Report for Wednesday, July 31, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY’S REPORT

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran

Russia Launches Year's 'Most Massive' Drone Attack On Kyiv

U.S strikes kills 4 at Iraq PMF security agency base south of Baghdad.

U.S. pledges $500 million in new military aid to Philippines amid rising regional tensions

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran.   Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran after attending the inauguration on Tuesday of the new Iranian president. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas said Wednesday.  According to the AP, Hamas said Haniyeh was killed “in a Zionist airstrike on his residence in Tehran.”  The announcement came hours after Israel said its airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut. Haniyeh was usually based in Qatar. The killing on Iranian soil is likely to worsen regional tensions. In the West Bank, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Haniyeh’s killing, calling it a “cowardly act and dangerous development.” Political factions in the occupied territory called for strikes to protest the killing. In April, Israeli airstrikes killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington would try to ease tensions but said the U.S. would help defend Israel if it were attacked.  Qatar’s Prime Minster reacted angrily to the news and asked how negotiations can succeed when one side “assassinates the negotiator”.  Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has signaled that Tehran will respond and, in a message, clearly intended for Israel said “You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.” CNN Wall Street Journal Sky News Independent AP News Reuters New York Times  Haaretz 

Israeli airstrike kills senior Hezbollah military commander blamed for killing children in Golan Heights.  Israeli officials said  that a targeted airstrike on Beirut at around 7:40 p.m. (1640 GMT) Tuesday killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah's most senior military commanders. Though Hezbollah denied responsibility, the Israeli government blamed the militant group and specifically Shukr for Saturday’s rocket strike that killed 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field in Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. “Hezbollah crossed the red line,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a social-media post after the strike.  Shukr goes back to Hezbollah’s early days.  U.S. officials say he played a central role in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 American personnel.  In 2019, the U.S. designated him a global terrorist. He was sanctioned, and the U.S. offered a $5 million reward for information about him. Israel's military said that Shukr oversaw Hezbollah's most advanced weaponry, force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against Israel. Hezbollah and Israel fought a major war in 2006 and have been trading fire since the eruption of the Gaza war in October. The Israeli airstrike also killed three civilians including a woman and two children, and injured 74 people, the New York Times and Reuters reported. Hezbollah said Shukr was in the building targeted by the Israeli strike but did not confirm his fate.  Israeli Defense Forces/X  Reuters  Reuters CNN  New York Times  Associated Press  Wall Street Journal  Reuters New York Times

European leaders urge calm in Mideast.  European leaders are piling on diplomatic efforts in hopes of heading off a regional war in the Middle East in the wake of a rocket attack that killed 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom have reached out to counterparts in Lebanon, Israel and Iran, urging them to show restraint. France and Italy have hundreds of troops stationed in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), in the country's southern region where Israel and Hezbollah have frequently exchanged fire in the past month.  Politico EU

Israeli forces pull out of Khan Younis after a week of fighting Hamas remnants.  Thousands of Palestinians returned to Khan Younis Tuesday after Israeli forces pulled out.  The Israeli military said its forces killed more than 150 Palestinian gunmen during the week-long raid.  The Hamas-run Gaza media office said 255 Palestinians were killed and 300 were during the incursion.  Reuters

Gazans face a worsening water crisis. The Israeli military blew up more than 30 water wells in Rafah and Khan Younis in July, a municipality official and residents said.  Gaza's only aquifer is now contaminated with seawater and sewage. Gaza City has lost nearly all its water production capacity, with 88% of its water wells and 100% of its desalination plants damaged or destroyed, Oxfam said in a recent report. Reuters

Gaza’s humanitarian zone shrinks to 13% of the territory. The Israeli military has designated just one diminishing area of the Gaza Strip as a “humanitarian zone.” On Saturday the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of two more sections of central Gaza, shrinking the safe zone from nearly 17 percent of the Gaza Strip to 13 percent.   New York Times 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Launches Year's 'Most Massive' Drone Attack on Kyiv. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed more than 40 Russian drones that attacked Kyiv early on Wednesday in what the Ukrainian capital's military administration called "the most massive attack of 2024." The air-raid alert lasted for more than seven hours, with the drones attacking the city in waves from all directions, Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv's military administration, said on Telegram. The attack was the seventh launched on Kyiv this month, he said, adding, "At this moment, according to the operational report, there are no casualties or damage in Kyiv." RFE/RL Kyiv Independent Reuters 

