Report for Wednesday, January 24, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Turkish Parliament Votes to Ratify Sweden’s Entry Into NATO.

Israeli military says it has surrounded Khan Younis

U.S. launches airstrikes against Houthi missiles in Yemen, Iran-backed militias in Iraq

Russia accuses Ukraine of downing plane transporting Ukrainian POWs

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Plan for one-month Gaza truce makes progress. Sources tell Reuters that Israel and Hamas have made progress toward agreement on a 30-day ceasefire during which the two sides would release detainees and more humanitarian aid would be allowed to enter Gaza. But the sources also said Hamas continues to insist that an agreement on how to end the war must be decided as part of any ceasefire deal. Israeli spokesperson Eylon Levy said yesterday there will be no ceasefire that leaves Hamas in power, and the White House reiterated the U.S. position that Hamas cannot be a part of Gaza’s future government. Reuters

Israeli military says it has surrounded Khan Younis.  The Israeli military called the southern Gaza town a “significant stronghold” for Hamas. It claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas fighters over the previous 24 hours, according to the New York Times. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society complained that Israeli forces had besieged the entire Khan Younis district, preventing injured people from getting to hospitals.  Israeli military officials said areas occupied by civilians had been marked and the soldiers were being told to “mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals.” New York Times

Egyptian mediators say Hamas may consider releasing all women, children hostages.  In exchange, Hamas wants a longer pause in fighting.The feeler announced by Egyptian mediators would represent a change in position for Hamas, which has been holding out for a comprehensive agreement leading to a permanent end to the war. Neither Israel nor Hamas commented on the Egyptian statement.   Wall Street Journal

Thousands Cannot Leave Gazan Hospital Despite Evacuation Order, Aid Group Says.  Doctors Without Borders said on Tuesday that staff members, 850 patients and thousands of others sheltering on the grounds of the Nassar Hospital in Khan Younis were unable to comply with an evacuation order by the Israeli military because roads were either inaccessible or too dangerous. The Israeli order also included the Al-Amal Hospital and a field hospital set up by Jordan. The U.N. humanitarian affairs office said the three hospitals account for one-fifth of the remaining operational hospital facilities in Gaza and that the area covered by the evacuation area held approximately 88,000 residents and 425,000 displaced people in an area of about 1.5 square miles.  New York Times

Were Israeli troops sitting ducks? Israeli military promises “in-depth” probe of its bloodiest day.  Some 21 reservists were killed Monday in a single explosion while rigging two Gaza buildings with about 20 mines to demolish them and create a “buffer space” between Gaza and Israel. According to the Times of Israel, quoting IDF officials, Hamas fighters fired a rocket-propelled grenade from only a “few dozen meters” from the buildings. The mines detonated, causing the buildings to collapse with soldiers inside and nearby. “The loss of 21 IDF soldiers in a single incident proves the danger of ground operations involving large quantities of explosives,” said an analysis in the left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz. “It also calls into question the merit of creating a buffer zone on the border.” Yonah Jeremy Bob, the conservative Jerusalem Post's senior military correspondent, wondered if rising Israeli military casualties “temporarily gives those wanting a deal that returns the hostages and ends the war, even if Hamas is not dismantled, the upper hand in the debate.” New York Times   The Telegraph Times of Israel  Haaretz  Jerusalem Post

UN chief warns that Israel’s rejection of a two-state solution threatens global peace.  U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres said on Tuesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state will prolong the Mideast conflict indefinitely, threaten world peace, and embolden extremists everywhere. He said the risk of conflict spreading has become a reality, and he cited Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Pakistan as examples. Guterres also reiterated his call for a ceasefire in Gaza, and welcomed reports that Israel is proposing a two-month pause in the fighting in exchange for the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas.Israeli U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan said the Security Council should focus on Iran, which he said was at the root of the conflict, providing weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.  Associated Press Bloomberg

UK’s Cameron to Visit Middle East to Push for Gaza Ceasefire.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron will go to the Middle East this week to urge a sustainable ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The U.K. Foreign Office said that during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he will call for more to be done to increase the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and will express concern about the high number of civilian casualties there. Cameron also will meet with leaders of the Palestinian territories, Qatar and Turkey.  Bloomberg

THE RED SEA

U.S. conducts additional strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.  U.S. forces conducted strikes on two Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen early Wednesday.  U.S. Central Command said the missiles were prepared to launch at vessels in the Red Sea and were destroyed in “self-defense.” The latest strikes come amid growing concerns among a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers about the legality of the attacks, noting the lack of congressional authorization for U.S. military action against the Houthis or to protect non-U.S. ships in the Red Sea.  CENTCOM Reuters Defense News 

