Report for Wednesday, July 24, 2024

THE TOP STORIES IN TODAY’S REPORT

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

U.S., Israel and UAE plan for Gaza’s "day after

EU, US near deal on $50 billion loan to Ukraine

U.N. envoy to Yemen warns of potential ‘devastating’ regional escalation

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

High Stakes for Venezuela – and U.S. – in Crucial VoteThe Cipher Brief 

How U.S. Adversaries are Eyeing Our Presidential ElectionThe Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

U.S., Israel and UAE plan for Gaza’s "day after."  Senior officials from the U.S., Israel and the United Arab Emirates met quietly in Abu Dhabi last Thursday to think about what happens to Gaza after the war ends.  In a meeting hosted by Emirati foreign minister Abdullah Bin Zayed, they discussed an Emirati proposal to send a temporary international mission to Gaza to deal with the humanitarian crisis, law and order, and governance. The international force would enter Gaza at the invitation of the Palestinian Authority, which would have to reform itself. It’s unclear that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would agree to such a plan.  Axios

Polio virus found in Gaza sewage; aid groups searching for other pathogens.  The Israeli military found remnants of poliovirus in untreated sewage in Gaza. World Health Organization officials fear that other pathogens will flourish. Local health authorities have recorded more than 1.7 million infectious disease cases since the war began. The WHO says 66% of hospitals and clinics weren’t operational as of mid-July and that just 16 permanent hospitals are still operating at some capacity.  International organizations are running at least eight field hospitals and nearly 200 health service points serving about 300,000 people a week but aid workers have limited supplies.  WSJ

Netanyahu’s speech to Congress drawing protests, inside and outside Capitol Hill.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s congressional address, scheduled for 2 p.m. Wednesday, is likely to be boycotted by dozens of Democratic lawmakers.  Most of the roughly 100 progressives in Congress are expected to protest in some way.  On Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Capitol Police arrested around 200 people protesting U.S. weapons sales to Israel inside the rotunda of the Cannon House Office Building.  The protest was organized by Jewish Voice for Peace, a national Jewish anti-Zionist organization.  Vice President Kamala Harris, expected to be the Democratic nominee for President, won’t be in the House for Netanyahu’s speech due to a previously scheduled engagement but will meet Netanyahu later. The Washington Post The Hill  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

EU, US near deal on $50 billion loan to Ukraine. The European Union and U.S. are nearing a deal to equally contribute to a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, set to be repaid using profits from invested frozen Russian assets. Each will provide $20 billion, with the remainder covered by the U.K., Japan, and Canada. This agreement aims to finalize the loan by year-end. However, concerns about U.S. taxpayer risk and the need for congressional approval could delay progress. The EU seeks legal assurances to keep Russian assets frozen until the loan is repaid. Politico EU Bloomberg 

Ukraine’s foreign minister seeking ‘common ground’ with China in talks on ending war with Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is seeking "common ground" with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to end the war with Russia. Kuleba’s visit to Beijing is the first by a Ukrainian foreign minister to China since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. In a Tuesday meeting in Guangzhou, Kuleba emphasized the need for a just and stable peace, highlighting China's potential role. Video footage showed both ministers exchanging remarks, with Wang noting the growth in bilateral trade and the normal development of relations. China, which has close ties with Russia, has pushed for a resolution that considers the interests of both sides, a stance differing from Ukrainian and Western demands for a Russian withdrawal. Kuleba's visit, from Tuesday to Friday, includes extensive negotiations, with China expressing readiness to help gather global consensus and resolve the crisis. "We must avoid competing peace plans," Kuleba said. Associated Press RFE/RL Kyiv Independent Reuters 

Zelensky discusses peace, prisoners with senior Vatican official. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the Vatican's peace and prisoner release efforts during talks on Tuesday with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State. Zelensky emphasized the importance of the Vatican's role in achieving Ukraine's peace plan and protecting lives. Relations between Ukraine and the Vatican had been strained due to comments by Pope Francis. Ukraine objected to the pope’s remarks this year that Kyiv should have the courage of the “white flag” and negotiate an end to the war. In 2022, the pope said that NATO “barking” at Russia’s door may have led to the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion. However, recent discussions reflect a positive shift. About 5 million eastern-rite Catholics in Ukraine underscore the strength of ties. Reuters

Top Zelensky aide speaks by phone with Kamala Harris adviser. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, spoke with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris's national security adviser, Phil Gordon, on Tuesday to discuss the frontline situation and Russia's aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities. Yermak emphasized the need for modern Western air defense systems. Harris would likely maintain continuity in U.S. support for Ukraine if elected president. Reuters