Ukraine says it struck weapons depot in Russia's Kursk region. Ukraine's military struck a Russian weapons storage depot in Kursk, observing explosions despite Russian air defenses, Ukrainian authorities said on Wednesday. Russia claimed to have downed a Neptune missile and a drone over Kursk, plus 18 more drones elsewhere. Ukraine has targeted strategic sites like power substations and oil depots using domestically produced long-range drones while also aiming to boost its long-range missile production. Ukraine's air force reported repelling a major Russian drone attack, downing all 89 drones targeting Kyiv and other regions. Reuters  Kyiv Independent 

U.S. to Arm Ukraine’s F-16 Jets With Advanced Weapons. The U.S. will arm Ukraine's F-16 jets with advanced weapons, including air-to-ground munitions and air-to-air missiles, addressing a critical need as Western countries supply the aircraft. Denmark and the Netherlands will begin delivering F-16s this summer, followed by Belgium and Norway. Training and maintenance pose challenges, with Ukrainian pilots and technicians needing to adapt quickly. While the F-16s are expected to bolster Ukraine's military, they are not expected to change the war's dynamics immediately. The jets will be used primarily for close-air support and air defense, pushing Russian forces back from front lines. Wall Street Journal

Ukraine fencer's Olympic medal 'for athletes Russia killed.’ Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan won a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics, dedicating her victory to her war-torn country and fallen athletes. This is her fifth Olympic medal, but she considers it the most meaningful due to Russia’s ongoing war against her homeland. “It’s for athletes who couldn't come here because they were killed by Russia,’’ she said. Cheered on by a supportive French crowd, she highlighted the difficulties of competing while her home is under attack from Moscow. Kharlan has become a symbol for Ukrainian athletes, especially after her 2023 disqualification for refusing to shake hands with a Russian competitor. Deutsche Welle

Ukraine Is Conscripting Thousands More Troops. But Are They Ready? Ukraine is rapidly conscripting thousands of troops to fill gaps on the front lines, though many recruits are still undergoing training or are not combat-ready, according to officials and military analysts. The mobilization has yet to significantly bolster battlefield forces, despite receiving more conscripts. Ukraine has drafted up to 30,000 people monthly since May under a new law, yet troop shortages remain a major issue. Russian forces have managed to break through weakened Ukrainian lines by overwhelming them with waves of ground assaults. And the Ukrainian Army has not had enough soldiers to mount large-scale counterattacks. Ukraine faces challenges in training and equipping these new soldiers adequately, with President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledging delays in weapons deliveries and insufficient training. New York Times 

Putin doubles signing bonuses for volunteers to fight in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin increased upfront payments for volunteers to fight in Ukraine to 400,000 roubles ($4,651), with regional authorities expected to match this amount. The minimum annual wage for privates in their first year of service is now 3.25 million roubles ($37,791), exceeding the average Russian wage by more than threefold. Moscow offers even higher payments. These measures aim to avoid a new nationwide mobilization but may create a wage spiral. Volunteers also receive loan payment exemptions and state guarantees. Approximately 190,000 people have volunteered this year, compared to 490,000 in 2023. Reuters

Kyiv hails dialogue with Beijing, hints at potential Zelenskiy-Xi meeting. Ukraine has invited China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, for a visit amid increasing dialogue between the two nations. This follows Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's recent visit to China, signaling dynamic developments in their relationship. Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesperson, Heorhii Tykhyi, indicated ongoing efforts for a future meeting between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Xi Jinping, who have only spoken once since the war began. Ukraine seeks deeper bilateral talks and emphasizes that discussions with Russia must respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. China, the world's second-largest economy, has provided diplomatic backing to Russia and helped keep its wartime economy afloat. Reuters

As War Gets Bleaker, More Ukrainians Appear Open to a Peace Deal. Amid the war's toll, more Ukrainians seem open to peace talks with Russia, although most still oppose ceding any territory, including Crimea. Recent polls show a shift: 44% favor negotiations, and nearly a third would consider territorial concessions - ​​more than three times as many as the year before.

In Ukraine, the third year of the war is grueling: The Russians are inching forward every day, and Ukraine has been unable to mount a successful counteroffensive since 2022. The country has been beset by frequent power outages and a growing death toll. Ongoing Western support is uncertain. Ukrainians express mixed feelings. President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks a return to 1991 borders, while Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from four contested regions. Some fear that a peace deal could compromise Ukraine's security and sovereignty, yet the desire for an end to the war rises. Ukrainians also remain skeptical that Russia would honor any peace deal.  New York Times 

