Report for Wednesday, August 14, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Hamas won’t attend cease-fire talks

Ukraine pounds Russia with drones and says it is advancing deeper

Parallel conflicts in Europe, Middle East stretch Russia-Iran relations

Chinese, Russian militaries are training together in global arenas, from Alaska to Taiwan

The Taliban celebrate 3 years of ruling Afghanistan; what has happened since their return?

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Three Years After Taliban Return, Terrorists Find Safe Haven in Afghanistan The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

U.S. approves $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel as Iran attack looms.  The State Department has approved $20 billion in sales of F-15 fighter jets and high-tech weapons systems for Israel. The arms package includes tank rounds, mortar rounds, and army vehicles.  The big-ticket items – 50 F-15IA and F-15I fighter planes costing $18.8 billion – won’t be delivered until 2029 or later, and the smaller arms, starting in 2026.  But the announcement itself may serve as a morale boost for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at a moment when Israel is bracing for attacks from Iran and its proxies, retribution for Israel’s assassination of aHamas leader in Tehran last month and its suspected assassination of a Hezbollah leader in Beirut.  Reuters Defense Security Cooperation Agency  Politico 

Hamas won’t attend cease-fire talks.  A Hamas official said Tuesday that the group won’t take part in the round of cease-fire talks on Thursday. The U.S., Qatar and Egypt have been pressing Hamas and Israel to meet in either Doha or Cairo and seal a deal. Hamas representative Ahmad Abdul Hadi said “Netanyahu is not interested in reaching an agreement that ends the aggression completely. But rather he is deceiving and evading and wants to prolong the war, and even expand it at the regional level.” Documents reviewed by The New York Times show Netanyahu has made new demands in recent weeks and can be accused of moving goalposts.  Netanyahu’s office has denied that he added new conditions but was simply trying to clarify ambiguities.  New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Withdraws Some Forces from Ukraine in Response to Kursk Invasion. Russia has withdrawn some military forces from Ukraine to respond to the surprise Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk province, a move that has forced Moscow to adjust its invasion strategy. Ukrainian forces have advanced at least 20 miles into Russian territory, seizing control of 74 towns and villages, and disrupting Russian war logistics and infrastructure, a key goal. Moscow has used the Kursk region to launch aerial and artillery strikes on Ukraine as well as to support its incursion into Ukraine’s Kharkiv province. Ukraine’s thrust into Kursk has pushed Russian artillery out of range of Sumy province villages in Ukraine that have been under fire for months, although Russian planes are now reportedly dropping aviation bombs on them instead. While Ukrainian officials emphasize that the operation aims to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks, the incursion has also bolstered Ukrainian morale and demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to strike back against Russia. Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhi said Kyiv wasn’t interested in occupying Russian territory. However, sustaining this advance may prove challenging as supply lines lengthen and Russia regroups. Wall Street Journal New York Times

Ukraine pounds Russia with drones and says it is advancing deeper. Ukraine pounded Russian regions with missiles and drones on Wednesday as Kyiv said it was advancing deeper in the biggest foreign incursion into Russian since WWII. Russia said on Wednesday that it had destroyed 117 Ukrainian drones in Russia overnight, mostly in the Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod and Nizhny Novgorod regions. It said missiles had also been shot down and showed Sukhoi Su-34 bombers pounding Ukrainian positions in Kursk. Ukraine's military said it controls 74 Russian settlements. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted the capture of Russian prisoners that can be traded in future exchanges. Shown speaking by video link, the Ukrainian leader asked his top commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, to develop the next "key steps" in the operation. The incursion has forced Moscow to shift military resources and prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to vow a "worthy response." Some 200,000 people have reportedly been evacuated from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is among Ukraine’s Western allies offering support. Russian military actions in Ukraine bear “the hallmarks of genocide, inhumane crimes, and Ukraine has every right to wage war in such a way as to paralyze Russia in its aggressive intentions as effectively as possible,” Tusk said. Reuters  Reuters Associated Press  Bloomberg RFE/RL 

Biden calls Ukraine incursion 'a real dilemma for Putin.' President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s military incursion into Russia has created a dilemma for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Thousands of Ukrainian troops have crossed into Russia's Kursk region, forcing Moscow to reconsider its military positioning. While Biden confirmed that the U.S. was not involved in the operation, he noted that the incursion appeared to have caught Russia off guard. The White House stressed that Ukraine did not provide advance notice of the attack. Biden in May authorized Kyiv to launch U.S.-supplied weapons at military targets inside Russia that are supporting an offensive against the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Reuters 