Pentagon reaffirms support for Ukraine in first defense heads call since Biden's campaign exit. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed support for Ukraine in a call Tuesday with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. This was their first call since President Joe Biden announced he wouldn't seek reelection, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. They discussed frontline developments and Ukraine's urgent battlefield needs. "I once again highlighted the importance and urgency of lifting the bans on long-range fires," Umerov said. Reuters 

Estonia will support Ukraine 'until victory,' new prime minister says. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal pledged support for Ukraine until its victory against Russia. Michal, who replaced Kaja Kallas, aims to maintain Estonia's strong defense and plans to raise €1 billion for ammunition by September. He also reaffirmed Estonia's support for Ukraine's European Union and NATO aspirations. Reuters

‘I know we will win – and how’: Ukraine’s top general on turning the tables against Russia. Col. Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, told the Guardian that he is focused on overcoming the challenges posed by Russia's superior resources and numbers. The Russian invasion force has grown from 100,000 to 520,000 troops, with an expected increase to 690,000 by the end of 2024.  The figures for Ukraine have not been made public. Syrskyi said that without mobilization he could not create new reserves and brigades, which were needed as Russia multiplied its own land forces. “It’s very important for us that all citizens of Ukraine fulfill their constitutional duty,” he said. Russia's tanks have doubled to 3,500, artillery systems have tripled, and armored personnel carriers have increased from 4,500 to 8,900. Despite recent setbacks, Syrskyi emphasized the importance of Western air defense systems, drones, and maintaining Ukrainian morale. He notes that Russia’s recent gains are tactical and Ukraine remains committed to regaining its 1991 borders. He highlighted that Russia's casualties are three times higher than Ukraine's. Guardian

Vadym Sukharevsky, the man in charge of Ukraine’s drones. Colonel Vadym Sukharevsky, commander of Ukraine's new Unmanned Systems Force, is leading efforts to enhance Ukraine's drone warfare capabilities. Known for his quick thinking and technological expertise, Sukharevsky aims to counter Russia's superior numbers with innovative tactics. His new command faces challenges, including a low budget and the need to integrate different military cultures. Ukraine’s focus on drone diversification and rapid technological adaptation helps maintain parity with Russia. Sukharevsky emphasizes that drones will complement traditional forces, improving reconnaissance and precision strikes. The Economist

Russian attacks kill 4, injure 17 across Ukraine, hit Swiss NGO office in Kharkiv. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least four people and injured at least 17, including children, regional authorities said Wednesday. A missile attack in Kharkiv at 5 a.m. hit the office of the Swiss Foundation for Mine Action, damaging an industrial building, five cars, and a house. In Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, three people were killed and three injured. Additional attacks injured residents in Lisne, Marhanets, and the Nikopol district. A 77-year-old woman died in Kherson, and three were injured in Odesa. Ukrainian forces downed 17 of 23 Shahed-type drones targeting Odesa. Kyiv Independent

Moscow car bomb attack injures Russian intelligence officer, media reports say. A Russian foreign intelligence officer was injured by a car bomb in Moscow, losing his feet in the attack on a Toyota Land Cruiser, Kremlin state media said on Wednesday. His wife was also injured, and five other cars were damaged. The officer serves in the GRU. CCTV footage captured the explosion. Russia's Interior Ministry confirmed two injuries and launched a criminal investigation. The perpetrators remain unidentified. Ukraine denied involvement, suggesting a malfunction with the car's gas equipment. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine confirms Russian ferry 'seriously damaged' in attack on Crimea. A Ukrainian attack on occupied Crimea seriously damaged a Russian ferry used for transporting military equipment, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces confirmed on Tuesday. The ferry "Slavyanin" was attacked at the Port of Kavkaz in the Kerch Strait. Russia claimed to have downed 21 Ukrainian drones during the attack. The ferry, crucial for logistical connections between Crimea and mainland Russia, is the third and last railway ferry in the region. One person was reported killed. Kyiv Independent

In push for more Ukraine troops, city of Moscow hikes pay for contract soldiers to $60,000 a year. Moscow residents who join the fight in Ukraine will receive a down payment of 1.9 million roubles ($21,777), bringing their annual pay to 5.2 million roubles ($59,600), significantly higher than the average Russian wage. This increase includes contributions from the city, the defense ministry, and federal handouts. These payments aim to avoid another nationwide mobilization and have led to 190,000 volunteers this year. However, economists warn that such high wages could cause imbalances as other workers demand similar pay increases. Moscow, with 45,000 volunteers, has been slower in contributing troops compared to other regions. Reuters 

Russia building forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, military says. Russia is increasing its military presence in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, adding at least 2,000 troops recently, according to Dmytro Lykhovii of Ukraine's Tavria group. Despite this buildup, there are no signs of an imminent offensive. Russia has about 90,000 troops in the area and continues to strike civilian targets. Meanwhile, Russia's offensive in Kharkiv Oblast has stalled, with heavy troop losses. Kyiv Independent 

