Report for Tuesday, September 17, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Netanyahu mulls dumping Israel’s defense minister

Biden’s national security team have no imminent plan to update Gaza ceasefire proposal

One million dead or injured in the Russia-Ukraine War

NATO chief says each country must decide if Ukraine can use its long-range missiles on Russia

Putin demands Russian army increase by 180,000 troops, bringing total up to 1.5 million

U.S. military concludes departure from Niger

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Ukraine Conference Urges World to Catch Up to ‘Frontline Time’  The Cipher Brief

The Pentagon’s ‘Rare Earth’ Problem is a China Problem, Too  The Cipher Brief

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Netanyahu mulls dumping Israel’s popular centrist defense minister.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly considering firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a retired general highly regarded among Israel’s centrists and intellectuals, as well as inside the Biden White House, State Department and Pentagon.  Israeli financial markets sagged with the news and the shekel weakened.  Netanyahu has been under pressure from far-right coalition partners to replace Gallant with Gideon Saar, a member of the opposition. The divisive move would add to Israelis’ anxieties over the prospect of all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu and Gallant have frequently clashed over many issues, notably, the Gaza war and Netanyahu’s failure to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the hostages.  "Instead of the prime minister being busy with victory over Hamas, returning the hostages, with the war against Hezbollah and allowing (evacuated) residents of the north to return to their homes, he is busy with despicable political dealings and replacing the defense minister," centrist lawmaker Benny Gantz wrote on social media. Reuters  

Sinwar threatens long war in Gaza.   Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar issued a defiant statement Monday, saying "we have prepared ourselves to fight a long battle of attrition." Sinwar’s rare message came as fighting killed at least two dozen Gazans Monday, according to Palestinian officials. Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan, echoing Sinwar, told AFP that "the recruitment of new generations" could replace fighters killed by Israel. In a message to Yemen's Houthis, Sinwar said that Iran-aligned groups in Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq would "break the will of Israel."    Meanwhile, on Israel’s northern border, Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said Saturday his group has "no intention of going to war," but if Israel does "unleash" one, "there will be large losses on both sides." France24  

Biden’s national security team have no imminent plan to update Gaza ceasefire proposal.  Senior administration officials told CNN that President Joe Biden’s national security advisors have no imminent plan to present a new, updated proposal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, suggesting negotiations have seriously stalled. Despite recent reports of a bridging proposal being finalized, the officials said the advisors are not confident that Hamas would be willing to agree to an updated proposal. A key issue is the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages; Hamas wants life-sentence prisoners released in exchange for civilian hostages, which is a change from earlier discussions about such prisoners being released in exchange for Israeli soldiers. Officials largely blamed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for the impasse, and there is growing doubt over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political willingness to end the war, seen in his demand for Israeli control over the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza.  CNN

Gaza polio vaccination campaign has reached 90% of children.  The head of the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency said Monday that polio vaccinations in Gaza have reached 90% of children. The campaign aims to vaccinate 640,000 children under 10 against polio began on Sept. 1.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

One Million Are Now Dead or Injured in the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russia-Ukraine war has resulted in approximately one million casualties, with both nations facing severe demographic challenges due to high losses and shrinking prewar populations. A confidential Ukrainian estimate earlier this year put the number of dead soldiers at 80,000 and wounded at 400,000.  Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000. The losses are more damaging for Ukraine, with a population less than one-quarter the size of its giant neighbor. Russia’s invasions and capture of Ukrainian territory over the past decade have caused Ukraine to lose at least 10 million people under occupation or as refugees; Ukraine’s population has dropped to 25-27 million. Ukraine’s birthrate is collapsing. One of the reasons President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men between 18 and 25 is that most of these people haven’t had children yet. The average age of Ukraine’s fighters is 43. Meanwhile, Russia faces labor shortages, worsened by the flight of at least 600,000 people since the full-scale invasion in 2022. Determining the number of dead and wounded is difficult, with Russia and Ukraine declining to release official estimates or putting out figures that are widely mistrusted. The civilian death toll remains unknown. Wall Street Journal

EU plans to raise up to €40 billion in loans for Ukraine without US. The European Union is preparing to raise up to €40 billion in new loans for Ukraine by the end of 2024, as a G7 plan to use frozen Russian assets has stalled due to Hungary’s obstruction. Hungary has delayed extending sanctions on Russian assets until after the U.S. presidential election, complicating U.S. participation. To bypass Hungary’s veto, the EU plans to proceed with majority support and is considering expanding an existing aid program. The funds are intended to aid the financial stability of Ukraine, which faces a $38 billion financing gap in 2025. Financial Times

