Report for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Waves of Ukrainian drones target Russian power and oil facilities

Federal judge delays Trump’s federal spending freeze

Europe’s leaders plot to stop Trump from taking Greenland

Iran’s alarming nuclear dash will soon test US

Trump describes DeepSeek AI challenge as ‘wake-up call’ for U.S. tech sector 

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How is War Fought in the Gray Zone?  American institutions and its dominant role in the world are under attack, predominantly in the gray zone, writes Beth Sanner, former Deputy Director for National Intelligence at ODNI and daily briefer to the president during the Trump Administration. Start fighting back, she says, by exposing gray-zone activities as a coordinated campaign by our adversaries.  Name and shame such activity.  Global publicity about bad behavior can erode the willingness of other countries to work with offending states and curb the most dangerous activity.  Practice deterrence by denial. Harden systems so much that attacks aren’t possible or worth the effort. Go further. Embrace deterrence by punishment. Make clear the consequences adversaries will face if they take hostile measures.  Sanner has much more to say, bluntly and unflinchingly, here.  The Cipher Brief 

The Case for Peace Through Strength – and Diplomacy.  President Donald Trump, in his inaugural address, said history will judge his administration by “the wars we never get into.” Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, former CIA director of East Asia Operations and Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea, believes Trump is being presented with rare opportunities to make peace by promoting American-style approaches to solving problems.  Democracy isn’t selling itself.  It needs help.  “To succeed,” he writes, “we must clearly convey our story and values.”  The Cipher Brief 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Putin says talks with Ukraine are possible, but not with Zelensky. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine are possible but excluded President Volodymyr Zelensky, labeling him "illegitimate" due to his extended term under martial law. Putin claimed the war could end in two months if Western support to Ukraine ceases. Zelensky accused Putin of fearing negotiations and prolonging the war. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured both sides for peace since taking office, threatening tougher sanctions on Russia and noting Zelensky’s willingness to make a deal. Kyiv warned against being sidelined in U.S.-Russia talks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military bloggers also noted Russian advances near Chasiv Yar. Amid setbacks, Ukraine dismissed a deputy defense minister for failing to supply ammunition timely, as its army remains outgunned along a vast 1,000-kilometer front line. France 24 Reuters

Top EU, US Diplomats Discuss Pressing Russia Over War in Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finally spoke with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Tuesday after skipping an EU foreign ministers’ meeting, raising concerns about the Trump administration sidelining Brussels. Kallas said they discussed Russia’s war on Ukraine, Iran, and China. An EU official stated that both sides agreed to maintain maximum pressure on Russia in pursuit of a just peace. While she expressed hope of meeting Rubio soon, no date was set. The EU worries Washington may favor direct ties with national leaders over bloc-wide engagement. Bloomberg Politico EU

Zelensky says territorial integrity is what every country ‘must respect.’ In a recent interview on Fox News aired on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the universal principle that every nation's territorial integrity must be respected. Zelensky underscored the importance of international support in upholding this fundamental right. He also addressed former President Donald Trump's initiatives to resolve the conflict, expressing appreciation for efforts contributing to peace while reiterating that any resolution must honor Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial boundaries. "We want him (Trump) to be on the side of justice, on the side of Ukraine," Zelensky said. "Putin is not afraid of Europe." Zelensky called upon the global community to stand firm against aggression, highlighting that defending one nation's borders is a precedent for protecting all nations' sovereignty. After the Russian invasion began, the United States, under former President Joe Biden, committed over $175 billion in aid for Ukraine, including over $60 billion in security assistance. Fox News

U.S. sending dozens of Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine. The U.S. has sent approximately 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland for delivery to Ukraine, marking the largest Israeli-linked arms transfer to Ukraine since Russia's invasion began nearly three years ago. The Patriots, critical for defending Ukraine’s infrastructure, were decommissioned by Israel in April. After months of delays due to fears of Russian retaliation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the transfer in September. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly insisted on finalizing this missile deal before granting Netanyahu’s request to allow ultra-Orthodox Israelis to make a pilgrimage to Uman. U.S. planes carried the interceptors to Poland recently. Axios

EU aims to fast-track Ukraine membership bid in 2025. According to European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, the EU plans to accelerate Ukraine's membership talks by opening two negotiating clusters by mid-2025. Ukraine, which received legal approval to start negotiations, has yet to open its first cluster in the six-cluster, 35-chapter process. EU officials, including Kaja Kallas, emphasized the importance of expanding the bloc and increasing pressure on Russia to end the war. Ukraine sees EU membership as a strategic goal ahead of anticipated peace talks. However, progress depends on unanimous agreement from member states, with Hungary notably opposing Ukraine’s accession. This marks the EU's most ambitious expansion effort in decades. Politico EU

Many Ukrainian Aid Groups Stop Work After Trump’s Halt on Foreign Assistance. The Trump administration’s suspension of U.S. foreign aid has forced many Ukrainian humanitarian organizations to halt operations. The 90-day aid freeze, tied to an audit, has disrupted vital programs supporting war veterans, displaced persons, and frontline communities reliant on U.S. funding. Hope for Ukraine warns that firewood deliveries, essential for heating and cooking, will cease, affecting millions in areas like Kherson and Kharkiv. Veteran Hub paused major initiatives. U.S. Aid for International Development, a $37 billion donor since 2022, faces scrutiny, with exemptions under negotiation. New York Times Washington Post

SBU says it dismantled Russian spy network targeting F-16 jets. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Tuesday its agents dismantled a Russian spy network targeting F-16 fighter jets and aviation infrastructure. Two agents from Kremenchuk, aged 21 and 22, were arrested near a military airfield while photographing an F-16. Recruited by a female Russian Security Service (FSB) officer, they were tasked with collecting intelligence on military airfields and aircraft geolocations to aid Russian missile and drone strikes. The SBU intercepted their activities early, preventing data transfer. Both face life imprisonment for treason. Ukraine began using F-16s in 2024.  Kyiv Independent

Top Ukrainian defense official sacked amid infighting over procurement. Ukraine dismissed Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov on Tuesday amid internal disputes over arms procurement. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov had criticized the system for failing frontline troops and accused the Defense Procurement Agency of excessive transparency. Despite her Western-backed reforms, Umerov also declined to renew the contract of agency chief Maryna Bezrukova. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau has since opened an investigation into Umerov. The dispute comes as Ukrainian troops struggle against Russian advances. G7 diplomats urged Kyiv to resolve the issue swiftly to maintain international trust. Reuters

Mayor in Ukraine's Lviv Oblast fined for disrupting mobilization activities. Taras Kuchma, the mayor of Drohobych in western Lviv Oblast, has been fined for obstructing Ukraine’s mobilization efforts under a 2024 law assigning local governments responsibility for conscription tasks. Kuchma argued that mayors lacked the legal authority to enforce enlistment and vowed to appeal the fine. Initially summoned to the enlistment office, he refused to appear, prompting police involvement. Several other Lviv Oblast mayors were also fined for similar reasons. The Ukrainian Cities’ Association has appealed to President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing pressure on local officials. Ukraine has struggled to sustain mobilization despite legislative reforms, hurting its ability to counter Russia’s eastern advances. Kyiv Independent

