Wednesday, July 5, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Analysis: U.S. Funding Secret Police Units Around the World. The Wall Street Journal is out with a report on how U.S. agencies run shadow police units in over a dozen developing countries where U.S. authorities believe regular police are too corrupt to be trusted. The secret police units are formed of local law-enforcement officers selected and vetted by U.S. embassy personnel who then, to an extent, assign the units to missions aligned with U.S. interests. These police units, which operate under memorandums of understanding between the U.S. and local authorities, tackle issues including illegal poaching of endangered species, human trafficking and drug smuggling. The strategy was first employed in the 1980s by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration during its cocaine interdiction efforts in Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, to counter cartel influence over local police, but has since been adopted by various U.S. law enforcement agencies globally. The U.S. State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs says it has screened members of 105 police units worldwide for agencies such as the FBI, the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, and the Department of Homeland Security. The State Department said it is unclear exactly how many police units or employed officers there are, or how much the government spends on it, because some agencies do their own evaluations. Wall Street Journal
Yellen Speaks With China’s Ambassador to the US. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday met with Xie Feng, China’s Ambassador to the United States ahead of Yellen’s visit to Beijing this week. A “frank and productive discussion” reportedly ensued, with Xie apparently expressing concerns over economic and trade issues between the two countries, and requesting that Yellen help address them during her upcoming visit. Reuters South China Morning Post
Colombia, ELN Rebels to Cease Offensive Actions Ahead of Full Ceasefire. Colombian Armed Forces and the National Liberation Army (ELN) are expected to halt fighting this week ahead of an expected full ceasefire set to begin in August, following peace negotiations last month. Officials say they hope this ceasefire will bring an end to nearly 60 years of conflict in the country, which has resulted in more than 450,000 deaths. Prior negotiations have had only mixed results, given ELN’s localized chain of command structure and dissent within its ranks. Reuters
Honduras, China Open Free Trade Agreement Negotiations. The Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina announced that China’s Deputy trade minister is scheduled to visit the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa between July 6 and 8 for talks over a potential free trade pact, which comes on the heels of a previous deal last month in which China approved Honduran imports of bananas, coffee, and shrimp. These trade negotiations began after the Honduran government broke off diplomatic ties to Taiwan in March. Reuters
Western Europe
NATO Extends Stoltenberg’s Term as Chief by a Year. NATO has extended Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s contract for another year. The move ensures continuity in the alliance’s leadership as the Ukraine war continues. Stoltenberg, who has been head of NATO since 2014, has been praised for balancing views on how best to support Ukraine, as well as guiding the alliance through former President Donald Trump’s open speculation of having the U.S. withdraw from NATO. Stoltenberg said he was honored by the extension of his term, saying the alliance is “more important than ever.” President Joe Biden welcomed the decision, saying Stoltenberg has led the alliance with his “steady leadership, experience, and judgment.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba likewise said the decision was “excellent news.” While the extension of Stoltenberg’s tenure is widely seen as a win for his experience and leadership, analysts note that it shows a lack of consensus on a possible successor. BBC New York Times Politico Reuters
Top NATO Official Says No F-16s for Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s military committee, said in an interview on Monday that Western allies will not deliver F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in time to help in its ongoing counteroffensive against Russian forces. Kyiv has long requested the aircraft, which NATO countries are expected to start delivering in the fall at the earliest. Bauer said it is not possible to get the jets to Ukraine “in the short term,” because “training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counteroffensive.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday that Kyiv expects to receive the jets at the start of 2024 and is working “to speed up this process.” The Biden administration did not agree to help allow countries to start delivering the F-16s to Ukraine until May, when it also agreed to start allowing Ukrainian pilots to be trained on the jets. New York Times
Switzerland Seeks to Join European Sky Shield Air Defense Project. Switzerland is seeking to participate in the European Sky Shield air defense project. European Sky Shield is a common air defense umbrella arranged by Germany in 2022 to strengthen European air defense by coordinating procurement of air and missile defense systems and facilitating cooperation on training, maintenance and logistics. Around 17 countries have agreed to participate in the project, including Germany, Britain, Finland and Sweden. Swiss Defense Minister Viola Amherd will reportedly sign a declaration of intent for Switzerland to join the project when she meets her Austrian and German counterparts on Friday. Critics of the move say Switzerland’s participation in the scheme will violate its policy of neutrality. Reuters