What next after Ukraine’s shock invasion of Russia? Ukraine's rapid incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has surpassed expectations, with Ukrainian forces seizing around 1,000 square kilometers. The operation, initially aimed at boosting morale and securing more Western support, now presents Ukraine with several strategic options: hold the territory as a bargaining chip, pull back to preserve resources, or withdraw to a more defensible position near the border. The Biden administration and other Western allies have supported the operation, acknowledging Ukraine’s right to self-defense. President Voldymyr Zelensky’s challenge is now to translate the success of the past week into something enduring Economist

Thousands of Ukraine troops ready to defend land captured in daring attack into Russia. The long-term objectives of Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region include holding and fortifying captured territory. Ukrainian forces aim to create a deep buffer zone to protect vulnerable areas like Kharkiv from Russian attacks, destroy Russian military facilities, and use occupied territory as leverage in future peace negotiations. Thousands of Ukrainian troops, including elite units, are prepared for extended operations in Russia, signaling Kyiv's intent to maintain a prolonged presence in the region. The Independent

Deception and a Gamble: How Ukrainian Troops Invaded Russia. Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region was meticulously planned and executed in secrecy, catching even Kyiv’s allies by surprise. The operation involved the quiet movement of Ukrainian brigades, previously engaged on other fronts, into the Sumy region under the guise of training. Ukrainian forces utilized deceptive tactics, such as avoiding military uniforms to prevent detection. The operation's success was bolstered by the absence of dense Russian fortifications and fewer mines in the Kursk region compared to other areas. Ukrainian soldiers were informed of the mission only at the last moment, ensuring operational security and maximizing the element of surprise against Russian defenses. New York Times 

Ukraine Plotted Incursion to Throw Kremlin Off Balance. Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region was aimed at disrupting the Kremlin’s control and putting President Vladimir Putin on the defensive. The operation seeks to challenge Russian military dominance and shift the war's momentum, which had been favoring Moscow. By seizing around 1,000 square kilometers of territory, Ukraine wants to destabilize Russian forces and demonstrate its capability to strike deep into Russian territory. This bold move also served to expose vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses and pressure Putin by forcing him to address a new front, thereby weakening his military strategy. The situation remains fluid, with no clear front line and both armies focused on striking their opponents where they find them. Russia continued its attacks on Ukraine. Overnight missiles strikes on Tuesday disrupted power and gas supplies to parts of the Ukrainian city of Sumy, across the border from Kursk Bloomberg Bloomberg 

Ukraine’s battle against Russia in maps. The article provides updates on Ukraine's battle against Russia, featuring detailed maps, charts, and satellite imagery. It highlights Ukraine's ongoing surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken control of over 1,000 square kilometers of territory. The article also revisits key events, including Ukraine's counteroffensive, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, and Russia's capture of Bakhmut, all illustrated through various maps that track the progression and impact of the war. Financial Times

China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese government support for Moscow has shifted from cautious concern to cautious optimism, with Chinese analysts now downplaying the conflict's risks. Initially, Chinese experts worried about the war’s impact on China’s relations with Europe and the U.S., but now they highlight Russia's resilience to sanctions and diplomatic isolation. However, these experts underestimate the costs China has incurred, including deteriorating relations with Europe and increased global economic fragmentation, which could damage China’s long-term strategic interests. Foreign Affairs 

Ukraine's presidential aide says Russia must be forced to attend peace summit. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Tuesday that Russia must be coerced into attending a peace summit, as it won't participate willingly. He emphasized that battlefield actions, like Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, along with economic and diplomatic pressure, are necessary tools for coercion. Podolyak also highlighted that Ukraine's operations in Russia's border regions aim to secure its own safety by destroying war infrastructure and creating buffer zones to prevent Russian attacks. Reuters 