'Pure propaganda' — Kharkiv Oblast governor denies Russian claims of capturing Dvorichna. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov on Tuesday denied Russian claims of capturing Dvorichna in the Kupiansk district, calling them “pure propaganda.” Fighting in the area continues, with Russia attempting for months to secure a foothold west of the Oskil River. Russian forces have increased operations near Kupiansk since September but faced Ukrainian resistance. Kupiansk's military administration previously warned of Russian attempts to establish a bridgehead in Dvorichna to push further into the region. Kyiv Independent

2 killed in Mykolaiv amid Russian missile attack. A Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv killed two women, aged 54 and 56, on Tuesday, regional governor Vitalii Kim reported. The victims were employees of a private food industry facility that was partially destroyed in the attack. Mykolaiv, located about 60 kilometers from the Kherson front line, frequently faces Russian strikes. The State Emergency Service confirmed the casualties and ongoing rescue efforts. Southern Ukraine remains a frequent target of Russian missile attacks. Kyiv Independent

Waves of Ukrainian drones target Russian power and oil facilities. Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Russian energy and power infrastructure early Wednesday, with 104 drones targeting multiple regions. Russian officials reported an attempted strike on the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, which air defenses intercepted. In Belgorod, authorities said a drone attack killed a mother and her two-year-old child, with two others wounded. The Lukoil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod, sustained major damage, with video footage showing a large fire. Russian air defenses intercepted 11 drones over Smolensk. A drone strike sparked a fire at Sibur’s Kstovo petrochemical plant in Nizhny Novgorod, forcing a temporary shutdown. Airports in Kazan and St. Petersburg briefly suspended flights. Kyiv said its strikes were aimed at Russian military infrastructure supporting the war. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have intensified in recent months. Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent France 24

Trump's stance on Ukraine, Russia — what we know from his first week in office. Donald Trump’s first week in office sent mixed signals on Ukraine. His Jan. 20 inauguration speech omitted Ukraine and Russia’s invasion, raising concerns. By Jan. 21, Trump suggested imposing tariffs and sanctions if Russian President Vladimir Putin refused peace talks. On Jan. 23 at Davos, Trump insisted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was ready to negotiate and pressured Russia. Putin, on Jan. 24, falsely claimed Ukraine was blocking talks, which former U.S. envoy Kurt Volker dismissed. Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said Trump may soon realize Putin has no intention to negotiate. Trump also proposed lowering oil prices via OPEC to weaken Russia’s war funding. Kyiv remains skeptical about Trump’s ability to end the war quickly. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, is expected to visit Kyiv and European capitals to shape future policy. Kyiv Independent

Chastened by Past Wars, Kremlin Tries to Elevate Its Veterans. The Kremlin is elevating veterans of the Ukraine war to prominent societal roles to reshape Russia’s elite and glorify its military efforts. Programs like Time of Heroes aim to integrate veterans into leadership positions, offering training, business opportunities, and public recognition. Veterans now address schools, lead patriotic clubs, and are featured in state media, promoting their "heroism." Despite this push, critics argue that the initiative primarily benefits career military personnel, leaving rank-and-file veterans unsupported. Additionally, some celebrated veterans face accusations of war crimes. Analysts see the campaign as a Kremlin strategy to bolster support for its war narrative. New York Times

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 28. A Russian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Presidential Special Representative Alexander Lavrentyev arrived in Syria on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s continued use of its military bases, though negotiations remain stalled. The Russian military is evacuating assets from the Port of Tartus, with satellite imagery showing Russian cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II loading equipment amid delayed docking permissions from Syrian authorities. Russia has likely formed a new unmanned systems regiment within the Central Military District, supporting the broader effort to centralize drone warfare and integrate informal detachments under the Unmanned Systems Forces. NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai warned that Russia is escalating sabotage efforts against NATO states, including train derailments, arson, and assassination plots, to undermine support for Ukraine.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Toretsk and near Pokrovsk, while Russian forces gained ground near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump’s Ukraine Moment. Holman W. Jenkins Jr. asserts that Donald Trump’s stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine marks a dramatic shift, with Trump positioning the U.S. as eager to resolve the war quickly. Jenkins critiques Vladimir Putin’s misjudgment of American resilience, contrasting it with Trump’s ability to exploit opponents’ narratives to bolster his own. While some view Putin as a desperate figure, others see him strategically biding time for a stronger position. Jenkins argues that Trump’s unconventional approach creates a dynamic where Putin faces mounting pressure to confront his failed gamble. Wall Street Journal

Opinion: Trump’s Russia sanctions might be what finally works. Tom Keatinge argues that Donald Trump’s proposed Russia sanctions could be the decisive economic blow to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations. As hinted at in a recent Truth Social post, Trump's approach includes tariffs, taxes, and aggressive sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. Keatinge contrasts this with the West’s gradualist sanctions, which have allowed Russia to adapt. Trump’s strategy, he suggests, could force oil-buying nations to shift to U.S. energy, aligning American economic interests with efforts to weaken Russia’s war financing. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Davos heard Ukraine’s call, but will Europe seize the opportunity? Stephan Jensen argues that Ukraine’s message at the World Economic Forum in Davos was clear: Europe’s future strength depends on recognizing Ukraine as an economic, technological, and geopolitical asset. He highlights Ukraine’s advanced military, drone technology, critical raw materials, and thriving tech sector as vital for European security and growth. While skepticism about investing in Ukraine persists, Jensen sees an opportunity. He suggests that Donald Trump’s stance on pressuring Russia reinforces Ukraine’s case for European leadership, urging investors to seize untapped potential before they miss a transformative opportunity. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: 3 key takeaways from Davos from Ukraine’s economy minister. Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister and economy minister, outlines three key takeaways from the World Economic Forum in Davos: continued military and economic aid, stronger sanctions on Russia, and the private sector’s role in Ukraine’s recovery. She emphasizes that global stability depends on countering Russia’s aggression, noting that sanctions have cost Russia $78.5 billion in oil revenue. Svyrydenko calls for businesses to exit the Russian market and highlights Ukraine’s economic resilience, citing a projected 3.6% growth rate. She argues that securing Ukraine’s future is a global responsibility requiring long-term investment, military backing, and economic support. Kyiv Independent

THE AMERICAS

Federal judge delays Trump’s federal spending freeze. President Donald Trump moved swiftly to pause trillions of dollars in federal spending while he made sure it would bolster his goals   He targeted programs that fund schools, provide housing and ensure low-income Americans have access to health care.  U.S. District Judge Loren L. AliKhan, a Biden appointee, stayed Trump’s directive until at least Feb. 3, giving a coalition of advocates, nonprofits and businesses time to make a case against Trump’s claims of power over Washington’s purse.  Washington Post Bloomberg Associated Press  

Pace of executive orders including spending freeze causes confusion in Pentagon.  The U.S. Army's hasty attempt to implement President Trump's executive order on diversity, equity, and inclusion led to significant confusion. Top officials misinterpreted the directive, resulting in a temporary freeze on new weapons contracts—a move that was later rescinded after the Pentagon clarified no such pause was intended. This incident disrupted the defense industry and highlighted the challenges of swiftly executing executive orders within the vast Defense Department. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the importance of promptly executing the president's lawful orders, but the episode underscores the difficulties in rapid policy implementation and the potential for miscommunication within federal agencies.  Politico 

