Report for Tuesday, September 24, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Lebanon says nearly 500 die in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon’s deadliest day

Pentagon to deploy more U.S. troops to the Middle East to protect Americans living there

Ukraine says China is key route for foreign tech in Russian weapons

U.S. officials say Russia and Iran increasing use of AI  to influence Presidential election

Researchers claim Russia's advanced Sarmat missile suffered failure during test

U.S. government officials, drone manufacturers, in Taiwan to secure supply chain

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

View From Ukraine: US is Bowing To Russia’s ‘Blackmail’The Cipher Brief

Pentagon May be Slow to ‘Paradigm Shift’ in AI-Driven WeaponsThe Cipher Brief 

Reagan Did Win the Cold WarThe Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Lebanon says nearly 500 die in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon’s deadliest day.  The Israeli military said its warplanes took aim at 1,300 targets in Lebanon on Monday. The Lebanese Health Ministry said the strikes killed 492 people and injured more than 1,600. Israel's military said it struck Hezbollah in Lebanon's south, east and north, destroying "launchers, command posts and terrorist infrastructure."  It was Lebanon’s deadliest day since the Hamas war began last October and Hezbollah started firing across Lebanon’s border into northern Israel, in sympathy with the Gazans.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel does not “wait for the threat — we take action before it.”  Tens of thousands of Israelis have fled their homes in the north of Israel. Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have promised to push Hezbollah back from the border so those residents can go home. Lebanese civilians have paid a heavy price. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Monday evening that 35 children, 58 women and two medics were among the day's dead. South Lebanon’s roads were clogged with panicked people fleeing the border area in packed vehicles and on foot.  Reuters  New York Times  Washington Post 

Iran president warns of wider regional war with 'irreversible' consequences.  Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, arriving in New York Monday to attend the United Nations General Assembly, said Israel is trying to drag the Middle East into a full-blown war. Asked if Iran will step in to help its proxy Hezbollah, Pezeshkian said, "We will defend any group that is defending its rights and itself." But he also said, "We do not wish to be the cause of instability in the Middle East as its consequences would be irreversible, and he didn’t make clear when Iran would step in to try to defend Hezbollah from Israel’s relentless bombardment.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, also in New York, said the situation was close to a full-fledged war. He said world leaders must stop it: "Here in New York is the moment to do that."  Reuters 

Iran's Guards ban pagers and walkie-talkies after Israel booby-trapped Hezbollah comms.  Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards Corps has ordered its soldiers to stop using electronic communication devices, for fear Israel has rigged them to explode, as thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah did last week, Reuters reported, quoting two senior Iranian security officials. They said the IRGC is inspecting all devices, not just communication equipment. They also said Iran fears infiltration by Israeli agents and is investigating IRGC ranks, some 190,000 strong, for signs that Israel is covertly paying officers.  It’s not clear how IRGC personnel manage to communicate. "For now, we are using end-to-end encryption in messaging systems," an Iranian security official told Reuters.  Reuters

Pentagon to deploy more U.S. troops to the Middle East to protect Americans living there amid rising tensions.  Some dozens of U.S. troops are being dispatched to the Middle East to help protect the thousands of Americans who are stationed there, Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Monday.  About 40,000 American troops are stationed in the region on bases in Iraq, in Syria and in the Persian Gulf countries. The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln is in the Gulf of Oman, and the carrier U.S.S. Harry S. Truman, sailed for the Mediterranean Monday on a regular deployment.  New York Times 

Many flights to and from Beirut airport canceled. The website of Lebanon’s Rafic Hariri International Airport revealed that more than 30 flights to and from the capital of Beirut on Tuesday have been canceled. According to the website, 15 outgoing flights and 29 incoming flights from several airlines, such as Qatar Airways, Turkish Airways, and various airlines from the United Arab Emirates, were canceled. Qatar Airways announced a suspension of flights to Beirut until Wednesday “due to the ongoing situation in Lebanon,” as Israel and Hezbollah trade strikes. Reuters Times of Israel

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Keeps the Money Rolling in for Putin’s War in Ukraine. Russia's draft budget for 2025 shows defense spending will rise to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion), equaling 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) as President Vladimir Putin continues prioritizing the war on Ukraine. Military expenditures are projected to only slightly decline in 2026 and 2027. Defense and security spending will consume around 40% of the total budget. Classified spending is also expected to rise. The government predicts the budget deficit will shrink to 0.5% of GDP next year, relying on increased tax revenues. Bloomberg

Kremlin says it will study Zelensky's 'victory plan' if details are released officially. The Kremlin said Monday it would review Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan" for ending the war if official details are released. Zelensky is set to present the plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and other leaders during his visit to the U.S. this week. The plan aims to secure more aid from allies to pressure Russia into accepting Kyiv's terms for ending the war.  Reuters

Ukraine Needs to Be Realistic About Its Goals, Czech President Says. In an interview in Prague on Monday, Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, stated that Ukraine must be realistic about its territorial recovery prospects, suggesting some areas may remain under Russian control "temporarily." Pavel, a strong supporter of Ukraine, highlighted growing European fatigue over the 31-month conflict and warned that neither Ukraine nor Russia would achieve their maximalist goals. He emphasized the need for realistic expectations regarding international support for Ukraine. “To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen,” Mr. Pavel said in his office at Prague Castle this past week, “So the end will be somewhere in between.” New York Times

