Report for Wednesday, January 8, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Hamas says hard no to hostage deal without permanent ceasefire

Biden administration set to announce ‘substantial’ final weapons package for Ukraine

Trump won’t rule out military force to take Greenland and Panama Canal

NATO sends a fleet to guard Baltic Sea cables

U.S. accuses Sudan’s paramilitary forces of committing genocide.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Welcome to the Gray Zone and the Future of Great Power Competition.  In part one of his series, Cipher Brief Expert Dave Pitts explores the "gray zone," the ambiguous space between peace and war where adversarial nations like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea use unconventional tactics—cyberattacks, disinformation, incremental territorial encroachments, and covert operations—to challenge U.S. dominance and avoid direct military confrontation. Pitts highlights how advancements in technology, such as AI and drones, have amplified the effectiveness of these tactics, enabling smaller nations to achieve strategic gains that conventional war would not allow. He argues that the intensification of such activities suggests the emergence of a "Gray War," where systematic and coordinated gray zone actions aim to erode U.S. influence and pave the way for authoritarian power ascension, particularly by China. The gray zone, he posits, may already be the battlefield for a new type of global conflict.  The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Trump Administration’s Counterterrorism Policy Should Begin at Golan Heights.  Christopher Costa and Colin Clarke say that the U.S. should prioritize counterterrorism efforts in Syria, particularly in the Golan Heights region, to address the evolving terrorism threat and geopolitical competition. Doing so would emphasize the strategic importance of maintaining a U.S. presence in northeast Syria to counter ISIS resurgence and limit Iranian influence. The piece also highlights the complex dynamics involving various actors in Syria, including former al-Qaeda affiliates, Turkey, and Kurdish forces, and suggests that recent regional developments have weakened Iran and Russia's positions, necessitating a reassessment of U.S. policy in the area.  The Cipher Brief 

Opinion: Memo to the 47th President: A Ukraine Deal Would be Good; Russia’s Defeat Even Better. Former Kyiv Post editor, and member of The Cipher Brief, Brian Bonner advises incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to leverage America's position to negotiate an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. He commends the President-elect's signals of continued support for Ukraine and calls for increased European defense spending. Bonner suggests that with adequate U.S. support, Ukraine could make necessary territorial concessions to achieve peace, potentially earning the President a Nobel Peace Prize.  The Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli strikes kill at least two dozen people in Gaza, most women and children.  Israeli airstrikes in southern Gaza killed at least 24 people late Tuesday, nearly all of them women or children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry and hospital officials. The Israeli military said it targeted militants who had taken part in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.  But hospital officials said a strike killed five children sheltering in a tent.  More people died in strikes on tents, homes and a car.  Reuters Associated Press  

Hamas says hard no to hostage deal without permanent ceasefire.  Hamas insisted Tuesday that Israel must agree to a permanent end to the Gaza war and withdraw all troops before it releases the hostages.  Israel says the war won’t end until Hamas is dismantled, and all hostages are free.  Hamas official Osama Hamdan, at a news conference Tuesday in Algiers, dismissed President-elect Donald Trump’s renewed threat that there would be "hell to pay" if the hostages weren’t freed before the inauguration. Said Hamdan: "I think the U.S. president must make more disciplined and diplomatic statements."  Reuters

UAE discusses post-war Gaza government with U.S. and Israel.   The United Arab Emirates is considering taking part in a provisional administration of post-war Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority can take over, Reuters reported. The UAE is talking with Israel and the U.S. about the possibility that the UAE, the U.S. and other nations would temporarily oversee the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza.  The UAE is a close security partner of the U.S. and has diplomatic ties with Israel.  Reuters reported that Emirati officials suggested that private military contractors could be hired as a peacekeeping force in Gaza, but this idea would probably not be acceptable to Western officials.  Reuters 

Israel says foreign courts haven’t issued warrants for Israeli military reservists for war crimes.  Israel denied Tuesday that foreign courts had issued warrants for Israeli military reservists for alleged war crimes in Gaza. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for war crimes against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, and many Israelis fear others who have fought in the Gaza war will also be charged.  On Sunday, an Israeli reservist on holiday in Brazil left the country quickly after a Brazilian federal judge ordered police to investigate him for war crimes. A Belgium-based group said it had filed evidence of alleged war crimes with the ICC against 1,000 Israelis.  Foreign ministry director general Eden Bar Tal dismissed the idea that warrants were an issue for most Israelis traveling abroad.  "We believe it's a lot of propaganda activity in general,” Bar Tai said. “And it's sponsored by entities, a very low number of entities, that have direct connections to terrorist organizations.”  Reuters Jerusalem Post 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump blames Biden for provoking Russia's war by supporting Ukraine's NATO aspirations. During his Tuesday press conference, Donald Trump criticized President Joe Biden for provoking Russia’s war on Ukraine by backing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, stating, “Then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep. I could understand their feelings about that.” Trump’s team is reportedly exploring a plan to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years in exchange for Western arms and peacekeepers to oversee a ceasefire. Criticizing Biden’s foreign policy, including the Afghanistan withdrawal, Trump claimed these decisions emboldened Vladimir Putin to launch the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. He pledged to end the war swiftly but has not outlined concrete steps. Trump said he would delay negotiations with Putin until after the Jan. 20 inauguration but hoped to broker peace “long before six months.” Kyiv Independent Reuters RFE/RL

Biden administration set to announce ‘substantial’ final weapons package for Ukraine. The Biden administration will announce a final, substantial weapons package for Ukraine during Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Germany on Thursday. While the exact amount is unspecified, officials suggest it will not exhaust the remaining $4 billion in congressionally authorized funding, leaving resources for the incoming Trump administration. The package aims to bolster Ukraine amid its offensive in Russia’s Kursk region and continued Russian advances. Austin’s meeting at Ramstein Air Base marks his last with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which has collectively provided over $126 billion in military aid since 2022, including $66 billion from the U.S. Associated Press

As battles against Russia intensify, Ukraine’s manpower struggles worsen. Ukraine’s military is grappling with a severe manpower shortage as battles with Russian forces and North Korean elite troops intensify. Soldiers report that many highly motivated veterans have been killed, while new recruits lack training and morale. Commanders are accused of making poor decisions to appease superiors, further straining the situation. The shortage has forced Ukraine to retreat from key positions like Kurakhove and lose strategic assets. Kyiv’s forces have lost a key coal mine near Pokrovsk and could be about to lose Ukraine’s biggest lithium deposit in Shevchenkove. “The Kurakhove defense installations have been taken over just because we didn’t have anybody there,” one soldier said. The manpower crisis casts doubt on Ukraine’s renewed offensive in the Kursk region, where forces have made gains against Russian and North Korean troops, seizing villages near Sudzha. Al Jazeera

Ukrainian F-16 pilot sets record for shooting down missiles in one flight. A Ukrainian F-16 pilot set a world record by shooting down six Russian cruise missiles in one combat flight during a massive Russian attack on Dec. 13. After using all four air-to-air missiles, he destroyed two additional missiles using his aircraft cannon, an extremely risky maneuver. This marks the first time an F-16 pilot has destroyed six cruise missiles in a single mission. Colonel Yurii Ihnat praised the pilot's skill, highlighting the effectiveness of U.S. training despite Ukraine not receiving the most advanced F-16 models. Ukraine received its first F-16s in 2024, bolstered by allied support. RBC Ukraine

Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot supplying fuel to Engels-2 airbase, military confirms. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Engels, Saratov Oblast, reportedly supplying fuel to the Engels-2 airbase. The attack, confirmed by Ukraine's military on Wednesday, involved drone strikes and targeted the Kristal Plant. Saratov Governor Roman Busargin reported no injuries but described significant damage. The Engels-2 base houses bombers used in strikes on Ukraine. Ukrainian military intelligence noted the depot's destruction disrupts Russian aviation logistics and curtails attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets. Kyiv Independent

Russia ‘delusional’ about its ability to sustain Ukraine war, says Latvian foreign minister. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze emphasized in an interview that Ukraine’s fight for freedom and NATO membership is non-negotiable, stating, “For us, it's not about ‘for as long as it takes,’ but actually looking at Ukraine's victory, which is to be defined by Ukraine, not by others.” She called Russia’s belief in sustaining the war “delusional,” highlighting its crumbling economy and reliance on forced sacrifices. Braze praised Ukraine’s resilience and the solidarity of allies while urging continued military, political, and economic support. She stressed that Ukraine’s strength on the battlefield directly determines its position in potential negotiations for a secure and lasting peace. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky drops to 52% during 2024, poll shows. A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll revealed that 52% of Ukrainians trust President Volodymyr Zelensky, down 12 points from February 2024. Trust remains stronger in western (60%) and central (52%) regions than in southern (46%) and eastern (42%) regions, heavily affected by Russia’s war. Growing pessimism about the war persists, with 38% supporting territorial concessions for peace, up from 19% in 2023. Expectations of 2025 peace talks rise as Donald Trump commits to mediation. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 13 over the past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed two civilians and injured 13, authorities said on Wednesday. Overnight, 64 Shahed drones and dummy drones targeted Ukraine, with air defenses intercepting 41. In Kherson Oblast, two were killed and nine injured, while Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast saw three civilians injured. In Sumy Oblast, one civilian was injured, and a house was damaged. Kyiv Independent

Venezuela detains 3 Ukrainians, accuses them of 'terror' plot. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the detention of three Ukrainians, alongside two U.S. and two Colombian citizens, accusing them of plotting terrorist acts against Venezuela. Maduro provided no evidence for his claims, which coincide with his upcoming January 10 inauguration amid allegations of election fraud. Opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, recognized by the U.S. and other nations as president-elect, also plans to take an oath of office. Maduro’s administration, closely allied with Moscow, claims 125 "mercenaries" were detained in recent months. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has not commented on the arrests, which highlight Venezuela's tense political climate and ties to Russia. Kyiv Independent

For Many Returning Russian Veterans, a Long Road of Recovery Awaits. Russian veterans returning from Ukraine face severe challenges, with over 300,000 severely injured, many as amputees or with PTSD. Rehabilitation is limited, with brief stays at centers like Rus Sanitarium offering prosthetics and therapy but little consistent care. Societal stigma and poor psychological support exacerbate their struggles, leaving many unable to reintegrate. These challenges underscore deeper flaws within Russia’s system for supporting soldiers, which could undermine morale, recruitment, and public perception of the war. Additionally, some veterans contribute to rising crime rates, posing societal risks. Understanding their plight reveals the profound human cost of Russia’s war and its cascading effects. New York Times

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 9. Russian forces may leverage tactical gains in Toretsk and Pokrovsk to eliminate Ukrainian positions southwest of Toretsk. Russian forces likely cannot significantly threaten Kostyantynivka without reinforcements from other frontline sectors. Ukrainian forces struck the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade’s command post in Belaya, Kursk Oblast, on Tuesday.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Ukraine isn’t fighting a ‘forever war.’ The US shouldn’t forsake it. Martin Kuz argues that U.S. support for Ukraine is morally essential and contrasts sharply with the "forever wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq, where U.S. troops fought and died for unclear goals. He criticizes Trump’s incoming administration, particularly J.D. Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, and Pete Hegseth, for equating U.S. military aid to Ukraine with past misadventures. Kuz emphasizes that aiding Ukraine, a democratically resisting a fascist invasion, upholds Western ideals and protects global security. Abandoning Ukraine, he warns, would not end the war but lead to greater bloodshed and undermine America’s moral and strategic commitments. The HIll

Opinion: Trump is facing a catastrophic defeat. Robert Kagan argues that Donald Trump faces a strategic crisis in Ukraine, where his campaign promise to secure peace is clashing with Vladimir Putin’s uncompromising goals. Putin seeks Ukraine's total subjugation, rejecting partial agreements or negotiations. Kagan highlights that Ukraine’s survival depends on U.S. aid, but Trump’s suggested cuts could lead to a collapse within 12-18 months. Putin perceives victory as achievable. If Trump withdraws support, Kagan warns, it will embolden adversaries like China and North Korea, weaken global alliances, and mark a catastrophic defeat. The Atlantic 

Opinion: Putin begins 2025 confident of victory as the war of attrition takes toll on Ukraine. Mykola Bielieskov argues that Vladimir Putin begins 2025 confident of victory in Ukraine. Russia is capitalizing on Ukraine’s manpower shortages, leadership problems, and insufficient international support. Despite setbacks, Russia's gradual battlefield gains in 2024 reflect its ability to adapt tactically while outlasting Ukraine in a war of attrition. Ukraine faces record desertions and strained recruitment, with losses of seasoned soldiers weakening its defenses. Bielieskov stresses the urgent need for systematic training, improved leadership, and increased Western military aid to bolster Ukraine. Atlantic Council

Opinion: Russians Too See Putin’s Weaknesses. Walter Clemens examines growing dissent within Russia as critics draw parallels between Vladimir Putin’s regime and the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s in Syria. Retired Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov and others condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, citing its repercussions, including economic decline, demographic strain, and weakened alliances. Ivashov warns that Russia’s instability mirrors other overthrown regimes, asserting, “Ours could fall as suddenly as Assad’s.” Analyst Viktor Alksnis calls the Syrian intervention costly, while hawks like Maksim Kalashnikov criticize Putin for insufficient military commitment. Center for European Policy Analysis

Opinion: Putin’s peace plan is actually a call for Ukraine’s capitulation. Serhii Kuzan argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called peace plan is a veiled demand for Ukraine’s capitulation, aiming to isolate and disarm Kyiv. Putin’s terms, including territorial concessions, NATO neutrality, and demilitarization, are designed to leave Ukraine defenseless while preparing for future aggression. Historical appeasements of Russia have emboldened further conflicts and accepting these terms risks leaving millions vulnerable to Russian domination. Kuzan stresses the West must provide credible guarantees to deter further Russian aggression. Atlantic Council