Trump administration urges 2 million federal workers to resign with pay. The White House’s Office of Personnel Management sent emails Tuesday to vast numbers of federal employees inviting them to resign and collect paychecks through September.  It’s yet another way the Trump administration hopes to downsize the federal workforce.  New York Times Washington Post 

SecState Rubio backs down in foreign aid freeze, will fund humanitarian projects. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a memo Tuesday that exempts “core lifesaving programs” that involve medicine, medical services, food and shelter from a Jan. 24 directive calling for a broad suspension of foreign assistance during a three-month review of aid programs.  Humanitarian organizations feared the freeze would disrupt the distribution of vaccines, food and other vital assistance in needy countries around the world. Wall Street Journal Associated Press  Washington Post BBC  

Hegseth cancels Milley’s security detail, strips his security clearance, launches review. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth removed the security detail of Gen. Mark A. Milley, the retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revoked his security clearance, and ordered an inspector general inquiry into his rank and record, the Pentagon said late Tuesday. Milley clashed with President Trump during his first term. At a 2023 ceremony marking his retirement, he said soldiers took an oath to the Constitution and not to a “a king, or a queen, or to a tyrant or dictator, and we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator.”  New York Times Washington Post  

Trump's early moves unpopular, poll finds. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Americans don't like President Donald Trump's attempt to do away with birthright citizenship and rename the Gulf of Mexico.  Some 59% of respondents - including 89% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans - said they opposed ending birthright citizenship.  The poll showed 45% of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, down from 47% in a Jan. 20-21 poll. Reuters  

Trump’s nominee for key job figured in the president’s first impeachment. Michael Duffey, Trump’s nominee to be undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, served as the associate director at the Office of Management and Budget during Trump’s first term. In that job, he ordered the Pentagon in July 2019 to place the hold on $391 million in security assistance for Ukraine. At the time Trump tried to get President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to investigate Trump’s 2020 election rival Joe Biden.   Associated Press

White House say Trump still determined to impose Feb 1 tariffs on Canada, Mexico. President Donald Trump remains committed to imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico by February 1, unless they take action to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, according to Tuesday comments by White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. He is also considering a 10% tariff on Chinese imports due to Beijing’s role in the fentanyl trade. While Mexico has increased border security cooperation, no clear conditions have been set for avoiding the tariffs. Trump used tariff threats this week to pressure Colombia into accepting U.S. deportations, but the stakes are much higher for Canada, Mexico, and China. Collectively, these nations account for $2.1 trillion in annual trade with the U.S. Disruptions could severely impact industries, particularly automotive manufacturing, where parts frequently cross borders. Experts caution that a trade war could harm the U.S. economy as well, making resolution critical. Meanwhile, Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, is set for a confirmation hearing but has not revealed further details on trade strategy. Reuters Financial Post NHK 

American senators evaluate China’s influence over Panama Canal. Bipartisan U.S. senators gathered on Tuesday to debate China’s influence over the Panama Canal, with opinions on solutions ranging from enhanced trade partnerships to possible military intervention. The hearing, led by the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, examined Trump’s claims that Panama’s growing commercial ties with China violate the 1977 treaty's neutrality clause. Trump has insisted that the U.S. must reclaim the canal, arguing that increased Chinese presence threatens its neutrality and security. While China Harbour Engineering Company won a $1.4 billion contract to build a fourth bridge, and Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports operates key ports at the canal’s entrances, neither manages the canal itself. Some Republican senators, including Ted Cruz, warned that China’s presence could lead to militarization, while legal experts suggested the U.S. has unilateral authority under Article Five of the treaty to enforce neutrality—even by force. However, Democrats, including Senator Andy Kim, cautioned that aggressive rhetoric could damage U.S.-Panama relations, potentially pushing Panama closer to Beijing. Senator Maria Cantwell proposed modernizing trade agreements and investing in infrastructure as an alternative to direct intervention. South China Morning Post Reuters VOA 

Pentagon gives ICE permission to use Colorado military base to hold migrants. The Pentagon has authorized Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to use Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado to detain undocumented migrants, further deepening the military’s involvement in immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump. While no military personnel will handle detainees, ICE will utilize the base’s infrastructure for processing and holding migrants. According to the U.S. Northern Command, ICE requested and received a temporary operations center, staging area, and holding facility at the base. The number of migrants to be held there remains unclear. The facility will be managed by senior immigration officials and other federal law enforcement personnel. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth affirmed full military support for border security and did not rule out invoking the Insurrection Act to allow military enforcement of immigration laws. Currently, 1,600 Marines and Army soldiers have been deployed to the Mexican border, joining 2,500 Army reservists already stationed there, with more troops expected soon. New York Times Reuters CBS 

Brazil will establish deportee reception center following controversial flight from U.S. The Brazilian government on Tuesday announced plans to establish a humanitarian reception center for deported migrants from the U.S. in Confins, Minas Gerais, following a wave of concerns over conditions on a recent deportation flight. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva approved the move after a flight carrying 88 deportees arrived over the weekend under the new Trump administration. Reports indicated that passengers were handcuffed and endured poor conditions, including a malfunctioning air conditioning system. Brazil’s Foreign Ministry has sought explanations from Washington about the “degrading” treatment of its nationals. The U.S. Embassy and ICE have not commented on the matter. Brazilian Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski stressed the need to ensure the dignity of returning Brazilians while avoiding diplomatic tensions with the U.S. Associated Press 

Deported migrants recount treatment on flights aboard U.S. military planes. The Trump administration has expedited deportations by using U.S. military cargo planes, drawing criticism from human rights groups about the treatment of migrants. The Associated Press interviewed women who were among 64 migrants recently deported to Guatemala, some of them just days after being apprehended. This move is part of a broader push that has resulted in the deportation of 7,300 people in the first week of Trump’s second term. The use of military planes for deportations has sparked controversy, especially in Latin America, where U.S. military presence has a contentious history. Colombian President Gustavo Petro blocked U.S. military planes from landing, opting to send Colombian aircraft to pick up deportees instead. In contrast, Guatemala has accepted at least three such flights, with officials stating they are obligated to receive their nationals. Human rights advocates argue that deportations should remain a civilian process, condemning the use of shackles on deportees. Some migrants reported that their handcuffs were painfully tight and made eating difficult during the flight. Associated Press 

ANALYSIS–Trump Can’t Bully Latin America Without Consequences. Donald Trump’s coercion of Colombian President Gustavo Petro into resuming U.S. deportation flights highlights his aggressive foreign policy toward Latin America. Petro initially resisted, demanding dignified treatment for deportees, but capitulated after Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Colombian goods. The episode reflects Trump’s broader strategy of using economic and military threats, including potential action against Panama and punitive tariffs on BRICS countries. Latin American governments are increasingly alarmed by Trump’s heavy-handed tactics. Brazil and Mexico have condemned the treatment of deportees, while China is seizing the opportunity to strengthen regional ties. Trump’s confrontational approach may weaken U.S. influence as countries seek alternatives to Washington, particularly through economic partnerships with Beijing. While some nations may comply out of necessity, Trump’s bullying risks fostering resentment and accelerating Latin America’s geopolitical shift. His focus on migration and trade coercion, rather than cooperation, may push regional leaders to diversify alliances, reducing long-term U.S. leverage. Foreign Policy

