Report for Wednesday, January 15, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Report for Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Ukraine Suffers Power Cuts Following Large-scale Russian Missile Strike

NATO to deploy drones, aircraft to counter wave of Baltic Sea cable attacks

South Korea’s president arrested for imposing martial law

The Philippines says China is driving it `to the wall’ with aggression in the South China Sea

Trump CIA nominee reportedly favors aggressive espionage, cyber operations against China

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Hopes for a Gaza Ceasefire – and What Might Follow.  In a rare case of what might be called “transition diplomacy” in the U.S., senior officials from the Biden administration – CIA Director William Burns and Middle East special envoy Brett McGurk – have been joined by the Trump Administration’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in the efforts to bring Israel and Hamas to an agreement.  The Cipher Brief spoke with Ambassador Gary Grappo and Dr. Emile Nakhleh, experts in our network and longtime experts when it comes to the Middle East, about the prospects for an agreement and what might follow.  The Cipher Brief

Assessing Trump’s Panama Canal Claims.  Pulitzer Prize Winning Journalist Walter Pincus, contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief, explores President-elect Donald Trump’s obsession with reclaiming the Panama Canal.  He pinpoints two dangers – first, that Trump’s statements are so wild that Russia and China won’t take him seriously, on anything. Second, that they will – and take his obvious approval of territorial conquests as approval of their own land grabs, Russia for chunks of Ukraine, China for Taiwan. The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Gaza ceasefire appears close.  Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of dozens of hostages, Reuters reported Tuesday. Mediators from the United States and Qatar said Israel and the Palestinian militant group were at the closest point yet to sealing a deal.  An Israeli official said progress has been made, but the details are being finalized. All three officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks.  Reuters  Associated Press CNN The Guardian 

Israel aims airstrikes at 50-plus targets in Gaza over Monday and early Tuesday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Forces said it struck more than 50 terrorist targets across Gaza Strip, including “terrorist cells, weapons storage facilities, underground infrastructure, anti-tank fire positions, and Hamas military structures.” One precision strike targeted an unnamed “terrorist who served in a central position…operating inside a command-and-control center, which previously had served as a school in Daraj Tuffah, and was used by the terrorist to plan and execute attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel.  IDF/Telegram    

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Biden leaves nearly $4 billion in US aid to Ukraine unused. What will happen to it under Trump? President Joe Biden’s administration is leaving $3.8 billion in unused Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) aid for Ukraine to the incoming administration of Donald Trump. Biden prioritized rapid military aid shipments during his final months, but logistical and readiness challenges prevented full utilization of the funds. Critics, including Daria Kaleniuk from Kyiv’s Anti-Corruption Action Center, argue that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry failed to adapt to delays and missed opportunities to redirect funding to other arms assistance, including lower-priority equipment that might still be available in stockpiles. "By the time we realized, it was too late," Kaleniuk said. Trump now controls the unused funds. Analysts suggest he may leverage this as a political tool, though Republican skepticism toward foreign aid complicates prospects for additional packages. Under Biden, Ukraine received $66.5 billion in security aid, including HIMARS and Patriot systems, but delays in providing advanced weaponry weakened Ukraine’s defenses. This contributed to territorial losses, such as Avdiivka. The transition raises concerns over potential delays in decision-making under Trump. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Suffers Power Cuts Following Large-scale Russian Missile Strike. Ukraine experienced a large-scale Russian missile attack on Wednesday morning, leading to emergency power cuts in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kirovohrad regions. The governor of Ukraine's western Lviv region said two facilities, in the Drohobych and Stryi districts, were damaged in the attack. In neighboring Ivano-Frankivsk, the governor said local air defenses were fending off Russian attacks on facilities there. Ukrenergo, the national grid operator, reported the outages. Ukrainian air defense indicated that western and northwestern areas were primarily targeted. This marks the first such attack in 2025 and follows Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian energy and military facilities in the Volga region. Bloomberg Reuters New York Times

A final rundown of the drones committed to Ukraine by the Biden administration. The Biden administration has provided extensive drone support to Ukraine during its presidency, showcasing a range of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and combat. Here are some of the key drone platforms:

• Phoenix Ghost: A family of loitering munitions with advanced autonomous capabilities, including the Dominator and Disruptor, offering long-range, GPS-denied operations and multi-mission capabilities.

• Switchblade: Kamikaze drones in two variants (300 and 600), with precision targeting, anti-armor capabilities, and rapid deployment.
• Altius-600: A lightweight, tube-launched drone with ISR and electronic warfare applications, operable from various platforms.
• Jump 20: A Group 3 VTOL drone providing 13+ hours of endurance and multi-sensor ISR capabilities.
• Black Hornet: Pocket-sized ISR drones delivering live video and thermal imaging for dismounted troops.
• Scan Eagle: A long-endurance ISR platform with altitudes up to 19,500 feet and 18 hours of operation.
• Penguin: Versatile, long-endurance UAS with multiple configurations for tactical operations.
• Raven and Puma: Portable, hand-launched ISR drones with varied endurance and payload capabilities.
• Cyberlux K8: Lightweight, FPV-enabled drones designed for beyond-line-of-sight engagements. DefenseScoop

Russia sees a shift from Trump towards recognizing 'realities' in Ukraine. Russia claims a shift in tone from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, suggesting recognition of "realities" in Ukraine, including Russia’s territorial control. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed Trump’s openness to diplomacy. Lavrov said that Russia was ready to discuss security guarantees "for the country that is now called Ukraine," but Moscow would need assurances that it could not be threatened on its western borders with Europe. Lavrov specifically praised Trump’s comments earlier this month in which he said that NATO’s plans to open its doors to Ukraine had led to the hostilities. “NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that” Lavrov said. “It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a U.S. but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements.” Trump and his aides also hint at limits to retaking all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, raising concerns in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push for NATO membership and U.S. security guarantees, fearing Trump may pressure Ukraine into concessions or reduce U.S. military support. Reuters  Associated Press

Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, an economist says. Russia’s financial reserves are rapidly depleting and could run out by fall 2025, jeopardizing its war efforts, according to Swedish economist Anders Åslund. Liquid reserves in the National Wealth Fund have declined from $117 billion in 2021 to $31 billion as Russia plans a record $130.5 billion defense budget for 2025. Western sanctions have restricted borrowing, foreign debt has dropped sharply, and economic challenges such as inflation, currency decline, and labor shortages persist. Åslund predicts budget cuts, price controls, and rationing could follow, limiting Russia’s ability to sustain the war and heightening economic instability for President Vladimir Putin. Business Insider