Russia calls out Ukraine allies at UN for silence on Kursk assault. At a United Nations Security Council meeting on Tuesday, Russia criticized Western allies for not condemning Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, accusing Kyiv of killing civilians. Ukraine's Western supporters, including the U.S., France, and Britain, stood firm in their support for Kyiv, with American and European diplomats condemning Russia for its war crimes in Ukraine. “We will not recognize the aggressor as the victim," said senior Slovenian diplomat Klemen Ponikvar, one of several members to accuse Russia of hypocrisy, double standards and wasting the Security Council's time. The Western nations emphasized their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty, while diplomats from Syria, Belarus, and North Korea supported Russia's position. Reuters

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 13 over past day. Over the past day, Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured 13 others, including a child. Ukrainian air defenses downed 17 of 23 "kamikaze" drones launched by Russia. Fatalities were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts, while injuries occurred in Kherson, Zhytomyr, and other regions. In Dnipropetrovsk, a 33-year-old man died from shrapnel wounds. Several infrastructure facilities were damaged, but no casualties were reported in other attacked regions. Kyiv independent

Russia arrests army staffer suspected of spying for Ukraine. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested an employee of a military unit in southern Russia for allegedly spying for Ukraine. The woman, who joined the unit in January 2023, reportedly collected information on military arsenals and bases, and passed it to Ukrainian intelligence via the Signal app. The arrest follows Ukraine's recent incursion into Russian territory. The woman is detained on charges of high treason, and her identity has not been disclosed by Russian authorities. Politico EU

Romania defuses stray mine on its Black Sea shore. Romania's navy safely detonated a stray mine that had drifted to its Black Sea shore near Grindul Chituc, part of the Danube Delta, on Tuesday. The mine was likely an anti-landing mine, detected by local officials and confirmed by the navy. Romania, along with Bulgaria and Turkey, has a joint taskforce to defuse such mines, which have been drifting in the Black Sea since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Over 100 drifting mines have been discovered and destroyed since the war began. The Black Sea is crucial for shipments of grain, oil and oil products and is shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Turkey, as well as Ukraine and Russia. Reuters

Ukraine receives 4.2 billion euros from EU, prime minister says. Ukraine has received a new 4.2-billion-euro tranche from the European Union's lending facility, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday. Shmyhal said that the government expected to receive one more tranche from the EU's four-year facility by the end of this year and would channel the funds to finance social and humanitarian spending. Reuters

Ukraine approves $20 billion plan to increase renewable energy production by 2030. Ukraine plans to invest $20 billion to boost renewable energy's share to 27% of its energy mix by 2030, up from an estimated 10% today, as the country rebuilds its energy sector after losing half of its generating capacity to Russian attacks. The plan includes adding 10,000 megawatts of new renewable generation facilities. By 2030, renewable energy should account for 33% of heat and cold supply, 29% of electricity generation, and 17% of the transport sector. Nuclear is Ukraine's largest source of low-carbon energy, but its plants have become the site of safety fears during the war with Russia. Reuters 

Ukraine launches new graduate program in drone development. Ukraine's Digital Transformation Ministry, in collaboration with the Kyiv School of Economics, has launched a new master's program focused on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The program aims to train engineers in drone development, including design, testing, and analysis. With over 500 Ukrainian companies in the drone sector, this initiative is part of a broader effort to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities. The program will also offer 10 scholarships to military personnel and involve companies from the Brave1 defense tech initiative. Ukraine has the capacity to produce more than 3 million drones each year. Kyiv Independent 

Belarus to transfer military equipment to Russia amid Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast, media says. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko ordered the transfer of military equipment to Russia to reinforce its forces in Kursk Oblast and other front-line areas, following an urgent request from Russia due to equipment shortages. The transfer includes supplies directly from combat units, which could indicate depleted Belarusian stockpiles. Lukashenko previously sent equipment to Russia in 2022. Despite Minsk's claims of border reinforcement, Ukraine has not observed additional Belarusian troops near the border, with officials suggesting it may be for propaganda purpose. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks from occupied Kinburn Spit block navigation, Ukraine's Navy says. Russian troops are using the occupied Kinburn Spit to launch attacks on Ukraine's southern regions and threaten vessels potentially entering Mykolaiv ports, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk. The Kinburn Spit, located at the mouth of the Dnipro River, remains under Russian control and is crucial for both sides. Ukrainian special forces recently conducted a raid on the spit, killing around 30 Russian soldiers, destroying six armored vehicles, and raising a Ukrainian flag. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, August 13, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and officials provided updates on the ongoing incursion into Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces reportedly operating in numerous localities as they aim to secure borders and disrupt Russian military activities. Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces continue advancing in Kursk Oblast, despite Russian efforts to stabilize the frontline. The Russian military command is likely reallocating elements of irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Russian authorities are increasingly relying on conscripts and elements from less critical frontline sectors to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast. President Vladimir Putin appointed Alexei Dyumin to oversee Russia’s counterterrorism operation in Kursk Oblast, fueling speculation about potential shifts in Russian military and political leadership. Russian officials continue to misrepresent Ukraine as unwilling to engage in peace negotiations, while insisting on Ukraine's total defeat as a condition for any settlement. Russian authorities fined Telegram and WhatsApp for not removing prohibited content, as part of ongoing efforts to tighten control over the Russian information space. The Russian Ministry of Defense is using the Army-2024 Forum in Moscow to strengthen international defense relations.