EUROPE

Europe’s leaders plot to stop Trump from taking Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has secured strong European backing against President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland following a whirlwind diplomatic tour on Tuesday. Meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, she stressed the need for a unified response, declaring it “absolutely crucial” to uphold territorial sovereignty. Scholz reinforced this principle, warning, “Borders must not be moved by force,” pointedly adding, “To whom it may concern.” Trump’s interest in Greenland, once dismissed as a joke in 2019, has triggered serious concerns. After a tense 45-minute call with Trump, Frederiksen realized he was “deadly serious.” His insistence that U.S. control is a “vital national security matter” echoes a long history of American interest in Greenland, dating back to Secretary of State William Seward’s failed 1867 attempt to acquire it. With the issue set for discussion at a European Union summit on Feb. 3, Frederiksen has emphasized Denmark’s firm stance: “There must be respect for sovereignty.” Politico EU New York Times Washington Post

A big majority of Greenlanders do not want to be part of US, poll finds. A new poll shows that 85% of Greenlanders reject the idea of joining the U.S., despite President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire the Arctic Island. Only 6% supported becoming part of the U.S., while 9% were undecided. Conducted by Verian for Greenlandic and Danish newspapers, the survey polled 497 people online. Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede reaffirmed, “We don’t want to be Danish; we don’t want to be American—we want to be Greenlandic.” Denmark and Greenland have announced increased military spending, but Trump dismissed it, mocking reports of “two dog sleds” being part of the defense package. Financial Times

Serbian President Rocked by Protests as Key Ally Resigns. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic faces escalating protests fueled by public outrage over corruption and a deadly roof collapse in Novi Sad. Amid mounting pressure, Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, a close ally, resigned on Tuesday, effectively dissolving the government. Protesters, including students and opposition groups, demand Vucic’s resignation, citing his consolidation of power and weakened institutions. Analysts doubt the cabinet reshuffle will quell unrest, as no clear political alternative or strategy has emerged. Vucic, who has balanced ties with Russia and the West, now seeks to advance Serbia’s European Union ambitions while navigating tensions with pro-Russian hardliners in his administration. Bloomberg

Lessons for Russia as China builds navy to rival US by 2049. A Russian think tank, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has analyzed China’s military buildup and suggested lessons for Russia. The report predicts that by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China, the PLA Navy could rival the U.S. Navy with advanced aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and hypersonic weapons. The RIAC highlighted China’s focus on artificial intelligence, space warfare, and military-civil integration. Russia is studying China’s transformation of defense firms but acknowledges differences in structure. The report also warns that China will prioritize technological sovereignty over rigid alliances, potentially reshaping global power based on tech competition rather than military strength. South China Morning Post

EU lets Russian LNG slip in new sanctions package. The European Union’s latest sanctions package will not impose a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, despite pressure from 10 member states, including Finland, Poland, and the Baltic nations. Instead, the proposal only restricts LNG deliveries to EU terminals not connected to the bloc’s gas network, a move unlikely to impact most imports. Lithuania’s Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas called the decision “a pity” but expressed hope for an eventual full ban. The package includes penalties for 74 Russian oil tankers operating in the shadow fleet and proposes restrictions on aluminum exports. Additionally, the EU will target video game equipment, like Microsoft’s Xbox, which it claims Russia uses for drone piloting. The move comes as new data shows EU imports of Russian LNG surged nearly 20% in 2024, with major deliveries arriving in Spain, Belgium, and France. Opposition from Hungary and other countries has repeatedly blocked broader gas restrictions. Politico EU

EU to Propose Russian Aluminum Ban in Sweeping Sanctions Package. The European Union is proposing a phased ban on Russian aluminum imports as part of its 16th sanctions package, marking the latest effort to tighten economic pressure on Moscow ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The plan would allow limited imports under a quota system for one year before a full ban takes effect. The package also targets 15 Russian banks, over 70 shadow fleet oil tankers, and remaining agricultural imports from Russia and Belarus. The U.S. and U.K. previously banned Russian metals on the London Metal Exchange. Bloomberg

EU plans tariffs on Russia, Belarus farm produce, fertilizers. The European Commission proposed new tariffs on agricultural products and nitrogen-based fertilizers from Russia and Belarus to strengthen European Union food security and reduce reliance on imports. The measures target the 15% of Russian agricultural imports not previously subject to higher duties and aim to weaken Moscow's export revenue and war capabilities. The fertilizer tariffs include provisions to protect EU farmers from significant price hikes and will not hinder transit to third countries. While previous sanctions avoided targeting agriculture to preserve global supplies, the proposal now awaits approval by EU governments and the European Parliament, with implementation expected in months. Reuters

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni says she is being investigated for repatriating a Libyan warlord. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is under investigation for allegedly aiding and abetting a crime and misuse of public funds after her government repatriated Osama Najim (also known as Osama Almasri), a Libyan war crimes suspect wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Arrested in Turin on Jan. 19, Najim was released on a legal technicality and flown to Tripoli on Jan. 21 aboard an Italian state aircraft. The ICC condemned the move, saying Italy failed to consult with the court. Najim, accused of murder, torture, and rape at Libya’s notorious Mitiga prison, was welcomed as a hero upon arrival in Tripoli. Italy's interior minister claimed Najim posed a security threat, justifying his swift expulsion. Meloni dismissed the probe as politically motivated, linking it to opposition figures. Justice Minister Carlo Nordio and Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi are also under investigation. The case has strained Italy-ICC relations and sparked domestic criticism. Associated Press The Guardian BBC Al Jazeera   

At least 11 Baltic cables have been damaged in 15 months, prompting NATO to up its guard. A series of incidents damaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has raised concerns about potential Russian sabotage. On Jan. 26, an undersea data cable between Latvia and Sweden was severed, prompting Swedish authorities to detain a Bulgarian-owned vessel suspected of interference. This follows similar cases, including damage to Finnish Estonian cables in December, allegedly caused by a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker. Investigations suggest that ships dragging anchors have cut cables, though experts doubt these are mere accidents.In response, NATO has launched “Baltic Sentry,” a surveillance mission deploying warships, patrol aircraft, and naval drones to deter further threats. At least 11 cables have been damaged since October 2023, fueling fears that Russia is targeting infrastructure as part of a hybrid warfare strategy. However, some intelligence officials suggest maritime accidents, rather than deliberate sabotage, may be to blame. The European Union is considering new sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, while NATO vows to step up patrols. Associated Press  RFE/RL

