Report for Wednesday, April 10, 2024

TOP STORIES

Hamas reviewing ceasefire plan presented by CIA Director Burns

US sends seized Iranian-made weapons, equipment for air defense upgrades to Ukraine

Japanese PM Kishida in Washington

China's Xi says nobody can stop 'family reunion' with Taiwan

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE – Russia Prepares for New Phase of War – Against Ukraine and the West.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – A Former Senior CIA Officer’s Notebook on Ukraine.

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION – This is What Happens When the Basic Rules of War Are Ignored.

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Hamas reviewing cease-fire plan put forward by CIA director Burns.  Hamas said Tuesday it is reviewing the latest cease-fire proposal presented by mediators. "The movement (Hamas) is interested in reaching an agreement that puts an end to the aggression on our people,” the Hamas statement said. “Despite that, the Israeli position remains intransigent and it didn't meet any of the demands of our people and our resistance," Hamas said following the latest ceasefire proposal.  Despite those negatives, Hamas said it would study the proposal further.  According to the Wall Street Journal, CIA Director William Burns presented the plan Sunday to representatives of Israel and Hamas and mediators from Qatar and Egypt, all gathered in Cairo.  It called for a six-week cease-fire in Gaza, during which Hamas would release 40 of 100-plus hostages, in exchange for 900 Palestinian prisoners, including 100 serving long sentences on terrorism-related charges.  Hamas wants an end to the Israeli military offensive, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and to allow displaced people to return to their homes in Gaza. Israel is not willing to agree to a permanent cease-fire, nor will it agree to withdraw from Gaza while Hamas still stands.  Israel’s foreign minister Israel Katz said Tuesday that the talks had reached a “critical point.” “If matters work out, a large number of hostages will return home and, in stages, everyone,” Katz said.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, briefing reporters at the White House Tuesday, said, “We have seen Israel take some steps forward in terms of what they’re putting on the table. And of course, we’ve seen the public statements from Hamas that have been, shall we say, less than encouraging.”  He said he had discussed the current hostage-release proposal with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and had urged him to get a response from Hamas.  Washington Post Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Blinken says U.S. and Israeli officials to talk next week on Rafah ground operation.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday said he expects talks between Israeli and U.S. officials to take place next week on whether Israel will go forward with its planned Israeli military operation in Rafah. The Biden administration strongly opposes the operation as likely to kill too many civilians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel will complete the elimination of Hamas' brigades, including in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.  "There is no force in the world that will stop us,” Netanyahu said. “There are many forces that are trying to do so, but it will not help, since this enemy, after what it did, will never do it again." Reuters  Reuters Reuters Jerusalem Post Associated Press 

Biden calls Netanyahu’s approach to Hamas war a ‘mistake.’  In an interview with the Spanish language network Univision broadcast Tuesday, President Joe Biden had harsh words for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  “I think what he’s doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach,” Biden said.  In the interview, taped shortly after Israel’s lethal drone strikes that killed seven World Central Kitchen relief workers, Biden called the strikes “outrageous.”  “So what I’m calling for is for the Israelis to just call for a cease-fire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, total access to all food and medicine going into the country,” Biden told Univision. “There’s no excuse to not provide for the medical and the food needs of those people. It should be done now.”  CNN The Hill Reuters

Austin denies genocide in Gaza but says Israel must do more to protect innocent people.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, testifying Tuesday at the Senate Armed Services Committee, said, “We don’t have any evidence of genocide being [committed]” by Israel in Gaza.”  Austin added, “I really do believe … that if they want to create a lasting effect in terms of stability, then I think that something needs to help the Palestinian people.”   “We are doing everything we can to encourage the Israelis to open more land routes [for aid] and to separate the Palestinian people from Hamas,” Austin added. “Failure to do so will create more terrorists.”  Stars and Stripes Politico The Hill Reuters 

Cameron says U.K. will not stop arms sales to Israel.  Last week 600 British lawyers and three former senior UK judges called for a halt in arms sales to Israel, on grounds it would make Britain complicit in genocide in Gaza.  Foreign Minister David Cameron said legal advice said Britain could continue arms sales.  But he also said the U.K. government had "grave concerns around the humanitarian access issue in Gaza.”  Reuters 

Turkey restricts exports to Israel to protest Israel’s conduct in Gaza.  Israel denied a Turkish government request to airdrop humanitarian aid to Gaza.  Turkey’s Trade Ministry retaliated with restrictions covering dozens of exports — including aluminum, steel products, cement and jet fuel. “This decision will remain in place until Israel declares a cease-fire in Gaza and allows the flow of a sufficient amount of uninterrupted aid to the Gaza Strip,” the ministry said in a statement.   New York Times Bloomberg Associated Press  

Iran smuggles arms to West Bank.  Iran is operating a clandestine smuggling route across the Middle East, the New York Times reported Tuesday.  The route uses intelligence operatives, militants, and criminal gangs to deliver weapons to Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, officials from the U.S., Israel and Iran told the New York Times. The goal, as described by three Iranian officials, is to foment unrest against Israel by flooding the enclave with as many weapons as it can.  New York Times 

Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz.  The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard's navy said Tuesday that Tehran viewed Israel's presence in the United Arab Emirates as a threat by Tehran.  He also said that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if deemed necessary.   Reuters

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION – This is What Happens When the Basic Rules of War Are Ignored.