US reassures, but sense of urgency questioned by Ukraine as $6 billion military aid hangs in the balance. Ukraine is concerned about $6 billion in U.S. military aid that may expire by the end of September if Congress doesn't act. This aid, part of a $61 billion package approved in April after a long delay, is critical to Ukraine's fight against Russia. Congress must extend the Pentagon’s authority to send weapons or find alternative solutions to use the aid. While U.S. officials are confident the funds won’t be lost, President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed frustration over delays and called for prompt action. Kyiv Independent

US military aid packages to Ukraine shrink amid concerns over Pentagon stockpiles. U.S. military aid to Ukraine has decreased recently due to dwindling Pentagon stockpiles and concerns over U.S. military readiness, even though $6 billion is still available in funding. While the U.S. ramps up production of key items like 155mm shells, meeting Ukraine’s urgent needs will take time. The U.S. produces 40,000 shells monthly, aiming for 100,000 by next year. Ukraine has felt the impact, with President Volodymyr Zelensky expressing frustration over slow air defense deliveries. The Biden administration continues to send aid packages, but smaller and less frequent than in previous years. CNN

Scholz Stands By Ukraine Support Despite Kazakh Leader's Claim Russia 'Cannot Be Defeated.' During his Monday meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Astana, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Tokayev stated, "Russia cannot be defeated in the military sense." Tokayev urged support for peace plans from China and Brazil. Scholz disagreed, emphasizing that Germany supports Ukraine's defense due to Russia's unprovoked aggression. The discussion took place during Scholz’s trip to Central Asia. Kazakhstan has attempted to maintain a neutral stance on the war, balancing relations with Russia and the West. RFE/RL Kyiv Independent Reuters

Ukraine invites UN and ICRC to Russia's Kursk region.Ukraine has requested the United Nations and International Committee of the Red Cross to assist humanitarian efforts in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha emphasized Ukraine's commitment to humanitarian law and providing safe passage for civilians. The Ukrainian army remains in the region after capturing 100 settlements, although Russia claims to have retaken several villages. Moscow dismissed the request as "provocative" and expects the organizations to reject the invitations. The ICRC's president is in Moscow. Meanwhile, a recent Russian shelling killed three ICRC workers in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Reuters

Moscow says it has retaken two Kursk towns. The Kremlin claims to have regained control of Uspenovka and Borki in Kursk, though this remains unverified. Russia maintains its counteroffensive in Kursk is progressing, claiming its forces have recaptured 10 settlements taken by Ukrainian forces since their August offensive. Deutsche Welle

If Russians occupy Pokrovsk, it will hit Ukraine's economy. Metinvest CEO Yurii Ryzhenkov warned that if Russians occupy Pokrovsk, it will hurt Ukraine’s economy, as the city houses the largest coking coal producer, Pokrovsk Coal Group (PCG). While Metinvest has contingency plans, including sourcing coal from DTEK, Poland, and its U.S. mines, losing Pokrovsk would increase production costs and reduce output. This could lead to a decline in Ukraine's metallurgical production and tax revenues, compounding the economic losses already suffered from the war.  Ukrainska Pravda

NATO's Stoltenberg says each country must decide if Ukraine can use its long-range missiles on Russia.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that decisions on allowing Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles, like U.S. ATACMS or British Storm Shadows, against Russia must be made by individual allies. Ukrainian President Zelensky has urged for their use to limit Moscow’s attack capabilities. Stoltenberg emphasized that while no option in war is risk-free, the greater risk would be if Russia wins in Ukraine. U.S. officials remain divided on the effectiveness of such strikes. Reuters

NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg on the Future of Russia’s War in Ukraine. In an exit interview, outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reflects on key issues shaping the alliance. He stresses Ukraine's right to self-defense, including the use of long-range missiles against Russian targets, and advocates for fewer restrictions on Western-supplied weaponry. Stoltenberg dismisses Russia’s nuclear threats, emphasizing that NATO can support Ukraine without becoming a direct party to the war. He also highlights growing cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, which supplies Russia with weapons. Stoltenberg believes NATO must adopt a global approach to security, though it remains a regional alliance focused on protecting its members. Foreign Policy

Russia Ramps Up Air Assault on Ukrainian Cities.Ukrainian authorities said Monday they repelled a massive Russian drone attack on Kyiv, the eighth in just over two weeks. Nearly two dozen drones were shot down around the capital, with 53 out of 56 drones intercepted overnight. One civilian was injured, but no major damage was reported. Russia has intensified assaults on Kyiv and other cities, including Kharkiv, where a Sunday strike killed one and injured over 40. Meanwhile, fierce fighting continues in the Kursk region, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces making gains and counterattacks. New York Times 

Russia launches missiles at energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Sumy region. Russian forces launched missiles Tuesday at energy infrastructure in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region following a drone strike overnight. The attacks caused power outages affecting over 281,000 consumers. Authorities resorted to backup power systems, and no casualties were reported. Ukraine's air defenses downed 34 of 51 drones launched by Russia. Reuters