Zelensky visits Poland after progress in World War II dispute. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Warsaw on Wednesday following progress in resolving a historical dispute over World War II exhumations. The Volhynia massacres (1943-45), during which over 100,000 Poles were killed by Ukrainian nationalists and thousands of Ukrainians died in reprisals, have strained ties. Poland recently hailed a breakthrough after Ukraine agreed to allow exhumations, with work expected to start in April. Zelenskyy will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to discuss the issue and broader cooperation. Poland’s EU presidency prioritizes Ukraine’s security as Kyiv seeks support amid Russia’s war. Reuters 

Kallas Says Europe Should Increase Pressure on Moscow In Push To End War. In an interview on Tuesday with RFE/RL and European newspapers, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized that Kyiv and its allies must maintain pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential peace negotiations. “We should not underestimate our own capabilities and overestimate the Russians,” she said, citing Russia’s economic strain, depleted cash reserves, and reliance on North Korean soldiers as evidence of vulnerability. Kallas stressed that unity within the EU on sanctions and military aid remains essential despite resistance from some governments. She warned against any cease-fire allowing Russia to regroup and advocated for sustainable peace. On U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s claims of swiftly ending the war, Kallas said any agreement must include Europe and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. She also highlighted the need to address attacks on critical infrastructure, urging enhanced maritime law and tighter sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet circumventing oil sanctions. RFE/RL

Zelensky says that equipping troops takes priority over lowering the draft age. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized on Tuesday that Ukraine’s priority is equipping its military rather than lowering the draft age further, citing the need to sustain over 100 brigades with adequate resources. While U.S. lawmakers and NATO allies have encouraged Ukraine to reduce the draft age from 25 to 18 to address manpower shortages, Kyiv has resisted, pointing to equipment deficits and the economic strain of drafting younger workers. In April 2024, Ukraine lowered the draft age to 25, adding 50,000 troops, short of the military’s needs. Kyiv Independent

Russia says its forces captured two settlements in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday reported capturing Terny near Siversk and Neskuchne in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledged fighting in these areas but stated that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks on Neskuchne. Russian advances include capturing Kurakhove and approaching Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. Pokrovsk’s colliery, vital for Ukraine’s steel industry, has suspended production. Independent verification of battlefield reports remains unavailable, though Ukraine’s DeepState blog confirmed some Russian gains near Neskuchne. Reuters

Zelensky releases an additional video of captured North Korean soldier. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has released another video of a captured North Korean soldier, accusing Russia of using North Korean troops to prolong its war. The soldier, captured in Russia’s Kursk region, revealed a limited understanding of Ukraine and carried falsified Russian identification. South Korea, recognizing all Koreans as citizens under its constitution, announced plans to discuss the transfer of these POWs from Ukraine. Neither captured soldier expressed interest in defecting, and both governments are collaborating to exchange information about the captives. This highlights Russia's controversial use of foreign troops and Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to expose such practices internationally. Yonhap News Agency Militarnyi

Australia summons Russian ambassador over reports captured soldier killed. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Wednesday that the Russian ambassador was summoned over reports that Oscar Jenkins, a Melbourne teacher captured last year while fighting for Ukraine, had been killed by Russia. "We'll await the facts to come out. But if there has been any harm caused to Oscar Jenkins, that's absolutely reprehensible, and the Australian government will take the strongest action possible," Albanese said. Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that all options, including expelling the Russian ambassador, remain on the table. Jenkins, reportedly captured last year, appeared in a video in combat uniform. Australia has strongly supported Ukraine, supplying military aid and imposing sanctions on around 1,000 Russian individuals and entities. Reuters 

Drone hits distillery in Russia's Tambov Oblast, local media reports. A drone reportedly struck a distillery in Novaya Lyada, Tambov Oblast, Russia, on Tuesday night, causing a fire near a military training ground, according to local residents via Astra Telegram. Russian officials claimed the drone was intercepted, exploding in a tree. This incident follows Ukraine’s largest drone and missile strikes on Russian military and industrial sites on January 13-14, targeting chemical plants, refineries, and Engels airbase ammunition depots, as confirmed by Ukrainian Security Service sources. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Jan. 14. The Kremlin insists on achieving its invasion goals, including Ukraine's demilitarization, government dissolution, and NATO exclusion, in any peace talks. Nikolai Patrushev ruled out Russia ceding occupied Ukrainian territories and claimed sham referendums legitimized Russia's annexation. Russian officials deny Ukraine's independent identity to justify efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state. Patrushev emphasized exclusive U.S.-Russia negotiations, sidelining Ukraine and other Western nations. Potential Russian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast may serve propaganda purposes but lack tactical significance. Ukraine conducted extensive strikes on Russian military and industrial targets overnight on Jan. 13-14. Ukraine and Moldova face challenges addressing Transnistria's gas crisis amid resistance to external aid. The Kremlin exploits Moldova's energy crisis to justify potential future aggression. Russia experienced a widespread internet outage linked to its censorship system on Jan. 14.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Stuey of War

Opinion: Don’t Give Putin an End-Game Victory in Ukraine. Vitalij Garber warns against granting Russian President Vladimir Putin a perceived victory in Ukraine by freezing the war or abandoning support for Kyiv. Garber argues that allowing Russia to retain occupied territories would elevate Putin to national hero status and reward his imperialist ambitions. He highlights the economic and security risks to the West, noting that Russia would gain access to valuable resources in Donbas while propaganda-driven nationalism continues to motivate its population. Garber criticizes the misconception that negotiations with dictators yield fair compromises, cautioning that rewarding aggression now will embolden future conflicts, costing the West both financially and morally. He emphasizes that supporting Ukraine's sovereignty is essential to preventing long-term global instability. Center for European Policy Analysis

AMERICAS

Tulsi Gabbard’s intel chops don’t impress GOP senators much. Some Senate Republicans say they were underwhelmed by Tulsi Gabbard’s weak grasp of foreign policy and the job of the U.S. intelligence community.  It's not clear that her nomination to be Donald Trump’s Director of National Intelligence is doomed, but more mistakes and lapses could sink it.  In a meeting with Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.), Gabbard couldn’t say what the DNI does, the Wall Street Journal reported. When she met with Sen. Mike Rounds (R., S.D.), Gabbard didn’t seem to understand a highly controversial U.S. national-security surveillance power known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which covers an electronic surveillance program that targets national-security suspects living overseas ​. Wall Street Journal   

Trump’s Canada and Greenland threats weaken Washington’s rivalry with Beijing:  Burns  Nicholas Burns, U.S. Ambassador to China,  said President-elect Donald Trump’s designs on Canada and Greenland will weaken Washington’s ability to confront adversaries such as China. “We’re facing, in Putin, in the Chinese Communist leadership, in Iran, in Venezuela, countries that want to unravel that international order that we have supported,” he said. “The last thing we should do is insult and be disrespectful to the people of Canada or the people of Denmark.” Wall Street Journal   