Thousands in Ukraine attend funeral of former lawmaker and critic of Russia who was killed in Lviv. Thousands attended the funeral in Lviv for Iryna Farion, a former lawmaker and advocate for the Ukrainian language. Farion, 60, was fatally shot by an unknown assailant on Friday. Known for promoting the Ukrainian language and criticizing Russian-speaking officials, she served in parliament from 2012 to 2014. Her killing is being investigated as an assassination. Farion is remembered as a passionate patriot and nationalist. Associated Press

DTEK aims to recover 60-70% of its power generation capacity by October. DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, aims to restore 60-70% of its power generation capacity by October, following damage from Russian shelling. Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk stated that DTEK lost 90% of its generation and plans to use its funds and old European equipment for restoration. All DTEK plants lack walls and roofs, and restored equipment may not function in low temperatures. The restoration is estimated to cost $350-400 million. Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to rolling blackouts since May 15. Kyiv Independent

Under Relentless Russian Attacks, Ukrainian Power Plant Workers Race To Get The Lights Back On. Under relentless Russian attacks, Ukrainian power plant workers face constant danger while striving to restore electricity. Ihor, a senior machinist, recalls the terror of the first strike in October 2022 and the ongoing threat. The plant has suffered damage, with recent attacks destroying parts of the facility. Workers are accustomed to frequent air-raid alarms and filing into bomb shelters. Ukraine now relies heavily on energy imports. Workers continue round-the-clock shifts, hoping for better air defenses to protect the infrastructure. RFE/RL

Hungary to block EU funds for member states until Ukraine allows Lukoil transit. Hungary will block European Union funds for member states supplying munitions to Ukraine until Kyiv allows Russian Lukoil oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced Tuesday. Hungary and Slovakia stopped receiving Lukoil oil after Ukraine's transit ban. Szijjarto stated that the €6.5 billion European Peace Facility compensation for arms transfers would be withheld until the issue is resolved. Hungary and Slovakia requested the European Commission to mediate the dispute, potentially taking the matter to court if unresolved. Hungary remains dependent on Russian oil for its refineries. Reuters

Slovakia Says Ukraine Discord Could Cause Cut in Fuel Exports. Slovakia warned it might reduce fuel exports to neighboring countries if Ukraine maintains sanctions that halted Russian crude oil flow from Lukoil. Slovakia and Hungary, reliant on oil via Ukraine, face potential supply disruptions. Slovakia's economy ministry stated that while immediate energy security isn't at risk, prolonged issues could affect petroleum exports to the Czech Republic and Ukraine. Bloomberg

The EU is putting new pressure on Hungary’s Orban over his outreach to Russia. The European Union has decided not to let Hungary host a strategic meeting next month due to Prime Minister Viktor Orban's recent trips to Moscow and Beijing, seen as undermining EU support for Ukraine. The foreign and defense ministers' meeting will instead take place in Brussels. Orban’s outreach to Russia and China has isolated him politically within the EU, which has strongly condemned his actions. Associated Press 

Ukrainian Lawmakers Approve Presidential Decrees Extending Martial Law. Ukrainian lawmakers on July 23 approved bills to support decrees issued by President Volodymyr Zelensky to extend martial law and a general military mobilization for 90 days starting on Aug. 12. Lawmakers Yaroslav Zheleznyak and Oleksiy Honcharenko said on Telegram that 339 lawmakers voted to extend martial law, while 338 supported the extension of mobilization. Martial law and the general mobilization were last extended in May, the 11th extension. RFE/RL

Ukraine’s soldiers training on Starstreak – here’s why it’s so deadly. On Tuesday, Ukraine's Armed Forces announced that soldiers are training in the U.K. to use the Starstreak missile system. The Starstreak, supplied by the U.K. since March 2022, is a high-speed weapon designed to counter Russian air superiority. It employs three dart-like projectiles guided by a laser matrix, making it effective and resistant to countermeasures. British troops have trained Ukrainian forces on this system, which has downed Russian aircraft, including a Mi-28 helicopter. Ukraine's successes with MANPADS have crimped Russian air missions. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine confronts labor shortage as need for soldiers drains workforce. Ukraine faces a labor shortage as the need for soldiers drains the workforce, impacting the economy but creating new opportunities for women. With men joining the military, many jobs traditionally held by men are now open to women. For example, Tatyiana Ustymenko now works in a coal mine that previously only employed men underground. The shortage has led to increased job openings and higher wages, but also economic strain, with businesses struggling to find workers and potentially reducing economic growth. Washington Post

