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Wednesday, April 5, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Speaker McCarthy to Meet Taiwanese President, Despite Threats from China. U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday during her “transit” visit to Los Angeles, despite threats of retaliation from China. The historic meeting will cap Tsai’s week-long tour throughout the US and Central America. It will be her most top-level U.S. meeting during her visit and is expected to include other lawmakers, both Democrat and Republican. Beijing released a statement condemning the meeting, saying it violated the one-China principle, and undermines China’s sovereignty. Read more about China’s response to the meeting in the Asia section below, as well as new analysis from The Cipher Brief about how a Chinese attack on Taiwan may affect the U.S.  The Cipher Brief Associated Press France24 Reuters

Biden Meets with S&T Council on AI ‘Risks and Opportunities.’  President Biden addressed the artificial intelligence boom on Tuesday by calling on technology companies to ensure their products are safe before releasing them to the public, and reiterating his call for Congress to pass legislation to curtail data collection by technology companies and enhance protections for children. According to experts, Biden is “setting the stage” for a national dialogue on the topic of AI, particularly amid the escalating innovation race around the technology from Google, OpenAI, and others. Last year, the administration unveiled a blueprint for an AI “Bill of Rights” which, while it did not lay out specific actions, was meant to be a call to action for the U.S. government to safeguard civil and digital rights amid AI development. Associated Press Deutsche Welle

Intel Officials Watching for Signs from Adversaries Trying to Exploit Trump Indictment to Widen US Divide.  U.S. intelligence officials say they are closely watching if adversaries like Russia and China are conducting influence operations to amplify political divisions amongst Americans over the indictment of former President Donald Trump.  The officials say they have not seen a significant uptick in such activity beyond what is standard, but maintain they are still on the alert, especially for disinformation campaigns aimed at provoking unrest and protests.  The CIA, FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to formally comment on the matter.  NBC News

Former Top US Diplomat Visits Kyiv, Says Not Helping Ukraine Costs More.  Former U.S. Secretary of State and former CIA Director Mike Pompeo met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Monday, and later said that support for Ukraine will cost less in the long-run.  He also added that he supports providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Observers note that if Pompeo announces a presidential run, his support for maintaining and increasing military aid to Ukraine will run counter to other likely conservative candidates’ more skeptical positions.  Politico Reuters Kyiv Post

Clinton Regrets Convincing Ukraine to Give Up Nuclear Weapons.  Former US president Bill Clinton said he regretted convincing Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994.  His comments refer to his role in the so-called Budapest Memorandum, which removed or destroyed thousands of nuclear weapons left in Ukraine following the collapse of the Soviet Union. After a U.S., U.K., and Russian guarantee of Ukraine's security, Kyiv made the decision to completely denuclearize. Clinton suggested that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Kyiv still had its nuclear deterrent.  CNN Newsweek RTE

Mexican President Asks Beijing for Help In Controlling Its Drug Wars Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador revealed Tuesday that he had written a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping, asking him for help controlling shipments of fentanyl into the country. The letter, dated March 22, also calls out criticism from the US after comments made that Mexico was not doing enough to address the synthetic opioid, which is a major source of cartel revenue. At a press conference, Lopez Obrador revealed that the idea to ask help from China came after a visit by US lawmakers, in which they suggested it. China has not commented on the letter. U.S. officials say Mexican Cartels mass-produce fentanyl, which can be up to 50 times stronger than heroin, using chemicals sourced largely from China. Lopez Obrador, however, says Mexico does not produce fentanyl, and that the cartels buy it directly from Asia.  Associated Press Reuters

Congress Asks for DHS Briefings on Espionage Threat from Chinese Port Cranes.  Top lawmakers who oversee the Department of Homeland Security want to hold hearings and obtain access to classified and unclassified government documents that expose potential security vulnerabilities posed by dozens of Chinese-made cranes at American ports across the country. An estimated 80% of American port cranes use Chinese software produced by a Chinese company; a fact that House Committee on Homeland Security Chairman Mark E. Green described as “extremely worrisome.” Green and other top lawmakers this week expressed that they want to hold hearings about potential security vulnerabilities posed by those cranes. U.S. intelligence officials’ annual threat assessment noted that China “represents the broadest, most active, and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. government and private-sector networks.” In that report, officials note that “if Beijing feared that a major conflict with the United States were imminent, it almost certainly would consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations against U.S. homeland critical infrastructure…” Wall Street Journal