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE – Russia Prepares for New Phase of War – Against Ukraine and the West.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – A Former Senior CIA Officer’s Notebook on Ukraine.

US sends Ukraine seized Iranian-made weapons. The Pentagon has provided Ukraine with thousands of Iranian-made weapons previously intended for Houthi militants in Yemen. This support includes 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s, and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition, seized from vessels linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This move is part of the U.S.'s efforts to maintain military aid to Ukraine, despite delays in a larger aid package from the Republican-led House. Further U.S. military aid is considered critical for Ukraine's continued resistance to Russia’s invasion. Washington Post US CENTCOM X

U.S. to sell Ukraine $138 million in HAWK air defense upgrades.  The U.S. State Department announced Tuesday that it will sell up to $138 million worth of equipment to Ukraine for repairs and upgrades to its HAWK air defense systems. The State Department said the sale will help Ukraine defend against Russian drone and missile attacks. The U.S. sent medium-range HAWK interceptor missiles to Ukraine in 2022 to upgrade shoulder-launched Stinger air defense missile systems.  The U.S. has since sent other air defense systems, including Patriots. An estimated five U.S. government employees and 15 contractor representatives will temporarily travel to Europe to support training and sustainment under the sale.  The funding for the sale comes from a $300 million grant in foreign military financing from the recent defense spending bill, covering costs for communications integration, refurbishment, missile recertification, and additional support materials.  Reuters The Hill Associated Press  

Ukraine struck Russian aviation factory in Voronezh region, Ukrainian spy source says, Ukraine's military intelligence agency successfully targeted a key Russian aviation production facility in the Voronezh region, specifically the 711th aviation repair plant in Borisoglebsk, according to Reuters citing a Ukrainian intelligence source.  Russia reported downing two drones over the area, but the extent of the damage to the facility remains unspecified. Verified CCTV footage showed an explosion at the site, aligning with Ukraine's strategy of targeting military and infrastructure sites inside Russia that are aiding Moscow's war efforts.  Reuters

U.S. slams strikes on Russia oil refineries as risk to oil markets. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries could destabilize global energy markets. The strikes are part of a bid to reduce fuel supplies to the Russian military, as well as to cut revenues from exports that Moscow uses to fund the war. “Those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday. “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.” Ukraine has used drones to hit more than a dozen Russian oil refineries since early January, including some of the biggest plants in the country.  Bloomberg

Russian pro-war channels allege capture of Pervomaiske village, publish videos. Pro-Russian Telegram channels claim Russian forces have taken Pervomaiske, a village near Avdiivka, on Tuesday.  A video is circulating on Telegram showing a Russian flag hoisted on village ruins. Despite the posts, both Ukraine's Armed Forces and Russia's Defense Ministry remain silent on the matter.  If confirmed, the capture of Pervomaiske, after Avdiivka on Feb. 17, indicates Russia's ongoing territorial gains amid a severe ammunition shortage in Ukraine and delayed U.S. aid.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine denies Russia gained foothold in Robotyne.  Ukraine refuted claims that Russian forces established a presence in Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.  Despite recent hostilities, the village remains under Ukrainian control, officials said Wednesday.  Earlier reports suggested Russian troops had penetrated Robotyne, but Kyiv maintains that Ukrainian forces, particularly the 65th Mechanized Brigade, successfully repelled these attempts using artillery, drones, and mortars. Robotyne, a strategic location near the frontline, has been a focal point of intensified Russian offensive efforts.  The town was retaken by Ukraine in August after weeks of combat to liberate it from Russian control.  Kyiv Independent

Defense committee concludes its review of the mobilization bill.  The Ukrainian parliament's National Security and Defense Committee finished reviewing all the amendments to a mobilization bill and removed provisions on demobilization and rotation of military personnel, lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko said on Tuesday, according to the Kyiv Independent. Set for a vote on Wednesday, the legislation aims to enhance mobilization processes in 2024 by updating conscription laws.  Notable changes include lowering the compulsory military service age from 27 to 25 and establishing an online conscript register.  Additionally, the "partially eligible" medical status, permitting exemptions from certain military duties, has been eliminated, simplifying conscript eligibility to just two categories: "eligible" and "non-eligible." Kyiv Independent

Zelensky warns of Russian penetration into U.S. politics.  In an interview with Axel Springer media outlets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted concerns about Russian influence in the American political system.  Zelensky said Russia had succeeded in warping “the information field of the world.” Without naming names, Zelensky claimed that American citizens were effectively doing Russia’s work within the U.S. media.