Russia reportedly executes POW with sword, Kyiv appeals to UN, Red Cross. On Tuesday, Ukraine's Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations over a photo allegedly showing the execution of a Ukrainian POW by Russia. The photo, showing a soldier with a sword in his chest and "For Kursk" inscribed, has not been verified. Ukraine's Prosecutor General is investigating 28 cases involving the execution of 62 POWs. Another alleged execution video surfaced in early September, showing a Russian soldier shooting a Ukrainian. Kyiv Independent

US called out China for supporting Russia in Ukraine, says Pentagon.During a meeting in Beijing last weekend, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Chase warned Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun about "China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base" in the Ukraine war. Chase highlighted the effect of this support on European and transatlantic security. The talks, held alongside the Xiangshan Forum, also addressed "aggressive" Chinese actions in the South China Sea and reaffirmed U.S. defense commitments in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. has criticized China for supporting Russia’s defense industrial base amid its invasion of Ukraine. South China Morning Post

Russia continues to store ammunition, deploy troops at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Kyiv says. Russian forces continue to store ammunition and deploy troops at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported on Sept. 15. Around 1,300 Russian personnel, including special units, are stationed there. Weapons and explosives are stored in technical areas, heightening nuclear safety risks. Ukraine criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for not addressing the military presence during a recent visit by IAEA director Rafael Grossi to the plant earlier in September. Kyiv Independent

Estonian President Karis: We have to cross all ‘red lines,’ then start forcing Russia out of Ukraine.  Estonian President Alar Karis emphasized that NATO allies must do more to support Ukraine, including allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory without restrictions. He stated that Russia has already crossed all "red lines" and that peace can only be achieved on Ukrainian terms. Karis also stressed that Estonia is well-prepared for Russian aggression and highlighted Estonia’s strong support for Ukraine due to its own history with Soviet occupation. He dismissed Russian nuclear threats as unlikely and reaffirmed the importance of a united transatlantic defense against Moscow. Kyiv Independent

Unmanned Systems Forces have become a separate branch of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law establishing the Unmanned Systems Forces as a separate branch of Ukraine's Armed Forces. This new branch, announced in February 2024, will focus on drone operations, providing technical support, training specialists, and enhancing Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities. The formation of the Unmanned Systems Forces reflects Ukraine's shift from traditional military approaches to modern warfare strategies. Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vadym Sukharevskyi leads this force, which aims to integrate and advance Ukraine’s unmanned systems in ongoing military operations. Militarnyi

Inside the U.S. city churning out Ukrainian weapons. The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania has ramped up production of 155mm howitzer rounds, crucial for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, U.S. production has increased from 14,000 to 36,000 shells monthly, boosting local jobs and the economy. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Morning Edition that Ukraine receives around 90,000 artillery shells a month. However, Ukraine still faces a significant artillery shortage, as Russia produces 250,000 shells monthly. Ukrainian forces need more ammunition to keep pace.  National Public Radio

Germany pledges an additional 100 million euros in winter aid for Ukraine. During a visit to Moldova on Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that Germany will provide an additional 100 million euros in winter aid to Ukraine. Baerbock warned that Russia is planning another "winter war" aimed at worsening living conditions in Ukraine by targeting energy infrastructure. This aid comes as Kyiv faces challenges securing power during winter due to frequent Russian attacks on power stations. Reuters

Ukraine will receive another batch of Danish F-16s this year. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced that Denmark will deliver another batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in the second half of 2024. This follows Denmark's pledge to provide 19 F-16s in total. Ukraine received its first F-16s in July 2024 as part of a coalition effort involving Denmark, the Netherlands, and other partners. Kyiv has already used the jets to intercept Russian attacks, with one F-16 lost during a mission. Kyiv Independent

Ukrainian farm holding closes silos, cuts staff due to war, weather impact. Prometey, a major farm holding in southern Ukraine, is closing three of its 28 grain silos and cutting staff due to economic challenges caused by the Russian invasion and extreme weather. Located in southern regions hardest hit by record heat and drought, the company has also lost seven silos and 2,000 hectares of land to Russian occupation. Prometey cultivates over 20,000 hectares, but poor harvests, particularly for soybeans, lentils, and sunflowers, have forced it to consider further drastic measures to survive. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, September 16, 2024. Ukraine faces manpower shortages but continues to struggle with delays in Western military aid, limiting its ability to equip necessary combat units. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk forced Russia to redirect resources, though Ukraine still needs Western permission to strike inside Russia. Russia is expanding its long-term military capacity, aiming for a force of 1.5 million combat personnel by 2024. Iran is preparing for potential nuclear weapon development while signaling openness to resume negotiations with the West. Corruption investigations in Russia's Ministry of Defense are ongoing as leadership seeks to curb internal mismanagement.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Glushkovsky Raion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recaptured territory there. Ukrainian forces regained territory near Kharkiv City and Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: IMF's trip to Moscow is effectively enabling Russia's war against Ukraine. Tymofiy Mylovanov and Nataliia Shapoval criticize the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for sending its first mission to Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They argue that by re-engaging with Moscow, the IMF is enabling Russia's war and undermining international sanctions. The authors call this move a diplomatic win for the Kremlin, framing it as complicity rather than neutrality. They emphasize that the IMF’s actions contradict its mandate of promoting global economic stability while ignoring Russia’s destabilizing aggression. Kyiv Independent