AMERICAS

Trump won’t rule out military force to take Greenland and Panama Canal.   President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday refused to rule out using military force to take Greenland and the Panama Canal.  Asked if he would rule out economic or military force to gain control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, Trump said, “I’m not gonna commit to that. No. It might be that you’ll have to do something.”  “I can’t assure you — you’re talking about Panama and Greenland — no, I can’t assure you on either of those two,” Trump said. “But I can say this: We need them for economic security.” Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., landed in Greenland on Tuesday on a private visit.  With him were firebrand conservative activist Charlie Kirk and the elder Trump’s personnel director, Sergio Gor.  Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire for the U.S. to purchase Greenland, describing the Danish territory and world’s largest island as an “absolute necessity” for American security. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” he said Tuesday. “People really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to it, but if they do they should give it up because we need it for national security.” Trump has also previously demanded Panama restore ownership of the Canal to the U.S. The U.S. signed over control of the critical maritime trade route to Panama in 1977.  “The Panama Canal is vital to our country,” Trump said Tuesday. “It’s being operated by China. China! And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn’t give it to China.”    Politico EU Reuters Washington Post Washington Post Associated Press   Associated Press Reuters  

Why Greenland? Remote but resource-rich island occupies a key position in a warming world. Greenland, a remote yet geopolitically critical territory, is central to global climate, resource, and security dynamics. As the world’s largest island, it holds vast ice reserves, whose melting threatens to raise sea levels by 24 feet, disrupt ocean currents, and reshape global weather patterns. It’s rare earth minerals, oil, and natural gas are increasingly accessible due to warming, drawing U.S. interest amidst China's dominance in mineral supply. Greenland’s location, straddling the Arctic Circle between the U.S., Russia, and Europe, further amplifies its strategic value. Associated Press 

Why is Trump talking about changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico? President-elect Donald Trump proposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America," citing its "beautiful ring." The idea reflects his history of bold territorial claims, including calling Canada the "51st State" and urging Denmark to cede Greenland. The name change faces obstacles, requiring international agreement through the International Hydrographic Organization. Historical precedent shows such renaming efforts are contentious and rarely successful. The Gulf of Mexico has been named for over 400 years, originating from the Native American city of “Mexico.” This move echoes previous political and comedic calls to rename the Gulf, though none gained traction. The proposal also parallels global disputes over place names, such as the Sea of Japan and the Persian Gulf. Associated Press

ANALYSIS–Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Influence Stretching From Panama to Greenland. President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy vision involves dramatic territorial ambitions, including acquiring Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal through military or economic coercion. Trump views these moves as vital for U.S. security and economic dominance, reflecting a 21st-century revival of great power spheres of influence. His proposals—such as imposing tariffs on Canada or renegotiating Panama Canal control—prioritize unilateralism over alliances, drawing criticism from analysts and allies. While Trump’s rhetoric may serve as negotiating leverage, his disregard for norms and NATO commitments has alarmed observers, particularly his refusal to rule out using force against allies like Denmark for Greenland. His focus on the Arctic and Western Hemisphere counters perceived threats from China and Russia, with advisors exploring economic investments or expanded military footprints in Greenland and Panama. Though annexation of Canada or military action is improbable, Trump’s confrontational approach signals a departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy. Wall Street Journal Washington Post New York Times

How AI helped a Green Beret outline a plan to explode a Cybertruck in Las Vegas. Las Vegas police say that Matthew Livelsberger, the active-duty U.S. Army Green Beret who used a car bomb to detonate a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump International Hotel on New Year’s Day, used ChatGPT to gather publicly available information for planning the attack. This discovery has raised concerns about the role of AI in aiding harmful activities, with Sheriff Kevin McMahill saying that this could have been “the first incident on U.S. soil” in which ChatGPT has been “utilized to help an individual build a particular device to learn information.” Authorities did not disclose what answers AI gave Livelsberger to his searches about firearms, explosives, and how to purchase a cell phone without divulging personal info. Livelsberger, a decorated combat veteran reportedly struggling with PTSD, left a six-page manifesto describing his plans, political grievances, and struggles with mental health. He stated he wanted the blast to be public but claimed he did not intend to harm others. The explosion, caused by fireworks, gas tanks, and camping fuel, could have been significantly larger if fully executed. The incident is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack, though officials noted it may also be a tragic case of suicide. No additional suspects are being pursued. The use of AI in the event has prompted OpenAI to reaffirm its commitment to ensuring responsible use of its tools and to cooperate with law enforcement. CNN The Guardian Associated Press 

Kamala Harris to embark on tour of Asia, Mideast and Europe during final week in office. Vice President Kamala Harris plans to conclude her term with a global trip from January 13–17, with visits to Singapore, Bahrain, and Germany in order to address U.S. foreign policy priorities and engage with American troops stationed abroad. This trip highlights her commitment to U.S. global leadership and could signal her interest in maintaining an international role after leaving office, though there is speculation she may also pursue a gubernatorial run in California. In Singapore, Harris will visit Changi Naval Base and meet with leaders to discuss Indo-Pacific issues, including Beijing’s increasingly bold actions in the South China Sea. In Bahrain, she will visit the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters, which focuses on protecting regional security and addressing threats from Iran and Yemen's Houthis. Her final stop in Germany will include a visit to Spangdahlem Air Base. Harris has called engaging with U.S. service members one of her greatest privileges as vice president. This trip marks her 22nd country visit during her term and serves as her final opportunity to reinforce Washington’s foreign policy before Donald Trump takes office. Associated Press Reuters New York Post  

U.N. reports over 5,600 people were killed in Haiti in 2024 as violent gangs rage. Haiti faced a devastating surge in violence in 2024, with over 5,600 people killed, 2,200 injured, and nearly 1,500 kidnapped, according to reports by the U.N. Gang violence has left over 700,000 Haitians homeless, with many living in overcrowded, unsanitary shelters. High-profile incidents include a Christmas Eve attack that left a police officer and two journalists dead, and a brutal December massacre in Port-au-Prince that killed over 200 people, most of them elderly individuals. The violence is being fueled by impunity, corruption, and rampant gang control, with 85% of Port-au-Prince under gang dominance. Civilians, suspected gang members, and alleged associates have been killed, including 315 lynchings and 280 alleged executions by police. Gangs also control key roads, making movement dangerous and cutting off access to essential services. A U.N.-backed mission led by 400 Kenyan police officers, joined by personnel from other nations, has struggled to restore order, operating far below the anticipated 2,500 personnel. The situation is compounded by the suspension of commercial flights to Port-au-Prince due to safety concerns, leaving the country increasingly isolated. Amid the crisis, deportations to Haiti continue, with the U.S. deporting nearly 28,000 Haitians under President Biden and the Dominican Republic deporting over 250,000 last year. The U.N. has called for an end to deportations, citing Haiti’s acute insecurity and humanitarian crisis. Residents, many struggling with hunger, express fear and despair as they try to survive on minimal resources while the government fails to provide meaningful relief or safety. Associated Press Al Jazeera U.N. News  