Scholz meets Zelensky, says Germany will not let Kyiv use its weapons on Russian soil. President Volodymyr Zelensky met on Monday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Scholz reaffirmed Germany's refusal to allow Ukraine to use German weapons for strikes within Russia. Despite pressure on the U.S. and U.K. to lift similar restrictions, Scholz maintained his stance against supplying long-range Taurus missiles. Zelensky and Scholz discussed Ukraine’s peace plan, emphasizing preparations for a second global peace summit to achieve European and Ukrainian security. Kyiv independent

Zelensky, Japanese PM Kishida meet in US, discuss energy sector. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Monday with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York to discuss Ukraine's energy challenges. Kishida announced Japan's upcoming energy assistance package, including transformers and generators. The leaders also addressed preventing Russia from evading sanctions and accessing frozen Russian assets. Japan has committed over $12 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia's invasion. Kyiv Independent

Modi Meets Zelensky In New York, Reaffirms Support For Peaceful Resolution. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York, reaffirming India’s support for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Modi reiterated India's commitment to restoring peace and stability, while Zelensky expressed gratitude for India's support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The meeting followed Modi's recent visit to Ukraine, marking the first time an Indian Prime Minister visited the country amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. News18

Ukraine says China is key route for foreign tech in Russian weapons. Ukraine's presidential adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk said Tuesday that about 60% of foreign components found in Russian weapons on the battlefield originate from China. He emphasized China's role in supplying crucial parts for surveillance, drones, and missiles. Vlasiuk also noted that parts from the U.S., the Netherlands, Japan, and Switzerland are in Russian military equipment despite Western sanctions to prevent such supply. Reuters

Russia and its 'accomplices' want to disrupt global unity, Zelensky tells UN. At the United Nations Summit of the Future on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia and its "accomplices" of actively undermining global unity and the U.N. Charter. He called on world leaders to support Ukraine's efforts against this destructiveness and invited them to join the upcoming global peace summit for Ukraine. Zelensky's U.S. tour focuses on promoting Ukraine's "victory plan," which includes fast-tracked NATO accession. Kyiv Independent

Next few months will be 'decisive,' Zelensky says in US. During a speech at the American Academy of Achievement award ceremony in Washington D.C. on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the next few months will be decisive in the war against Russia. He urged Ukraine's allies to act swiftly, stressing the need to shape the war’s outcome to protect freedom. Zelensky's U.S. visit includes meetings with President Joe Biden, U.S. presidential candidates, and presentations of his "victory plan" to secure international support without relying on Russia's cooperation.Kyiv Independent

Zelensky says Ukraine's war with Russia is 'closer to the end' as he appeals for more help. In an interview with ABC's Robin Roberts on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed optimism that the war with Russia is "closer to the end" than many believe, emphasizing the need for strengthening Ukraine’s military. He reiterated that his "victory plan" focuses on bolstering Ukraine’s defenses rather than negotiating with Russia. Zelenskyy highlighted the success of Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "afraid" of Ukraine's advances. Zelensky will present his plan to President JOE Biden and other U.S. leaders during his visit. ABC News

Ukrainian troops detect 12,000 targets weekly with help of AI. Ukrainian troops detect 12,000 Russian military targets weekly using the Avengers artificial intelligence platform, developed by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence Innovation Centre. This AI platform analyzes drone and camera footage, allowing operators to make faster decisions while reducing errors from fatigue. Even in challenging conditions, it can detect military equipment, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. The platform continues to improve, and there are plans to expand its cloud capabilities and integrate AI into drones for enhanced military advantage. Ukrainska Pravda

Kyiv struck over 200 military targets in Russia using drones within a year. According to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Ukraine has destroyed or damaged over 200 Russian military targets using drones in the past year. These strikes have targeted airfields, control centers, and military bases, with Ukrainian drones reaching as far as Murmansk. The attacks have forced Russia to relocate aircraft away from the border. Ukraine has expanded its drone and ammunition capabilities, investing over $500 million in drones this year. Recent strikes include an attack on an arms depot in Tver Oblast, depleting months of Russian munitions. Kyiv Independent

Debate over Ukraine weapons restrictions divide allies, administration. The ongoing debate over easing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles has created a rift between the Biden administration and its allies. Ukraine has repeatedly requested the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike deeper into Russian territory, but the U.S. hesitates due to concerns about escalation. European allies and Kyiv argue that lifting these restrictions would improve Ukraine’s military effectiveness, while U.S. officials worry about Russian retaliation. Despite past denials, Ukraine believes the U.S. will eventually approve its request, though no decision has been made yet. Washington Post

Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia kills 1, injures 7, including children. Russian forces attacked Zaporizhzhia on Monday night, killing one man and injuring seven civilians, including two children, according to local authorities. The strike hit a residential neighborhood and a critical infrastructure facility. The previous night, 22 people were injured in Zaporizhzhia, marking the first use of a guided aerial bomb on the city. Kyiv Independent Reuters

1 person killed, 10 injured after Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces attacked the city of Kramatorsk and the village of Shakhove in Donetsk Oblast on Monday, killing one person and injuring at least 10 others, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported. Seven people including two children were wounded in the strike on Shakhove in the Pokrovsk district, Filashkin said. Kyiv Independent

Russian attack on Ukraine's Poltava region disrupts power supply, authorities say. A Russian attack early Tuesday on Ukraine's Poltava region damaged energy infrastructure, cutting power to 20 settlements, according to local authorities. Debris from downed drones also damaged several homes but caused no casualties. In the same attack, one person was killed, and seven others, including two children, were injured in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine's air force downed 66 out of 81 drones launched by Russia, while four missiles were also part of the assault. Reuters