German Justice Minister Meets Taiwanese Counterpart. German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann met with his Taiwanese counterpart Ching-Hsiang Tsai in Berlin on Tuesday. The German justice ministry said the two discussed cooperation in the legal field, especially on criminal matters such as internet fraud and extradition. While the one-China policy prevents Germany and Taiwan from conducting top level engagement between their heads of state, defense ministers and foreign ministers, other ministerial-level meetings are possible. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Reports Past Few Days ‘Particularly Fruitful’ for Counteroffensive. Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian troops have had a “particularly fruitful” past few days in their counteroffensive against Russian forces. He did not elaborate further, though he said Ukrainian forces are “fulfilling the number one task” of destroying Russian military assets and manpower. Ukrainian military spokespeople say Ukrainian forces are advancing towards Berdiansk in southern Ukraine, have seen “partial success” in the north and south of Bakhmut, and are managing to hold back Russian attacks towards Lyman, Avdiivka, and Marinka in eastern Ukraine. Reuters
Russian Shelling Hits Kherson, Kharkiv. Ukraine reports heavy shelling hit Kherson and Kharkiv on Tuesday. In the city of Kherson, the shelling hit residential buildings and killed two people. Regional officials said Russia had launched 68 strikes across the Kherson region in the last 24 hours. In the Kharkiv region, a missile strike on Pervomayskyi, a town around 30 miles south of the city of Kharkiv, injured at least 43 people. The regional prosecutor’s office said it appears an Iskander ballistic missile was used in the attack. Al Jazeera New York Times
Ukraine and Russia Accuse Each Other of Imminent Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Attack. Ukraine and Russia are accusing each other of planning an attack on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is planning “dangerous provocations” at the plant and could be planning to “simulate an attack” on the facility. The Ukrainian military added that it has “operational data” that Russian forces have placed “explosive devices” on the roofs of some of the plant’s reactors. The military said if detonated, the explosives will not destroy the reactors but make it appear like Ukrainian forces bombed the facility. An official at Rosenergoatom, Russia’s state nuclear company, claimed Ukraine will use “long-range precision equipment and kamikaze attack drones” to drop explosives laced with nuclear waste from other Ukrainian nuclear power plants on the Zaporizhzhia facility. The IAEA has expressed concern about safety at the plant and is calling for its demilitarization. Reuters New York Times
Xi Reportedly Warned Putin Against Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly personally warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Both Chinese and western sources said Xi delivered the warning during his state visit to Moscow in March. The sources added that Beijing has privately taken credit for deterring Russia against using nuclear weapons in its invasion of Ukraine. Experts say Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine goes against Beijing’s interest, namely because it could turn Europe against China for its tacit support of Moscow. Western officials said that China’s emphasis on the nuclear issue offers some reassurance that Beijing could be putting boundaries on its “no limits” partnership with Russia. Financial Times
Russia, U.S. Reportedly Discuss Possible Prisoner Exchanges. Russia and the U.S. have reportedly held discussions on potential prisoner swaps, which could see the release of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan, both of whom Russia arrested on suspicion of spying, in exchange for Russian national Vladimir Dunaev, who is in pre-trial detention in Ohio on cybercrime charges. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there are “certain contacts” on a prisoner swap, but such discussions must “continue in complete silence.” The U.S. special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, Roger Carstens, added that Washington must wait on the cooperation of Moscow, saying that Russian officials are unwilling to “really talk to us about [Gershkovich] yet.” Russia has previously said it will not discuss a prisoner swap that includes Gershkovich’s release until he is handed a verdict by a court, though a date for his trial has yet to be set. Reports of the discussions on a possible prisoner exchange follow U.S. ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy’s visit with Gershkovich in Moscow’s Lefortovo prison, as well as Russian state TV’s announcement that Russian embassy employees have met with Dunaev for the first time. Wall Street Journal New York Times Washington Post Reuters
Russia’s Medvedev Claims 185,000 Joined Russian Army This Year. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev claimed on Tuesday that 185,000 new recruits have joined the Russian army as contract soldiers since the beginning of 2023. Medvedev added that about 109,000 of these new recruits are in the reserves, and almost 10,000 new recruits had joined in the last week. He added that the recent Wagner Group mutiny had not shaken the Russian people’s support for the government or military; comments that came after Russia announced a plan to boost the size of its army by at least 30 percent to 1.5 million troops. Reuters