Battlefield updates: Ukrainian and Russian forces both made recent advances in key areas, with Ukraine advancing in Siversk and western Zaporizhia, while Russia advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics jump into rocket motor business.   Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics said Tuesday they’ll start building their own rocket motors, to remedy shortages that have affected Ukraine’s defenses and the U.S. posture confronting China. Both companies criticized rocket-motor suppliers, Northrop Grumman and the Aerojet Rocketdyne arm of L3Harris Technologies, over production delays.  General Dynamics will start production of solid rocket motors for Lockheed Martin next year at its Arkansas plant, Lockheed Martin and RTX make the GMLRS used by the Himars launchers.  Wall Street Journal 

U.S. Navy's newest air-to-air missile could tilt balance in South China Sea.  The U.S. Navy's deployment of the AIM-174B missile in the Indo-Pacific marks a significant shift in power dynamics, potentially neutralizing China's advantage in aerial combat. The missile, which has a much longer range than its predecessors, allows U.S. forces to engage targets from safer distances, keeping Chinese aircraft at bay and protecting high-value U.S. assets. This development is seen as a response to China's advancements in missile technology, particularly the PL-15 missile, which previously outmatched U.S. capabilities. The AIM-174B could change Chinese military strategies and increase the likelihood of U.S. involvement in regional conflicts, especially in the South China Sea. The missile's deployment underscores the growing tensions and the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in global military affairs.  Reuters

Airbus maneuvering to speed past Boeing.   Airbus’s commercial aircraft division was soaring, while rival Boeing was mired in crisis.  But this year, Airbus has suffered delays and missed production targets. Orders during the first half of 2024 were less than a third of those for the same period in 2023. Airbus stock is down more than 20% from a record high in March.  Wall Street Journal 

FBI warns Harris campaign that it’s being targeted by foreign hackers.  Kamala Harris’s campaign said the FBI has warned that a foreign influence operation is trying to break into its systems, but so far, no breaches have been found. The campaign says it has installed “robust cybersecurity measures.” The news broke after the FBI disclosed it was investigating a hack of the Trump campaign and a leak of documents.  Guardian 

Army intel analyst Korbein Schultz pleads guilty to selling military secrets to China.  Sgt. Korbein Schultz pleaded guilty Tuesday in federal court in Nashville to charges that he sold sensitive military information to the Chinese. Shultz was accused of taking at least 14 payments totaling $42,000. Schultz, 24, was arrested in March at Fort Campbell. The indictment alleged that Schultz — who had a top-secret security clearance — conspired with an individual identified only as “Conspirator A” to disclose various documents, photographs and other national defense materials, starting in June 2022.  Conspirator A was described as a foreign national purporting to reside in Hong Kong.  South China Morning Post  Stars and Stripes  Justice Department 

Venezuelan opposition chief Machado claims Maduro relies on military to stay in power.  Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado on Tuesday accused President Nicolas Maduro of having “entrenched himself” with the military to maintain power after the disputed election on July 28. The National Electoral Council (CNE), which declared Maduro the winner over opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, has still not released a detailed vote count, and its website has been down since the day after the election. Machado, who has released a vote count showing how Gonzalez received twice as many votes as Maduro, urged Venezuelans to protest on Saturday to demand that the authoritarian president “respect” the election results. She claimed that Maduro is relying solely on military support to stay in power. The military has historically backed Venezuela’s socialist government, and there has been no indication of any shift in their loyalty since the election. Machado is also being criminally investigated for allegedly inciting civil disobedience among the police and military. She emphasized the need to pressure Maduro into accepting a negotiated transition, while also dismissing the possibility of a power-sharing agreement. Reuters