West must boost aid to stop Russia plunging Ukraine into the dark, Borrell says. On Monday in New York, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell emphasized the urgent need for Western allies to boost military and energy aid to Ukraine as Russia targets its energy infrastructure ahead of winter. Borrell warned that Russia aims to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold, with attacks reducing Ukraine’s energy production by two-thirds. He stressed the importance of providing military and electricity support to help Ukraine endure the winter and improve its position for potential peace negotiations. Ukraine's electricity supply shortfall could reach 6 gigawatts this winter, about a third of the expected peak demand, the International Energy Agency said in a report published on Thursday. Reuters

Crimean Bridge ‘must come down,’ Ukraine says at Permanent Court of Arbitration. At the Permanent Court of Arbitration on Monday, Ukraine's Ambassador Anton Korynevych declared that the Crimean Bridge, built by Russia, is unlawful and "must come down." He accused Russia of using the bridge to block international shipping while allowing its vessels through the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, violating maritime laws. Ukraine began legal proceedings in 2016 after the bridge went up, linking its mainland to the peninsula. Kyiv Independent  Al Jazeera Ukrainian Pravda Euronews

On Ukraine’s Snake Island, the Heart of the Battle for the Black Sea.Snake Island, a 40-acre outcrop in the Black Sea, has been a highly contested military asset due to its strategic location. Controlling the island offers dominance over the surrounding waters, a key factor in the ongoing struggle between Ukraine and Russia. The island became iconic at the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion when Ukrainian troops famously defied a Russian warship. Recapturing it from Russia in mid-2022 allowed Ukraine to reopen crucial shipping lanes for grain exports, vital for its economy. The island also serves as a valuable base for monitoring Black Sea activity and threatening Russian positions in Crimea. Wall Street Journal

Russian forces storming Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, bloggers and media say. Russian forces on Tuesday began storming the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, which has resisted attacks since the war's start in 2022, according to Russian bloggers and state media. The town, located in the Donetsk region, is reportedly under heavy artillery fire, with Russian units advancing in a pincer movement. Ukrainian forces confirmed Russia's attempts to capture positions near Vuhledar but provided no further details. Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Ukraine since August, despite Ukrainian incursions in Russia’s Kursk region. Reuters

Putin’s forces are desperate for a prize eastern city and Ukraine will fight street to street to keep them out. Pokrovsk, a strategic city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, has become a critical target for Russian forces, who have sacrificed thousands of troops in attempts to seize it. Taking the city would split Ukraine’s defensive line and disrupt supplies. Ukrainian forces are heavily outnumbered but continue to resist. As Russia intensifies attacks, residents brace for a prolonged siege, with many evacuating. Street-by-street fighting is expected, similar to previous battles in Bakhmut and Mariupol, where Russia reduced towns to rubble before claiming victory. Ukraine remains determined to defend the city. The Independent

Zelensky: Trump doesn’t know how to end war and Vance is too radical. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Donald Trump's claim that he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine quickly, asserting that Trump lacks understanding of the conflict’s complexity. In an interview with The New Yorker, Zelensky also called Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, “dangerous” for suggesting Ukraine should concede territory. Zelensky argued that such concessions would appease Vladimir Putin and encourage further aggression. While concerned about Trump potentially cutting off military aid, Zelensky emphasized that Putin cannot be trusted, and any peace deal sacrificing Ukrainian land could risk escalating the conflict into a global war. The Telegraph 

Donald Trump says Zelensky wants Democrats to win US election. Donald Trump claimed Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky favors the Democrats in the U.S. election while contrasting himself as a candidate who would negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia. "I think Zelenskiy is the greatest salesman in history. Every time he comes into the country, he walks away with $60 billion," Trump said at a rally in western Pennsylvania. "He wants them to win this election so badly, but I would do differently - I will work out peace.” Trump did not provide details on his proposed peace plan, aside from pledging to speak with both Zelensky and Putin. No meeting between Trump and Zelensky has been scheduled while the Ukrainian leader is in the U.S. Reuters Bloomberg

Russia's T-80 Tank Keeps 'Getting Blown to Bits' in Ukraine. Russia has faced substantial tank losses during its invasion of Ukraine, leading to the deployment of older T-80 tanks. While the T-80 offers high speed with its gas turbine engine, it suffers from reliability issues and high fuel consumption. Historically, it underperformed in conflicts like the Chechen Wars due to poor crew training and tactical deployment. The National Interest

Russian sleeper cell plotting 'violent seizure of power in Odesa' thwarted, SBU claims. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) thwarted a Russian sleeper cell plotting a violent takeover of Odesa, the agency announced on Monday. The group, directed by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), initially planned to seize administrative buildings at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion but was ordered to lie low when the invasion faltered. The cell was reactivated over the summer, but the SBU neutralized the group before any actions could occur. Kyiv Independent

The US government is keeping tabs on Americans headed to Ukraine’s war zone. The U.S. government has been monitoring Americans who travel to Ukraine to fight, aiming to prevent potential domestic threats when they return. This effort, led by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), started in 2022 due to concerns that extremists might use combat training for violence at home. Though many Americans who fought in Ukraine have died or returned peacefully, Ryan Routh, who allegedly attempted to assassinate Donald Trump, fell through the cracks of this monitoring. Routh, turned away by Ukraine’s foreign legion, was not thoroughly investigated despite alarming rhetoric and actions. This oversight raises questions about the U.S. government’s risk assessment criteria. Politico

Ukrainians face growing homelessness crisis at home and abroad, report finds. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a growing homelessness crisis, with millions of Ukrainians displaced. A report by Depaul International found nearly a quarter of rough sleepers and those in emergency shelters are displaced Ukrainians. Over 3.5 million people are internally displaced, and 6.2 million refugees across Europe face increasing risks of homelessness as aid diminishes. Men between 18 and 60 are particularly vulnerable due to wartime conscription laws preventing them from leaving Ukraine. Charities and shelters are struggling to cope, and experts warn that war-driven homelessness will persist long after the conflict ends. The Guardian