U.S. calls on China to urge Iran to curb Houthi attacks in Red Sea.  U.S. officials say that Washington has asked China to urge Iran to reign in Yemen’s Houthi rebels’ attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.  The Financial Times reports that U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have raised the matter with Chinese counterparts over the last three months.  However, officials say they have seen no results, doubting that Beijing has pressured Tehran on the issue besides releasing a mild statement last week.  Financial Times Reuters

ANALYSIS — Iranian military technology, advisors aiding Houthi attacks.  Iran is sending increasingly sophisticated weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, enhancing their capability to attack vessels in the Red Sea.  Western officials and analysts highlight Tehran’s provision of drone jammers, long-range rocket and missile parts, as well as assistance from Iranian and Hezbollah advisers. Iran says that it has no involvement in Houthi operations and that the group is responding to the war in Gaza. Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, head of the Navy’s 5th Fleet, has accused Iran of being “very directly involved” in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Cooper stopped short of accusing Tehran of directing specific attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, but he noted an expansion in Iran-linked attacks in the area and wider region.  Wall Street Journal

“[This] seems to blow up the conventional analytic thinking (that drives me nuts) that a) Iran does not want to escalate and b) Houthis act independently.” Cipher Brief Expert, former CIA Senior Intelligence Service (SIS) Officer Marc Polymeropoulos X

“[Polymeropoulos], as usual, has this exactly right. He and I have been saying from the beginning, this is a classic proxy operation under the full control of Tehran. If the Iranians cannot control their proxies we are going to have to begin to inflict real pain on them.” Cipher Brief Expert Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis X

Cipher Brief Expert General (Ret) Jack Keane calls for the international community to isolate Iran.

ANALYSIS — How the Houthis have become a nimble U.S. foe.  The U.S. faces challenges in targeting and countering the Houthis in Yemen due to the group's adept use of irregular warfare tactics and mobile weapons, perfected in the group’s years-long conflict against a Saudi-led coalition. The Houthis have been so effective that U.S. Marines have been challenged to employ similar tactics, such as by adapting Houthi-inspired mobile radar systems in the Baltic Sea.  Efforts to curb the Houthis’ ability to target ships in the Red Sea are further complicated by the U.S.’s desire to not inflict major Houthi casualties to avoid being dragged into a prolonged war. Because of this, the U.S. faces limited options, including intercepting weapons shipments, intelligence gathering, or targeting launch sites.  New York Times

Houthis launch global propaganda blitz amid Gaza war.  The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have widened their propaganda to leverage the global attention they have received from their attacks against Israel and ships in the Red Sea.  The group is releasing music videos and conducting social media campaigns to appeal to audiences both within and beyond the Arab world, framing themselves as courageous challengers to Israel and the U.S. amid the war in Gaza. This narrative counters the Houthis’ repressive rule in Yemen, where they tolerate little dissent and disregard human rights, according to rights activists and locals.  New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian missile strikes on Ukraine kill 18, injure over 130.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least 18 people and injured over 130 others.  Zelensky said over 200 sites were hit, including residential areas, and that Russia used around 40 missiles of varying types in the attacks. He vowed a strong response, saying that “the Russian war will inevitably be brought back home, back to where this evil came from, where it must be quelled.”  Reuters Al Jazeera BBC The Guardian

Russia accuses Ukraine of downing plane transporting Ukrainian POWs.  Russia accuses Ukraine of deliberately shooting down a military transport plane carrying 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers en route to a prisoner exchange.  The Russian defense ministry said six Russian crew members and three Russian soldiers were also killed when the Il-76 transport plane was shot down near the city of Belgorod. The ministry called the incident a “terrorist act” that showed the Ukrainian leadership’s disregard for the “lives of its own citizens.” Russian officials alleged the deliberate sabotage of the exchange, arguing that it would be impossible to mistake the transport plane for other military aircraft. Ukrainian media initially reported that the plane was carrying S-300 missiles, but later retracted the reporting, saying that the information has not been confirmed. Ukrainian officials said they are investigating the incident.  Reuters Bloomberg New York Times Associated Press 

Make more ammo fast: NATO chief.  NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg  warned yesterday that “increased production of ammunition is an absolute necessity to enable us to continue to provide support to Ukraine.”  The alliance signed a 1.1 billion Euro (($1.2 billion) deal to buy ammunition that NATO  members can use for their own forces or pass on to Ukrainian forces. Officials in Kyiv are warning their forces could run out of munitions by the time the US and EU come up with final numbers for military assistance for this year. Ukrainian front line soldiers are rationing munitions. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Monday that Ukrainian commanders face “difficult decisions” because “they don’t know when the next shipment [of weapons] is going to come.”  Financial Times