Zelensky also rejected the notion, promoted by some allies of Donald Trump, that Ukraine could end the war by conceding territories. Zelensky emphasized the need for a realistic and strategic approach to peace negotiations that do not embolden future Russian aggression. He remained hopeful for continued U.S. support and stressed the importance of a counteroffensive that delivers tangible results to sustain global backing against Russian advances. Zelensky added that former President Donald Trump had expressed interest in accepting his invitation to visit Ukraine but had not set a date.  Politico Kyiv Independent

Zelensky checks Kharkiv fortifications as Russia intensifies attacks.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday visited fortifications in Kharkiv, close to the Russian border, and called for increased military support amid intensified attacks on Ukraine's second-largest city. He acknowledged the efforts to bolster the city's defenses and maintain essential services despite ongoing Russian bombardment, which has included missile, drone, and guided bomb attacks. Zelenskiy emphasized the importance of strengthening Kharkiv to resist Russian aggression and highlighted the challenges Ukraine faces in protecting its cities due to ammunition shortages and delays in receiving aid from Western partners. "Everything that Putin touches turns into ruins. We must do everything possible and impossible to protect as many of our cities and communities as possible from it," Zelensky said. "Life must be victorious." Reuters 

UN nuclear watchdog's board sets emergency meeting after Zaporizhzhia attacks. Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant with drones for a third day on Tuesday, which Ukraine denied. Ukraine's foreign ministry said Russia was "the only source of threats" to the Zaporizhzhia plant. "Russia is the only terrorist state in the world that has not only seized, militarized, and is trying to hijack a nuclear power plant, but also uses it as a platform for propaganda," the ministry added. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed concerns about nuclear safety due to these attacks. An extraordinary meeting of the United Nations nuclear watchdog’s 35-member Board of Governors is scheduled on Thursday to address the situation, though the meeting is unlikely to clarify who was behind recent attacks. The board has passed four resolutions since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 condemning Russian actions against Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The most recent was last month when Russia was called on to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia. All six reactors are shut down at the facility, Europe's largest nuclear power station, which is located near the Ukraine war's front line. Still, constant power is required to cool the reactors and prevent a potentially catastrophic meltdown.  Reuters Reuters

Ukrainian security service’s cyber chief suspended after media investigation.  Ilia Vitiuk, head of cybersecurity at Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), was suspended from his duties and reassigned to serve in combat following a corruption investigation by Slidstvo.Info. The investigation revealed property ownership by Vitiuk's family that seemed beyond their official income, including a premium apartment and additional properties in Kyiv.  Slidstvo.Info said that after the investigation was published, there was an apparent attempt to draft the investigating journalist into military service under dubious circumstances. The SBU is reviewing the allegations, highlighting Vitiuk's prominent role in Ukrainian cybersecurity and previous instances of suspected financial misconduct within the cybersecurity sector. This case underscores ongoing concerns about corruption and the challenges facing Ukraine's public sector amid the war with Russia.  The Record

Eggs, ammo and underwear: Inside Ukraine’s new push against military graft.  Ukraine is intensifying its crackdown on corruption within military procurement, spotlighting both high-profile raids and strategic reforms led by new Defense Procurement Agency head Maryna Bezrukova. Tasked with ensuring integrity in contracts for military supplies, Bezrukova's efforts aim to overhaul a system tarnished by scandals, including overpriced purchases that have fueled opposition to foreign aid and compromised internal morale. Amid the war's pressures, her role involves not just criminal investigations but fundamentally transforming procurement practices to combat entrenched corruption. This initiative is critical not only for maintaining support for Ukraine's defense but also for aligning its military procurement with Western standards, which is essential for long-term goals like NATO integration. Wall Street Journal 

UN records a sharp rise in civilian deaths and injuries in Ukraine in March.  The United Nations reported a significant rise in civilian casualties in Ukraine for March, attributing the 20% increase from deaths in February to intensified Russian attacks. The U.N. Human Rights Office verified at least 604 civilians were killed or injured, including 57 children—double the number from the previous month. These casualties mainly resulted from missile attacks, the use of loitering munitions across Ukraine, and heightened aerial bombardments near the frontlines. Most of the damage to educational, health facilities, and critical infrastructure occurred in areas controlled by the Ukrainian government.  Reuters