Haiti's child death toll grows as international security mission lags behind. Save the Children reported that at least five Haitian children have been killed or injured every week thus far in 2024 due to escalating gang violence in the country. The non-governmental charity urged the U.N. and security forces to take stronger action to protect children from the violence, which has overtaken most of Port-au-Prince. Despite Haiti's 2022 request for international help to combat the gangs, progress has been slow, with only 400 Kenyan police deployed under a U.N.-approved mission, while promised resources from other countries have been delayed. According to U.N. data, 131 children were killed or injured in the first half of 2024, often from stray bullets or gang reprisals, though the real numbers may be higher. The violence has forced entire neighborhoods to flee, with nearly 6,000 displaced from one community, Ganthier, alone by August. Schools, set to reopen on October 1, have become makeshift refugee camps as the number of displaced people approaches 600,000. Reuters

EUROPE

Parallel conflicts in Europe, Middle East stretch Russia-Iran relations. As tensions soar in the Middle East and the battlefield conditions in Ukraine intensify, the growing ties between Russia and Iran, both of which have developed a close relationship due to their shared opposition to the U.S., are being tested. The two nations, which each have complementary military capabilities—Russia with its powerful air defenses and aircraft, and Iran with its advanced drones and missiles, now find themselves stretched thin, with little capacity to support each other. Iran is focused on retaliating against Israel for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, while Russia is dealing with a shocking Ukrainian offensive in its Kursk region and the challenges posed by Kyiv's new F-16 aircraft. These parallel situations limit Moscow and Tehran’s ability to provide each other with the military resources they need. Moscow's dependence on Iran for military support has increased since its setbacks in Ukraine, with Iran supplying drones and ammunition but withholding ballistic missiles that could significantly impact the war in Ukraine. The U.S. has repeatedly warned Tehran against providing these missiles, threatening to deliver severe consequences. Despite their cooperation, mutual suspicions and differing regional interests persist between Moscow and Tehran. While they share a common enemy in Washington, their alliance remains cautious, with both sides wary of fully committing to each other's causes. Historical mistrust, distinct ideologies, and the desire to maintain their own power limit the depth of their partnership, even as they continue to collaborate against the West. Wall Street Journal 

Putin the Resilient. Despite predictions of collapse, Vladimir Putin's regime has shown resilience and adaptability since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Russia has transformed into a personalist dictatorship, with power concentrated in Putin’s hands. Despite challenges such as the Wagner rebellion, military tensions, and internal reshuffles, the Kremlin has effectively maintained control, co-opted critics, and managed discontent among the elites in Russia. Although potential future challenges loom, including economic difficulties and succession issues, the regime has demonstrated a strong capacity to adapt and survive, underscoring the durability of Putin's authoritarian rule. Foreign Affairs 

Russian broker oversees sale of $87 million worth of frozen securities to foreign investors. A Russian broker, Investitsionnaya Palata, organized the sale of 8.1 billion roubles ($87.19 million) worth of frozen securities to foreign investors under an asset swap scheme aimed at freeing up blocked funds due to sanctions. The plan allows foreign investors to buy shares held by Russians in Western companies like Alphabet and Tesla. However, it remains unclear if foreign investors can access the securities, as additional sanctions complicate the process and Western cooperation is uncertain. Reuters

Austria to boost security following terrorist plot targeting Taylor Swift concert. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer on Tuesday declared plans to strengthen counter-terrorism measures in the nation following the cancellation of three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna due to the discovery of an ISIS-inspired terrorist scheme. The proposed measures include allowing intelligence agencies to surveil communications on messaging apps, which is currently illegal under Austria's strict data privacy laws. Nehammer also aims to expand conditions for pre-trial detention of minors, as two underage suspects were arrested in connection with the alleged plot to attack the concerts with blades and explosives. The suspects had reportedly pledged allegiance to terrorist networks like al-Qaida and IS. Additionally, Nehammer plans to increase investments in deradicalization programs and combat "political Islam." Deutsche Welle