Former World Bank economist Anne O. Krueger says Western sanctions on Russia failed.  Krueger argues that Russian oil rose to $84.20 per barrel by last November as Russian companies circumvented Western restrictions and India, China, Armenia, Greece, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore serve as “laundromats” for Russian oil and other sanctioned goods. The impact of sanctions dwindles over time, she says, while enforcement costs rise. “Should the Russia sanctions regime significantly erode the dollar’s prominence in international financial markets, the cost to the US and global economies could far exceed its benefits,” Krueger concludes. Kyiv Independent

DOD Secretary Lloyd Austin makes video plea for more Ukraine aid.  During a virtual session with nearly 50 nations’ defense chiefs who belong to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Austin urged officials (and Congress) to “dig deep.”  “Our support for Ukraine’s struggle against tyranny makes all of our countries more secure,” Austin said. “If we lose our nerve, if we flinch, if we fail to deter other would-be aggressors, we will only invite even more bloodshed and more chaos.” Bloomberg

Ukraine says allies to send more long-range weapons.  Ukrainian defense officials said at the 18^th Ramstein summit on Tuesday that allies will send more long-range weapons to allow Ukraine to hit Russian targets on the front line and in the rear, as well as destroy Russian logistics hubs.  Ukraine has so far used U.S.-provided ATACMS and U.K.-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to hit Russian targets deep behind front lines.  Besides long-range weapons, the summit also covered strengthening Ukraine’s other capabilities through aviation, air defense, artillery, and maritime security coalitions.  Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also stressed the need for “innovation and significant technological progress” to progress on the front line.  Kyiv Independent 

Germany announces plans to give Ukraine six “Sea King” military helicopters. Germany announced plans to send six "Sea King" military helicopters to Ukraine, marking the first delivery of military equipment from Germany to Ukraine. The helicopters are expected to be delivered in the second quarter of this year and will assist Ukraine in various tasks, including surveillance of the Black Sea and troop transportation. Germany and France have jointly led the coalition for air defense capabilities in Ukraine since November.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

Canada to provide Ukraine with new $20 million military aid package. Canada will provide Ukraine with 10 multi-engine inflatable boats, equipped with advanced sensor, navigation, and communication systems. The package, reportedly worth $20 million also includes training for Ukrainian operators, trailers, and spare parts, with delivery expected by late spring 2024. Additionally, Canada will offer civilian instructors, planes, and support staff for Ukraine's F-16 Training Coalition efforts, valued at approximately $15 million, starting in February 2024. Canada has been providing significant military assistance to Ukraine, with a total exceeding $7.5 billion since the beginning of 2022. Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Ukraine and Israel both need 155mm artillery shells. Can the U.S. meet demand?  The 155mm shell is the most requested artillery munition by Ukraine in its war with Russia, and Israel also uses it in its war with Hamas. Military officials estimate that Ukraine needs 200,000 a month to remain on par with Russia, and the U.S. capacity is approximately 28,000. Since the war in Gaza began, the U.S. also has sent 57,000 155mm shells to Israel, but Israel does not rely on the munition as heavily as does Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies are ramping up production. Since 2022, the U.S. has awarded almost $25 billion in contracts to supply Ukraine with the shells and replenish U.S. stocks. Army officials say they hope to increase production to 80,000 a month by 2025. Kyiv announced in December an agreement with two American firms to produce shells jointly in Ukraine, but production there won’t start for at least two years. Military experts with the defense intelligence firm Jane’s say the 155mm shell is popular because it balances range, warhead size and damage inflicted. It can be configured in many ways – packed with highly explosive material, for example – and can be equipped with precision-guided systems. NATO officials say that since the war in Ukraine began, the price of a standard shell has increased dramatically, quadrupling to roughly $8,400, but it is still a much less expensive option than a missile, which can cost millions of dollars. Major producers are experimenting with increasing the shell’s range. Boeing, in collaboration with Norway’s Nammo, is working on the Ramjet shell, which could travel up to 90 miles – six times the range of the standard shell.  Wall Street Journal

Officials from five nations dismantle Dutch smuggling network linked to Russia.  Dutch authorities have arrested three individuals as part of an investigation into an international network that allegedly worked to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. The arrests followed raids at 14 locations across multiple countries. The suspects, two men and a woman, are accused of involvement in illegal exports of technological and laboratory equipment that could have military applications, in violation of EU sanctions. The network revolved around a Dutch-registered company established in 2017. The European Union has imposed various sanctions on Russia in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent Associated Press Ukrinform

