THE OPEN SOURCE REPORT

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security and delivers it to your inbox M-F.  Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas...

US Set to Send Abrams Tanks to Ukraine.  The US is reportedly finalizing plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  Officials say Washington could send at least 30 of the tanks, but that it may not make the deliveries until the fall.  Reports on the US decision to send the advanced Abram main battle tank come as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Berlin would facilitate the transfer of its Leopard II tanks to Ukraine.  The Russian ambassador to the US called Washington’s promise of Abrams tanks another provocation.  CNN Washington Post

Classified Documents Found at Former VP Pence’s House.  Documents marked classified were found at the Indiana home of former Vice President Mike Pence last week.  Pence’s attorney said in letters to the National Archives that the classified records have been turned over to the FBI.  The attorney added that the documents were found after Pence ordered a review of his records “out of an abundance of caution” after classified records were found in President Joe Biden’s residence.  CNN New York Times Reuters

Blinken Expected to Discuss Suspected Chinese Support for Russia’s Ukraine War in Upcoming Trip to China.  State Department spokesman Ned Price says that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to discuss suspected reports of Chinese companies aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine, when he travels to Beijing next month.  Price said he could not confirm recent reports from CNN and Bloomberg that some US officials have already confronted Beijing with evidence, Price did say that there is obviously “close synergy” between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) government and companies operating out of China, and that the US would be ‘concerned’ if there was in fact support being provided to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.  South China Morning Post 

US House Speaker Reportedly Planning Taiwan Trip.  Several media outlets report that the Pentagon is preparing for a potential visit by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to Taiwan in the spring.  Observers say that the trip will anger Beijing, but that China will not react as severely as it did to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year.  Analysts predict milder, targeted military drills in response and say that a McCarthy visit will do little to change long-term interests in improving US-China relations.  South China Morning Post  Politico

Xi Jinping Addresses Latin America Summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit on Tuesday where he vowed to take China’s relationship with CELAC countries to a ‘new era’.  The event, held in Argentina’s capital of Buenos Aires, included participation from Brazil and Venezuela, two countries with the closest ties to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.  Some estimates suggest that Beijing could become the region’s largest trading partner, surpassing the US by 2035.  South China Morning Post 

Western Europe

Germany to Send Leopard II Tanks to Ukraine, Approve Other Countries’ Deliveries.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Wednesday that Berlin will send 14 Leopard II main battle tanks to Ukraine.  Scholz also said Berlin will approve requests by other countries to re-export their Leopards to Kyiv with the goal of quickly forming two tank battalions for Ukraine.  The decision comes after weeks of urging by Ukraine and other NATO members for Berlin to approve the tank transfers.  Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration, said the tanks will boost Ukraine’s military strength and be a “punching fist” for democracy.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said transfers of Leopard tanks to Ukraine will leave a long-term mark on German-Russian relations.  Deutsche Welle Reuters Washington Post

NATO Chief Says Alliance to Raise Defense Spending Target.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told German newspaper Die Welt that he expects alliance members will agree to raise defense spending targets above the current goal of 2% national output.  He said the change will likely come at a July summit, adding that the 2% target was originally going to be for the whole decade but now needs to be updated as NATO members realize the importance of military investment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russian Frigate Armed with Hypersonic Missiles Tests in Atlantic.  The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which is armed with Zircon hypersonic missiles, tested strike capabilities in the Atlantic Ocean.  The ministry said the frigate ran a computer simulation on the missiles but did not say if it fired any. Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed the frigate in early January for such tests.  The Admiral Gorshkov will participate in joint drills with South Africa and China in late February.  CNBC Reuters

Ukraine Drafts Defense Transparency Bill.  Ukraine’s ruling party drafted a bill on Tuesday to increase transparency in defense procurement.  The bill will require prices paid for products and services for the army to be published, though the requirement will not apply to arms purchases.  The measure comes after Ukraine’s Defense Ministry was accused of overspending on an army food contract as part of a series of corruption allegations against the Ukrainian government.  Reuters

Asia

Pyongyang Under Lockdown Over Unspecified Respiratory Illness.  South Korean media outlet NK News reports that North Korean authorities have ordered a five-day lockdown of the capital Pyongyang due to rising cases of an unspecified respiratory illness.  North Korean authorities did not mention Covid-19 or say if other parts of the country are in lockdown.  North Korea reported its first Covid-19 cases only last year and then claimed in August it had won over the virus.  Reuters 