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, September 23, 2024.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the U.S., emphasized the need for uninterrupted U.S. military aid and explored joint weapons production and defense investments. The Kremlin remains uninterested in peace talks with Ukraine, insisting on Ukraine's capitulation. Russian forces conducted their first glide bomb strikes on Zaporizhzhia City on Sunday-Monday, damaging civilian infrastructure and demonstrating Ukraine's need for enhanced air defense. A high-ranking Russian Aerospace Forces commander reportedly died by suicide due to internal conflicts within his unit's leadership. Russia informally backed a bill on Monday to fine individuals promoting "child-free propaganda" as part of efforts to address the country's demographic decline.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced near Hlyboke, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian forces made gains in Kursk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: What Does it Mean to Win the War in Ukraine?Thomas E. Graham emphasizes the lack of a clear, unified definition of "victory" in Russia’s war on Ukraine, both in the U.S. and among Western allies. While Ukraine, under President Volodymyr Zelensky, aims to restore its 1991 borders, there are varying perspectives on what would constitute a win, such as pushing Russia back to pre-February 2022 lines or simply maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty. The Biden administration, however, has not explicitly defined its goals, which Graham argues risks undermining U.S. strategy and support. He urges the U.S. to craft a coherent vision for victory and Europe’s security. The National Interest

Opinion: Germany, political extremism and the risks to Ukraine. Gideon Rachman discusses the rising influence of populist, pro-Russian parties in Germany and its potential impact on Ukraine. Parties like the AfD and BSW are gaining traction, raising concerns that Germany's support for Ukraine could wane. Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces pressure to balance domestic politics and maintain pro-Ukraine policies. With elections looming and Germany’s military and financial aid under scrutiny, Ukraine worries that any softening of German support could strengthen Russia’s position and lead to a weakened peace settlement. Financial Times

AMERICAS

U.S. intelligence officials say Russia and Iran stepping up use of AI  to influence Presidential election. Officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, briefing reporters Monday, said they’re seeing foreign actors, especially Russia and Iran, using generative AI technology to intensify their efforts to influence the U.S. presidential election. One official characterized AI as an “accelerant” that enables malign actors to proliferate false stories, via social media and websites posing as news outlets.  One notorious bogus story, falsely claiming Kamala Harris was involved in a hit-and-run accident, was not generated by AI, but the old-fashioned way, by staging actors, the briefers said.   Russia’s AI-generated stories “are consistent with Russia’s broader efforts to boost the former President’s candidacy and denigrate the Vice President and the Democratic Party, including through conspiratorial narratives,” the ODNI assessment said.  “Russian AI-generated content has also sought to emphasize divisiveU.S. issues such as immigration.”  ODNI Reuters

House GOP argues U.S.-China research has bolstered Beijing’s military technology. A recent report by congressional Republicans claims that partnerships between American universities and China over the past decade have permitted hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding to further Beijing's development of critical technologies, potentially benefiting China's military. The report, unveiled on Monday by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the House Education and Workforce Committee, notes collaborations in areas such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, nuclear technology, and semiconductors. The investigation found that U.S. tax dollars have inadvertently supported China's technological advancement and military modernization through these academic partnerships. It calls for stronger safeguards and enforcement to prevent such collaborations from compromising U.S. security. The report identified approximately 8,800 publications involving American researchers funded by the Department of Defense or U.S. intelligence agencies who collaborated with Chinese researchers, many of whom were linked to China's defense industry. The report, which also flagged joint institutes between U.S. and Chinese universities, prompted a broader discussion on balancing national security with academic exchange, with some experts warning that over-securitization could hinder scientific collaboration and person-to-person engagement. Associated Press New York Times  

Boeing offers striking union 30% pay rise. Union says it’s not enough.  Boeing made a new offer to its striking machinists union Monday in hopes of ending a strike costing hundreds of millions of dollars a week. Boeing offered a 30% pay increase over four years, plus a $6,000 ratification bonus. Union officials quickly threw cold water on the idea. “This proposal does not go far enough to address your concerns, and Boeing has missed the mark with this proposal,” the union wrote members, who must vote on the deal.  Boeing’s 33,000-member machinists union walked out Sept. 13. Wall Street Journal

GPS spoofing on the rise, threatening commercial flights.  GPS spoofing is a kind of electronic warfare that plagues commercial aircraft pilots, their bosses and safety officials.  It involves tampering with GPS signals to show a false location, in particular in war zones. Pilots, aviation-industry officials and regulators said spoofed GPS signals are spreading beyond active conflict zones near Ukraine and the Middle East. They confuse cockpit navigation and safety systems and can endanger commercial jets carrying passengers and cargo.  The attacks started affecting a large number of flights about a year ago, pilots and aviation experts said. The number of commercial flights  affected daily has surged from a few dozen in February to more than 1,100 in August, according to analyses from SkAI Data Services and the Zurich University of Applied Sciences.  Wall Street Journal 

U.S. plans to charge suspect who hid a Trump golf course with attempted assassination.  The U.S. Justice Department plans to charge Ryan Routh, 58, with attempting to assassinate former President Donald Trump after he was arrested on September 15 at the Republican candidate’s Florida golf course. Routh allegedly stalked Trump for about a month and set up a "sniper's nest" at the golf course. Prosecutors claim he had written letters indicating his intent to assassinate Trump, and offered a $150,000 bounty for his life. One of Routh’s lawyers argued that the incident was “perhaps . . . more of a publicity stunt than anything.” Routh has a criminal history and was arrested without firing a shot. He is currently charged with two gun-related offenses and is being held without bond. Reuters BBC Forbes Wall Street Journal   