U.S. Promises Ukraine $2.6 Billion Weapons Package. The US announced on Tuesday a new package of $2.6 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine. The newest package includes air defense systems and radars, NASAMS munitions, anti-tank rockets, and fuel trucks. Around $2.1 billion of the package will come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding, which allows for the government to purchase from industry instead of US weapons supplies. The remaining $500 million comes from the Presidential Drawdown Authority funds, which pulls from U.S. stockpiles.  Following the announcement, the Russian Embassy in Washington accused the U.S. of trying to drag out the conflict for as long as possible.  Associated Press New York Times Reuters US Department of Defense

Western Europe

NATO Foreign Ministers Meet as Finland Joins Alliance.  NATO foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to close a two-day summit coinciding with the 74th anniversary of the founding of the alliance.  The substantive part of the summit concluded on Tuesday after Finland became the alliance’s 31st member..  Officials at the summit said Finland’s accession to NATO was a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the alliance should thank Russian President Vladimir Putin for pushing the change.  NATO Secretary-General added that NATO’s expansion will not stop with Finland, saying that Sweden will “become a full fledged member of the alliance.” That development is pending Turkey’s approval.  CNN Deutsche Welle Kyiv Independent 

Russia Threatens Countermeasures Over Finland’s Accession into NATO. Following Finland’s historic accession into NATO, ending 70 years of military non-alignment and bolstering the security bloc’s eastern flank, the Kremlin is threatening countermeasures. In a statement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that this move threatens Russia’s security and that Finland joining NATO aggravates the current situation, and will force Moscow to take counter-measures to ensure the country’s security, tactically and strategically. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that NATO troops will only be placed in Finland per the country’s request. CNN Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelenskiy Visiting Warsaw Amid Agricultural Product Row.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw.  The two will reportedly discuss Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and military needs.  The trip marks Zelenskiy’s first formal visit to Poland since the start of Russia’s invasion.  Poland has been one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies, taking in more Ukrainian refugees displaced by the war than any other country and consistently calling for escalations in Western military support for Ukraine.  Despite these strong relations, Zelenskiy’s visit was not without controversy.  Ahead of his arrival, Poland’s agriculture minister quit over the Polish government’s failure to stop the deluge of Ukrainian agricultural products flooding into Poland, which have caused Polish produce prices to plummet.  The minister said he resigned to protest the European Commission’s refusal to reimpose tariffs and duties on Ukrainian agricultural imports, which would help stabilize prices to support Polish farmers.  The minister’s departure is unlikely to stem ongoing farmers’ protests over the matter, which could endanger the current Polish government’s chances in parliamentary elections in the fall.  CNN Politico

Russian Advance in Bakhmut Measured in ‘Meters’ Despite Wagner Head’s Claim of Victory.  Western officials on Wednesday told CNN that Russia has made “very slow progress” in Bakhmut over the last six months despite throwing a massive amount of equipment and men at the city.  Their comments came after the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, Yevegeny Prigozhin, said his mercenaries captured Bakhmut “in legal terms,” which the officials said was a “pretty desperate” attempt to reject the reality that Ukraine still holds a significant part of the city.  The Western officials added that Ukraine has fared better in Bakhmut, as it is still able to rotate units out of the city for recovery and continues to be resupplied by Western partners.  CNN

Russian Military Struggles as Ukraine Grows Bolder.  The Western officials who spoke to CNN said that more widely, Russia is struggling to generate “trained military manpower.”  They noted that Moscow has acknowledged it needs 400,00 more troops to not only maintain its invasion of Ukraine, but also address the new northern border with NATO it has due to Finland’s accession into the alliance.  Given all these military demands, the officials said Russia is not only having to widen the age range and duration for conscription, but also failing to find enough time to adequately train new recruits.  In contrast, the officials say that Ukraine seems to be doing far better.  They said Ukraine is beginning to launch deep strikes into Russian territory, including in occupied areas of southern Ukraine.  They also add that Kyiv is stockpiling munitions for an expected counteroffensive.  CNN