Baltic Sea shipping tax could pay for undersea cable protection, says Estonian minister. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur proposed a shipping tax in the Baltic Sea to fund undersea cable protection after recent damage linked to suspected Russian sabotage. NATO has deployed patrols, while countries consider costly measures like sensors and protective walls. Pevkur suggested a fee similar to airport charges, with shipping firms potentially covering costs. The Baltic's heavy traffic—4,000 ships daily—makes it vulnerable. A Maltese-flagged ship was seized over recent cable damage. Pevkur pointed to Russia’s “shadow fleet” as a likely culprit, while Moscow dismissed the claims as baseless. Investigations into multiple incidents remain ongoing. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Russia Is Spinning Up a New Barrage of Lies in Europe. Russia is intensifying its disinformation efforts across Europe in 2025 as political instability provides fertile ground for manipulation. European leaders await Donald Trump’s stance on the war, while Vladimir Putin leverages hybrid warfare to sow discord. With rising populism, economic uncertainty, and key elections in France, Germany, Austria, and the U.K., Russia sees opportunities to exploit divisions. Disinformation has already influenced elections, including Romania’s, where a Russian-backed candidate’s victory was overturned due to interference. Moldova and Georgia have also been targeted. Moscow is expected to escalate energy-related propaganda, blaming Ukraine and Moldova for gas shortages in Russian-occupied Transnistria. European leaders like Slovakia’s Robert Fico have engaged with Russia, further complicating unity. Tech giants scaling back content moderation may amplify Kremlin narratives. As Europe remains politically fragmented, Putin aims to weaken Western coordination, obstruct support for Ukraine, and gain leverage in potential negotiations with Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Orbán’s power to disrupt is exaggerated. Mujtaba Rahman argues that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ability to disrupt the European Union under Donald Trump’s presidency is exaggerated. While Orbán is expected to wield his veto on Ukraine and EU tariffs, he faces his toughest domestic challenge since taking power in 2010. Opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party now leads in polls, forcing Orbán to introduce subsidies and tax breaks to win back voters. Meanwhile, Hungary’s economy is faltering, with growth projections falling far below targets and inflation remaining a concern. These challenges, coupled with Hungary’s financial reliance on China, weaken Orbán’s influence in the EU. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

ANALYSIS–Iran rethinks confrontation with Donald Trump. Iran is reassessing its stance toward U.S. President Donald Trump, aiming to avoid confrontation and possibly negotiate a deal. This shift comes amid Iran's increased vulnerability due to recent conflicts with Israel, which have weakened its regional influence and proxies like Hezbollah. Western diplomats note that Iran's government, led by reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, has shown a greater willingness to negotiate to alleviate economic pressures and prevent military conflicts with the U.S. and Israel. However, with Iran enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels and the impending expiration of the 2015 nuclear deal's sunset clauses in October, there is urgency to settle. Internal debates within Iran advocate for negotiations, viewing it as a crucial opportunity to avert further crises and ensure the regime's stability. Financial Times

Iran’s alarming nuclear dash will soon test US. Iran’s rapid nuclear escalation is emerging as a test for President Donald Trump, with uranium enrichment levels approaching weapons-grade and advanced centrifuges increasing production capacity sevenfold. Israeli strikes last year severely weakened Iran’s missile stockpiles, air defenses, and regional allies, leaving its nuclear program as its strongest remaining leverage. While some Israeli officials argue a military strike is no longer feasible, others believe it remains possible with U.S. bunker-busting bombs and intelligence. Trump has dismissed Iran’s nuclear ambitions but appears hesitant about immediate military action, favoring renewed sanctions under his “maximum pressure” strategy. Iran’s leadership is caught between seeking nuclear deterrence and avoiding further economic and military fallout. Some officials favor negotiations, fearing Trump’s unpredictability. With the 2015 nuclear deal’s sunset clauses expiring in October, European powers may reimpose sanctions, and Israel could act preemptively. Trump remains noncommittal, saying, “Iran will hopefully make a deal. And if they don’t, that’s okay too.” The Economist

Russian Envoys Arrive in Syria for First Time Since al-Assad Fell. A Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and special envoy Aleksandr Lavrentiev, arrived in Damascus for the first time since Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed last month. Russia seeks to negotiate the future of its military bases in Syria, as the new rebel-led government, under Ahmed al-Shara, signals a willingness to maintain ties with Moscow. Al-Shara’s group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is designated a terrorist organization by both Russia and the U.S. Russia faces uncertainty over its Tartus and Khmeimim bases, with President Vladimir Putin acknowledging potential changes under Syria’s new leadership. Negotiations on Russia’s presence are expected. New York Times

Explosion forces crew to abandon Hong Kong-flagged container ship in the Red Sea. An explosion hit the Hong Kong-flagged container ship ASL Bauhinia in the Red Sea on Tuesday, causing a fire and forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. The ship was drifting near Yemen’s Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida. The cause of the fire remains unclear, though the Houthis have repeatedly targeted ships in the region since November 2023. The vessel, crewed entirely by Chinese mariners, was traveling from Dubai to Jeddah. The crew was rescued unharmed. Houthi attacks have halved Red Sea shipping traffic, affecting global trade. The Chinese navy operates nearby, while concerns remain over environmental damage from burning ships. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. stops funding for mine clearing in Southeast Asia, sparking fears of death and danger. Decades after the Vietnam War, unexploded American bombs continue to claim lives across Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. The United States has been a major contributor to demining efforts, providing $750 million over thirty years to clear land mines, cluster munitions and other unexploded ordnance. However, the Trump administration has suspended global mine-clearing programs for at least three months, as part of a broader pause on U.S. foreign aid, sparking concerns of increased casualties. Experts warn that without continued funding, people—especially farmers and children—are at risk of stepping on mines that should have been cleared. As of 2023, nearly a fifth of Vietnam was contaminated, and schoolchildren in the country are taught how to identify and avoid these unexploded bombs. The funding halt has been met with frustration and disappointment in Southeast Asia, where officials argue that the U.S. bears responsibility for war remnants. China has increased demining support in recent years, and analysts warn that affected nations may turn to Beijing for aid. Since the war’s end, 40,000 people have died in Vietnam, 65,000 in Cambodia, and 22,000 in Laos due to unexploded bombs. With Laos still needing $50 million annually for mine clearance, advocacy groups are urging Washington to reverse the decision, arguing that the suspension damages U.S. credibility in regions that rely on its support. New York Times

Analysts believe images reveal China’s construction of massive fusion research facility. Satellite images examined by experts suggest that Beijing is building a large laser-ignited fusion research facility in Mianyang, a city in southwestern China. The facility could advance nuclear weapons design and fusion energy research, according to analysts from CNA Corp and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). The satellite photos show a layout similar to California’s $3.5 billion U.S. National Ignition Facility (NIF), but with an experiment bay estimated to be 50% larger. This type of facility allows for nuclear weapons research without explosive testing, enhancing weapon designs while complying with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. While laser fusion research is also pursued by the U.S., France, the U.K., and Russia, experts are divided on its significance for China. Some argue that without extensive past nuclear test data, such experiments are less valuable for China compared to the U.S., which has conducted over 1,000 tests. However, others note that scientific progress in laser fusion is inevitable, and countries may use it for different purposes, including clean energy development or weapons advancements. The Chinese government has not commented on the project. Reuters