2 sons of Mexican cartel leader ‘El Chapo’ are in plea negotiations with US, attorneys say.  Two sons of Mexican cartel leader "El Chapo," Ovidio and Joaquin Guzmán López, are negotiating plea deals with U.S. prosecutors over drug trafficking charges. Both have pleaded not guilty. Ovidio’s plea discussions began in October, while Joaquin's were recently confirmed. Their arrests in 2023, alongside cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, followed U.S. indictments accusing the Sinaloa cartel’s "Chapitos" faction of trafficking fentanyl. The arrests intensified cartel violence in Mexico. Court dates are set for February and March. Associated Press CBS

Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader reports abduction of son-in-law in Caracas. Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González, who claims victory in last year’s disputed presidential election against Nicolás Maduro, reported that his son-in-law, Rafael Tudares, was kidnapped in Caracas while taking González's grandchildren to school on Tuesday. González accused Maduro's regime of orchestrating the abduction as a political move, and the Unitary Platform coalition, which González represents, labeled the incident a "forced disappearance" and demanded Tudares' release, along with all political prisoners. The kidnapping comes amid heightened security in Caracas ahead of Maduro's swearing-in for a contested third term, which González and the opposition claim was illegitimate. Many international organizations, including the U.S., have recognized González as Venezuela's president-elect. González, who is in exile and traveling to rally international support, has met with U.S. President Joe Biden and other officials. He has vowed to return to Venezuela and take office but has not explained how he plans to confront Maduro, whose powerful government controls all state institutions. Meanwhile, opposition leader María Corina Machado called for mass protests, though increased security in Caracas has left the city on edge and largely deserted. Kidnappings and other forms of repression are being used by the authoritarian regime to suppress dissent and intimidate opposition figures and their families. Associated Press The Guardian Al Jazeera  

Venezuela arrests group of so-called 'mercenaries,' including two Americans. Venezuelan authorities have arrested seven foreigners, including two Americans, just days before the controversial inauguration of President Nicolás Maduro. In a state television broadcast, Maduro accused the detainees, including Colombians and Ukrainians, of being "mercenaries," who plotted terrorist acts against his government. He said that the two U.S. citizens were "very high level." Maduro provided no further details, but claimed the detainees would confess soon. The arrests come amidst heightened tensions following last year’s contested election, which the opposition claims was won by their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, in a landslide. The U.S. and other nations support Gonzalez Urrutia and have called for a peaceful return to democracy in Venezuela. Maduro has intensified repression in response to opposition protests aimed at blocking his return to power. Deutsche Welle Reuters 

Two Americans sue Venezuelan strongman Maduro for incarceration, alleged torture. Matthew Heath, a former U.S. Marine, and Osman Khan, a Florida man, have filed a lawsuit in Miami federal court against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and 17 others, accusing them of running a criminal enterprise that uses American citizens as bargaining tools. The lawsuit alleges they were subjected to torture, including waterboarding and electrocution, while being wrongfully detained on false charges. Both men were released in October 2022 as part of a prisoner swap. The suit seeks damages under the Anti-Terrorism Act, similar to previous cases in which Americans imprisoned in Venezuela won judgments against Maduro’s regime. However, collecting damages remains challenging due to the lack of traceable assets linked directly to Maduro and his aides in the U.S. The lawsuit also accuses Maduro of controlling the "Cartel of the Suns," a drug-smuggling operation allegedly involving top Venezuelan officials. The case highlights the ongoing legal battles that are targeting Maduro’s government for severe human rights abuses and wrongful detentions. Associated Press 

EUROPE

Trump Says NATO Nations Should Spend 5% of GDP on Defense. President-elect Donald Trump called for NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, more than doubling the current 2% target. “I think NATO should have 5%,” Trump said at his press conference on Tuesday, highlighting his role in pushing allies to meet the current threshold. No NATO member, including the U.S., spends 5%. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has signaled plans to increase the target to 3% of GDP. Germany’s defense committee chair, Marcus Faber, noted, “This new goal will be 3 rather than 5 percent.” Bloomberg

Greenland leader to meet Danish king amid Trump bid to take over territory. Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede is set to meet Denmark’s King Frederik in Copenhagen on Wednesday following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland. Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, suggested potential military or economic measures to pursue this goal, while his son, Donald Trump Jr., privately visited the resource-rich island. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory for 600 years with a population of 57,000, controls most of its domestic affairs. Egede has reaffirmed that the island is not for sale and has emphasized Greenland’s push for independence. Tensions with Denmark persist over allegations of colonial mistreatment. Reuters

EU will defend borders, says French minister in response to Trump’s Greenland threats. France’s foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Wednesday that the European Union would not allow any country to “attack its sovereign borders”, after Donald Trump refused to rule out taking Greenland by force. Asked about the prospect of the US invading the Danish territory, Barrot told the France Inter radio station: “There is obviously no question of the European Union letting other nations in the world, whoever they are, and I would even say starting with Russia, attack its sovereign borders. We are a strong continent; we need to strengthen ourselves further.” He added that he did not expect Trump to invade Greenland but added that Europe needed to “wake up” to a more insecure world. Financial Times

NATO sends a fleet to guard Baltic Sea cables. After recent sabotage incidents, NATO will deploy around 10 ships to guard critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including energy and data cables. The ships, positioned by week’s end, will remain at sea until April. Finland is investigating the Russia-linked oil tanker Eagle S for damaging the Finland-Estonia power cable. Estonia has launched naval operations to protect the Estlink-2 cable. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte vowed to strengthen Baltic Sea defenses, while the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force plans enhanced ship traffic monitoring using AI. The disruptions also included broken cables between Finland, Germany, and Sweden. Politico EU

Finland recovers anchor in Baltic Sea cables investigation. Finnish investigators have recovered the missing anchor from the tanker Eagle S, suspected of damaging power and telecom cables in the Gulf of Finland on Dec. 25. The anchor, retrieved with help from the Swedish Navy, aligns with drag marks along the seabed traced to the ship’s route. The Eagle S, linked to Russia's sanctions-evading "shadow fleet," is detained near Porvoo, with eight crew members under travel bans for suspected sabotage. Finland's Deputy Prosecutor General stated the crew, and shipowners may face criminal charges. After multiple sabotage incidents, NATO has pledged increased presence amid heightened Baltic Sea security concerns. Reuters Ukrainska Pravda 

Musk Takes Slash-and-Burn Style to Europe After Bolstering Trump. Elon Musk, fresh from supporting Donald Trump's reelection, is now influencing European politics, sparking alarm across the continent. Musk has openly backed far-right parties like Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), endorsed divisive figures such as British far-right activist Tommy Robinson, and criticized leaders like UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. His rhetoric includes conspiracy theories and personal attacks, leveraging his social platform, X, to amplify far-right voices. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, warn of the risks Musk's unchecked influence poses to democratic institutions. Scholz has downplayed Musk’s relevance, while Starmer condemned his misinformation. The EU is investigating X for potential election manipulation under the Digital Services Act. Musk’s actions risk alienating Tesla’s European market, where sales have dropped. Critics argue his interventions reflect broader populist ambitions, while Musk’s allies claim Europe’s political rightward shift aligns with his strategies. Bloomberg Associated Press

