10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
U.S. conducts more strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen
Israel carries out airstrikes against Hezbollah in south Lebanon
Pakistan warns Iran of retaliation following drone strikes
Putin threatens Ukraine with “irreparable blow” while Zelensky warns leaders at Davos.
THE ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
U.S. hits Houthi anti-ship missiles after vessels hit in Red Sea. The U.S. launched new strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. U.S. Central Command said the strikes destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles that were ready to launch. The strikes came after the Houthis hit two commercial ships in the Red Sea — a Greek-owned carrier and a U.S.-owned freighter —with missiles within 24 hours. The U.S. strikes on Houthi targets aim to deter further attacks by the group in the Red Sea, though U.S. officials have stressed they want to avoid regional escalation. White House spokesperson John Kirby said that while U.S. actions have not fully stopped Houthi attacks, this was not immediately expected and subsequent retaliatory strikes by the rebels have been “smaller” and not effective. Reuters Washington Post New York Times Bloomberg
U.S. to relist Houthis as specially designated global terrorists. U.S. officials said yesterday that the Biden Administration plans to announce today that it has placed Yemen’s Houthi rebels back on a list of foreign terrorist organizations. The special designation to be imposed does not include sanctions for providing “material support” or impose travel bans, as the previous listing as a foreign terrorist organization did. The previous designation had been imposed by the Trump Administration but was lifted by President Biden to keep humanitarian aid flowing to war-torn Yemen. Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times
US and UK airstrikes stemming Iran’s weapons supply to Houthis, officials say. Western officials say Iran has not resupplied Houthi rebels by sea since airstrikes by the U.S. and U.K. in Yemen last week, leading to cautious optimism that the military action has been successful in disrupting the supply of weapons to the group. The U.S. hit four Houthi missiles in Yemen in a preemptive strike yesterday after two commercial ships in the Red Sea, one Greek and one American, were struck by missiles over a 24-hour period. Bloomberg
Shell pulls tankers from Red Sea. Shell Plc suspended shipments in the Red Sea yesterday, becoming the latest company to heed the U.S. Navy’s advice to stay away from the area. CEO Wael Sawan said the company will continue monitoring the situation daily. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
Houthi attacks starting to reshape shipping flows. The Washington Post is out with a new piece that analyzes the impact of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on the global shipping industry. Ongoing attacks by the group, and the fear of increasing violence has already caused many shipping giants to avoid the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, responsible for almost 1/5 of all U.S. freight that arrives by sea. Opting for much longer routes, shippers and manufacturers have already felt the impact of higher costs, with Tesla recently announcing the closure of a facility in Germany due to increased costs of supplies. Analysts say that global supply chains have endured, over the past four years, the coronavirus pandemic, rising inflation and war in Europe, but the violence in the Red Sea is having an outsized impact on routine commerce. Washington Post
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Hold Iran accountable for its backing of Houthis. Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI and Cipher Brief Expert Norman T. Roule calls for participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos to hold Iran accountable for its support of Yemen’s Houthi rebels: “Every official and journalist at #WEF should ask Iran's foreign minister and any other Iranian attendee why Tehran is doing so much damage to the global economy with weapons shipments to the Houthis. Failure to do so risks reinforcing Tehran's sense of impunity. Worse, it also puts at risk the lives of maritime and military personnel transiting the region. Every journalist attending #WEF should also ask those meeting Iran's foreign minister if they did indeed raise this issue.” X
Gaza combat surges anew as Israel tanks storm back into areas they left. Israeli tanks re-entered parts of northern Gaza, reigniting intense combat after a brief withdrawal as part of a transition to smaller, targeted operations. Explosions and gunfire were reported, and Israel's Iron Dome defenses intercepted rockets fired by militants from Gaza. Israel claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas fighters in clashes in Beit Lahiya. Gaza health authorities reported 158 casualties in the past 24 hours, with the conflict's overall toll reaching 24,285. The White House is involved in discussions to secure the release of more hostages held by Hamas. The war has caused a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and Qatar brokered a deal for humanitarian aid. Reuters
Israel carries out airstrikes against Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Israel conducted “aerial and artillery strikes” on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon “within a short amount of time” on Tuesday. A security source said Israeli forces launched over 14 air strikes on targets in the Saluki valley, describing the attack as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since border hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah started after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel. The source said Hezbollah has used the valley to launch rockets at Israel. Israel’s army said it hit dozens of Hezbollah military infrastructure that it said the group used to attack Israeli civilians and soldiers. Hezbollah claimed it launched rocket attacks against Israeli positions on Tuesday. Reuters France 24 Stratfor