Ukraine and Moldova in talks about returning draft dodgers. Kyiv and Chisinau are discussing the repatriation of Ukrainian draft dodgers staying in Moldova, some of whom have been granted asylum, according to Ukraine’s ambassador Marko Shevchenko. Men of draft age are prohibited from leaving Ukraine during martial law, with certain exemptions. The BBC reported around 20,000 Ukrainian men have crossed into neighboring countries to escape mobilization, primarily through Moldova and Romania. Many have died attempting dangerous crossings, such as the Tysa River and the Carpathian Mountains. The border with Poland also sees numerous attempts with forged documents. Kyiv Independent

Former TV journalist arrested after calling for armed resistance to mobilization. A former Ukrainian TV journalist, Zhan Novoseltsev, was arrested by the Security Service of Ukraine for allegedly calling for armed resistance to mobilization. Novoseltsev, along with seven others, conducted activities supporting the aggressor country and disseminated anti-mobilization content to over 600,000 people via social media. Ukraine has intensified mobilization efforts, with millions of military-aged men updating their registration data. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine charges Kremlin ally Medvedchuk over privatization of oil pipeline. Ukrainian authorities charged pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk in absentia with illegally seizing the Samara-Western oil pipeline, the Security Service of Ukraine announced on Wednesday. Medvedchuk, once Putin's key ally in Ukraine, was arrested in 2021 for high treason and later exchanged with Russia. The scheme, initiated in 2015, involved transferring the pipeline from state ownership to a Swiss company controlled by the suspects. Medvedchuk implicated former President Petro Poroshenko, whose party denied the accusations. Ukraine's Supreme Court reclaimed the pipeline in January 2024. Kyiv Independent

Japan protests against Russia’s entry ban on 13 mostly business leaders over Ukraine sanctions. Japan has protested Russia's ban on 13 Japanese citizens, including business leaders from Toyota and Rakuten, in retaliation for Tokyo's sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi deemed the ban unacceptable as it limits legitimate activities of Japanese companies in Russia. Japan is cooperating with G7 nations on sanctions due to concerns over the war’s impact in Asia.  Associated Press

Crisis-hit Ukrainian city prepares for life after the war. In the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych views wartime crises, such as water shortages and economic collapse, as short-term challenges to long-term reforms. Just 40 miles from the front line, Mykolaiv’s 400,000 residents face severe hardships, including a two-year clean water crisis. Beyond the water crisis, local schools have been in online-only mode for four years. The city budget lost around half of its revenue because of the war, and the port has been closed since February 2022. Sienkevych, elected in 2015, is committed to transparency and accountability, overhauling public firm management, and introducing corporate-style governance. Amid ongoing Russian attacks, he aims to strengthen the city’s reputation and prepare for European Union membership, despite residents’ frustrations with the hardships and distrust in authorities. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, July 23, 2024. The Russian State Duma proposed an amendment to punish soldiers for using personal devices at the frontline, sparking backlash from milbloggers and underscoring ongoing command and control issues. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against a ferry crossing in Krasnodar Krai, causing a temporary fire. Russian regional officials are increasing financial incentives to encourage more men to fight in Ukraine. Russian occupation officials continue to use security organs for law enforcement and filtration in occupied Ukraine to reduce pro-Ukrainian sentiment.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces made minor advances near Siversk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Secret Service director resigns under withering fire.  U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned on Tuesday following the attempted assassination of former President  Donald Trump earlier this month at a rally in Pennsylvania. Cheatle called the event the "most significant operational failure of the Secret Service in decades." Her unwillingness or inability to answer detailed questions at a House Oversight Committee hearing infuriated members of both parties, who joined in a rare bipartisan call for her to step down. In a separate proceeding, the Col. Christopher Paris, commissioner of the Pennsylvania State Police, told the House Homeland Security Committee that two local tactical officers had been posted at a window overlooking the roof where the gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, would take aim at Trump, but he said they left their overwatch before Crooks got to the roof to help other law enforcement officers on the scene look for a man – who turned out to be Crooks – who had been spotted hanging around the perimeter with a range-finder.  It was unclear why Trump was allowed to take the stage with a suspicious person at large.  House Speaker Mike Johnson and minority leader Hakeem Jeffries announced the formation of a bipartisan task force to lead the congressional investigations into the attempted assassination. Meanwhile, Secret Service officials asked Trump’s campaign to stop scheduling large outdoor rallies and other outdoor events with big crowds.  Axios AP Reuters Washington Post NBC CNN  USA Today  NY Times  Washington Post   