Ukraine businesses furious over government-proposed tax hikes to fund fight against Russia. The Ukrainian government and businesses are clashing over a proposed tax hike intended to fund the fight against Russia. The Finance Ministry announced a draft budget increase of Hr 500 billion ($12 billion) for defense, partly financed by new taxes, including a war tax increase for individuals from 1% to 5%, and a 1% corporate military tax, aiming to raise $3.3 billion by year-end. Business groups, including the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, oppose the hike, fearing it will pressure struggling businesses and promote tax evasion. Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko defended the plan, stressing the urgent need for military funding. Lawmaker Danylo Hetmantsev acknowledged the proposal’s flaws but deemed the tax increase necessary to address the deficit. The amendments, part of the 2024 budget, require parliamentary approval and presidential assent. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine needs additional $12-15 billion from partners in 2025 'because the war will continue,' finance minister says. Ukraine will need an additional $12-15 billion in foreign financial support in 2025, as the war with Russia is expected to continue, according to Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko. Existing pledges from international partners, including the International Monetary Fund’s $15.6 billion loan program, are insufficient. Marchenko emphasized the need for a financial buffer, as current and future economic pressures necessitate more aid. Ukraine received $42.5 billion from donors last year and will need similar support this year. The government is also seeking new revenue sources domestically, including tax hikes, to contribute to its financial stability. Kyiv Independent

Zelensky signs law allowing Ukraine debt payment suspension. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law allowing the suspension of foreign debt payments until October 1, potentially marking a sovereign default. Ukraine has a preliminary deal to restructure nearly $20 billion in international debt, its second such rework in a decade. The deal, expected to be approved by bondholders, includes a 37% nominal haircut on bonds, saving $11.4 billion over three years. A short-term default is seen as less impactful than one without a deal. Reuters

Russia vs. Ukraine: the biggest war of the fake news era. Russia’s war on Ukraine is being heavily influenced by disinformation campaigns, with fake news targeting both military and civilian populations. In April, Kharkiv residents received fake evacuation alerts, causing panic. Russian disinformation, often spread via SMS, Telegram, and social media, surged to 2,500 false posts daily during the Kharkiv offensive. Russian tactics included deploying drones to send misleading messages. The war has highlighted the role of digital disinformation, complicating efforts to maintain accurate communication and affecting public morale and behavior. Ukrainians are particularly vulnerable to digital disinformation; more than three-quarters of the population get their news from social media, far more than any other source of information, according to a study commissioned by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2023. Reuters

‘Nowhere is safe in Belgorod’: Fears grip Russian region bordering Ukraine. Residents of Belgorod, a Russian region bordering Ukraine that served as a base for the Kremlin’s full-scale invasin in 2022, live in fear due to repeated counterattacks by Kyiv. The regional capital, only 40 kilometers from Ukraine, has faced artillery and drone strikes, causing death and destruction. More than 200 residents have been killed in hostilities since 2022, according to the regional governor. In response, President Vladimir Putin has ordered the creation of a buffer zone. Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian military at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts, said: “The strikes damage Russia’s logistics and economic activity, and they demoralize the Russian population which has been mostly pro-war.” Al Jazeera 

Kyiv strikes Russian oil depot; 2 Russian bombers hit in earlier attack. Ukrainian forces struck the oil depot Logistics Center №43 in Russia's Kursk Oblast overnight on Tuesday, causing a fire. Earlier, Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov claimed four Ukrainian missiles were intercepted. The attack, carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine and the Armed Forces, follows previous strikes on power substations and another oil depot in the region. Kursk Oblast, bordering Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, has faced regular Ukrainian attacks on military and infrastructure targets. Kyiv Independent