THE AMERICAS

Suspect behind Trump assassination attempt, Ryan Routh, charged with gun crimes.  Ryan Routh, the 58-year-old man arrested after allegedly attempting to assassinate former President Donald Trump at his West Palm Beach golf course, was charged with gun-related crimes in a Florida court on Monday. Routh was found hiding in shrubbery with a rifle near the golf course while Trump played nearby, although he never had the GOP nominee in his line of sight and did not fire any shots. Secret Service agents opened fire upon spotting Routh’s rifle, but the suspect fled and was later arrested with a stolen license plate on his vehicle. Routh, a convicted felon with prior gun offenses, was charged with firearm possession and possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number. It is not yet clear how the North-Carolina born suspect knew Trump would be at the golf course, as his visit to the area was not on his public schedule. It is believed that he remained at the golf course for around 12 hours before the shooting. Trump blamed Democratic leaders for the incident, citing inflammatory rhetoric, though no motive has been confirmed by authorities. President Biden condemned the act and spoke with Trump, expressing relief that he was unharmed. The Secret Service is under scrutiny following this incident, which comes just months after a previous attempt on Trump’s life in July. Reuters Wall Street Journal BBC Al Jazeera 

Harris and Trump each present uncertain foreign policy paths. It is a challenge to determine exactly how foreign policy will play out under either candidate for the U.S. presidency, as both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have avoided detailed foreign policy stances. Analysts predict rising U.S.-China tensions no matter the election outcome, with Harris expected to continue Biden’s cautious policies, and Trump likely to escalate his hardline position. Some experts predict heightened tensions in the event of a Trump administration, but the situation is unlikely to ameliorate significantly either way the pendulum swings. The candidates’ debate largely sidestepped foreign policy, but both addressed economic rivalry with Beijing. Trump favors aggressive tariffs, while Harris supports maintaining alliances like the Quad and continuing tech restrictions on China. Trump is more skeptical of multilateralism and alliances, and Harris is likely to uphold Biden's international coalitions. Analysts remain divided on whether Beijing prefers Trump or Harris for geopolitical reasons. Read more in The Cipher Brief about how Harris and Trump would deal with global hot zones. South China Morning Post The Cipher Brief The Cipher Brief

A string of cases fuels concerns over China’s political meddling in the West. Several recent cases of Chinese interference in Western democracies highlight growing concerns about Beijing’s influence on political systems abroad. Traditionally, China’s campaigns abroad revolved around uncovering industrial and technological secrets in sectors like telecommunications, aviation, or the military. But new operations often involve recruiting members of Chinese diaspora communities to infiltrate power structures, promote pro-China narratives, and suppress dissidents. One prominent case involves Linda Sun, a former senior aide in the New York governor’s office, who was charged with using her position to benefit China. Beijing’s intelligence work has increasingly focused on influencing political discourse in Western countries on issues like Taiwan and human rights. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, these efforts have intensified, reflecting a strategy to exploit divisions within democratic societies and use overseas Chinese communities to further the country’s global agenda. Analysts warn that this pattern of interference will likely increase as relations between China and the West continue to deteriorate. Many countries, however, remain divided on how to effectively counter these efforts without fueling racism or alienating Chinese diaspora communities. New York Times

As strike enters fourth day, Boeing pauses hiring, mulls temporary furloughs. Boeing froze hiring and is considering temporary suspensions as over 30,000 workers continued their strike into its fourth day on Monday, severely disrupting production of its 737 series jets. The strike, which has been supported by 96% of union members, sheds light on widespread worker dissatisfaction with the embattled plane maker’s recent wage offers, including a proposed 25% pay raise over four years. The union rejected that proposal, having initially asked for a 40% increase and the restoration of a pension plan. The work stoppage threatens Boeing's recovery and financial stability, with the company already burdened by $60 billion in debt and ongoing safety concerns. Boeing's CFO, Brian West, stressed the need to preserve cash and protect the company’s future, pausing supplier orders for most programs. The cuts range from a pause on hiring to a ban on non-essential and first-and business-class travel. The company stands to lose up to $102 million in daily revenue and could cut 33-35 jets from its production plan. Union leaders are negotiating with Boeing and federal mediators, but workers expect the strike to last weeks, as past labor disputes have. Reuters BBC CNN 