Russian propagandists quickly establish brutal campaign against Kamala Harris. Almost immediately following U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and subsequent endorsement of Kamala Harris, Russian propagandists launched a wave of racist, sexist, and conspiratorial attacks against the Vice President. While the Kremlin itself has shown restraint, Russian state media and social media commentators intensified their offensive, with popular figures making derogatory comments about Harris on TV. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov maintained a composed stance on Sunday evening, focusing on Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. Despite claiming neutrality and non-intervention, Russian media portrays the U.S. as chaotic and inferior, depicting Biden as a failure, Harris as malevolent, and American democracy as flawed. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused American media of colluding to hide Biden's mental state. The sharpest attacks targeted Harris, whom the Kremlin's white male propagandists labeled negatively. State news agency TASS, however, highlighted comments from Dmitry Medvedev's aide on Sunday, who simply wished Biden health while asserting the achievement of Russia's military goals. Politico EU

Analyst says Harris likely to initially retain Biden’s foreign policy team. If Kamala Harris is elected in November, she is likely to hold on to President Joe Biden’s foreign policy team initially, due to her lack of experience with foreign policy, according to Li Cheng, a specialist on U.S.-China relations. Li anticipates Harris will maintain Biden’s China policy at first, with significant personnel changes occurring later, providing a clearer understanding of her approach. Harris is expected to continue supporting U.S. regional allies in the Indo-Pacific and avoid escalating tensions with Beijing. She has visited the Philippines and engaged with regional partners, expressed support for Taiwan, and met its leader in 2022, but is likely to take a cautious approach toward the sovereign island’s independence. Harris may take a tough stance on human rights issues in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, but her campaign rhetoric on China should not be taken too seriously by Beijing. No major shifts in China policy are expected during Biden’s remaining time in office, although he may seek to consolidate existing policies. Li predicts that Harris, known for her aggressive and outspoken nature, will make changes to Biden’s foreign policy team after a few months, replacing Biden loyalists who did not show her much respect. South China Morning Post 

Lockheed Martin raises 2024 sales target on fighter jet, missile demand. Lockheed Martin on Tuesday raised its annual sales target for 2024 to $70.5 billion-$71.5 billion, up from the previous $68.5 billion-$70 billion forecast, following the resumption of F-35 aircraft deliveries after a delay due to software upgrade issues. The company's shares rose 3.2% in morning trade. The Pentagon resumed accepting F-35 jets, though with incomplete software upgrades, and will withhold some payment until the enhancements are finished. The F-35 program, which contributes around 30% of Lockheed's revenue, is undergoing upgrades under the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) program, enhancing displays and processing power. CEO Jim Taiclet stated they expect to deliver 75-110 F-35s in 2024. TR-3 is part of a broader Block 4 upgrade aimed at maintaining the F-35 as the most advanced fighter aircraft. Lockheed's second-quarter net income of $6.85 per share exceeded estimates, with quarterly sales rising 8.5% to $18.12 billion. The earnings beat was partly driven by Congress's approval of $95 billion in additional funding for aid to Ukraine and Israel. Reuters

Venezuela’s Maduro attempting to encourage American investments. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, aiming to revive the country's oil industry, has invited American investors to collaborate, promising stability and legal security. Despite overseeing an economic collapse, Maduro is positioning himself as pro-business ahead of the presidential election. Some U.S. businessmen, favoring the known entity, have engaged in talks with Maduro and lobbied for lifting economic sanctions. Maduro's past economic performance has been poor, with a significant contraction and defaults, yet he pledges a "grand national dialogue" and has made gestures of reconciliation towards U.S. political figures. Maduro's strategy includes offering lucrative deals to attract American businesses and circumventing intermediaries. However, some executives doubt stability under Maduro, preferring a government that re-establishes the rule of law. The international community's recognition of the election is crucial for Venezuela's future investment climate. The Biden administration has attempted to encourage fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief, while Maduro has responded by suppressing opposition. Skepticism remains about his ability to attract serious foreign investment given Venezuela's history of mistreatment of investors. Wall Street Journal

Pentagon forming regional partnerships to maintain equipment far from home. The Pentagon is engaging with allies and partners to sustain military equipment in operational theaters, beginning with the Indo-Pacific region, to reduce reliance on returning equipment to the U.S. for repairs. This forward sustainment is considered crucial for potential conflicts with China. The new regional sustainment framework aims to meet demand closer to the point of need and enhance U.S. and regional partners' capabilities. Historically, Washington has independently sustained its forces, but now the plan is to utilize existing regional maintenance and repair facilities through joint ventures, rather than building new capabilities. The framework provides theater commanders multiple sustainment options, enhancing deterrence by creating uncertainty in adversaries' planning. Initial efforts focus on the Indo-Pacific, with plans to expand to Europe and the Middle East in 2025, South America in 2026, and Africa later. The Pentagon is also using advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing to produce parts on-site, ensuring parts meet operational standards and securing intellectual property.  Defense News