Estonia’s defense minister casts doubt on Beijing’s assertion that pipeline damage was accidental. Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur has expressed skepticism about China's claim that one of its ships accidentally damaged the Balticconnector pipeline between Estonia and Finland in October 2023. The Chinese authorities blamed the incident on a severe storm, but Pevkur questioned how the ship's captain could have failed to notice that the anchor was dragging along the seabed for so long. The pipeline, along with two telecommunication cables, was damaged, leading to a joint criminal investigation by Estonia and Finland focused on the NewNew Polar Bear, a Chinese-owned container ship. While Beijing has asserted that the incident was accidental and is unlikely to pay for the €35 million repair costs, the investigation continues. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen confirmed cooperation with China, but details remain undisclosed due to the ongoing investigation. Estonia and Finland have requested legal aid from China to gather evidence, but no response has yet been received. The incident, which some officials believe was intentional, has raised concerns, particularly as the ship was later found in St Petersburg, Russia and then China. Despite earlier promises of cooperation from Beijing, there has been little progress in resolving the issue. South China Morning Post 

Russia sends 447 goats to North Korea.  Moscow has sent a gift to Pyongyang to commemorate the June summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un:  447 goats.   The goats, from Russia’s Leningrad region, are the first batch of farm animals that Russia promised North Korea. They symbolize Russia’s help to relieve North Korea’s food shortages, caused by government-related policies, worsening during the Covid-19 pandemic.  Politico

Germany ordered arrest of Ukrainian diver in Nord Stream investigation. Media reports released on Wednesday indicate that Germany has requested that Poland arrest a Ukrainian diving instructor for involvement in a group that allegedly sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines two years ago. Berlin reportedly handed Warsaw a European arrest warrant in June, though one media outlet suggested that the individual did not appear to be residing in Poland. The pipelines, which transported gas beneath the Baltic Sea, were ruptured by explosions seven months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. German investigators believe the Ukrainian diver was involved in planting the explosives. However, neither the German prosecutor general's office nor the Polish National Public Prosecutor's Office have commented on the reports. Two other Ukrainian diving instructors have also been identified in the investigation, but no arrest warrants have been issued for them yet. The blasts destroyed three out of the four Nord Stream pipelines, which had become a contentious issue due to Germany's reliance on Russian gas. Moscow accused the U.S., Britain, and Ukraine of sabotage, though these countries have denied involvement. Germany, Denmark, and Sweden conducted investigations, with Sweden confirming that the explosions were deliberate acts. The probes have failed to identify any suspects. In January of last year, Germany raided a ship potentially used to transport the explosives and suggested that trained divers may have attached devices to the pipelines at significant depths. Reuters

U.K. police arrested more than 1,000 following riots.  A British national policing body announced Tuesday that authorities have arrested more than 1,000 individuals after days of unrest and rioting that involved violence, arson, looting, and racist attacks targeting Muslims and migrants. The tumult began after the July 29 killing of three young girls in Southport, which was wrongly blamed on an Islamist migrant due to online misinformation. The riots spread across cities in England and Northern Ireland but have decreased following intensified efforts to identify and arrest those involved. Among the 1,024 arrests, 575 people have been charged, with many quickly jailed and given long sentences. The arrested includes those as young as 11-years-old. A 13-year-old girl pleaded guilty to violent disorder for attacking a hotel for asylum seekers. The last similar incident of widespread rioting in Britain occurred in 2011, which was quelled by swift judicial action after the deadly police shooting of a Black man. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. contemplates Iranian oil exports as Tehran threatens to escalate regional tensions.  The U.S. State Department is considering new measures to curb Iran’s rising oil exports amid concerns about Iran’s threats to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of a senior Hamas leader two weeks ago. The State Department acknowledges that while sanctions have hurt Iran, the regime still benefits from its oil sales. Washington plans to collaborate with partners to further reduce Iran's oil revenue as frictions in the Middle East mount. Iran has in recent months expanded its fuel exports to new buyers, including Oman and Bangladesh. The ongoing conflict in the region has caused oil prices to soar due to fears of broader disruptions. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are pressuring the Biden administration to enforce stricter sanctions on Iran, though this must be balanced against the potential impact on U.S. gasoline prices ahead of November’s election. Western powers, including the U.K., France, and Germany, have warned Iran against actions that could further destabilize the region. Iran's most recent missile attacks on Israel in April, following an incident in Damascus, have already thrust the region closer to potential all-out conflict. Politico 