Argentina court orders arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and Interior Minister. An Argentine federal court on Monday demanded the immediate arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello for alleged crimes against humanity, including repression, forced disappearances, torture, homicides, and persecution of dissidents since 2014. The court's decision came after Argentine prosecutor Carlos Stornelli appealed a previous ruling that dismissed the charges. The court members ordered that international arrest warrants be issued via Interpol to extradite Maduro and Cabello to Argentina. This development follows an escalation in tensions between Buenos Aires and Caracas, which intensified after Venezuela's Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for Argentina's President Javier Milei. The dispute centers around the detention and transfer to the U.S. of a cargo plane in Argentina, which was allegedly linked to a sanctioned Iranian airline and a Venezuelan state-owned company. Associated Press Washington Examiner Miami Herald 

EUROPE

Russia says 'nyet' to nuclear testing - with a condition.Russia will not conduct nuclear tests unless the United States does so first, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Monday. This comes amid speculation that Russia might abandon its moratorium on testing, especially as tensions rise over the war in Ukraine and U.S. missile systems in the Philippines. While Russia has modernized its nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya, Ryabkov emphasized that tests will only resume if the U.S. does. Russia's stance reflects broader concerns about nuclear brinkmanship as global powers race to modernize their arsenals. Reuters

Researchers analyze satellite images revealing that Russia's Sarmat missile suffered test failure. Russia appears to have experienced a "catastrophic failure" during a test of its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a critical component of its nuclear arsenal modernization. Satellite images from September 21 show extensive damage at the launch site in Plesetsk, indicating a possible explosion soon after ignition. The 35-meter-long RS-28 Sarmat, intended to replace the aging SS-18 missiles, has faced multiple delays and setbacks, with this incident marking the fourth consecutive test failure. Analysts suggest that this incident could further delay the missile's deployment, impacting Moscow's strategic nuclear forces. Despite the setback, it is expected that Russia will continue with the Sarmat program to maintain competition between its missile designers. Reuters

Splintered victory: German Social Democrats' regional win overshadowed by reliance on pro-Russia party. The initial excitement within German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) over their regional election win in Brandenburg quickly turned to concern as they faced the reality of needing support from a pro-Russian populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), to govern. The SPD won 31% of the vote, largely due to tactical voting against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured a record 29%. However, the mainstream parties that the SPD would usually ally with performed poorly, leaving the BSW as a potential kingmaker. The BSW, which shares anti-NATO, Russia-friendly, and anti-migration views with the AfD, demands support for urgent Ukraine peace talks and opposition to U.S. long-range weapons in Germany as conditions for any coalition. This complicates the SPD's ability to form a stable government. The political landscape in Germany’s eastern states is shifting, with the traditional political center struggling to form governments without the support of radical parties. Reuters

Russian cosmonauts, American astronaut return to Earth in Soyuz capsule. Two Russian cosmonauts, Oleg Kononenko and Nikolai Chub, touched back down on Earth on Monday after setting a record for the longest continuous stay aboard the International Space Station (ISS), spending 374 days in orbit. Kononenko, 60, also achieved a new record for the longest cumulative time spent in space, reaching a total of 1,111 days over five missions. They were accompanied by American astronaut Tracy Dyson, who launched to the ISS in March. The trio landed safely in Kazakhstan in the Soyuz MS-25 capsule. Moscow has announced plans to leave the ISS and build its own space station, though progress has been delayed. The ISS remains a rare area of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, with astronauts from both nations continuing to work together aboard the station. France 24 Associated Press Euronews Reuters   

Billionaire Telegram CEO Durov ignored warnings about app’s criminal content. Pavel Durov, the 39-year-old founder of the messaging app Telegram, is still facing legal challenges from French prosecutors, who have accused him of complicity in distributing illegal content such as child pornography, drugs, kill lists, and hacking software. This recent legal trouble follows years of repeated warnings from human rights and advocacy organizations urging Durov to implement more transparent content rules and enhance security features on Telegram. Despite these calls, Durov reportedly ignored the advice, prompting criticism that the app has become a hub for extremist and criminal activities, including terrorism and violent content. Telegram, which has grown to over 950 million users, has been denounced for not fully implementing end-to-end encryption, making it easier for nefarious content to proliferate. Although Telegram has made some efforts to moderate harmful content, researchers continue to find dangerous material on the platform. Wall Street Journal 

Sweden accuses Iranian cyber group of hacking messaging service in response to Koran burnings. Swedish prosecutors have accused Tehran of being behind a cyberattack last year involving 15,000 text messages calling on Swedes to take revenge on Koran burners. The messages, which were sent on August 1, 2023, were attributed to the Iranian state through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). They aimed to incite violence by encouraging recipients to retaliate against those who had burned the holy book, and to “paint the image of Sweden as an Islamophobic country.” The attack occurred during a tense period when Sweden's NATO membership application was at risk, partly due to public Koran burnings that angered the Muslim world, as well as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although Swedish investigators identified the Iranian hackers, they were unable to prosecute them because the suspects could not be charged in the Middle East or brought to Sweden for trial. Two weeks after the attack, Stockholm raised its terror threat level. Bloomberg Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Turkey's president urges U.S. to remove sanctions hampering defense purchases. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Monday called on the U.S. to lift sanctions that are impeding defense purchases and other "unilateral" measures that obstruct the goal of reaching $100 billion in bilateral trade between the two NATO allies. Relations between Ankara and Washington have soured due to issues like Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, which pushed the U.S. to impose sanctions and Turkey to withdraw from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Despite recent improvements in relations, such as the approval of Ankara's request to purchase F-16 fighter jets after it supported Sweden's NATO bid, Erdogan stressed the need for further cooperation, especially in the defense industry. He urged the removal of additional tariffs and sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Reuters