NATO’s new model for arms purchases interests weapons-builder RTX. NATO has adopted an aggregated business model for procuring air defense weapons, which Raytheon, part of RTX, views as promising for other armament programs. The performance of Raytheon's Patriot systems in Ukraine has spurred interest across Europe, leading to air defense modernization efforts in many nations. NATO's Support and Procurement Agency ordered up to 1,000 Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missiles for Romania, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands in January from MBDA and Raytheon's joint venture, Comlog. Tom Laliberty, president of land and air defense systems at Raytheon, highlighted this joint procurement as a model NATO aims to replicate with other weapons, such as the Stinger systems used in Ukraine. NATO recently signed a $700 million contract for additional Stinger portable surface-to-air weapons for several member states. Laliberty praised the procurement model as successful and noted that 19 countries, including Ukraine, currently operate Patriot systems. These countries provide feedback that helps update the system's software and threat databases, enhancing its readiness against various threats. Defense News

U.S. Senator Bob Menendez steps down following corruption conviction, calls for resignation.  Despite previous assertions that he would not step aside, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez has resigned following his conviction on corruption charges, including bribery and acting as an agent for Egypt. Menendez, who intends to appeal the verdict, will officially leave office on August 20, 2024. Democratic New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will appoint a temporary replacement. Menendez, who has been in the Senate since 2006 and previously chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, was found guilty on 16 counts, including obstruction of justice, wire fraud, and extortion. Reuters BBC Washington Post Reuters

EUROPE

London finds British preacher Anjem Choudary guilty of directing terrorist organization.  Radical British preacher Anjem Choudary, 57, was found guilty by a London jury of directing the banned terrorist group al-Muhajiroun (ALM). Convicted of both membership in ALM and of promoting it, Choudary was identified as having a significant radicalizing influence, contributing to global terrorism and public safety threats. He stepped in as leader of ALM after its founder was imprisoned in Lebanon. Previously convicted of supporting ISIS, Choudary denied promoting ALM, claiming it no longer exists. However, prosecutors argued that ALM has operated under various names, including the U.S.-based Islamic Thinkers Society. Choudary was convicted alongside a follower, Khaled Hussein, 29, from Edmonton, Canada. Both were arrested a year ago, and sentencing is set for July 30. This case is notable for bringing a high-ranking leader to justice, a rare occurrence in terrorism cases. Associated Press BBC The Guardian NBC News

France investigated migrant communities to combat ISIS-K danger to Olympic games.  French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said that security services are investigating migrant communities from former Soviet republics to protect the upcoming Olympics from the ISIS-K militant group, a resurgent wing of Islamic State. In an interview, Darmanin said that while ISIS-K is considered highly dangerous, no specific threat to the Games has been identified. The authorities have scrutinized individuals from ten nationalities of former Soviet states. These measures follow a Reuters report from last week about French efforts to address intelligence gaps and build relations with Tajik and Central Asian communities in France, especially after two significant attacks by Tajik ISIS-K members in Iran and Moscow this year. In preparation for the Olympics' opening ceremony along the Seine River, extensive security measures include checking building cellars, inspecting the catacombs, and welding shut thousands of manhole covers. Reuters 

As U.S. election approaches, Poland tells Europe to prepare for shift in relations. In an interview with Politico, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski warned European partners that the continent must start preparing for a significant “change” in E.U.-U.S. ties, and also begin spending more money on defense, regardless of who secures the American presidency in November. Sikorski expressed confidence that the U.S. will remain a strategic partner, but cautioned that Europe must take more responsibility for its defense as Washington shifts its focus towards Asia. He noted that European nations need to explain to the U.S. that they cannot fully engage in Asia due to the ongoing threat from Russia. This concern is heightened by fears that a potential return of former President Donald Trump could lead to reduced U.S. investment in NATO. Sikorski's office prepared a five-page document for EU foreign ministers, urging rapid adaptation to the expected shift in U.S. foreign policy and collective efforts to counter negative perceptions of the transatlantic relationship. The paper also warned of Russian misinformation aiming to undermine U.S. support for Ukraine and suggested that policymakers tailor their arguments to resonate with younger Americans unfamiliar with the Soviet Union. Politico EU