Trump’s attorney general pick Pam Bondi to be questioned over her independence from the White House.  Pam Bondi, a former Florida attorney general and corporate lobbyist, is likely to be scrutinized over her criticisms of the criminal cases against Donald Trump, and her acquiescence in his threats to seek retribution against Justice Department officials. “The Department of Justice, the prosecutors will be prosecuted — the bad ones,” Bondi said in a 2023 Fox News appearance. “The investigators will be investigated.” Associated Press PBS 

Trump nominee Pete Hegseth weathers Democrats' grilling to emerge largely unscathed. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, faced intense scrutiny during his Senate confirmation hearing. Democratic senators raised concerns about his limited management experience, past opposition to women in combat roles, and allegations of misconduct, including a 2017 sexual assault claim, which Hegseth denied. Despite the rigorous questioning, Hegseth secured critical support from key Republicans, notably Senator Joni Ernst, bolstering his prospects for confirmation. He emphasized his commitment to restoring a "warrior culture" within the military and indicated plans to review senior military leadership based on merit and adherence to lawful orders. The Senate Armed Services Committee is expected to vote on his nomination around the time of Trump's inauguration.  Reuters

US importers buy big from China as Trump threatens high tariffs. U.S. imports from China rose 15% from 2023 as President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs of 10% to 60% on goods from China.  Chinese trade officials said Monday  that their exports surged to record levels in December.  The equivalent of 451,000 40-foot containers of goods from China landed at U.S. seaports in December, up of 14.5% over the same period in 2023, according to trade data supplier Descartes Systems Group. Reuters

Border crossings dwindle. In December, Customs and Border Protection reported 47,300 illegal border crossings — slightly more than in November, when it reported 46,612, approaching the lowest level since July 2020. The first two weeks of January saw 45% fewer crossings than in December, according to senior CBP officials who spoke with reporters during a virtual press conference Tuesday.    Associated Press U.S. Customs and Border Protection 

Biden to ease Cuba sanctions during final days in office. The Biden administration said Tuesday that it will remove Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, citing a lack of evidence to support its designation. This move reverses a 2021 decision by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who accused Cuba of harboring Colombian guerrilla leaders and supporting terrorism. The decision also includes rescinding Trump-era policies, such as the full implementation of the Helms-Burton Act and restrictions on financial transactions with certain Cuban entities. The removal of Cuba from the terrorism list is expected to ease some economic sanctions, although the decades-old U.S. embargo will remain in place. The decision follows international and regional pressure, including advocacy from the E.U., Canada, and leaders like Brazil’s President Lula. The Vatican played a role in the decision, as ongoing talks between Cuba and the Catholic Church resulted in Havana’s agreement to gradually release 553 political prisoners. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel praised the decision but criticized ongoing U.S. sanctions for their continued economic impact. The change, however, is likely to be short-lived, as the incoming Trump administration has signaled its intent to reverse Biden’s policies. Officials like Sen. Marco Rubio, known for his hardline stance on Cuba, are expected to influence the next administration's approach CNN Reuters New York Times Washington Post  

Internal displacement in Haiti, a product of gang violence, has tripled over the past year. The U.N. International Organization for Migration on Tuesday reported that unremitting gang violence in Haiti has caused internal displacement to triple over the past year, surpassing 1 million people. This surge has resulted in a collapse of essential services in Port-au-Prince, worsening food insecurity and leaving children as over half of the displaced population. Forced returns of around 200,000 people, mostly from the Dominican Republic, have further exacerbated the crisis. The number of displacement sites in the capital has increased from 73 to 108, reflecting the intensifying humanitarian emergency. The outgoing U.S. administration has supported temporary status programs for Haitians, but President-elect Donald Trump’s administration plans to scale back such protections, potentially worsening conditions for returnees. The country faces significant challenges, with over 5,600 people killed, 2,200 injured, and nearly 1,500 kidnapped in 2024. Associated Press International Organization for Migration Al Jazeera Euronews   

Five killed in Mexico’s Huitzilac after criminal groups open fire. The town of Huitzilac, in Mexico's Morelos state, was left reeling after five people campaigning for local community resource management positions were gunned down on its main street on Monday. The victims were canvassing ahead of elections when gunmen intercepted them, leaving them dead at the scene. This marks the second mass killing in the area within eight months. Huitzilac, known for violence linked to competing criminal organizations and illegal logging, has become a hotspot for insecurity. Mayor César Dávila Díaz condemned the attack but denied the presence of drug cartels and brushed off political motives. Residents expressed fear and frustration, noting that security improves only temporarily with the presence of National Guard forces, 200 of whom were deployed to patrol the area after the attack. This violence reflects broader security challenges across Mexico, where criminal organizations, including factions of the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels, fight over territory for smuggling routes, extortion, and other illicit activities. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who recently took office, is facing a nationwide struggle with escalating bloodshed. Associated Press  

Venezuelan opposition leader González visits Guatemala. Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González touched down in Guatemala on Tuesday, just days after strongman Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated for his third presidential term. Despite being recognized by several countries as the legitimate winner of Venezuela's presidential election, González postponed his return to Caracas, citing a lack of security conditions. González had been in the Dominican Republic for six days before departing on a private plane. Guatemala's President Bernardo Arévalo is set to meet with González to discuss the situation. Associated Press CNN 

ANALYSIS–From Greenland to Panama and Mexico, leaders are in shock. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent remarks on reclaiming the Panama Canal and acquiring Greenland have sparked international tensions. On Jan. 7, Trump labeled the canal as “vital” to the U.S. and falsely claimed Chinese control, prompting Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino to reject any negotiations. Panama has strengthened ties with China in recent years but may now seek closer relations with the U.S. Meanwhile, Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede dismissed Trump’s assertion that U.S. ownership is necessary for national security. Despite provocative rhetoric, experts predict military actions are unlikely, with Panama and Greenland favoring enhanced diplomatic and economic ties. The Economist

ANALYSIS–Marco Rubio will find China is hard to beat in Latin America. China has become a dominant trade partner in Latin America, prioritizing pragmatic economic relationships over ideology. Argentina’s Rural Society praises China's demand for goods like soybeans, beef, and lithium but notes challenges, including unilateral price cuts and regulatory probes into imports. Republican Senator Marco Rubio, soon to be secretary of state under President-elect Donald Trump, has raised concerns about China’s influence, pointing to a Chinese radar station in Argentina operated by the People’s Liberation Army. Argentina’s libertarian president, Javier Milei, has softened his anti-China rhetoric, welcoming Chinese support for Argentina’s recovery, including a currency swap extension in 2024. China’s strategic investments, such as Peru’s Chancay port, highlight its enduring interests in Latin America, irrespective of political shifts. Regional leaders urge the U.S. to counter China’s influence by offering viable economic alternatives, with successes like the Chilean submarine cable project under President Joe Biden as examples. The Economist

EUROPE

NATO to deploy drones, aircraft to counter wave of Baltic Sea cable attacks. After repeated sabotage incidents linked to Russia, NATO launched the "Baltic Sentry" mission on Tuesday to protect critical undersea cables and infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Finnish President Alexander Stubb highlighted a direct connection between Russia and the Dec. 25 damage to power and data cables, involving the seizure of the Eagle S, a Russian-linked shadow fleet vessel suspected of dragging its anchor across the seabed. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized that any threats to infrastructure would have consequences, including vessel impoundments and arrests. The mission will deploy frigates, naval drones, and patrol aircraft to enhance surveillance and deterrence. Baltic nations and NATO allies, including Sweden and Germany, pledged naval support and collaboration on legal measures to curb shadow fleet activities. Stubb and NATO leaders warned of the environmental risks posed by Russia’s aging fleet and vowed to develop innovative technologies to safeguard infrastructure against future hybrid attacks. Politico EU Financial Times Reuters Associated Press 

German cabinet plans to allow the military to shoot down illegal drones, draft shows. Germany's cabinet plans to approve an amendment to the Aviation Security Act, allowing the military to shoot down illegal drones over critical infrastructure, according to a draft seen on Tuesday. Prompted by recent incidents, including suspected Russian espionage involving drones over Bavarian military sites, the proposal enables local authorities to request military intervention if an imminent, severe threat arises. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government aims to secure Bundestag approval before the February 23 federal election, reflecting heightened vigilance against hybrid threats from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Reuters  

Irregular migration into the European Union fell sharply last year, border agency says. Irregular border crossings into the European Union fell by 38% in 2024, totaling just over 239,000 detections, the lowest since 2021, according to Frontex. This decline is attributed to intensified efforts to counter smuggling networks. Notably, crossings via the Central Mediterranean route dropped 59% due to fewer departures from Tunisia and Libya, while detections on the Western Balkan route fell 78% following regional cooperation. However, arrivals to the Canary Islands surged by 18%, reaching nearly 47,000, the highest since 2009. Frontex also highlighted increasing violence by smugglers and growing instability in regions like the Sahel, emphasizing ongoing challenges. Associated Press 

EU Considers Gradual Ban on Russian LNG and Aluminum. ​​​​The European Union is considering a phased ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and aluminum imports as part of its 16th sanctions package against Moscow for its war on Ukraine. The measures could include restricting vessels in Russia's shadow fleet, imposing stricter export controls on military-use goods, and removing more banks from SWIFT. Russian aluminum imports, which account for 6% of Europe’s total, have halved since 2022, with China absorbing surplus supply. The EU also plans tighter sanctions enforcement, including higher tariffs on agricultural products and fertilizers. Final proposals will align with the war's third anniversary next month. Bloomberg

France is 'far from ready' to build six new nuclear reactors, auditor says. France's €67.4 billion plan to build six European Pressurized Reactor-2 nuclear reactors by 2027 faces obstacles, according to a Court of Auditors report, which concludes that Paris is “far from ready” to proceed. Financing remains uncertain, preventing the supply chain from adequately preparing, and raising the risk of failure. The state-owned utility EDF has delayed its updated cost estimates and plans a final investment decision by early 2026. The Flamanville EPR project, costing €23.7 billion, is deemed only marginally profitable. EDF is also grappling with rising costs at the UK’s Hinkley Point and securing funding for Sizewell C. Interest-free loans from the French government are under consideration. France 24 Reuters 

Swedes recruited by foreign powers on social media to launch attacks, police say. Sweden's National Police Commissioner Petra Lundh said Tuesday that foreign powers are using social media to recruit Swedish gangs and children for violent attacks, citing hybrid threats that combine unconventional and conventional methods. "It's an opponent that doesn't wear a uniform and it's a threat that we can't get at through traditional military defense methods," she said. Attacks on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm, including shootings and a bombing attempt in 2024, illustrate this trend. Sweden, which had the EU's highest gun death rate in 2023, faces rising gang violence. Many perpetrators are minors, some as young as 12, exploited as "disposable assets." The Swedish government is considering banning social media apps for children to combat this escalating security threat. Reuters 

Russia and Vietnam sign an agreement to expand cooperation on nuclear energy. Vietnam and Russia signed an agreement on nuclear energy during Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Hanoi on January 14, 2025. The deal, involving Rosatom and Vietnam's EVN, aims to revive Vietnam's nuclear program to meet its growing energy demands and reduce emissions. Other agreements include maritime research cooperation, digital economy projects, and wireless communication. Despite strong historical ties, trade between the two countries remains modest at $3.6 billion in 2023, hindered by Western sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine, which have complicated financial transactions and diversified Vietnam's defense imports. Associated Press Euronews Reuters 

Britain’s Anti-Corruption Minister Resigns. Tulip Siddiq, Britain's anti-corruption minister and niece of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, resigned on Tuesday, following allegations of her family's embezzlement in Bangladesh. Siddiq denied the accusations, calling them politically motivated. While Britain's ethics adviser found no evidence of impropriety, he noted reputational risks tied to her familial connections. Siddiq’s resignation followed criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer for delayed action. Siddiq stated her role risked distracting the government. Emma Reynolds has replaced her. The controversy also spotlighted Siddiq’s use of London properties linked to Hasina, with Bangladesh’s interim leader calling for restitution. New York Times Associated Press  BBC The Guardian Reuters

The Czech Republic ends its energy dependence on Russian oil imports. The Czech Republic has ended its reliance on Russian oil imports, the government announced on Tuesday. Previously sourcing half its oil, or 4 million metric tons, via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, the country now secures all supplies through the expanded Italian TAL pipeline. This $61 million investment doubled the pipeline’s capacity to 8 million metric tons annually, fully meeting Czechia's needs. Finance Minister Zbyněk Stanjura confirmed that Orlen Unipetrol will cease importing Russian oil by midyear. This move aligns with EU sanctions on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Czechia also ended Russian gas imports earlier this year. Associated Press

Slovak opposition announces no-confidence vote against Fico. Slovakia's opposition parties, including Progressive Slovakia and Freedom and Solidarity, announced plans to initiate a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing his governance failures and pro-Russian foreign policy. Opposition leader Michal Simecka accused Fico of undermining Slovakia’s pro-European stance, saying, “We will not allow Fico to turn Slovakia eastward.” Fico’s controversial December visit to Moscow and threats to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees have fueled criticism. Protests erupted in Bratislava on January 3, with thousands chanting pro-EU slogans and carrying banners reading, “We are Europe” and “Fico, go to Moscow.” Once a staunch supporter of Ukraine, Slovakia has shifted under Fico, halting arms shipments and blaming the West for Russia’s war. Relations with Ukraine soured after a gas transit deal expired. The opposition seeks to use the no-confidence vote to challenge Fico's policies, claiming his leadership is isolating Slovakia from its Western allies. Kyiv Independent

Will Transnistria's gas crisis lead to its collapse and reintegration into Moldova? Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Moldova on Jan. 1 has plunged the Russian-occupied Transnistria into crisis, raising questions about its viability. Transnistria, dependent on free Russian gas, now faces industrial shutdowns and heating shortages, with 72,000 homes affected. Moldova’s offer to arrange European gas purchases was rejected as Transnistria awaits Russian assistance. Analysts doubt reintegration into Moldova, citing risks of Russian aggression and Moldova’s reluctance due to potential pro-Russian voter influence. Instead, Moscow may exploit the energy crisis to destabilize Moldova and boost pro-Russian parties in the upcoming 2025 elections. Experts warn rising energy costs could undermine Moldova’s pro-European government, enabling Kremlin-backed factions to regain influence. "This crisis is shaking the Tiraspol regime," said analyst Eugen Muravschi, but without assertive Moldovan action, change is unlikely. Russia might leverage political instability rather than military force, aiming to stall Moldova’s European integration and secure control through electoral means. Kyiv Independent

Transnistria head travels to Russia for talks amid energy crisis. Vadim Krasnoselsky, the leader of Russian-occupied Transnistria, reportedly traveled to Moscow on Tuesday to address the region's energy crisis, Russian state media reported. The crisis stems from Gazprom's suspension of gas supplies to Moldova on Jan. 1, citing alleged debts by Moldovagaz, a claim Moldovan officials dispute following an international audit. The gas cutoff has caused severe power outages and industrial disruptions in Transnistria. Despite offers from Chisinau to assist with gas purchases via European platforms, Transnistrian authorities refused, maintaining reliance on Russian supplies. The suspension coincided with the end of a Russian gas transit agreement through Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Russian FSB officer found dead in Moscow Defense Ministry building, media reports. Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) counterintelligence officer Vladimir Feshchenko was found dead in a Moscow Defense Ministry building, Russian media reported on Tuesday. Preliminary reports suggest murder, with sources citing a deep forehead wound. The incident occurred in a building housing the Defense Ministry and the FSB Office for the Moscow Military District. Feshchenko, also a Russian weightlifting champion, allegedly died during a conflict with a former military colleague, who has reportedly confessed. The case underscores tensions within Russia’s security apparatus, which has faced criticism for suppressing dissent and targeting pro-Ukraine individuals during the ongoing war. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: The Biggest Threat to Europe. Erik Jones and Matthias Matthijs argue that Europe’s greatest challenges come from its weak defense policies and fragmented single market, not external factors like Donald Trump’s presidency. They advocate for implementing reforms outlined in reports by Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi. Letta proposes a savings and investment union to channel funds into strategic sectors, while Draghi emphasizes increasing defense funding and creating a common defense industry authority. Both stress unlocking domestic savings to boost European Union competitiveness. The authors warn that political divisions and resistance from member states could undermine these efforts, despite mounting external pressures on EU cohesion and autonomy. Foreign Affairs

THE MIDDLE EAST

Tehran never schemed to kill Donald Trump, asserts Iran’s Pezeshkian. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has denied allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate Donald Trump, calling such claims unfounded and accusing other nations of promoting "Iranophobia." In an interview with NBC News, he stated that Iran has “never attempted to nor does it plan to assassinate anyone,” and never will. These allegations stem from U.S. charges against an Iranian man accused of plotting Trump's assassination in retaliation for the 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Pezeshkian stressed that his country is open to dialogue but distrusts U.S. commitments, citing past failures, particularly after Washington withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. Despite advancing its nuclear program, Pezeshkian insisted that Tehran is not seeking war or nuclear weapons and accused adversaries of fabricating pretexts for conflict. He stated that Iran would defend itself if attacked but hopes to avoid war for the benefit of all parties involved. Regarding regional conflicts, Pezeshkian rejected claims that the nation’s influence has weakened due to recent setbacks faced by its allies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas. He reiterated Iran's efforts to promote peace in the region and denied complicity in Hamas’s recent attacks on Israel. NBC Reuters  

Iraq, Britain to ink $15 billion trade package, defense deal. Iraq and the U.K. on Tuesday announced a trade and defense package worth up to £12.3 billion ($14.98 billion) during a meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The trade deal includes several major projects: a £1.2 billion power transmission system for a grid interconnection project with Saudi Arabia, a £500 million plan to upgrade Iraq's Al-Qayyarah air base, and a £5.3 billion UK-led water infrastructure project to provide clean water to southern and western Iraq. Additionally, the two countries signed a defense agreement aimed at strengthening security cooperation. This builds on Iraq’s efforts to develop military ties as the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS winds down operations by 2026. The deal comes during a period of significant geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, as Iraq seeks to maintain stability amid regional tumult. Reuters The Times of Israel 

Some donors reluctant to finance Syrian aid under the new rulers, says U.N. food agency. U.N. World Food Program director Cindy McCain on Tuesday explained that some governments and donors are hesitant to increase humanitarian funding for Syria under its new interim rulers, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group. McCain said that Syria’s hunger crisis is both a humanitarian and security issue as the country transitions toward a potential new constitution, elections, and inclusive governance. Syria faces dire challenges, with 90% of its population in poverty and over 12 million people food insecure. Critical infrastructure remains devastated by the war. The WFP, already dealing with severe funding cuts, has reduced aid programs, leaving millions without assistance. McCain called for improved food production, sustainable water systems, and boosted wheat farming, noting that the new government has shown willingness to collaborate on these issues. Funding remains a key obstacle, as Western donors, citing sanctions and donor fatigue, have reduced aid, prompting calls for Gulf nations to step up support. While Gulf states have established ties with Syria’s new rulers, funding for both short-term emergency needs and long-term development remains limited. Sanctions against HTS and its leader complicate aid delivery. McCain warned that failure to address hunger and poverty in Syria during this critical phase could lead to broader instability, urging immediate action to secure food security and support societal recovery. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

South Korea’s president arrested for imposing martial law.   South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol was detained Wednesday by anti-corruption investigators over his brief imposition of martial law last month.  Investigators tried to arrest Yoo on Jan. 3 but backed down in the face of resistance from Yoon’s armed bodyguards, who then strung up barbed wire and barricades around the presidential compound. This time, investigators staged a show of force, dispatching about 1,000 personnel, 160 buses, riot police and law enforcement units trained to subdue organized criminals and drug traffickers.  After a roughly six-hour standoff Wednesday, Yoon relented and was taken to the special investigator’s office.  The country is now led by the No. 3 official in line for the presidency, following the impeachments last month of Yoon and his successor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who was criticized for not making certain judicial appointments. Yoon, whose presidential powers are suspended,went on Facebook on Monday and asked the South Korean government to provide support for the L.A. wildfires, noting the large Korean population there. South China Morning Post 

South Korea, Japan, U.S. conducting joint air drills with B-1B bomber following North Korean missile tests. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan were carrying out joint air drills on Wednesday, involving a B-1B bomber, South Korean F-15K, and Japanese F-2 fighter jets to strengthen their ability to deter and respond to North Korea's growing missile threats. The exercise comes in the wake of Pyongyang’s recent launches of hypersonic and short-range ballistic missiles, including a claimed hypersonic missile on January 6 and short-range missiles on January 9. The South Korean defense ministry said that the exercises aim to enhance trilateral cooperation amid escalating tensions and the North’s evolving nuclear and missile capabilities. Yonhap News Agency 

The Philippines says China is driving it `to the wall’ with aggression in the contested South China Sea. The Philippines has again accused China of escalating aggression in the South China Sea, particularly with the presence of a large Chinese coast guard ship near the Philippine coastline, just 77 nautical miles from its shore. On Tuesday, Philippine National Security Council Assistant Director-General Jonathan Malaya said that Beijing is “pushing us to the wall” with its mounting aggression, and condemned the “scare tactics” as "unacceptable." He vowed that Manila would not back down, warning that "all options are on the table," including new international lawsuits. A pair of Philippine coast guard vessels and surveillance aircraft have been challenging China's presence in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by ordering the 165-meter Chinese coast guard ship to retreat and asserting their right to the disputed waters. China, which claims sovereignty over most of the strategic South China Sea, dismissed the accusations, with one Foreign Ministry spokesperson urging the Philippines to stop "provocation." Manila is considering further legal action as China's activities near disputed areas raise tensions, although Beijing has warned against such moves, preferring bilateral negotiations. Both nations are set to hold further talks under a bilateral consultation mechanism to prevent conflict escalation. Associated Press 

China puts seven US firms on blacklist for links to Taiwan arms sales. China's commerce ministry on Tuesday announced that it added seven U.S. companies, including Inter-Coastal Electronics, to its "Unreliable Entity List" for involvement in arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing views as its territory. The blacklisted companies are now banned from exporting to, importing from, or making new investments in China, effective immediately. Reuters 

Trump's efforts to buy Greenland sparks discussion in China about what to do with Taiwan. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's controversial threats to take Greenland and seize the Panama Canal by force have kindled discourse on Chinese social media, and triggered debate within foreign policy circles. Many Chinese commentators suggest that Trump’s rhetoric undermines the U.S. message urging Beijing to show restraint on Taiwan. While analysts doubt these comments will directly affect the Taiwan issue, they believe Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy might create opportunities for China, as some believe that the “dealmaker” President-elect may be open to an agreement on Taipei. Beijing, however, maintains that Taiwan is its own territory, unlike the Danish island, and rejects parallels between Taiwan and Greenland. The Taiwanese foreign ministry dismissed the notion that Trump's comments would embolden China, stressing that "any distortion of Taiwan's sovereign status will not change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.” Nonetheless, Trump’s remarks have stimulated conversation in China, with one professor in Hong Kong asserting that “China must take Taiwan” if “Greenland is annexed by the United States.” Other experts argue that China’s actions regarding Taipei are more influenced by military capabilities and potential costs than by U.S. rhetoric. Some see Trump’s willingness to use force as a deterrent to Chinese aggression, while others note that Beijing's claims on the self-governing island remain rooted in its historical and territorial stance. Ultimately, most analysts agree that the issue remains distinct and unlikely to be directly influenced by Trump’s remarks on other territories. Reuters 

Taiwan to bolster its surveillance of ships with flag of convenience, following cable damage. The Taiwanese government said that it plans to enhance surveillance and management of ships flying flags of convenience, including boarding them, after a Chinese-linked cargo vessel was suspected of damaging an undersea communications cable earlier this month. The ship, owned by a Hong Kong company but registered in Cameroon and Tanzania, allegedly damaged the cable near Taiwan, though its intentions remain unverified. The incident heightened Taipei’s concerns over China's "grey zone" tactics, such as sand dredging and balloon overflights, which are aimed at pressuring and intimidating the self-governing island without direct confrontation. Taiwan's National Security Bureau announced stricter inspections for suspect ships and also plans to dispatch the coast guard to investigate vessels near undersea cables within 24 nautical miles of its coast. It is also seeking greater international cooperation with the U.S. and Europe to address cable sabotage. Drawing parallels with repeated incidents of undersea cable damage in the Baltic Sea since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan emphasized the importance of intelligence sharing and prevention efforts with “like-minded countries.” Just last week, Taipei accused Chinese-linked ships flying flags of convenience of exhibiting "the mark of evil." Reuters 

AFRICA

Sudanese army condemns "individual violations," as rights groups allege ethnically targeted murders of civilians in El Gezira. The Sudanese army has denounced recent "individual violations" in El Gezira, after rights groups accused the army and its allies of conducting ethnically targeted attacks on civilians, particularly people from western Sudan accused of collaborating with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Following the army's recapture of Wad Madani, the state capital, over the weekend, human rights groups reported 13 killings in the village of Kambo Tayba, as well as other incidents of torture and executions linked to hate speech against residents. The army pledged to hold perpetrators accountable. El Gezira had previously suffered widespread violence by RSF fighters, with some residents claiming local farmers participated in the paramilitary raids. Unverified videos on social media depicted severe violence, including brutal executions by soldiers and Islamist militias allied to the army. The Sudanese Doctors Union lamented the suffering of “innocent, defenseless civilians” trapped in the ongoing conflict, who “are daily paying a high price.” Reuters

Sudan’s army claims to have found UAE weapons stockpile in warehouse. New video footage has surfaced allegedly showing a stockpile of weapons supplied by the UAE to Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), sparking concerns about Abu Dhabi's role in fueling the ongoing 15-month conflict. After Sudanese forces recaptured the strategic city of Wad Madani from the RSF on Saturday, images and videos emerged showing warehouses stocked with ammunition and missiles reportedly originating from the UAE. The claims are supported by previous investigations, as well as a UN report from January of last year, that documented the transport of Emirati weapons to the RSF via Chad. Despite these findings, the UAE has consistently denied supplying arms to the paramilitary forces. The footage could add to growing evidence implicating the Gulf State in enabling the devastating civil war. Middle East Monitor Middle East Eye 

Congo sentences 3 Chinese nationals to 7 years in prison for illegal mining. Court filings show that three Chinese citizens were sentenced on Tuesday to seven years in prison and fined $600,000 for illegally exploiting mineral resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This marks the first conviction of foreign mineral brokers for unauthorized mining in the country. They were also found guilty of looting, fraud, and money laundering after being arrested earlier this month with 10 gold bars and $400,000 in cash. The case highlights the Congo’s ongoing efforts to combat illegal mineral trafficking, which has plagued regions like South Kivu. Last year, authorities identified 547 illegal mining companies in the area, and in 2021, six Chinese companies were suspended for unauthorized operations. Mineral-rich South Kivu has also been affected by violence, as over 120 armed groups are competing for resources in the region. The ruling was praised as a deterrent for future illegal mining, though the defendants plan to appeal. The Congo continues to seek better terms on a $6.2 billion mining contract with China, signed in 2008, to ensure sustainable and fair resource exploitation. Environmental and legal advocates call for stronger collaboration to address these challenges. Associated Press 

Interpol targets illegal mining in West Africa as police arrest 200, seize chemicals and drugs. Interpol on Tuesday unveiled its successful crackdown on illegal gold mining in West Africa, with a major operation resulting in the arrests of 200, the seizure of harmful chemicals, explosives, and drugs, and the exposure of extensive networks behind the illicit activity. Conducted from July to October 2024 across Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, and Senegal, Operation Sanu also highlighted severe health risks for miners, such as prolonged exposure to toxic chemicals like mercury and cyanide. Painkillers found during the raids underscored the harsh toll on miners. In Gambia, the operation marked the first major crackdown on illegal sand mining, resulting in seven arrests and the seizure of equipment, as sand mining increasingly threatens ecosystems and livelihoods. Meanwhile, in South Africa, separate rescue efforts at the abandoned Buffelsfontein Gold Mine continued, revealing the dire conditions faced by illegal miners. At least 51 bodies and 106 survivors have been recovered, with over 500 miners believed to remain trapped underground. Illegal mining persists in South Africa, often in abandoned mines, posing significant risks to both miners and local communities. Interpol underscored the importance of international cooperation in combating these environmental and human rights threats. Associated Press Interpol CNN BBC 

U.N. Libya mission rattled by alleged torture footage in detention facility. The U.N. Libya mission (UNSMIL) has expressed alarm over social media footage allegedly showing detainees being brutally tortured at the Gernada detention facility in eastern Libya. While Reuters could not verify the footage's authenticity, the visuals align with known details of the prison. UNSMIL condemned the acts as serious violations of international human rights law and noted they reflect documented patterns of abuse in Libyan detention centers. The mission has called for an immediate investigation and is coordinating with the Libyan National Army for access to the facility and other detention centers under their control. Libyan authorities have not commented on the footage or the U.N.'s statement. The North African nation remains in chaos and lawlessness following the 2011 NATO-backed overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. Reuters LibyanExpress 

Zimbabwe's ruling parts seeks to extend president's term by two years. Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF party has floated the idea of extending President Emmerson Mnangagwa's term by two years to 2030, despite the constitutional two-term limit. The party has not clarified how this extension would be implemented or whether constitutional amendments would be pursued. Additionally, the country’s main opposition party said it would not hinder calls for Mnangagwa to extend his tenure “if the people of Zimbabwe are happy.” Mnangagwa, 82, has publicly stated he will step down after his term ends, but the idea of removing term limits has been discussed before. Constitutional experts argue that any changes to term limits would require referendums and could not apply retroactively to the incumbent. Since independence in 1980, Zimbabwe has seen leaders using legal and extralegal methods to extend their rule, as exemplified by the late Robert Mugabe, who led the country with intimidation and violent tactics until he was removed in a 2017 coup. Across Africa, attempts to scrap term limits have been common, with most succeeding. However, legal experts stress that Mnangagwa staying in power beyond 2028 would face significant legal hurdles. Reuters Bloomberg VOA  

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Spy vs. AI. Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to revolutionize U.S. intelligence operations by enabling rapid data analysis, enhancing threat detection, and improving decision-making. The integration of AI, particularly large language models, offers faster and more comprehensive insights for policymakers. However, the technology also presents risks, as adversaries like China exploit AI for surveillance, propaganda, and influence. To maintain a competitive edge, the U.S. must leverage private-sector advancements, secure AI systems against manipulation, and integrate AI into intelligence workflows. Ethical deployment, robust oversight, and adherence to democratic values are critical to ensuring AI’s effective and responsible use in national security. Foreign Affairs

SEC Sues Elon Musk Over Twitter Stock Buys, Escalating Long-Simmering Feud. The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk, alleging he violated disclosure laws during his 2022 Twitter stock purchases, saving $150 million by delaying required filings. Musk allegedly disclosed his 5% stake in Twitter 11 days late, misleading shareholders who sold at lower prices. The lawsuit seeks repayment of gains and penalties. Musk, a top ally of President-elect Donald Trump, has criticized the SEC, calling it a "broken organization." The timing coincides with SEC leadership changes under Trump’s administration. Musk’s close ties to Trump have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest in Musk's business dealings. Wall Street Journal

Biden administration issues E.O. to promote AI data center expansion on federal land – The Biden administration issued a new executive order on Tuesday that seeks to accelerate construction of domestic AI infrastructure.  The DoD and Energy Department are authorized by the E.O. to lease federal sites for gigawatt-scale AI data centers.  The departments have been directed to identify three federal sites each for private sector development of AI data centers.  The centers must operate entirely on clean power sources and developers must cover all construction and operating expenses while ensuring that the projects do not increase consumer electricity costs.  The investments in data center expansion, the White House said, stems from the projected impact of AI “across our economy, including in health care, transportation, education, and beyond, and it is too important to be offshored.”  Companies that lease federal land will be required to acquire an “appropriate share” of U.S.-produced semiconductors.  CNBC   Newsweek   Reuters

CyberScoop reports draft Biden E.O. directing cybersecurity measures, CISA oversight — Cyber defense is the focal point of a draft executive order that would impact federal agencies, contractors, and other parties involved in AI and quantum development and in efforts to combat cybercrime.  The E.O. also addresses cybersecurity related to space operations, directing that “in light of the pivotal role space systems play in global critical infrastructure and communications resilience…agencies shall take steps to continually verify that Federal space systems have the requisite cybersecurity capabilities through actions including continuous assessments, testing, exercises, and modeling and simulation.”  The draft document provides a variety of deadlines for federal agency compliance, ranging from 30 days to three years.  Across the federal government, the E.O.’s measures include encryption of email messages and requiring contractors to commit to cybersecurity practices, with CISA oversight and verification.  The E.O. also directs CISA to coordinate with federal CIO’s and CISO’s to “develop and release a concept of operations that enables CISA to gain timely access to required data.”  The defense and energy departments are instructed to develop a pilot program to incorporate AI into critical infrastructure cyber defenses.  The White House did not indicate when the E.O. will be released.  CyberScoop

CISA releases ‘playbook’ for public-private collaboration on AI model development – The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Tuesday released a playbook developed by the agency and its private sector partners in the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative (JCDC), which includes Anthropic, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI.  The plan details procedures for reporting and exchanging information on security threats – including ongoing cyberattacks — and flaws related to AI models.  CISA Director Jen Easterly explained the need for the playbook in comments to Axios:  "AI systems are evolving rapidly. There's no single entity that has all the information to manage AI-related risks.  This is an area where we have to work together and collaborate and share."  The playbook includes checklists for exchanging information related to ongoing attacks and new system vulnerabilities.  Procedures for reporting suspicious behavior and sharing information on threat actors are also outlined.  The playbook is designed as a resource for security analysts, incident investigators, and technical staff.  Participants in the development of the playbook, which took three and one-half years, said the trust built up during that period increased confidence about sharing confidential information.   Lisa Einstein, CISA’s chief AI officer, affirmed the importance of AI to the U.S. while noting that "Americans aren't going to accept these new technologies, and these companies' critical infrastructure are not going to accept the new technologies, if they can't trust that they're built with security in mind.”  Axios   CISA

National security adviser says cyber warning to China needs follow-up by new administration – National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, in an interview with Bloomberg news, said that a Chinese cyberattack on the U.S. that results in physical destruction would have “severe consequences.”  Preventing such an attack, Sullivan said, should be a party for the Trump administration.  Sullivan said the administration has sent a “clear message” to Chinese leadership about the repercussions of an attack resulting in physical damage.  He noted that the U.S. will have to continue to deter Chinese cyber aggression “because we have seen them setting up or positioning to be able to do that in the future. That’s something the new team will have to continue to work on internally.”   Regarding recent Chinese cyber campaigns, including the Volt and Salt Typhoon operations, Sullivan described them as “dramatic in their scope and scale and we take them deadly seriously.”  Sullivan reflected on the administration’s success in building cyber defenses and protecting U.S. technology advantages while building alliances at home and abroad.  In the case of reinforcing key supply chains, Sullivan advocated for collaboration with European partners, saying “we took some modest steps in that direction, but I think we have a long way to go to be secure in our supply chains on critical minerals.”  Bloomberg   South China Morning Post

Trump CIA nominee reportedly favors aggressive espionage, cyber operations against China  – President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Central Intelligence Agency, John Ratcliffe, reportedly will take a more aggressive posture toward China stemming from his view that Beijing represents the largest threat to U.S. national security.  A source close to Ratcliffe said the former Republican congressman would likely push for operations to deter wide-ranging Chinese cyberattacks, including recent campaigns against U.S. telecommunications and critical infrastructure.  Ratcliffe was also described as favoring intelligence efforts to spy on high-level officials in China as well as covert missions to counteract Chinese influence in various parts of the world.   The source said that Ratcliffe “knows he’s got the ultimate top cover: that’s Trump.  Trump is down for that kind of thing.”  Ratcliffe is described as among the many national security officials who believe that successive administrations have been too naive about the dangers posed by China.  Ratcliffe is scheduled to appear before the Senate panel considering his nomination on Wednesday.  Wall Street Journal

FBI wipes Chinese ‘PlugX’ malware from over 4,000 computers in U.S. networks – The Justice Department announced on Tuesday that the FBI has wiped Chinese “PlugX” malware from more than 4,000 computers on networks across the country.  The Chinese cyberespionage group, Mustang Panda, controls the malware used to infect thousands of systems around the world through the use of USB flash drives.  According to the department’s court filing, the malware was deployed against "European shipping companies in 2024, several European Governments from 2021 to 2023, worldwide Chinese dissident groups, and governments throughout the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan)."  Describing the action taken against malware implants in the U.S., the department said that authorities obtained warrants authorizing the removal of PlugX from U.S. computers.  The department added that "the last of these warrants expired on Jan. 3, 2025, thereby concluding the U.S. portions of the operation. In total, this court-authorized operation deleted PlugX malware from approximately 4,258 U.S.-based computers and networks."  The FBI has begun to notify owners of U.S.-based computers that have been cleaned of the PlugX infection, adding that the law enforcement action did not collect information from the systems in which malware was removed.   PlugX malware is capable of collecting system information, uploading and downloading files, logging keystrokes, and executing commands.  BleepingComputer   Reuters

New Commerce rule bans Chinese, Russian ‘connected car’ technology from U.S. – A new rule barring imports of Chinese and Russian connected-car technology into the U.S. was announced by the Commerce Department on Tuesday.  Vehicle Connectivity Systems (VCS) using software and hardware manufactured in China and Russia will be banned along with connected cars equipped with that technology.  Systems impacted by the ban include telematics control units and cellular, satellite, and Wi-Fi components.  In addition, Chinese and Russian software for Automated Driving Systems (ADS) will be outlawed by the new rule.  At the moment, the ban applies only to passenger vehicles although in light of the “acute national security threat” an additional rule focusing on trucks, buses, and similar vehicles may be released.  The rule will go into effect in January 2026 for software products and January 2029 for hardware.  Importers and manufacturers will be required to advise the Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security annually of their compliance with the rule.  Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo noted that “cars today aren’t just steel on wheels – they're computers.  They have cameras, microphones, GPS tracking, and other technologies that are connected to the internet.”   A White House announcement accompanying the Commerce Department release said the new rule will help protect the U.S. from Chinese cyber espionage and intrusion operations.  The White House added that “this rule ensures that our critical infrastructure is not exposed to the risk of foreign adversary-controlled supply chains that could provide bad actors with the means to disrupt U.S. critical infrastructure.”  The Record

Looming TikTok ban sparks surge in downloads of competing Chinese video apps – Two lesser-known Chinese social media apps are drawing a surge of users seeking alternatives to TikTok, which remains under threat of banning in the U.S.  Xiaohongshu and Lemon8 have taken the leading positions in Apple’s iPhone download charts in the U.S..  The Instagram-like Xiaohongshu app has become the most downloaded free offering on iOS and has reached the top 10 in the Google Play store for the first time.  The shift to Xiaohongshu and Lemon8 indicates the willingness of TikTok’s millions of users to search out alternative outlets for videos and online marketplaces.  Unless the TikTok policy is reversed by the Trump administration, the Chinese app will be subject to the new law banning it under Chinese ByteDance ownership.  Options to ByteDance reportedly include a buyout of TikTok by Elon Musk, although that has been denied by TikTok representatives.  Xiaohongshu (aka “Red Note” in the U.S.) has been joined on the social media app scene by Lemon8, which also is owned by ByteDance.  Android and iOS downloads of the app tripled last week and on Monday it reached the level of most-downloaded free iPhone app in the U.S.  The U.S. influencer known as Nuha, who has more than 1.5 million followers on TikTok, posted her first video to Xiaohongshu, telling viewers, “I am so nervous to be on this app but I also find it to be really exciting and thrilling that we are all doing this.”  Another content creator posted online that while “it’s OK” that TikTok may be banned in the U.S., TikTok creators “aren’t going back to Instagram and Facebook,” because they have joined Xiaohongshu.   Bloomberg   CNBC   Nikkei   CNN   South China Morning Post

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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