U.S. Senate rejects human rights report as condition for Israel aid. The Senate voted 72-11 to table a resolution by Sen. Bernie Sanders that would have required the State Department to report on potential human rights violations by Israel in its conflict with Hamas. The resolution, under the Foreign Assistance Act, aimed to assess the indiscriminate nature of Israel’s bombing campaign. The report would be a basis for freezing or altering U.S. aid to Israel if violations were found. Republicans criticized the resolution, saying it would hamper Israeli efforts to destroy Hamas and that any ceasefire would let Hamas regroup. Some Democrats also opposed the resolution, including Democrat Chris Coons, who said direct engagement with Israel and the Biden administration are better than potentially suspending U.S. aid or publicly rebuking Israel. Politico New York Times Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera
Blinken says Arab countries not keen to rebuild Gaza if it will be 'leveled' again. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday that Arab countries are not eager to assist in rebuilding Gaza if it is just going to be leveled again within a few years. In a CNBC interview in Davos, Blinken said there is a “new equation” in the Middle East in which Israel’s Arab neighbors are prepared to integrate Israel into the region but also are committed to a pathway to a Palestinian state. Blinken said the U.S. and Arab countries believe that until the issue of statehood is addressed, there will not be peace and security in the region. Reuters
Qatar says two-state solution needed for Gaza reconstruction, Houthi attacks will be stopped with end to Gaza war. Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said on Tuesday that attracting financial aid for Gaza’s reconstruction depends on agreeing to a path to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Thani said that only a viable, sustainable two-state solution will provide stability that will give international donors confidence to commit funding. Separately, he said that strikes against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis will not stop the rebels from attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, but ending the war in Gaza will. Bloomberg Reuters
Saudi Arabia says it could still recognize Israel if Palestine statehood addressed. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Tuesday that Riyadh could recognize Israel under a broader agreement that includes Palestinian statehood. Normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could significantly alter Middle East geopolitics, but discussions on a deal have been disrupted by the Israel-Hamas war. Prince Faisal’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos suggest a possibility that normalization could still be accomplished in the future. Reuters
E.U. sanctions Hamas political leader in Gaza. The European Union imposed sanctions on Yahya Sinwar, the political leader of Hamas in Gaza, over the group's attack on Israel in October. The EU, which considers Hamas a terrorist organization, subjected Sinwar to an asset freeze and prohibited E.U. citizens from financial transactions with him. Israel’s foreign minister welcomed the move as a “just and moral decision.” A Hamas media advisor called the sanctions a show of bias and a “double-standard policy.” Politico Reuters
EU states give initial backing to Red Sea naval mission to counter Houthis. European diplomats said yesterday that EU member countries have given their initial support to a naval mission to protect ships in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. Several diplomats said they hope the process can be fast-tracked. EU foreign ministers are scheduled to discuss details this coming Monday. Reuters Bloomberg
Benjamin Netanyahu faces political backlash over Israel’s hostage strategy. Pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prioritize the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, with growing support within his war cabinet and opposition leaders calling for a halt to military operations to enable negotiations. While public polls in Israel showed that more than 57% of Israelis prioritize the hostages' return over toppling Hamas in Gaza, Netanyahu continues to argue that only sustained military pressure can secure their release. However, dissent within his government and growing public sentiment challenge this stance. Financial Times
Israel’s President Goes to Davos With Families of Hamas Hostages. President Isaac Herzog of Israel is attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, accompanied by family members of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Herzog aims to increase international pressure for their release. He will deliver a speech at the forum, hold meetings, and share details of atrocities committed by Hamas. The hostage event will be hosted by Palantir Technologies, with CEO Alex Karp speaking. Herzog's wife, Michal, will participate in anti-Semitism panels alongside Douglas Emhoff and Jonathan Greenblatt. Hamas, a designated terrorist group, kidnapped 240 people and killed 1,200 in October 2023. Bloomberg
ANALYSIS- Israel’s War in Gaza Enters Its Most Perilous Phase Yet. The Wall Street Journal is out with new analysis on the Israel-Hamas war, saying that the conflict is entering a new, and more ‘perilous’ phase. Israeli forces are engaged in a complex battle to destroy Hamas in Khan Younis, the largest city in the southern Gaza Strip, where tunnels and underground passages pose a significant challenge. While the Israeli military largely controls northern Gaza, their progress in the south is facing difficulties as they close in on a densely populated area, with an international outcry growing over civilian casualties. Political impasses over Gaza's governance further complicate the situation. Israel's military is under pressure to continue the fight, but the displaced Palestinian population is running out of places to flee. Wall Street Journal