Far-right leader pledges to ‘govern Austria honestly’ and makes demands of potential partner. Austrian far-right leader Herbert Kickl, tasked with forming a government, pledged to "govern Austria honestly" while preparing for coalition talks with the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which previously criticized him. Kickl’s Freedom Party, which won 28.8% in September elections, is euroskeptic, anti-immigration, and Russia-friendly. If talks fail, Kickl said he is ready for new elections. As mainstream rivals struggle, the Freedom Party's support has surged to over 35% in recent polls. This could lead to Austria’s first far-right-led government since World War II. Outgoing Chancellor Karl Nehammer will step down on Friday. Associated Press  

US sanctions key member of Viktor Orbán’s inner circle for corruption. The U.S. Treasury on Tuesday sanctioned Antal Rogán, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s cabinet chief, for orchestrating systemic corruption that enriched government-aligned businesspeople and cronies. Described as a "kleptocratic ecosystem," Rogán's actions led to U.S. asset freezes and bans on business dealings. Ambassador David Pressman labeled Rogán a “primary architect” of corruption, reflecting broader concerns about Hungary’s democratic backsliding and ties to Russia and China. Hungary’s government dismissed the sanctions as “personal revenge” by the Biden administration, anticipating improved U.S.-Hungarian relations under President-elect Donald Trump, a supporter of Orbán. Rogán is the only Hungarian official on the U.S. sanctions list. Politico EU Associated Press Euronews U.S. Department of the Treasury The Guardian   

EU blasts Russia for weaponizing gas in Moldova. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Tuesday accused Russia of using gas as a weapon in a "hybrid war" against Moldova. In a post on X, Kallas reaffirmed the EU’s “unwavering solidarity” with Moldova, which faces disrupted gas supplies to its breakaway Transnistria region. The stoppage began January 1 after Kyiv refused to extend a gas transit deal with Moscow, while Russia blames unpaid Moldovan debts. Moldova disputes the debt and accuses Russia of stoking the crisis to destabilize the government and sway upcoming elections toward pro-Russian forces. Over 51,000 households in Transnistria are without heating, intensifying regional instability. Al Jazeera

Azerbaijan's President Aliyev calls Armenia 'fascist state, threat to region.'Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called Armenia a "fascist state" on Tuesday, accusing it of harboring a "fascist ideology" for 30 years and labeling it a "threat to the region." In an interview, Aliyev warned, "Fascism must be destroyed. It will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us. We have no other choice." He urged countries like France to cease arms supplies to Armenia. Tensions remain high following Azerbaijan's 2023 seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, which prompted nearly all Armenians to flee. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned of potential Azerbaijani aggression amid unresolved disputes. Kyiv Independent

Romanians still back pro-Russian presidential candidate. Romania's pro-Vladimir Putin far-right candidate Călin Georgescu remains the leading choice for president, polling over 40%, despite allegations of Russian interference in his campaign. The constitutional court annulled the first-round vote, citing Moscow's likely involvement, but Georgescu denies any ties to Russia and has appealed to the European Court of Human Rights. Pro-EU mayor Nicușor Dan, polling third, described Georgescu as a major threat to Romanian democracy. Meanwhile, Elena Lasconi, another pro-EU candidate, criticized the lack of action against election meddling. The rerun's date remains undecided, as political uncertainty looms over Romania's government and its democratic stability. Financial Times

France marks 10 years since the deadly Charlie Hebdo attack. France marked the 10th anniversary of the Charlie Hebdo attack on January 7, 2025, with tributes led by President Emmanuel Macron and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo. The 2015 assault by two Islamist gunmen killed 12, including prominent cartoonists, and sparked global solidarity under the slogan "Je Suis Charlie." Memorials included a wreath-laying ceremony at the newspaper's former office and a moment of silence. Charlie Hebdo released a provocative anniversary edition titled "Indestructible," defending satire as essential to freedom. A survey showed 76% of French people believe in the right to caricature, though younger generations express more reservations. The attack, motivated by the paper's depictions of the Prophet Mohammed, initiated a wave of extremist violence across Europe. The commemorations highlighted France’s enduring commitment to free expression amid debates about satire's limits. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau noted evolving threats, emphasizing vigilance against radicalization fueled by social media. Associated Press The Guardian  The Independent Reuters France 24  

Opinion: The Putinization of Central Europe. Herbert Kickl, leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), is poised to become chancellor after centrist efforts to block his rise failed. Known for anti-asylum rhetoric and pro-Russian sympathies, Kickl's potential leadership reflects a broader pattern of central European leaders aligning with Vladimir Putin's authoritarian stance, as seen in Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. While Austria’s small size limits its geopolitical impact, Kickl’s anti-Brussels and anti-NATO stance threatens European unity at a critical time. The FPÖ’s alignment with Putin’s United Russia underscores concerns about the growing influence of nationalist, Eurosceptic forces across the region. The Economist

THE MIDDLE EAST

Italian journalist Sala freed from Iran prison and flying home. Italian journalist Cecilia Sala, 29, has been released from Iran's Evin Prison and is en route to Italy, according to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's office. Sala, a correspondent for Il Foglio and Chora Media, was detained in Tehran on December 19, 2024, despite holding a valid journalist visa. Her arrest occurred shortly after Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini was apprehended in Milan on a U.S. warrant, accused of supplying drone parts linked to a 2024 attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan. While Iran has denied involvement in the attack, Sala's detention raised concerns about potential retaliatory actions. The Italian government engaged in intensive diplomatic and intelligence efforts to secure her release, which is seen as a diplomatic success for Meloni's administration. Prime Minister Meloni is expected to personally welcome Sala upon her arrival in Rome.  Reuters

Syria’s main airport receives first international flights since rebels toppled al-Assad regime. Syria’s main airport resumed international flights for the first time since the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad's government, marking a step toward normalcy under the new leadership. Flights from Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE arrived or departed Damascus on Tuesday. Many of the passengers who arrived were Syrian nationals, finally given the opportunity to come home for the first time in more than ten years. One Royal Jordanian Airlines plane conducted a test flight with a unit of specialists to determine the technical condition of the airport before relaunching regular flights. Syria’s new Islamist-led administration, run by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has pledged to draft an inclusive constitution, restore government functions, and ensure the country poses no threat to its neighbors. However, the nation remains under strict international sanctions due to HTS's ties to Al Qaeda, despite the fact that the group severed that affiliation years ago. Western leaders are cautiously optimistic, urging an inclusive political transition while maintaining most sanctions. The Biden administration eased some humanitarian aid restrictions but kept broader sanctions in place. Syria’s new administration will face challenges in gaining international trust and balancing internal stability while attempting to rebuild the war-torn state, and ease tensions with wary regional and Western powers. New York Times Associated Press NPR Al Jazeera  