Iran conducts military exercise in northern region. The Mehr news agency reported that Iran conducted a military drill in its northern Gilan province on the Caspian Sea on Tuesday evening, aiming to enhance the defensive readiness of its naval forces. The exercise, Iran's second in three days, comes as the region braces for potential Iranian retaliation against Israel, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Reuters 

Officials say projectiles did not strike U.S. base in Syria’s Deir al-Zor. Two American officials on Tuesday confirmed that the projectiles launched towards a U.S. airbase in the Syrian province Deir al-Zor province did not actually strike the facility. The attack, reportedly conducted by Iran-backed militia, involved six shells that landed near the base. The U.S.-led coalition responded with artillery fire, and no injuries were reported from the incident, though initial reports are subject to change.  Following the assault, Lebanese media said American warplanes were seen flying over the area. Despite the base being named "Conoco," ConocoPhillips clarified that it had divested its assets in Syria in the early 2000s. Separately, the Pentagon reported that eight U.S. service members were injured in a drone attack on a base in Syria last week. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese, Russian militaries are training together in global arenas, from Alaska to Taiwan. The New York Times is out with a piece detailing how China and Russia have been engaging in efforts to intensify their military cooperation, reflecting their informal alliance against the West amid increasing global strain. Just last month, they conducted joint military exercises near Alaska. The two superpowers have held drills recently in the South China Sea, and around Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, areas with significant U.S. strategic interests. Beijing, embittered by U.S. sanctions and its mounting security alliances in Asia, is increasingly using its military to signal its discontent, amplifying its message through partnership with Russia. The joint exercises raise concerns in Washington about the potential combined threat of these two nuclear-armed states, especially as American war experts have traditionally focused on them individually. There are concerns, for example, that Russia might assist China in a conflict, such as by creating a second front to divert U.S. resources. China’s reliance on Russia is also crucial for its geopolitical strategy, particularly in countering the U.S. and sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine through economic and technological support. The alliance offers Beijing strategic advantages, such as using Russia's land border for supplies if the U.S. imposes a sea blockade. The recent joint bomber patrol near Alaska, a significant precedent, highlighted the two nations’ growing military interoperability, and the frequency and scale of such exercises are expected to increase. New York Times

China’s foreign minister to visit Myanmar amid renewed violence between junta troops, insurgents. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was set to visit Myanmar on Wednesday, following fierce fighting and a stunning upset by ethnic minority rebel groups against the ruling junta, which has signaled a “fundamental change” in the conflict. This visit is part of Beijing's mounting efforts to mediate between Myanmar's regime and the rebel groups, with which China also maintains ties. Wang's visit, the highest-level Chinese visit since last year, follows other diplomatic efforts by China, including a recent visit by a special envoy and the arrival of a new ambassador. China has expressed support for Myanmar's efforts to maintain stability while adhering to its principle of non-interference. The visit comes after a Chinese-brokered ceasefire collapsed in June, leading to significant changes on the ground, including the capture of a key town by rebel forces linked to the Han Chinese in Myanmar. China's relationship with Myanmar's military has strengthened over the past year, although Beijing has not officially recognized the junta and remains concerned about the potential spillover of conflict into Chinese territory. There is increasing scrutiny of the Asian giant's ties with the rebel groups, with some in Myanmar suspecting Chinese support for the rebels. Wang's visit is considered to be an attempt to reassure the Myanmar military, build trust, and address suspicions about China's role in the ongoing conflict. South China Morning Post

Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida reveals intention to resign as scandals become too damaging. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday announced plans to step aside from his role in September, ending his three-year term due to declining public trust following political scandals and rising discontent over the economy. His decision not to seek re-election as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) opens the door for a new chief to address challenges like rising living costs and geopolitical tensions. His departure raises concerns about potential shifts in Japan's fiscal and monetary policies, especially as inflation impacts the economy. Kishida's successor will need to unite the LDP and manage complex issues, including Japan's defense strategy and its relationships with the U.S. and South Korea. Reuters CNN BBC

The Taliban celebrate 3 years of ruling Afghanistan; what has happened since their return?  At the same time as the Taliban celebrated the third anniversary of their return to power in Afghanistan, The Associated Press published a report describing the group’s takeover, and how it has transformed the country in three years. While members of the Taliban cabinet gathered at a former U.S. air base on Wednesday to give speeches extolling achievements, the people continue to struggle under mounting hardships and strict interpretations of Islamic law. Despite lacking international recognition, the Taliban have solidified their rule, engaging in high-level meetings with regional powers like China and Russia and excluding Afghan women and civil society from international discussions. While there is no significant domestic or international challenge to their rule, Afghanistan faces severe economic challenges, relying heavily on foreign aid. The Taliban have centralized power, but their governance lacks the trust and support of Afghan citizens. The economy remains weak, with foreign aid making up a significant portion of the GDP, and the Taliban's taxation efforts insufficient to meet the country's needs. Restrictions on female education and employment, along with anti-narcotics policies, have further harmed the economy. Although the Taliban emphasize their effectiveness as a government, the country remains unsafe, particularly for women and minorities, with ongoing violence and strict enforcement of repressive decrees. Afghanistan's future stability and security remain uncertain. Associated Press France 24 Associated Press Japan Times 

More than a dozen jihadist groups have established or reconstituted safe havens in Afghanistan since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. Does the threat they pose remain limited to Afghanistan and its neighbors, or does it expand to Europe and the West?

Read Three Years After Taliban Return, Terrorists Find Safe Haven in Afghanistan exclusively in The Cipher Brief

AFRICA

Death threatens tens of thousands in Sudan as IOM urges global response, aid. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) on Tuesday called for increased global donations to address the severe displacement crisis in Sudan, warning that inaction could lead to tens of thousands of preventable deaths. The IOM has only received 21% of the necessary funding to provide essential aid to those affected by the conflict, which has displaced one in five Sudanese, with 10.7 million people internally displaced and 2.3 million fleeing the country. The ongoing conflict has resulted in widespread ethnic violence and famine-like conditions, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Reuters IOM 

Somalia-Ethiopia discussions in Ankara close with no agreement, though some progress made. A second round of talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, mediated by Turkey, over a contentious port deal signed by Ethiopia with the breakaway Somaliland region ended on Tuesday without a final agreement, though officials said some progress was made. The talks, which were held in Ankara, aimed to mend the strained relations between the two East African countries, which deteriorated after Addis Ababa agreed to lease a portion of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for recognizing its independence. Mogadishu, which views the deal as illegal, retaliated by expelling the Ethiopian ambassador and threatening to expel Ethiopian troops stationed in the country. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who mediated between the Ethiopian and Somali foreign ministers, noted that more issues were discussed compared to the first round of talks, with some convergence on key principles. A third round is scheduled for September 17. Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi Ahmed and Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie both expressed optimism about resolving their differences and restoring normal relations. Ankara, which has close ties with both countries, began mediating after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed requested intervention during a visit to Ankara in May. Reuters Associated Press 

CYBER & TECH

Huawei preparing new chip to rival Nvidia, bypassing U.S. restrictions. Chinese tech giant Huawei is prepping the launch of a new AI-focused chip, the Ascend 910C, which challenges U.S. sanctions by providing a Chinese alternative to Nvidia’s advanced chips. This new chip is being tested by major Chinese internet and telecom companies and is reported to be comparable to Nvidia’s H100, which is not available in China due to export controls. Huawei’s continued progress in chip development showcases its ability to overcome Washington’s restrictions and reduce dependence on American technology, supported by substantial state funding. However, Huawei, which is viewed in the U.S. as a threat to national security, faces both production delays and potential further sanctions that could impact its access to essential components. Chinese companies like ByteDance, Baidu, and China Mobile are in early discussions to purchase the 910C, with potential orders reaching $2 billion. Shipments could begin as early as October, though final details may change. The U.S. has restricted Nvidia from selling its most advanced chips to Beijing, leading the California-based company to offer less powerful alternatives, such as the H20. Despite initial skepticism, Chinese customers have increased orders for the H20. If Huawei can successfully produce the 910C and if Nvidia remains restricted, Huawei could quickly gain market share in China. Industry estimates suggest the company might produce over a million 910C chips next year if additional U.S. restrictions are not imposed. Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to work on another China-oriented chip, the B20. Wall Street Journal 

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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