Hungary urges E.U. action against Ukraine for partial oil ban as Russian dispute worsens.  Hungary on Monday called on the E.U. to act against Ukraine for imposing a partial ban on Russian oil exports, which Hungary argues threatens its energy security. Ukraine's recent sanctions block the transit of Russian pipeline crude to Central Europe, impacting Budapest, which relies on Russia for 70% of its oil imports, half of which come from Lukoil. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó labeled Kyiv’s decision as “unacceptable,” and a violation of the E.U.'s 2014 association agreement with Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia, also impacted by the ban, are negotiating with the European Commission, which will potentially lead to legal action. Kyiv justifies its move as an effort to cut off a significant revenue source for Moscow amidst the ongoing war, noting Russia made $180 billion from oil exports in 2023. The dispute exacerbates already strained relations between Ukraine and Hungary, particularly after Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Slovakia, heavily dependent on Russian oil, also reacted strongly. Hungary has increased its reliance on Russian oil since 2021. Politico EU 

Macron will establish new government after Olympic games wind down. French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday announced plans to appoint a new prime minister in mid-August, after the Olympic games finish. Until then, his outgoing government will focus on the Olympics in a caretaker role in order to avoid “disorder.” He stated, “I have chosen the stability” to protect the long-anticipated Games. Macron did not comment on a leftist front proposal for a new prime minister but did acknowledge that his centrist party had failed to win the vote. He also said he would not resign before his term ends. Reuters Associated Press

Germany bans Muslim organization, closes four mosques, for pursuit of radical Islam. The German interior ministry announced it has banned the Islamic Centre Hamburg (IZH) and its subsidiary organizations, citing their pursuit of radical Islamist ambitions. On Wednesday, authorities searched 53 of the organization's premises across eight German states. Along with the Hamburg-based IZH, which includes one of Germany's oldest mosques, subgroups in Frankfurt, Munich, and Berlin were also banned, leading to the closure of four Shiite mosques. The ban follows the discovery of evidence from a previous search of 55 properties in November. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser stated that the IZH promotes an Islamist-extremist, totalitarian ideology opposed to human dignity, women's rights, an independent judiciary, and democratic government. She clarified that the ban does not target the peaceful practice of the Shiite religion. The ministry also indicated that the IZH acts as a direct representative of Iran's Supreme Leader, aiming to establish theocratic rule in Germany, and backs both anti-Semitism and the militant group Hezbollah, which is also prohibited. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.N. envoy to Yemen cautions possibility of ‘devastating’ regional escalation, but notes hopeful developments. Hans Grundberg, the U.N. envoy to Yemen, on Tuesday warned of a potential region-wide escalation due to recent events in the Red Sea, Israel, and within Yemen, the Arab world's most indigent nation. Despite this, he noted a positive development: Yemen's warring parties agreed to de-escalate tensions in the banking and transport sectors. Last week saw “dangerous' ' escalation, however, including a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and Israeli retaliation on Yemen's Hodeida port. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping continue, along with U.S. and U.K. airstrikes on Houthi targets. Economic issues threaten a return to full-scale war, and Grundberg emphasized the need for unified banking and currency policies free from political interference. The economic divide between the Houthis and the southern government has led to separate central banks and currencies, but Grundberg announced an agreement to de-escalate the banking standoff and ensure the operation of Yemenia Airways. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

China lays out tough new rules for government sector to protect sensitive info, state secrets.  China on Monday published a new set of tighter government measures created to enhance the protection of clandestine information, such as stricter screening of government officials who handle sensitive state secrets. The updated rules, published on Monday, expand the scope of the Law on Guarding State Secrets, which was significantly revised for the first time in a decade. The regulations, effective in September, require government departments to identify and train officials responsible for state secrets and set up dedicated offices for their protection. Key provisions include strict handling procedures for top-level secrets, mandatory qualifications for companies working with state secrets, and ensuring only Chinese nationals work in related positions. The regulations also encourage innovation in security technologies. These measures are in response to increased digital and internet-based risks of leaks and theft. The National Administration of State Secrets Protection has been granted broader investigative powers across various sectors. South China Morning Post

Moscow claims Russian Arctic cooperation with China is not targeted against anyone, after U.S. criticism. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday asserted that Russia's cooperation with China in the Arctic is not intended to target any other country, and dismissed U.S. criticism of this collaboration as misplaced. This response came after the Pentagon expressed concerns on Monday about potential regional instability due to Moscow and Beijing’s activities in the Arctic. The Pentagon's report highlighted Russia's reopening of Soviet-era military sites and China's interest in shipping routes and Arctic resources such as oil, gas and mineral deposits. Peskov stressed that the two nations' cooperation is aimed at fostering “stability and predictability” in the Arctic, not creating tension or conflict. He stressed that this collaboration is focused on protecting the interests of Russia and China and is “never” directed against any third countries. The cooperation includes developing Arctic shipping routes, with Russia taking steps to increase oil and gas deliveries to China amidst Western sanctions. Reuters CBS Al Jazeera