Germany pressuring EU to ease sanctions on Syria. Germany is reportedly guiding talks within the European Union on easing sanctions on Syria following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad in December. Berlin’s move aims to provide relief to the Syrian population, focusing on specific sectors, though unanimous EU approval is required. Germany's proposal, which was first shared with Brussels before Christmas, suggests the gradual easing of restrictions in exchange for progress on social issues, including minority and women’s rights and commitments to non-proliferation of weapons. The U.S. recently issued a six-month sanctions exemption for certain transactions to facilitate humanitarian aid and address Syria’s energy shortages. While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group now leading Syria's interim government, has renounced ties with Al Qaeda, it remains designated as a terrorist entity by the U.S. and U.N., complicating international engagement. During a visit to Syria last week, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressed the need for an inclusive transition involving all Syrian groups, including women and Kurds, if Damascus seeks European support. Discussions within the bloc may consider temporary easing of sanctions, allowing for reversibility, if necessary, as part of a cautious approach to aiding the nation’s recovery. Financial Times Reuters Deutsche Welle Barron's   

Inside Bashar Assad’s detention centers, where ‘death was the least bad thing’. Following Bashar Assad’s fall, Syria’s notorious detention system has been exposed, revealing systematic torture, mass executions, and brutal repression across over 100 prisons. Former detainees recount harrowing experiences, from electric shocks and beatings to cramped cells where survival was uncertain. Rights groups estimate at least 150,000 people disappeared during Assad’s rule, with many killed under inhumane conditions. Mass graves are being located, and extensive documentation of crimes is emerging. New authorities and international bodies work to gather evidence for future prosecutions, aiming to hold Assad’s regime accountable for its atrocities. Associated Press

Saudi Arabia pressuring Florida man to give up US citizenship over critical tweets, family says. Saudi Arabia has pressured Saad Almadi, a 74-year-old dual Saudi American citizen, to renounce his U.S. citizenship after detaining him over critical tweets about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Almadi, sentenced to 19 years for terrorism-related charges before release, remains under an exit ban in Saudi Arabia. Similar cases of forced renunciations against dual nationals have emerged, highlighting Saudi Arabia’s attempts to silence dissent. Almadi’s son accuses the U.S. of insufficient advocacy. The case underscores the challenges of balancing human rights concerns with strategic alliances as Saudi-U.S. relations strengthen under President-elect Donald Trump. Associated Press  

ASIA & OCEANIA

Trump may not back South Korean nuclearization, says former Pentagon official. Ex-Pentagon official and political scientist Vipin Narang on Tuesday expressed skepticism that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would support South Korea's pursuit of independent nuclear weapons, stressing that Seoul is "better off" relying on America's nuclear umbrella. Narang noted that both Trump and President Joe Biden view nuclear proliferation as a global threat, making it unlikely for the White House to endorse nuclearization. Narang praised the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), a U.S.-South Korea alliance mechanism established under Biden, as a key tool for nuclear deterrence, and predicted that it would continue under Trump due to its benefits for both nations. The NCG integrates South Korea's advanced conventional military assets with Washington’s nuclear operations, requiring the South to take on greater alliance responsibilities. He cautioned against Seoul pursuing its own nuclear weapons, noting the risks of a "window of vulnerability" during development, which could leave the country exposed to potential aggression from North Korea. Narang raised concerns about domestic political instability in South Korea, including the recent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, and voiced worries over Pyongyang 's rapidly advancing nuclear program. Yonhap News Agency 

South Korean police claim to be tracking Yoon's location amid rumors that he fled. South Korean police confirmed that they are tracking President Yoon Suk Yeol's location amidst rumors that he may have fled his residence following his impeachment and the threat of arrest over his brief attempt to impose martial law last month. Police stated that Yoon has been staying at his official residence in central Seoul’s affluent Hannam-dong neighborhood since his impeachment on December 14, though his exact current location remains undisclosed. The rumors of his flight were fueled by comments from Oh Dong-woon, chief of the Corruption Investigation Office, who told lawmakers he had no confirmation of Yoon's whereabouts. Opposition lawmaker Rep. Ahn Gyu-back claimed to have received a tip that Yoon had left the residence and was hiding elsewhere, with police reportedly making a similar assessment. Yoon was last confirmed to be at home early this week and was there during a standoff last Friday when authorities attempted to execute an arrest warrant. Reports indicate that Yoon has turned the home into a veritable fortress, complete with locked gates, barbed wire, and a blockade of buses. Yonhap News Agency France 24  

South Korean court gives anti-corruption agency new arrest warrant for embattled President Yoon. South Korea’s anti-corruption agency has obtained a new court warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, after an hours-long attempt last week was blocked by his presidential security service. Yoon is facing allegations of rebellion over his brief martial law declaration on December 3, and the agency, along with police, is strategizing ways to execute the warrant, which is likely valid for around 7–10 days. Last week, a previous warrant expired following a fruitless standoff at Yoon’s residence involving 150 investigators and police. The agency is now preparing for a more forceful attempt, one that could potentially involve the arrest of security staff obstructing the operation. Police are considering options, including deploying SWAT teams, though these risks escalating tensions with armed presidential security forces. Yoon’s security staff have fortified his residence with barbed wire and resisted police summonses for questioning over their role in obstructing the detention attempt. His lawyers argue that the detention warrants are invalid and have filed complaints against anti-corruption and police officials, claiming the detention attempts were illegal and lacked proper authority. The agency continues to push for compliance from the presidential security service to enforce the warrant. Associated Press Bloomberg CNN France 24  

South Korean, Canadian military chiefs discuss cooperation expansion. South Korea's top military officer, Adm. Kim Myung-soo, and Canada's Gen. Jennie Carignan conducted a video call on Wednesday to discuss expanding military cooperation for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region. They assessed the region's security situation, with Kim highlighting the peninsula's stability and seeking Canada's support for closer military ties. Carignan emphasized global concerns over North Korea's growing military alignment with Russia and stressed the importance of South Korea-Canada military cooperation amid rising geopolitical uncertainties. This meeting follows their initial video talks in August 2024. Yonhap News Agency 

Indonesia, Japan to resume delayed discussions on transfer of defense gear. The Indonesian and Japanese governments have decided to relaunch stalled negotiations on the joint development of naval vessels and other defense equipment, including technology transfers. Japanese Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani and his Indonesian counterpart, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, discussed strengthening their defense partnership during Nakatani's visit to Jakarta on Tuesday. Both sides expressed interest in exploring joint military equipment projects, particularly focusing on naval ships. Japan's proposal involves the development of frigates based on its Monogami class design, which previously interested Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. Negotiations on this initiative had stalled under former President Joko Widodo due to Indonesia's financial focus on relocating its capital. Japan has also proposed similar partnerships with Australia and Germany. The talks align with Subianto's priority to bolster Indonesia's military capabilities through the acquisition of submarines, frigates, and fighter jets, and by expanding international defense cooperation. Nakatani's visit aims to deepen engagement with Indonesia, a key player in Southeast Asia, and prepare for a future meeting between Subianto and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Associated Press NHK Kyodo News  

19 insurgents, 3 Pakistani troops killed in separate raids in country’s volatile northwest. The Pakistani military said that its security forces killed 19 insurgents and lost three soldiers in three separate raids on militant hideouts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, near the Afghan border. Sixteen insurgents were killed in operations in Peshawar and Mohmand districts, while three were killed in Karak. President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif commended the troops for their efforts and paid tribute to the soldiers who lost their lives. Pakistan has intensified intelligence-based operations against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a group closely allied with the Afghan Taliban, which has grown more assertive since the latter's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. Associated Press VOA 