Russia Reiterates Black Sea Grain Deal Extension Unlikely, Rejects EU Proposal on Russian Agricultural Bank. Russia’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that it rejects a reported European Union proposal to create a subsidiary that would reconnect Moscow to the global financial network, which is intended to preserve a Black Sea grain deal that allows Ukraine to export food to global markets. Russia has threatened to withdraw from the deal, which expires July 17, claiming that West has not amended the agreement to consider Russian demands, including facilitating Russian food and fertilizer exports, resuming exports of agricultural equipment to Russia, and reconnecting Russian Agricultural Bank to the global SWIFT banking payment system. Al Jazeera Financial Times
Asia and Oceania
China Cancels Planned Visit by EU Foreign Policy Chief. The EU announced on Tuesday that China has canceled a planned meeting between EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. The meeting was originally set for July 10 to discuss topics like EU-China relations, the Ukraine war, trade issues and human rights. An EU spokesperson said no reason was given for the cancellation and that the bloc “must now look for alternatives” for a new meeting date. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed the cancellation, without giving a reason, but did not dismiss the possibility of a future meeting, saying Beijing invites Borrell to visit “at the earliest time convenient to both sides.” This is the second time this year that Borrell’s trip was scrapped, after his trip in April was canceled following his COVID-19 diagnosis. South China Morning Post Reuters
EU, Japan Boosting Security Ties. The EU and Japan reportedly will upgrade security ties under a new cooperation framework. The arrangement is set to be finalized for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel next week in Brussels. According to a draft of a joint summit statement, the framework will upgrade EU-Japan security ties through regular ministerial-level meetings and increased coordination on maritime, space, cyber and misinformation threats. The draft adds that the EU and Japan are also considering joint drills in Asia in which the EU flag will be flown next to local ones. The framework expands on conventional EU-Japan cooperation on economic issues amid concerns about China’s increasing military strength and assertiveness. Nikkei Asia
Chinese Fighter Jets Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line, Taiwan Decries ‘Disinformation’ About Safety. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports that eight Chinese fighter jets crossed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday. The ministry added that four Chinese warships joined in a “joint combat patrol” in the area. The move came as Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with a U.S. congressional delegation led by Representative Kevin Hern, who called for “support for Taiwan as an independent and sovereign nation.” Taiwan deputy foreign minister Roy Lee told reporters during the meeting that Taiwan wants foreign officials and academics to visit the island to overcome what he called an “annoying disinformation campaign” that gives them a “mismatched conception and understanding about the situation in Taiwan,” saying that such visits will show that Taiwan is “very calm” and “not provoking or making any dangerous movements” and has a “high level of resilience” to threats from China. Reuters
Taiwan Says Chinese Blockade Unlikely. Taiwan’s Vice Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee said on Tuesday that a full economic blockade imposed by Beijing is highly unlikely, though he also said the revival of a cross-Strait trade agreement is also improbable. Lee said China would still consider the possibility of a blockade as it is the “cheapest way” to intimidate the island, but he said the high costs of the move will lead Beijing to “continue to pay lip service” to the idea rather than go through with it. Until now, no Chinese official has called for a total economic blockade of Taiwan. Since then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, Beijing has suspended imports of more than 2,000 food and industrial goods from 120 Taiwanese companies and has also restarted an investigation into trade barriers imposed by Taiwan on 2,455 Chinese products. South China Morning Post
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israel Ends Jenin Operation. Israeli forces say they have withdrawn from the West Bank city of Jenin, ending a two-day military operation that killed at least 12 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier and forced thousands to flee their homes. The Israeli military says the operation heavily degraded militant groups operating out of the Jenin refugee camp, adding that its forces had seized significant amounts of military equipment, bomb-making materials, and money. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged further military action as necessary, saying the Jenin operation was “not a one-off” and that Israel will “eradicate terrorism wherever we see it.” As the operation ended, militants from Gaza launched missiles into Israel early Wednesday, which Israel said its defenses intercepted. In response, Israeli forces launched air strikes in Gaza that it said targeted an underground weapons manufacturing facility run by Hamas. Associated Press New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Tel Aviv Car Ramming and Stabbing Attack Injures 7. A driver in Tel Aviv allegedly rammed his car into pedestrians and then tried to stab civilians on Tuesday, according to Israeli officials. The attack injured at least seven people. An armed civilian shot the attacker dead. Israeli police described the incident as a “terror attack.” Hamas in a statement claimed responsibility for the attack, and said it was a response to Israel’s ongoing operation in the city Jenin. BBC CNN Financial Times New York Times Reuters