Chinese company Baosteel to acquire Nippon Steel’s 50% stake in $242 million auto steel venture. China’s Baosteel will buy out Nippon Steel’s 50% stake in their automotive steel joint venture, Baosteel Nippon Steel Automotive Steel Sheets, for around $242 million. The venture, which combined Japanese technology with the growing Chinese market, was set to expire on July 30. However, demand for steel has declined in China due to the transition to electric vehicles and a slowdown in property construction. Nippon Steel, facing intense competition in the Chinese market, plans to shift its focus to other ventures, including a contested $14.1 billion bid for U.S. Steel. The joint venture originally included Arcelor with a 12% stake, which Nippon Steel later acquired, resulting in equal ownership with Baosteel. Following the announcement, Baosteel’s share price fell by 2.5%, while Nippon Steel’s shares rose by 0.3%. Associated Press 

ASEAN confronts Myanmar crisis, South China Sea strain as ministers gather in Laos.  The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) convened in Laos on Wednesday to address the crisis in Myanmar and tensions in the South China Sea ahead of summits with major global powers. ASEAN foreign ministers aim to resolve Myanmar's civil war, which has displaced 2.6 million people, but progress has been slow due to the junta's resistance to dialogue. Laos, as the current chair, continues discreet diplomatic efforts. ASEAN also seeks to finalize a code of conduct with Beijing on the South China Sea amid confrontations between China and the Philippines. Manila proposed an ASEAN Coast Guard Forum, which may provoke China. Indonesia hopes for a code by 2026, though some analysts doubt its enforceability. The U.S. will advocate for adherence to international law in the region during upcoming summits. The East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum on Saturday will include discussions on global issues such as the Gaza war, Ukraine conflict, food security, trade protectionism,  climate change, and North Korea's nuclear developments. Attendees will include officials from the U.S., EU, Japan, China, Russia, and more. Reuters

AFRICA

U.S. requests Sudan's fighting parties meet for talks in Switzerland, RSF expected to participate. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday said that the U.S. has invited the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to participate in U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks beginning on August 14 in Switzerland. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo confirmed their engagement to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire and ensure humanitarian access. Dagalo emphasized their commitment to saving lives, stopping the fighting, and facilitating a peaceful political solution that leads to civilian rule and democratic transition. The talks will involve the African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.N. as observers, with Saudi Arabia as a co-host. Reuters 

Niger says gunmen kill 15 soldiers in fighting. Niger's defense ministry on Tuesday announced the deaths of fifteen soldiers in a battle with armed militants between the settlements of Bankilare and Tera in the region of Tillaberi. 16 soldiers were wounded in the fighting on Monday, while twenty-one militants were reportedly killed. Three soldiers are missing. Niger, along with Mali and Burkina Faso, is combating an intensifying jihadist threat that began in 2012. The conflicts and insurgencies have resulted in thousands of deaths, over 3 million displaced people, and a severe humanitarian crisis. The inability to protect civilians has led to military coups in all three countries since 2020. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

China halts cooperation with U.S. on supercomputers.  Chinese scientists have stopped participating alongside American counterparts in a prominent international supercomputing forum. Western scientists say the move is likely to slow the development of AI and other technologies. Supercomputers are crucial to the U.S.-China technological competition and the weapons race. They offer an advantage in developing nuclear weapons and other military technology.  WSJ 

China discovers the first trace of water on the moon. A team of Chinese scientists have discovered water molecules in lunar soil for the first time, a significant finding for understanding the moon's evolution and resource potential. This discovery, based on samples from China's Chang'e-5 mission in 2020, contrasts with earlier Apollo mission samples that showed no water, which led to the belief that lunar soil was completely dry. The research, published in Nature Astronomy, was conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other institutions. They identified a hydrated mineral containing water molecules, ruling out contamination from Earth. Further discoveries are anticipated with the return of China's Chang'e-6 mission, which brought back up to 2 kg of material from the moon's far side in June. South China Morning Post 

AM General’s delivery of first Joint Light Tactical Vehicles delayed.  AM General’s initial delivery of Joint Light Tactical Vehicles, or JLTVs, to the U.S. Army has been delayed by six months.  The company blamed problems switching to a new vendor.  Defense News 

Boeing won’t bid on fixed-price contracts for drone wingmen.  A Boeing executive said Monday the company will not bid on fixed-price contracts to make drone wingmen for the Air Force. He called  fixed-price development program “a recipe for failure.” The Air Force wants the aerospace industry to develop and produce about 1,000 autonomous drones known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft, to fly alongside F-35s and the future Next Generation Air Dominance fighter. They will conduct airstrikes, jam enemy signals, gather intelligence, conduct surveillance and reconnaissance, and act as decoys in combat.  Defense News

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & contributed to this report.

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