North Korean leader Kim demands bolstered nuclear forces as he tours nuclear facility. North Korean state media on Wednesday reported leader Kim Jong Un’s recent inspection of a nuclear material production facility, during which he reaffirmed his commitment to expanding Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. His visit signals increased pressure on the U.S. following Trump’s second-term inauguration. Kim praised scientists for their role in producing weapons-grade nuclear materials, reinforcing North Korea’s nuclear shield. The visit likely took place at a uranium-enrichment facility previously visited by Kim in September. This inspection comes just days after the North conducted a cruise missile test, its third weapons display this year, in response to U.S.-South Korean military drills, which Pyongyang views as invasion rehearsals. Washington and Seoul insist their exercises are defensive. Trump’s return to office raises diplomatic prospects, as he previously met Kim three times. In a recent Fox News interview, Trump called Kim “a smart guy” and confirmed he is open to re-engaging in talks. Experts believe Kim now holds stronger bargaining power than before due to his regime’s expanded nuclear arsenal and its strong military ties with Russia. CNN Reuters France 24 Associated Press 

Taiwan’s government may offer aid for industry as Trump threatens tariffs. Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai announced on Wednesday that the government will soon examine whether it is necessary to assist its domestic industry amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel. Cho stated that officials are closely monitoring developments and will “urgently” review potential assistance programs for the sector. Taipei, home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a key supplier for Apple and Nvidia, plays a crucial role in the global technology supply chain. Despite Trump's tariff threats, Cho asserted that the island’s position in the industry remains strong and that the country will continue fostering external cooperation and technological leadership. TSMC previously committed to a $12 billion Arizona factory under Trump’s first administration, later expanding the investment to $65 billion. However, the company has not commented on Trump’s latest remarks. Taiwan's trade surplus with the U.S. surged 83% in 2024, reaching $111.4 billion, largely driven by semiconductor exports. Meanwhile, Trump has also launched investigations into U.S. trade deficits, unfair trade practices, and alleged currency manipulation, which could pose further challenges for Taiwan’s economy. Reuters

Myanmar refugees reeling after Thai hospitals ordered to close amid Trump aid freeze. U.S. President Donald Trump’s freeze on foreign aid is impacting people and organizations across the globe, and now healthcare clinics serving tens of thousands of refugees on the Thai Myanmar border have been ordered to close. The International Rescue Committee (IRC), which funds these facilities with Washington’s support, instructed the centers to shut down by January 31. The decision comes in the wake of Trump’s 90-day pause on U.S. development aid to assess its alignment with his “America First” policy, fueling turmoil in the global aid sector. The shutdown has already impacted pregnant women, patients reliant on oxygen, and those needing urgent care. Around 50 patients have been discharged, while severely ill individuals remain in the Mae La hospital. The camp’s water distribution and garbage disposal systems, also supported by the IRC, have been disrupted. Thai officials are working to transfer the most critical patients to local hospitals, while others are left scrambling for basic medical support. There is growing concern that refugees, who depend entirely on these services, will struggle to access essential healthcare during the aid freeze. Reuters 

Attack on southwest Pakistani security post leaves 2 soldiers, 5 militants dead. Two soldiers and five insurgents, including two suicide bombers, were killed this week after militants attacked a security post in Qila Abdullah, Balochistan, Pakistan, leading to a shootout. The attackers attempted to breach the post and later detonated an explosive-laden vehicle against a perimeter wall. The Pakistani military credited its troops with successfully repelling the assault and referred to the attackers as "khwarij," a term used for the Pakistani Taliban. No group has claimed responsibility, but speculation points to the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatist militants, both of whom frequently target security forces in the region. Balochistan, rich in natural gas, has faced a two-decade-long separatist insurgency, with militant groups initially demanding resource control but later pushing for independence. The Pakistani Taliban also maintain a heavy presence in the province. Associated Press Reuters 

AFRICA

M23 insurgents take control of Congo’s Goma, seize airport as protestors in Kinshasa attack embassies. Chaos is engulfing Goma, eastern Congo’s largest city, as armed M23 rebels backed by Rwanda flood the streets, driving thousands of people out of the area. The insurgents have seized Goma’s airport, severing a crucial supply route for humanitarian aid in the region, and the city’s capture marks the worst escalation of conflict since 2012. There have been reports of rape, looting, overwhelmed hospitals, mortar fire, and dead bodies in the streets. Large groups of people have crossed into Rwanda, fleeing shootouts between the Congolese soldiers and the militants. One displaced teacher sheltering in a Rwandan town lamented that “Congolese people are victims, but now they find themselves seeking refuge from the aggressor.” The U.N., which described the situation as "tense and fluid,” warned of the risks of a “breakdown of law and order in the city” due to “the proliferation of weapons." U.N. peacekeepers and aid workers have been forced to take shelter, and the U.S. has ordered some embassy staff to evacuate the country. Protesters 1,600 km away in Kinshasa attacked at least 10 foreign embassies, including those of Rwanda, the U.S., and France, accusing them of foreign interference. The Kenyan embassy was also ransacked by looters. The U.N. fears the violence could trigger a wider regional war, potentially one similar to conflicts in the 1990s and early 2000s that killed millions. South Africa, whose peacekeeping troops are stationed in the area, reported 13 fatalities in recent clashes. With M23 controlling key supply routes, aid groups warn of worsening humanitarian conditions, while the U.N. urges diplomatic intervention to prevent further escalation. Analysts believe that the government of Rwandan Paul Kagame seeks to occupy Congolese territory and pillage its immense mineral wealth. Reuters New York Times  Associated Press Al Jazeera Euronews CNN Associated Press 

Rubio presses Rwandan president on ceasefire in Congo. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday expressed serious concerns to Rwandan President Paul Kagame regarding the escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), particularly the capture of Goma by M23 rebels, who are believed to be backed by Rwanda. In response to the worsening situation, the U.S. has urged the U.N. Security Council to take action against the offensive led by Rwandan forces and M23 militants. Rubio called for an immediate ceasefire and stressed the importance of respecting territorial sovereignty. The conflict has sparked renewed tensions between Rwanda and Congo, with Congo accusing Rwanda of sending troops across the border. Rwanda maintains that the fighting near its territory poses a security threat. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has reached out to both nations, as the violence has resulted in U.N. peacekeeper casualties. Reuters U.S. Department of State

Analysts believe M23 advance, seizure of Goma will fuel illicit mineral trade through Rwanda. Experts anticipate that M23 rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will increase their revenue from illegal mining, particularly in coltan and gold, as it expands control over mineral-rich areas. The group's recent capture of Goma and other strategic mining towns has heightened concerns about illicit trade through Rwanda, which denies supporting M23 in spite of repeated allegations from the U.N. Resource-rich Congo is a leading global producer of gold, coltan, tantalum, and cobalt, which are critical for batteries, mobile phones, and electronics. Analysts believe M23 profits significantly from illicit mineral trade, with gold being easier to monetize than coltan and tin; every year, millions of dollars’ worth of gold is funneled to Dubai via Rwanda or Kenya. Rwanda’s mineral exports have doubled in two years, exceeding $1 billion annually, with a large portion suspected to be sourced from DRC. U.N. reports indicate M23 monopolizes coltan exports from the Bibatama mine, collecting at least $800,000 per month in taxes from the trade. Rwanda’s lack of transparency in mining operations and geological data makes it difficult to track mineral origins, fueling concerns over illicit exports. Reuters