2 bombers damaged in last week's attack on airfield in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, HUR says. Two Tu-22M3 bombers were damaged in a July 25 strike on Olenya airfield in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, Ukrainian military intelligence said Tuesday. The attack also targeted airfields in Engels, Saratov Oblast, and Diagilevo, Ryazan Oblast. Ukraine frequently uses drones to target Russian airfields and infrastructure, aiming to disrupt Russia's oil processing and military capabilities. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine open to consultations with EU on Russian oil transit, Foreign Ministry says. Ukraine is open to consultations with the European Union regarding the transit of Russian Lukoil's oil. Kyiv blocked Lukoil's pipeline oil transit to Central Europe in June to cut off Kremlin income, affecting supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries turned to the EU for intervention, claiming Kyiv violated the association agreement. EU ambassadors are not sympathetic to Budapest's and Bratislava's complaints, Politico reported on Monday.  The Slovak leadership threatened repercussions against Ukraine, reminding Slovakia's key role as an electricity supplier amid Ukraine's energy deficit caused by Russian strikes. Budapest, in turn, said it will continue blocking the disbursement $7 billion from the European Peace Facility (EPF) for Ukraine military aid until Kyiv allows the transit of Russia's Lukoil oil. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine signs two contracts with domestic defense industry worth $121 million, Umerov says. Ukraine signed two contracts totaling $121 million with domestic defense companies, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Tuesday. These deals are crucial for strengthening the Armed Forces and supporting Ukraine's economy and industry. The specifics of the contracts were not disclosed, but Umerov inspected mortar rounds and a truck-mounted machine gun. This move aligns with Ukraine's push to boost domestic weapons production amid uncertainties about foreign supplies. Ukraine's defense industry capacity is around $20 billion, with aims to attract $10 billion in foreign investments for 2024. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall plans to establish factories in Ukraine to aid this effort. Ukraine has its own versions of drones, sea drones, and planned versions of air defense systems. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine needs to increase nuclear power capacity to overcome problems with electricity generation, US official says. Ukraine must enhance its nuclear power capacity to address electricity shortages caused by Russian attacks, stated U.S. special representative Penny Pritzker during her Kyiv visit. Recent Russian strikes have caused over $1 billion in damage to Ukraine's power grid. Pritzker emphasized nuclear power as a quick solution, with U.S. and international partners aiding Ukraine's energy recovery. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukraine’s largest, remains under Russian control, but Energoatom is building new reactor units at Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant to exceed Zaporizhzhia's capacity. Ukraine faces potential severe winter blackouts if energy facilities aren't repaired and protected from further attacks. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Tuesday, July 30, 2024. Russian forces conducted five mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29-30, signaling the start of Russia's forecasted summer offensive. Russia's willingness to endure significant armored vehicle losses without achieving substantial gains will likely strain their military while aiming to deplete Ukrainian capabilities. North Korea may be increasing the volume and variety of weapons supplied to Russia. The Kremlin is pushing Russian information actors onto controllable social media platforms, facing backlash from ultranationalist milbloggers and opposition journalists. Russia promotes educational programs to train Russians in conducting and countering information operations. Russian officials and the Russian Orthodox Church advocate codifying an ideology into law that claims Ukraine is not a sovereign state. The UK newspaper The Times reported on Russian indoctrination of deported Ukrainian children through military-patriotic education programs.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

U.S. Army ceases payments to soldier detained by Russia, may prosecute him for breaking rules. The U.S. Army has cut off payments of wages and allowances to Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, 34, who was sentenced to almost four years in a Russian penal colony for theft and threatening murder. Black, who traveled to Russia by flying through China without authorization and reportedly had an extramarital affair with a Russian woman, broke several Army rules. His Russian girlfriend reported him to the police in Vladivostok after an argument, leading to his arrest and conviction for stealing money and threatening to kill her. The U.S. Army is considering prosecuting Black upon his return to the U.S. for his unauthorized actions. His case has added to the challenges faced by American officials dealing with other high-profile detentions in Russia. Despite the charges in Russia, the Army has not provided Black with special military counsel. The decision to change Black's status to "Confined Civilian Authority" (CCA) without pay or allowances has been controversial, as it may appear to legitimize the Russian proceedings. The Army might opt against prosecuting Black if he serves his full sentence in Russia, considering it as a reason for leniency. Reuters Military

Son of infamous drug lord El Chapo pleads not guilty in Chicago court. Joaquín Guzmán López, one of the four sons of ex-Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, pleaded not guilty to narcotics, money laundering, and firearms charges in a Chicago federal court on Tuesday.  His attorney, Jeffrey Lichtman stressed that Guzmán López has no agreement with U.S. officials.  The circumstances of his flight from Mexico to Texas, alongside Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, the alleged co-founder of the Sinaloa cartel, remain unclear. The Mexican government suggested Guzmán López intended to surrender, but his attorney denied any formal cooperation. The arrest has sparked speculation, with some stating Guzmán López tricked Zambada into boarding the plane, and others, like Zambada's lawyer, claiming it was a violent kidnapping. Both men face multiple charges related to leading one of the world's most powerful drug trafficking operations. The case adds to the ongoing issues Washington faces with high-profile cartel members and highlights the powerful influence and violent history of the Sinaloa cartel, notorious for trafficking vast amounts of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and fentanyl into the U.S. The situation remains complex, with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador calling for transparency from the U.S. regarding the incident. Reuters The Guardian CNN 

U.S. announces a delay of two weeks for start of new China tariffs. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on Tuesday announced a delay of at least two weeks for some of the U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles (EVs) and their batteries, computer chips, and medical products. Initially set to take effect on August 1, the delay allows USTR to review 1,100 public comments and make a final determination in August, with tariffs starting two weeks later. President Biden decided to maintain and increase tariffs imposed by former President Trump. The new tariffs include a significant increase on Chinese EVs to over 100% and semiconductor duties to 50%. USTR also sought feedback on whether a 25% duty on medical masks and gloves and a 50% tariff on syringes should be higher. The goal of the tariffs is to protect American jobs and industries from China's state-driven excess production capacity, particularly in clean energy sectors. The measures impact $18 billion in Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, solar cells, EVs, critical minerals, and cranes. The tariffs may increase costs significantly, such as an additional $4.5 million per crane for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. In 2023, the U.S. imported $427 billion in goods from China and exported $148 billion. The largest targeted imports, worth $13.2 billion, are lithium-ion batteries. Reuters Ford Authority