Zelensky creates business council following arrest of banker.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has established a council to support entrepreneurship following outrage over the arrest of a prominent banker. Zelensky's decree formed the council, aiming to provide economic security and stability during wartime. The council comprises well-known business figures from various sectors, tasked with strengthening the economy and ensuring clarity with law enforcement agencies. Business leaders expressed concerns over the detention of banker Ihor Mazepa, who was released on bail after allegations related to land acquisition and criticism of law enforcement bodies. Reuters Kyiv Independent

Kremlin may allow some anti-war opposition to frame Russian presidential election as referendum on war.  The Kremlin may allow some anti-war opposition in Russia's presidential election to frame the outcome as a "positive referendum" on the war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Boris Nadezhdin, a former Russian parliamentarian who denounces Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is being considered as a candidate to funnel opposition votes. Nadezhdin's campaign emphasizes peace, civil society, and cooperation with European countries, in contrast to Putin's policies. The move aims to provide a semblance of choice while ensuring Putin's re-election. Putin seeks a fifth term in the March 2024 election, widely expected to win. Kyiv Independent ISW

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Trudeau sees rocky road for Canada if Trump wins White House bid. "We don't know exactly what he'll do ... obviously, Mr. Trump represents a certain amount of unpredictability," Trudeau told reporters in Montreal. Canada sends three-quarters of its exports to the United State. If U.S. embraces protectionism, Canada will suffer.  Reuters Associated Press

Pentagon greenlights limited production of B-21 Raider stealth bomber.  William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said he approved low-rate production for the Northrop Grumman-made stealth bomber last fall after ground and flight tests. The Air Force wants at least 100 B-21 Raiders, to replace the aging B-1B Lancer and B-2 Spirit sometime in the 2030s, and become part of a planned two-bomber fleet along with 76 upgraded B-52J Stratofortresses. The Raider is designed to use stealth capabilities to carry out penetrating deep strike missions. It can transport both conventional and nuclear weapons. Defense News

Upgraded F-35 deliveries slipping to fall 2024, Lockheed says.  Lockheed Martin's production of the latest upgraded F-35 Joint Strike Fighters is facing delays, and deliveries may not resume until the third quarter of 2024. The company plans to deliver between 75 and 110 F-35s this year, fewer than its typical annual goal of around 150. The delays are due to the integration of Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) upgrades, including software and hardware improvements. TR-3 is crucial to prepare the F-35 for further upgrades, known as Block 4, which enhance its capabilities. Lockheed Martin is working to resolve the issues, but the delays have affected the company's sales and profitability.  Defense News

Violence in Costa Rica prompts officials to consider draconian Salvadoran solutions. Costa Rica is experiencing a surge in violence, prompting President Rodrigo Chaves to introduce tough legislation to combat crime. Chaves has looked to El Salvador's approach as a reference, seeking to cut a soaring homicide rate. Analysts say his measures could include increasing jail sentences for minors, allowing extraditions, and extending preventive detention. Such an approach would mark a significant shift for Costa Rica, which has traditionally taken a gentler approach to crime prevention. The rise in homicides has been driven by gang warfare among cocaine traffickers and social discontent which began during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chaves' planned efforts are already facing opposition but are being driven by concerns over security and the risk to the country’s tourism. Reuters

OPINION — Loose lips can still sink ships: Protect your Critical Information.  Director of the Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) Michael C. Casey writes in The Cipher Brief about how operations security (OPSEC) has become more challenging in the digital age. He discusses the importance of securing critical information, in both the national security community and in all sectors of the economy, and suggests steps organizations can take to achieve robust OPSEC.  The Cipher Brief

Asia and Oceania

China’s spy agency goes public.  China's Ministry of State Security (MSS), its top spy agency, is running dramatic ads, conducting social media campaigns and launching a comedy series showcasing its role in fighting "subversion, separatism, terrorism, and espionage." Analysts say the President Xi Jinping’s focus on security has elevated the MSS’s political stature, at a time when China is taking a broader view of security encompassing data, technology, and environmental issues.  Financial Times

China revising regulations on military legislation.  China will implement revised regulations on military legislation from March 1, according to state news agency Xinhua. President Xi Jinping — who heads the Central Military Commission, the top decision-making and command body of the Chinese military — signed an order for the changes to standardize working systems and strengthen military governance in line with his strategy of "running the military in accordance with the law." The revision sets out basic principles, legislative authorities, and specific legislative procedures pertaining to the military. The move follows recent regulations on military transport and force projection aimed at promoting military modernization.  South China Morning Post