US Journalist Jailed in Russia Meets with Lawyers, Reportedly in Good Health. Detained U.S. reporter Evan Gershkovich met with his lawyers in Russia on Monday, and is reportedly in good health, according to a statement issued by the Wall Street Journal. The statement called his imprisonment an attack on a free press and wholly unjustified. U.S. Embassy representatives in Moscow have yet to be granted consular access to Mr. Gershkovich, according to the Journal. The Biden administration is reportedly preparing to officially declare Mr. Gershkovich as “wrongfully detained” in Russia, which will trigger new U.S. government resources to work towards his release. Associated Press CNN Reuters

Former Officer in Putin’s Secretive Personal Security Team Defects. Gleb Karakulov, a former member of Vladimir Putin’s elite personnel security service, joins the list of the few Russians with rank to have fled Russia and reveal details. According to an interview conducted by the London-based group The Dossier Center, Karakulov told interviewers that Putin has “become a war criminal,” and that is is time to end the war. Karakulov, who was responsible for setting up secure communications for the president and prime minister wherever they traveled, fled to Turkey with his wife and daughter back in October. Karakulov also spoke about what he himself and others have described as Putin’s increased paranoia, and how it has deepened since his invasion of Ukraine last February. Karakulov and his family have gone underground. Associated Press

Russian Defense Minister Says Belarus Aircrafts Now Capable of Carrying Out Nuclear Strikes. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced following NATOs recent expansion, that Belarusian aircrafts have been upgraded, and now have the capability to carry out nuclear strikes. He also said that the Iskander-M operational tactical missile system was given to the Belarus military, and that Belarusian forces are being trained on the systems in Russia. CNN

Asia

China Launches Naval Drills Ahead of Tsai-McCarthy Meeting.  The Fujian Maritime Safety Administration announced Tuesday that a joint cruise and patrol operation has begun in the northern and central parts of the Taiwan Strait.  The announcement came days after China’s People’s Liberation Army on Sunday said it deployed two destroyers and a frigate to the East China Sea for live fire drills.  The naval exercises come ahead of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles on Wednesday.  Beijing warned it would take retaliatory action over the meeting, and the naval drills — which bear similarities to Chinese war games launched last year in protest to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s meeting with Tsai in Taipei — may be the start of just that.  South China Morning Post

China Downplays Significance of Spy Balloon Incident. China’s foreign ministry stressed on Tuesday that the unmanned airship that flew over the U.S. last month was a random, anomalous incident.  Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that Beijing “rejects distortion and hyping up” of the situation. This comment comes in the wake of the Pentagon’s inability to confirm if the surveillance balloon collected data before being shot down by the Air Force. Reuters

UN Urges Afghanistan Based Staff to Stay Home as Taliban Hints at UN Female Ban. The United Nations has told 3,300 staff members, male and female, to not report to work for the next 48 hours following hints from the Taliban that they would ban Afghan women from working for the organization. According to UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric, UN officials had received word of an order from Afghanistan authorities banning female staff members from working, and that they are meeting with Afghan foreign ministry officials on Wednesday for clarifications.  Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera  

China Stymies Mergers Involving U.S. Companies As Technology War Intensifies. Chinese regulators have reportedly slowed down their merger reviews of several proposed acquisitions by U.S. companies, including Intel Corp’s takeover of Israel-based Tower Semiconductor Ltd and chipmaker MaxLinear Inc’s purchase of Taiwan’s Silicon Motion Technology, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation. China’s antitrust regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), has asked companies to make products they sell in other countries available in China as preconditions for approving some of the transactions, almost certainly to counter the U.S.’ increased export controls targeting China. The U.S. has enacted legislation restricting American companies’ ability to sell to China and produce certain goods. Beijing has increasingly leveraged the merger review process and antitrust rules to advance its economic and political goals in recent years, according to experts, as part of China’s “expanding toolbox of economic coercion”. Chinese officials reportedly see the merger reviews as a subtle and low-cost way to pressure both foreign companies and their governments. Wall Street Journal

Japan to Finance Military Projects of Friendly Nations. Japan announced on Wednesday that it intends to provide financial assistance to countries wishing to bolster their national defense systems. The program, which is called Japan’s Overseas Security Assistance, is part of Japan’s aim to “deepen security cooperation” with other countries, as well as create a good security environment for Japan according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This announcement comes as Japan recently began its largest military buildup since World War II. Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Forces Clash with Worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque, Raising Tensions During Religious Holidays. Israeli forces stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem’s Old City early Wednesday, firing stun grenades, while Palestinians responded by hurling stones and firecrackers. The clashes raised tensions during the holiday month of Ramadan and ahead of the Passover holiday later that evening; Palestinian militants in Gaza fired rockets on southern Israel, which Israeli forces responded to with repeated airstrikes. The mosque, which both Jews and Muslims claim as their own, has been a site of increasing violence in recent years; al-Aqsa is the third holiest site in Islam and stands in what Jews know as the Temple Mount, the holiest site in Judaism. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that 50 people were injured in the clashes. Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters

Taliban Kills 6 ISIL Members in Afghanistan. A Taliban spokesperson announced on Tuesday that Taliban forces had killed six members of ISIL in the northern Afghan province of Balkh during an overnight raid. This comes as the Taliban has begun to crackdown on the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, a regional affiliate of ISIL that has been linked to several deadly attacks in recent months. According to a spokesperson for the police chief in Balkh, the operation targeted a hideout in the Nahri Shahi district. Al Jazeera

Sub Saharan Africa

Armed Gangs Abduct Students in Nigeria. Gunmen in northern Nigeria’s Kaduna State kidnapped around 10 students from a secondary school on Monday, officials announced Tuesday. Commissioner for internal security, Samuel Aruwan, claimed the exact location of the abduction is unknown. Abductions in Nigeria have increased in recent years, and roaming armed gangs of young men often attack isolated communities, holding victims in forests until ransoms are paid. The U.N. reports that in 2020 and 2021 more than 1,000 students were kidnapped, and the number has risen steadily since the 2014 kidnapping of 200 schoolgirls in Borno state by Islamic extremists. Nigerian forces, though able to attack some “bandit” retreats and reduce the number of abductions last year, are occupied in the struggle against Islamic insurrections in the north.  Associated Press Reuters

Nigerian Senate Accepts Chinese Bank for Railway Investments. On Tuesday, Nigeria’s senate approved China Development Bank as a new financier for the Kaduna-to-Kano rail project, following the pullout of China’s Exim Bank in 2020. The lower house of parliament has also approved of the deal. The deal will grant a 15-year loan to the project worth $973 million at an interest rate of 2.7%. The deal is part of President Muhammadu Buhari’s pledge to upgrade much of Nigeria’s transportation networks and infrastructure, and is one of several billion dollar project loans from China and other lenders.  Reuters

Cyber & Tech

Former NATO Chief Assails West’s 'Cyber Appeasement' of Russia.  Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) criticized the West for an insufficient response to Russia’s cyber attacks in recent years in a Bloomberg Op-Ed on Monday. Per Stavridis, cyber attacks are the lynchpin for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hybrid warfare playbook, and Western allies are allowing Russia to act with impunity in the domain. Stavridis highlighted three explanations, including the West’s diplomatic corps’ lack of technical prowess, a hesitancy to risk further escalation, and a false sense of security in Western cyber capabilities as it relates to nation-states like Russia.  Bloomberg Washington Post

Biden Administration Top Cybersecurity Team Undercut by Internal Rivalries. The resignation of the first U.S. National Cyber Director, Chris Inglis, earlier this year was reportedly due to clashes with Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger, according to a Bloomberg report attributed to unnamed sources. The Biden administration has yet to nominate a successor to Inglis. According to Bloomberg, observers were routinely concerned about competing remits between the two officials; conditions were reportedly ripe for a turf war from the start. In a statement, Neuberger said she and her staff did not undermine Inglis or his team, and described Inglis’ office as being “frequently unrealistic about how things are done at the White House.” Still, tensions between the two organizations threaten to undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to roll out its new cyber strategy, and comes as the administration is under increasing pressure to protect critical sectors of the economy from Russia and China. The Office of the National Cyber Director was created by Congress in 2021 and is responsible for crafting and implementing the National Cyber Strategy under NSC oversight. Experts expect friction with the NSC to continue regardless of who becomes the next Cyber Director. Bloomberg 

UK National Cyber Force Details Offensive, Defensive Ops in Public Release. In a rare statement on its offensive cyber operations, the GCHQ spy agency revealed that British government hackers have launched counter offensives against militants and disinformation campaigns attempting to interfere in elections.  The reveal came in the UK’s National Cyber Force (NCF), a covert unit within GCHQ, release of a 28-page document outlining the principles on which it operates on Tuesday. GCHQ also for the first time disclosed the head of the unit, James Babbage, an intelligence officer who has worked for 30 years at GCHQ, including tours at the Ministry of Defense and as a liaison officer in the U.S. The NCF, which is based on the model created by US Cyber Command, is a collaboration between GCHQ, the UK Ministry of Defense, the UK’s foreign security service MI6, and the Defense, Science, and Technology Laboratory. The unit’s capabilities “range from jamming an enemy’s air defenses to protect British forces during a mission, or monitoring or shutting down the communication networks of terrorist groups such as ISIS”, which GCHQ publicly acknowledged doing in 2018. Financial Times UK National Cyber Force Reuters

Bill Gates: Pausing AI won't 'Solve the Challenges Ahead.' On Tuesday, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told Reuters that it would be better to focus on how best to leverage recent developments in artificial intelligence, as calls to pause development will not “solve the challenges ahead”. His public remarks come after an open letter published last week and signed by Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, and others said the potential risks and benefits to society must be assessed. Gates has been a bullish supporter of AI, describing it as a revolution akin to the Internet or mobile phones, and has said that he believes AI should be used to help reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Reuters

Twitter Recommendation Algorithm Opens Platform to Manipulation, Bot Attacks. Late last week, Twitter released a portion of its source code on GitHub as part of Elon Musk’s pledge to make it “open source”, including the app’s recommendation algorithm. Researchers have since evaluated the code and found that attackers could easily manipulate the software to target specific accounts on the platform. MITRE, a federally-funded R&D center, has since assigned a “common vulnerabilities and exposure” (CVE) designation to portions of the code. The CVE notes that Twitter’s current recommendation algorithm allows attackers to cause a denial of service by arranging for multiple Twitter accounts to take coordinated action and send negative signals about a targeted account, such as unfollowing, muting, blocking, and reporting. CyberScoop

Ukraine Invasion Triggers Decline of Russia’s Tech Sector The invasion of Ukraine has reportedly depleted Russia’s already struggling tech of the manpower and equipment it needs to stay competitive. Roughly 100,000 IT specialists left Russia in 2022, or some 10% of the tech workforce, according to government data. That figure is considered an underestimate. Amid sweeping sanctions, more than 1,000 foreign firms have also restricted their operations in the country. The Russia search engine and web portal, Yandex, considered one of country’s biggest tech success stories, has also been begun selling off portions of its business to a competitor controlled by state-owned companies. MIT Technology Review

Treasury IG Concludes Sensitive IRS System Falls Short of Cloud Security Requirements.  A new report from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Inspector General has found that the IRS’s Enterprise Case Management (ECM) system did not meet all agency cybersecurity requirements for cloud operations.  The ECM system is a hybrid cloud system that processes and stores sensitive IRS information.  The IG audit of the system found it did not have necessary malicious code protections and has ineffective user account controls and monitoring.  The IG added that the IRS failed to address vulnerabilities in the ECM system in a timely manner.  The IG is recommending the IRS update and test the ECM system to address these findings and ensure the system is up to standard.  NextGov

Russia Plans Aerospace R&D Campus on Chinese Island Hosting Spaceport.  The National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI), one of Russia’s top technical universities, is building a new campus in the southern Chinese island of Hainan.  Chinese media reports that the new campus will specialize in aviation and aerospace research and is expected to be completed in June 2025.  The announcement about the MBEI campus follows similar reports that Germany’s Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences (FH Bielefeld) is also building a business and engineering campus on Hainan.  The construction of new international schools is a common phenomenon in Hainan, which is a free-trade port and popular resort island and also hosts a spaceport.  South China Morning Post

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