AFRICA

U.S. accuses Sudan’s paramilitary forces of committing genocide. The U.S. has accused Sudan's paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and its proxies of committing genocide during the ongoing civil war in Sudan, particularly in the western region of Darfur. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined atrocities carried out in the devastating conflict, including ethnically targeted killings, rape, and denial of aid to civilians, primarily targeting the non-Arab Masalit ethnic group. Blinken alleged that the RSF, formerly linked to Sudan’s Janjaweed militias, have “targeted fleeing civilians,” killed “innocent people escaping conflict,” and “systematically murdered men and boys — even infants — on an ethnic basis.” He also accused the paramilitary, which has been accused of ethnic cleansing since the war erupted in April 2023, of “other forms of brutal sexual violence” against women and girls. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, also known as Hemedti, and seven UAE-based companies involved in trading gold and weapons for the RSF. These measures aim to restrict Hamdan’s activities and finances. The UAE has been identified as a key sponsor of the RSF, providing a ceaseless flow of weapons and financial support, though it staunchly denies all allegations. Sudan’s war has caused catastrophic consequences, including tens of thousands of deaths, the displacement of over 11 million people, famine, and severe human rights violations. Critics have noted that Washington acted too slowly, despite the gravity of the crisis. Both the RSF and Sudan's military are held responsible for the violence, though the genocide determination specifically targets RSF actions in Darfur. The U.S. calls for a ceasefire and a civilian-led political transition to end the conflict. New York Times Washington Post Associated Press CNN 

Guineans protesting junta’s failure to return to democracy flood the capital’s streets. Guinean civil society and opposition groups have come out in force to protest the ruling junta’s failure to meet its deadline to begin a democratic transition, prompting a lockdown in parts of the capital, Conakry. The junta, led by Col. Mamadi Doumbouya since 2021, missed the January 1, 2025, target to launch a return to civilian rule, sparking fierce criticism and unrest. Opposition leader Aliou Bah, who remains in the country despite pressure on dissenters, was recently jailed for two years for "insulting" the junta leader. In a New Year’s address, Doumbouya promised a constitutional referendum as a step toward democracy but gave no timeline, which activists and opposition groups dismissed as an attempt to extend military rule. Protests have resulted in at least one fatality and hundreds of arrests. On Monday, the U.S. called for clear steps, including a constitutional referendum and credible elections, and urged the junta to involve civil society and political parties in the process. Concerns persist about the credibility of future elections. The junta has dissolved over 50 political parties, and has also cracked down on independent media, restricting information access and arresting journalists. Associated Press Euronews 

Senegal and Chad assert that dismissal of French soldiers was their sovereign decision. The leaders of Senegal and Chad have dismissed French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks suggesting that the decision to oust French troops from their countries was coordinated with Paris. In recent weeks, Senegal, Chad, and Ivory Coast have all announced the departure of French soldiers as part of their sovereign decisions. Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko stressed that the decision was entirely independent and asserted France’s lack of legitimacy in ensuring African security. Similarly, Chad’s Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah criticized Macron’s comments as disrespectful, stating that France's 60-year presence prioritized its own strategic interests over Chad's development. Macron had proposed a reduced French military presence in Africa, framing it as a "new security partnership" based on African countries' needs. However, critics argue that France’s troop deployments have been more about retaining influence and protecting favorable regimes. France currently has troops stationed in several African countries, but its military presence is increasingly being scaled back amidst growing pushback from African nations. Associated Press RFI    

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Elon Musk’s Political Influence Wears Down Global Resistance to Starlink. Elon Musk's growing influence is reshaping global policies toward SpaceX's Starlink. The satellite internet provider now operates in over 100 countries, serving 4 million users, as governments ease regulations previously restricting its entry. In South Africa, Musk is negotiating with President Cyril Ramaphosa to bypass Black ownership rules in exchange for investments, highlighting Starlink’s ability to pressure regulators. Countries like Argentina and Indonesia have also adjusted policies to welcome Musk's ventures, while demand soars in underserved regions such as rural Kenya. Despite concerns over privacy and Musk's political connections, including his advisory role to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Starlink’s affordable, high-speed internet appeals to consumers tired of unreliable local providers. Rival firms like OneWeb struggle to compete with SpaceX's extensive satellite network. However, critics warn of security risks, and some governments, like Taiwan, remain wary due to Musk's ties to China. Starlink’s global dominance continues to expand alongside Musk's political and economic clout. Bloomberg

The fight over robots threatening American jobs. The growing use of robotics and automation is fueling disputes across U.S. industries, with labor unions resisting job displacement while employers advocate for efficiency. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is at the forefront, opposing semi-automated cranes at U.S. ports that they say threaten livelihoods. Despite promises of increased productivity, automation has previously led to job losses, intensifying union concerns. Across sectors like retail, culinary, and logistics, unions are negotiating contracts to safeguard workers, securing severance packages, training, and advance notice of technological changes. Meanwhile, automation investment is surging, driven by labor shortages, high wages, and advancements in AI and robotics. Companies like Tesla and Amazon have introduced robots for tasks once considered human-exclusive. Economists remain divided on whether widespread job losses will occur, but concerns persist about increased inequality and blue-collar job displacement. Workers like Harold Daggett view automation as an existential threat, signaling that labor’s fight against robotics is far from over.Financial Times

China rejects Pentagon listing of tech firms, predicts move will ‘backfire’.   A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson has assailed the Pentagon’s decision to place five Chinese companies on a list of entities supporting the Chinese military.  Spokesperson Guo Jiakun called on the U.S. to “immediately correct its wrongdoing” in adding the tech firms, which include social media giant Tencent and CATL, the world’s largest battery maker.  The listing includes entities that the Pentagon regards as threats to national security for their defense-related work.  The spokesperson accused the U.S. of “making discriminatory lists in various names and going after Chinese companies to contain China’s high-quality development.”  On Monday, in addition to Tencent and CATL, the Pentagon added ChangXin Memory Technologies, Quectel Wireless, and drone-maker Autel Robotics to its “military companies” list that totals 134 entities, including 57 firms and subsidiaries.  The Pentagon list has no legal weight but impacts the reputations of listed firms and could lead to formal Treasury sanctions.  Bloomberg reported that the share values of Tencent and CATL fell more than 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively on the Hong Kong stock exchange.  For Tencent, its was the largest drop since October.  China’s Washington embassy released a statement saying the blacklist will “undermine the confidence of foreign companies in investing and operating in the United States and damage the interests of American companies and investors, which will eventually backfire”.  A Tencent representative described its inclusion on the list as “clearly a mistake,” adding that “we are not a military company or supplier.”  South China Morning Post   SCMP   Bloomberg   Wall Street Journal   Washington Post