Syrian prime minister names Cabinet, appoints new foreign minister.Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali on Monday announced a new Cabinet, with Bassam Sabbagh appointed as the new Foreign Minister. Sabbagh previously served as a deputy to the former Foreign Minister, Faisal Mekdad, who has now been appointed Vice President for Foreign and Information Policies. Earlier this month, President Bashar Assad appointed Jalali, the former Communications Minister, as the new Prime Minister following the July parliamentary elections. Jalali has been under E.U. sanctions since 2014 due to the government's actions during Syria's civil conflict, which has claimed nearly half a million lives since 2011. Associated Press Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s central bank to cut reserve requirements, interest rates. China's central bank has introduced its most significant stimulus since the pandemic to revive the economy from deflation and steer it toward the government's growth target. The stimulus package includes broad funding and interest rate cuts, aiming to restore confidence in the world's second-largest economy. However, analysts caution that this may not be sufficient without additional fiscal measures, as weak credit demand and a lack of support for real economic activity pose challenges. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to lower borrowing costs, inject more funds into the economy, and ease household mortgage burdens. It will cut banks' reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for new lending, with potential further cuts later this year. The PBOC will also reduce key interest rates, including the seven-day reverse repo rate, to boost confidence. China's stock and bond markets reacted positively, and the yuan reached a 16-month high against the dollar following the announcement. Analysts remain skeptical about the impact, noting that weak consumer confidence and income uncertainty might limit the effectiveness of these measures.  Reuters 

U.S. government officials, drone manufacturers, in Taiwan to secure supply chain. A delegation of executives from 26 U.S. drone manufacturers is visiting Taiwan to examine potential partnerships with the goal of creating a secure supply chain for uncrewed systems. The visit, which began on Sunday, includes representatives from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Defense innovation unit. The group held policy discussions with officials from the American Institute in Taiwan and Taiwanese manufacturers, and visited commercial and defense companies. They are expected to meet with local drone associations, the Taiwanese military, and key defense contractors, including the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology and the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation. The visit is part of Washington’s effort to reduce supply chain risks by shifting manufacturing away from Beijing, seeking partners like Taipei to develop a supply chain for drones and counter-drone systems outside of China. The delegation includes major defense contractors like Northrop Grumman and Dedrone, as well as AeroVironment, known for its Switchblade drones. South China Morning Post 

Brazil working out details of Belt and Road Initiative with China, hesitant to make decision before U.S. election. Brazil’s government has formed an inter-ministerial working group to assess the implications of joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with a focus on potential impacts on relations with the U.S., especially if GOP nominee Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election. The Chinese embassy in Brazil has indicated that it expects Brazil to formalize its BRI membership during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit in November. However, Brazil’s foreign ministry diplomats have advised President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to delay the announcement until after the American election on November 5, to avoid straining relations with a possible future Trump administration. Lula has expressed support for Vice President Kamala Harris, and there are concerns that Brazil joining the BRI might be perceived as aligning with Beijing against Washington. Lula has publicly stated that he is evaluating what Brasilia stands to gain from the BRI, and the Chinese ambassador to Brazil has called BRI membership a "fundamental measure" that aligns with the South American country’s development goals. South China Morning Post 

Canadian man who was imprisoned by China on espionage charges claims he was psychologically tortured. Michael Kovrig, a Canadian national detained in China for over 1,000 days, described his experience as psychological torture, detailing months of solitary confinement and daily interrogations lasting up to nine hours. In an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Kovrig shared that he even missed the birth of his daughter. Kovrig and fellow Canadian Michael Spavor were arrested in December 2018 shortly after Ottawa detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a U.S. warrant. Both Canadians were accused of spying. Kovrig, a former diplomat, revealed that he was held in a solitary cell with no daylight, constant fluorescent lighting, and minimal food rations, enduring nearly six months of this treatment, which he said far exceeded the U.N.'s 15-day limit for solitary confinement without it being considered psychological torture. He said Chinese authorities aimed to “bully and torment and terrorize and coerce” him into accepting a false narrative. Both Kovrig and Spavor were released in September 2021, the same day the U.S. Justice Department dropped its extradition request for Meng, allowing her to return to China. The Chinese embassy in Ottawa responded by asserting that the cases were handled according to the law, maintaining that Kovrig and Spavor were suspected of activities threatening Beijing's national security. South China Morning Post CBC The Guardian CNN   

Bangladesh army head vows to back Yunus' interim government, secure elections within 18 months. Bangladesh's army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, on Monday said he has pledged full support to the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, following the recent expulsion of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amid violent, student-led protests.  Zaman, who assumed his role just weeks before Hasina's ousting and subsequent flight to India, underscored the need for reforms in the judiciary, police, and financial institutions to pave the way for free and fair elections within 18 months. Despite past instances of military involvement in politics, Zaman vowed to keep the army “professional” and politically neutral, distancing it from political influence. The interim government is also investigating allegations of forced disappearances and considering constitutional reforms to potentially place the armed forces under the president rather than the prime minister. The army has stepped up law and order duties nationwide as the country stabilizes after a period of bloody unrest. Reuters

AFRICA

Egyptian ship delivers more weapons to Somalia.Egypt recently delivered a second large shipment of arms to Somalia, including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, an action that further heightens tensions with Ethiopia. The growing relationship between Cairo and Mogadishu, driven by their mutual distrust of Ethiopia, prompted Egypt to send weapons to Somalia after the two countries signed a joint security agreement last month. One diplomat reported that the shipment of weapons was unloaded in Mogadishu on Sunday under heavy security, and was intended to strengthen Somalia's military capabilities. Strain between the nations stem from Ethiopia's January agreement with Somaliland, which involves leasing land for a port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence. This pact angered Somalia. Egypt, already in conflict with Addis Ababa over the construction of a massive hydro dam on the Nile River, has condemned the Somaliland deal. Reuters

US to give Africa 1 million does of MPOX vaccine to curb outbreak. U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce on Tuesday the donation of 1 million MPOX vaccine doses and at least $500 million to help African nations combat a recent MPOX outbreak. This announcement will be made during the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a global public health emergency in August, following its spread from the Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring countries and beyond. The Biden administration is urging other countries to contribute as well, stressing the need for robust global support.  Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Oil prices surge over fears of broader Middle East conflict, Chinese monetary stimulus, and hurricane in U.S. Oil prices increased on Tuesday due to new monetary stimulus from China, the world's largest oil importer, and concerns that rising tensions in the Middle East might disrupt supply from this key oil-producing region. Additionally, the threat of a major hurricane impacting the U.S., the world's top crude producer, also contributed to the price rise. Brent crude futures for November rose by 69 cents to $74.59 a barrel, and U.S. WTI crude futures for November increased by 74 cents to $71.11. Both oil contracts had closed lower on Monday due to concerns over weak demand following disappointing economic data from the euro zone and ongoing worries about Chinese fuel consumption. Traders have been keeping an eye on China after its central bank announced broad monetary stimulus, including cutting banks' reserve requirement ratio and reducing key interest rates, to support its struggling economy. This move provided some relief to the oil market, which had been hoping for economic measures from China to counteract the slowdown. And in the Middle East, Israel targeted Lebanon with airstrikes, which reportedly killed nearly 500 people. Traders were also monitoring potential disruptions from a hurricane expected to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast by the end of the week. American oil producers began evacuating staff from offshore platforms as a precaution, with some companies pausing production ahead of the storm. Reuters 

More details on proposed U.S. ban on Chinese software in web-linked vehicles.  The Biden administration, citing national security concerns, on Monday announced a broad array of measures to prevent the use of Chinese-made software in internet-linked vehicles in the U.S.  The initiatives proposed by the Commerce Department seek to block Chinese government agencies from monitoring Americans’ movements or using embedded vehicle software to connect to critical infrastructure or the power grid.  National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters over the weekend that “many of these technologies collect large volumes of information on drivers.”  The web of connections made possible by internet-linked devices, Sullivan added, “bring new vulnerabilities and threats, especially in the case of vehicles or components developed in the PRC. and other countries of concern.”   The Commerce Department rule, which will have a 30-day public comment period before implementation, focuses on “connected vehicles,” a reference to any internet-linking vehicle – car, bus, or truck – that uses network connections for roadside assistance or satellite communications.  The Biden administration also is issuing an analysis of expected costs for automakers and consumers associated with the proposed rule.  Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the new requirements were justified entirely on national security grounds:  “This is not about trade or economic advantage.”  New York Times CNN   Washington Post   South China Morning Post   Reuters

Iran Guard Corp halts members’ use of communications devices after attacks on Hezbollah.  Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has ordered members to cease use of communications devices in the wake of the attacks on Hezbollah fighters’ pagers and walkie-talkies.  Reuters cited an IRGC security official who said that a broad inspection is being carried out not only on the organization’s communications gear, but all equipment.  Most IRGC equipment, the official said, is either produced domestically or imported from China or Russia.  In addition, the IRGC is examining its own personnel for possible Israeli links.  The IRGC official said the review "includes scrutiny of their bank accounts both in Iran and abroad, as well as their travel history and that of their families."  While the equipment inspection is under way, according to the official, "we are using end-to-end encryption in messaging systems."  Stepped-up security measures extend to Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, Reuters reports.  The security official said, "there has never, ever been such tight security and extreme measures in place as there are now."  Reuters

UAE president’s meeting with Biden to focus on AI, technological partnerships.  In the meeting between President Joe Biden and the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Monday, one of the focal points will be the Gulf state’s plans for AI development.  Of particular interest will be the UAE’s relationship with China, which is described as “warm.”  The ties between the two countries have been one of the factors in restrictions on U.S. technology exports to the UAE.  However, the UAE’s technology company, G42, recently received a $1.5 billion investment from Microsoft.  In addition, G42 is partnering with the Nvidia AI chipmaker and employs supercomputers built by Cerebras Systems, a U.S. AI firm.  In response to U.S. concerns, G42 earlier this year began removing Chinese-made hardware and sold off Chinese investments.  Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told reporters in advance of Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s visit to the U.S., "we cannot let this sort of wave of technological breakthroughs pass by us and not be somehow in partnership with it."  The UAE president also will meet Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. business leaders.  In an interview over the summer, UAE Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence Omar Sultan Al Olama commented on U.S.-UAE ties, saying "there is the willingness for us to engage.  We haven't been shying away from our ambitions but we're going to do it in the right way. We're going to do it through partnership. We're going to do it through transparency."  Reuters

Taiwan, South Korean leading chipmakers considering large-scale facilities in UAE.  Executives of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) recently have visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for talks on construction of large-scale manufacturing facilities that could contribute to the Middle East becoming a pivotal player in the AI sector.  In addition, South Korea’s Samsung reportedly is considering major new chipmaking operations in the UAE following visits to the country.  Discussions with the UAE are described as being in the early stages.  Funding for the projects would come from the UAE through its sovereign development fund, Mubadala.  The projects under discussion for the UAE would aim at constructing a number of factories at an overall cost of more than $100 billion.  The sovereign wealth fund available to the UAE has an investment portfolio of $300 billion.  Among the obstacles to be resolved before any projects are attempted is the supply of super-clean water needed for silicon wafer production, with the UAE’s desalinated water requiring extensive purification.  Wall Street Journal

Ukraine reports Russia-linked hackers shifting to high-value military targets.  A new report from Ukraine’s cyber protection agency has found a “significant change” in Russian hacker cyberattacks over recent months.  Russia-linked hackers are now focusing on Ukrainian entities with direct connections to the war effort rather than indiscriminate destructive or espionage attacks on Ukrainian organizations. The report from Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP) observed that the shift in hacker tactics targets “areas critical to the success and support of their military operations.”  The report also notes that cyber incidents increased in the first half of 2024 by almost 20 percent compared to the same period in 2023.  Cyber incidents aimed at the security and defense sectors have more than doubled.  According to the SSSCIP report, hackers have turned increasingly to messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Signal to access military and government devices.  The attacks seek to steal passwords, gain access to accounts and files, and spread malware through phishing attacks.  Ukraine has attributed some of the attacks to groups affiliated with the Russian GRU and FSB intelligence agencies.  The Record

China says Taiwan-backed hackers attacking defense, critical sector websites. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) says it has identified a Taiwan Defense Ministry-backed hacking gang that is compromising websites on the mainland and in Hong Kong and Macau to “defame” Beijing’s political system.  An MSS WeChat post said the Anonymous64 hacking group is funded by “’Taiwan independence forces’” supported by the Taiwan Defense Ministry’s Communications and Electronic Force Command (ICEFCOM).  The MSS said ICEFCOM was “waging online ideological and public opinion battles against the mainland.”  An ICEFCOM spokesperson dismissed the allegations, describing the organization’s responsibilities as “providing defense information and maintaining cybersecurity.”  The MSS released screenshots of an “Anonymous64” X account which included posts claiming to have hacked Chinese university, hotel, and defense education websites and displaying comments critical of Beijing and the CCP.   The MSS described the ICEFCOM operation as focused on Chinese defense and military sectors along with aviation, aerospace, and energy firms with the goal of stealing “sensitive data and information and gather intelligence for the Taiwan authorities.”  According to the MSS, ICEFCOM tried to portray mainline cybersecurity as “extremely fragile” through its efforts to distort online public opinion and to “amplifying contradictions and instigating confrontation.”  South China Morning Post  Reuters

Chinese action to tighten dual-use export controls comes ‘just in time,’ expert says.  A researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says that Beijing imposed export controls on dual-use technologies and materials “just in time” to protect national interests.  Research fellow Lu Xiang said the newly shielded items included remote control technologies and raw materials.  The possible weaponization of technologies and materials underscores “the urgent need for more detailed and systematic management based on the national export control law.”  The State Council last week approved a “refined” regulation on dual-use goods exports to address “fragmented and imperfect” rules governing exports of nuclear technology, missiles, and biotechnology.  Lu explained that the new regulation will establish a traceable management framework for end users.  The regulation also seeks to enhance risk assessment of export destinations and to increase coordination of monitoring and early warning systems.  South China Morning Post

Chinese weapons firm says it has produced ‘kamikaze’ drone rivaling U.S. Switchblade.  China’s largest weapons manufacturer, Norinco, claims to have developed an ultra-long-range “kamikaze” drone that outperforms its closest U.S. competitor.  The unnamed loitering munition has a cruising speed of 90 mph with a range of 124 miles.  A competitor to the U.S.’ Switchblade 600, the Norinco platform was described in a peer-reviewed article in the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.  The research team said the drone was designed with the use of domestically-produced aerodynamic software that performed statistical simulations.  The team said the drone at first could only stay aloft for 79 minutes but through AI optimization, the cruising time was extended by more than a third.  The Norinco product features a folding two-blade propeller, which the design team “effectively extended their flight time.”  South China Morning Post

France claims world first satellite-to-ground station high-speed optical communication.  A collaboration between the French Defense Innovation Agency (AID) and Cailabs, a French tech firm, has resulted in the world’s first high-speed optical satellite communication between a nanosatellite and an optical ground station.  In a telephone interview with BreakingDefense, Cailabs CEO Jean-Francois Morizur said while space-earth laser links have been demonstrated in proof of concept efforts, the new achievement features a satellite-ground station linkage with “an actual product that exists and can be bought off-the-shelf.”  Morizur said Cailabs already has sold has “at least seven (systems) we’re allowed to talk about, to South Korea, Australia, Greece, France and the United States.”   The ground station’s large telescope, Morizur explained, enables the technological advance in the unique way it treats received light signals.  The project team maintained a stable laser link for several minutes that allowed it to track the nanosatellite low Earth orbit and to receive data from the satellite.  The French defense ministry described the advantages of the optical link as “its speed, discretion and independence from regulations that coordinate the use of radio waves.”  Even if the optical link experiences atmospheric disruptions, the ministry added, “the Keraunos satellite is able to circumvent them in order to achieve optimum transmission quality.”  Jonathan Galic, technology director at Unseenlabs, the project’s satellite vendor, said “the combination of the performances of (our) satellites with the optical innovations of Cailabs opens the way to faster and more secure communications.”  BreakingDefense

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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