China takes ‘counterterrorism’ measures in Hong Kong, Xinjiang.  Beijing has issued a white paper touting its tougher counterterrorism in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. It pledged to use “counterterrorism technologies to meet the challenges of artificial intelligence, encrypted communication and virtual currency, according to the South China Morning Post.  South China Morning Post

U.S. congressional delegation visits Taiwan in post-election show of support.  U.S. Congressional Taiwan Caucus co-chairs, Reps. Ami Bera and Mario Díaz-Balart, embarked on the first trip by U.S. lawmakers to Taiwan after the island’s recent election. The visit aims to reaffirm U.S. support for Taiwan, express solidarity in democratic values, and explore opportunities to strengthen economic and defense ties. China strongly opposes official U.S.-Taiwan contact and views such visits as recognition of Taiwan's sovereignty.  Associated Press Reuters Barron's Japan Times Bloomberg

Taiwan president-elect signals desire to join US-led trade framework.  Taiwan's president-elect, Lai Ching-te, expressed the desire for Taipei to join the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, emphasizing the island's crucial role in the global economy. Although Taiwan was initially excluded from the framework, the U.S. established the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade. Lai sees this initiative, along with existing structures, as a basis for Taiwan's future participation in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. The move could heighten tensions with China, which opposes Taiwan’s participation in international frameworks.  Reuters

China rebuts Vietnam's claims to disputed South China Sea islands.  The Chinese foreign ministry reiterated its historical claims to the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in response to Vietnam's assertion of sovereignty over the islands. Vietnam stated it has "full legal basis and ample historical evidence" to assert sovereignty over the islands, while China maintains that its claims are supported by history and jurisprudence, emphasizing its role in discovering, naming, developing, and managing the islands. Multiple countries have competing claims in the South China Sea, including Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei, leading to regional tensions.  Reuters

Philippines vows defense of resource exploration, exploitation.  Philippines Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Tuesday that the Philippines armed forces will guarantee “unimpeded and peaceful” exploration and exploitation of natural resources within the country’s exclusive economic zone.  He added that Manila will “increase the tempo” of activities with allies and partners in the South China Sea and other areas as part of its focus on external defense.  His comments come amid heightened tensions with China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.  Reuters Associated Press 

ANALYSIS — Legal analysis of Philippines, China claims over Second Thomas Shoal.  The Philippines and China have recently had many dangerous encounters around the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines maintains the shoal as a military post, while China claims sovereignty over the area. From an international law perspective, the Arbitral Tribunal under UNCLOS ruled in 2016 that the shoal is a low-tide elevation (LTE) that is within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines.  This ruling affirms the Philippines’ sovereignty over the shoal. The legal perspective suggests there is no territorial dispute and that Beijing should respect Philippine sovereignty over the shoal.  CSIS

North Korea fires cruise missiles off its west coast into the Yellow Sea.  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said South Korean and U.S. intelligence are analyzing the launches and are watching for further North Korean military activity.  The launches came as South Korean Navy’s special warfare unit conducted operational readiness training in the eastern Gangwon Province, which borders the North.  Pyongyang recently fired artillery at South Korean border islands and claimed to test a solid-fuel intermediate-range hypersonic missile last month.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Bloomberg

North Korea demolishes monument symbolizing Korean reunification.  NK News, an online outlet that monitors North Korea, said that satellite imagery of Pyongyang shows the Arch of Reunification, which was made after an inter-Korea summit in 2000, is no longer there.  Kim had recently called the monument an “eyesore” when he ordered constitutional changes to designate South Korea as the North’s “primary foe.”  Reuters

ANALYSIS — Image analysis of North Korea’s ‘Northern Nuclear Testing Site.’  The Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted the first open source intelligence analysis of declassified satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Testing Facility. Construction of the facility, identified by North Korea as the “Northern Nuclear Testing Site,” started as early as 1985 as part of nuclear infrastructure expansion.  Imagery from CIA archives show excavations at the facility at this time which became Tunnels No. 1 and No. 2, where North Korea conducted its first six nuclear sites.  The images suggest North Korea’s early nuclear ambitions beyond experimentation and building capabilities as diplomatic bargaining chips.  CSIS