Chinese Military Magazine Report Highlights Potential Use of Chinese Drones in War with Taiwan.  A Chinese military magazine is out with a new report that analyzes how drones may be used by Beijing in a conflict with Taiwan.  The report in Ordnance Industry Science Technology says that in a conflict with Taiwan, China’s military would seek to suppress Taiwan’s military from multiple areas and that drones would be critical and used to ‘assassinate enemy leaders’ and also target other critical capabilities of Taiwan’s military.  The report also said that China’s long-range surveillance and reconnaissance drone capability would be used to support a massive blockade around Taiwan extending to the ‘second island chain’, a large and strategically important group of islands in the Western Pacific ocean.  South China Morning Post 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israel’s Netanyahu Visits Jordan.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a surprise visit to Jordan on Tuesday.  Netanyahu met Jordanian King Abdullah to discuss regional issues and ways to strengthen economic and security cooperation between their countries.  King Abdullah reportedly raised concerns over Palestine and reiterated the need to maintain the status quo at the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.  King Abdullah also reportedly told Netanyahu that an end to violence was a crucial point in resuming peace talks between Israel and Palestine.  Reuters cites officials as saying that Abdullah also plans a US visit at the end of the month for meetings, including potentially with US President Joe Biden to discuss tensions in Jerusalem and other regional issues of concern.  Al Jazeera Bloomberg Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Rwanda Fires at Congolese Military Aircraft.  Rwanda’s military fired at least one missile at a fighter jet from the Democratic Republic of Congo that allegedly crossed into Rwandan airspace on Tuesday.  The Congolese government confirmed that the plane returned to the DRC undamaged but said that Rwanda’s actions amounted to an act of war.  The incident is the latest show of escalating tensions between the two neighbors.  Associated Press Reuters 

Uganda Begins Drilling at Key Oil Field.  Uganda has begun oil drilling at the Chinese-operated Kingfisher oil field in the western Kikuube district.  Officials plan to both start oil production and complete a pipeline from the field to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania by 2025.  Activists and the EU have raised concerns about the effects on the environment and possible displacement of people from the oil field and pipeline.  Associated Press

Cyber & Tech

Microsoft Cloud Suffers Global Outages.  A networking outage interrupted Microsoft’s cloud platform Azure and Teams and Outlook services around the world on Wednesday morning.  A status page for Azure showed that services in America, Europe, parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East.  Reportedly only China and its government networks were not affected.  Microsoft says all cloud services have since been restored.  The tech giant said earlier it detected a network connectivity issue on the Microsoft Wide Area Network and later said it rolled back a network change that may have caused the issue.  Reuters

International Counter-Ransomware Task Force Begins Work.  An international counter-ransomware task force has officially started work according to the Australian government which is the inaugural chair of the effort.  The group, known as the International Counter Ransomware Task Force’s (ICRTF) will coordinate efforts among 36 member countries and the European Union.  The group was announced in November following a 2-day conference sponsored by the Biden administration.  The Record 

China Leads on Global Patent Race But Lacking Innovation in Key Areas.  South China Morning Post reports that China’s patent-intensive industry produces more intellectual property than any country in the world.  While the success of the industry, which accounts for 12.4 percent of China’s GDP, is an indicator of strong economic growth and technological advancement, the report qualifies that it still is relatively behind the US and EU in terms of contributions to the wider economy.  Experts say that for China to catch up, Beijing must work to attract overseas talent and invest in innovation in key areas including artificial intelligence and semiconductors.  South China Morning Post

AI Task Force Proposes New Federal AI Research Organization.  A new report from the National AI Research Resource recommends establishing a federal research organization that pools resources and cyber infrastructure to democratize and advance Artificial Intelligence (AI) development.  The report advises that this new entity initially work with existing AI research partners rather than establish its own research centers and estimates that the effort will cost $750 million every two years over an initial six-year period, followed by around $60 million to $70 million per year to maintain operations.  TechCrunch

DOD Lacks Resources for Sufficient Cyber Red Teaming Against Adversaries.  A new report from the Pentagon’s Office of the Director, Test & Evaluation (DOT&E) says that DOD is falling behind in cyber test and assessment capabilities and cites a lack of resources, including personnel shortfalls as the key reason.  The report says that US adversaries such as Russia and China are devoting significant resources toward offensive cyber operations targeting the US and that the DOD needs additional resources to be able to assess and train against those threats.  The report calls for changes to Pentagon policy to better attract and retain talent, who are leaving for more lucrative private sector opportunities.  DOT&E’s cyber assessment program is a congressionally mandated program that uses exercises and red teaming to prepare for nation state cyber adversarial threats.  Defense Scoop

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