Report for Wednesday, July 17, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

U.S. knew of a potential Iranian assassination plot against Trump, weeks before rally shooting

Israeli military says it has eliminated half of Hamas military leaders

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out

U.S. military says Islamic State attacks in Iraq and Syria are on course to double compared to last year

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Year of the (Digital) DragonThe Cipher Brief 

After the Trump Attack, Fighting an Erosion of TrustThe Cipher Brief

Russian Propaganda Blames Biden and Ukrainians For Trump Shooting The Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israeli strikes across Gaza kill at least 57, Palestinian health officials say.  Israeli forces engaged Hamas fighters in several parts of Gaza Tuesday.  As battles raged, Palestinian health officials said at least 57 people were killed in Israeli bombardments of southern and central Gaza. In the southern border city of Rafah, five Palestinians were killed in an airstrike on a house, and in nearby Khan Younis, a man, his wife, and two children were killed, Gaza health officials said. An Israeli airstrike targeting a senior militant of the Islamic Jihad hit near a tented area housing displaced families in the humanitarian-designated area of Al-Mawasi.  It killed at least 17 Palestinians and wounded 26 others in Khan Younis, officials said. the Gaza health ministry said. Four Palestinians were killed by an airstrike on Sheikh Zayed in northern Gaza, they said. In the historic Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, at least four Palestinians were killed in separate shelling and aerial strikes, medics said. Hours later, an Israeli air strike on a U.N.-run school that housed displaced families in the Nuseirat camp killed 23 people and wounded many others, health officials said. Among those killed was local journalist Mohammad Meshmesh, taking the number of journalists killed in the conflict to 160, the Hamas-run Gaza government media office said. The Israeli military said it had attacked a group of "terrorists" operating from inside the school, after taking steps to mitigate the risk to civilians. Efforts to end the conflict stalled on Saturday after three days of negotiations fizzled Egyptian security sources said.   Reuters  New York Times 

Israeli student recruited by Iranian spies to deliver severed animal head, intimidate other Israelis.  Elimelech Stern, 21, a Hasidic yeshiva student, was indicted Tuesday for carrying out “missions” ordered by Iranian spies he met on social media, in exchange for cryptocurrency rewards, Shin Bet said Tuesday.  Stern was tasked with posting public notices in Tel Aviv, hiding money in various locations in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and delivering packages containing threatening messages, including a severed head of an animal, to Israeli citizens. The Israeli security services did not say how they traced the case to Iranian intelligence other than saying that widely distributed text messages of a similar nature contained a reference to the website of the International Security Agency of Iran. The indictment against Stern said that his Iranian handler asked him via the Telegram app to place the head of a lamb in a gift box next to a bouquet of flowers and leave it at the home of Israel's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency.  When he couldn’t find a lamb’s head, Stern was told to purchase a large stuffed animal, buy a knife and a bouquet of flowers and place them in a gift box. Senior security officials told Ynet that the ultra-Orthodox population has become a target for Iran because the Iranians estimate that they are less aware of online dangers,   CNN Ynet 

Israeli military says it has eliminated half of Hamas military leaders. Half of the leadership of Hamas' military wing has been eliminated, the Israeli military said Tuesday.  The military said it eliminated senior commanders including brigade commanders, battalion commanders and company commanders, destroyed thousands of militant targets and killed or captured about 14,000 fighters since the start of the Gaza campaign.  Reuters 

Israel plans to draft ultra-Orthodox men, sparking protests.  The Israeli army announced plans Tuesday to send draft notices to about 6,000 ultra-Orthodox men who are working or have dropped out of yeshiva.  After the announcement, dozens of ultra-Orthodox men from the extremist Jerusalem Faction blocked Route 4 near Bnei Brak for three hours.  Police used riot-control equipment to remove them. Some protesters called the cops "Nazis," and one demonstrator spit in a female officer's face. Nine were arrested.  Haaretz Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out. Russia's offensive against Ukraine is weakening due to dwindling stocks of Soviet-era weaponry. The northern Kharkiv offensive is faltering, with minimal gains in Donbas achieved at high costs. Russia can still recruit 25,000 soldiers monthly and produce missiles, but replacing lost tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery is challenging. Despite having large Soviet-era stockpiles, these are finite. Estimates indicate Russia has lost around 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other vehicles, relying on refurbishing old models, including outdated T-72s, T-62s, and T-55s. Component shortages, sanctions, and outdated production capacity hamper new production. Artillery barrel wear is significant, with limited production capacity. At current attrition rates, Russia may face a critical shortage of tanks and vehicles by next year, potentially shifting to a more defensive posture and increasing interest in a temporary ceasefire. The Economist

Ukraine faces twin challenges of fighting Russia and shifting political sands in the US. Ukraine faces mounting battlefield challenges after almost 30 months of war as U.S. support, crucial to its defense, is uncertain. A six-month delay in U.S. military aid has allowed Russian forces to advance, particularly in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Analysts predict the next few months will be the hardest for Ukraine. Former President Donald Trump, with running mate Sen. JD Vance, may shift U.S. focus away from Ukraine if elected. Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Victor Orban complicates European Union dynamics with rogue meetings. Russia's long-range missile attacks have heavily damaged Ukraine’s power grid. Ammunition deliveries are slow, delaying any counteroffensive. Ukraine's fortifications and conscription efforts are improving but face limitations. NATO is sending more military aid, including F-16s, yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demands fewer restrictions on U.S. weapons use. Associated Press 

German-linked logistics firm helped Russian manufacturers sanctioned over war in Ukraine. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Hellmann Worldwide Logistics withdrew from Russia. Former Hellmann employees established a Russian-registered firm called Heinrich Tapp Rus (HT Rus) to continue shipping goods via third countries, circumventing sanctions. HT Rus, owned by a German firm, services clients like Aurus, Kamaz, and Tyumen Battery Factory, which are under sanctions for supporting Russia's war efforts. Despite Hellmann's disassociation, HT Rus uses "parallel imports" to ship goods from countries like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. This activity, legal only if not involving sanctioned goods or entities, shows the complexities and challenges in enforcing international sanctions HT Rus is one of many intermediaries offering customers help with skirting Western sanctions and using shipments via third countries to provide industrial goods to Russia. Reuters 

Russia and Ukraine Set to Swap 180 Prisoners in UAE-Backed Deal. Russia and Ukraine are set to exchange 180 prisoners, facilitated by the United Arab Emirates, marking the sixth such swap overseen by the Gulf state this year. Each side planned to release 90 prisoners on Wednesday, bringing the total exchanged this year under UAE mediation to nearly 1,400. Russia currently holds 6,465 Ukrainian prisoners, while Ukraine holds 1,348 Russians. Bloomberg Reuters 

Ukraine lists 42,000 citizens as missing persons. As of Wednesday, Ukraine's unified register lists 42,000 citizens missing due to war, occupation, or disasters. Since its launch in May 2023, the register has collected data on 51,000 missing persons. The increase highlights the humanitarian impact of Russia's invasion, including deportations, kidnappings, and numerous deaths. The Interior Ministry has located 7,000 people, including 3,000 former POWs and 4,000 deceased soldiers. Over 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Russia, Belarus, or occupied territories. Kyiv Independent

Japan to reportedly cover $3.3 billion of G7 loan to Ukraine. Japan will cover $3.3 billion of a $50 billion G7 loan to Ukraine, funded by proceeds from frozen Russian assets, Kyodo News reported. The loan, pledged during a June summit in Italy, aims to support Ukraine amid Russia's invasion. The U.S. and EU each committed $20 billion, while Japan, Canada, and the U.K. will cover the remaining $10 billion. Italy, Germany, and France will focus on EU efforts. Additionally, the EU will soon release €1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction and defense. Kyiv Independent 

Russia restricts civilian access to villages in border region shelled by Ukraine. Russia has restricted civilian access to 14 villages in the Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine, due to intensified Ukrainian shelling. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that only adult men accompanying military or government officials, traveling in armored vehicles with protective gear, would be allowed entry. The region has experienced frequent attacks, resulting in significant civilian casualties and injuries. Residents may relocate to temporary shelters, with the government providing financial assistance and pausing utility payments. Reuters 

Ukraine and Czech producer to build ammunition factory in Ukraine. Ukraine and Czech ammunition maker Sellier & Bellot will build an ammunition factory in Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced Tuesday after meetings in Prague. The Czech Republic has been a key supporter of Ukraine. The factory will produce small-caliber ammunition, with machinery supplied by Colt CZ Group. Additionally, Ceska Zbrojovka signed a technology transfer deal for CZ BREN 2 rifles to be manufactured in Ukraine. Ukraine has already received 50,000 ammunition shells from a Czech initiative, with half a million expected this year sourced from NATO states and allies. Reuters

Russian attacks kill 1, injure 14 in Donetsk, Kherson oblasts over past day. Russian attacks across Ukraine killed one person and injured at least 14 over the past day, regional authorities reported on Wednesday. In Donetsk Oblast, one person died and seven were injured. Kherson Oblast saw seven injuries. Attacks also hit Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, but no casualties were reported. Various civilian properties, including a kindergarten and a shop, were damaged. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine hits Russian S-300 system in Donetsk Oblast, Syrskyi says. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Donetsk Oblast on Tuesday, hitting its radar station and several launchers, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said. Ukraine's Defense Forces have previously destroyed over 20 Russian launchers and 15 radar stations. Recent successful Ukrainian attacks have also heavily degraded the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, hitting around 15 air defense systems and multiple radar stations and control centers. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainian attacks wound six, causing factory fire in Russian border regions, governors say. Ukrainian attacks caused a fire at an electrical device factory in Russia's Kursk region, injuring six people, local governors said Tuesday. A drone attack on the Korenevo factory was extinguished by morning with no casualties. Another drone dropped an explosive on a house, injuring one. Russia's Defense Ministry reported that 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight. Four were injured by Ukrainian shelling in Belgorod, and one in a drone attack in Voronezh. Authorities may evacuate 14 Belgorod villages due to frequent attacks. Reuters

Repair of Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant to take at least 3 years due to Russian attacks. Repairing Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia, will take at least three years due to extensive damage from Russian attacks, according to Ihor Syrota, CEO of Ukrhydroenergo. The plant has been heavily targeted, with recent attacks reducing its capacity by a third. Over 120 missile strikes have hit Ukraine's hydroelectric plants since the invasion began, causing a loss of almost 45% of Ukrhydroenergo’s electricity generation capacity. Efforts to restore the Dnipro plant also include measures to reduce vulnerability to future attacks, and Ukrhydroenergo is pursuing legal action for compensation. Russia has destroyed more than 9 GW of electricity generation since the beginning of the all-out war, while another 18 GW of capacity was produced by facilities that are currently under Russian occupation. Kyiv Independent 

Lithuania to provide Ukraine with energy equipment worth $55 million. Lithuanian companies will provide Ukraine with energy equipment worth $55 million to help restore infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, Ukraine's Energy Ministry announced on Tuesday. The aid includes over 300 pieces of equipment, such as those from Vilnius Power Plant-3. Since March 2022, Ukraine has received 80 deliveries of energy equipment from Lithuania. This support is crucial as Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine's energy grid. Ukraine's largest privately-owned energy provider, DTEK, has warned that Ukrainians may only have electricity for 6-7 hours per day in the upcoming winter. Kyiv Independent 

Ukrainians with windows shattered by war get cheaper, safer refits. Russia has destroyed about 10 million windows and damaged 222,000 private homes in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion in 2022. Insulate Ukraine, a non-profit, has replaced over 4,000 windows with a triple-layer PVC and polyethylene design, safer than glass. This initiative aims to make damaged homes livable despite long waits for imported glass. "They are a bridge for a chronic situation," said its founder, 27-year-old Harry Blakiston Houston from Northern Ireland. "We've seen buildings with windows shattered from the beginning of the war, they still haven't been touched. There are still millions of windows left to do." Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, July 16, 2024. Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia strain its air defense, forcing prioritization of high-value targets. Ukrainian forces target Russian air defenses in occupied Ukraine and border areas to prepare for F-16 fighter jet deployment. The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former Major General Ivan Popov to house arrest until Oct. 11. Armenian police detained a Russian citizen, likely at Russia's request, amid worsening Armenian-Russian relations. An investigation found approximately 650,000 people left Russia after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and have not returned.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdiivka. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

U.S. knew of a potential Iranian assassination plot against Trump, weeks before rally shooting, says National Security Council. U.S. officials received intelligence from a source about an Iranian plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump just weeks before a gunman shot at him during a rally in Pennsylvania. The Secret Service bolstered protection around Trump in light of the increased threat risk, reportedly surging “resources and assets” before the rally on Saturday. The shooting, carried out by 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, is not believed to be connected to the Iranian plot. The GOP nominee was grazed in the ear, and three others were hit, including a firefighter who was killed. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson emphasized the seriousness of Iranian threats, which stem from Tehran's desire for revenge over the 2020 killing of General Qassem Soleimani. Despite these threats, no links have been found between the shooter and any co-conspirators. The Secret Service had advised against outdoor rallies due to security challenges, and at one point, Trump’s campaign ceased holding impromptu, off-the-record events in which guests were not screened by agents beforehand. Additional agents have been assigned to Trump, President Biden, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy following the shooting. The Trump campaign refused to comment on the assassination attempt and did not divulge if it had been aware of the threat. The FBI has not commented on the incident, though Iran issued a statement rejecting all accusations of involvement as “malicious,” and calling for “criminal” Trump's prosecution for Soleimani's killing. In the past, Iran has repeatedly pledged to retaliate for this high-profile assassination, with Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton both having been the target for previous Iranian plots. New York Post CNN New York Times

Trump shooter asked for a day off on Saturday, and said he’d return on Sunday. Thomas Matthew Crooks, who attempted to assassinate former President Donald Trump on Saturday, had taken the day off work, telling his colleagues he had "something to do" and would return the next day. Investigators are still determining his motive but have learned more about his actions leading up to the attack at a rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Crooks was spotted at the rally's security screening area around 3 p.m., carrying a rangefinder, which drew security's attention but did not hinder him from passing through. He then left the secure area, presumably to retrieve his rifle from his car. Witnesses saw Crooks crawling on the roof of the American Glass Research building, where a counter-sniper team observed him looking at them through his rangefinder. One official said the snipers were “looking at him while he was looking at them.” Crooks accessed the rooftop by climbing the building's air conditioning system. After the shooting, law enforcement found a bulletproof vest, three loaded magazines, and two remote-controlled explosive devices in Crooks' car. Additional items, including another bulletproof vest, a remote-controlled explosive device, and a 3D printer, were discovered at his residence. In recent months, Crooks had received several packages, some marked as containing hazardous materials. CNN

House panel summons three senior security officials for a hearing in Washington next week. The Homeland Security Committee has summoned the directors of three federal security agencies to Capitol Hill next week to address law enforcement failures related to the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. Rep. Mark E. Green, the Republican chairman of the congressional committee, invited Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to testify on Tuesday. Cheatle is also expected to testify before the House Oversight Committee on Monday. Green emphasized the need to understand what went wrong on Saturday, and how to prevent similar incidents. He has requested the Secret Service provide documents, including the security plan for the rally and all related communications, by Friday. Green has already spoken with Cheatle and FBI Executive Assistant Director Robert Wells. At least three congressional committees have started inquiries into how the gunman managed to come within 500 feet of Trump. Some lawmakers are calling for an independent commission to oversee investigations. The Senate Homeland Security Committee has also announced a bipartisan inquiry. New York Times

Local authorities face questions, confrontations after Trump rally shooting. Though the Secret Service is facing scrutiny over how gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks managed to carry out a failed assassination attempt against GOP nominee Donald Trump, state and local law enforcement are also under investigation, and have been abruptly thrust into the limelight. Key questions include how the Secret Service coordinated with them, and what exactly went wrong. The Secret Service reported that local law enforcement was responsible for securing the building where Crooks was positioned, but later clarified that it was not placing blame on local partners. Its agents secured the inner circle, while local officers handled crowd control and outer structures. The Butler County Sheriff's Office, Pennsylvania State Police, Butler Township Police Department, and a SWAT team from Beaver County coordinated with the Secret Service for the rally's security. A Pennsylvania State Police officer underscored the fact that the Service led operations. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle stated that she takes full responsibility and will ensure a review and necessary resources. Charles Marino, a former supervisory agent, stressed that the Secret Service “has to take the hit on this.” He said the Service relies on local law enforcement support and argued that blaming them was a “mistake” that could negatively impact future cooperation. Wall Street Journal

FBI, DHS caution possibility of retaliation attacks following Trump shooting. U.S. authorities are warning of potential retaliatory attacks following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, according to a joint intelligence bulletin from the FBI and Department of Homeland Security. The bulletin, obtained by Politico, expresses concern that extremists may attempt further acts of violence. Although no specific targets are mentioned, the bulletin highlights past attacks against perceived political or ideological opponents and notes that some online communities have threatened or encouraged violence in response to the attempt on Trump's life. This warning comes amid an already "heightened threat" environment due to the nation's deep polarization and underscores the increased dangers for election-related targets. Federal and state law enforcement agencies are intensifying efforts to prevent political violence and lone-wolf attacks against officials and election-related targets. The Justice Department has committed to addressing threats against election workers and facilities. Threats have been observed across the political spectrum. Politico

How Senator Menendez engaged in bribery plot spanning from Cairo to New Jersey. A U.S. jury has convicted Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey of participating in a bribery scheme where he traded political favors and aid to foreign governments for gold, cash, and other gifts, including a Mercedes-Benz. The scheme began in February 2018, shortly after he was cleared of unrelated corruption charges. Menendez used his influence to benefit the Egyptian government and businessman Wael Hana, who was establishing a halal meat certification company in New Jersey. He allegedly helped send weapons and millions of dollars in aid to Egypt in exchange for bribes and intervened in a U.S.-Egyptian dispute. He also pushed the State Department to take a more active role in a hydroelectric dam dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia. In New Jersey, he used his position to influence criminal cases involving associates of businessman Jose Uribe and real estate developer Fred Daibes, intervening in an insurance fraud investigation involving Uribe’s associates and trying to resolve federal bank fraud charges against his friend Daibes. These actions, including Menendez's interventions and efforts to influence officials, led to his conviction along with his co-defendants, Wael Hana and Fred Daibes. He continues to maintain his innocence, despite calls for his resignation. New York Times BBC Politico

Washington-Beijing high-level military talks pick up speed, with crisis meeting coming soon. High-level military dialogues between the U.S. and China are resuming, and there will potentially be a crisis-communications meeting before the end of the year, according to the Pentagon. This renewal follows a nearly two-year suspension by Beijing, sparked by a disputed visit to Taiwan by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. President Joe Biden announced the restoration of talks during a NATO summit news conference, revealing that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to move past the 2023 "spy balloon" incident and re-establish direct communication channels, including a new mechanism for direct military access. Defense Department spokesman Pete Nguyen confirmed that senior American and Chinese military leaders had resumed talks in January and April, focusing on defense relations and air and maritime safety. Further engagements, including telephone conversations between theater commanders and a crisis-communications working group, are planned. Direct communications between military theater commanders have not yet been restored. South China Morning Post

Anti-gang clampdown: rights report says El Salvador has arrested 3,319 minors, sentenced almost 600. A report by Human Rights Watch, published on Tuesday, details the arrest and imprisonment of 3,319 minors during El Salvador's severe, 2 1/2-year crackdown on street gangs. Of these, 579 have been sentenced to prison terms, often under "inhumane conditions" and sometimes alongside adults. The report criticizes the lack of food, healthcare, family contact, and protection from violence for these minors. As of January, 841 minors remained in custody. The report claims many minors were coerced into false confessions through abusive plea deals and mistreatment, often convicted of offenses like "unlawful association" based on dubious evidence. President Nayib Bukele's government, which has been under a state of emergency since 2022, has detained 81,110 suspected gang members. Associated Press

U.S sanctions Mexican accountants, firms for timeshare scams that support powerful drug cartel. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Tuesday against a group of Mexican accountants and firms affiliated with a timeshare fraud network operated by the Jalisco New Generation drug cartel. The sanctions target three accountants and four Mexican real estate and accounting firms. Additionally, the Treasury and FBI issued a notice to banks to remain vigilant in detecting and reporting such fraud. In 2022, the FBI received over 600 complaints related to timeshare scams in Mexico, resulting in around $39.6 million in losses. These new sanctions follow similar actions in April 2023 against members of the same cartel for defrauding elderly Americans. Associated Press

EUROPE

Europeans alarmed by Trump VP pick Vance's opposition to Ukraine aid. Alarm bells are ringing across Europe after Republican Donald Trump picked U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio as his vice-presidential candidate for November's U.S. election. Vance is opposed to aiding Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion, bluntly warning Europe at the Munich Security Conference to expect less U.S. defense assistance. The fear is that a second Trump administration will push Ukraine to end the war on Moscow’s terms, including substantial territorial and other concessions. European leaders fear such a prospect would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to pursue further military adventures. Speaking on a podcast with Trump ally Steve Bannon in 2022, Vance said: "I don't really care what happens in Ukraine one way or the other." But some cautioned against jumping to conclusions about Vance. Reuters Bloomberg Financial Times  

Donald Trump has ‘well-founded plans’ for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Viktor Orban claims. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claims that Donald Trump, if elected, will promptly initiate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, having developed “well-founded plans” for doing so. In a private letter to European Union leaders, Orban urged the EU to re-establish direct communication with Russia and start high-level negotiations with China. Following recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Orban warned that the conflict might intensify soon. Financial Times New York Times 

Charles Michel tells Viktor Orban he has ‘no role’ representing the EU on the world stage. European Council President Charles Michel reprimanded Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for his "peace missions" to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and Washington. In a letter to Orban, Michel stated that Hungary’s rotating council presidency has no mandate to represent the European Union internationally. Michel emphasized the EU's commitment to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and rejected Orban’s claim of an EU "pro-war policy." To the contrary, Michel wrote, "Russia is the aggressor, and Ukraine is the victim exercising its legitimate right to self-defense." Orban's actions have sparked fury among many EU governments and officials. On Monday, the European Commission took the unprecedented step of barring EU commissioners from attending meetings held in Hungary under the country's EU presidency. Some EU governments also plan to send only top civil servants, rather than government ministers, to ministerial meetings in Hungary, and 63 European Parliament lawmakers have asked the EU to suspend Budapest's voting rights in the bloc. Politico EU Reuters Washington Post  Financial Times  

EU Parliament body to discuss relations with Hungary's presidency of the bloc. The European Parliament's organizing body will discuss how to engage with Hungary during its European Union presidency following criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's surprise visits to Russia and China. Orban's "peace mission" implied he acted on behalf of the EU, drawing rebukes. Hungary's presidency organizes EU meetings and negotiations. EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola indicated ongoing discussions on how to interact with Hungary. The 720-member Parliament, starting a new term, faces potential polarization with increased far-right lawmakers and opposing socialist and green factions. Metsola, a Maltese lawmaker with a track record of staunch support for Ukraine, was approved with a large majority for a second term as head of the parliament in a vote on Tuesday. She aims to reduce polarizing rhetoric. Reuters 

Europe eyes Sweden’s conscription model to solve troop shortage. Germany, the Netherlands, and other European countries are considering adopting Sweden's conscription model to address troop shortages. Sweden's system, reinstated in 2017, screens 110,000 teenagers annually, selecting a quarter for physical and mental exams and drafting the best-suited third for 9 to 15 months of military service. This model was reintroduced following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson emphasized conscription's importance for military strength. The number of conscripts has doubled since 2017, with plans to increase further. European defense officials, including Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, have visited Sweden's conscription centers, recognizing the model's potential to strengthen military reserves. This system is gaining attention as European nations seek solutions to bolster their defense capabilities. Politico EU 

Romania sees initial contract to buy F-35 fighter jets, defense ministry says. Romania plans to sign an agreement with the U.S. to purchase 32 F-35 fighter jets for $6.5 billion, including logistics, training, and ammunition, with deliveries starting by 2030. Meanwhile, Romania has acquired 32 second-hand F-16 jets from Norway and 17 from Portugal since 2016. As a NATO member, Romania shares a border with Ukraine and has faced stray Russian drone fragments. Additionally, Romania will donate a Patriot system to Ukraine. Reuters 

Macron accepts French PM’s resignation, with no clear successor in sight. French President Emmanuel Macron has accepted Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's resignation but asked him to stay as caretaker until a new government forms, leaving France in political limbo. Attal offered to resign after Macron's Ensemble alliance lost in the parliamentary election. The French constitution allows the president to appoint a new prime minister without a set timeframe. The National Assembly must elect a new president, with Attal and his ministers eligible to vote. Macron faces challenges appointing a successor from the largest parliamentary group, the left-wing New Popular Front, due to internal divisions and his reluctance to work with their leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. CNN 

How EU could use Ukraine's pipelines when Russia deal ends. The European Union is negotiating with Azerbaijan to replace Russian gas exports through Ukraine, as Ukraine's transit deal with Russia expires at the end of 2024. Despite reduced gas flow due to the conflict, Ukraine's pipelines remain vital for European energy. Azerbaijan aims to increase gas exports to Europe but lacks short-term capacity. Experts suggest Azerbaijani gas might transit via Russia or through a gas-swapping deal, though logistical and political challenges persist. Ukraine's gas transit role has become less profitable, generating only $700 million in transit fees in 2021, necessitating higher gas volumes in any new deal to support its budget. Deutsche Welle 

A malfunction shuts one of four units at Russian nuclear power plant. One of four power units at the Rostov nuclear power plant in southern Russia was shut down due to a turbine generator malfunction, Rosatom and the energy ministry said on Tuesday. The incident, which caused temporary power usage restrictions in the region, is under investigation with no abnormal radiation detected. The plant, the largest in southern Russia, normally provides around 75% of the power for the Rostov region. The region is experiencing power outages due to an abnormal heatwave. Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Acting foreign minister says Iran open to resuming nuclear accord talks. Iran's acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, expressed openness to resuming nuclear agreement negotiations with the U.S. Preparing to address the United Nations Security Council, he emphasized strengthening ties with China, Russia, and neighboring countries. He called for action against Israel. The Biden administration is currently not ready to resume talks. Bagheri Kani assumed his role after the deaths of former foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and President Ebrahim Raisi. Reuters 

U.S. military says Islamic State attacks in Iraq and Syria are on course to double compared to last year. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday announced that the Islamic State (IS) group is attempting to rebuild its presence, with the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq set to double compared to the previous year. IS claimed 153 attacks in the two nations in the first half of 2024, up from 121 attacks in 2023. CENTCOM attributed this increase to the group’s efforts to reconstitute after several years of reduced activity. The announcement coincides with the 10th anniversary of IS declaring its caliphate, which once controlled significant territories in Iraq and Syria, enforced extreme interpretations of Islam, and committed atrocities against minority groups like the Yazidis. Despite losing territorial control in Iraq by 2017 and in Syria by 2019, IS sleeper cells remain active. Associated Press 

Islamic State takes responsibility for deadly attack at Shi'ite mosque in Oman. Islamic State on Tuesday claimed responsibility for a deadly assault on a Shi'ite Muslim mosque in Oman’s capital of Muscat, which resulted in at least nine deaths, including three attackers. This uncommon security breach in the oil-rich Gulf nation occurred on Monday and has sparked concerns that Islamic State may be trying to expand its influence into new territories. According to the group's statement, three suicide attackers targeted Shi'ite worshippers, who were practicing their annual rituals at a temple in the Wadi al-Kabir district. The attackers fired on worshippers and engaged in gunfire with Omani security forces until morning. Islamic State released a video of the attack and reported that over 30 Shi'ite Muslims and five Omani security personnel, including a police officer, were killed or injured. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China, Russia launch live-fire naval drills in South China Sea. China and Russia have commenced live-fire naval exercises in the South China Sea, as reported by their state media. This commencement ceremony of the exercise, named "Maritime Cooperation - 2024," took place in the Chinese port of Zhanjiang. The drills involve ships from Russia's Pacific Fleet and China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, focusing on joint air defense and anti-submarine drills, with each nation deploying at least three vessels. The exercises, which include artillery firing drills, follow a previous joint naval patrol in the north Pacific. These activities signify deepening military cooperation between the two nations, aimed at enhancing their ability to respond to maritime security threats. The drills' exact location in the contested South China Sea was not specified. Moscow and Beijing have strengthened their relationship in the wake of U.S. sanctions on both countries. Reuters 

China ramps up military education for younger ages to help sow ‘seeds’ of patriotism. China is increasing military education for primary and secondary school students to instill patriotism and enhance military awareness amid geopolitical tensions, especially with the U.S. Following Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan, educational programs emphasize national defense and resisting foreign ideologies. New amendments to China’s National Defence Education Law require military awareness from age six and combat training for older students. Concerns over declining military recruitment, driven by falling birth rates and social influences, are prompting these initiatives. Despite efforts, experts doubt the effectiveness of such programs in significantly improving recruitment or addressing Beijing's long-term military challenges. South China Morning Post 

South China Sea: Chinese, Philippine leaders to have direct hotline to stop clashes at sea. China and the Philippines have established a direct communication hotline between their presidential offices to prevent escalating confrontations in the South China Sea. This agreement follows previous attempts to manage disputes at lower levels, particularly around two contentious shoals. Tensions have persisted, risking larger conflicts. The new hotline aims to improve crisis management and includes potential communication channels between their coastguards. This development follows recent violent clashes and difficulties in reaching Chinese officials during emergencies. South China Morning Post Reuters

TSMC shares down as Trump says Taiwan should pay for its defense. In remarks to Bloomberg Businessweek, published on Tuesday, U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said that Taiwan should pay Washington for its defense, arguing that the sovereign island provides nothing in return. His comments sparked a drop in shares of chip manufacturer TSMC, a key player in global semiconductor production. Trump claimed the U.S. was “no different than an insurance company,” and highlighted Taipei’s significant role in the chip industry. Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai responded to Trump’s comments by emphasizing Taiwan's efforts to strengthen its own defense budget and responsibilities. Taiwan's government, prioritizing defense modernization, insists on its self-reliance for security. The U.S. legally supports Taipei's defense but has no formal defense agreement, and the island has received mixed signals from U.S. leaders regarding defense commitments. The Taiwanese foreign ministry did not comment on Trump’s statement, though TSMC saw a 2.4% drop in its shares. Analysts viewed Trump's remarks as political rhetoric and maintained confidence in TSMC's market strength. The company is investing heavily in new factories, including in the U.S., while Taiwan deals with delays in arms deliveries from Washington due to prioritization of aid to Ukraine. Reuters

Thai police say cyanide killed 6 in Bangkok luxury hotel, including two U.S. citizens.  Cyanide poisoning was likely the cause of the deaths of six people whose bodies were found late Tuesday in a room in the plush Grand Hyatt Erawan hotel in Bangkok, Thai police said Wednesday. All the dead were of Vietnamese ethnicity, and two were U.S. nationals. Cyanide was found on drinking glasses, teacups and a teapot in the room. Interviews with relatives of the dead revealed there had been a dispute over debt and an investment, police said. Police believe that one of the group added cyanide to tea, hot water and milk brought by room service; all six teacups showed traces of the poison.  The suspect was among the dead, police said.  The U.S. FBI assisted police with the investigation. Reuters Associated Press 

AFRICA

More than 10 million people displaced by Sudan war, IOM says. The war in Sudan has displaced over 10 million people, or 20% of the population, since it began in April 2023, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This includes 2.2 million who have fled to other countries and nearly 7.8 million displaced internally. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has also led to a severe hunger crisis affecting half of the population. Recent RSF activities in Sennar state displaced an additional 150,000 people, while Gedaref state faces challenges hosting 668,000 displaced individuals amid heavy rains and ongoing RSF incursions. Reuters 

Somali gunmen kill five, steal heavy weapons after looting convoy. An ambush by militiamen left at least five dead in central Somalia after the suspects seized heavy weapons, according to local government and residents on Tuesday. The convoy, which was traveling with a security escort, was attacked near Abudwaq by militiamen from a local clan, who overpowered the security forces. The weapons, including machine guns, anti-aircraft weapons, and rocket-propelled grenades, came from Ethiopia. A security adviser to the president of Galmudug State confirmed the fatalities and that the weapons fell into civilian hands. An analyst with Sahan Research described the incident as a significant arms proliferation event and criticized the lifting of the decades-long arms embargo as a strategic mistake. The U.N. Security Council fully lifted the arms embargo in December, a move the Somali government supported to bolster its national forces against security threats, including the insurgency by al Shabaab, an affiliate of al Qaeda. Reuters

Kenyan anti-government protests flare, one killed. Turbulent anti-government protests in Kenya have led to at least one fatality and ongoing skirmishes between demonstrators and police. The protests, initially sparked a month ago by proposed tax hikes, have persisted even after President William Ruto withdrew the legislation and dismissed most of his cabinet. Protesters demand Ruto's resignation and systemic changes to address corruption and poor governance. A human rights commission reported at least 50 deaths and hundreds of injuries since the protests began. On Tuesday, large demonstrations occurred in at least 23 of Kenya's 47 counties, with significant unrest in Kitengela and Nairobi. Police used tear gas and fired shots, while protesters burned tires and chanted "Ruto must go!" Despite government claims of restraint, activists and witnesses reported police aggression. Reuters

CYBER & TECH

Suspected Iranian state hackers targets Israeli organizations with new malware. The suspected Iranian state hacking group MuddyWater is targeting organizations in Israel and across the Middle East with a previously unseen custom backdoor.  Researchers at Check Point, based in Tel Aviv,have dubbed it BugSleep. Researchers at Sekoia call it MuddyRot.  Check Point experts say the new tool is still under development: Some of the samples collected for analysis contained bugs, and parts of the code were poorly written. However, the threat actor “is continuously improving BugSleep's functionality and addressing bugs,” researchers said in a report Monday.  MuddyWater is affiliated with Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security and has been active since at least 2017.  The Record

Senators press AT&T, Snowflake for answers on wide-ranging data breach. A bipartisan duo of U.S. senators, Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), have demanded answers from AT&T and data storage company Snowflake regarding a recent breach that compromised the records of nearly all AT&T customers. In letters to the CEOs of both companies, the senators expressed concerns that the stolen data could be sold to criminals and foreign intelligence agencies. The breach, which also affected other Snowflake clients like Ticketmaster and Advance Auto Parts, was described as preventable. The senators have set a deadline of July 29 for the companies to provide details on the breach, including how hackers accessed Snowflake services and what investigations have been conducted.  The Record

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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