OPINION - Team Biden Needs a Reset on Israel. The NY Times published an op-ed by Daniel Levy, the President of the U.S./Middle East Project where Levy argues that the Biden administration's efforts to influence Israel's actions in the ongoing Gaza conflict have been largely ineffective. Israel has continued its military operations in Gaza, causing civilian casualties and humanitarian suffering. Levy suggests that the U.S. should take a more assertive approach, including demanding an immediate ceasefire, conditioning military aid on ending the conflict, and being guided by the findings of the International Court of Justice. Additionally, the U.S. should challenge Israel to propose a plan for ensuring equal rights for all living under its control. Levy argues that without a change in approach, the U.S. will face consequences and damage to its global reputation. NY Times
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Putin threatens Ukraine with “irreparable blow” while Zelensky warns leaders at Davos. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine's statehood could face an "irreparable blow" if it continues to resist Moscow. He insisted that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed and dismissed Western and Ukrainian "peace formulas" as "prohibitive demands." Putin mocked a series of meetings among Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky and various foreign leaders as “pointless.” The fourth of these meetings took place this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “If anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky warned in a hard-hitting speech at a Davos session…. “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.” He said that Europeans must understand that Putin's ambitions could not be sated with victory in Ukraine. "In fact, Putin embodies war,” Zelensky said. “He will not change ... We must change. We all must change to the extent that the madness that resides in this man's head or any other aggressor's head will not prevail.”Reuters Reuters Financial Times Associated Press
Zelensky at Davos promotes peace plan, meets international investors. In a speech to the assembled financiers and economists, he promoted his peace plan, urged stiffer sanctions on Russia and talked reconstruction. “We need you in Ukraine to build, to reconstruct, to restore our lives,” he said. On the sidelines, he met with major investors, including Jamie Dimon and other executives of JPMorgan Chase, Ukraine’s largest U.S. lender, plus executives of BlackRock, Bridgewater Associates, the Carlyle Group, Blackstone, Dell and ArcelorMittal. "It is important for us to attract private capital to the reconstruction of Ukraine,” Zelensky said on Telegram. “We hope that JP Morgan will help attract a large number of global investors and corporations to the Ukrainian economy." Zelensky held a separate meeting with Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda, on the same day Polish truckers finally lifted their blockade of three crossings with Ukraine blocked in November. They had protested the EU's liberalization of transit rules for Ukrainian truckers, causing long lines on the border and undermining Ukraine's economy. “It’s not a big secret that we are facing a fatigue with this war,” Duda said at a press briefing at Davos. NY Times Reuters Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent Bloomberg
Russian missiles hit Kharkiv. Two Russian missiles struck a residential area in Kharkiv Tuesday, injuring 17 people and damaging at least 10 buildings, including a former medical center. Also on Tuesday, Ukrainian officials urged evacuation of 3,000 people from two dozen villages in the Kharkiv region to evacuate, citing Russian attacks. A drone attack in Odessa injured three civilians and damaged buildings. Reuters France 24 Kyiv Independent
In phone call with Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledges $7.6 billion in aid to Ukraine. A spokesman for Scholz said the leaders agreed that it was of the utmost importance to provide Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military assistance to resist Russia. A White House statement said the two leaders "coordinated on their countries' ongoing steadfast support to Ukraine in the face of Russia's war of aggression." Scholz has balked at Ukraine’s request for German-made Taurus missiles,which have a range of up to 500 kilometers, to avoid provoking Russia. German news outlet NTVreported yesterday Germany's primary opposition parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) coalition, will call for a Bundestag vote on the Taurus missiles as soon as today. In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters Tuesday he will travel to Kyiv next month to sign a bilateral security agreement with Kyiv “to help Ukraine to hold the front line and protect its skies." Macron promised France would soon deliver 40 Scalp long-range missiles and "several hundred" bombs to Ukraine. Deutsche Welle Politico EU Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent Kyiv Independent
Latvia forms coalition to send drones to Ukraine. Latvia is spearheading a coalition of nearly 20 countries to supply Ukrainian forces with thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to Defense Minister Andris Spruds. This initiative, announced last month, aims to supply Ukraine with both unarmed surveillance drones and armed UAVS that can target Russian forces with explosives. Ukraine is developing its own drone manufacturing industry and this year aims to produce 1 million small surveillance UAVs with so-called first-person view, enabling the pilot to see what the camera sees as if he were in the cockpit. Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister of strategic industries, said Ukraine also intends to produce 10,000 mid-range and 1,000 long-range strike drones. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent
EU confident of Orbán U-turn on allowing money to Ukraine. Hungary is reportedly ready to lift its opposition to EU funding for Ukraine, potentially resolving a deadlock that has persisted since December. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had blocked a €50 billion four-year funding package for Ukraine, which required unanimous support from EU member states. The EU and Hungary are now negotiating on what concessions might be offered to Orbán in return for his agreement, with both sides hoping for a deal before the leaders' summit on February 1. Orbán has often used Hungary's support for EU initiatives as leverage to extract concessions, but the EU is determined not to allow regular "blackmailing." Politico