New Secret Service head accuses local law enforcement of making critical failure in Trump’s assassination attempt. Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe, during a Senate hearing on Tuesday, expressed frustration that local law enforcement in Butler, PA failed to prevent a shooter from accessing a building where he attempted to assassinate GOP nominee Donald Trump. Rowe stressed that local police were supposed to cover the building, as agreed upon in a face-to-face meeting, but failed to do so. He questioned why the assailant was not detected, showing photos of the roof where police should have been posted. While Rowe criticized local law enforcement's lapse, he also underscored the importance of their partnership with federal agencies, acknowledging their daily efforts in community patrols. However, he bluntly admitted that the Secret Service had assumed state and local police were handling the situation. Rowe also highlighted several technical and communication issues that compromised security, such as relying on text messages instead of radio channels to communicate the threat, as well as poor cellular service at the site. Additionally, Rowe revealed that the agency's radio communications from the rally were not recorded but assured that future recordings would be retained. Politico Wall Street Journal

Harris expected to hold Philadelphia rally with chosen running mate Tuesday.Vice President Kamala Harris will conduct her first rally with her new vice-presidential nominee on August 6th in Philadelphia as part of a four-day tour that includes Michigan and Arizona. This suggests Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro might be her top choice for running mate. The Harris campaign sees Pennsylvania, a state Democrats won back in 2020, as crucial for the upcoming election. Following Philadelphia, Harris and her pick will visit six more locations, including Wisconsin, Detroit, and Las Vegas. The campaign emphasized that no final decision has been made on the running mate. The shortlist includes Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. Shapiro is seen as a strong contender due to his popularity and success in the recent governor's race. Eric Holder Jr., the former attorney general, is leading the vetting process. Candidates are informally auditioning through public appearances and endorsements. Reuters

Some leaders in space sector thrilled at ex-astronaut Mark Kelly’s potential as Vice President.Political leaders in the space sector are enthusiastic about the possibility of Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, becoming the running mate of Vice President Kamala Harris. During a POLITICO event, Senator John Hickenlooper praised Kelly for his national security knowledge, consistency, and character, recounting how Kelly paused his astronaut training to care for his wife, Gabby Giffords, after she was shot, before resuming and commanding a Space Shuttle mission. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson also supported the idea, highlighting Kelly's qualities as a Navy test pilot, astronaut, and devoted husband. Nelson also noted Harris' interest in space, which she demonstrated by maintaining the National Space Council. He said that a Harris-Kelly ticket could bring two strong advocates for space to the White House. Politico

Venezuela vote results unreliable, says OAS and Carter Center, as opposition claims win over incumbent Maduro and protestors flood the streets.  Protesters across Venezuela clashed with security forces on Tuesday, demanding that President Nicolas Maduro acknowledge his loss in Sunday's election, which has been deemed undemocratic by international observers. The protests began soon after the electoral authority declared Maduro the winner, despite claims from the opposition that their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, had twice as many votes. At least 11 people have been killed in election-related incidents. The Carter Center, an Atlanta-based non-profit, stated that the election “cannot be considered democratic” and failed to meet international standards. Many countries have urged Caracas to release the vote tally, and Washington is reportedly considering imposing sanctions for the lack of transparency. In a phone call, U.S. President Joe Biden and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva agreed that Venezuela must release the electoral results from the polling center level. On Tuesday, Maduro accused opposition leaders of inciting violence, and the head of the Congress, Jorge Rodriguez, called for their arrests. Maduro also blamed external forces, including Elon Musk, for alleged attacks on the electoral system. The opposition has accused the government of fraud, and leader Maria Corina Machado continues to urge peaceful demonstrations. Costa Rica offered political asylum to opposition heads, but they vowed to continue their struggle in Venezuela. The situation remains tense, with military support strong for Maduro, and no signs indicating a shift in power. Many Venezuelans are contemplating joining the mass exodus from the country due to the political and economic crisis. Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press Reuters