ANALYSIS - How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future. The U.S. Patriot missile system has significantly proven its worth in Ukraine, successfully intercepting advanced Russian weaponry, including hypersonic missiles and aircraft. Despite the U.S. Army's plans to replace it with a more integrated air and missile defense system, the Patriot's performance in Ukraine has showcased its reliability and adaptability, which has rejuvenated global interest in the system, ensuring its continued use and relevance in global defense strategies. The system's upgrades and modifications, along with increased production of its missiles, underscore its sustained importance in addressing contemporary air defense challenges.  Defense News

Ukraine's farmers slam EU import controls on food products.  After intense negotiations, the European Union on Tuesday decided to implement stricter import controls on certain Ukrainian agricultural products. The decision, aimed at addressing concerns from EU frontline countries about an influx of cheaper Ukrainian goods, involves imposing tariffs on imports of Ukrainian poultry, eggs, sugar, oats, maize, groats, and honey in emergency situations. Ukrainian farmers criticized these measures as economically unjustified and threatening Ukraine's financial capacity to resist Russia. The measures are expected to cost Ukraine's economy approximately €330 million, sparking debates over European solidarity and the need for a balanced approach to support Ukraine while protecting EU farmers. "Regretfully, short-sighted political interests prevailed over the sense of solidarity and urgency to act," the Association Ukrainian Agribusiness Club said in a statement. "Europe's solidarity with Ukraine must be upheld with deeds, not words alone.”  EUObserver

The Americas

Kishida begins a 3-day state visit to Washington.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Washington visit, which began on Tuesday and will include a state dinner on Wednesday, underscores concerns over China's military assertiveness.  The visit will also highlight Japan’s support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Kishida has warned that if Russia prevails in the war, it could embolden China and lead to conflict in East Asia.

Biden's meeting with Kishida will address Japan's possible involvement in the AUKUS security pact, which includes the U.S., Britain, and Australia. The two allies will also seek to overcome a rift over the Biden administration's opposition to the planned sale of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel of Japan for $14.1 billion.

Microsoft announced that the tech company will invest $2.9 billion in Japan over the next two years to expand its cloud computing and artificial intelligence operations there while improving Tokyo’s cybersecurity capabilities.

On Thursday, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will participate in a summit with Kishida and Biden to discuss strengthening defensive ties amid China’s provocative actions in the South China Sea. Kishida, the first Japanese leader to make a state visit to the U.S. since Shinzo Abe in 2015, will also follow his late predecessor in delivering an address to a joint session of Congress on Thursday.  Associated Press Japan Times Reuters Deutsche Welle

Cameron urges U.S. to approve Ukraine aid. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he doesn’t intend to “lecture” but that it's “profoundly in your interest” for the U.S. to pass a stalled $60 billion aid package to Ukraine. Cameron made these remarks during a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. While declining to provide details, Cameron also met at Mar a Lago with former U.S. President Donal Trump.  Cameron said they discussed geopolitical issues including Ukraine and Gaza during their “private meeting.”  ABC Politico Reuters BBC New York Times Financial Times

State Department’s No. 2 official says China risks crossing ‘red line’ with Russia.  Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell suggested that China's deepening ties with Russia could be as concerning to Washington as the Taiwan issue is to Beijing.  Campbell emphasized the United States' historical mission of maintaining peace and stability in Europe and said that China's involvement with Russia might be crossing a line. Campbell warned that China's support for Russia could impact U.S.-China relations, especially if Russia's actions, such as seizing territory in Ukraine, alter the balance of power in Europe. Despite this, Campbell also mentioned that recent dialogues with China indicate efforts to keep relations stable, including upcoming talks with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Campbell stressed the importance of enhancing military and operational engagement between the U.S. and China to maintain communication channels.  Campbell also mentioned that AUKUS cooperation could help deter conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and mentioned that the U.S. is considering easing advisories warning U.S. citizens against traveling to China.  South China Morning Post Reuters

‘We are out of time’: Air Force secretary warns China’s military catching up as US bungles budgets.  Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall warned U.S. Senators that repeated delays in critical military funding due to budget battles have allowed China to build larger and more capable forces aimed at challenging U.S. power.  Kendall shared his concern that the U.S. is in a “race for military technological superiority” with China and that “our cushion is gone” and “we are out of time.”  He, in part, blamed Congress's reliance on stopgap funding measures instead of full yearly budgets for slowing the Air Force and Space Force's development of new technologies to counter growing Chinese capabilities in areas like anti-satellite weapons and hypersonics.  The $217.5 billion fiscal 2025 budget request for the Department of the Air Force was constrained by the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act, which capped the Defense Department budget for 2025 at $849.5 billion, a roughly 1% cut when adjusted for inflation.  Stars and Stripes

Sea services eye options to get ships in the water faster. The U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Administration are pushing for increased shipbuilding production and are exploring ideas to accelerate production. At a recent conference, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti discussed the Navy's ongoing shipbuilding efforts, with 88 ships on contract, 66 under construction, and 57 planned for acquisition over the next five years. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan described the service's current shipbuilding program as “the largest acquisition since World War II.” Franchetti said that while these investments will take time to yield results, the Navy needs to start budgeting for them now, and Congress must pass spending plans on time to support the effort.  Defense News

Marine Corps delays 1st deployment of new heavy-lift helicopter to 2026.  The U.S. Marine Corps has pushed back the planned initial deployment of its new CH-53K King Stallion heavy-lift helicopter to 2026, a year later than previously anticipated.  Colonel Kate Fleeger, the King Stallion program manager, said at the Navy League's Sea-Air-Space conference that the first deployment will be from the East Coast with a Marine Expeditionary Unit in 2026. This revised timeline marks the second delay, as the Marine Corps had earlier planned for an initial deployment in 2025, and before that in 2024. The King Stallion is touted as the most powerful helicopter in the U.S. military and will provide heavy-lift capabilities for the Marines when deployed.  Defense News

The Marines’ Pacific allies are copying its littoral regiment moves.  Lieutenant General James Bierman, the U.S. Marine Corps' deputy commandant for operations, said that Pacific allies are adopting some of the Corps' new littoral warfare concepts developed to counter China in the region.  Speaking at the Navy League's Sea-Air-Space conference, Bierman outlined three key challenges the U.S. military faces in the Western Pacific, “time, space, and access.”  He acknowledged China's growing military capabilities but reaffirmed that the U.S. is “purposefully campaigning and posturing to maintain and magnify their doubt and unease.”  Defense News

Top Democrat says he needs more answers before approving F-15 sale to Israel. Representative Gregory Meeks, Democrat ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is withholding support for the planned sale of F-15 fighter jets and munitions until receiving “assurances” on how Israel will use the weapons. Meeks, who is returning to Washington for a classified briefing on the proposed weapons package, holds an effective veto power over foreign military sales as a leading member of the committee responsible for approving such deals. The presidential administration typically seeks informal approval from the top two leaders of the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees before formally notifying Congress of potential arms sales.  Politico

Asia and Oceania

U.S. likely to have more joint South China Sea patrols.  More joint patrols can be expected in the South China Sea after drills by the United States, Australia, the Philippines and Japan last weekend, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday.  Warships from the four nations staged the exercises on Sunday after Chinese pressure on the Philippines in the disputed strategic waterway.  The issue is likely to come up at U.S. summits this week with the Japanese and Philippine leaders.  Reuters Reuters

US Coast Guard defends its boardings of Chinese fishing vessels in South Pacific as legal.  U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral Michael Day defended boardings of Chinese fishing vessels by U.S. Coast Guard vessels in South Pacific island nations on Wednesday.  Day said, "We do these boardings at the behest of those host nations who invite us to board, to work with them collaboratively in protecting their Exclusive Economic Zones."  He hailed the return of the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Harriet Lane after its Pacific Islands patrol, which found six Chinese fishing boats violating Vanuatu's fisheries law after being inspected by local police who were on board the first U.S. Coast Guard boat to patrol the waters of the Pacific Islands nation.  Reuters 

China's Xi says nobody can stop 'family reunion' with Taiwan.  Former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday.  This is on his second trip to China, after becoming the first former Taiwanese leader to visit the country last year.  At their meeting, Taiwanese media reported that Xi said, “External interference cannot stop the historical trend of reunion of the country and family,” referring to support given by Western countries to Taiwan and China’s goal of reunification with the island.  Ma said that war between China and Taiwan would be unbearable for “the Chinese people” on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, adding that he hopes disputes will be resolved peacefully.  Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said it regretted that Ma did not convey Taiwan’s insistence on defending its democracy and sovereignty and that Taipei demands an end to intimidation from Beijing.  Reuters South China Morning Post 

China pushes back against Yellen’s warnings on overcapacity. At the end of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing, Chinese officials pushed back against her call for China to scale back industrial production to avoid oversupplying global markets. Chinese Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min defended China's industrial policies, stating overcapacity is a “manifestation of the market mechanism” that occurs in any economy, including Western nations. Both the U.S. and China agreed to talks on “balanced economic growth” in the future.  Wall Street Journal 

US to change Japan command posture to boost deterrence in face China-U.S. Envoy. The U.S. is working to fundamentally improve its military command posture at Japan's planned new joint command center for better collaboration and increased deterrence against Chinese pressures.  U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said that the U.S. military's presence at Japan's new command center will be restructured for improved coordination with a focus on the co-production of defense technology to bolster their military industrial bases.  Reuters

China and Russia double down on defying US. Russia and China are reinforcing their alliance and opposition to perceived U.S. global dominance, despite warnings from the U.S. for China to refrain from boosting Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Tuesday, emphasizing trade to circumvent Western sanctions and criticizing the U.S.'s influence. While the U.S. has not formally accused China of providing lethal aid to Russia, it has expressed concerns over support that could enhance Russia's war capabilities. China denies selling weapons to Russia and accuses the U.S. of escalating the conflict by arming Ukraine. Lavrov’s meetings also addressed the strategic competition in the global south and the Asia-Pacific region. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China as early as next month. Wall Street Journal New York Times South China Morning Post

South Korea opposition projected to win majority in elections.  Exit polls for South Korea’s parliamentary elections show that the country’s main opposition Democratic Party and its allies will increase their majority, winning 183-197 seats of the country’s 300-seat legislature.  The ruling People Power Party (PPP) is projected to win 85-100 seats.  If confirmed, the results will deal a massive blow to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and make him a lame duck for his remaining three years in office.  Al Jazeera Associated Press 

Europe

Security increased for Champions League Games after ISIS threats. The French government said it will “considerably” reinforce security in Paris ahead of a Champions League football match between Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona following a threat from the Islamic State (IS) group. The terrorist organization reportedly threatened to target quarterfinal matches in UEFA's flagship competition this week.  French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said that police resources for the event have been significantly increased. The heightened security measures come after a media outlet linked to ISIS released a threatening image naming the four host stadiums, including the caption “Kill them all.”  New York Times Politico

Launch of Russia's Angara rocket set for Wednesday, Roscosmos says. The launch of the Angara A5 space rocket from Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome will take place on Wednesday, the state space agency Roscosmos said on the Telegram messaging app, after the original launch was aborted on Tuesday due to a technical malfunction. Reuters

Russian court lengthens sentence for jailed former Navalny staffer. In Russia, a court on Tuesday increased the prison sentence of Lilia Chanysheva, a former associate of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, from 7 1/2 years to 9 1/2 years on extremism charges. This decision is part of the ongoing crackdown on dissent, particularly targeting those associated with Navalny and critics of the war in Ukraine. Chanysheva's charges were linked to Navalny’s organizations, previously labeled as extremist groups.  Reuters Associated Press Moscow Times 

MEPs set to rubber-stamp new restrictive phase of EU asylum. The European Parliament is poised to approve a major overhaul of the European Union’s asylum management system, aiming to transform migration handling before the June European elections. The reforms include mechanisms for member states to deny entry during crises. While €2bn is already earmarked for rollout, the long-awaited reform faces challenges in implementation, financing, and political will. The EU faces dissent from member states like Hungary, Poland, and Denmark, each adopting a tough stance against migration. Last year, 380,000 irregular arrivals and over a million asylum applications were registered. EUObserver

Iceland picks Bjarni Benediktsson as next prime minister.  Bjarni Benediktsson, the current Foreign Minister of Iceland and leader of the Independence Party, will become the country's next Prime Minister, replacing Katrin Jakobsdottir who resigned to run for president.  Reuters Politico

Middle East

U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission Principals Meeting Statement.  The Chief of the General Staff of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Gen. Abdel Emir Rashid Yarallah and the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla co-chaired the inaugural U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission meeting on Monday. The two military leaders reaffirmed their commitment to an orderly transition from the international Coalition's mission against ISIS in Iraq to enduring bilateral security partnerships. They also pledged to build broader security cooperation between the U.S. and Iraq to contribute to regional stability and security. Since its inception in January 2024, the Higher Military Commission's three subcommittees have conducted meetings in Baghdad, supported by Coalition members, to discuss ISIS threats, the operational environment, and Iraqi Security Forces' capabilities.  U.S. Department of Defense

At least five killed in militant attack on Iranian police. Sunni militants from the Jaish al-Adl group attacked two police cars in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province on Tuesday, killing at least five police officers and wounding one according to Iranian state media. The attack comes just days after the same group assaulted two Revolutionary Guards' headquarters in the region, killing 11 security personnel. It was reported that the police officers were returning from transporting a suspect linked to the recent killing of another officer during a drug operation. Jaish al-Adl claims to fight for greater rights and improved living conditions for the ethnic Baluchi Sunni minority in Shi'ite-majority Iran. The Sistan-Baluchestan province, bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan, commonly experiences clashes between Iranian forces and Sunni militants as well as drug traffickers.  Reuters Associated Press 

Africa

Niger coup risks jump in EU immigration, commissioner says. The coup in Niger has sparked concerns within the European Union about a potential increase in irregular immigration. The military junta that seized power last year has revoked laws reducing migrant flow. Ahead of a crucial vote Wednesday in the European Parliament on revising EU migration policies, Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson highlighted the urgency of the issue due to the already significant number of irregular entries this year. A proposed migration pact aims to streamline asylum processes and strengthen border controls. More than 45,500 people have entered the EU so far this year outside of regular border crossings, according to United Nations data. Such arrivals are way below the 2015 peak when more than a million people, mostly Syrian refugees, reached the bloc.  Reuters

Sudan's war, drone strikes spill into farming state hosting displaced people. Drones targeted the Sudanese city of al-Gadaref, which has largely remained peaceful and served as a refuge for nearly half a million displaced individuals amid the ongoing conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  The attack, which eyewitnesses say focused on military installations, marks an escalation in a war nearing its one-year anniversary.  The RSF controls significant parts of Sudan, including the capital, while the army retains the north and east.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Iran’s drone proliferation redefining conflict in multiple world hot spots.  Over the last two years, increasing evidence of Iran’s role in armed drone proliferation has emerged in conflict zones beyond Ukraine, including Sudan and multiple locations in the Middle East.   According to a Bloomberg analysis, Iran is accumulating funds for its defense industry and expanding its roster of partners through its drone exports from South America to Central Asia.  Iran’s platforms are often adapted by local drone producers to suit location-specific requirements.  According to Bloomberg, Iran’s drone production is advancing the country’s foreign ambitions even more than its missile program, support for proxies, or nuclear weapons research.  Matthew McInnis, the former State Department deputy special representative for Iran, notes that the last two years have been “a period of hyper-acceleration of new tactics and techniques for Iran’s employment of UAVs.”  Iranian drones are becoming stealthier, Bloomberg says, and operational tactics more sophisticated.  Iranian analysts have traveled to Russia to study the impact and further refine evasion techniques, a development that McInnis reflects how Iran and Russia “are learning from each other. That is almost as important as the technology-sharing itself.”  Bloomberg

Microsoft plans $2.9 billion investment in Japan AI data centers, skill development.  Microsoft President Brad Smith, in an interview with Nikkei, announced that the company will invest $2.9 billion in Japanese data centers by 2025.  A formal unveiling of Microsoft’s investment, the largest so far in Japan, will be made to coincide with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Washington.  Smith said that the embrace of AI capabilities, along with investments in domestic production, is "a critical national priority for governments around the world." Microsoft’s plans call for the installation of advanced AI semiconductors at two existing sites in eastern and western Japan along with an AI reskilling program aiming to train 3 million workers over three years.  Smith projected that the competitiveness of Japan’s economy will depend on AI integration, which he described as key to sustaining “productivity growth, even when a country has a declining population."   Smith added that the incorporation of AI into robotics will give Japan “the opportunity to build on its technological strengths in many other areas."  Nikkei Asia Reuters   Cybernews

Ukraine making novel use of AI to plan military operations, conduct risk assessments.  Ukraine is employing AI in novel ways in planning and carrying out military operations.  In a 2022 operation, AI algorithms developed by the Open Minds Institute in Kyiv scoured Russian social media content and data on factors such as alcohol consumption to gauge the impact on Russian morale of a planned Ukrainian attack on a key bridge in occupied Kherson.  Institute founder Sviatoslov Hnizdovsky said that the resulting AI-aided reports helped interpret the evolving sentiments of Russian “loyalists” and liberals over “the potential plight of their country’s soldiers.”  Hnizdovsky said the Institute’s sensitive work continues to factor into Ukrainian decisions on military campaigns.  AI factors into many other aspects of Ukrainian military planning and assessments, including use of the technology to examine deep pools of text and images to surface clues on locations of Russian units or weapons systems.  Maksym Zrazhevsky, an analyst with the Molfar intelligence firm, said this “puzzle-pieces” technique generates 2-5 target identifications daily.  In counter-intelligence operations, AI tools from the U.S. Palantir firm have been used to uncover linkages in data from a variety of sources.  A hypothetical example was cited of tying together information on a recent divorcee facing substantial debts who happened to open a foreign bank account and subsequently is tied by location-tracking phone data to the vicinity of a Russian missile attack.  AI analysis of these multiple data points may flag an individual as a potential risk.  Evan Platt, a member of the Zero Line NGO that provides equipment to Ukrainian troops, described AI as a “bright spot” in Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression.  Economist

U.K.-led drone coalition propelling ‘next generation’ AI-enabled Ukrainian UAVs.  Ukrainian deputy defense minister Kateryna Chernohorenko has described an AI-enhanced drone development project that will add to the detection-evading capabilities of the military’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).  Chernohorenko said the project also would equip UAVs with image recognition targeting systems to autonomously detect and attack targets.  A key advantage of the AI-enhanced one-way attack drones, Chernohorenko said, is that they would be more effective against Russian electronic jamming, permitting pilots to operate them further from the front line.  When the new drones come within a mile of a target, autonomous AI systems would complete the mission, avoiding electronic jamming by Russian defenders.  She said a U.K.-led drone coalition is contributing more than $250 million for the joint venture, which has a total budget exceeding $1.5 billion.  About one-fifth of the funds raised by the drone coalition will be committed to manufacturing Ukraine’s next-generation combat drones.  The Telegraph

Lively Starlink black market links resellers to battlefield users.  A thriving black market in Starlink internet terminals is emerging in multiple conflict zones, according to the Wall Street Journal.  The newspaper reports that Starlink equipment providing quick and secure access to the internet is appearing on battlefields from Ukraine to Sudan.  In addition to tactical communications links between commanders and deployed units, Starlink enables remote control of drones and other battlefield technologies.  In documenting Starlink’s expanding use, the Wall Street Journal tracked Starlink sales on Russian online retail platforms, including links  to U.S. sellers on eBay.  The newspaper also interviewed intermediaries in Russia and Sudan and monitored Russian volunteers who transport Starlink equipment to frontline troops.  Its investigation revealed a “shadowy supply chain” that extends from Africa to Southeast Asia and the United Arab Emirates.  John Plumb, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Space Policy, said last week that Ukraine and Starlink are cooperating on ways to curtail Russian use of the terminals.  Wall Street Journal

South Korea announces multi-billion dollar investment in AI chip development.  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has announced a nearly $7 billion government investment in AI by 2027 in order to maintain the country’s leadership in cutting-edge semiconductors.   Yoon described global semiconductor competition as "an industrial war and an all-out war between nations.”  A government statement added that the investment signals South Korea’s intent to expand AI chip R&D, including areas such as artificial neural processing units (NPUs) and next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips.  Yoon said South Korea has the goal of becoming one of the top three countries in AI technology with a 10 percent share, or greater, of the global system semiconductor market by 2030.  The Seoul government also has committed to promote the development of next-generation artificial general intelligence (AGI) and next generation AI safety technologies.  Reuters

Japanese firms form fusion energy group to advance technology R&D.  Late last month a coalition of Japanese companies formed the Japan Fusion Energy Council (J-Fusion) to advance the Japanese energy sector’s development of fusion technology and to push the government on safety rules and standards.  Nuclear fusion technology is expected to be on the agenda of the U.S.-Japan summit that begins on Wednesday.  J-Fusion members, which includes the Sumitomo Corporation, Furukawa Electric, and startup firms, hopes to incentivize funding for the fusion power sector to keep pace with foreign rivals. More than 50 companies have shown interest in joining the group. Takaya Taguchi, one of J-Fusion’s founders, said "we cannot sustainably generate large amounts of power with existing energy sources like fossil fuels, nuclear or renewables," especially in light of the climate and energy security issues linked to those sources.  The creation of J-Fusion is a step in the right direction, Taguchi said, although he acknowledged skepticism among some of the group’s members given the nascent state of the technology.  Nuclear fusion also has a mixed reception among the public, partly due to the trauma the country experienced with the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in 2011.  Nikkei Asia

U.S.-Japan generative AI cooperation pact to be signed after Biden-Kishida summit.  The U.S. and Japan will sign the first-ever bilateral agreement on generative AI research in the wake of the summit between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida this week.  Japanese education minister Masahito Moriyama will travel to the U.S. soon to sign the agreement with David Turk, deputy secretary of the U.S. Energy Department.  The focus of the agreement is on the joint use of foundational models that drive generative AI.  The Japanese research and development agency known as RIKEN is working on a foundation model with 100 billion parameters while the U.S. Argonne National Laboratory is developing a model projected to have over 1 trillion parameters.  The two research facilities are slated to collaborate in seven areas, including joint use of generative AI and data and researcher exchanges.  Joint use of the U.S. supercomputer Aurora and Japan’s Fugaku supercomputer is planned.  The generative AI initiative is expected to be mentioned in the joint summit statement issued by Biden and Kishida.  Nikkei Asia

Google turns to in-house chip design, new business models to contain AI costs.  Google has undertaken production of its own semiconductors to power a range of platform operations, including YouTube advertising and big data analysis.  Google is turning to these chips to contain AI expenses and lessen dependence on outside vendors.  The new chips can perform multiple tasks, including powering Google’s search engine and AI-related work.  They can process large amounts of data and manage services to billions of users.  Although the in-house chip production will impact long-standing partnerships with companies like Intel, Google vice president Amin Vahdat does not regard it as a competitive move.  Instead, he says, “I see this as a basis for growing the size of the pie.”  Google CFO Ruth Porat has advised investors to expect substantial spending increases in 2024 on technical infrastructure, including AI chips.  Google’s largest chip, Axion, is based on circuitry designs by the U.K. firm Arm, marking a departure from chip technology provided previously by Intel and AMD.  Wall Street Journal Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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