Europe

Turkish Parliament Approves Sweden’s Entry Into NATO.  Turkey's parliament approved Sweden's accession to NATO, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to give final approval. Turkey initially hesitated to ratify Sweden’s membership bid, seeking action against groups like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara views as a terrorist organization.  Stockholm has since tightened counterterrorism laws and lifted arms export restrictions to Turkey. The move leaves Hungary as the sole holdout to Sweden’s membership. In a potential sign of progress, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has invited his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson to Budapest for negotiations.  Wall Street Journal Bloomberg New York Times Washington Post Associated Press 

“Excellent news from Turkey. Now only Hungary is holding back membership for Sweden in NATO . Hopefully, Budapest will do the right thing shortly. This has taken far longer than it should have. Sweden & Finland will both be superb members of this alliance.” Cipher Brief Expert Admiral (Ret.) James Stavridis X

EU draws up economic security plans, with eye on China.  The European Commission is unveiling plans to enhance the European Union's (EU) economic security by increasing scrutiny of foreign investment and implementing coordinated controls on exports and technology outflows to countries like China. The proposed revision to the law on foreign direct investment screening will require all EU nations to screen foreign investments for security risks, even if controlled by a foreign company, and export controls will be more tightly coordinated, particularly for products with military applications. The move aims to reduce reliance on China and strengthen the EU's competitive position, acknowledging a new geopolitical reality.  Reuters

EU officials urge Bosnia to press ahead with reform in order to start accession negotiations.  The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic urged Bosnia to continue reforms and seize the opportunity to begin EU accession negotiations before the European Parliament vote in June. While Bosnia has made progress, it must do more to secure a positive recommendation from the European Commission in March. EU officials are offering a €6 billion package for Western Balkan countries to encourage reform, with Bosnia potentially receiving €1 billion when it carries out necessary economic reforms. Bosnia still needs to pass reforms related to corruption, judicial reform, and the rule of law. Associated Press

Moldova's foreign minister resigns as country moves towards EU.  Moldova's Prime Minister Dorin Recean has appointed Mihai Popsoi as the new foreign minister, replacing Nicu Popescu, who resigned. Cristina Gerasimov has been named as the head of the newly created Bureau for European Integration. Moldova, led by pro-European president Maia Sandu, received approval from the EU in December to open negotiations to join the bloc, a process that involves numerous reforms. Popescu, who served as foreign minister since 2021, resigned to spend more time with his family. Popsoi and Gerasimov will start their roles next week, and their appointments require Sandu's approval.  Reuters

Middle East

U.S. launches airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the strikes — conducted in response to attacks by Iranian-backed militias against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria — targeted three facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and other groups.  U.S. Central Command said the attacks hit KH headquarters, as well as storage and training locations for rocket, missile, and drones.  Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Front operation command said at least one KH fighter was killed.  A KH military spokesman vowed that the group will continue attacks until the war in Gaza ends. The Iraqi prime minister’s office said Baghdad views the strikes as “aggressive actions,” arguing that they violate Iraq’s sovereignty and will lead to “irresponsible escalation.”  Military.com CNN France 24 Associated Press Wall Street Journal Reuters Bloomberg

Syria warns Jordanian air strikes on its soil are unjustified. Syria has denounced Jordanian airstrikes on its territory, stating there is no justification for them. Jordan has increased its campaign against drug traffickers, accusing them of having links to pro-Iranian militias. Last week's airstrike reportedly killed 10 civilians, including children. Jordanian officials claim that the strikes followed warnings given to Syrian officials in high-level meetings. They argue that pro-Iranian militias are responsible for drug and weapons smuggling from southern Syria and maintain that Syria needs to take effective measures against those behind these operations. The captagon trade, which is linked to pro-Iranian militias, is a significant concern.  Reuters Associated Press

Iran President visiting Turkey for security talks.  Iranian President Ebrhaim Raisi is meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey on Wednesday to discuss the war in Gaza and cooperation against Kurdish militants, mainly in northern Iraq.  Both sides will also discuss the renewal of an Iranian natural gas export contract that is set to expire in 2026.  Bloomberg

Africa

U.S. pledges $45 million to address West Africa insecurity.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has pledged an additional $45 million in financing to address conflict and instability in coastal West Africa, which has been struggling to counter jihadist insurgencies.  Blinken made the pledge during a four-nation tour of Africa aimed to bolster U.S.-African partnerships.  The new funding supplements the $300 million the U.S. has already invested in the region over the past two years, which Blinken said has gone in part to increased military training and civil protection efforts.  Increased focus on security challenges in West Africa comes in response to recent coups and Russia’s growing influence in the region.  Reuters Associated Press 

U.S. airstrikes in Somalia kill three al-Shabab militants.  The U.S. conducted airstrikes in Somalia on Sunday that killed three al-Shabab militants.  U.S. Africa Command said the Somali government requested the strikes and that they were carried out in a remote area 20 miles northeast of the northeastern port of Kismayo.  ABC News Associated Press 

Iranian drones are latest proxy tool in Sudan’s Civil War.  Iran has reportedly supplied Sudan's army with combat drones, escalating its involvement in the ongoing civil war in Sudan. The conflict, which has already displaced millions, is fueled by various proxy actors vying for control of the Red Sea access, making it a critical geopolitical hotspot. Iran's support for Sudan's military, which has been losing territory to a paramilitary group allegedly backed by the UAE, could further complicate the situation. The drones supplied to Sudan include the Mohajer-6, capable of air-to-surface attacks and electronic warfare. This move may strengthen Iran's influence in the Middle East and its growing drone program, while also potentially pitting it against the UAE. The US has accused Iran of providing similar drones to Russia in the Ukraine conflict.  Bloomberg

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

North American water operator systems hit by ransomware attack.  The North American operations of an international water and wastewater company were affected by a ransomware attack last week.  The Veolia firm, which operates water systems around the world and in all U.S. states, reported that software applications and systems of its North America Municipal Water division were impacted by the breach.  The company reported that its IT and security teams are cooperating with law enforcement and other parties to investigate and recover from the cyber incident.  Delays were caused in customer online payment systems as the company took back-end systems and servers offline.  Veolia said that its North American water and wastewater treatment operations were not disrupted by the ransomware attack although personal information was stolen by the hackers.  No group has claimed responsibility for the breach.  Veolia has not responded to requests for comment about the ransomware group behind the attack.  The Record

U.S., Australia, U.K. sanction malicious Russian hacker behind Medibank attack.  Enforcers from the three nations coordinated an initiative to blacklist Alexander Ermakov, a 33-year-old Russian who launched a ransomware attack in 2022 against Medibank Private Limited, a major Australian healthcare insurer. Australian officials said the hack stole data of f 9.7 million Medibank users.  Treasury.gov State.gov The Record The Guardian

Draft executive order to set restrictions on foreign access to personal data holdings.  A draft executive order (EO) is in the works to put in place data transfer restrictions that will protect Americans’ highly sensitive personal data as well as U.S. government employees.  The Biden administration EO will authorize the Justice and Homeland Security departments to establish protections against foreign adversaries by restricting access to citizens’ genetic, location, and other information that is available through data brokers, third-party vendors, and employment agreements.  The draft EO reportedly is justified on national security grounds and will be issued “soon.”  The document highlights the threats of espionage, cyberattacks, and blackmail that could arise from exploitation of sensitive data by “countries of concern.”  It also points to the potential for AI techniques to be used against multiple data resources to identify individuals with links to the Federal Government that would not be revealed in a single dataset.  The National Security Council declined to comment on the draft EO examined by Bloomberg.  Bloomberg

ANALYSIS — Inflection AI CEO proposes ‘containment strategy’ for AI development.  Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI, writes in Foreign Affairs that an approach akin to the Cold War’s “containment strategy” needs to be adopted to capitalize on and protect against excesses of artificial intelligence.  Suleyman notes that a precursor to artificial general intelligence (AGI), which he calls “artificial capable intelligence (ACI,” will be able to perform tasks autonomously and will represent a “seismic step” in the technology’s evolution.  He says it will “proliferate rapidly and irreversibly.”  ACI will transform healthcare, education, and energy sectors, but also will introduce unprecedented dangers and risks, especially in disinformation, labor disruptions, and massive cyberattacks.  Consequently, a containment strategy that draws on regulation, technical safety standards, governance and ownership models, cutting-edge engineering, and ethical norms needs to be developed.  The goal of this approach would be to establish “a set of interlinked and mutually reinforcing technical, cultural, legal, and political mechanisms for maintaining societal control of AI.”  Foreign Affairs

Organizational success in reducing system flaws prompting new hacker approaches.  The increased securing by organizations of major Internet-facing infrastructure, such as Citrix and Exchange environments, may cause a drop in ransomware gangs’ focus on exploiting critical security flaws.  A new report from Symantec suggests that threat actor attacks against zero-day vulnerabilities may decline in 2024 as hackers are forced to reconfigure malicious tactics and tools.  The report notes that unless another major vulnerability emerges in these environments, ransomware gangs will shift to botnets to conduct attacks.  However, as the last year proved, law enforcement has become more adept in countering this threat, taking down some of the world’s most prolific malicious botnets.  The report also notes that “hackers will adapt to the tools that are available in your network."   Therefore, experts advise that organizations align defenses against threat actor tools and tactics instead of concentrating on specific ransomware strains in use.  Axios