Concerns rise as U.S. aid freeze impacts group feeding malnourished Ethiopian children. The Trump administration’s freeze on U.S. foreign aid threatens billions of dollars in life-saving assistance worldwide, leaving refugees in critical need and aid groups unable to continue their work. The order has forced Action Against Hunger (ACF) to halt a program aiding severely malnourished children in Ethiopian refugee camps. A State Department order issued Friday instructed the group to immediately stop operating its therapeutic feeding centers in the Gambella region, which serve malnourished children under five and their mothers. Sources say that last year, ACF treated 3,000 children with severe acute malnutrition, while providing nutrition assistance to 400,000 people in the camps near the South Sudan border. With the aid suspension, the feeding centers are expected to shut down by the end of the week. The pause in foreign aid spending, part of Trump’s "America First" policy review, affects all funding except emergency food aid. However, aid organizations remain uncertain about which programs qualify for this exemption. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Alibaba releases AI model it says surpasses DeepSeek. Chinese tech company Alibaba on Wednesday released its Qwen 2.5-Max AI model, claiming it outperforms OpenAI’s GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3, and Meta’s Llama-3.1-405B. The launch, coinciding with Lunar New Year, underscores rising competition from DeepSeek, a Chinese startup whose recent AI advances have disrupted the industry. DeepSeek's cost-effective AI models triggered a price war, forcing Alibaba and others to slash prices. Rival ByteDance also upgraded its AI. DeepSeek’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, dismisses price concerns, focusing on AGI (artificial general intelligence) development. Unlike Alibaba’s vast workforce, DeepSeek operates leanly with young researchers, challenging the dominance of traditional tech giants in China’s AI race. Reuters

Chinese and Iranian Hackers Are Using U.S. AI Products to Bolster Cyberattacks. Chinese and Iranian hackers are increasingly using AI tools like Google’s Gemini to aid cyberattacks, according to a new report. These groups employ AI for efficiency—writing malicious code, identifying vulnerabilities, and researching targets—rather than developing new hacking techniques. Google has disrupted accounts linked to such activity. The report also highlights China’s AI advancements, with its DeepSeek platform rivaling top-tier Western models, raising security concerns. North Korean hackers used AI for cover letters in espionage efforts, while Russian usage was minimal. Google urged tighter U.S. export controls on AI-related technology to maintain its competitive edge. Wall Street Journal

Trump says coming tariffs will target chips, semiconductors in bid to restore U.S. manufacturing – President Donald Trump, speaking at a House Republican retreat in Miami, said he will announce “in the very near future” new tariffs on computer chips and semiconductors.  Trump explained that the tariffs will be used “to return production of these essential goods to the United States of America.”  The president said he wants chip and semiconductor manufacturers to open U.S. factories, adding that “if you want to stop paying the taxes or the tariffs, you have to build your plant right here in America.”  He predicted that chipmakers and other tech sectors are “not going to want to pay a 25, 50 or even 100 percent tax.”  Regarding government subsidies of U.S. manufacturers, Trump said “we don’t have to give them money. They’re going to come in because it’s good for them to come in.”  Referring to past developments in chipmaking, Trump added “they left us, and they went to Taiwan.  We want them to come back, and we don’t want to give them billions of dollars.”  Taiwan’s economy ministry said on Tuesday that U.S.-Taiwan cooperation in advanced technologies is “mutually beneficial” and “creates a win-win business model for Taiwan and U.S. industries.”  According to government sources, “semiconductors and other electronic components” ranked sixth in goods imported by the U.S. last year for a total of $126 billion. Taiwan’s export accounted for more than a quarter of that total.  Washington Post   CNN   Reuters

Trump describes DeepSeek AI challenge as ‘wake-up call’ for U.S. tech sector – President Donald Trump, speaking in the wake of broad stock market turmoil brought about by the sudden success of China’s DeepSeek AI model, said the development “should be a wake-up call for our industries that we need to be laser-focused on competing to win.”  Despite the stock market reversals, Trump said DeepSeek’s achievement of a low-cost, high-quality model “could be very much a positive development.”  The president added that “instead of spending billions and billions, you’ll spend less and you’ll come up with, hopefully, the same solution.”  DeepSeek’s development path stands in contrast to the experience of U.S. AI leaders, which have massive investments in data centers, AI chips, and research facilities.  Trump expressed confidence in the U.S. tech sector, vowing that his administration will “unleash our tech companies and we’re going to dominate the future like never before.”  The Hill   South China Morning Post   Reuters   Fortune

Tech experts warn that DeepSeek AI model has unique vulnerabilities & ships data to China – Technology experts are warning that despite its startling success in AI development, the Chinese firm, DeepSeek, could become “an attractive target for opportunistic attackers and those seeking to understand or exploit AI system vulnerabilities.”  That assessment from Stephen Kowski, field chief technology officer for cloud security company SlashNext, came as DeepSeek paused new registrations as its services were hit by “large-scale malicious attacks.”  Kela, an Israeli cybersecurity threat intelligence firm, reported that DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model, while bearing similarities to ChatGPT, “is significantly more vulnerable” to being jailbroken.  Kela researchers said that threats such as the “Evil Jailbreak” method for which OpenAI models have been patched, still may be effective against DeepSeek’s R1 model.  According to a Kela blog post, its AI red team “was able to jailbreak the model across a wide range of scenarios, enabling it to generate malicious outputs, such as ransomware development, fabrication of sensitive content, and detailed instructions for creating toxins and explosive devices.”  Kela researchers also reported that they could manipulate DeepSeek to create malicious code designed to extract credit card data from targeted browsers and send it to a remote server. They also discovered DeepSeek would recommend underground markets from which users could buy stolen data.  Other security concerns have been raised about the DeepSeek operation, including the fact that user data will go to servers stored in China.  Unless a user decides to download and run DeepSeek software locally, this collected information could include device model, operating system, keystroke patterns or rhythms, IP address, and system language, along with diagnostic and performance information, crash reports and performance logs.  John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, said “it shouldn’t take a panic over Chinese AI to remind people that most companies in the business set the terms for how they use your private data and that when you use their services, you’re doing work for them, not the other way around.” CyberScoop   Wired   Axios   Forbes

Nvidia says DeepSeek AI achievement will drive demand for company’s GPU’s – An Nvidia spokesperson on Monday described the DeepSeek R1 reasoning model as “an excellent AI advancement.”  The company lauded the “Test Time Scaling” method used in the R1 development, saying it “illustrates how new models can be created using that technique, leveraging widely available models and compute that is fully export control compliant.”  The test time scaling concept proposes that a fully trained AI model that spends more time using extra computer power to make predictions or generate text or images will provide better answers than it would have if it ran for less time.  The assessment from Nvidia reportedly reflects the company’s view that DeepSeek’s achievement will generate increased demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPU’s).   The spokesperson went on to explain that “inference requires significant numbers of NVIDIA GPUs and high-performance networking.”  Consequently, the spokesperson said, “we now have three scaling laws: pre-training and post-training, which continue, and new test-time scaling.” Nvidia said that the GPU’s available to DeepSeek were fully compliant with U.S. export controls, contradicting comments by Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang which suggested DeepSeek used Nvidia GPUs models banned from mainland China.  CNBC