EUROPE

Have babies for Russia: Putin presses women to embrace patriotism over feminism. Russian President Vladimir Putin is urging women to prioritize childbirth over careers and education to boost the country's population and reinforce traditional family values. This push coincides with the war in Ukraine, which has drained men from the workforce, creating labor shortages. Women are being encouraged to have large families, start childbearing early, and support their husbands, with some promoted to high-level positions to serve as role models. Making sure Russians have “as many children as possible,” Putin said, is “the underlying goal of our state policy.” Critics argue that these policies erode women's rights and aim to create a militarized, nationalistic society. Despite official rhetoric, women's workforce participation remains low, and domestic violence protections have weakened. In 2023, 1.26 million children were born in Russia, 9.5 percent fewer than in 2021, according to Rosstat — the lowest number of births since 1999. Washington Post 

Russia passes new cryptocurrency law in effort to dodge Western sanctions. Russia passed a law allowing businesses to use cryptocurrencies in international trade to evade Western sanctions. Since the invasion, sanctions have targeted Russian financial institutions and entities aiding Moscow. Trade between Russia and China has surged, but Chinese banks are rejecting most Russian payments due to Western pressure. This forces Russian businesses to use costly intermediary services. Lawmaker Anatoly Aksakov called it a historic financial decision. Kyiv Independent

Hungary’s easing of immigration rules for Russians raises espionage fears. Hungary's new "national card" program grants fast-track access to Russians and Belarusians, raising espionage fears and condemnation from the European People's Party (EPP). The program allows work in Hungary for up to two years and eases entry into the broader Schengen area, bypassing European Union restrictions. EPP leader Manfred Weber expressed concerns about national security and potential espionage. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's pro-Kremlin stance and recent peace deal efforts have already strained relations with EU countries, potentially threatening Hungary's Schengen membership. Politico EU

Belarus pardons German sentenced to death. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned a German national who was sentenced to death in June on terrorism and other charges, state media reported on Tuesday. The German was accused of photographing military sites and collaborating with Ukrainian security services, which Kyiv denies. His lawyer had sought a stay of execution, and Lukashenko considered the pardon after the man appealed on state TV. Belarus remains a close ally of Russia, supporting its invasion of Ukraine, and is the only European country still using capital punishment. Deutsche Welle

French rail network vandalism: Investigators probe far-left connections, foreign links. Investigators are probing potential far left and foreign links to the sabotage of France's railway network just before the Olympic Games. The attacks disrupted high-speed lines, affecting travel for 800,000 people. French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin suggested the sabotage, targeting fiber optic cables, was deliberate and well-coordinated, possibly by extreme left-wing groups. A 28-year-old man with links to such groups was arrested, though no direct connection to the sabotage was confirmed. An email from an unknown group claimed responsibility, condemning the rail network and the Olympics. Darmanin also raised concerns about possible foreign involvement, particularly from Russia, given recent destabilization attempts. France 24

UK launches global MQ-9B drone users’ club for allies. The U.K. has launched the MQ-9 International Cooperation Support Partnership (MIC SP) to create a global club for operators and potential buyers of MQ-9B drones, involving NATO and non-NATO countries. The Royal Air Force, building on a 2019 initiative, announced this on July 20, with the program growing from six to 10 nations, including recent additions like Qatar and Sweden. The MIC SP aims to enhance cooperation, interoperability, and joint training among member nations, offering benefits like multinational contracting to share costs. Training will be provided at RAF Waddington, with the program expected to strengthen intelligence and maritime surveillance capabilities. Defense News

Will Russia deploy offensive missiles capable of striking Europe? Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to deploy offensive missiles near Western Europe if the U.S. deploys similar capabilities in Germany by 2026. This response comes after the U.S. stated it would deploy conventional long-range missiles, including SM-6, Tomahawk, and hypersonic weapons, in Germany. Potential Russian missile deployments include ground-launched Kalibr, Iskanders, and the 9M729 cruise missile. The move marks a potential new Euromissile crisis, reminiscent of Cold War tensions, following the collapse of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Putin stated that Russia would consider itself free from its moratorium on developing intermediate-range strike weapons. Defense News 

MIDDLE EAST

U.S strikes kills 4 at Iraq PMF security agency base south of Baghdad. The U.S. conducted what it called a ‘self-defense’ airstrike in Iraq on Tuesday, targeting militants in Musayib, Babil province.  The U.S. says it took the action to prevent an imminent drone threat to American and coalition forces. The strike killed four members of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and injured four others, according to Iraqi medical sources and police, though U.S. officials did not confirm casualties. The attack comes amid rising regional tensions, following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah's top commander. Iraq denounced the strike as a violation of the coalition's mission, calling it a "heinous crime." The PMF, which includes Iran-aligned militias, did not specify who was responsible. This was the first known U.S. strike in Iraq since February, and this incident comes in the wake of ongoing rocket attacks last week on the Ain al-Asad airbase, which houses U.S.-led forces. The PMF is a state-sanctioned group of Iraqi paramilitaries loyal to Iran, contributing to the complex dynamics between Baghdad, Washington, and Tehran. Iraq, which hosts 2,500 U.S. troops, has seen escalating conflicts since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in October, and seeks to start withdrawing coalition troops by September 2025. The issue remains politically charged, with Iran-aligned factions pushing against U.S. presence, while American officials aim to maintain influence without conceding to Iran. Reuters ABC  

Middle East tensions close to boiling over into war, says Moscow. Russia’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said that the Middle East is “balancing on the brink of a global conflict," and that key actors are raising “the stakes." Moscow also accused the U.S. of having a “manic desire” to control the process of political settlement in the region, blaming Washington for the current, volatile situation. Reuters

Iranian President Pezeshkian officially sworn in. Masud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old moderate reformist, was sworn in as Iran's new president on Tuesday after winning a snap election earlier this month. He inherits a struggling economy and a society demanding basic freedoms. The former heart surgeon swore to uphold the constitution and the Islamic republic during the inauguration ceremony, which was attended by officials from various countries and regional allies. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed Pezeshkian and advised that he concentrate on fostering regional relations rather than the West. He replaces President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. Pezeshkian, who defeated hard-liner Saeed Jalili, reaffirmed support for the "axis of resistance" against Israel and the U.S. and called for mutual respect in international relations, vowing to fight against sanctions and pursue normal relations with the world. The U.S., which has said that Iranian elections are neither free nor fair, stated that the election would not change Washington’s approach. Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty New York Times Al Jazeera 

U.S. reveals fresh sanctions on Tehran following swearing in of new president.  The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions against five individuals and seven entities that have assisted Iran's ballistic missile development through its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. The sanctions target individuals and entities in Iran, China, and Hong Kong, involved in procuring key components for Iran's missile and UAV programs. One sanctioned Iranian company, Electro Optic Sairan Industries, contributed to UAVs used by Russian forces in Ukraine. Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson said that these actions aim to curb Iran's destabilizing missile proliferation. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s policy to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and mentioned the implementation of over 600 sanctions on Iranian individuals and entities in order to exert “maximum pressure.” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

Taliban cuts ties with Afghan embassies in the Western nations. The Taliban government announced on Tuesday that it is severing ties with Afghan embassies in several Western countries, accusing the diplomats there of loyalty to the former democratic government. Since the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in 2021, many Afghan foreign missions have been left barely afloat, in a state of uncertainty, as few governments recognize the Taliban. However, the Islamist nationalist movement has managed to appoint new ambassadors in some friendly nations, such as China and Russia. The Taliban's Foreign Ministry criticized the embassies for acting independently and not coordinating with Kabul. The ministry also declared it bears no responsibility for passport and visa issues faced by Afghan staff abroad if they do not recognize Taliban authority. The affected embassies are in the U.K., Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy, Greece, Poland, Sweden, Norway, Canada, and Australia. These establishments have struggled financially, unable to pay staff and bills. In contrast, embassy staff in nations like Spain and the Netherlands have begun engaging with the Taliban government. The Taliban administration’s repressive treatment of women has led many foreign countries, as well as the U.N., to refuse dealings with them. Deutsche Welle Associated Press Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty Barron's 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese vice-premier underscores need for industrial policy at ‘unprecedented’ time.

China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng has emphasized the need for collaboration between China's government and market in order to develop "new quality productive forces" to compete globally amidst pressures from the U.S. and the West. He stressed the importance of both patience and urgency in this long-term project, which involves systematic planning and appropriate measures to prevent missteps. In an article published on Tuesday, the vice-premier noted that scientific and technological innovation is in a period of intensive activity, with advancements in new materials, new energy, and biotechnology reshaping global competition. The government's role is to create a supportive environment with fiscal and tax incentives, while the market should drive technological and industrial innovation. He underlined the importance of regional and industry-specific conditions and cautioned against blindly following trends and said that traditional industries should not be disregarded as outdated but remain crucial to the economy. Strategic emerging industries have grown, making up 13% of China's GDP in 2023, up from 7.6% in 2014. However, He acknowledged weaknesses in key core technologies, regional planning redundancy, and talent shortages. South China Morning Post 

U.S. pledges $500 mln in military aid to Philippines amid uncertainty, rising regional tensions. 

The White House on Tuesday revealed another $500 million package of security assistance to the Philippines, enhancing the defense alliance between Washington and Manila amid escalating tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., who has strong ties with the U.S., hosted a 2+2 session with top U.S. diplomatic and military officials in Manila on July 30th. With this funding, which includes $125 million for Philippine military bases used by American forces, the Biden administration aims to bolster alliances to counter military actions by Russia and China. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized the unprecedented funding to modernize the Philippine military and coast guard, underscoring Washington’s commitment to the alliance. The two nations had previously expanded U.S. access to Philippine military bases near Taiwan, which could be used for combat support if needed. During his 18th trip to the Indo-Pacific, Blinken is visiting six nations in a quest to strengthen alliances in the region. Defense News New York Times Deutsche Welle 

AFRICA

Mediator Angola announces ceasefire agreement in Congo’s eastern conflict. Angola’s presidency on Tuesday announced the agreement of a ceasefire, set to begin August 4th, between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The announcement did not specify the involved parties or the duration of the ceasefire. The Congolese foreign ministry spoke to Reuters, confirming that the ceasefire would be of indefinite duration. This development follows a two-week humanitarian truce in July amid heavy fighting between Congolese government troops and M23 rebels, insurgents which the Congo maintains are being supported by the Rwandan government. Rwanda staunchly denies this accusation. The U.N. believes that the conflict in North Kivu province has displaced over 1.7 million people, contributing to a record 7.2 million displaced in the DRC. Reuters Barron's

Witnesses say five killed after drone strike on eastern Sudanese base during army chief visit.A drone strike targeted the Gibeit army base in eastern Sudan during a visit by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, resulting in five deaths, according to eyewitnesses and an army statement. The attack, which occurred during a graduation ceremony, raises doubts about efforts to end Sudan's civil war. Footage from the attack panic and running among attendees. General Burhan was unharmed, as he had been in Port Sudan. This drone strike is the closest to Port Sudan in a series of recent attacks on army locations, which have also hit several other areas. The RSF has not claimed responsibility for the drone strikes. The latest assault coincides with the army's conditional acceptance of U.S.-proposed peace talks in Switzerland, to which the RSF responded by refusing to negotiate with the Islamist faction within the civil service. The paramilitary has been intensifying its efforts to capture more territory, displacing over 165,000 people in recent weeks. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Inaugural Pentagon cyber policy chief nominee sails through Armed Services Committee.  The Senate Armed Services Committee has approved Michael Sulmeyer, the Army's top digital adviser, as the Pentagon's first cyber policy chief, advancing his nomination to the Senate floor. Sulmeyer, who has held roles at the National Security Council, U.S. Cyber Command, and the NSA, emphasized the significance of cyber policy in addressing threats from China and Russia and the importance of AI in expanding the U.S.'s digital capabilities and vulnerabilities. His priorities include building "combat power" and "sustained readiness" in digital forces, recruiting and retaining skilled personnel, and strengthening the "Defend Forward" strategy to counter cyber threats at their source. The Senate is expected to confirm his nomination before the August recess.  The Record

ANALYSIS- The U.S. Wanted to Knock Down Huawei. It’s Only Getting Stronger.  The impact of the Mate 60 Pro's launch was celebrated by Huawei researchers and engineers in a gathering at a barbecue restaurant on the outskirts of Beijing. The celebration highlighted the collaborative efforts of HiSilicon, Huawei's chip unit, and the broader Huawei team. "You HiSilicon people kick ass," praised one Huawei researcher, recognizing their pivotal role in the project. In response, a HiSilicon engineer underscored the significance of their work in bolstering national resilience against foreign pressure. Another researcher pointed out the company's growing resemblance to a state-owned enterprise, reflecting the deepening integration of national objectives within Huawei's corporate mission. This alignment with state goals underscores the broader narrative of technological self-sufficiency and resilience that is becoming increasingly central to China's strategic vision.  Wall Street Journal

Research team says Beijing developed ultra-fast chip that could double speed of electronic warfare. Researchers from the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC) say that Chinese scientists have developed what could be the world's fastest analogue-to-digital converter (ADC) for military use, significantly enhancing radar signal detection and response times. The new technology can reduce electronic warfare receiver delays from nanoseconds to picoseconds, making responses 91.46% faster. This development gives the Chinese military a crucial edge. The ADC, inspired by electroencephalogram (EEG) monitors, analyzes signals before converting them to digital format, saving over 30% power by only engaging full-power conversion for confirmed radar signals. The chip is based on a mature 28-nanometer process, making it cost-effective and easy to mass-produce. This advancement supports China's shift from defensive to offensive military strategies, as demonstrated by recent electronic warfare exercises and naval operations near North America. The collaboration between UESTC and Huawei Technologies, which began in May last year, has resulted in significant achievements in intelligent detection systems. Despite U.S. sanctions, Huawei has seen substantial profit growth and remains a top employer for telecommunication engineering graduates in China. This progress is part of China's broader push in technological advancements, particularly in the communication industry, where it has built nearly 4 million 5G base stations. South China Morning Post 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell & Chase Moabery contributed to this report.

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