Pakistani national with Iran-ties pleads not guilty to assassination plot charges in Brooklyn court. Asif Merchant, a 46-year-old Pakistani man with suspected ties to Iran, on Monday pleaded not guilty to charges related to a scheme to assassinate an American politician in response to the 2020 killing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander, Qassem Soleimani. Merchant faces charges of attempting to commit terrorism and murder for hire. U.S. prosecutors claim he spent time in Iran and traveled to the U.S. to enlist people for the plot. He also allegedly stole documents and organized protests. Former President Donald Trump was mentioned as a potential target, but there was no concrete assassination plan against him, and no attacks occurred. Merchant was arrested in Texas in July and is being held at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center. Iran's UN mission has denied any involvement in the situation, stating that the alleged plot does not align with Tehran's policy of legally pursuing justice for Soleimani's death. Reuters France 24 

U.N. mission report finds Venezuela expanded repression over election. A U.N. fact-finding mission released a report on Tuesday assessing that the Venezuelan regime "dramatically intensified" repression following the nation’s disputed presidential election. The report, which was commissioned by the U.N.-backed Human Rights Council, describes how authorities sought to destabilize and disband the opposition, suppress independent information, and hinder peaceful protests in a calculated effort. Marta Valinas, chair of the mission, said the state's “repressive machinery” came in response to critical views and dissent. President Nicolas Maduro was declared the election winner, but Venezuela’s opposition claimed fraud and said opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won. After protests erupted nationwide, 25 people were killed, mostly from gunshot wounds, and 2,400 were arrested. The U.N. report highlighted the effort of Maduro’s government to create fear and suppress opposition, implicating state authorities in enforcing these measures. It also noted the rise in "forced disappearances" and torture allegations since 2019. Reuters Associated Press 

EUROPE

Putin demands Russian army increase by 180,000 troops, bringing total up to 1.5 million.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered Russia’s military to expand by 180,000 troops, an upsurge that would bring its total personnel up to nearly 2.4 million, with 1.5 million active combat troops. This is the third expansion of Russia’s military since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The increase will take effect in December. The decision comes in the wake of Kyiv's recent attack on Russia's southern Kursk region; Moscow has since been intensifying efforts to push back Ukrainian forces in both Kursk and the eastern Donbas region. Previous troop expansions included a 137,000 increase in August 2022 and a partial mobilization in September 2022, which recruited 300,000 military reservists. The mobilization sparked protests and pushed many Russians to flee the country, particularly from ethnic minority regions. In December 2023, Putin ordered an additional 170,000 troops, bringing the total to 1.32 million at that time. The Kremlin's official casualty figures remain unclear, with the last update in September 2022 reporting 5,937 deaths. However, Ukrainian and Western estimates put the number much higher, suggesting over 610,000 casualties. Russia's daily casualty rate is expected to remain high as it continues operations across various fronts. Reuters CNN Al Jazeera The Moscow Times Associated Press 

Sweden boosting defense spending by $1.3 billion.  Sweden is increasing its defense spending by 13 billion crowns ($1.3 billion) in its 2025 state budget, bringing it to a total of 138 billion crowns, according to Defense Minister Pal Jonson. He added that military spending will increase from 2.2% GDP to 2.4% this year and is projected to reach 2.6% in 2028. The increase comes after Sweden joined NATO in March.  Reuters

Experts analyze impact of Germany’s decision to begin border checks. Migration experts are concerned about the efficacy of Germany’s reintroduction of border checks, warning that these checks could result in racial profiling. Berlin expanded these measures along its border with France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Denmark as part of a six-month effort to counter irregular migration and potential Islamist threats. While officials claim the checks are effective, migration experts suggest the moves are largely symbolic and may not have a lasting impact, as smuggling rings often adapt by finding new routes. Critics also argue that processing asylum claims at the E.U.'s external borders would be a more sustainable solution. The new border controls primarily target asylum seekers from neighboring E.U. countries under the Dublin rules, which require asylum applications to be processed in the first E.U. country of entry. However, experts point out that only 30% of asylum applications in Germany fall under these rules. The reintroduced controls have faced criticism from neighboring countries, as well as from pro-asylum activists, for undermining the bloc's principle of free movement. Concerns have also been raised about racial profiling, though the German government insists that any racially motivated actions by police are not permitted. Reuters

U.S. hands down sanctions, visa bans on Georgians over crackdowns on protests. The U.S. on Monday imposed new sanctions and visa bans on Georgian officials and pro-Russian figures involved in severe clampdowns on protests in the transcontinental nation. The sanctions target two government officials, Zviad Kharazishvili and Mileri Lagazauri, who led security forces that brutally suppressed demonstrators as they protested against a controversial "foreign agent" law passed by Georgia’s parliament in May. The U.S. Treasury Department stated that Kharazishvili was directly involved in the abuse and beatings of protesters. Two pro-Russian media figures, Konstantine Morgoshia and Zurab Makharadze, were also sanctioned for spreading disinformation and hate speech. The State Department imposed additional visa restrictions on over 60 Georgians, including business chiefs, government officials and law enforcement, for undermining democracy. Reuters Politico 

Iran’s Pezeshkian set to attend BRICS summit in Russia’s Kazan. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Russia’s city of Kazan, held from October 22-24. He will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the two leaders may sign a bilateral cooperation agreement. The visit comes amid mounting military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently revealing that Russia had acquired ballistic missiles from Iran, which are likely to be used in Ukraine. Last Tuesday, the U.S. and European nations imposed new sanctions on Iran over the missile transfer. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied that Tehran is making missile deliveries and criticized the new sanctions. Politico Reuters 

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iranian President claims Tehran hasn’t made weapons transfers to Russia since he assumed duties. Iran’s newly-elected President Masud Pezeshkian asserted that Tehran has not transferred weapons to Russia since he became president in late July. During his first official press conference on Monday, he added that he remains firm on continuing Iran's missile program, in spite of Western sanctions. Pezeshkian also indicated potential openness to direct talks with the U.S. on nuclear issues, but only if Washington ends its “hostility toward us by showing their goodwill in practice." He went so far as to say, “we are brothers with the Americans as well." The 69-year-old former heart surgeon stressed that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons, and blamed the White House’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal for forcing Tehran to increase uranium enrichment. Pezeshkian also addressed domestic concerns, promising to ensure that the morality police would not "bother" women, though it remains unclear how much influence he has over this. He denied recent claims that Iran has sent hypersonic missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and defended Iran's missile program as essential for regional security. He also condemned Israel's military actions in Gaza. RFE/RL

What Iranian President Pezeshkian has to show after seven weeks in office.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has had a turbulent first month and a half in office, dealing with escalating tensions with Israel and a series of domestic challenges. Shortly after Pezeshkian’s inauguration, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, an act blamed on Israel. While Iran has vowed retaliation, it has yet to respond militarily, likely to avoid sparking a regional conflict. Pezeshkian has underscored Iran's commitment to the Palestinian cause and backed military action against Israel, while also pushing for stability and the lifting of U.S. sanctions to ease the country's economic isolation. Domestically, Pezeshkian's cabinet choices stirred controversy, as many of his appointees were from previous hardline governments, disappointing reformist supporters. Yet he did secure full parliamentary approval for his cabinet, a rare achievement. As for foreign affairs, Pezeshkian appointed Abbas Araghchi as foreign minister, who has signaled a willingness to engage with the West on nuclear negotiations. At the same time, Pezeshkian's government has pledged to continue supporting regional allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, emphasizing a "limitless support" for the "axis of resistance." The new president has also faced accusations from the West of supplying missiles to Russia for the war in Ukraine, which Tehran denies. Pezeshkian's government will need to navigate these challenges while managing tensions at home and abroad. Al Jazeera 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Sightings of China’s Type 094 nuclear subs in the Taiwan Strait reveal much. Recent sightings of China's Type 094 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in the Taiwan Strait suggest that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s nuclear submarine technology and missile systems have reached a high level of maturity. These sightings, reported by the military magazine Ordnance Industry Science Technology, indicate that China has at least two SSBNs with four crews on constant alert as a nuclear deterrent. The most recent sighting occurred in June 2024, when a Type 094 submarine was spotted by Taiwanese fishermen near the strait’s median line. The pattern of surfacing in the strategic waterway suggests that Beijing's SSBNs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are now fully operational and capable of conducting combat missions, a technological capability that was previously only held by Washington and Moscow. It is possible that the PLA is using the Taiwan Strait route to shorten trips for maintenance and also as a show of force. A 2023 Pentagon report on the Chinese military states that the superpower operates at least six Type 094 submarines, each equipped with nuclear-capable JL-2 and JL-3 missiles, which have ranges of 7,000 km and over 10,000 km, respectively, making the U.S. mainland reachable from Chinese waters. These submarines are central to China’s nuclear deterrent strategy. South China Morning Post

Chinese joint drone-fighter missions may stem from Ukraine ‘lessons learned’.  Citing a lesson “learned from the Ukraine war,” Chinese state television (CCTV) on Sunday aired video of WZ-7 reconnaissance drones working in concert with crewed fighter jets.  A People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer commented on the broadcast that unmanned platforms like the WZ-7 have unique advantages over crewed aircraft, including “survivability, battle loss ratio, and cost-effectiveness.”  The CCTV coverage shows the drone performing reconnaissance flights over water followed by a fighter launching anti-ship missiles guided by data provided by the drone.  The exercise location and time were not identified.  The WZ-7 was first introduced in 2021 as a long-endurance high altitude drone.  With a 78-foot wingspan and 46-foot length, the platform compares to the U.S. Global Hawk drone.  Retired PLA Col. Yue Gang pointed to the comparative edge drones offer over satellite reconnaissance:   “The information-gathering methods through satellites do not have real-time capability, while through the cooperation of WZ-7 and crewed aircraft, it will be possible to strike the discovered targets immediately without giving the enemy time to react.”  Yue added that incorporating the WZ-7 into missions with fighter aircraft may have been prompted by Russia’s difficulty in targeting highly maneuverable Patriot missile and Himars rocket launchers in Ukraine.  WZ-7 spy drones were spotted in the Taiwan Strait in 2019 and over waters between southwestern Okinawa and Miyako Islands in January last year.  South China Morning Post

Seasoned Afghan warlord Dostum wants to form government to challenge Taliban. Abdul Rashid Dostum, a hardened Afghan warlord and former politician, has called for opposition groups to unite and form a government-in-exile to challenge the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan. Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek known for his role as a military leader, made this appeal during a virtual meeting with a Turkish-based Afghan resistance group on Sunday. He has a history of involvement in factional fighting and previously held key positions, including deputy defense minister, under the former U.N.-backed Afghan government. Dostum, who has faced accusations of human rights abuses, has long opposed the Taliban and stated last year that his forces were ready to confront the group if the international community deemed it necessary. He narrowly survived a Taliban attack in 2019 and has been on the group's hit list since then. RFE/RL

AFRICA

U.S. military concludes departure from Niger. The U.S. military announced on Monday that it had concluded withdrawing from Niger, after the West African nation’s military leaders demanded the departure of American troops following the 2023 military coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. The “safe, orderly, and responsible” withdrawal was completed by September 15, 2024, as confirmed by the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). U.S. forces had been in Niger as part of anti-jihadist operations across the volatile Sahel, particularly at bases in Niamey and Agadez, which supported air surveillance missions. They also helped to train the nation’s forces, backing “partner-led counterterrorism missions” for years, according to AFRICOM. In the wake of the coup, Niger’s new regime began to align more with Russia, which provided military support, while pushing out Western forces, including the French and the American military. Despite the withdrawal, Washington expressed its openness to future security cooperation with Niger, though the country's new government has moved in the opposite direction by fostering closer ties with Russia and Iran. France 24 Reuters CNN 

Mali says capital under control after insurgent attack.  Mali said Tuesday that its capital Bamako was under control after an early morning attack by insurgents against a gendarmerie training school and other “sensitive points” of the city. The Malian army said it pushed back the “terrorists” responsible for the attacks and that “mopping-up operations are currently underway.” The gendarmerie school is in southeastern Bamako, near the main international airport. Mali continues to deal with militant violence and jihadist attacks.  Reuters

CYBER & TECH

China-backed hackers reportedly breach networks of Pacific Islands organization.  Suspected Chinese-backed hackers reportedly compromised IT systems of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Secretariat.  The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported that Australian cyber specialists have been sent to help investigate the attack on the PIF, which operates from Fiji.  The secretary general of the regional diplomatic body, Baron Waqa, has confirmed “a cybersecurity incident here this year.”   He declined to identify the threat actor involved in the incident as a forensic report is being completed.  Earlier this year, China protested a PIF reference in a meeting communique to Taiwan as a “developing partner.”  ABC reports that an “extensive” cyber breach occurred in February, months before the PIF meeting, and exposed operational information about the PIF and communications between the secretariat and member states.  China rejected the ABC account.  ABC also has reported that Australia has deployed cyber specialists “at least half a dozen times” elsewhere in the region this year.  Earlier this year, officials from Palau expressed suspicions that a recent ransomware attack was a cover for other cyber operations by Chinese hackers.  The Record Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Treasury announces new sanctions against Intellexa spyware executives, affiliate.  Fresh sanctions were issued Monday by the Treasury Department on the Intellexa Consortium, which developed and marketed the Predator spyware.  Five individuals and a corporate entity behind the spyware’s proliferation were named in the sanctions.  These measures add to the sanctions announced in March, implicating Predator in targeting U.S. government officials, journalists, and others.  An administration official described the move as “the next step in our continued effort to deny problematic vendors safe haven across jurisdictions and also demonstrate that there will be accountability measures regardless of corporate structures and shell games that they may be playing.”   According to an official speaking to reporters, Intellexa and other firms are “struggling to move their money around” because of the sanctions.  Other signs of success against spyware vendors, the official said, include their concern over potential visa bans as well as the reluctance of some cyber specialists to work in the commercial spyware sector.  CyberScoop

Ransomware gang posts images of Port of Seattle stolen data, demands bitcoin payoff.  The ransomware gang responsible for a cyberattack on the Port of Seattle on Monday posted a demand for a 100 bitcoin payoff – approximately $5.9 million — alongside images of documents claimed to have been seized during the system compromises.  The images appear to be a U.S. passport, tax identification forms, and other personal identifiable information (PIF).  The gang says it will sell the extracted data within seven days if the ransom is not paid.  The port and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport earlier said they refuse to pay the ransom and warned that “the actor may respond by posting data they claim to have stolen on their dark web site.”  The amount and type of data stolen as a result of the breach has not been disclosed although the port disclosed the ransomware attack was linked to the Rhysida group, a ransomware-as-a-service operation that offers a platform to conduct attacks in exchange for a split of proceeds.  A port statement indicated that the majority of affected systems have been brought back online while work continues to restore its external website and internal portals.  CyberScoop TechCrunch

North Korean Lazarus Group has $5 million in stablecoin frozen after investigation.  Almost $5 million in funds of North Korea’s Lazarus Group hackers have been frozen by stablecoin vendors as the result of research by blockchain investigator ZachXBT.  ZachXBT says that the frozen stablecoins will be returned to victims following completion of legal procedures.  In making the announcement, ZachXBT criticized the Circle issuer for being slow to act in freezing the illicit funds.  ZachXBT’s investigation traced stolen funds to peer-to-peer marketplaces where the Lazarus Group reportedly exchanged crypto for fiat currency.  ZachXBT’s research revealed that North Korea has laundered more than $200 million from hacking operations.  Cybernews

New Dutch restrictions on ASML licenses pose challenge to Chinese chip makers.  Dutch government restrictions on servicing of its equipment in Chinese semiconductor factories could trigger significant production problems, according to sources.  Earlier this month the Netherlands foreign trade and development minister announced that ASML will be required to obtain licenses to sell certain deep ultraviolet gear to China and for maintenance services, spare parts, and software update for Chinese clients.  A source familiar with ASML operations said there could be “huge” repercussions in the short-term for Chinese chip makers losing access to servicing.  Paul Van Gerven, editor of a Dutch tech magazine, said that existing licenses granted to blacklisted Chinese companies will not be renewed, and future license applications will be blocked.  Van Gerven added, “should the Dutch start pushing back, the U.S. will most likely introduce additional restrictions of its own.”  South China Morning Post

China industry ministry tells chip sector to use improved domestic lithography gear.  The Chinese industry ministry has advised state-backed chipmaking firms to transition to new laser-based immersion lithography equipment featuring 65nm resolution, a substantial improvement over earlier 90nm gear.  The improved standard reported last week by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) indicates that domestic alternative lithography equipment production is beginning to show results in developing more advanced machines.   Companies like Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Group (SMEE) are pushing ahead with development efforts to compete with global leaders like ASML.   ASML’s best lithography machines now have a resolution of roughly 8nm.  The MIIT advisory note also identified a range of domestically produced chip gear it recommends for wider use, including oxidation furnaces and dry-etching gear.  SMEE reportedly developed a lithography machine capable of producing 28nm chips although it is unknown if that equipment has gone into production.  South China Morning Post

Sensitive health information of 1 million clients exposed in U.K. ransomware attack.  The personal information of almost one million clients of Britain’s National Health System (NHS) has been exposed following a ransomware attack on NHS hospitals in London earlier this year.  An analysis by CaseMatrix, which supports claimants in data breach lawsuits, shows that in addition to names, dates of birth, and NHS numbers, the exposed data includes some pathology and histology forms often describing symptoms of intimate and private medical conditions.  The health related data that the Qilin ransomware gang published in June include details of symptoms for sensitive medical conditions that patients may not yet know have been exposed.  Neither NHS nor Synnovis, a pathology service provider responsible for protecting patient information, have offered their own estimates of affected individuals.  Synnovis provided a statement to Recorded Future News describing the investigation as “advanced and ongoing” in an effort to identify “to what extent any patient or employee data is affected.”  The cyberattack has led to sharply reduced blood stocks across Britain, with some hospitals considering restrictions on transfusions for all but the most critical patients.  The Record

German radio blames Russian hackers for ransomware attack disrupting operations.  A local German radio station has attributed a ransomware attack over the weekend that forced it to play backup music to “unknown attackers from Russia.”  According to Radio Geretsried, the hacking attack resulted in the encryptions of all the station’s music files.  The attackers “are demanding a large ransom from the station.”  While staff try to restore systems, the station is streaming music from “emergency tape” with disruptions likely to continue through the middle of the week.  According to Germany’s Federal Office for Information Security (BSI), ransomware extortion targeting the private and public sectors “is the fastest growing area of cybercrime and is now a major problem.”  The Record

REPORT INFO

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell and Ethan Masucol contributed to this report.

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