CISA confirms Treasury sole federal agency targeted in recent China-backed hacking operation.  The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has announced that the Treasury Department was the only federal agency impacted by a cyberattack carried out by Chinese state-backed hackers.  CISA also reported that it is working with Treasury and BeyondTrust, a third-party software vendor, to gain additional insights into the breach.  BeyondTrust on December 8 notified Treasury that a system breach allowed intruders to obtain a security key, allowing remote access to workstations containing classified documents.  The targeting of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) by the threat actors reportedly stemmed from China’s desire to identify Chinese entities that may be subject to U.S. sanctions.  OFAC last week issued sanctions against a leading Chinese cybersecurity firm for assisting Beijing’s Volt Typhoon hacking campaign against U.S. critical infrastructure.  The Record

Treasury’ s Yellin expresses ‘serious concern’ in talks with Chinese official over computer hack.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in a virtual conversation with Chinese Vice Premier He LIfeng, conveyed her “serious concern” tied to China’s “malicious cyber activity” in the aftermath of the most recent Beijing-linked system breach of Treasury Department networks, which compromised 100 Treasury workstations. Yellen told He that China’s continued support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would have “significant” negative consequences.  She also mentioned China’s industrial policy that promotes overcapacity, an approach that Yellen said harms U.S. workers and companies.  He is China’s leading representative on U.S.-China economic and trade affairs.  Yellen’s contact with the Chinese official is likely to be her final direct communication with Beijing of the Biden administration.  A Treasury department representative described the conversation as candid, in-depth and constructive.  Bloomberg   Reuters

House China committee co-chair demands Treasury briefing on network breach.  Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, the ranking member of the House select committee on China, has sent a letter to Treasury secretary Janet Yellin calling for a Treasury briefing on the breach of department computer networks by China.  Krishnamoorthi asked for a meeting by January 15 to discuss the system compromise of computers linked to the department’s sanctions office.  The congressman wrote that “even unclassified information could reveal a great deal about forthcoming Treasury actions that utilize our nation’s economic toolkit.”  He pointed to the potential “devastating” impact on U.S. interests of continued Chinese cyberattacks.  Krishnamoorthi noted that “it is imperative that Treasury redouble its efforts to protect its data and systems to prevent any future incidents.”  Semafor   Rep. Krishnamoorthi

Nvidia unveils ‘personal AI supercomputer,’ multiverse simulation platform at CES.  Nvidia has unveiled Project Digits, which it describes as a “personal AI supercomputer” at the CES 2025 exhibition in Las Vegas.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the new device is “a cloud computing platform that sits on your desk … It’s even a workstation, if you like it to be.”  Potential users include researchers, data scientists, and students, who will benefit from the computer’s Nvidia GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip for use in prototyping, refining, and running AI models.  Nvidia says that two Project Digits machines can be linked together to run up to 405-billion-parameter models, operate as a standalone workstation, or be connected to a primary Windows or Mac PC.  The Project Digits device will be available starting in May for about $3,000.  Huang commented that “AI will be mainstream in every application for every industry.  With Project Digits, the Grace Blackwell Superchip comes to millions of developers.”  Users also will have access to Nvidia’s AI software library, which includes development kits, orchestration tools, and pre-trained models.  Also at the CES event, Nvidia described a new "multiverse simulation" platform, dubbed “Cosmos,” that can generate massive amounts of data to train advanced AI-powered, self-learning robots.  The Cosmos tool suite enables researchers to create "world foundation models," neural networks that simulate real-world environments and physics to predict realistic outcomes.  TechCrunch TheVerge VentureBeat Bloomberg  Cybernews 

Meta shifts content oversight from fact-checkers to ‘community notes’ model.  Meta has announced an end to its fact-checking program that was used to curtail misinformation circulating on the company’s social media apps, Facebook, Instagram, and Threads.  Fact checkers from news organizations and other outside groups will be replaced by user posts that flag false or misleading information.  Meta’s new global policy chief, Joel Kaplan, explained in a statement that the company is seeking to “undo the mission creep that has made our rules too restrictive and too prone to over-enforcement.”   Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the new process is similar to the protocol used by X, Community Notes.  Zuckerberg commented in a video post that “it’s time to get back to our roots around free expression.”   Zuckerberg acknowledged that Meta platforms probably will circulate increased “bad stuff,” but countered that “we’ll also reduce the number of innocent people’s posts and accounts that we accidentally take down.”  Meta’s new policy includes removing restrictions on content related to immigration and gender identity.  The company will move its content review operations from California to Texas, as Zuckerberg explained, to “help remove the concern that biased employees are overly censoring content.”  New York Times   Wall Street Journal   Cybernews   Reuters

U.N. aviation agency 'actively investigating' claimed breach of personnel data.  A U.N. aviation agency is investigating a potential data breach of its network following a cybercriminal claim that it has compromised documents of agency personnel.  The U.N. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said the possible system intrusion was “linked to a threat actor known for targeting international organizations.”  A group identified as Natohub posted to the BreachForums 2 hacking forum that it compromised 42,000 ICAO documents that contained personal information.   Last month the Natohub account said it had accessed personal data of 14,000 U.N. delegates.  The group claims the ICAO information includes full names, physical and email addresses, and education and employment details.  The ICAO issued a statement that "at this early stage of our investigation, we cannot provide additional details about the incident or confirm specific claims about the data potentially involved.”  The Record   Reuters   BleepingComputer

Microsoft CEO announces $3 billion investment in Indian cloud, AI initiatives.  Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced on Tuesday that the company will invest $3 billion in cloud computing and AI capabilities in India over the next two years.  The investment also promotes skill-building in AI, according to a Microsoft spokesperson, who added that the outlay is in addition to the company's recently announced plan to invest $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025.  India has one of the world’s largest AI talent pools and hosts technology services providers like Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys.  Nadella made the announcement at an event in event in Bengaluru, noting that the investment is Microsoft’s single largest expansion in India to date.  The CEO commented that the Indian tech community’s contribution to Microsoft already includes AI projects on GitHub Copilot.  Sadella noted, "India is the second largest (developer community on GitHub) after the United States.  In fact, it's projected to be the largest in 2028.”  Microsoft already has three data-center clusters operating in India, with a fourth cluster under development.  The company has more than 23,000 employees across the country.  Bloomberg   Reuters   Wall Street Journal

AI startup venture capital investments reaches record high in 2024.  Nearly $100 billion poured into AI startups from venture capitalists in 2024, a record amount benefiting firms like xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic.  AI is taking an increasing share of all startup investment, with half of the $209 billion destined for U.S. startups earmarked for AI companies.  According to Pitchbook data, while trends indicate funding is pouring into AI startups, “many plain-vanilla startups in formerly hot sectors like enterprise software” are struggling to raise funding.  James Cross, managing director at Franklin Venture Partners, cautioned that "the AI/LLM companies did enjoy a historically rich funding environment. Most raised multiple rounds at exponentially higher valuations last year. They will need to smash very significant business milestones this year to continue enjoying unlimited access to infinity capital." According to sources, the closely watched metric of IPO’s and startup acquisitions brought in $149.2 billion in 2024, almost $30 billion more than 2023.  By contrast, startup funding in Europe declined to $61.6 billion in 2024, compared with $66.7 billion in 2023.  The business news platform Crunchbase provided a list of the largest AI startup funding deals, available here.  Bloomberg   Reuters  

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief