Report for Wednesday, January 22, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Trump praises Zelensky’s desire for peace, calls Putin smart but disrespectful

Trump delays China tariffs, hints at friendly visit to Beijing

EU's Kallas: Russia is posing an existential threat to our security

Hamas' control over Gaza could muddle plans for lasting peace

White House announces $500 billion private sector investment in AI infrastructure

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Expert Q&A: Understanding the New Russia-Iran “Strategic Partnership.  Russian President Vladimir Putin received his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Moscow Friday to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.” Putin called the agreement a “real breakthrough.”  Russian and Iranian officials boasted that the treaty will bring Moscow and Tehran closer via trade, military cooperation, education and culture. How hopeful, or ominous, is that?  Who better to judge than Paul Kolbe, who was a CIA operations officer in Russia, East German, the Balkans and other nations for years25, then directed The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and BP’s Global Intelligence and Analysis team.  Kolbe pronounces the deal “underwhelming,” since Russia and Iran have supported each other for decades. The fanfare ginned up by both nations, he writes, was likely timed to Donald Trump’s inauguration “to project a position of strength and power.” If so, it failed.  “Their mutual defense obligations are limited to agreeing not to help the other sides’ adversary in a conflict,” Kolbe writes.  “So, if Russia were to get into a conflict with NATO or the United States or with Kazakhstan or with whomever, Iran simply then agrees not to help the other party fighting Russia. That’s not particularly a strong defense alliance.” The Cipher Brief 

Pete Hegseth’s Answers to Questions That Weren’t Raised in Public.  Walter Pincus, contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief, has ferreted out what prospective Defense secretary Pete Hegseth has said or written about his and President Donald Trump’s plans for the Pentagon. The Senate Armed Services committee failed to explore Hegseth’s positions on many tricky issues.  For instance: Trump’s notion of an “Iron Dome for America” is, Pincus writes, “a crazy idea.”   Also, Hegseth has suggested that he’s open to increasing the number of deployed U.S. nuclear weapons, now set at 1,550.  Does he really want to build a new generation of nuclear warheads?   What are the risks? How many billions will it cost? Americans have a right to know, and the senators aren’t telling them. That’s where Pincus and The Cipher Brief come in.  The Cipher Brief  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

‘Will President Trump even notice Europe?’ asks Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, urged Europe to bolster its defense capabilities, warning against reliance on the United States under Donald Trump’s presidency. “Will President Trump even notice Europe? Does he see NATO as necessary?” Zelensky asked. Highlighting Europe’s limited influence, Zelensky called for deploying at least 200,000 European troops to Ukraine post-ceasefire to complement Ukraine’s 800,000-strong forces and deter Russia. He endorsed Trump’s proposal for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, emphasizing Europe’s need for unity and stronger security guarantees. Zelensky dismissed Russian demands to downsize Ukraine’s military and criticized Europe’s role as a bystander in negotiations. Financial Times Reuters Politico EU

Trump praises Zelensky’s desire for peace, calls Putin smart but disrespectful. During Tuesday’s news conference in the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump repeated his assertion that Russia would have never launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he had been president. “Russia would have never gone into Ukraine. I had a very strong understanding with (Vladimir) Putin. That would have never, ever happened. He disrespected (ex-President Joe) Biden. Very simple. He disrespects people. He’s smart. He understands. He disrespected Biden,” Trump said. He left open the possibility of sending more weapons to Ukraine, but said that “the European Union should be paying a lot more than they are paying. Because under Biden, we’re in there for $200 billion more. Now it affects them more than it affects us. We have an ocean in between. The European Union should equalize…what are we stupid? I guess the answer is yes. They must think so. But the European Union takes advantage of us tremendously on trade and always have.” He renewed his call on NATO’s 32 members to spend 5% of their GDP on defense and again urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to do more to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. “He’s not done very much on that,” Trump said. “He’s got a lot of power.” He said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “would like to have peace, he’s told me that very strongly, but it takes two to tango.” He repeated that millions of people are being killed in the war, with cities resembling “demolition sites.” He said that “many more people died than you are reporting. I am not blaming you for that. I’m blaming maybe our government for not wanting to release those numbers. Many more people died than what you know about.” Sky News The New Voice of Ukraine 

Trump Suggests New Russia Sanctions If Putin Refuses Ukraine Peace Talks. President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, suggested he would hit Russia with new sanctions if President Vladimir Putin refuses peace talks to end the Ukraine war. “Sounds like it," Trump told reporters when asked about the prospect of additional sanctions if Putin refuses to negotiate. Trump did not offer details on potential new measures. He left open the prospect of additional weapons for Ukraine. He also criticized Putin’s ally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, for doing little to end the war, urging him to “get it settled.” Trump reiterated his intention to speak with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky soon and called for European allies to match U.S. defense aid levels. Analysts believe Putin sees no incentive to halt the fighting despite Russia’s heavy losses, which could put the Kremlin leader on a collision course with Trump. “He should make a deal. I think he’s destroying Russia by not making a deal,” Trump said of Putin. “Russia’s going to be in big trouble.” RFE/RL

Desperate for peace, Ukraine embraces Trump. Ukrainian leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos see Donald Trump’s presidency as a potential breakthrough for ending Russia’s war. Unlike Joe Biden’s measured, crisis-management approach, Trump’s assertiveness fuels optimism for decisive action. President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Trump’s business instincts could pressure Moscow into negotiations, while Kurt Volker calls 2025 a “year of action.” Trump’s unpredictability may require Ukraine to make painful concessions, such as accepting NATO’s closed door and possibly shelving Kyiv’s ambitions to retake the 20 percent of the nation that Russia occupies. However, Ukrainians hope Trump’s energy policies and willingness to impose harsher sanctions on the Kremlin, while keeping military aid flowing to Ukraine, will hasten the end of the war.  Despite divided opinions in Ukraine, Trump is seen by many as a disruptor capable of delivering the certainty and stabilization Biden’s administration lacked. Zelensky has aligned with Trump’s goals, emphasizing Ukraine’s partnership and placing responsibility for continuing the war on Vladimir Putin. Politico EU

Ukraine's NATO prospects depend on Trump, Zelensky says. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine’s NATO membership depends on U.S. President Donald Trump. “If Trump is ready to see Ukraine in NATO, we will be in NATO. If he is not, we will not,” Zelensky said. He identified Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the U.S. as opposing Ukraine’s membership. Reports suggest Trump’s team is exploring a 20-year delay in Ukraine’s accession, paired with arms supplies and European peacekeepers, though Moscow rejects this proposal. Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2022 but awaits formal acceptance. Kyiv Independent

Trump’s Ukraine Envoy Has a Hard Climb to Any Peace Deal. Retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg, appointed by Donald Trump as special envoy to Ukraine, faces skepticism over his ability to secure peace to end Russia’s war. The Kremlin has dismissed Kellogg as a "Cold War relic" and mocked his proposed peace plan as ineffective, calling it a mix of "gingerbread and whips.” Russian media also highlighted Kellogg’s pro-Ukraine stance, citing his daughter’s humanitarian work in the region as evidence of bias. Kellogg’s plan, developed with the America First Policy Institute, suggests pausing NATO membership for Ukraine and offering Russia sanctions relief in exchange for a peace agreement. Critics, including John Bolton, doubt Kellogg’s independence, arguing he will follow Trump’s directives, potentially allowing Vladimir Putin to manipulate negotiations. Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that Russia’s attacks signal bleak prospects for meaningful progress. Wall Street Journal

Russia says it sees window of opportunity to negotiate with Trump administration. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Wednesday that Moscow sees “a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one,” to negotiate with President Donald Trump’s administration. Speaking at a Moscow think tank, Ryabkov contrasted Trump’s approach with what he called the “hopelessness” of the Biden administration, emphasizing the need to assess how to maximize opportunities and minimize risks with Washington. Trump, who took office on Monday, has warned of additional sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, though he has provided no specifics. Reuters

Trump’s aid freeze leaves weapons flowing to Ukraine. President Donald Trump froze all U.S. foreign aid for 90 days, but Ukraine’s military assistance remains unaffected. Key programs like the Presidential Drawdown Authority, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and Foreign Military Financing are exempt. However, U.S. Agency for International Development-run reconstruction initiatives, including energy restoration and demining efforts, face uncertainty under the freeze. The Biden administration preemptively secured $50 billion in funds via the World Bank, backed by interest on frozen Russian assets, insulating Ukraine’s budget. Nonetheless, the freeze disrupts civil society and journalism funding, raising questions about U.S. long-term support for rebuilding Ukraine. Trump’s order will review foreign aid for alignment with U.S. goals. Russell T. Vought, Trump’s nominee for budget chief, has avoided committing to future military aid. While the U.S. remains Ukraine’s top donor, Trump’s skepticism of aid and emphasis on greater European contributions may mean less U.S. aid for Ukraine. Politico EU

In Davos, a Ukrainian Billionaire is Fighting for Kyiv’s Cause. Victor Pinchuk, a 64-year-old Ukrainian billionaire and oligarch, is a pivotal advocate for Ukraine's integration into the West. Known for avoiding media attention, he leverages his influence through initiatives like Ukraine House at the World Economic Forum and the Yalta European Strategy (YES), drawing international leaders and celebrities to support Ukraine's cause. Despite his wealth—estimated at $2.3 billion—Pinchuk's assets, including factories in his native Dnipropetrovsk region, are endangered by Russia's war on Ukraine. Pinchuk’s reputation is complex. He gained wealth during Ukraine's post-Soviet privatization and has faced criticism for advocating territorial compromises with Russia. Yet, he is also seen as a bridge-builder, using connections with figures like Donald Trump and employing lobbyists to promote Ukraine’s interests in the U.S. While Ukraine's tycoons adapt to wartime challenges, Pinchuk bolsters his patriotic credentials, organizing aid and cultivating alliances, aiming to secure influence in a transformed, postwar Ukraine. Bloomberg

Ukraine is trying to get its refugees back from Germany. Ukraine is urging its refugees in Germany to return home as the war with Russia approaches its third anniversary. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov announced plans to establish "unity hubs" in Berlin and beyond to assist refugees with job placement, housing, and education. These centers aim to balance support for those staying in Germany with encouraging voluntary repatriation to bolster Ukraine's declining population and workforce. Kyiv is prioritizing workers in reconstruction, energy, and defense, exempting them from military service. Germany has welcomed 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, but mixed opinions persist about their integration and return policies. Politico EU

ANALYSIS–Putin Is Not Yet Desperate. While Russia's economy is strained, it remains capable of sustaining Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Heavy defense spending fuels economic growth through military production and recruitment, but neglect of social services and infrastructure is causing inflation, labor shortages, and a weakening ruble. Rising wages and war-related payments temporarily bolster public support despite growing inequalities. Western hopes that economic pressure will force Russia into negotiations are premature. Putin prioritizes denying Ukraine sovereignty over addressing economic challenges, viewing Kyiv’s independence as a greater threat than financial strain. Structural issues, compounded by sanctions, will likely deepen by 2026, but this timeline requires the West to support Ukraine strongly. The Kremlin is expected to persist in its war-driven policies, using resources to prolong the conflict rather than pursuing peace. While planning for Russia’s eventual economic reckoning, Ukraine's allies must prepare for a prolonged confrontation. Foreign Affairs.

Fighting Alongside Russia, North Koreans Wage Their Own War. North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia’s Kursk region are fighting alongside Moscow’s forces with unique tactics, Ukrainian troops report. Unlike Russian soldiers, North Koreans advance without armored support, rarely retreat, and operate under strict discipline, often sacrificing themselves to avoid capture. Ukrainian forces describe them as “highly motivated” and “very strong,” with one platoon commander saying, “It feels like they came here to die, and they know it.” Deployed since late 2024, approximately half of the 11,000 North Korean troops have been killed or injured. Their presence complicates Ukraine’s defense, forcing adaptations in tactics and mine placement. New York Times

Ukraine's Special Forces say they killed 21 North Korean soldiers, show combat footage. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces reported Wednesday killing 21 and wounding 40 North Korean soldiers during an eight-hour battle in Russia’s Kursk Oblast before retreating. Video footage shows North Korean troops advancing and engaging in close combat. The Ukrainian unit exhausted two-thirds of its ammunition before withdrawing. Russia has deployed 12,000 North Korean soldiers in the region, with 4,000 casualties reported. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 29 over past day. Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day killed at least two people and injured 29, regional authorities said Wednesday. Strikes hit Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Casualties included 10 injured in Kharkiv Oblast, where drone strikes targeted Kupiansk and surrounding areas. In Kherson Oblast, one civilian was killed and 11 injured, while Mykolaiv Oblast saw two injuries and significant residential damage. Over 70 homes were affected in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Apocalypse meow: cat noises ‘lure Russian troops to booby-traps.’ A Russian sapper claimed Ukrainian forces use recordings of cat meows to lure invading soldiers into opening booby-trapped wardrobes and cupboards in eastern Ukraine. The unverifiable statement was made on TV Zvezda, a Russian defense ministry channel. Ukraine has not commented on the claim. Russia, known as a cat-loving nation, reportedly uses cats in trenches to combat rodents and boost morale. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have faced issues with rodents damaging supplies and fortifications. Animal welfare groups report millions of pets abandoned during the war. The conflict has also led to increases in rabies cases and wild animal populations in Ukraine’s Donbas region. The Times

Kyiv court arrests 3 senior officers accused of failed defense of Kharkiv Oblast. A Kyiv court arrested Generals Yurii Halushkin and Artur Horbenko, along with Colonel Illia Lapin, accusing them of negligence during the failed defense of Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024. The Russian offensive advanced several kilometers before stalling near Kharkiv, sparking outrage over poor defense planning. The officers are charged with failing to fortify positions and unauthorized battlefield withdrawals. They face up to 10 years in prison amid broader concerns over military mismanagement. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv court arrests former host of pro-Russian channels Max Nazarov. A Kyiv court has detained former pro-Russian TV host Max Nazarov (real name Nazar Diorditsa) for 60 days on charges of spreading Kremlin propaganda, with bail set at Hr 12 million ($285,000). The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) accused Nazarov of using his platform to justify Russian aggression and war crimes, citing evidence from searches of his home. Nazarov, previously associated with pro-Russian channels Nash and NewsOne, shifted to YouTube after their closures. Nash was linked to wanted pro-Russian politician Yevheniy Muraiev, while NewsOne was tied to Viktor Medvedchuk, who now lives in exile in Russia. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 21. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Jan. 20-21, targeting Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries to degrade military capacity. Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian command posts in the rear, with recent strikes on the 29th Combined Arms Army in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed deepening cooperation in a Jan. 21 phone call. Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexander Khinshtein has failed to address local discontent over Russia's inadequate response to Ukraine's incursion into the region. Russian ultranationalist milbloggers criticized the Ministry of Defense for not holding military command accountable for recent failures.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces regained positions near Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Why Are Western Companies Still Financing Putin’s War?  Agathe Demarais argues that Western companies operating in Russia bolster the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, contributing approximately $16 billion in taxes since 2022—funding resources like missiles and drones. Many companies remain, citing humanitarian concerns or potential future market gains, but Demarais highlights the flawed economics of this stance. Russia controls their revenues, restricts asset sales, and imposes punitive financial conditions, making operations untenable. She contends that moral and economic arguments favor leaving, as staying supports Moscow’s war effort and undermines global sanctions. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Russia’s Energy Squeeze on Moldova. Kurt Volker argues that Russia is leveraging Moldova’s energy dependence to destabilize its pro-Western government. Following Ukraine's cutoff of Russian gas transits, Moldova faces rising electricity costs and blackouts, which Moscow hopes will shift public opinion toward pro-Russian parties ahead of the 2025 elections. Moldova’s structural limitations prevent immediate energy independence, with key EU interconnectors delayed until 2026. Volker advocates for urgent U.S. and European Union support to mitigate the crisis, including financing for alternative energy and gradual consumer price adjustments. Ensuring Moldova’s energy transition aligns with Western interests could diminish Russian influence and secure Moldova’s EU and NATO aspirations. Foreign Policy

Opinion: Trump’s promise of strong US leadership should begin with Ukraine. Arseniy Yatsenyuk urges U.S. President Donald Trump to prioritize supporting Ukraine, arguing that defeating Russian aggression is essential to preserving the international rules-based order. He highlights the global stakes, including the threat posed by Russia’s authoritarian allies like Iran, China, and North Korea. Yatsenyuk calls for increased military aid to Ukraine, stricter sanctions on Russia, and the development of a “Trump Plan” to fund Ukraine’s recovery using confiscated Russian assets. He emphasizes that strong U.S. leadership is critical to ensuring Ukraine’s security and achieving sustainable peace, warning that Western weakness only emboldens Moscow and its allies. Atlantic Council

AMERICAS

Trump confronts an 'unholy alliance.' During his second term in office, President Donald Trump faces a darker future and more daunting challenges:  America’s adversaries have gotten together and present something closer to a united front.  Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have forged a "no-limits partnership," with Beijing giving Russia economic support for its war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, amid Trump’s inauguration celebrations, Putin and Xi were on a long phone call cementing their strategic partnership. Russia signed strategic pacts with North Korea in June 2024 and Iran on Friday. “Moscow's partnership with Beijing limits both Russian willingness to engage with Washington and Chinese vulnerability to U.S. pressure," Daniel Russel of the Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute, who headed East Asia policy under former President Barack Obama, told Reuters. Reuters  

Trump vs the ‘deep state’: the vendetta agenda takes shape. Donald Trump’s second presidency is characterized by aggressive actions targeting perceived opponents, raising national security and geopolitical concerns. Early measures included revoking security clearances for former intelligence officials, such as John Bolton, while granting temporary clearances to allies without proper vetting, risking trust and effectiveness within intelligence agencies. These moves have prompted fears of a politicized national security apparatus. Trump has also launched reviews of federal agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission, with critics warning of a potential erosion of impartiality in their enforcement roles. His actions extend to high-profile dismissals, targeting officials critical of his agenda. Trump sees himself as righting wrongs. “Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents,” he said in his inaugural address on Monday. Internationally, these moves may weaken U.S. intelligence credibility and embolden adversaries like Russia and China. Domestically, they reflect a shift toward governance centered on retribution, challenging institutional norms and democratic accountability. Financial Times

Trump delays China tariffs, hints at friendly visit to Beijing.  President Donald Trump delayed slamming China with tariffs as expected on his first day back in office.  He  postponed the ban on the popular China-owned  TikTok app and suggested that the U.S. should acquire a half-interest in TikTok's U.S. business in return for keeping the app alive.  "Trump wants a deal. Otherwise, he would have shot up China on day one," Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for the Asia Pacific at Natixis, told Reuters.  Last week, Xi and Trump talked by phone and agreed to set up a strategic communication channel on "major issues." Trump said he might visit Beijing as soon as 2025.  "Trump is a businessman at heart, his considerations are more pragmatic, he is not interested in ideology," Wang Dong, an international relations professor at Peking University, told Reuters.  Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory, did not come up in Trump’s inauguration speech.   Reuters  

Trump stirs tariff pot with fresh threats on EU, Feb. 1 China deadline. U.S. President Donald Trump announced potential tariffs Tuesday on the European Union, China, Canada, and Mexico, tying the measures to fentanyl trafficking and trade imbalances, with a February 1 deadline for some duties. Trump signed a memorandum requiring trade reviews by April 1, fueling brief market optimism before fresh threats against key trade partners. Mexico and Canada responded cautiously, emphasizing sovereignty while corn farmers expressed concerns over trade disruptions. The tariffs, including potential 25% duties, reflect Trump's push for stricter trade policies and immigration measures, with analysts suggesting he is leveraging these threats to achieve broader economic objectives. Reuters 

Trudeau says Canada will respond to US tariffs as Ontario’s premier says Trump ‘declared war.’ Canada seeks to avoid U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs by emphasizing its critical role as an energy and mineral supplier to the U.S. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau highlighted Canada’s contributions to U.S. energy, steel, and aluminum needs, noting these are essential for the economic boom Trump envisions. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith stressed Canada’s importance in supplying critical minerals and urged an exemption before the April 1 deadline. Despite advocating cooperation, Canada stands ready to retaliate, if necessary, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford warning of reciprocal tariffs and targeting U.S. goods, including banning American-made alcohol from Canadian shelves. Associated Press 

Rubio Oversees Halt to Foreign Aid and Meets with Asian Diplomats on Day 1. Marco Rubio was sworn in as secretary of state by Vice President JD Vance at 9:30 a.m. Tuesday. His first act was to greet State employees at a brief ceremony. Then, he met with his counterparts from India, Japan and Australia to discuss issues in the Indo-Pacific region, where he believes China seeks to dominate. At his instruction, the State Department and the United States Agency for International Development halted the disbursement of foreign aid, following an executive order signed on Monday by President Donald Trump to conduct a 90-day review of aid programs.    New York Times   

Quad foreign ministers meet in Washington in signal of Trump's China focus. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Tuesday with foreign ministers from Quad nations—India, Japan, and Australia—on Tuesday to reaffirm their commitment to a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific." The meeting emphasized countering China's growing influence, strengthening regional security, and enhancing cooperation in critical areas like defense, cybersecurity, and supply chain resilience. Australia sought assurances on the AUKUS defense pact, while Japan raised concerns over North Korea and regional stability. The Quad pledged to oppose unilateral actions threatening sovereignty, signaling a renewed U.S. focus on countering Beijing early in President Donald Trump’s second term. Reuters U.S. Department of State VOA Associated Press 

US and India discuss concerns about 'irregular immigration,' State Department says. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar discussed strengthening U.S.-India ties on Tuesday, focusing on irregular migration, economic collaboration, defense, and critical technologies. The talks highlighted India's concerns over H-1B visa stability, which benefits Indian professionals, and the U.S. crackdown on undocumented migrants, with 18,000 Indian nationals identified for repatriation. Rubio emphasized the Trump administration’s commitment to addressing migration-related challenges and advancing shared priorities, while India underscored the mutual benefits of skilled migration for both economies. The discussions signal a strategic partnership amidst evolving immigration and trade policies. Reuters Economic Times  

Hundreds of Capitol rioters released from prison after Trump's sweeping pardon. President Donald Trump’s sweeping pardon of over 1,500 individuals involved in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack has led to the release of prominent far-right figures, including Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes. Both men, who had been serving lengthy sentences for seditious conspiracy, were freed on Tuesday. Hundreds of other convicted rioters have also been released from federal custody, with pending cases dismissed. Families of Capitol Police officers and lawmakers condemned the move, calling it a betrayal of justice, while supporters celebrated outside detention centers. Reuters New York Times BBC Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Fresh allegations surface against Pentagon nominee Hegseth. Controversy has again complicated the nomination of Pete Hegseth for U.S. defense secretary, after his former sister-in-law, Danielle Hegseth, submitted an affidavit alleging abusive behavior toward his second wife, Samantha. Danielle claims Hegseth was erratic, aggressive, and that Samantha feared for her safety during their marriage. She also alleges Hegseth exhibited troubling behavior, such as shouting "no means yes" while intoxicated, possibly a reference to nonconsensual sex. However, Danielle admitted she did not witness physical or sexual abuse firsthand. Pete Hegseth and Samantha have denied allegations of abuse during their divorce proceedings, and Samantha reiterated there was no physical abuse. Hegseth's lawyer dismissed the claims as politically motivated and unsubstantiated. Senate Republicans, comparing the situation to previous contentious confirmations, expressed confidence in Hegseth's confirmation, despite calls from Democrats for a deeper FBI review of his background. Hegseth faced prior allegations of excessive drinking, extramarital affairs, and sexual assault, which he has denied. He acknowledged paying a settlement in a 2017 case and promised not to drink on the job if confirmed. Senate Democrats have raised concerns about the adequacy of his background investigation and continue to question his fitness for the role. Associated Press Reuters CNN BBC CBS NBC The Times   

Cuba prisoner deal murky after Trump order. Cuban political prisoners released as part of a Vatican-brokered deal are facing doubt and fears after U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated Cuba on the terrorism blacklist this week, reversing a Biden administration decision aimed at easing sanctions. The agreement, under which Havana pledged to release over 500 political prisoners, including those jailed for participating in the 2021 protests, is now in limbo. So far, around 150 prisoners have been released. One recently freed woman, Karen Vasquez, who was convicted of sedition and sentenced to seven years for her role in the protests, expressed fear and uncertainty following Trump's executive order. While Cuba maintains the prisoner releases are a "sovereign" act and plans to continue, human rights groups are concerned about a potential pause in releases. Some released prisoners have been forbidden by Cuban state security from speaking publicly, while others, like Vasquez, remain cautious about their future. The deal's terms remain unclear, with neither Cuba nor the U.S. officially acknowledging negotiations. Despite the setback, the Catholic Church, which facilitated the discussions, remains hopeful that the releases will proceed. Reuters Le Monde RBC-Ukraine Politico   

22 states sue to halt Trump’s birthright citizenship block. President Donald Trump’s executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship in the U.S. has sparked widespread legal and political backlash. Birthright citizenship, guaranteed under the 14th Amendment, grants citizenship to anyone born in the U.S., regardless of their parents' immigration status. Trump's order argues that children of noncitizens are not subject to U.S. jurisdiction and therefore should not receive automatic citizenship. Attorneys general from 22 states, along with the District of Columbia, San Francisco, and immigrant rights groups, have filed lawsuits challenging the order, arguing that it violates the Constitution. Critics say the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of citizenship is settled law, citing Supreme Court cases such as the 1898 ruling on Wong Kim Ark. They warn the order could harm families and deny children full participation in U.S. society. Matt Platkin, New Jersey Attorney General, asserted that “the president cannot, with a stroke of a pen, write the 14th Amendment out of existence, period.” Trump’s administration defends the order as necessary to curb illegal immigration. Legal challenges are expected to result in a prolonged court battle over the interpretation of the 14th Amendment. Associated Press New York Times The Guardian Reuters CBS  

Trump border czar reports targeted immigration actions have begun, while refugee policy needs reevaluation. White House border czar Tom Homan on Tuesday said that the Trump administration was conducting targeted immigration enforcement actions. He did not disclose details about the operations but said that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was executing the law. Homan told Fox News that officials have been directed to “prioritize public safety,” and go after “those who are in the country illegally that have been convicted, arrested for serious crime.” He also asserted that because ICE is not permitted to make arrests in jails in sanctuary cities, and must go to neighborhoods to find their targets, these cities “will get exactly what they don't want, more agents in their neighborhoods and more collateral arrests.” In an interview with CNN, Homan also said that a now-suspended program for refugees from Afghanistan and other countries had a “massive vetting problem" that needed to be resolved. FOX News Reuters CNN  

Trump administration says it is reviving 'remain in Mexico' program. The Trump administration has reinstated the "Remain in Mexico" policy, requiring non-Mexican asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their U.S. cases are processed. Initially launched in 2019 during Trump’s first term and suspended by President Biden in 2021, the policy has been revived as part of Trump's renewed focus on aggressive border security measures. Critics argue that the policy exposes vulnerable migrants, including families, to dangerous and inhumane conditions in Mexican border towns, which are often plagued by high levels of violence and crime. During Biden’s presidency, many migrants were allowed to pursue their cases from the U.S., because some were left stranded in squalid camps south of the border, before the policy’s suspension. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to address the humanitarian needs of migrants while repatriating foreign nationals to their home countries. However, concerns remain about the safety and well-being of migrants affected by the policy, as many face increased risks of harm, illness, and fatal attempts at unauthorized crossings. The reinstatement is expected to further strain border regions and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The Guardian Reuters 

Trump scraps policies limiting migrant arrests at locations like churches, schools, hospital. The Trump administration has reversed long-standing policies that limited immigration enforcement at sensitive locations such as schools, churches, and hospitals. This change, announced by the Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday, empowers Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to make arrests in these areas without prior approval, aligning with Trump’s campaign promises. Advocates have criticized the move, warning it could deter immigrants from accessing essential services, such as medical care and education, and cause distress for families, including American citizen children. Schools and churches have pledged to resist, with some passing policies to prohibit cooperation with ICE unless presented with a court order. Churches have historically provided sanctuary to migrants, and many plan to continue these efforts despite the new guidelines. Associated Press 

Mexican president tries to dispel tensions with Washington.   Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday she will defend her nation's sovereignty and independence while also pursuing dialogue with President Donald Trump.  Trump suggested Monday that he might levy an across-the-board 25% duty on Mexican goods beginning February.  Also, he signed an executive order declaring illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border as a national emergency.  And he launched a process to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. At her regular Tuesday press conference, Sheinbaum responded mildly, saying she will insist on respectful relations and avoid confrontations. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Trump foreign policies likely to follow Biden’s, which followed Trump’s.  Donald Trump’s foreign policy may not differ dramatically from that of former President Joe Biden’s, writes Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security. For example, the Trump administration’s approach to Israel, will offer military support, defense from Iranian missiles and protection from diplomatic attacks at the U.N. and other international fora. Policy toward Saudi Arabia will involve regional normalization. Trump, like Biden, sees China as its biggest challenge.  Trump is likely to seek stronger partnerships abroad, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, to stand up to Beijing. The AUKUS defense technology sharing pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States is likely to last. Trump will probably back deeper ties with India, as Biden did. Biden and Trump both believe in economic protectionism that combines tariffs, “Buy America”, import substitution, reshoring domestic manufacturing, and skepticism of multilateral trade agreements.  Foreign Affairs 

'Be serious', says Panama president on Trump 'invasion' question. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino dismissed concerns over U.S. intentions to reclaim the Panama Canal, responding to a question with, “Be serious, be serious.” His comment followed President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech expressing aspirations to retake the canal, which Trump alleged Panama mishandled by ceding operations to China—claims Panama denies. Mulino emphasized Panama’s responsible administration of the canal, stating on X, “It is and will continue to be Panamanian.” Trump’s remarks have drawn criticism across Latin America, as he has not ruled out the use of military force. Reuters

EUROPE

EU tells Trump’s America: We have other options. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered an upbeat message Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, positioning the European Union as a powerful global player ready to adapt amid the challenges of Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. She highlighted Europe’s economic strengths, including its vast single market, social infrastructure, and commitment to the rule of law, contrasting this with the unpredictability of U.S. policies. Von der Leyen emphasized diversification, signaling openness to trade with Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific nations, and constructive engagement with China. “We must look for new opportunities wherever they arise. This is the moment to engage beyond blocs and taboos. And Europe is ready for change,” she said. While avoiding direct criticism of Trump, she underlined Europe’s adherence to international rules and its reliability as a partner. Plans for EU reforms were announced, including unifying capital markets and reducing bureaucratic hurdles to spur investment. In a departure from traditional transatlantic focus, von der Leyen called for pragmatism and forging new alliances, asserting Europe’s readiness to assert its interests and values on the global stage. Politico EU

EU's Kallas: Russia is posing an existential threat to our security. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that "Russia poses an existential threat to our security today, tomorrow, and for as long as we underinvest in our defense." Speaking at the European Defense Agency’s annual conference in Brussels, she emphasized the need for greater EU defense spending, stating, “We must spend more to prevent war. But we also need to prepare for war.” Kallas acknowledged U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for increased NATO defense budgets, calling it a realistic assessment. Reuters

Germany proposes tougher EU response to hybrid threats from Russia. Germany has proposed tougher European Union measures to counter Russia's hybrid threats, including sanctions on Moscow's "shadow fleet" used for illicit fossil fuel trade and restrictions on Russian diplomatic movements. Ahead of an EU foreign ministers' meeting on Jan. 27, Berlin suggests closer collaboration with private infrastructure providers, regular stress tests for critical systems, and declassifying intelligence to attribute blame for incidents like Baltic Sea sabotage. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasizes a coordinated EU approach to deter arson, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. The goal is to enhance resilience and clearly signal accountability for Russia’s actions across Europe. Politico EU

Davos Bankers Feel Trump Tailwind That Leaves Europe Chasing US. At Davos 2025, global banking leaders highlighted the growing divide between U.S. and European financial regulation under Donald Trump’s administration. Trump’s rapid rollback of regulations, including delaying Basel III capital requirements, has left European banks at a disadvantage. Basel III, a global framework designed to strengthen bank capital and liquidity standards, mandates higher reserves to absorb losses and reduce systemic risk. While intended to improve financial stability, banks argue it limits lending and shareholder payouts. The U.S. has delayed adopting Basel III’s latest phase, signaling a hands-off approach, while the European Union proceeds slowly. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel noted that U.S. banks are Europe’s real competition, benefiting from Trump’s pro-business policies. Commerzbank’s Bettina Orlopp called for the EU to reconsider its regulatory path to remain competitive. With fragmented markets and stagnant growth, European banks risk falling further behind their U.S. counterparts. Bloomberg

Davos Seeing Raft of Trump ‘Unknowns’ Counsels Calm and Caution. At Davos 2025, global leaders cautiously observe Donald Trump’s renewed focus on trade policies. Trump hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada by Feb. 1 while adopting a more collaborative tone toward China, surprising many given his campaign rhetoric. Former Trump aide Gary Cohn noted the volatility of Trump’s tariff approach, emphasizing its potential inflationary impact. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang pledged balanced trade and openness in response to U.S. demands. European and financial leaders, while vigilant, expressed limited concern over potential inflation and retaliation, emphasizing a need for careful engagement amid the uncertainties of Trump’s trade agenda. Bloomberg

Weakened Macron and Scholz Seek Common Ground to Handle Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet in Paris on Wednesday to address U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats and broader transatlantic challenges. The leaders aim to project European unity and defend free trade despite weakened domestic positions. Trump’s proposed tariffs target European exports, raising tensions over trade imbalances and defense spending. Macron and Scholz, often at odds, also face disagreements on European Union trade policies and defense funding, with Germany favoring debt-financed military spending and France advocating joint EU borrowing. They will also discuss regulating U.S. tech giants and countering misinformation under the EU’s Digital Services Act. Bloomberg

Fugitive Banker May Be Helping Russian Firms Beat US Sanctions. Fugitive banker Ilan Shor, convicted of a $1 billion fraud in Moldova, is reportedly enabling Russian firms to bypass U.S. sanctions through cross-border payment schemes. Shor co-founded A7 with Promsvyazbank, a heavily sanctioned Russian lender, to support global transactions disrupted by sanctions. His ventures, including Exim International with Russia’s VEB.RF, provide financial services that enable trade through non-dollar currencies or alternative methods, exploiting regulatory loopholes. Shor, now sanctioned by the U.S., European Union, and UK, fled Moldova in 2019 and operates from Russia. His activities underscore the persistent challenges sanctions face in deterring sophisticated evasion strategies. Bloomberg

In Davos, Scholz calls for 'cool heads,' cautious optimism in the face of Trump. At Tuesday's World Economic Forum in Davos, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed cautious optimism about U.S.-German relations under President Donald Trump, citing productive initial talks. Scholz emphasized the importance of maintaining strong U.S.-Europe ties for global security and economic progress but warned Europe must increase its self-reliance. He urged "cool heads" amid uncertainties, cautioning against overreacting to Trump’s statements or tweets. Scholz acknowledged potential challenges, including tariffs and divergent stances on energy, climate, and trade policies. While expecting unpredictability in Trump’s term, Scholz reaffirmed his commitment to fostering cooperation with the United States. Reuters

Elon Musk calls German chancellor 'Oaf Schitz' in post slamming free speech comments. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday he does not support freedom of speech when it is used for extreme-right views, a day after a hand gesture likened to a Nazi salute by U.S. billionaire Elon Musk caused uproar during Donald Trump's inauguration festivities "We have the freedom of speech in Europe and in Germany. Everyone can say what he wants, even if he is a billionaire. And what we do not accept is if this is supporting extreme-right positions," Scholz said at the World Economic Forum in Davos when asked about the incident. Musk dismissed the claims and mocked Scholz on X, calling him "Oaf Schitz" in a post. The insult followed previous tensions, including Musk’s support for Germany’s far-right AfD party and earlier attacks on Scholz’s leadership. Meanwhile, the European Commission is intensifying its investigation into X’s compliance with European Union content moderation rules, monitoring Musk's platform for potential misinformation. Reuters

How Lukashenko crushed the spirit of revolution in Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko’s regime has crushed dissent in Belarus since massive protests erupted following the rigged 2020 presidential election. Demonstrators, led by female opposition figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, were met with brutal crackdowns—over 60,000 arrests, widespread torture, and media shutdowns. Opposition leaders, including Tsikhanouskaya’s husband and activist Maria Kolesnikova, fled or were imprisoned. Backed by Russian economic and military support, Lukashenko remains in power, preparing for a seventh term in rubber-stamped elections on January 26. Fear of KGB retribution silences dissent, with many citizens resigned to apathy. Belarus’s role in Russia’s war on Ukraine, allowing missile launches but avoiding troop deployment, reflects Lukashenko’s cautious balance amid domestic opposition to the war. Western sanctions have failed to weaken the regime, exacerbating hardships for ordinary Belarusians. Locals, traumatized by the 2020 crackdown, see little hope for change as Lukashenko clings to power, dismissing opposition hopes for his departure. The Times

Exiled rival accuses Lukashenko of playing 'game' with prisoners before Belarus election. Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya criticized President Alexander Lukashenko's "game" of releasing political prisoners ahead of Belarus's election, calling it an attempt to secure Western concessions without easing repression. Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday, she dismissed the election as a sham, citing arrests and suppression of dissent. Tsikhanouskaya emphasized that negotiations with Lukashenko should only follow the unconditional release of all prisoners. She urged global allies to support Belarus's fight against dictatorship and stressed the importance of addressing Belarus's future in any Ukraine peace talks, including the withdrawal of Russian troops and nuclear weapons from Belarusian territory. Reuters

As defense ties strengthen, US assesses Cyprus base. A U.S. military team is visiting Cyprus to assess upgrades at a base in Paphos as part of strengthened defense ties. The team will recommend infrastructure improvements to enhance interoperability with the U.S. and its partners. Cypriot officials view modernizing facilities, investing in training, and improving evacuation capabilities as strategic priorities. Cyprus, a European Union member, has played a key regional role in past humanitarian efforts, including a Gaza aid corridor. The growing U.S.-Cyprus cooperation has drawn criticism from Turkey, which occupies northern Cyprus. The assessment includes evaluating landing facilities for potential large-scale evacuations from the volatile Middle East region. Reuters

EU has reduced Russian gas imports by 75%, von der Leyen says. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday that the European Union has cut Russian gas imports by 75%, reduced Russian oil imports to 3%, and eliminated coal imports entirely. These measures, driven by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, aimed to end dependency on Russian energy, which von der Leyen described as “blackmail.” Kyiv's decision to end a gas transit deal with Gazprom in December 2024 halted Russian pipeline gas to the EU, though liquefied natural gas imports from Russia reached record levels in 2024. Kyiv Independent

Sanchez says Spain pulling its weight in NATO after Trump criticism of defense spending. In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of Spain’s NATO contributions, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Wednesday highlighted Spain’s defense spending increase of 70% over the past decade. However, Spain’s 2024 defense spending equaled 1.28% of GDP, the lowest among NATO members. Sanchez defended Spain as a “reliable partner” with above-average participation in NATO operations, urging broader consideration of commitment beyond GDP percentages. Reuters

Azerbaijan, accused of stifling press, puts 7 news staff on trial. Seven journalists, including six from Abzas Media and one from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, went on trial in Azerbaijan, facing smuggling charges that could lead to up to 12 years in prison. The arrests, beginning in November 2023, have been condemned by international press freedom groups as a crackdown on independent journalism and anti-corruption reporting. Abzas Media staff deny the charges, alleging planted evidence. President Ilham Aliyev has dismissed criticism, claiming Azerbaijan has a free press. The trial resumes on Feb. 11, as calls from international leaders, including former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, demand the release of detained journalists. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Hamas' control over Gaza could muddle plans for lasting peace. After 15 months of devastating war with Israel, Hamas has reasserted control over Gaza in the wake of Sunday’s long-awaited ceasefire, managing rubble clearance, restoring basic services, reimposing security, and securing aid convoys. Despite significant Israeli military efforts, including the killing of top Hamas leaders, the group remains entrenched in Gaza with a strong administrative and military presence. It operates both ministries and government agencies, cooperating with international NGOs and even paying employee salaries. One Hamas official said the Islamist group aims to “prevent any kind of security vacuum.” He added that since its police began safeguarding aid convoys, not a single vehicle has been looted, a statement confirmed by a U.N. spokesperson in Geneva. The ceasefire agreement requires Israel to withdraw troops, facilitate aid, and begin negotiations for a permanent truce. However, tensions remain, as Israel and key international actors, including the U.S. and UAE, oppose Hamas' continued rule in Gaza. Talks are ongoing about potential post-war governance models, including joint oversight by international peacekeepers or committees involving both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, though no consensus has been reached. While some Gazans praise Hamas for enduring the conflict, others blame its actions for the destruction. Reconstruction, which is expected to cost billions and take years, remains uncertain as debates over the enclave’s governance and future continue. President Trump expressed skepticism about the ceasefire's implementation shortly after taking office. Reuters

Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi to step down in March because of October 7 failure. Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi wrote to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz Tuesday that he would resign on March 6, in keeping with his promise that he would take responsibility for the October 7, 2023, failure. He said other entities could potentially probe the wider issues of the failure, including the government and Netanyahu himself.  Halevi expressed satisfaction for his and the military’s recent successes, against Hezbollah in Lebanon, against the Assad regime in Syria, against Iran, and in defeating Hamas’s 24 battalions and forcing Hamas into the hostage exchange deal.  Jerusalem Post Associated Press  

Palestinian villages suffered attacks by suspected settlers, just hours before Trump overturned Biden’s sanctions. Hours before U.S. President Donald Trump reversed Biden-era sanctions against Israeli settlers accused of violence in the West Bank, Palestinian villages came under attack by masked assailants believed to be Jewish settlers. Officials in Jinsafut and Al-Funduq reported that late on Monday, dozens of men raided at least two Palestinian villages, allegedly beating men, attacking homes and businesses, firing shots, and burning cars. The Biden administration's sanctions had targeted settlers involved in violence or property seizures, marking a rare criticism of Israel’s handling of such incidents, but Trump’s reversal signals a significant shift toward stronger support for the Jewish state and its settlement policies. The decision was praised by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Israeli settler leaders, but it raises concerns about growing impunity for settler violence. Associated Press Al Jazeera 

Yemen vice president says Trump will aid fight against Iran backed Houthis. Aidarous al-Zubaidi, vice president of Yemen, welcomed Donald Trump's return Tuesday as a decisive turning point to curb the Iran-backed Houthis. He praised Trump's strong leadership and willingness to employ military strength and accused the Biden administration of allowing the Houthis to consolidate power, improve their military might and expand their range.  Reuters  

Syria’s southern rebels could present a challenge for the nation’s new rulers as they try to establish a national army. The Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has established itself as the dominant force in Syria since toppling the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but tensions have begun to simmer between these northern rebels and the southern factions that helped them bring down the government in December. Though insurgents from the north, historically backed by Turkey and Qatar, cooperated with southern fighters supported by Jordan and the U.S., there could be challenges in unifying various rebel groups under a single administration. Southern factions, long operating independently, defied international plans by pushing into Damascus last month, reflecting their eagerness to remove Assad without delay. Efforts to form a unified national army and government face resistance from local factions, many of whom remain armed and skeptical. HTS has begun coordinating with local groups to extend state influence, but the integration process is slow and uncertain. Observers fear potential conflict among factions, but leaders express a desire to avoid further violence in the war-torn country. Associated Press 

France issues new arrest warrant for Syria’s Assad, source says. French magistrates have issued a new arrest warrant for ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, citing suspected complicity in war crimes, including a 2017 bombing that killed Franco-Syrian Salah Abou Nabour. This follows a prior 2023 warrant accusing Assad of crimes against humanity linked to chemical attacks in Douma and Eastern Ghouta in 2013. Assad, overthrown in December 2024, has denied using chemical weapons during Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011. Reuters

Turkey's opposition suffers arrests and investigations as critics blast Erdogan's ruling party. Turkish authorities are coming under fire for their crackdown on opposition voices, with investigations and detentions targeting several figures.  On Monday alone, three opposition members were targeted, including the Republican People's Party (CHP) youth branch head for a social media post, CHP Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu for criticizing the judiciary, and far-right leader Umit Ozdag for allegedly insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The CHP accuses Erdogan's ruling AK Party of using the judiciary to silence dissent, especially following significant AKP losses in recent municipal elections. Multiple mayors from the CHP and pro-Kurdish DEM Party have been arrested or removed on charges widely seen as politically motivated. Imamoglu, a prominent opposition figure, faces potential disqualification from politics if a prior sentence against him is upheld. Analysts warn that these developments signal a shift toward authoritarianism, reducing the opposition's chances in future elections, while the government denies allegations of judicial politicization. Reuters Washington Post 

Turkey's pro-Kurdish party to meet jailed PKK leader again Wednesday. Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party will meet jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan on Wednesday, aiming to advance peace efforts in the decades-long conflict that has caused around 40,000 deaths. DEM leaders cite Ocalan’s potential willingness to urge the PKK to disarm. Nationalist MHP leader Devlet Bahceli has called for the group’s “unconditional” disbandment. DEM advocates dialogue for a peaceful resolution but seeks a legal framework and road map amid Kurdish concerns over Ankara’s intentions. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Amid sabotage suspicions, Taiwan relies on back-up communication for Matsu Islands to restore internet after undersea cables malfunctioned. The Taiwanese Ministry of Digital Affairs reported on Wednesday that undersea cables connecting the Matsu Islands to mainland Taiwan were disconnected, likely due to "natural deterioration," with repairs expected by late February. Backup communication systems, including microwave technology, have been activated to partially restore internet access for the islands' 14,000 residents. While no suspicious activity was detected, Taiwan noted an increase in undersea cable malfunctions, with four incidents reported in 2025 so far, compared to three each in 2024 and 2023. Damage to undersea cables is a growing concern for Taipei, as it faces "grey zone" activities by China, such as sand dredging and balloon overflights, which aim to exert pressure without direct confrontation. Taiwan recently accused a Chinese-linked vessel of damaging a cable to the north of the sovereign island, though both the vessel's owner and Beijing denied involvement. In 2023, cables connecting Matsu were cut by two Chinese vessels, but there was no evidence of deliberate tampering. Taiwan has since enhanced communication resilience, including testing low-Earth orbit satellites for remote areas like Matsu, to prepare for potential conflicts with China. Reuters

CSIS examines opportunities for defense-tech start-ups in the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a commentary on the rapid advancement of technologies like AI, robotics, and biotechnology, and how these developments are reshaping the defense sector, with start-ups playing a critical role in driving innovation. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is actively engaging start-ups and allies like Japan to enhance defense technology cooperation. Japan is building a deep-tech start-up ecosystem to support defense capabilities, aided by government programs and increasing collaboration with U.S. initiatives like the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and Foreign Comparative Testing (FCT). Challenges remain, such as aligning information security, addressing cultural resistance to defense-related work in Japan, and strengthening Tokyo’s underdeveloped deep-tech ecosystem. Both countries are working to integrate start-ups into their defense supply chains, enhance industrial security, and promote joint R&D. U.S.-Japan collaboration in defense technology presents a significant opportunity to diversify the defense industrial base, accelerate innovation, and strengthen supply chain resilience. Continued commitment from both governments is essential to realize this potential and advance shared defense goals. CSIS

Japanese foreign minister says nation has no choice but to bolster defense. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya reaffirmed Japan's commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in Washington on Tuesday. This decision is driven by rising security concerns in East Asia, including China's mounting military power and North Korea's nuclear threat. The return of U.S. President Donald Trump has raised expectations that Washington may push allies like Japan to further increase defense spending. Tokyo is already undergoing a historic defense buildup to address regional security challenges. Reuters 

North Korean state media gives cursory report of Trump inauguration, accuses Washington of Korean War atrocities. North Korea's state media briefly reported on the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday, without offering commentary on his presidency or American affairs. Instead, it accused the United States of committing atrocities during the Korean War and published a photo of young students receiving propaganda education about the conflict. Despite the lack of direct criticism of Trump, Pyongyang recently conducted missile tests to demonstrate its deterrence against the U.S., and potentially to draw Trump's attention, following its pledge for strong anti-U.S. actions at a recent policy meeting. Trump previously held historic summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and has emphasized their personal rapport. Reuters 

Indonesia plans pardons for Papua prisoners, including separatist rebels, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto plans to pardon prisoners in Papua, including separatists, if they renounce violence and secessionist agendas, according to senior minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra. The government is drafting a list of eligible individuals, aiming to foster hope for resolving the long-standing conflict in Papua, which has faced tight security since a disputed 1969 referendum. Prabowo also plans broader pardons, including for activists and drug offenders, as part of his approach to reconciliation. Reuters

South Korea's birthrate set to rise for the first time in nine years. South Korea's birthrate is set to rise in 2024 for the first time in nine years, with newborns from January to November increasing 3% year-on-year to 220,094. This follows a 13.5% jump in marriages during the same period, the largest rise since 1980, as couples resumed weddings delayed by the pandemic. South Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.72 in 2023, introduced financial incentives, including tax cuts and subsidies, to address the "national demographic crisis." Annual birth data for 2024 will be released on Feb. 26 in the nation of nearly 52 million people. South China Morning Post Reuters 

U.N. urges Thailand not to deport Uyghurs to China, where they could face persecution and torture. Thailand is facing mounting international pressure, including from the United States, over the potential deportation of 48 Uyghur men to China. These men, who have been detained since 2014 after fleeing persecution, are reportedly at significant risk of torture or mistreatment if sent back. Concerns have grown following reports that Thai authorities gave the detainees documents for "voluntary return," raising fears of imminent deportation. The Thai government denies this. U.N. experts on Tuesday called on Bangkok to “immediately halt the possible transfer.” The detainees, held in “squalid conditions” with inadequate medical care, began a hunger strike on January 10 to protest their treatment and impending deportation. Rights groups report that five detainees, including children, have died during their detention, and many others suffer from severe health issues. The predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority faces systematic repression in China, including arbitrary detention, forced labor, and other human rights abuses, and many countries have described their treatment in Xinjiang as “genocide.” Past deportations of Uyghurs by Thailand have sparked international condemnation, with many families left separated, the fate of detainees unknown. The U.N. and human rights organizations have urged Thailand to uphold international legal obligations, ensuring no forced returns to countries where individuals may face torture. The US and other nations have called on Thailand to consider resettling the detainees in a third country instead of deporting them to China. CNN Reuters BBC 

Police launch probe amid concerns foreign actors are funding antisemitic crimes in Australia. Australian police are investigating whether foreign actors are paying criminals to carry out antisemitic attacks in the country. Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw stated that inquiries are focusing on identifying who might be financing these crimes, whether they are based locally or overseas, and their motivations. Payments may involve cryptocurrency, which complicates tracing. Detectives are examining 15 serious allegations of antisemitic crimes, including arson attacks and graffiti targeting Jewish communities in Sydney and Melbourne. Strike Force Pearl, formed to address antisemitic crimes, has doubled its team size following increased attacks. Authorities are also investigating whether young people have been radicalized online to commit antisemitic acts. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noted that some perpetrators appear to be "paid actors" without ideological motives. Associated Press BBC The Guardian 

AFRICA

Military-ruled Sahel states prepare joint force of 5,000 troops to tackle security threats. A joint force of 5,000 troops from Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), is set to deploy soon to address security threats in the central Sahel region. These nations, all led by military juntas following coups between 2020 and 2023, have severed ties with regional allies like France and other Western powers, opting for self-reliance in tackling Islamist violence linked to Al Qaeda and ISIS. The force, equipped with air assets, intelligence resources, and military equipment, will operate across the three countries. Some joint operations have already been conducted, and the full deployment is expected in the coming weeks. Violence in the region has intensified over the past decade, displacing approximately 2.6 million people as of December 2024, according to the UN. The alliance emerged after the three countries withdrew from the West African bloc ECOWAS, which has urged them to reconsider their decision, as it undermines decades of regional integration efforts. ReutersBarron's 

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in Congo’s east seize a strategically located town. Authorities on Tuesday revealed that M23 rebels have captured the strategic town of Minova in eastern Congo, a critical supply route for Goma, sparking a mass exodus of civilians. The rebels have also seized mining towns in South Kivu province, including Lumbishi, Numbi, and Shanje, as well as Bweremana in North Kivu. Congo's military acknowledged breakthroughs by M23 but did not confirm the capture of these towns. Minova, located on the shores of Lake Kivu, is a vital transit hub for agricultural goods heading to Goma, about 45 kilometers away.The Tutsi-led M23 group has been advancing rapidly in the region, seizing several strategic areas, including Masisi, a key mining town. This conflict, part of a decades-long struggle involving over 100 armed groups in Congo’s mineral-rich east, has displaced over 7 million people. Congo, the U.S., and the U.N. accuse Rwanda of supporting M23, a claim Rwanda denies. Associated Press Reuters BBC France 24 Al Jazeera 

Four Moroccan truck drivers abducted in Burkina Faso have been freed. Four Moroccan truck drivers kidnapped in West Africa were released in Niger after being taken by an unidentified armed group over the weekend. The drivers, who were transporting electrical equipment from Casablanca to Niamey, had been traveling for over 20 days on a 3,000-mile route when they went missing near the Burkina Faso-Niger border. They had opted not to use a military escort on the dangerous route. The drivers were freed and are safe in Niamey, though their trucks and cargo remain missing. Regional militant groups like the Islamic State Sahel Province and al-Qaida affiliates have heightened insecurity in the Sahel, where terrorism and organized crime have displaced millions and killed thousands. Last year, over 400 people were abducted in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, with militant groups responsible for many of these incidents. The region continues to grapple with instability due to insurgencies, political upheavals, and the replacement of Western security partnerships with Russian-linked mercenaries. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Trump Pushes to Make US an AI Superpower, With Fewer Guardrails. Donald Trump’s AI policy prioritizes rapid development and investment while reducing regulatory oversight, diverging sharply from Biden’s balanced approach emphasizing safety and environmental concerns. On his first day back in office, Trump rescinded Biden’s executive order mandating transparency and safety measures for AI developers. Instead, Trump announced a $100 billion joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank to fund AI infrastructure, with plans to scale to $500 billion. Unlike Biden’s focus on clean energy, Trump’s approach favors relaxed environmental regulations, allowing companies to rely on fossil fuels for AI data centers. His policy also distances the U.S. from Europe’s stricter AI regulations, favoring a hands-off approach to compete with China’s aggressive AI advancements. While industry leaders like Demis Hassabis cautiously support Trump’s pro-investment stance, critics argue his deregulation strategy sacrifices long-term safety and environmental goals, leaving companies to self-regulate in a rapidly evolving and competitive AI landscape. Bloomberg

White House announces $500 billion private sector investment in AI infrastructure. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a private-sector investment of up to $500 billion to develop AI infrastructure. OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle have reportedly committed $100 billion to a joint venture named Stargate, with follow-up investments over the following four years up to $500 billion. The CEOs of SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle — Masayoshi Son, Sam Altman and Larry Ellison – attended the White House announcement on Tuesday. In an interview last month, Altman described U.S. infrastructure as “super important,” adding that “AI is a little bit different from other kinds of software in that it requires massive amounts of infrastructure, power, computer chips, data centers, and we need to build that here and we need to be able to have the best AI infrastructure in the world to be able to lead with the technology and the capabilities.” According to Reuters, it is unclear if the $500 billion commitment is an update to a previously reported venture. Last March, OpenAI and Microsoft were reportedly working on plans for a $100 billion data center project, including an AI supercomputer called "Stargate.” Reuters CNN  CBS  Associated Press Bloomberg Wall Street Journal New York Times

ANALYSIS–Donald Trump’s America will not become a tech oligarchy. Despite alarm over tech billionaires’ influence in Donald Trump’s America, fears of an emerging oligarchy are overblown. While tech moguls like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg have amassed extraordinary wealth and proximity to power, their economic impact is limited. Collectively, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla contribute only 1.8% of U.S. GDP, far from the dominance seen in true oligarchies like Russia or Hungary. Unlike John D. Rockefeller’s near-total control of refined oil, today’s tech giants face vibrant competition. Walmart rivals Amazon, Tesla competes with established carmakers, and social media platforms vie for dominance. Public opinion and America’s dynamic economy further prevent entrenchment. While Trump’s transactional style raises concerns about cronyism, he has shown little ideological alignment with tech leaders. The tech industry’s fragmented interests and limited control over critical resources ensure that U.S. tech billionaires cannot dominate the economy or politics as true oligarchs despite their wealth and visibility. The Economist

Donald Trump threatens to double tax rates for foreign nationals and companies. Donald Trump has threatened to double U.S. tax rates for foreign nationals and companies in response to what he calls "discriminatory" taxes on American multinationals. Invoking Section 891 of the tax code, he ordered an investigation into foreign tax policies that target U.S. businesses, including digital services taxes and the global corporate tax framework developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Trump also withdrew U.S. support for the OECD tax pact, allowing top-up taxes on multinationals headquartered in countries with lower tax rates. Critics warn this could escalate tensions with the European Union and other jurisdictions hosting U.S. tech company operations. Financial Times

Trump Says He’s Open to Elon Musk or Larry Ellison Purchasing TikTok. President Donald Trump expressed openness on Tuesday to Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, or other U.S. investors purchasing TikTok, emphasizing the importance of national security. Following a temporary app shutdown, Trump extended the deadline for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations by 75 days. Musk, a vocal critic of China’s restrictions on U.S. platforms, has not confirmed interest, while Ellison appeared alongside Trump, highlighting a new AI venture. Other potential buyers, including investor Kevin O’Leary, propose acquiring TikTok without its content algorithm to ease regulatory concerns. Beijing remains hesitant, asserting acquisitions should follow fair rules, not political pressure, complicating the app’s future. Bloomberg Reuters 

TikTok app unavailable on Apple, Google in wake of Trump E.O. granting an extension. While President Donald Trump has issued an executive order delaying the ban on TikTok for 75 days, the app remained unavailable on the Apple and Google stores on Tuesday. TikTok resumed U.S. operations over the weekend after receiving assurances from the new administration that it would not be subjected to fines. Industry analysts speculate that the reason Apple and Google have not returned the app to their stores is that they are seeking protections against legal repercussions despite the Trump E.O. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC he is very interested in investing in TikTok although he has put a hold on a bid because China has not been willing to negotiate. Mnuchin explained that his concept for the app is “to transfer all technology so it no longer engages with ByteDance going forward." In other remarks to CNBC, Bill Ford, the CEO of TikTok investor General Atlantic, said there are ways to change TikTok's U.S. ownership without sale, adding that parent company ByteDance already has 60 percent of shareholders who are not Chinese. That majority of shareholders is made up of institutional investors such as BlackRock and General Atlantic, while ByteDance’s founders and employees own 20 percent each. Thomas Liu, CEO of Policy Nexus consulting firm, commented that a negotiated outcome could involve “regulatory compliance, transparency measures, and possibly U.S.-based ownership.” Reuters South China Morning Post New York Times TechCrunch

Trump revokes Biden E.O on AI risks, lets stand prior administration order on AI data centers. The 2023 executive order on AI issued by then-President Joe Biden was rescinded by President Donald Trump in an executive order on Monday.  The Biden E.O. targeted AI risks to consumers, the labor force, and national security and required safety test disclosures by AI developers before release to the public. The 2024 platform of the Republican Party made clear the intent to repeal the order because it hampered innovation and dampened free speech.  A separate E.O. issued last week by Biden to promote AI data center development has not been revoked by the Trump administration.  Reuters  National Law Review  Barron’s

TSA administrator and cybersecurity advocate relieved of duties by Trump transition team.  David Pekoske, the administrator of the Department of Homeland Security’s Transportation Security Administration (TSA), was relieved of his duties on Monday by the Trump transition team. In a memo to the TSA staff, Pekoske explained that he was advised of his removal by the team, to be effective at noon on Monday. Pekoske was appointed to the TSA post by then-President Trump in 2017 and renewed in the position by President Biden for a 5-year term in 2022.  Pekoske played a key role in the administration’s response to cybersecurity failures connected to the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline in 2021. He helped to develop new cybersecurity rules focusing on basic requirements such as cyber incident reporting, designated cybersecurity coordinators, and incident response plans. Speaking at the DEF CON security conference in 2023, Pekoske cited increasing cyber threats from China, Russia, and other states as the impetus for TSA to coordinate with other agencies and issue emergency directives.  The Record notes that the White House has not commented on last week’s Biden executive order on cybersecurity that was removed from the U.S. government website on Tuesday but not officially rescinded. The Record

Anduril ties to Trump inner circle underscore deep interest in ‘AI-infused’ weaponry. A recent defense tech demonstration by Anduril involved semi-autonomous drones performing surveillance, tracking, and counter-drone operations to fend off a simulated attack on a command post.  The technologies on display represent an “AI-infused” set of capabilities that may be advanced by President Donald Trump and his advisers, who reportedly have long-standing ties to Anduril.  Brian Schimpf, Anduril CEO and co-founder, said the company’s vision for emerging military capabilities is “about making much-lower-cost, easy-to-produce and mass-manufacture weapons that we can resupply in a time of war.”  The emphasis on low-cost, mass-produced weapons is reinforced by recent military exchanges in the Middle East where missiles costing millions of dollars are used to defend against inexpensive aerial drones.  Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently remarked that the U.S. is “on the wrong end of that” equation.  A 2023 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concluded that in a U.S.-China conflict, the U.S. would expend its supply of long-range precision missiles in less than a week.  As one of the leading defense tech start-ups, Anduril has received over $4 billion in funding and boasts a product lineup of eight aerial and maritime surveillance and attack drones.  In addition, Anduril’s Lattice software provides the capability to link and control separate robots, sensors, and other military components, as shown in the drone demonstration.  Several of Anduril’s leaders are former employees of Palantir, a vendor of data analysis software for the defense and intelligence communities.  The Anduril-Palantir nexus is said to include close ties to Vice President J.D. Vance as well as crypto-AI czar David Sacks, and Elon Musk.  Schimpf has said that Anduril representatives are “very involved” in conversations on how to increase the Pentagon’s efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Washington Post

Russia-linked scammers attempt data exfiltration by posing as Microsoft Teams support. Russia-linked hackers masquerading as tech support for Microsoft Teams are trying to convince targets of an IT issue in order to install ransomware on their devices.  The U.K. cybersecurity company, Sophos, says it has monitored over 15 incidents involving two different groups that have used MS Office 365’s service settings to try to gain access to a targeted system.  Sophos says it has identified an overlap between one of the groups and the threat actor tracked as Storm-1811, which reportedly has been involved in similar scams.  The second group has links to the Russian cybercriminal threat actor, Fin7.  Sean Gallagher, Sophos X-Ops principal threat researcher, said the new campaigns were uncovered after the team was “researching some BeaverTail cases, some actual nation-state stuff going on, with North Korea.”  The scammers have used both Teams voice and video calls posing as an outsourced support provider.  They also have sent text messages on the Teams chat function containing links that when activated would provide the attackers with remote control access.  Sophos cautioned that “unless absolutely necessary, organizations should ensure that their Office 365 service provisions restrict Teams calls from outside organizations or restrict that capability to trusted business partners.”  The Record   Cybernews

Hackers use Ukraine emergency computer response cover to compromise targets. Ukrainians targeted by hackers posing to trick allowing computer access – A new, unattributed cyber campaign has been launched against Ukrainian targets by posing as tech support from Ukraine’s computer emergency response team (CERT-UA).  The threat actors are employing a legitimate remote desktop application, AnyDesk, and claiming to perform a “security audit” on targeted devices.  Their aim is to establish remote access to victims’ computers over the internet.  CERT-UA has clarified that while it uses the AnyDesk app, it only does so “with prior agreement and through pre-approved communication channels.”  CERT-UA did not provide additional details but said the target’s AnyDesk identifier likely was compromised on computers previously authorized for remote access.  CERT-UA detected more than 4,300 cyber incidents over the past year, an increase of nearly 70 percent over 2023.   Most incidents involve attempts to distribute malware, gain access, and exfiltrate data.  Compromised accounts and malware sent via email were the primary methods for conducting attacks.  The Record

Hewlett Packard investigating claimed breach leading to sensitive information exposure. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reports that a threat actor claims to have extracted documents from HPE developer environments, but the company says it has uncovered no evidence of a system breach.  An HPE spokesperson told BleepingComputer that “a group called IntelBroker (claimed) that it was in possession of information belonging to HPE."  The threat actor claims to be selling extracted information online.  HPE responded by activating cyber response protocols, including the disabling of related credentials and launching an investigation to determine if the claims were credible.  HPE went on to say that “there is no operational impact to our business at this time, nor evidence that customer information is involved."  The Intelbroker threat actor said they gained access to HPE’s API, WePay, and (private and public) GitHub repositories over a two-day period and removed private and public keys, source code, and user personal information.  IntelBroker was behind the breach of the DC Health Link, which administers health care plans for the House of Representatives, which resulted in the online link of the personal data of 170,000 individuals. BleepingComputer  TechCrunch Bloomberg

Crypto executives fear investor backlash over Trump memecoins. President Donald Trump’s launch of memecoins, $TRUMP and $MELANIA, days before his inauguration has sparked controversy in the crypto industry. Initially valued at $14.5 billion and $3 billion, respectively, the tokens have since lost half their value, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and investor exploitation. Critics, including lawmakers and industry executives, warn that the coins undermine the credibility of the crypto sector, which has worked to rebuild trust following high-profile frauds. About 80% of the tokens are owned by Trump-affiliated entities, further fueling allegations of self-enrichment. Observers fear the move could hurt legitimate crypto innovation. Financial Times Wall Street Journal

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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