DeepSeek CEO profiled as AI-powered hedge fund innovator, AI model pioneer – Liang Wenfeng, the little-known CEO of China’s DeepSeek AI startup, is being compared to innovators like OpenAI’s Sam Altman. DeepSeek’s surge in global AI model rankings has brought sudden attention to the company leader described as “a math geek who caught the investing bug.”  Liang’s High-Flyer hedge fund, which he began with two college friends in 2015, manages $8 billion in assets, one of China’s largest.  A native of a southern Chinese port city, Zhanjiang, Liang studied at China’s Zhejiang University, where he began writing AI algorithms to select stocks.  Drawing on that experience, Liang’s High-Flyer firm became a pioneer in applying AI to discern meaningful patterns from various types of data, including market prices.  In 2019, the team assembled by Liang began to develop computing systems using Nvidia GPU’s.  In 2021, Liang’s hedge fund encountered difficulties stemming from faulty projections, but even during that crisis which saw its assets shrink by more than a third, he was creating the foundation for DeepSeek.  That same year DeepSeek began with funding from High-Flyer’s R&D budget, drawing computing resources from the quant fund, which had amassed 10,000 Nvidia GPUs.  DeepSeek has been described as a research lab operation, which a source said “started small, but as they got real progress, they started to get excited.”  With occasional model releases, DeepSeek appeared unperturbed by U.S. restrictions on advanced AI chip exports, up to the point when it released its R1 reasoning model on January 20, the day of President Donald Trump’s inauguration.  Liang told an interviewer last July that “OpenAI is not a god and cannot always be at the forefront.”  Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg   Reuters

How China’s DeepSeek came out as the unlikely player in Washington-Beijing AI rivalry. Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek has shaken the global tech industry with its low-cost, high-performance AI models, DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1, which rival Silicon Valley giants despite U.S. semiconductor restrictions. The company's rapid success has disrupted financial markets, causing a significant drop in Nvidia’s stock value, and its chatbot has become the top free app on Apple’s App Store. Analysts credit much of DeepSeek’s success to its visionary founder, Liang Wenfeng, who launched the start-up in May 2023. DeepSeek focuses on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and open-source research, aiming to position China as an AI innovator rather than a follower. Success can also be linked to the firm’s team of young Chinese scientists, coming from top universities such as Tsinghua University and Peking University; its technical paper for R1 lists nearly 200 contributors. The company is backed by High-Flyer Quant, a hedge fund Liang previously founded, which provides computing resources despite U.S. chip export bans. Unlike other Chinese AI startups seeking billions in funding, DeepSeek has no plans to raise external capital and operates with a flat hierarchy, fostering rapid innovation. Liang emphasizes long-term AI research, steering DeepSeek toward AGI breakthroughs while maintaining financial independence. South China Morning Post 

U.S. Navy prohibits use of China’s DeepSeek, citing ‘security and ethical concerns.  The U.S. Navy has warned its personnel against using AI technology from China’s DeepSeek, citing security and ethical concerns. This directive, issued in an all-hands email on Friday, prohibits the use of DeepSeek’s AI for both work-related and personal tasks, and cautioned that it is “imperative” to “refrain from downloading, installing, or using the DeepSeek model in any capacity.” The memo is based on an advisory from Naval Air Warcraft Center Division Cyber Workforce Manger. The warning follows DeepSeek’s release of R1, a powerful open-source AI model that rivals OpenAI and has surged in popularity, topping Apple’s App Store. Despite U.S. restrictions on chip exports, DeepSeek built its model in just two months for under $6 million, significantly less than U.S. tech giants like OpenAI and Google. CNBC 

New executive order mandates development of ‘Iron Dome for America’ – President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order to propel development of a “next generation” missile defense shield.  The “made in the USA” Iron Dome defense will counteract “the threat of attack by ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles,” which the White House said “remains a catastrophic threat facing the United States.”  Compared to the missile defense system fielded by Israel, the U.S. version would need to cover the much greater expanse of the U.S. The executive order aims to speed up delivery of new missile tracking and intercepting systems.  While the U.S. military already operates missile defenses, such as the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense systems, none of them cover the entire U.S.  In his first remarks to reporters at the Pentagon, newly confirmed Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth referred to the executive order for an “Iron Dome for America.”  According to BreakingDefense, the president’s directive calls for increased investments in a multilayered homeland air defense system, including development of space-based interceptors.  It also mandates the development of non-kinetic capabilities to augment the kinetic defeat of ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks.  Bloomberg   DefenseScoop   BreakingDefense

Trump confirms Microsoft, other bidders’ interest in TikTok acquisition – Microsoft is one of the potential bidders, President Donald Trump said on Monday, to acquire the U.S. branch of TikTok.  The president responded in the affirmative when asked by reporters if Microsoft is involved in the takeover talks.  The president added that there is “a lot of interest in TikTok. There’s great interest in TikTok.”  Other suitors for the short-video platform include AI startup Perplexity and billionaire Frank McCourt, former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who made a formal offer to buy TikTok earlier this month.  Microsoft has declined to comment.  Speaking at a gathering of Republican legislators in Florida on Monday, Trump said “we’re going to have a lot of people bidding on it, and if we can save all that voice and all the jobs, and China won’t be involved, we don’t want China involved, but we’ll see what happens.”  In 2020, Microsoft discussed buying TikTok as the then-Trump administration attempted issued an executive order to force a sale.  The sale or ban of the app at that time was rejected by the courts on the grounds that the executive order exceeded the executive branch’s authority.   Bloomberg   Washington Post   TechCrunch

Trump and Musk suggest accelerated return of NASA astronauts, but details are sparse. Tech billionaire Elon Musk on Tuesday revealed that U.S. President Donald Trump has requested that SpaceX return two NASA astronauts, Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, from the International Space Station (ISS) “as soon as possible.” The astronauts, who arrived in June on Boeing’s Starliner for a short test flight, have had their stay repeatedly extended due to a malfunction in Starliner’s propulsion system. While SpaceX is already scheduled to bring them back in late March, Trump and Musk criticized the Biden administration, claiming the astronauts had been “abandoned” in space. NASA, however, has emphasized that they are not stranded and are in good health, with their extended stay falling within normal mission durations. NASA’s delay in returning the astronauts is tied to crew rotations and station staffing concerns. New York Times Reuters NPR The Hill 

Dutch chip firm ASML sees flood of orders amid AI boom. ASML reported fourth-quarter bookings of €7.09 billion, far exceeding the expected €3.99 billion, driven by AI demand. Despite a recent chip stock selloff due to DeepSeek’s efficiency breakthrough, ASML shares surged 11% to €722. CEO Christophe Fouquet reaffirmed AI as the industry's key growth driver. ASML posted €2.7 billion in net income on €9.3 billion in sales. The U.S. became its top market at 28%, slightly ahead of China. The company maintained its 2025 sales forecast of €30-35 billion, with China’s share expected to drop due to U.S. and Dutch export restrictions. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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