Report for Wednesday, July 10, 2024

THE TOP HEADLINES IN TODAY'S REPORT

Wednesday, July 10

Ukraine will stop Putin, Biden tells NATO in forceful speech

ANALYSIS–U.S. Officials Say Russia Is Unlikely to Take Much More Ukrainian Territory

U.S. intelligence officials say Russia making major push to influence 2024 election

Taiwan reports Chinese carrier moves close to Philippines on way to Pacific exercises

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

As NATO Marks A Milestone, Critics Blast Slow Pace of Ukraine Aid  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

How Hezbollah beats Israeli surveillance. Israel’s electronic surveillance technology is among the world’s most sophisticated. It trains cameras, sensors and drones on enemies, tracks their cell phones and hacks their computers.  With the intelligence taken from these methods, the Israeli Defense Forces has hunted and killed hundreds of Hezbollah commanders and fighters.  Hezbollah has learned and adapted. It has banned cell phones from the battlefield. Its couriers deliver messages in person. It has its own fixed-line telecommunications network dating back to the early 2000s. Its operatives use VPN apps and code words that change frequently for sensitive subjects such as weapons and meetings. It uses its own drones to spy on Israel's tech. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah refers to the strategy as "blinding" Israel. Reuters details the group’s counter-surveillance measures. Reuters

Palestinian Red Crescent:  Israeli strike kills more than two dozen near Khan Younis.  Palestinian Red Crescent officials said an Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza hit refugee tents outside a school in the town of Abassan east of Khan Younis, killing at least 29 people, most of them women and children.  Advancing tanks in Gaza City sent residents fleeing. The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the strike targeted a Hamas fighter who took part in the Oct. 7 raid on Israel.  Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Gaza government media office, said Israeli strikes on central Gaza areas killed 60 Palestinians and wounded dozens of others on Tuesday.   Reuters  Reuters  

Two Israelis critically hurt in Hezbollah attack on Golan.  Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets at the Golan Heights Tuesday. One rocket hit a car in the Golan that instantly killed a man and woman.  The Lebanese militant group was retaliating after a former bodyguard of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli strike. Reuters 
Egypt, US, Israel spy chiefs in Doha for Gaza ceasefire talks.  Intelligence agency leaders from Egypt, the U.S., and Israel are convening in Doha Wednesday to push for a deal on Gaza. Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel said he’s "on a mission to bring viewpoints closer between Hamas and Israel in order to reach a truce agreement as soon as possible." Reuters 

Israeli defense minister approves plan to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox. Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday approved a plan to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, a decision that may increase tensions within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, which includes two ultra-Orthodox parties. These parties oppose conscription to keep their constituents in religious seminaries and out of the military. The Defense Ministry said that Gallant's decision followed discussions with top military officials. The order involves an initial screening and evaluation of potential recruits, typically starting at age 16, with military service beginning at 18. This decision comes after Israel's Supreme Court ruled that ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students must be drafted, ending a long-standing exemption. Reuters Times of Israel

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Type of Russian missile that struck Kyiv children’s hospital uses Western components. A Russian Kh-101 missile that struck a Kyiv children's hospital relied on Western components, highlighting Russia's evasion of sanctions. The missile, one of Russia’s most advanced, was captured on camera before hitting the hospital, which Russia denied targeting. Ukrainian analysis revealed 16 Western-made electronics inside, sourced from US and European companies via China and other countries. Despite sanctions, Russia continues producing these missiles using civilian components. “Western technology is allowing them to build these smarter missiles, which allow their terror attacks to get past our struggling air defenses,” said Olena Bilousova, a research lead on sanctions at the KSE Institute in Kyiv. Monday’s mass missile attacks killed at least 44 civilians, showcasing Russia's strategy of terrorizing populations and undermining morale. In 2021, the year before Putin ordered the full-scale invasion, Russia produced just 56 Kh-101 missiles. After the Kremlin kept arms factories running in round-the-clock shifts, Russia produced 420 Kh-101s last year, according to a report last month by the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank. Financial Times  

Kyiv hospital took a direct hit from Russian missile, UN analysis suggests. A United Nations rights mission reported a "high likelihood" that Kyiv's main children's hospital, Okhmatdyt, was directly hit by a Russian missile during airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, despite Kremlin denials. The attack, part of the deadliest series of strikes in months, killed at least 44 people across Ukraine, including four children and two people at the hospital. Ukraine's security service provided evidence of a Russian Kh-101 missile, while Russia blamed Ukrainian anti-missile fire. Eight children were wounded, and damage was caused, prompting millions in donations for rebuilding. The UN Security Council convened to address the attack, and the International Criminal Court is investigating. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Russia and sought increased military support from NATO allies. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed sorrow for the loss of children during a visit to Moscow, drawing criticism from Zelensky for the trip. Reuters 

Ukraine will stop Putin; Biden tells NATO in forceful speech. At the NATO summit on Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to strongly defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, using the global stage to show allies he can still lead. Addressing NATO members, Biden said Vladimir Putin's ambitions to subjugate Ukraine will be defeated. "Ukraine can and will stop Putin," Biden said. "Today NATO is stronger than it's ever been in its history.” Biden and the leaders of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Romania issued a joint statement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announcing the delivery of five additional Patriot and other strategic air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities, civilians, and soldiers. Biden surprised NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Despite Biden's confident speech, concerns about his fitness for office persist, especially given the prospect of a potential return of Donald Trump, who has questioned NATO's defense commitments. Reuters  Washington Post 

Zelensky Urges NATO to Help Kyiv Now, Before the US Election. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged NATO allies to decisively help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion before November’s US presidential election. Speaking at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington on Tuesday, he called for the US to permit Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia, including air bases, and more deep-strike capabilities to hit inside Kremlin-occupied Crimea. The firm tone of the address underscores the sense of urgency that Ukraine is feeling with the war well into its third year and the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House following the election. He challenged Trump’s claims of ending the war by inauguration, saying the Republican leader has presented no plan. NATO allies promised additional long-range air-defense systems and indicated an “irreversible” path to NATO membership for Ukraine, though Zelensky signaled this fell short of the nation’s hopes. His choice of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation as the speech venue is symbolic for its association with the Republican establishment and Reagan's foreign policy of peace through strength. Facing skepticism over aid among some U.S. Republicans, Zelensky's speech aimed to garner bipartisan support. Bloomberg Ronald Reagan Institute  Wall Street Journal  Reuters 

Ukraine seeks end to restrictions on American weapons after children’s hospital struck. Ukraine is pressing the Biden administration at the NATO Summit to lift all restrictions on using American-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets inside Russia. The push follows Monday’s missile attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv and other Russian strikes that killed 44 people nationwide. The U.S. allows Ukraine to use these weapons only in Crimea and near the Kharkiv border. Ukrainian officials argue that lifting the restrictions is crucial for defense despite U.S. concerns about provoking Russian escalation. Politico 

Czech minister calls attackers of Kyiv hospital 'dregs of humanity'. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky on Tuesday summoned Russia's ambassador following a missile attack on Kyiv's main children's hospital, calling the attackers "dregs of humanity." The strike on Monday was part of a Russian barrage of missile attacks that killed 44 people throughout Ukraine. Russia denied the hospital attack, blaming Ukrainian anti-missile fire. Reuters 

US and NATO allies to deliver 'dozens' of air defense systems to Ukraine, including 4 Patriots. At the NATO summit, the U.S. and nine other NATO allies agreed to send dozens of air defense systems to Ukraine, including at least four Patriot batteries and additional systems like NASAMS, HAWKs, and SAMP-T. The U.S., Germany, Romania, and the Netherlands will provide these systems rapidly, while Canada, Norway, Spain, and the UK will also contribute. This announcement follows a deadly Russian attack on Kyiv, underscoring the urgency. President Joe Biden emphasized Ukraine's priority in receiving these interceptors. President Volodymyr Zelensky commended the U.S.-led effort. Kyiv Independent White House France 24  Deutsche Welle  Washington Post 

Modi’s Moscow Visit Showcases a Less Isolated Putin, Angering Ukraine. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia, his first in five years, highlights the enduring relationship between India and Russia despite the West's efforts to isolate President Vladimir Putin over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Modi and Putin's friendly interactions on Monday contrasted sharply with the destruction in Ukraine from Monday’s Russian attack on a children's hospital and other strikes that killed at least 44 people. Modi received Russia’s highest civilian honor. Despite Western sanctions, the visit underscored India's imports of Russian oil – New Delhi is now the second-largest importer after China – and solidified economic and military cooperation. Modi reiterated his call for peace, yet India's balanced approach to Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a point of tension with the U.S. New York Times 

German defense minister seeks an additional €4 billion for Ukraine in 2024. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is seeking an additional €4 billion for arms aid to Ukraine for 2024, as the current budget of €7 billion is nearly exhausted. The funds are needed for more ammunition, spare parts, and possibly more Leopard 1A tanks. Pistorius has informally requested these funds from Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is urging fiscal restraint. The struggle for additional funding comes as Germany presents itself as a key supporter of Ukraine at the July 9-11 NATO summit. Speigel  

NATO to announce new military command to train Ukrainian troops, appoint Kyiv representative, Sullivan says. At the NATO summit, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced that NATO will establish a new military command in Germany to train and equip Ukrainian troops and appoint a senior NATO representative in Kyiv. This initiative aims to deepen Ukraine's ties with NATO. Kyiv Independent Aljazeera  

NATO Allies Confront ‘Serious Gap’ in Arms Production to Counter Russia. At the NATO summit, U.S. and European leaders admitted a “serious gap” in arms production needed to support Ukraine against Russia's invasion. Despite efforts to ramp up military-industrial output, NATO has struggled to meet Ukraine’s needs. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the war exposed production capacity and interoperability deficiencies. Russia's attacks, including Monday’s strike on a Kyiv children's hospital, underscore the urgency. NATO has provided air defense systems, but these efforts fall short in countering the near-daily Russian barrages. Production challenges, including supply-chain issues and labor shortages, have delayed scaling up critical weapons like the Javelin anti-tank missiles and 155mm artillery shells. Leaders pledged new investments and better coordination, but translating political commitments into increased factory output remains challenging. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur highlighted the difficulty, noting delays in fulfilling orders. Wall Street Journal 

Russia lacks munitions, troops for big Ukraine offensive, says NATO official. A senior NATO official said Tuesday that Russia lacks the munitions and troops to launch a major offensive in Ukraine, needing significant supplies from countries like Iran and North Korea. Russia maintains heavy offensive pressure despite suffering high losses and using undermanned units. The official highlighted a covert Russian campaign to undermine European support for Ukraine through arson, sabotage, and assassination plots. NATO has increased intelligence sharing to counter these efforts. Russia can sustain its war economy for 3-4 years, recruiting about 30,000 troops monthly. Ukraine's defenses are improving, but it will take time to mount large-scale offensive operations. Reuters  

ANALYSIS–U.S. Officials Say Russia Is Unlikely to Take Much More Ukrainian Territory. U.S. officials believe Russia is unlikely to gain much more Ukrainian territory in the coming months due to poorly trained forces and strong Ukrainian defenses bolstered by Western munitions. Russia has suffered high casualties and its advances have slowed. NATO leaders at the 75th-anniversary summit can claim that their support for Ukraine is working, although Ukraine faces tough months ahead. The focus is on integrating Ukraine into NATO and the European Union. Concerns remain about Russia’s arms acquisitions from Iran, North Korea, and China. The war’s future could hinge on U.S. policy. New York Times 

High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t. High-tech Western weapons like the Excalibur artillery round and Himars systems initially performed well in Ukraine but became less effective as Russia adapted with advanced electronic warfare capabilities. GPS-guided munitions were disrupted, causing them to go astray or fail to detonate. Newer systems like the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb also failed. Despite successes with some Western weapons like ATACMS missiles, Russia's countermeasures pose ongoing challenges. The need for rapid adaptation and the importance of traditional unguided artillery were highlighted. Some modern Western systems are withheld to prevent Russia and China from developing countermeasures. Wall Street Journal 

Orban parrots Putin’s lines on Ukraine in a leaked letter to EU chief. In a leaked letter to European Council President Charles Michel, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin's stance on Ukraine, claiming “time is on the side of the Russian forces” without evidence. Orban’s letter, dated July 5, reflects Putin’s views on the war and suggests the European Union should lead peace efforts as the U.S. focuses on its presidential election. Orban predicted severe losses if the war continues. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Orban after Russian forces bombed a children's hospital in Kyiv on Monday, part of a missile barrage that killed 44 people in Ukraine. Politico 

As NATO Summit Opens, 2 U.S. Lawmakers Back More Aggressive Military Support for Ukraine. On Tuesday, as the NATO summit opened in Washington, U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (Republican-Iowa) and Representative Tom Suozzi (Democrat-New York) advocated for more aggressive military support for Ukraine. The pair, who visited Ukraine in April as part of a bipartisan delegation, called for providing Ukraine with the necessary military equipment to strike inside Russia and ensure victory against Moscow. At an event sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Ernst emphasized the need for a clear strategy and criticized the Biden administration for its slow response. “We need to give them what they need,” Ernst said. Suozzi highlighted the importance of showing Russian President Vladimir Putin that his aggression would not be tolerated, especially after Monday’s Russian strikes on Ukraine, killing 44 people, including an attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Both lawmakers stressed the urgency of lifting restrictions on U.S. weapons use by Ukraine to counter Russian attacks effectively. “Sometimes you have to punch a bully in the nose,” Suozzi said. RFE/RL 

Ukraine's state arms producer opens office in Washington. Ukraine's state arms producer, Ukroboronprom, has opened its first foreign office in Washington to foster joint US-Ukrainian defense projects and integrate with NATO's defense industrial base. This move aims to bolster Ukraine's weapons production amidst Russia's invasion. Ukraine is seeking joint ventures and investments to enhance its defense sector, which has been historically hampered by underinvestment and corruption. A previous agreement with two U.S. firms to produce 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine will commence in two years. Reuters 

Russia says its forces take control of Yasnobrodivka in eastern Ukraine. Russia's defense ministry announced its forces took control of Yasnobrodivka in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Ukraine disputes the loss, saying it continues to defend the village. The area has seen intense fighting, with Ukraine repelling over 20 Russian advances in the past 24 hours. Reuters 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, July 9, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed on Tuesday to strengthen their countries' political, economic, energy, and military-technical cooperation. Putin is working to enhance relations with non-Western countries, emphasizing cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS to create a "Eurasian security architecture." Modi tacitly supported Russia’s narrative on the Ukraine war in exchange for deeper cooperation in various sectors. Some US officials believe Ukraine can win by moving closer to NATO without reclaiming all occupied lands, despite Putin's demands for full Ukrainian capitulation. Independent investigations confirmed a Russian missile struck Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv on Monday. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Russian infrastructure in several regions overnight on Monday-Tuesday. Putin appointed new military prosecutors on Monday. Newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s commitment to a strategic partnership with Russia. The US Department of Justice revealed Russian state-operated bot farms spreading disinformation in the US and abroad.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces made confirmed advances southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian troops advanced north of Kharkiv City. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

US Justice Department says it disrupted Russian social media influence operation. The U.S. Justice Department disrupted a Russian operation using AI-enhanced fake social media accounts to spread pro-Kremlin messages in the U.S. and abroad ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The Justice Department seized two domain names and nearly 1,000 social media accounts involved. This marks the first public U.S. accusation of a foreign government using AI for influence operations. The campaign, organized by a private Russian intelligence group and funded by the Kremlin, was run from a server in the Netherlands. Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press 

NATO Summit Puts Biden’s Fitness Under a Microscope. The July 9-11 NATO summit is a critical test for President Joe Biden as he faces scrutiny over his fitness for a second term. Initially seen as an opportunity to showcase his leadership, the summit now serves as a pivotal moment following his poor debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27. Biden's every move will be closely watched, with any mistakes potentially fueling calls for him to exit the presidential race. Biden remains confident, citing his strong foreign policy record. NATO leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, while Biden aims to demonstrate his capability and secure bipartisan support amid political challenges. Wall Street Journal  

Kishida says Japan must strengthen NATO ties.   Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Russia's deepening military ties with North Korea impels Japan to forge closer ties with NATO.  Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow, Kishida said. He said nations must confront new security threats that transcend geographical boundaries, such as cyber-attacks and conflicts in space.  Reuters 

Starmer makes first foreign trip as PM, to Washington for NATO summit.  Keir Starmer is on his first visit to Washington as PM for the NATO summit, to underscore the UK's commitment to Ukraine. Britain is the third largest donor to Ukraine among NATO members behind the U.S. and Germany.  But it can’t help Ukraine much these days because it doesn’t possess the air defense systems and other systems that Kyiv is desperately seeking.  Guardian South China Morning Post

U.S. intelligence officials say Russia making major push to influence 2024 election.   Senior intelligence officials, briefing reporters on foreign threats to the election, didn’t mention Trump by name, but said that Russia was still using social media and other online propaganda efforts that mirrored the 2020 and 2016 election cycles, when Moscow promoted Trump and tried to undermine Democratic candidates.  “We haven’t observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections,” a senior official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said.  Iran has become “increasingly aggressive” in its foreign influence efforts, covertly encouraging protests against the war in Gaza, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, said in a separate statement Tuesday.  Wall Street Journal

Aboard the U.S. Air Force Ghostrider.  The U.S. Air Force AC-130J, known as Ghostrider, is loaded with cameras that can pick out objects from 50,000 feet and carries a 105-millimeter howitzer, the biggest gun ever mounted on a fixed-wing plane.  CNN takes a ride.  CNN 

Pentagon aims to contain costs of new Sentinel nuclear missile.   The military  has told the U.S. Air Force to restructure the program to develop the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile in order to contain its costs.  The program’s original cost estimate of $77.7 billion has more than doubled, to $140.9 billion, the Pentagon said, and could rise to $160 billion. Defense News 

NATO agency orders $700 million worth of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.  Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that the NATO order will keep the production line running through 2029.  The previous order for Stingers made by RTX's  Raytheon division was for a U.S. Army contract for $625 million in May 2022.   Reuters

Haitian prime minister tours recaptured hospital in capital after police expel gang. Haiti's newly appointed Prime Minister Garry Conille and Police Chief Normil Rameau visited the country's largest hospital, the Hospital of the State University of Haiti, after it was reclaimed from armed gangs this weekend. Police took control of the facility on Sunday night following months of escalating gang violence. The hospital, left in a ravaged state with extensive damage and debris, previously served about 1,500 people daily and is critical for the poor who cannot afford private healthcare. The takeover is part of a broader effort to restore stability, with the support of a U.N.-backed contingent of Kenyan police. The hospital, described as a "war zone," is expected to be fully operational by February 2026. Gang violence has severely impacted Haiti's healthcare system, with gangs looting and destroying medical institutions in the capital, where they control up to 80% of the area. Associated Press

EUROPE

ANALYSIS–Russia Is a Strategic Spoiler in the Indo-Pacific. Russia maintains a formidable presence in the Indo-Pacific despite its focus on the Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's recent visits to China, North Korea, and Vietnam have bolstered key strategic partnerships. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia on Monday and Tuesday further solidified the Russo-Indian relationship, with both leaders pledging enhanced cooperation in political, economic, energy, and military-technical fields. Russia's influence in Southeast Asia was evident as many countries abstained from the Ukraine peace summit. While Russia lacks the influence of China or the U.S., it still plays a role, leveraging relationships to counter U.S. dominance. Foreign Policy 

Russian spy service accuses US of plotting 'regime change' in Georgia. Russia's foreign spy agency accused the U.S. of plotting "regime change" in Georgia following the Oct. 26 parliamentary election, a claim the U.S. called "completely false." The assertion by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service lacked evidence but highlighted warming relations between Moscow and Georgia. The U.S. dismissed the allegation as ironic, given Russia's occupation of Georgian regions. Although officials have previously accused Western countries of backing opposition groups, Georgia's ruling party did not comment. Public opinion in Georgia remains strongly pro-Kyiv. Reuters 

Switzerland signs membership bid for European Sky Shield project. Switzerland has applied to join the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) air defense scheme amid heightened security concerns due to Russia's war in Ukraine. The initiative, launched by Germany in 2022, aims to reduce costs by coordinating procurement and cooperation on air and missile defense systems. Swiss national armaments chief Urs Loher signed the membership application, which ESSI member states will now review. Reuters 

Europe 'Too Naive' About Russia, Must Step Up Ukraine Aid, Danish PM Says. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized Europe for being “too naive” about Russia and urged increased military support to Ukraine. Speaking Tuesday at a Council of Foreign Relations conference in Washington during the NATO Summit, Frederiksen emphasized the need for faster, more robust aid, particularly air defense systems. She highlighted Ukraine’s urgent requests for Patriot systems and NATO’s expected new military aid, including F-16 fighter jets. Frederiksen called for enhanced European defense spending and local defense production in Ukraine. She warned against Russia's imperial ambitions and said the Kremlin is trying to destabilize the world. “They are acting in an extremely aggressive manner every day, and we have accepted this for too long,” she said. RFE/RL 

Russia issues arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya. On Tuesday, Russian authorities issued an arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya, widow of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Accused of involvement in an "extremist" group, Navalnaya, who resides outside Russia, faces arrest if she returns. Navalnaya condemned the decision, calling President Vladimir Putin a "killer and a war criminal." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized the warrant as a move against freedom and democracy. Navalnaya continues her late husband's anti-corruption work and activism despite the crackdown. Deutsche Welle Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

Why Iran's new president-elect has a constrained ability to bring about change. The election of 69-year-old Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran's president has raised hopes for social freedoms and improved relations with the West among Iranians, but significant policy changes are unlikely. Pezeshkian, a moderate, may have some influence on the economy, but his power to permit social freedoms will be limited by the ruling clerics and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Under Tehran's dual system of clerical and republican rule, the president cannot independently change major policies like the nuclear program or foreign relations. However, Pezeshkian's election is seen as a setback for hardliners, as he advocates for a pragmatic foreign policy and the relaxation of tensions with major powers to revive the 2015 nuclear pact. His campaign promises and potential revived talks with the West could lift U.S. sanctions, which have severely impacted Iran's economy. However, Washington has indicated it is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Tehran under Pezeshkian. Fundamental changes within the nation are doubtful. In regional policy, Pezeshkian is expected to maintain Iran's current stance, supporting resistance movements and opposing Israel. Reuters

Iranian Navy warship Sahand sinks in spite of efforts to rebalance.  The Sahand, an Iranian Navy frigate, sank in shallow waters on Tuesday in Bandar Abbas after briefly being repositioned following its initial capsizing on Sunday, according to Nournews agency. The ship, which capsized due to water ingress during repairs at a wharf, was rebalanced with difficulty on Monday but ultimately sank after the rope holding it broke. Launched in 2018, the Sahand was a stealth warship equipped with a helicopter flight deck, torpedo launchers, anti-aircraft and anti-ship guns, missiles, and electronic warfare capabilities. The nation has developed a significant domestic arms industry due to international sanctions and embargoes. This incident follows the sinking of the Iranian Navy ship Kharg in 2021, which caught fire during a training mission in the Gulf of Oman but resulted in no casualties. Reuters

U.S. cautions Iran against interfering in Gaza protests on American soil.  Washington on Tuesday accused Iran of exploiting Gaza-related protests in the U.S., deeming this behavior unacceptable. This accusation followed a warning from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who stated that individuals linked to Iran's government had posed as activists online, encouraged protests about Gaza, and even provided financial support to demonstrators. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre emphasized that Americans have the right to peacefully express their diverse views on the Gaza conflict, highlighting that this freedom is fundamental to U.S. democracy. RFE/RL

ASIA & OCEANIA

China uses rare euphemism for betrayal, disloyalty in indictment of disgraced Chinese defense minister Wei Fenghe, suggesting he was compromised. In a rare hint, the Chinese government has suggested that Wei Fenghe, the nation’s expelled former defense minister, may have been compromised in some way by unfriendly forces. Wei Fenghe and his successor Li Shangfu were unexpectedly impeached and expelled from the Communist Party on June 27. And though Beijing hasn't disclosed specific details of their offenses, Wei's impeachment included the unique and historically significant phrase “zhongcheng shi jie,” meaning “being disloyal and losing one’s chastity,” which implies betrayal or defection. This phrase, rarely used in modern Chinese politics, has historical roots in Chinese history, indicating moral degradation and disloyalty, and has been associated with traitorous figures. Wei, out of all China’s recently disgraced generals, was the only one described in this manner. Experts suggest that this severe accusation implies his actions might have gone beyond accepting bribes and may have compromised Beijing's security to a hostile force. The ongoing anti-corruption campaign led by Xi’s Communist Party continues to target senior officials, with a record number of investigations last year and in the first half of this year. South China Morning Post

Chinese state-owned defense firms vow to handle pervasive corruption in wake of investigations. Accusations of "polluting the equipment sector” against former defense minister Li Shangfu have prompted Chinese state-owned defense companies to pledge to intensify their anti-corruption efforts and to ensure better regulatory compliance. Nine companies, including those in nuclear, aerospace, and shipbuilding sectors, promised to toughen regulations on bidding, procurement, hiring, and quality control following inspections by Beijing’s top anti-corruption agency, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). Li Shangfu and his predecessor Wei Fenghe were expelled from the Communist Party and are under investigation for corruption. Li, with a background in aerospace, was accused of severely damaging the political environment in the military equipment sector. The ongoing anti-corruption campaign has already implicated several senior commanders and defense company executives, with nine generals and equipment development department officials dismissed from the National People’s Congress last year. South China Morning Post 

Chinese security expert claims exposed docs on U.S. F-35 and F-15 appear authentic. A Chinese information security expert has verified the authenticity of recently leaked documents, allegedly containing technical information about the F-35 fighter jet and sensitive U.S. weapons. A Russian pilot using the handle Fighter-bomber on Telegram claimed to have received 250 gigabytes of U.S. military data from an American company. He shared some of these documents, which include manuals for the F-35 and F-15 jets, the Switchblade drone, and precision-guided missiles, on his channel, which has over 500,000 subscribers. Tang, a senior officer at Beijing’s cybersecurity firm Rising Information Technology, verified the documents' authenticity but noted that they are not blueprints or design documents, thus their value can only be assessed by professionals. A Chinese aviation blogger known as Makayev categorized the leaks into three types, all involving flight, engine, and user maintenance manuals. Makayev and others doubt the practical value of the leaks, as the documents seem more like simplified maintenance guides rather than detailed design insights. However, there is speculation that more sensitive information might still be released. Tang suggested the leaks might have originated from breaches within U.S. military companies or third parties. Some documents were partially redacted, indicating possible declassification. Tang stressed China's robust data security laws, suggesting similar leaks are unlikely there. South China Morning Post

Taiwan reports Chinese carrier moves close to Philippines on way to Pacific exercises. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported Wednesday that the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong passed close to the northern Philippines on its way to drills in the Pacific, accompanied by 36 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters and H-6 bombers. Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed that the Shandong traveled further south through the Balintang Channel to the Western Pacific, rather than the usual Bashi Channel. The Philippines expressed concern over the carrier group's deployment, urging adherence to international laws. Japan's Defense Forces also detected the Shandong and its escorts near Okinawa on Tuesday night, prompting Japanese navy and air responses. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed to U.S. representative Raymond Greene the commitment to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S., Taipei's main arms supplier, reiterated support for Taiwan's defense. As the island prepares for its annual Han Kuang war games starting July 22, Beijing has increased military activities, with over 270 Chinese aircraft detected this month. Reuters

U.S. envoy to Taiwan vows to aid island with self-defense. The U.S. top envoy to Taiwan, Raymond Greene, pledged strong support for Taipei's self-defense as China increases military threats and intimidation. Greene, who started his role as director of the American Institute in Taiwan on Monday, met with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, emphasizing Washington’s commitment to Taiwan's defense and regional stability. President Lai reaffirmed the sovereign island's intention to maintain the status quo with Beijing, despite China’s territorial claims and threats of force. Associated Press

Chinese coast guard says it 'allowed' Philippines to evacuate ill personnel on disputed grounded ship. China's coast guard claims that it “allowed” the Philippines to evacuate an ill person from a grounded warship on the hotly disputed Second Thomas Shoal on humanitarian grounds. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) called this claim "ridiculous," asserting that the statement only highlights Beijing's illegal presence in their exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as well as the Chinese view that preserving human life requires approval. The Chinese Coast Guard stated that it monitored the rescue operation on Sunday, which it said was requested by Manila. However, the PCG reported that China's coast guard obstructed and delayed the medical evacuation. A month prior, the PCG had accused China of blocking a different medical evacuation, labeling the actions "barbaric and inhumane." Reuters

South Korea’s Yoon says North Korea-Russia weapons trade spells a global threat. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol reiterated his warning that North Korea's arms trade with Russia poses a global threat to peace. Speaking in Hawaii on Tuesday, Yoon emphasized the importance of strong alliances among liberal democracies to safeguard freedom against "reckless elements." Yoon discussed the combined defense posture of U.S. and South Korean forces with Admiral Samuel Paparo of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, arguing that solidarity and strength among value-sharing countries are crucial to protect freedom, democracy, and economic prosperity. He stressed that Pyongyang’s illegal weapons trade with Moscow endangers global peace, not just the Korean peninsula. His remarks came ahead of a visit to Washington for a NATO summit. Worries have risen since North Korea’s Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense pact with Russian leader Vladimir Putin last month, deepening its military buildup. Reuters 

Experts say North Korea’s balloons, GPS spoofing increase dangers for airlines. Aviation experts argue that North Korea's repeated missile launches, sending of trash balloons, and GPS spoofing have heightened risks in South Korea’s airspace, clogging airline operations amid escalating tensions between the two countries. Starting in late May, Pyongyang has floated thousands of balloons carrying trash, including human excrement, into the South as a form of psychological warfare. The balloons even disrupted operations at Incheon airport, South Korea's largest international gateway, causing a three-hour suspension of takeoffs and landings. Alongside these balloon incursions, North Korea has increased interference with aviation navigation, including GPS spoofing, which misleads aircraft about their true location. Between May 29 and June 2, around 500 planes and hundreds of ships experienced GPS issues. Seoul has maintained 24-hour surveillance and adapted airline procedures, such as adding extra fuel for potential diversions. The disruption from the balloon campaign and GPS spoofing has made flying in the region more complex, with pilots at risk of drifting into North Korean airspace. The government has complained to the U.N. aviation body ICAO, which warned Pyongyang to cease. No major aviation accidents have been linked to GPS spoofing globally, but the dangers remain, especially given North Korea's threats to shoot down perceived reconnaissance flights. Reuters

Pakistan gives its top spy agency legal powers to tap telephone calls, messages.  Pakistan has granted legal permission for its military-run spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to tap telephone calls and messages, intensifying its influential role in the country's politics. The move has sparked opposition and social media outcry, given the military's significant history in shaping Pakistan's governments. Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar announced that the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecommunications was notified of this change on July 8th. He stressed that the measure aims to track criminal and terrorist activities, with safeguards against misuse to protect privacy. The federal government has empowered officers to intercept and trace calls for national security reasons. The opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, opposed the move. PTI leader Omar Ayub Khan expressed concerns that the ISI could use its powers against government lawmakers and vowed to challenge the decision in court. Rights advocates have questioned the legality and constitutionality of the decision. The army's Inter-Services Public Relations Wing did not comment. Reuters

AFRICA

ANALYSIS–The Right Way for America to Counter Russia in Africa. Russia's influence in Africa has grown through strategic partnerships and military support, especially in countries like Chad, Niger, Libya, and the Central African Republic. While the U.S. faces challenges countering Russia's advances due to regional security dynamics and historical ties, it should focus on supporting African democracies committed to good governance and economic stability. Washington must hold its partners to high standards, promote transparency, and highlight Russian misdeeds. By doing so, the U.S. can offer a more appealing and sustainable alternative to Russia's often self-serving and destabilizing presence in the region. Foreign Affairs

U.N. peacekeeping force in Congo pausing withdrawal, no timeline for next phase. The U.N. peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will temporarily stop its pullout from the country, with no timeline established for the next phase after the initial one completed in June. President Felix Tshisekedi last year requested an expedited withdrawal of peacekeepers, and the first phase in South Kivu was completed on June 25, though initially scheduled for April. Congo's ambassador to the U.N. blamed the delay of the next phase on continued aggression from Rwanda in North Kivu, which has escalated violence. He said that phase 2 of the withdrawal would proceed when conditions are favorable, following joint assessments. Both Congo and the U.N. have accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, allegations that Rwanda denies. The head of the U.N. mission confirmed there is "no timeline" for withdrawal from North Kivu or Ituri provinces. Congo's foreign minister, Therese Wamba Wagner, stressed the importance of avoiding a security vacuum and indicated that decisions on withdrawal would be made based on developments in North Kivu. Reuters

Nigeria’s NIGCOMSAT signs memorandum of understanding with MOMAS-EPAIL to enhance national security.  The Nigerian Communications Satellite Ltd (NIGCOMSAT) has partnered with MOMAS Equipment and Protective Applications International Ltd (EPAIL) to enhance communication infrastructure in Nigeria's defense sector and boost national security. The partnership was formalized with a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed at the MOMAS-EPAIL factory in Ogun state. NIGCOMSAT's Managing Director praised MOMAS-EPAIL's contributions to local content development in power, defense, and other sectors. She highlighted the partnership's importance for advancing national security through effective communication networks. The chairman of MOMAS-EPAIL noted that it had developed a robust information system to protect the security network and provide operational materials like armored vehicles. Space in Africa 

CYBER & TECH

Europe's Ariane 6 rocket launched after data glitch. Europe successfully launched the Ariane 6 rocket from French Guiana on Tuesday, marking a significant return to space. The launch of the uncrewed rocket, which featured the successful restart of the Vinci engine, was praised for restoring Europe’s independent access to space. Despite successfully deploying three sets of micro-satellites, the mission encountered a setback when a smaller power unit failed, preventing the release of the final payloads. The Ariane 6, developed at a cost of €4 billion by ArianeGroup, faced delays since its planned 2020 debut. Europe had no independent satellite launch capability following the retirement of the Ariane 5 rocket, in addition to geopolitical issues which have affected access to other launch systems. ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher confirmed plans for a second flight by year-end. The Ariane 6 aims to provide sovereign access to space for Europe amidst fierce competition from SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and China's growing launch capabilities. While the Ariane 6 has 29 missions planned, including 18 for Amazon's Kuiper internet constellation, its economic competitiveness remains a goal for the future. Reuters

U.S. creates global tech supply chains to counter China.  The New York Times interviews Ramin Toloui, the Stanford professor who served as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, who spearheaded diplomatic efforts to set up new supply chains for computer chips, green energy technology, electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. China dominates those industries.  The Biden administration wants to change that.   New York Times  

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Chase Moabery & Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief