Report for Wednesday, February 5, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Trump proposes U.S. ‘take over’ Gaza, resettle Gazans in a neighboring country

US reimposes 'maximum pressure' on Iran, says Tehran ‘cannot have a nuclear weapon.’

Trump in ‘no rush’ to talk to Chinese leader

Ukraine welcomes Trump's offer to trade its minerals for military support

Experts cite national security risks of DOGE access to federal systems

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

China’s Preparations for a ‘Major-Power War. A report from China about a massive new military command center 10 times the size of the Pentagon – has brought fresh attention to China’s military expansion and intentions. The Financial Times reported that “Beijing’s Military City” is being constructed on some 1,500 acres on the western edges of the capital, to house not just military leaders and facilities, but also deep bunkers built to withstand American bunker buster bombs, and even a possible nuclear strike.  Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with Rear Admiral Mike Studeman (Ret.), a former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and a member of our expert network, about the importance of the new military command center in Beijing and China’s military development.  The Cipher Brief  

Expert Q&A: Inside China’s DeepSeek AI Miracle. How did China pull off its DeepSeek AI breakthrough? William “Chip” Usher, who spent 32 years in the CIA and is now Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitiveness Studies Project, spoke with Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly about how DeepSeek pulled off its AI coup – and the long-term implications for the tech and national security realms.  The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Trump says US is having ‘very constructive talks’ on Ukraine. During Tuesday’s press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump announced that the United States is engaged in "very constructive talks" with both Russian and Ukrainian leaders to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. He emphasized his commitment to doing "whatever it takes" to halt the conflict, highlighting the extensive destruction in Ukrainian cities, which he compared to or even worse than the devastation in Gaza. Trump expressed a strong desire to stop the "absolute slaughter" resulting from the war, noting that weekly reports reveal staggering casualty numbers. He cited figures of approximately 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 800,000 Russian soldiers killed, though these numbers are significantly higher than official estimates. While affirming ongoing negotiations with both Russian and Ukrainian leadership, Trump did not provide specific details of his peace plan or clarify whether he would insist on a Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory. He reiterated the urgency of ending the conflict to prevent further loss of life and destruction. Voice of America YouTube

Ukraine welcomes Trump's offer to trade its minerals for military support. Donald Trump’s proposal to tie U.S. military aid to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals has sparked diplomatic maneuvering. On Monday, he said Washington wants Ukrainian lithium and titanium in exchange for continued financial assistance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who first suggested the idea in September, welcomed Trump’s interest, saying cooperation with allies is “absolutely fair.” A senior Ukrainian official confirmed Kyiv is ready to sign agreements, seeing U.S. investment as a security boost. Europe, however, is uneasy. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Trump’s approach “selfish,” warning that Ukraine needs its resources for postwar rebuilding. A European diplomat said Kyiv had discussed using mineral revenues for reconstruction, not just trading them for weapons. Russia, which already controls mineral-rich Ukrainian territories, accused Trump of making Kyiv “buy U.S. assistance.” With China restricting exports and Ukraine’s battlefield position weakening, Trump’s transactional stance could reshape Kyiv’s efforts to secure support. Washington Post RFE/RL CNN Politico EU

Trump is talking tougher toward Putin but has yet to ratchet up assistance to Ukraine. Donald Trump has shifted to a harsher tone on Vladimir Putin, warning that Russia is "in big trouble" if it continues the war but has yet to ramp up military aid to Ukraine. He claims Ukraine is willing to negotiate, while Russia remains uncooperative. Trump briefly delayed weapons shipments to Ukraine, later suggesting U.S. assistance should be tied to securing Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. His administration is divided, with some advisors advocating pressure on Putin while others push to cut aid. Trump has floated tariffs, sanctions, and seizing $300 billion in Russian reserves to fund Ukraine, but experts question their effectiveness. Former ambassador William Taylor suggested using frozen Russian assets to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. Despite concerns that Trump might favor Russia, his evolving rhetoric suggests he now recognizes that resolving the war is more complicated than he previously claimed. One official noted, "It’s dawning on him how bad it would be politically and strategically if this f——- up." NBC News

Ukraine reports top-level contacts with Trump administration aides. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that his team spoke with U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, about battlefield conditions, mobilization, and arranging a U.S. delegation visit. "We already have working dates when the American team will arrive. Now the dates and members of the delegation are being agreed upon," Zelensky said. He responded to Trump’s call for Kyiv to supply rare earth materials in exchange for aid, noting Ukraine had already invited allies to invest in critical resources. "This can be developed with our partners... helping us defend our land." Reuters

Zelensky: Ukraine is ready for war talks with Putin, but the U.S. and Europe must be there. In an interview with Piers Morgan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is open to negotiations but insisted the U.S. and Europe must be present alongside Russia. He dismissed the Kremlin’s claim that his mandate is illegitimate, arguing elections during wartime require constitutional changes and are impractical. "The key issue isn't just legal - it's human. How will soldiers in trenches vote? What about millions of Ukrainians in occupied territories? Do their voices no longer matter? And what about eight million Ukrainians forced abroad by war?" Zelensky asked. He estimated Ukraine’s war losses at 45,100 dead and 390,000 wounded while estimating Russia’s at 350,000 dead and up to 700,000 injured. He said many Russian soldiers are missing in action but did not talk about Ukraine’s MIA soldiers. He warned against easing sanctions on Russia and stressed the need for security guarantees and adequate weapons to defend the nation. Reuters Politico EU France 24

​​Ukraine should receive nuclear weapons if NATO entry is delayed, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a Tuesday interview with Piers Morgan, suggested that if Ukraine’s NATO accession is delayed indefinitely, the U.S. should provide an alternative security guarantee, including nuclear weapons. “What kind of support package, what kind of missiles? Will they give us nuclear weapons? Then let them give us nuclear weapons,” he said, acknowledging NATO entry could take years or decades. Zelensky outlined other options: return nuclear weapons, provide missile systems, finance a million-strong army, or deploy foreign contingents in Ukraine for stability. He also rejected Russia’s justification for the war, saying, “Putin invaded because he was afraid that we would become NATO members. Well, we are not NATO members. Get out of our land.” He criticized Ukraine’s 1990s nuclear disarmament under the Budapest Memorandum, arguing it failed to provide real security guarantees. Kyiv maintains that NATO membership remains its best long-term safeguard. Kyiv Independent

50,000 servicemen are being transferred to the Ground Forces. Around 50,000 Ukrainian service members from all branches are being reassigned to the Ground Forces to reinforce combat brigades and enable the first large-scale rotation in three years, sources told Ukrainska Pravda. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi issued the order on January 11. A General Staff source told Ukrainska Pravda that existing training resources only cover minimal replenishments, making internal transfers essential. The source denied any link to negotiations or a frozen front. Previously, over 5,000 Air Force personnel were reassigned. The move reflects Ukraine’s efforts to sustain frontline strength amid prolonged war. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine confirms use of laser weapons. Ukraine has deployed laser weapons against Russian forces, with successful strikes confirmed by Vadym Sukharevskyi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. The country has been developing directed-energy weapons, particularly to counter drones like Iran-made Shahed UAVs. Sukharevskyi highlighted Ukraine’s indigenous laser system, ‘Tryzub,’ capable of downing aircraft above two kilometers. While operational details remain undisclosed, Ukraine sees these technologies as a cost-effective, precise alternative to conventional air defenses. The integration of laser weapons signals a shift in warfare and Ukraine’s commitment to advanced battlefield innovations. Defence Blog

Russians told not to panic over 'gas cloud' in city near plant struck by Ukraine. The governor of Russia’s Astrakhan region urged residents Wednesday not to panic after a cloud of natural gas covered the city following a Ukrainian drone strike on a major gas processing plant. Governor Igor Babushkin said the gas smell resulted from efforts to restart production at the facility, which had been shut down after the attack. He assured that natural gas in open spaces poses no health risk and that conditions would normalize soon. Some residents responded sarcastically online, questioning the intensity of the gas odor. The plant, one of the world's largest, may suspend fuel production for months. Reuters

ANALYSIS–Russia’s Costly Conquest in Ukraine. Russia’s occupation of southeastern Ukraine has proven economically burdensome rather than beneficial. With nearly half of the pre-2014 population gone and cities like Mariupol destroyed, the occupied territories offer little economic value. Industries have collapsed, infrastructure is in ruins, and local governance remains lawless. Russia spends billions to sustain the occupation while facing war-related costs, sanctions, and domestic economic struggles. Despite seizing land, Putin’s war has drained resources, making conquest a long-term liability rather than an asset. This failure may serve as a cautionary tale for other potential expansionists, such as China or North Korea.

Will Sanctions Ever Force Putin’s Hand on Ukraine? Three years of sanctions have failed to force Vladimir Putin to negotiate over Ukraine, as Russia’s economy remains buoyed by oil sales to China and India. New U.S. sanctions target Russian oil majors and tankers, but analysts doubt they will have an immediate effect. Bloomberg’s Alex Isakov estimates they could cut Russian output by 400,000 barrels daily, but rising global oil prices cushion the blow. Inflation-adjusted wages are rising, keeping Putin’s approval high. However, public finances are weakening, with liquid reserves potentially depleting within 12-18 months. Donald Trump threatens tougher sanctions, but the Kremlin insists oil price drops won’t end the war. Bloomberg

US aid freeze puts at risk Ukraine’s wartime help for frontline evacuees. Donald Trump’s freeze on U.S. humanitarian aid has disrupted relief efforts in Ukraine, where American funds covered 60% of the costs at a key evacuation shelter in Pavlohrad. The facility, which aids civilians fleeing Russian bombardment, now faces uncertainty. Coordinator Illia Novikov said the freeze abruptly halted funding for evacuation vehicles, aid worker salaries, and psychological support. Ukraine expects a $300-400 million shortfall, straining energy projects, veteran support, and healthcare. The World Health Organization launched a $110 million appeal, warning of a severe humanitarian crisis. Associated Press

8 killed, 70 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day. Besides five killed and 55 injured in Kharkiv Oblast’s Izium, Russian attacks also killed three and injured at least 15 in the past day. In Donetsk Oblast, strikes killed two civilians in Pokrovsk and Druzhkivka, wounding four others. In Kherson Oblast, shelling killed one person and injured eight. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a 62-year-old woman. Ukraine continues to endure daily Russian strikes targeting civilian areas as regional officials report mounting casualties amid intensified assaults. Kyiv Independent

Russian missile kills five, wounds over 50 in Ukrainian town of Izium. A Russian ballistic missile strike on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, killed five civilians on Tuesday, including a pregnant woman, and injured 55, among them three children. The missile hit the city council building, partially collapsing it, and damaged nearby administrative and residential structures. Governor Oleh Syniehubov confirmed no military facilities were in the area. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, calling for maximum pressure on Russia through military force, sanctions, and diplomacy. Izium, previously occupied by Russian forces, has faced repeated attacks, with ballistic missiles striking within minutes of detection. Reuters Kyiv Independent

IAEA chief warns of nuclear risk from Russia attacks on Ukraine power grids. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi warned Tuesday of nuclear risks from Russia’s continued strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, which, while avoiding direct hits on nuclear plants, threaten critical substations. Visiting Kyiv, Grossi highlighted the vulnerability of nuclear switchyards, stressing that power disruptions could jeopardize reactor cooling. Ukraine now relies on nuclear energy for over half its electricity due to three years of Russian bombardment. Grossi will visit Russia to discuss safety concerns at the occupied Zaporizhzhia plant. Meanwhile, Ukrainian lawmakers criticized Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko for failing to protect infrastructure, with some calling for his removal. Al Jazeera

Russian attacks near Ukrainian nuclear infrastructure heighten scrutiny of Kyiv. Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s power grid have raised concerns over the Energy Ministry’s failure to secure critical infrastructure near nuclear plants. Despite over a year of warnings, key nuclear switchyards remained unprotected until late 2024. Former Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, fired in September, criticized the delays: “We wrote officially to the Energy Ministry several times stating this problem.” Energy Minister Herman Haluschenko dismissed the criticism, insisting fortifications were complete, though tenders for key sites were issued only in late 2024. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned that Russian strikes on switchyards threaten nuclear safety, calling the situation a “major miscalculation.” The construction of necessary defenses is now set for completion in 2026—it is far too late to prevent potential disaster. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s reliance on nuclear energy remains high, with five of nine reactors forced to reduce output after Russian strikes narrowly missed key infrastructure in late 2024. Associated Press

Emergency power shutdowns were introduced in 8 oblasts due to Russian attacks. Emergency power shutdowns were imposed in eight Ukrainian oblasts due to rising consumption and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukrenergo reported on Tuesday. Recent strikes damaged electricity generation and transmission facilities, forcing outages in Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and parts of Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy oblasts. Ukrenergo urged residents to reduce electricity use. While Ukraine has avoided severe winter blackouts, ongoing Russian strikes threaten the grid’s stability. Restoration efforts remain underway. Kyiv Independent

US aid freeze halts support for prosecuting Russian war crimes, Ukraine's energy sector. The Trump administration’s 90-day foreign aid freeze halted U.S. support for prosecuting Russian war crimes and rebuilding Ukraine’s energy sector, Democratic Congressman Eugene Vindman said on Tuesday. Speaking at Ukraine Week in Washington, he urged lifting restrictions, noting that USAID-backed efforts, including war crimes investigations, are suspended. The White House defended the freeze as stopping "waste and abuse," while Secretary of State Marco Rubio now oversees USAID. Ukraine is seeking alternative European aid. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Sees Surge in Inquiries from Russian Families on Missing Soldiers. Ukraine reported a record 8,548 inquiries in January from Russian families seeking information on missing soldiers, a 22% increase from December. The hotline, I Want to Find, run by Ukraine’s Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, has received over 60,000 requests since its launch in January 2024. The center estimates the real number of missing Russian troops is two to three times higher. Of those identified, 1,790 are in Ukrainian captivity, with 408 exchanged. Kyiv attributes the rise in inquiries to Russia’s heavy losses, as prisoner exchanges remain one of the few ongoing interactions between both sides. Moscow Times

Foundations laid for tribunal to try Putin for Ukraine invasion, EU says. The European Union announced progress Tuesday toward establishing a special tribunal to try Vladimir Putin and Russian officials for the crime of aggression in Ukraine. Talks, stalled for nearly three years over legal jurisdiction and immunity, accelerated as Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House raised concerns about future U.S. support. The Council of Europe offered to host the tribunal, aiming to hold Russia accountable for war crimes. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed his demand for justice, emphasizing that war crimes must not go unpunished. A Ukrainian Nobel laureate, Oleksandra Matviichuk, warned that swift action is needed to deter further atrocities. The Guardian

Son of ousted president allegedly involved in sale of coal from Russian-occupied Donbas. Oleksandr Yanukovych, son of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, profited from coal sales from Russian-occupied Donbas, earning millions of euros over three years, IStories reported. His company, Energoresurs, exported nearly 500,000 tons of coal between 2023 and 2024, selling it at around €55 per ton to the offshore firm Energy Union, which then resold it at higher prices. Between 2021 and 2023, Energoresurs reportedly generated 3.5 billion rubles (€34 million) in revenue. Previously exporting to Europe, the company now primarily supplies Turkey. The scheme minimized export duties and funneled profits through offshore accounts in the British Virgin Islands. Kyiv Independent Novaya Gazeta

U.S. Call For Elections In Ukraine: A Step Toward Peace Or A Gift To Putin? The Trump administration's push for Ukrainian elections, linked to a cease-fire, has reignited debate over their feasibility and risks. Keith Kellogg’s remarks echo Trump’s transactional approach to ending the war, but critics argue elections could aid Russia’s disinformation efforts and destabilize Ukraine. The Kremlin already questions Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, while Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections under martial law. Experts warn Moscow would exploit the process, similar to Georgia’s counterrevolution. Zelenskyy insists elections require security guarantees, while opponents like Petro Poroshenko reject wartime voting. General Valeriy Zaluzhniy emerges as a potential rival, though analysts doubt his presidency would weaken Ukraine’s resistance. RFE/RL

Ukraine won't hold elections until Russia's war is over, Ukraine's envoy to US says. Ukraine will not hold elections until Russia’s war is over, Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said in an interview on Tuesday. Her comments follow a call by Donald Trump’s envoy, Keith Kellogg, for Ukraine to hold elections by year’s end, especially if a ceasefire is reached. Under martial law, in place since 2022, elections are banned. Markarova said Ukraine is open to discussions but emphasized elections would only happen after victory. Organizing a vote would require legislative changes and infrastructure for refugees and soldiers. President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested elections could be scheduled if the war’s “hot phase” ends. Kyiv Independent

Less than half of Poles support continued military aid to Ukraine, survey shows. Support for military aid to Ukraine among Poles fell from 54% to 49% in 2024, according to a Mieroszewski Center survey published on Tuesday. Opposition to aid grew from 26% to 35%. Support for assisting Ukrainian refugees also declined from 42% to 40%, while negative views of Ukrainians rose from 27% to 30%. Poland, once overwhelmingly supportive, now shows signs of war fatigue, mirroring trends in other Western nations as the war nears its third anniversary.  Kyiv Independent

'It's like hell': Race to evacuate residents from Ukraine front-line city; ​​Anton Yaremchuk, a Ukrainian cinematographer turned aid worker, leads evacuations from Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are now less than 2 kilometers away. “The last few days we were coming in, there was hell,” he says. His team has rescued 3,000 civilians since 2022, but some elderly residents refuse to leave, clinging to their homes. "It's not life anymore; it's like hell," says 71-year-old Olga. Seventy-five-year-old Lyuba adds, “People are just getting killed under the sky.” Anton acknowledges, “Every time I see this, I break down.” A recent Russian drone attack wounded a British volunteer, forcing Anton’s group to halt evacuations. BBC

Ukraine says it has brought back 12 children taken by Russia. Ukraine has recovered 12 children forcibly taken to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, announced on Tuesday. Among them were a 16-year-old orphan, a 17-year-old conscripted by Russia, and an eight-year-old girl. The Bring Kids Back UA program has now returned 388 children, though Ukraine estimates over 19,500 have been abducted. Russia denies forced deportations, claiming it evacuates children for protection. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children’s Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova over the abductions, which Ukraine classifies as war crimes meeting the U.N. definition of genocide. Reuters

Inside the Ukrainian drone battalions razing oil plants in Russia. Ukraine’s 14th UAV Regiment is systematically targeting Russian oil refineries, airbases, and ammunition depots with mass drone strikes. Battalion commander “Casper” says they launch “dozens, sometimes hundreds” of drones simultaneously, using decoys to penetrate Russian air defenses. Ukraine now produces over 500 long-range drones monthly, drastically increasing its effectiveness. In 2023, the regiment destroyed 17 Russian warplanes and later hit an ammunition depot storing North Korean shells. Their tactics combine drones with Western weapons like HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles. Despite improving Russian countermeasures, the unit remains elusive, adapting strategies now being studied by militaries worldwide. The Times

UK's foreign minister visits Kyiv, announces further financial support. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, visiting Ukraine on Wednesday, announced £55 million ($68.7 million) in aid to strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia. He met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and other officials, reaffirming Britain’s “unbreakable” support. The package includes £17 million for energy projects, £10 million for business recovery, and £25 million for community services. Britain also allocated £3 million for Ukrainian grain shipments to Syria. London has pledged £3 billion annually in military aid. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Feb. 4. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi inspected the damage at the Kyivska Electrical Substation on Tuesday, warning that continued Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threaten nuclear safety. Russian officials insist a reserve call-up is unnecessary despite reports indicating that recruitment efforts are failing to keep pace with battlefield losses. Russian-installed officials claim Ukraine's 2022 counteroffensive thwarted Moscow’s plan to hold an illegal annexation referendum in Kharkiv Oblast. Several Russian naval vessels left Syria’s Tartus port for Russia, suggesting uncertainty over ongoing negotiations about Moscow’s military presence there. Russian ships have been forced to take a much longer route via the Atlantic instead of the Black Sea due to Ukrainian naval drone threats. Russia reportedly tasked military logistics vessels with monitoring NATO ships in the Baltic, particularly near Latvia, in early 2023. A Kremlin-affiliated mil blogger claims Russian field commanders continue falsifying reports on battlefield progress despite recent command changes.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: Trump’s Resource Grab in Ukraine Is a Price Worth Paying. Marc Champion argues that Trump’s demand for Ukrainian resources in exchange for aid is distasteful but necessary. He notes that Europe, particularly Germany, should stop complaining and recognize its failure to rebuild its own defense capabilities. Ukraine’s offer of mineral wealth was designed to appeal to Trump’s transactional instincts, though he mischaracterized its resources. While Trump’s claim that the U.S. has given more than Europe is false, Europe has a greater stake in stopping Putin. Champion says accepting Trump’s terms is preferable to Europe’s alternative—resuming Russian gas trade—which would undermine Ukraine’s war effort. Bloomberg

Opinion: Putin thinks time is on his side. Sadly, he may be right. Alexander Gabuev argues that Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side in Ukraine, as Russia slowly advances while Ukraine faces manpower and weapons shortages. With U.S. support uncertain under Donald Trump and European arms production struggling, Kyiv’s ability to hold out is in doubt. Despite heavy losses, Russia continues replenishing troops and sustaining its wartime economy. Gabuev notes that Putin’s diplomatic strategy flatters Trump while sidelining Ukraine, with demands including recognition of Russia’s annexations and an end to NATO expansion. He warns that proving Putin wrong will require more Ukrainian sacrifices and Western weapons—possibly more time than Trump’s impatience allows. The Economist

Opinion: Putin’s Advances Menace Trump’s Peace Hopes. Nico Lange argues that Russia is advancing systematically in Donbas while Western discussions focus too much on ceasefires rather than battlefield realities. Ukraine’s military is struggling with manpower and weapons shortages while Russia continues grinding assaults and missile strikes on cities. Ukraine needs better standoff weapons, more aircraft, and stronger logistical support to counter this. Western allies, particularly Germany, remain too hesitant to provide key capabilities. He urges a focus on weakening Russia’s defense industry, increasing arms production in Ukraine, and strengthening long-term security measures. Without decisive action, Putin will exploit divisions between the U.S. and Europe to continue his war. Center for European Policy Analysis

Opinion: Europe must act on Russian LNG before Trump makes it impossible. Svitlana Romanko argues that Europe must ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) before Donald Trump uses sanctions as a bargaining chip. With reports suggesting Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg may push for lifting sanctions in negotiations, Romanko warns Europe will soon lose autonomy over energy measures. She criticizes continued EU purchases of Russian LNG, which funds Moscow’s war, and urges the bloc to act before peace talks make further sanctions politically unfeasible. A ban would not only weaken Russia but also strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position and accelerate Europe’s energy diversification.  Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Ukraine’s robotic army is bringing the fight to Russia. David Kirichenko argues that Ukraine’s rapid advancements in military robotics are reshaping modern warfare. Facing manpower shortages and dwindling Western arms supplies, Ukraine has embraced unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and AI-enabled drones to counter Russia’s numerical advantage. The BRAVE1 initiative and startups are driving innovation, producing cost-effective combat robots like the Honey Badger. While robots alone cannot replace soldiers, they reduce risk and enhance efficiency. Kirichenko suggests Ukraine’s technological breakthroughs could define future warfare, positioning it as a leader in next-generation combat systems. Kyiv Independent

Opinion: Russia’s war against the West will continue until Putin tastes defeat. Andriy Zagorodnyuk argues that Russia’s war on Ukraine is part of Vladimir Putin’s broader effort to overturn the global security order and replace it with a system where great powers dominate weaker nations. He warns that negotiations or territorial concessions will not end the war, as Putin remains convinced, he can outlast the West. To stop him, Ukraine’s allies must shift from arming Kyiv for survival to equipping it for victory, including supplying fighter jets, long-range missiles, and enhanced air capabilities. Anything less, he says, will embolden Russia and other authoritarian regimes, leading to further global instability. Atlantic Council

THE AMERICAS

Trump proposes U.S. ‘take over’ Gaza, resettle Gazans in a neighboring country.  With Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side, President Donald Trump said at a news conference Tuesday evening that the U.S. should take a “long-term ownership position” in Gaza.  Trump said Gaza’s residents should be moved permanently, possibly to Egypt and Jordan, so the Gaza Strip could be cleared of rubble and transformed into “the Riviera of the Middle East.” “ I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East and maybe the entire Middle East,” Trump told reporters, “and everybody I've spoken to… loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs with something that will be magnificent.” His proposal is certain to infuriate the Arab states and also European leaders who have joined previous American presidents in pressing for a two-state solution for the Middle East.   Trump didn’t rule out sending the U.S. military to help control the enclave, a surprising position given his campaign promises to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. “If it's necessary, we'll do that,” Trump said.  “We're going to take over that piece and we're going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs. And it'll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of.”  Netanyahu said he was open to Trump’s ideas. “He sees a different future for that piece of land,” the Israeli leader said.  “I think it's worth paying attention to this. We're talking about it. He's exploring it with his people, with his staff. I think it's something that could change history, and it's worthwhile really pursuing this avenue.”  Jordanian King Abdullah II, who is due to visit Washington soon, is not likely to share that opinion.  Last week, Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi squarely rejected Trump’s ideas about resettling Gazans in their countries. Washington Post   New York Times  Wall Street Journal Associated Press BBC The Guardian  CNN

Saudi Arabia rejects ties with Israel before a Palestinian state is established. Saudi Arabia said Tuesday it would not forge ties with Israel unless a Palestinian state has been established.  President Donald Trump, at a press conference with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, suggested that Saudi Arabia would go along with his plan to resettle Palestinians out of Gaza. The Saudi foreign ministry quickly issued a statement contradicting that notion, saying, “Saudi Arabia rejects any attempts to displace the Palestinians from their land.” It added that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made the kingdom's position known in 'a clear and explicit manner' that does not allow for any interpretation under any circumstances.  Trump wants Saudi Arabia to sign the Abraham Accords, as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain did in his first term and normalize ties with Israel. Riyadh was considering the idea when Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, igniting the Gaza war, and ended any chance that Riyadh would embrace normalization without a Palestinian state.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Arab world reacts with anger to Donald Trump’s plans to take over Gaza. Arab leaders reacted with anger to Donald Trump’s statement on Tuesday that the U.S. should "take over" Gaza and resettle its 2.2 million Palestinian residents. Hamas condemned the remark as “aggressive” and accused Trump of fueling further instability. The Palestine Liberation Organization’s Hussein al-Sheikh reaffirmed rejection of any displacement and insisted on a two-state solution. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for aid delivery without Palestinians leaving Gaza and emphasized that the Palestinian Authority should govern the enclave. Trump’s suggestion evoked comparisons to the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, raising fears of further destabilization. His intervention also complicates efforts to advance Saudi Israeli normalization, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously calling Israel’s Gaza assault “genocide.” Financial Times

Australia presses for a two-state solution in Middle East. Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Wednesday the government supported a two-state solution in the Middle East, effectively rejecting President Donald Trump's shock plans to take over the Gaza Strip. "Australia's position is the same as it was this morning, as it was last year," Albanese told a news conference. "The Australian government supports on a bipartisan basis, a two-state solution." Asked about Trump’s ideas for a strong American presence in Gaza, he said, “I’m not going to, as Australia’s prime minister, give a daily commentary on statements by the US president. My job is to support Australia’s position.”  Reuters The Guardian Times of Israel  

Hamas official says Trump's remarks to take over Gaza will inflame the region.  Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Wednesday that President Donald Trump's proposal for the U.S. to take over the Gaza Strip are "ridiculous" and "absurd." "Trump's remarks about his desire to control Gaza are ridiculous and absurd, and any ideas of this kind are capable of igniting the region," Abu Zuhri told Reuters.   Reuters

The CIA is on the verge of a Trump purge.  The Trump team at the Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to the agency’s workforce Tuesday, ostensibly to refocus the agency on President Trump’s priorities, such as drug cartels. The CIA is the first intelligence agency to extend the Trump buyout offer to its employees. The offer last month made to most civilian federal agencies exempted federal workers with national security roles. The CIA  is also freezing hiring and will look for people who can advance the agency’s new goals, Trump’s trade war and undermining China.  A CIA spokeswoman says the moves are designed to “infuse the agency with renewed energy.”  Wall Street Journal  

Trump in ‘no rush’ to talk to Chinese leader.   Despite the trade war he kicked off, President Donald Trump said Tuesday he is in “no rush” to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.  “We’ll speak to him at the appropriate time. I’m in no rush,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, a day after both countries exchanged new trade curbs. Trump imposed 10 percent duties on Chinese imports before midnight Monday, and China imposed targeted tariffs on U.S. imports on Tuesday.  Politico Reuters

U.S. Postal Service halts incoming packages from China, Hong Kong. The U.S. Postal Service has temporarily suspended parcel shipments from China and Hong Kong, following President Donald Trump’s decision to end the "de minimis" trade provision, which allowed duty-free entry for low-value packages under $800. This move, part of a broader strategy to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and combat fentanyl trafficking, has disrupted shipments from major retailers like Shein and Temu, which relied heavily on the exemption. The suspension affects millions of packages, causing delays and operational challenges for logistics providers and businesses. While letters and flat mail remain unaffected, companies like Amazon, Shein, and Temu face increased costs, customs paperwork, and potential supply chain disruptions. Experts predict this could lead to higher product prices but may not significantly reduce shipment volumes due to strong consumer demand. China has called for diplomatic dialogue, emphasizing the need for cooperation on drug control. Meanwhile, the U.S. is considering adding Shein and Temu to a forced labor watchlist, which could further impact their operations. To mitigate the effects, these companies are diversifying supply chains, opening U.S. warehouses, and expanding partnerships with American sellers. Reuters The Guardian BBC South China Morning Post Reuters

Senate confirms Bondi as attorney general, RFK Jr and Gabbard advance.  Tulsi Gabbard, President Donald Trump’s controversial pick to serve as director of national intelligence, cleared a procedural vote Tuesday, paving the way toward a wider Senate vote on her confirmation. The Republican-led Senate Select Committee on Intelligence approved Gabbard’s nomination in a closed committee vote of 9-8, along party lines, Senate aides said. The full Senate is expected to vote on her confirmation as early as next week.  BBC Washington Post New York Times The Hill Reuters   

Demonstrators gather outside Treasury Department to protest Musk’s access. Democratic leaders, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy, gathered outside the U.S. Treasury on Tuesday to voice concerns over Elon Musk’s growing influence, labeling him a “self-appointed co-president.” Warren criticized Musk for allegedly exerting control over America’s payment systems, warning that this power could potentially be used to restrict services like Social Security payments based on personal biases. Murphy stressed opposition to billionaires' influence in politics, asserting that Democrats are committed to reclaiming power from the tech giant’s growing reach. The Guardian 

Trump puts global USAID staff on leave, recalls personnel in dramatic aid overhaul. The Trump administration announced Tuesday that nearly all U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) employees worldwide will be placed on leave starting Friday and ordered to return to the U.S. within 30 days, with only a few mission-critical staff exempt. This move is part of a broader effort to dismantle the agency, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio assuming control as acting administrator. USAID’s website, which was briefly taken offline, now displays a notice confirming the termination of non-essential contracts. Employees abroad face upheaval, with families forced to relocate abruptly. Elon Musk, leading government efficiency efforts, called USAID a "criminal organization" and a "viper’s nest of radical-left Marxists." Critics argue that dismantling the agency exceeds executive authority, as Congress established USAID in 1961. Trump, when asked whether he was shutting down USAID, laughed and said, "Sounds like it." The decision halts billions in global aid, including food, medical supplies, and emergency programs, raising alarms about humanitarian crises. CNN Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera 

Trump stops US engagement with UN Human Rights Council and Palestinian relief agency. US President Donald Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday to stop US engagement with the United Nations Human Rights Council while keeping a ban on funding for the UN Palestinian relief agency UNRWA. The moves, repeated from actions taken you during his previous administration, occurred during a visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has accused UNRWA of anti-Israel incitement and staff involvement in terrorist activities. South China Morning Post 

Trump freezes funding for security mission combating Haitian gangs. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on foreign aid has frozen over $13 million in U.S. funding for an international security mission combating raging gang violence in Haiti. The Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, backed by the U.N. Security Council but not a formal U.N. operation, relies on voluntary contributions and includes nearly 900 personnel from countries like Kenya, El Salvador, and Jamaica. While the U.S. had pledged $15 million, only $1.7 million was spent before the freeze. Despite this, Kenyan officials believe the mission can continue through September with existing funds and are hopeful it will transition into a U.N. peacekeeping mission. However, the Trump administration hasn’t stated its position on this transition, and China and Russia oppose the move. Reuters Associated Press 

Troops from El Salvador in Haiti to join UN-backed mission fighting gang violence. A military contingent from El Salvador, consisting of 70 soldiers specializing in air support, touched down in Haiti on Tuesday to support a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police aimed at combating gang violence. This deployment will aid in critical medical evacuations. The mission, which now includes over 600 Kenyan officers along with personnel from Jamaica, Guatemala, and other nations, faces challenges due to inadequate funding and staffing. Associated Press 

Long Island County police to collaborate with ICE amid immigration crackdown. Nassau County in Long Island, New York, will collaborate with federal immigration authorities as part of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown. County Executive Bruce Blakeman announced that 10 county police detectives will be authorized to act as federal immigration agents, targeting immigrants in the U.S. illegally who have been charged with other crimes. This move makes Nassau an outlier in the state, where New York laws generally limit cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Under this partnership, police will check the immigration status of criminal suspects, notify ICE of undocumented individuals, embed officers with ICE, and provide temporary jail cells for detainees awaiting transfer. Blakeman also criticized New York’s bail reform laws, claiming the ICE partnership will help prevent repeat offenses by undocumented individuals charged with crimes. Associated Press 

Trump’s Next Fight with Mexico: Designating Drug Cartels as Terrorists. President Donald Trump is pushing to designate Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), a move that could justify expanded U.S. actions, including sanctions, asset seizures, and even potential military operations against cartel-linked targets. The designation would give U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies broader powers to combat cartel activity, including increased surveillance and financial restrictions. However, Mexico strongly opposes the move, fearing it could lead to unilateral U.S. military actions on its territory and strain diplomatic relations. Critics warn that this policy could escalate tensions, complicate cross-border security cooperation, and raise legal and geopolitical challenges. Wall Street Journal 

U.S. not permitted to send Mexicans to Guantanamo, Mexico’s foreign minister says.  Mexican Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente asserted on Tuesday that his country will not permit the U.S. to send Mexican migrants to the infamous Guantanamo Bay, and would take them in directly. He added that the Mexican government sent a diplomatic note to the U.S. embassy in Mexico, addressing this issue. Also on Tuesday, Washington sent the first military aircraft transporting around 10 detained migrants with criminal records to the naval base in Cuba. U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to expand the site, so that it can hold up to 30,000 migrants. Reuters CNN France 24  

Mexican troops deploy to border to crack down on fentanyl, in deal to delay Trump tariffs. Hundreds of Mexican soldiers mobilized to the border with the U.S. Tuesday, part of a surge of  10,000 Mexican troops to be posted to smuggling corridors. President Donald Trump held off imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, as he had threatened.  The U.S. promised to crack down on gunrunning into Mexico, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said. Reuters New York Times 

Trump examining option to send jailed American criminals to other nations. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he is considering a proposal from El Salvador to accept and imprison violent American criminals, the “most severe cases.” Legal issues, however, remain unclear, and bringing this deal into fruition would be an uphill battle. The agreement, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, would involve El Salvador housing U.S. deportees, including American citizens and legal residents convicted of violent crimes. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump asserted that he would “do it in a heartbeat,” if the government “had a legal right.” Rubio acknowledged constitutional concerns but added that the deal is “a very generous offer. No one’s ever made an offer like that.” Bukele’s suggestion aims to make El Salvador's prison system financially sustainable by charging Washington a fee. El Salvador's prisons are overcrowded and harsh, with limited legal protections for inmates. Despite these conditions, Bukele’s tough stance on crime has boosted his popularity, and significantly lowered his country’s once-staggering homicide rates.  Associated Press 

Inside El Salvador's mega-prison that could hold America’s violent criminals. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who has offered to incarcerate criminals deported from the U.S., including American inmates, is widely known for his hardline security policies and has described himself as the "coolest dictator.” Bukele has gained popularity by aggressively combating gang violence, resulting in over 84,000 arrests under an ongoing state of emergency. His administration faces allegations of human rights abuses, including arbitrary detentions, torture, and deaths in custody, which the government denies. The country’s CECOT mega-prison, launched in 2023, is Latin America's largest prison, designed to hold up to 40,000 inmates. Located in a remote area, it currently houses around 14,500 prisoners, mainly gang members. The $115 million facility has drawn praise from some politicians for its tough stance on crime but also criticism from human rights groups due to severe overcrowding, harsh conditions, and violations of international standards. El Salvador now has the highest incarceration rate globally, with 1,659 inmates per 100,000 people. Reuters Associated Press 

Neo-Nazi leader found guilty in plot to attack Baltimore power grid. Brandon Russell, a 29-year-old neo-Nazi, was convicted Monday of conspiring to attack Baltimore’s power grid in an effort to incite chaos and advance a White ethnostate. Prosecutors said Russell, who co-founded the Atomwaffen Division, coordinated with Sarah Beth Clendaniel to target power transformers. Clendaniel was previously sentenced to 18 years. Russell’s attorney argued he merely shared public information, but prosecutors cited his coordination and encouragement. FBI evidence included messages where he called transformers “sitting ducks” and advised Clendaniel on timing. U.S. Attorney Erek Barron said Russell orchestrated “a terrorist plot that would have harmed thousands.” Washington Post Reuters CBS   

EUROPE

EU Sees a Path to Negotiate with Trump to Avoid a Tariff Fight. The European Union is bracing for a trade confrontation with the U.S. but sees room for negotiation after President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month. The European Commission, wary of provoking Washington, is preparing a proportionate response while seeking to improve U.S. relations through increased imports of liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and weapons. Trump has threatened tariffs on the EU, citing trade imbalances, while Brussels is considering targeting politically sensitive U.S. industries, a tactic used in past disputes. EU leaders may extend a suspension of retaliatory tariffs past March to maintain diplomatic flexibility. Bloomberg

Greenland PM Calls Election with Trump Pressure Mounting. Greenland will hold a general election on March 11 amid renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed interest in acquiring the island. Prime Minister Mute Egede framed the election as critical, urging unity. Greenland’s parliament also passed a law banning foreign political donations to prevent external influence. While Trump has hinted at military or economic measures to secure Greenland, most Greenlanders favor independence from Denmark but oppose joining the U.S. Economic concerns persist, with 45% unwilling to pursue independence if it reduces their standard of living. Responsible for Greenland’s defense, Denmark has resisted U.S. pressure, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rallying European allies. Trump has reportedly threatened tariffs on Denmark over the issue. Internal political divisions have surfaced, with some Greenlandic politicians engaging with U.S. officials. The election will likely center on independence, economic sustainability, and Greenland’s geopolitical position between Denmark and the U.S. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press 

Georgia plans tougher penalties for protesters amid political crises. The Georgian government is advancing legislation to impose harsher penalties on protesters, including extended jail terms and increased fines. The move follows months of nightly demonstrations since Georgian Dream suspended EU accession talks until 2028. Police crackdowns have led to hundreds of arrests, with rights groups reporting abuses. Senior ruling party lawmaker Mamuka Mdinaradze claimed "external forces," including the U.S. embassy, are behind the unrest. Protesters resumed large-scale rallies Sunday, blocking a major highway. Eight demonstrators, including former Tbilisi Mayor Giorgi Ugulava, face up to four years in prison. Opposition groups continue to demand new elections, alleging vote rigging. Reuters

Belgium’s new PM plans tougher migration, nuclear revival, and defense boost. Belgium’s new Prime Minister Bart De Wever outlined his government’s priorities in parliament on Tuesday, emphasizing stricter migration policies, nuclear energy revival, and increased defense spending. Belgium received 39,615 asylum applications in 2024, exceeding its reception capacity, prompting plans to tighten family reunification rules. De Wever also aims to repeal the nuclear phase-out law, with Energy Minister Mathieu Bihet confirming interest in building new reactors. Defense spending will rise to 2% of GDP by 2029 and 2.5% by 2034, aligning with NATO commitments. De Wever, a Flemish nationalist, struck a conciliatory tone by starting his address in French. Reuters

Austrian parties deny coalition talks led by the far right have collapsed. Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) and the conservative People’s Party (OVP) denied reports that their coalition talks had collapsed but acknowledged difficulties. The FPO, which won 29% in September’s election, was tasked with forming a government after centrist efforts failed. Talks remain fragile, with disputes over key ministries and European Union affairs. The OVP reaffirmed its stance on Austria’s EU membership and media independence. Thousands protested against an FPO-led government, citing leader Herbert Kickl’s far-right views. Negotiations are set to continue, but major hurdles remain regarding power-sharing and policy control. Reuters

The Russian TV Star Who Became the Voice of the Kremlin. Dmitry Kiselyov, Russia’s most influential propagandist, has shaped public opinion for over a decade through his News of the Week show. Once an admirer of Western journalism, he became a Kremlin loyalist, promoting Vladimir Putin’s narratives. His broadcasts glorify Russia’s war efforts, dismiss Western concerns, and omit Russia’s military losses. Once a defender of journalistic ethics, Kiselyov now dismisses objectivity as a myth. He echoes Putin’s policies, which influence both the public and officials. Despite being sanctioned by the West, he remains central to Russia’s state-controlled media, ensuring Putin’s image as Russia’s indispensable leader. Wall Street Journal

THE MIDDLE EAST

US reimposes 'maximum pressure' on Iran, says Tehran ‘cannot have a nuclear weapon.’ On Tuesday in Washington, Donald Trump said he had "left instructions" for Iran to be "obliterated" if it assassinates him. The statement came as he reinstated his “maximum pressure” campaign, signing an executive order aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero. At a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump warned Iran against assassinating him. “If they did that, they would be obliterated. That would be the end. There won’t be anything left.” He criticized Joe Biden for not taking a similar stance, adding, “Biden should have said that, but he never did.” Trump also said, “Iran is too close” to a nuclear weapon and invited Tehran to negotiate. However, he emphasized, “They cannot have a nuclear weapon. If I think that they will have a nuclear weapon... that’s going to be very unfortunate for them.” His administration is pushing to reimpose United Nations sanctions, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed openness to negotiations. New York Times Reuters Times of Israel The White House Associated Press Reuters 

In Turkey, New Syrian Leader and Erdogan Pledge to Work Together. Ahmed al-Shara, Syria’s interim president, met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Tuesday, thanking him for Turkey’s support in toppling Bashar al-Assad. Al-Shara, appointed last week by rebel leaders, called for a “deep, strategic relationship” between their countries, particularly on security issues, including northeastern Syria, which remains under Kurdish-led militia control. Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s commitment to unifying Syria and combating Kurdish groups it deems terrorists. Turkey, hosting over three million Syrian refugees, seeks stability to prevent further displacement. Erdogan pledged support for Syria’s reconstruction and urged the lifting of sanctions. Al-Shara also met Gulf leaders, including Qatar’s emir and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, though their financial commitments remain uncertain. Despite his declared break from Al Qaeda, the militia he leads is still classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. Al-Shara invited Erdogan to visit Syria, underscoring Turkey’s critical role in the country’s future. New York Times

Syrians who returned home from Turkey shocked by conditions, worried for future in war-ravaged nation. Ahmed al-Sheikh, one of 35,000 Syrians who returned from Turkey three weeks after the ousting of leader Bashar al-Assad in early December, is disillusioned by the harsh living conditions in war-torn Syria. Despite initial excitement, many returnees face inadequate water, electricity, healthcare, and education. Sheikh regrets leaving Turkey, where he had established a stable life, but cannot return, as he chose to sign a voluntary return document. Turkey, which hosts nearly 3 million Syrians, faces political pressure over migration. In response, the Turkish government has launched a scheme allowing Syrian migrants temporary visits to their country to assess conditions before deciding on permanent return. While some are struggling in Syria, others prefer to stay in Turkey until conditions improve. Between the fall of Assad's regime and late January, at least 81,576 Syrians had entered the nation. The U.N. supports Ankara’s voluntary return policy, stressing the importance of refugees assessing conditions firsthand. Reuters

Inside the Syrian prison holding thousands of Islamic State-linked detainees. Northeast Syria’s Gweiran Prison, now called Panorama, holds around 4,500 alleged Islamic State (IS) members, captured during the fall of the IS caliphate in 2019. Following Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's recent ouster, attention has increased on such detention centers in the country, which collectively hold about 9,000 IS detainees without trial. Last month, the commander of the U.S. Central Command said that the prisoners are “a literal and figurative ‘ISIS army’ in detention.” The prisons are guarded by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who face security challenges amid recent conflicts and fears of IS attacks aimed at freeing detainees. Some detainees interviewed by the Associated Press express regret, as well as a desire to return to their home countries. Two prisoners, a nurse called Maher from Australia and an unnamed British man from London, claimed to have had minimal involvement with IS. Many detainees have been imprisoned for years without trial or contact with their families. The SDF opposes Turkey’s offer to help manage these detention centers, urging Ankara to cease attacks on SDF-held areas to improve security. The fate of these prisoners remains uncertain as Syria's new government and the SDF discuss the country’s future. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

Amid rivalry for influence, East Timor says it prefers cooperation with Australia over Chinese firms on gas project. East Timor's President, Jose Ramos-Horta, has expressed a clear preference to develop the Greater Sunrise natural gas field with existing partners—Australia's Woodside Energy and Japan's Osaka Gas—over Chinese or Kuwaiti firms, despite previous suggestions of involving new partners. East Timor has deliberately stalled approaches from Chinese companies like Sinopec and Kuwaiti investors, reaffirming its commitment to Australian collaboration. Greater Sunrise, with an estimated 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas and potential revenues of $65 billion, is critical for East Timor's economy but has faced long-standing delays due to disagreements over development plans. Canberra has voiced worries in the past about China’s mounting influence in the Pacific. While Woodside and Osaka Gas prefer piping gas to Australia’s Darwin LNG hub, Ramos-Horta insists that building an LNG plant in East Timor is equally viable. The president emphasized the urgency of finalizing an agreement before Australia's upcoming federal elections to avoid further delays. Additionally, East Timor is pursuing ASEAN membership, expanding mining ventures with Australian firms, and exploring onshore natural gas. Reuters South China Morning Post 

Chinese start-up to expand to Central Asia with Kazakhstan robotics facility. China’s humanoid robotics industry is expanding into Central Asia, with Shanghai-based start-up AgiBot partnering with Kazakhstan to establish robotics manufacturing facilities, a data center for training AI systems, and an R&D center. This marks the first time a Chinese robotics company will localize production in the region. The deal, signed at the Digital Almaty 2025 forum, aligns with Kazakhstan’s strategy to diversify its economy beyond natural resources, focusing on AI, green energy, and tech development. AgiBot, founded by former Huawei engineer Peng Zhihui, will also collaborate with Kazakh universities on research, train students in robotics, and showcase prototypes in Astana. The project will be funded by Kazakhstan’s Qazaqstan Investment Corporation and Saudi-backed EWPartners. China’s humanoid robotics sector is rapidly growing, with exports exceeding 3.5 million robots in 2024, valued at $1.15 billion. The industry is projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, driven by key players like Unitree, Leju Robotics, Xpeng, and Xiaomi, competing globally with companies like Tesla and Amazon-backed firms. South China Morning Post 

‘Patriots’: South Korean ex-defense minister praises protestors who stormed court. Former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, currently imprisoned for insurrection related to the botched martial law declaration on December 3, praised protesters who stormed a Seoul court following the extension of President Yoon Suk Yeol's detention. Calling them "patriotic warriors," Kim pledged to use donations from his supporters to assist those arrested during the January 19 incident, which involved property damage and assaults on reporters. Over 60 people, mostly in their 20s and 30s, were detained. While a majority of South Koreans support Yoon's impeachment, he maintains strong backing from young conservative men, with pro-Yoon YouTubers spreading claims of election fraud, echoing justifications for the martial law. Kim, a close ally of Yoon, defended the president during his impeachment trial, claiming there was no intention to fully enforce martial law. Kim also attempted suicide shortly after his arrest, according to officials. Reuters 

Maternal deaths in Afghanistan may leap following U.S. funding pause, says U.N. A U.S. funding pause ordered by President Donald Trump could severely impact sexual and reproductive health services in Afghanistan and beyond. The 90-day suspension, part of a sweeping review of foreign aid, threatens to cut off services for over 9 million Afghans and 1.2 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan, potentially leading to more than 1,200 additional maternal deaths and 109,000 unintended pregnancies between 2025 and 2028, according to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA). According to a U.N. official, a mother dies of preventable pregnancy complications every two hours in Afghanistan. The country, already facing such high maternal mortality rates, would be hit hardest as health facilities may close. The funding halt also affects the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), which expects to lose at least $61 million over four years in 13 countries, mainly in Africa, jeopardizing access to contraceptives and increasing the risk of unintended pregnancies and maternal deaths. Reuters 

Pakistan Sets Deadline For West To Relocate Afghan Refugees. Pakistan has set a March 31 deadline for Western countries to relocate Afghan refugees awaiting resettlement or face deportation, according to sources. The decision, made in a Jan. 30 cabinet meeting, comes amid ongoing crackdowns on undocumented Afghans. Many refugees, including journalist Mahmood Kochai, had been approved to move to the U.S., but Donald Trump’s suspension of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program on Jan. 27 left them stranded. Kochai, whose visa expired Feb. 5, said, “Afghan refugees in Pakistan are caught between a rock and a hard place.” Pakistan has already deported or seen the voluntary return of 800,000 Afghans since November 2023. Some 40,000 Afghans remain in limbo, including 15,000 waiting for U.S. relocation. Meanwhile, 1.45 million Afghan refugees registered with the UN have been allowed to stay until June. Whether the U.S. will resume its resettlement program remains uncertain, as Trump's administration reviews refugee entry every 90 days. RFE/RL

AFRICA

‘False communication’: Congo blasts rebel ceasefire as reports of clashes continue. The Congolese government on Tuesday dismissed the ceasefire recently declared by Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern Congo as “false communication,” citing ongoing heavy fighting in spite of the announcement. The M23, which last week seized Goma, a city of 2 million, claimed the ceasefire was for humanitarian reasons amid a growing crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced. As Congo demands M23’s full withdrawal, the UN continues to report clashes, especially in South Kivu. M23 insurgents, supported by about 4,000 Rwandan troops, have been advancing in the region, causing significant casualties and exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. Congo’s government has accused Rwanda of committing mass killings, with claims that 2,000 have been killed in recent fighting. The U.N. has reported at least 900 fatalities in Goma alone. Regional leaders will meet in Tanzania on Friday and Saturday to address the escalating conflict. Amid ongoing violence, Congolese families are mourning their dead, pleading for peace, and struggling to survive. The U.N. has called for Goma's airport to reopen to aid in evacuating the wounded and delivering humanitarian assistance. Associated Press 

Sources say Uganda deploying 1,000 more troops to Congo’s volatile east, near M23 conflict. In the last week, Uganda has sent more than 1,000 additional soldiers to eastern Congo, near areas where the Congolese government is battling Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, according to diplomatic and U.N. sources. This deployment is part of Operation Shujaa, which targets the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). It brings Uganda’s troop count in the region to around 4,000-5,000. Despite officially supporting Congo against the ADF, Uganda has also faced accusations that it backed the M23, though it denies providing support. Though a Ugandan army spokesperson rejected the idea of a new deployment, locals in the town of Butembo reported witnessing lines of Ugandan soldiers moving south towards the front lines. The M23, which captured Goma last week and is reportedly advancing towards Bukavu, has strong ties to Rwanda, further complicating the situation. Uganda’s strategic interests in eastern Congo’s mineral wealth and trade are believed to influence its military actions. Tensions are heightened by Uganda’s ambiguous role, with influential figures like Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda's president, expressing support for Rwanda and the M23. Meanwhile, Congo’s government remains suspicious of Uganda’s intentions amid ongoing conflict and shifting alliances in the region. Reuters 

Congolese rushing to bury bodies as tenuous Goma ceasefire holds, for the most part. Residents in Goma, eastern Congo's largest city, are scrambling to bury victims of last week’s violence after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized the provincial capital and left at least 2,000 dead, according to the Congolese government. U.N. reports put the number of deaths at 900, with nearly 3,000 injured, but the death toll discrepancy remains unclear. Amid fears of disease from overflowing morgues and limited burial space, locals are rushing to dispose of corpses, and the ceasefire, declared on Monday by the M23, is largely holding despite scattered reports of shooting and looting. Hospitals are overwhelmed, and aid groups are working to manage the crisis. The UN has called for the urgent reopening of Goma's airport to facilitate humanitarian aid. Reuters

Musk's father says he arranged son's call with South Africa’s Ramaphosa amid U.S. tensions. Errol Musk, the 78-year-old father of tech billionaire Elon Musk, has said that he arranged a call between his son and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Monday evening, after an adviser to the leader reached out and requested help in connecting the two. The call comes amidst tensions sparked by Elon Musk’s public accusations of anti-white racism in South Africa and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to cut over $400 million in U.S. aid to the country. Trump recently criticized South Africa’s new land reform law, which allows for land expropriation without compensation to address racial disparities rooted in apartheid. Trump’s comments, echoed by Elon Musk on social media, caused a drop in Pretoria’s currency and financial markets. Ramaphosa’s office confirmed the call but declined to discuss its details. Errol Musk supported Trump’s stance, questioning Washington’s funding for South Africa, particularly HIV/AIDS aid, which significantly supports South Africa’s health programs. The land reform law aims to correct historic injustices, as white landowners still control the majority of farmland despite Black South Africans making up 80% of the population. Ramaphosa denied any land confiscation, emphasizing the policy’s goal of equitable land access. The situation drew comparisons to Zimbabwe’s controversial and violent land seizures of the 2000s, though South Africa has not pursued similar forced measures. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

China launches Google antitrust investigation as part of retaliation for U.S. tariffs. China has announced that it will conduct an antitrust investigation into Google, reportedly in retaliation for the 10 percent tariff the U.S. has imposed on Chinese goods.  The State Administration for Market Regulation will look into alleged monopolistic practices by Google, which maintains advertising operations in China even after its search and internet services were blocked in 2010.  According to the South China Morning Post, the Google investigation is unusual since the company has a marginal presence in China’s internet service market.  In 2019, Google reportedly earned more than $3 billion in sales to China-based advertisers.  In other moves by Beijing, authorities have added Illumina, a gene sequencing company, to a restricted entities list while China’s Ministry of Commerce announced fresh export controls for tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium.  China also announced 10 percent tariffs on farm equipment imports that could impact firms such as Caterpillar, Deerem and AGCO.  Tariffs also are being levied against a small number of trucks and big-engine sedans, which could apply to Elon Musk's Cybertruck as it awaits regulatory clearance to begin sales.  If the Cybertruck is designated as an electric truck, Tesla would face a 10 percent tariff on any future imports.  TechCrunch Reuters South China Morning Post Cybernews

Experts cite national security risks of DOGE access to federal systems.  Cybersecurity experts are warning that the broad access to federal networks exercised by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk’s leadership could pose significant national security risks.  The warnings emerge even as DOGE supporters point to the potential savings that could be achieved by widespread use of AI in federal operations.  Thomas Shedd, a former Tesla engineer who has been appointed to lead technology efforts at the General Services Administration (GSA), has said that AI will play a key role in GSA’s cost-reduction activities, with budget cuts of up to 50 percent expected.  Shedd told the staff at Technology Transformation Services (TTS), a GSA component, that he plans to gather government contracts in a central database and use AI to identify potential redundancies and budget reductions.  Musk has claimed that the elimination of fraudulent practices like “fake people” collecting Social Security and Medicare payments, alongside “foreign fraud rings,” could lead to taxpayer savings of $100-200 billion annually.  Meanwhile, concerns for the protection of agency systems such as the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) have mounted due to the lack of clarity on the security procedures followed by DOGE staff.  Jason Kikta, a former U.S. Cyber Command official, said “this has the potential to be the largest breach [of government systems] ever by orders of magnitude and could have consequences for decades.”  DOGE has carried out unspecified operations involving networks at OPM, the Treasury Department, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), among others.  Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, noted that “the government has spent years establishing proper controls and governance for access to federal government networks.  This is unacceptable behavior, no matter how important the tasking is.”  The Record   New York Times   Wired

NASA pauses science committee meetings pending review of Trump executive orders. NASA has paused the work of at least 10 planetary and astrophysics science committees while assessments are conducted of the groups’ compliance with new White House executive orders.  The committees are engaged in analysis of multiple topics, including the exploration of the moon and solar system planets as well as "ocean worlds" like the icy moons of Saturn and Jupiter.  Memos from NASA authorities specify six Trump executive orders for the basis of the pause.  Three deal with ending diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, two target "gender ideology extremism," and one rolls back climate change-related executive orders by the Biden administration.  Due to the pause order, a planetary science meeting of the Mercury exploration group scheduled for February 4-6 will not be held.  Carolyn Ernst, the chair of the Mercury committee chair and a planetary scientist with Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, wrote to the committee that "this turn of events is shocking and concerning, and is extra painful given the order comes four days before our first in-person meeting."  The Mercury meeting involved 200 scientists attending either in person or virtually and was expected to include researchers connected to the BepiColombo Mercury mission run by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the European Space Agency.  Space

OpenAI expands Asian operations through new partnership with South Korea’s Kakao tech firm.  OpenAI has concluded another collaboration with an Asian partner, the South Korean tech and messaging company, Kakao.  Soon after announcing a deal to provide AI services in Japan to SoftBank, OpenAI’s agreement with Kakao focuses on three immediate projects – development of an OpenAI-powered Korean-language assistant called Kanana, integration of OpenAI tech into the KakaoTalk messaging app, Kakao’s use of ChatGPT Enterprise for internal operations.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and his Kakao counterpart, Shina Chung, announced the agreement at an even in Seoul on Tuesday.   The SoftBank and Kakoa partnerships will introduce OpenAI services to new populations in their native languages.  Altman told reporters that “the adoption of AI in Korea is remarkably advanced. Considering various industries, from energy to semiconductors and internet companies, there is a very strong environment conducive to applying AI. It is a market that is extremely important to us and is growing rapidly.”  Altman also is making connections with other major Korean tech giants, including meetings with Samsung and SK Hynix executives to discuss custom-designed chips and AI-powered devices.  TechCrunch   Bloomberg   Reuters

Australia bans DeepSeek apps government devices over national security concerns. Australia has joined a growing list of governments and companies in banning DeepSeek AI services from systems and devices.  Tony, Burke, the Australian Home Affairs minister, said that DeepSeek applications would be removed, effective immediately, from systems on national security grounds.  Acknowledging AI’s potential, Burke said the government nevertheless “will not hesitate to act when our agencies identify a national security risk.”  Burke dismissed the idea that the ban was because of DeepSeek’s Chinese origins, saying that the decision was “country-agnostic and focused on the risk to the Australian Government and our assets.”  While the ban does not extend to personal devices of citizens, Burke urged Australians to consider how their data is used and “understand their online presence and protect their privacy.”  Australia follows actions by Italy, Ireland, and Taiwan to examine DeepSeek’s possible threat to data privacy.  Meanwhile, the Belgian data privacy protection agency has confirmed it has received a complaint concerning DeepSeek, but did not provide further details.   Bloomberg   Reuters   Reuters

Threat researchers discover new North Korean malware variants targeting macOS systems. SentinelOne researchers have discovered previously undetected variants of the masOS Ferret malware tool used by North Korean threat actors.  The malware reportedly is in use as part of North Korea’s “Contagious Interview” campaign that attempts to lure targets into downloading malware on the pretense of job interviews.  Emails from purported job recruiters contain inks that display error messages instructing users to install what are described as required virtual meeting software but are in fact malware.  SentinelOne reports that following an Apple update to its XProtect tool researchers have discovered new malware samples labeled as “FlexibleFerrit.”   According to SentinelOne, the threat actors have expanded their attacks to developers with efforts to get them to download the FERRET family droppers.  SentinelLabs says the new exploits indicate that “threat actors are happy to expand the vectors by which they deliver the malware,” a move that suggests the indicators found in the FERRET malware overlap with other North Korean campaigns.  Cybernews

Anthropic unveils new ‘shield’ that reduces effectiveness of AI jailbreak attacks. The AI firm Anthropic on Monday announced a new method to defeat the attacks on AI systems known as jailbreaks.  Rather than introduce continuous updates to its AI models, Anthropic has devised a barrier that stops attempted jailbreak prompts from entering the model and unwanted responses from the model being generated.   Concerned primarily with “universal jailbreaks,” which attempt to force a model to drop all its defenses (e.g., a “Do Anything Now – DAN – prompt), Anthropic maintains a list of the types of questions its models should refuse.  It has built its shield by prompting the Claude model to generate a large number of synthetic questions and answers covering both acceptable and unacceptable interactions with the model.   After a series of training sessions and tests, Anthropic reports that 86 percent of jailbreak attacks succeeded when Claude was not protected by the shield while only 4.4% of the attacks worked with the shield in place.  Alex Robey, a researcher who studies jailbreaks at Carnegie Mellon University, said “it’s rare to see evaluations done at this scale.  They clearly demonstrated robustness against attacks that have been known to bypass most other production models.”  Anthropic acknowledges that a downside to the shield, which itself is an LLM, is that it increases computing costs by almost 25 percent compared to the underlying model operating alone.  Mrinank Sharma, the leader of Anthropic’s team developing the shield, said “we’re not saying the system is bulletproof…It’s more like: How much effort would it take to get one of these jailbreaks through? If the amount of effort is high enough, that deters a lot of people.”  MIT Technology Review   Ars Technica   Cybernews

China’s 2026 moon mission features ‘flying robot’ designed to detect lunar water.  A key part of China’s Chang’e-7 lunar mission next year is the deployment of a “flying detector” robot designed to search for water on the moon’s south pole.  Chinese space officials described the flying robot during state TV interviews on Monday and confirmed that the Chang’e-7 mission will be a key to the goal of landing a crew on the moon by 2030.  The Chang’e-7 mission features an orbiter, lander, lunar rover and the flying detector.  The rover, lander, and detector will work concert to conduct the most detailed survey of the lunar south pole thus far.  Tang Yuhua, deputy chief designer of the Chang’e-7 mission, described the capabilities of the flying robot, noting that “it can land reliably and repeatedly on different slopes, much like how a human bends their legs when jumping from a height.”  A Chinese Academy of Space Technology paper in 2023 said that flying robot can travel dozens of kilometers in a single leap unlike conventional rovers, which are limited to a few kilometers.  The paper also explained that the detector is expected to perform at least three powered leaps before switching to solar power for extended surface exploration.  Space experts believe that lunar water originates from three sources: residual water from the moon’s formation, comet and asteroid impacts, and chemical reactions between solar winds and lunar soil.  South China Morning Post

Ex-Google Engineer Charged with Espionage to Boost AI in China. Former Google engineer Linwei Ding, also known as Leon Ding, faces new U.S. charges of economic espionage for allegedly stealing AI-related trade secrets to aid China’s tech industry. Initially indicted in March, Ding now faces 14 counts, including theft of proprietary chip technology used in training AI models like Gemini. He allegedly founded a startup in China and sought support from a Shanghai-based talent program promoting technological transfers. If convicted, he could face up to 15 years per espionage charge. The case follows heightened U.S. scrutiny of Chinese-linked intellectual property theft. Ding has pleaded not guilty. Bloomberg

Gold hits all-time high on Sino-US tariff war. Gold surged to a record $2,858.12 per ounce as China retaliated against U.S. tariffs, fueling safe-haven demand. Analysts see $3,000 as the next milestone, especially if trade tensions escalate. President Donald Trump showed no urgency in negotiating with China’s Xi Jinping, while Federal Reserve officials warned tariffs could drive inflation. Investors await key U.S. employment data for economic signals. Meanwhile, silver and platinum gained, while palladium remained steady amid broader market uncertainty. Reuters Economic Times

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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