Egypt, Turkey Appoint Ambassadors. Egypt and Turkey appointed ambassadors to each other's capitals, marking the biggest step the two countries have taken in normalizing diplomatic relations. Diplomatic relations between Egypt and Turkey broke down in 2013 after Egypt’s then-army chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi ousted the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Mursi, who was an ally of Turkey. Ankara accused Cairo of backing groups seeking to undermine the Turkish government and expelled Egypt’s ambassador. Sisi, now Egypt’s president, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed in May to reinstate envoys to each other's countries. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Sudan Clashes Intensify Around Capital, Army Trying to Sever Supply Routes. Sudan’s army is attempting to sever the supply routes used by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to get reinforcements into Sudan’s capital Khartoum, triggering intense fighting in Omdurman in the west of the capital. Residents report seeing several ground battles, as well as heavy artillery and air strikes fired by the army. The RSF claimed to have downed a fighter jet, and videos from witnesses appear to confirm this, showing pilots ejecting from an aircraft before it crashes. The army has not commented on the situation. Locals said that the fighting on Tuesday was the most intense violence in weeks. On Monday, South Darfur tribal leaders declared loyalty to the RSF, an action that could cause the conflict to surge further and potentially prolong the war. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
U.S. Judge Orders Biden Administration to Limit Contact With Social Media Companies. A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that the federal government must limit communication with social-media companies about content on their platforms. The ruling concluded that the Biden administration’s “Orwellian” moves to moderate and police online content violate the First Amendment. The ruling came in a lawsuit from the Republican attorney generals of Missouri and Louisiana, who alleged that the Biden administration formed a “federal censorship enterprise” to suppress content such as critical views of Covid-19 health policies, origins of Covid-19, the Hunter Biden laptop story and election security. The U.S. Justice Department is expected to appeal the injunction, which is among the most consequential decisions to shape the ongoing debate over the government's role in moderating content put out by private companies and how to balance it with ensuring the protection of legitimate government speech and valid discussion on controversial topics. New York Times Politico Wall Street Journal
U.S. Cyber Authorities Challenged With Social Media Ruling. The ruling limiting the Biden administration’s contact with social-media companies potentially complicates the work of U.S. cyber authorities, officials said. The preliminary injunction imposes these limits on key cybersecurity agencies and officials, including CISA Director Jen Easterly and her agency, as well as the Justice Department, FBI, and Department of Homeland Security. The judge behind the ruling said his decision aimed to stop such government actors from being able to “pick what is true and what is false.” The ruling does have some exceptions, especially for CISA, to allow relevant authorities to contact social-media companies to “detect, prevent, or mitigate malicious cyber activity” and addressing “criminal efforts to suppress voting, to provide illegal campaign contributions, [plans] of cyber-attacks against election infrastructure, or foreign attempts to influence operations.” Still, it is unclear how cyber authorities will be limited on these matters in practice. The ruling also comes amid wider scrutiny of cyber authorities over supposed censorship, with some lawmakers specifically targeting CISA for wrongdoing, which the agency denies. Washington Post
Netherlands Urges Response to China Chipmaking Metal Controls, Beijing Warns of Further Action. The Netherlands on Tuesday called on the EU to respond to China’s decision to impose controls on the export of two key chipmaking metals, gallium and germanium. The move came after the Netherlands passed export controls on advanced chip-making equipment aimed at hobbling China’s semiconductor industry. The Dutch foreign ministry said it is up to the EU to respond as it has authority on the bloc’s trade policy. The EU earlier expressed concern about the controls, urging Beijing to limit them to those only needed to protect national security. Chinese state media called the export controls on the metals a “warning” to the U.S. that China will not be isolated from global supply chains. The Global Times said the Western “technological iron curtain” will have consequences for global supply chains and that the U.S. will not be able to ignore this as Beijing takes “legitimate and reasonable measures” in response. Similarly, China Daily quoted a former top Chinese official who said the controls were a “well-thought-out heavy punch” and will be “just the start” of China’s response if Western measures against Chinese technological development continue. Al Jazeera Reuters
CISA Warns of Cardiac Device System Vulnerability. CISA issued a warning about a severe vulnerability in a cardiac device from medical device company Medtronic. The issue impacts the company’s Paceart Optima software, which stores and retrieves cardiac device data. Medtronic said that if the vulnerability is exploited, it could allow a threat actor to delete, steal or modify cardiac device data, as well as hack into a healthcare organization’s network. Experts note that the vulnerability does not pose a threat to the actual cardiac device but threatens healthcare organization’s ability to use data from the devices, which could impact healthcare operations. Experts also noted that the vulnerability is simple enough to exploit that it would be useful for ransomware groups that usually target healthcare organizations. The Record
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