Slovakia’s leader sides with Hungary’s Orbán against the EU’s $54 billion aid package for Ukraine.Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, in Budapest for talks, backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s position that the aid package should not go forward, on grounds that the war in Ukraine cannot be resolved militarily. But European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, speaking to reporters in Davos Tuesday, said Europe intended to fund Ukraine “with or without” Hungary's approval. "My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27 (countries). And if this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26," she said. AP Euronews Kyiv Independent
Denmark and the Netherlands prepare joint delivery of tanks. Danish officials said the first two of 14 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks, along with spare parts and ammunition will go to Kyiv by summer. Kyiv has been pleading for modern tanks. A tank repair facility has been opened in Poland. Kyiv Independent
UN says Russia’s intense attacks on Ukraine sharply increased civilian casualties in December. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine issued a report yesterday which said Russia’s intense missile and drone attacks across Ukraine resulted in a sharp increase in casualties in December, with more than 100 killed and almost 500 wounded. The report said there were 592 verified casualty reports last month, 26.5% more than the 468 reported in November. Mission head Danielle Bell said the number of civilian casualties had been decreasing steadily in 2023 until the latest wave of attacks in December and early this month. Associated Press
Russian National Guard officer sentenced to six years for buying shoddy air defense systems for Crimea. Col. Sergei Volkov spent $4.5 million on two radar-based air defense systems that were supposed to protect the bridge which links southern Russia to Crimea from Ukrainian attack drones. A military court found that the systems were old and inadequate, leaving the crucial bridge exposed to drone strikes. The bridge, dear to Putin, was severely damaged in 2022 by a massive explosion. Ukrainian security forces claimed credit. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
Biden summons Congressional leaders to White House to talk money for Ukraine, Israel,
border. At today’s face to face meeting, Biden will press personally and aggressively for his $110.5 billion funding package. Republican lawmakers want more restrictive policies for migrants seeking asylum and humanitarian parole. Some House conservatives, notably, House Speaker Mike Johnson, oppose a Senate-passed security package that couples military assistance for Ukraine with a crackdown on the border. But the measure is favored by both Democrats and Republicans on House national security committees. New York Times Kyiv Independent Politico
Northrop successfully test fires rocket motor of new U.S. nuclear missile. Northrop Grumman successfully conducted a full-scale static fire test of the second-stage solid-rocket motor for the LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile. The test, in a vacuum chamber simulating high-altitude conditions in an actual launch, aimed to assess the motor's. Northrop and the Air Force now plan to start rocket motor qualification tests for both the first and second stages of the three-stage missile. Sentinel is the Air Force's new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to replace the LGM-30G Minuteman III. It is estimated to cost around $100 billion and is currently in the engineering and development phase. The program is reportedly facing challenges like as staffing shortages, supply chain issues, and software problems that could increase costs and delay completion from 2029 to Spring 2030. Defense News
Space Development Agency awards contracts for 54 missile-tracking satellites. The Space Development Agency (SDA) awarded contracts totaling about $2.5 billion to Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, and newcomer Sierra Space for the construction of 54 satellites as part of the Tranche 2 Tracking Layer. This layer will be used to detect and track advanced missiles from low Earth orbit, enhancing U.S. space-based missile warning, tracking, and defense capabilities. Each of the companies will produce 18 satellites each for the constellation. Lockheed's contract is valued at up to $890 million and L3Harris's is at $919 million. Sierra Space received $740 million, marking its first major defense satellite contract. The SDA plans to launch the Tranche 2 satellites in April 2027, contributing to the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. C4ISRNET
Highway robberies ‘rampant’ under AMLO, Mexican business group says – Almost 85,000 transport trucks – 46 a day – have been robbed on Mexican highways under president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a new study by the Confederation of Industrial Chambers (Concamin), representing 125 Mexican business associations, concludes. Truck hijacking and robberies are “rampant” and “out of control, the group charged, costing the Mexican economy $415 million a year. The Mexican president, known as AMLO, has been accused of going soft on crime ever since his 2018 campaign, when he declared his government would stop confronting cartel violence and instead would offer “abrazos, no balazos,” hugs, not bullets. For years, Mexico has persistently logged one of the world’s highest homicide rates – 25 killings per 100,000 people in 2022, down from 28/100,000 in 2021 but more than triple the U.S. murder rate, 6.3 homicides per 100,000 in 2022. Since Mexico is the U.S. top trading partner, highway robbery in Mexico is contributing to U.S. inflation, a thorny issue that has stark implications for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. Mexico News Daily
Canada restricts Indian students, researchers linked to Russia, China, Iran. The number of study permits Canada issued to Indian students fell dramatically late last year, after Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian government agents of killing Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. India kicked out Canadian consular officials who normally process study permits, and fewer Indian students applied for permits to study in Canada. On another track, the Canadian government announced that government grants would no longer be given to researchers with links to universities connected to defense and security entities of countries that could harm security. Most of the proscribed schools on Ottawa’s list are Chinese, but a few are Russian or Iranian. Canadian officials said the measure was designed to protect advanced and emerging technologies from hostile nations. Reuters Reuters
Trudeau says another Trump presidency will be “a step back” for Canada. "It wasn't easy the first time and if there is a second time, it won't be easy either," Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said at an event hosted by the Montreal chamber of commerce. "But we can't imagine a day when it will ever be easy with the Americans.” Trump’s return, he said, would empower “populism that reflects a lot of anguish and fury ... without necessarily providing solutions.” Reuters
Asia and Oceania
China’s top spy agency accuses Taiwan of spreading ‘election interference’ rumors, vows to counter separatist activities. Beijing’s top anti-espionage agency, the Ministry of State Security, accused its Taiwanese counterpart of spreading rumors about Chinese “election interference” ahead of Taiwan’s elections. In a WeChat article, the ministry reiterated that the election results did not change Beijing’s intent to strengthen cross-Strait ties and vowed to continue countering “’Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and interference from external forces.” The post referenced an August 2022 case in which a suspected Taiwanese separatist on the mainland was detained in response to then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. South China Morning Post
China military activities around Taiwan return to normal levels after election. After a brief lull during Taiwan's elections, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has resumed military activities around Taiwan to regular levels. PLA planes made 15 trips near Taiwan in the 24 hours before 6 am on Tuesday, the highest number of sorties in five days. Analysts say the drop in activity during and after the election may have been both to allow Taiwanese to vote, potentially for the party Beijing preferred, as well as give time for the Chinese government to assess the outcome of the election. Experts say that while independence-leaning Lai Ching-te won the vote, China’s response will likely depend on his actions one he takes office in May. South China Morning Post
China says threat of force over Taiwan limited to few separatists, calls for understanding. A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that Beijing will not renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control but emphasized that this is aimed at countering foreign interference and a small number of separatists. Still, the spokesperson said Taiwanese need to overcome biases against China, noting that some have been “poisoned” by ideas of independence and that China will be patient and tolerant as it works to reduce their doubts. The spokesperson did not mention Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te, who China has called a dangerous separatist. Reuters
Taiwan changes reporting of Chinese military activities. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has altered the way it reports Chinese military activities around the island. The ministry said its daily reports on Beijing's activities will no longer include details about the types of Chinese aircraft and their flight paths. Instead, only the distance of these activities from Taiwan and the number of incursions will be disclosed. The change aims to balance public awareness with the need to protect intelligence sources, as well as prevent Beijing from exploiting information gaps for cognitive warfare. Bloomberg
ANALYSIS — Delayed U.S. weapons deliveries heighten Taiwan invasion risk. Taiwan has ordered $19 billion worth of American weapons to counter Beijing's threats, but many of these orders will not be delivered for years due to bureaucratic delays and limited U.S. defense manufacturing capacities. For example, a $2.37 billion deal for Harpoon missiles was signed in 2020 and is scheduled for completion in March 2029. Experts warn that the supply delays complicate Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen its military, leaving it at risk of a potential invasion from China. Still, the U.S. says it is committed to supporting Taiwan’s defense. Some Taiwanese officials are emphasizing homegrown military equipment to fill gaps. Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te is expected to continue outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen’s focus on boosting defense spending, but his party’s loss of control of the island’s legislature could further impact defense procurement and buildup. Wall Street Journal
ANALYSIS- Taiwan’s New Leader Says He’ll Stick to the Status Quo—but His Past Makes the U.S. Nervous. William Lai, Taiwan's incoming president, is known for his resolute stance on independence, causing concerns in Beijing and Washington. Lai's victory in Taiwan's presidential election has put him in the spotlight, particularly due to his past comments suggesting a push for formal diplomatic recognition from the US. While Lai is expected to maintain the status quo in Taiwan's relations with China, his determination to uphold Taiwanese sovereignty has raised tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Lai, born into a poor family, has a reputation for stubbornness and resilience, shaped by his challenging upbringing and career in politics. Wall Street Journal
China’s Xi outlines efforts for economic growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday outlined China's path to becoming a financial superpower, emphasizing distinctions from Western models. He highlighted a strong economic foundation, world-leading economic and technological strength, and the Communist Party's leadership. Xi also stressed the importance of preventing systemic financial risks, addressing corruption, and promoting international competitiveness. Xi’s call for a stronger economy comes as China’s post-pandemic recovery is being offset by property sector issues and weak consumer confidence, seen in China’s economic growth rate of 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2023, marking the slowest annual rate of expansion since 1990, apart from the three years of pandemic closures. South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters
China seeks stronger trade ties with E.U. Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday called for more imports from the E.U. and urged the bloc to ease high-tech export restrictions imposed on China and engage in more balanced trade. His comments came at a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Davos. Beijing and the E.U. have faced strained trade relations, accusing each other of protectionism and unfair competition. Von der Leyen reiterated the E.U.’s position to “de-risk,” warning against relying too heavily on trade with China. Li is now in Ireland to discuss bilateral and E.U. relations. South China Morning Post Associated Press
China envoy to Australia dismisses concerns about Indo-Pacific presence. China's ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, reassured that China's growing presence in the Indo-Pacific is focused on policing to maintain “social stability” and not for military security. He emphasized that Pacific Islands countries want to have strong political and trade ties with Beijing, dismissing concerns about China’s influence in the region. His comments come after Nauru switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Xiao specifically urged against unnecessary anxiety from Australia. Australia-China ties have stabilized in recent months, though officials say there is still work to be done on defense. Reuters Associated Press
ANALYSIS- In US-China space race, success depends on lunar landings and orbital ‘parking spots’. China and the United States are racing for strategic dominance in space, particularly around Lagrange points in the Earth-moon system. Lagrange points are stable positions in space where gravitational forces of celestial bodies balance, making them ideal for satellite placement. China has already positioned satellites at Lagrange points and plans to build a lunar base by 2028. The US is working on the Gateway program, aiming to position assets at the Earth-moon L2 point. This competition extends the geopolitical tensions between the two nations, raising concerns about militarization and control of key space routes. South China Morning Post
U.S., South Korea and Japan conduct trilateral naval exercises. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan conducted what may have been their biggest-ever combined naval exercises. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the trilateral naval drills off South Korea’s Jeju Island lasted three days and ended on Wednesday. The exercises involved nine warships, including U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and Aegis destroyers from South Korea and Japan. The drills were a show of strength aimed at bolstering the countries’ deterrence and response capabilities against North Korean threats. The drills came after North Korea’s first ballistic missile test of the year and Pyongyang moved to abandon its commitment to peaceful unification with South Korea. The exercises also came ahead of a trilateral meeting between U.S., South Korean, and Japanese nuclear envoys. Associated Press Korea Times
South Korea sanctions impose sanctions targeting North Korean weapon development. South Korea imposed sanctions on two individuals, three entities, and 11 ships linked to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. This move follows North Korea's recent firing of a new intermediate-range hypersonic missile, which South Korea and the U.S. condemned as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. The latest blacklisted targets are mainly involved in illegal smuggling at sea. The sanctions are part of South Korean efforts to restrict North Korea’s funding sources. Reuters
US, South Korea accelerate troop-funding talks. The US and South Korea have agreed to discuss a potential funding pact for American troops. Talks are expected to begin soon, with Seoul looking to reach an agreement before a potential new Trump administration. Former President Donald Trump had previously asked South Korea for a $5 billion contribution for hosting U.S. troops, a demand viewed as excessive as it was a five-fold increase from the one-year deal in effect from 2020 requiring $1 billion from Seoul. President Joe Biden reached a troop-funding deal in 2021, and efforts to repair relations since then have led to increased military cooperation between the US, South Korea, and Japan. Bloomberg
Australia to produce guided missiles under Lockheed Martin deal. Australia will start producing Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) in 2025 through a $24 million contract with Lockheed Martin. The deal aims to address the Australian Defence Force's lack of long-range strike capabilities following the retirement of F-111 strike aircraft in 2010. Separately, Australia also plans to acquire Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), which have a 500 km range. Analysts emphasize the importance of bolstering Australia's military capabilities amid increasing assertiveness from Beijing. Nikkei Asia
Europe
Secret German war plan leaked which lays out ‘exercise scenario’ for a potential conflict between NATO and Russia. A leaked German government plan envisions a potential escalation of the Ukraine conflict into a broader NATO-Russia war. The exercise scenario predicts a buildup of Russian troops in Belarus and Kaliningrad, leading to NATO deploying forces in Eastern Europe. It outlines a scenario where Russia initiates a new offensive in Ukraine, followed by hybrid warfare in the Baltic states. Russia would then mobilize troops in Belarus and western Russia, possibly targeting the Suwalki Gap. The plan anticipates NATO deploying 300,000 troops but suggests a reaction after the 2024 US presidential election. Germany's Ministry of Defense emphasized it considers various scenarios as part of military training. Euronews
NATO chief: Trump dare not pull U.S. out of alliance. Donald Trump has threatened to quit NATO if he is reelected President – bombast that makes Europeans anxious. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, interviewed by Bloomberg TV at Davos yesterday, said he’s not worried. “The US will remain a staunch and important ally because it is in the security interest of the United States to have more than 30 friends and allies,” Stoltenberg said.“That’s something China and Russia don’t have — it makes the US safer and stronger.” Bloomberg
Belarus signals new nuclear weapon doctrine. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin is reportedly set to present a proposed military doctrine to the government that allows for the potential use of nuclear weapons, according to Belarusian state media. In May 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Khrenin agreed to transfer tactical nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said in December that the transfer process had been completed. The proposed doctrine's details and the number of tactical nuclear weapons Belarus possesses are unknown. The change is reportedly a response to perceived aggression from Poland, according to Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich. Despite concerns, the White House has not adjusted its nuclear threat assessment. Associated Press Defense News Kyiv Independent
Estonian police accuse Russian professor of espionage. Viacheslav Morozov, a Russian-born professor of international politics at the University of Tartu,was arrested yesterday (Tuesday) for spying for Moscow. “The current case is an addition to more than 20 previous ones and illustrates the desire of the Russian intelligence services to infiltrate various areas of Estonian life, including the scientific sector,” Margo Palloson, director of Estonia’s Internal Security Service, said. Associated Press
North Korea’s foreign minister meets with Putin. President Vladimir Putin welcomed Choe Son Hui to Moscow and may go to Pyongyang soon, to pursue more arms for his war on Ukraine. Bloomberg
Moldova swamped with Russians seeking citizenship. Officials in the small country said Russians comprised 70 percent of applicants for Moldovan citizenship, and another 20 percent were Ukrainians. Reuters
Kosovo seeks new U.S. anti-tank weapons. Kosovo's Defense Minister, Ejup Maqedonci, expressed confidence that the U.S. Congress will approve a $75 million deal for Javelin anti-tank missiles and equipment, aimed at enhancing Kosovo's defense capabilities. The deal includes 246 Javelin missiles and 24 launch units. The purchase could further strain relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Tensions have been heightened since a clash between Serb militants and Kosovar police in September. Serbia has expressed disappointment that the U.S. is considering the arms sale to Kosovo. Bloomberg
Middle East
Iran launches strikes on militant bases in Pakistan. Iran launched drone and missile strikes on Pakistan targeting what it said were bases of the militant group Jaish al-Adl. Pakistan described the attacks as an "unprovoked violation" of its airspace and said they caused the death of two children and injuries to three others. The attack follows Iranian strikes in Iraq and Syria, as Iran responds to a recent suicide bombing claimed by the Islamic State. Jaish al-Adl is a Sunni militant group founded in 2012 that largely operates along the border areas in Pakistan. The militants have claimed bombings and kidnappings of Iranian border police. Iran has fought against the militant group, but the airstrikes on Pakistan are unprecedented and could further escalate tensions in the region. Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal CNN Bloomberg New York Times
ANALYSIS- U.S. faces growing challenge in bid to contain Middle East violence. The United States is facing an escalation of military actions by Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Recent incidents include strikes against Houthi militants in Yemen, Iranian strikes in Iraq and Syria, and tit-for-tat actions between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed groups. These events pose a challenge to the Biden administration's efforts to contain violence in the region and avoid direct conflict with Iran. The situation highlights the potential for miscalculation and tensions as the U.S. supports Israel in its conflict with Hamas, which has led to significant casualties in Gaza. The U.S. is taking steps to deter further escalation. Washington Post
Saudi Arabia ‘Incredibly Concerned’ About Regional Security. Saudi Arabia expresses "incredible concern" for Middle East security due to the fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict, emphasizing the need for a Gaza ceasefire and diplomacy to address Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The Houthi group has been disrupting the Red Sea's freedom of navigation since mid-November. The US and UK recently launched missiles at Houthi targets in Yemen after warnings went unheeded. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, seeks a peace deal with the Houthis to end the Yemeni civil war. The country is also open to recognizing Israel but insists on a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Bloomberg
Turkey’s Erdogan vows continued strikes on Kurdish militants in Syria, Iraq. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to expand military operations against Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria. This comes in response to an attack on a Turkish military base in Iraq that resulted in the deaths of nine soldiers. Turkish warplanes and drones have targeted suspected Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) locations in Syria and Iraq. Erdogan said that Turkish jets had struck a total of 114 targets in both countries over the past five days. He said operations will continue until the source of terrorist actions in northern Iraq is secured, and terror nests in Syria are destroyed. The PKK is designated a terror organization by Turkey and its Western allies, including the United States. Associated Press
Saudi Arabia yet to join BRICS. Saudi Arabia’s commerce minister confirmed on Tuesday that it has not yet officially joined the BRICS bloc of developing nations, past the proposed joining date of January 1. The Saudi government has not commented further. Reuters
Africa
Sudan breaks off talks with African mediators, resumes battle against militants. A coalition of East African nations has been trying to mediate between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary force calling itself the Rapid Forces (RSF). The army suspended the talks yesterday. Its leaders announced they would not attend a meeting scheduled for Jan. 18 in Kampala, Uganda, where RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, has agreed to travel. Reuters Associated Press
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Iran, Hezbollah step up cyberattacks against Israel. Iran-backed Hezbollah and Russia-linked hackers have intensified cyberattacks against Israel since the conflict with Hamas began, according to Check Point Software Technologies' CTO, Dorit Dor. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Dor said that while the current war focuses on Hamas, Iran is leveraging its cyber strength and activating Hezbollah to target Israel. The tactics employed include distributed denial-of-service attacks and intelligence-gathering efforts. Israeli targets have reportedly experienced a 20% rise in cyberattacks since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, with defense-linked companies facing a 50% increase. Russia is also reportedly playing a role in cyberattacks against Israel, though it is unclear if these are state-backed or opportunistic. Bloomberg
OpenAI working with U.S. military on AI tools. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is collaborating with the Pentagon on various projects. OpenAI, along with Microsoft, Anthropic, and Google, is working with the US Defense Advanced Research Agency on the AI Cyber Challenge to enhance cybersecurity capabilities. OpenAI is also assisting efforts to prevent veteran suicide. This marks a shift from OpenAI's earlier ban on providing its AI for military purposes. The company has removed language prohibiting military applications from its terms of service but maintains a ban on using its technology to develop weapons or harm people. Bloomberg
Deere using Starlink satellites to link farm equipment. Deere & Co. is working with SpaceX to use the company’s Starlink satellites to connect tractors, planters, and other equipment in remote areas with Deere’s digital operations center. The services will connect farmers with digital tools to help them plant, monitor, and harvest crops. The Starlink service will launch in Brazil and areas of the U.S. without insufficient Wi-Fi service later this year, with more countries to follow. Experts say the deal shows the expansion of satellite services across the economy, as well as the growing influence of Starlink. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg
Launch of strategic chips center reflects big U.S. bet on semiconductors. The Biden administration is making semiconductors a focal point of its economic policy, with $52 billion in subsidies rolled out for the US semiconductor industry in a program called "Chips for America." A national, nonprofit semiconductor research center called the National Center for the Advancement of Semiconductor Technology (Natcast) has been established to coordinate R&D across companies and universities. This move is in response to concerns about China's growing chip industry, and Natcast aims to ensure the US retains leadership in next-gen chip technologies. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Natcast the "centerpiece" of efforts to enhance the US semiconductor R&D ecosystem. Washington Post
Detained Russian student accused of helping Ukrainian hackers. A Russian tech student, Seymour Israfilov, may face treason charges for allegedly helping Ukrainian hackers carry out cyberattacks against Russia. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) detained the student in October and said he has "pro-Ukrainian views" and worked for a Ukrainian hacker group known as Cyber Anarchy Squad. If found guilty, Israfilov could face up to 20 years in prison on charges of treason. Russian authorities commonly arrest suspects in cases related to allegations of supporting or participating in cyber activities against Russia. The Record
Ivanti spots ‘sharp increase’ in targeting of VPN as analysts find 1,700 devices exploited. Ivanti has observed a surge in hackers exploiting two disclosed vulnerabilities in its Connect Secure VPN product, with over 1,700 devices globally exploited since the issues were made public. The vulnerabilities, tracked as CVE-2023-46805 and CVE-2024-21887, were reported by Volexity in December. Ivanti issued a mitigation on January 10 but is still developing an official patch. The company urges customers to apply the mitigation immediately. Patches will be released in a staggered schedule by February 19. Volexity said victims range from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies, including government departments, defense contractors, and financial institutions. Volexity said earlier that hackers allegedly based in China may have exploited the vulnerability, but multiple threat actors around the world may be using it now. The Record
South Korea Lays Out $470 Billion Plan to Build Chipmaking Hub. South Korea plans to establish the world's largest chipmaking cluster, with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix investing over $470 billion by 2047. The initiative aims to build 13 new chip plants and three research facilities, expanding the existing 21 fabs across the Pyeongtaek to Yongin area. The goal is to produce 7.7 million wafers monthly by 2030, increase self-sufficiency in semiconductors, and grow the global logic chip production market share from 3% to 10% by 2030. South Korea seeks to protect its chip sector, which accounts for 16% of total exports, amid stiff competition from Japan and Taiwan. Bloomberg
The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.
Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion inThe Cipher Brief