UK issues draft cyber ‘code of practice’ urging strengthened corporate defenses.  The British government has issued a draft Code of Practice that describes “key actions” to be taken by corporate executives in strengthening organizational cyber resilience.  Feedback on the code from private sector leaders has been invited until March 19.  The government has called on business leaders to “toughen up” cyber defenses and to recognize cyber threats as business risks equal to financial and legal challenges.  The code follows a UK government survey that revealed “insufficient director involvement” in cybersecurity matters.  A key provision of the code is ensuring organizations “have detailed plans in place to respond to and recover from any potential cyber incidents.”  The government said the code would be voluntary without statutory requirements, adding that it would “support and align with” existing regulations.  The Record

Chinese scientists see new high-strength ceramic material use in aerospace sector.  Chinese scientists at Guangzhou University’s materials science school claim to have developed a porous ceramic material well suited to aerospace applications, including hypersonic aircraft.  The developed ceramic material, the research team says, “shows exceptional dimension and strength retention up to 2,000 degrees Celsius [3,600 Fahrenheit], making it suitable for use in extreme conditions.”  In addition, the material performed well on insulation and thermal stability tests, retaining 98.5 percent of room temperature strength even at 1,500 degrees.  Study leader Chu Yanhui said the ceramic’s “multiscale” design led to its high performance mechanical and thermal properties.  Zhuang Lei, a co-corresponding author, explained that the material could have broad use in the aerospace, energy and chemical engineering sectors.  South China Morning Post

Israeli unit testing new technologies in Gaza tactical setting.  Israel’s testing of emerging technologies at the tactical level has proved productive in the current Gaza campaign, according to the Israel Defense Force (IDF) Multidimensional Unit.  An IDF officer identified only as Maj. R told an interviewer that “we have executed what we have been training on, and I can tell you it works.”  In mid-January, the IDF said that the Multidimensional Unit had been activated for the first time in a ground operation.  The unit’s use of advanced drones and other technologies to identify targets and direct fire has led to successful operations against anti-tank missile positions and in locating terrorist enclaves and weaponry.  Maj. R explained that the unit’s use of new technology such as smart mortars and small surveillance and attack drones results in assessments and recommendations on their integration into battlefield plans.  Tactical testing of this sort could lead to judgments that the technologies need more work, or require additional training, or can be deployed immediately to other units.  Another member described the unit’s approach: “we get it [new technology] first, and we make sure it is viable in the field.”  BreakingDefense

UK’s GCHQ warns that AI will lead to rise in cyberattacks.  The UK's GCHQ spy agency has warned that the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) tools will likely lead to an increase in cyberattacks since it will help lower the barrier of entry for less sophisticated hackers. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), part of GCHQ, said in a report that generative AI tools, such as chatbots, could be used to create more convincing phishing campaigns, while state-backed hackers may harness AI's potential for advanced cyber operations.  The report added that AI will likely contribute to the global rise in ransomware attacks. The report also suggests that the impact of AI on the cyber threat will be uneven, with opportunistic hackers benefitting the most.  Reuters

North Korea's AI development raises concerns, report says.  North Korea is actively developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning capabilities for various purposes, including responding to COVID-19, safeguarding nuclear reactors, wargaming simulations, and government surveillance, according to a study by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Despite international sanctions potentially limiting access to AI hardware, North Korea is pursuing the latest technology and collaborating with foreign scholars, including those in China. The country established the Artificial Intelligence Research Institute in 2013 and has applied AI in areas such as evaluating mask usage during the COVID-19 pandemic and nuclear reactor safety. Concerns exist about its wargaming simulations and collaborations with foreign scholars violating sanctions.  Reuters

Cybersecurity experts warn of new vulnerabilities affecting Apple, Atlassian and Fortra products. Multiple new vulnerabilities have been exploited by hackers in recent days, raising concerns among experts about cybercriminals and nation states using them. Vulnerabilities affecting tech giants like Apple, VMware, Atlassian, Fortra, and Apache have been highlighted by cybersecurity experts and government agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Apple announced the first zero-day vulnerability of 2024 (CVE-2024-23222), allowing hackers to execute code on iPhones and iPads. CISA ordered all federal civilian agencies to patch the bug by February 13. On the same day, researchers raised alarms about a vulnerability affecting Fortra's GoAnywhere file transfer software. The Record

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

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