing approximately six hours later in predetermined locations like the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico or Willcox Playa in Arizona, depending on weather conditions. Starliner can remain docked to the ISS for up to 45 days. Reuters

Gender and disinformation: how Russia and China are using faux females to get more attention. Taiwanese researcher Wen-Ping Liu discovered that fake female social media profiles created by Chinese disinformation campaigns influenced Taiwan's election more effectively than male profiles, gaining more engagement due to gender stereotypes and attracting increased views because people tend to perceive women as warmer and less threatening. This trend is seen in various contexts, including propaganda, online scams, and AI chatbots. The research of Sylvie Borau, a France-based marketing professor, supports this, showing users prefer "female" bots and see them as more human, though these bots face more harassment. Fake female profiles receive three times more views, especially those appearing young, according to analysis done by the Israeli tech firm Cyabra, which specializes in bot detection. Nations like China and Russia exploit these stereotypes in disinformation campaigns, often using AI-generated images. A UN report highlighted that many fake female accounts are created by men, suggesting that more diversity in tech could reduce embedded sexist stereotypes. This creates a dilemma for programmers aiming to humanize AI without reinforcing sexist views. Associated Press

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief