Report for Tuesday, October 22, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Blinken heads back to Israel hoping to restart Gaza deal talks

US consults allies about North Korean troops in Ukraine.

Zelensky says the US will provide Ukraine with $800 million for drone production

Haitian police embroiled in fighting with gang coalition attempting to seize capital

Putin hosts BRICS summit in Russia under the shadow of Ukraine war

Russia launches probe into reported downing of cargo jet in Sudan’s Darfur

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

US Cyber Official Warns of ‘Inflection Point’ in Attacks From Russia and ChinaThe Cipher Brief 

A Victory Strategy for Ukraine: Disrupt Russia’s Artillery Supply ChainThe Cipher Brief 

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel charges 7 with spying for Iran, another 7 for planning assassinations.  Israel authorities announced Monday and Tuesday that 14 Israelis in two separate networks have been arrested for working for Iran.  On Monday, authorities announced that seven Israeli citizens had been arrested and charged with spying on sensitive military and energy installations for Iran over at least two years.  The suspects, all Jews who had emigrated from Azerbaijan to the Haifa area, were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in cryptocurrency, the police and Shin Bet internal security agency said. Authorities announced early Tuesday that a second group of seven young men had been arrested in East Jerusalem on suspicion of planning attacks in Israel, including the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist and a mayor in central Israel.   Israeli authorities said the first seven, including two minors and an Israeli soldier listed as AWOL, carried out 600 missions for Iran, photographing sensitive military installations, including naval bases,  the Nevatim air base, Iron Dome air defense batteries, the Hadera power plant, and the Golani Brigade base, where four soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone attack last week.  An Israeli police official said the allegations were “among the most serious that the state of Israel has known. The suspects acted while knowing about their actions and out of greed for money — and harmed the State of Israel and its citizens.”  Several of the suspects were arrested near the home of an Israeli citizen they were monitoring, raising suspicions that Iran might be targeting prominent individuals.  Financial Times  Jerusalem Post Times of Israel   Jerusalem Post  Times of Israel

U.S. envoy meets Lebanese leaders in quest for Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire.   U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein held talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut Monday, searching for a path to a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon’s powerful militant group. Hochstein said the conflict has “escalated out of control.”  He said that United Nations Resolution 1701 — which calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state — “is what the solution is going to have to look like.” That resolution envisioned a buffer zone between the Litani River and the Israeli Lebanese border, but Hezbollah has never abided by it.  Since Hezbollah is resupplied with arms by Iran, how could any disarmament be enforced?  “We are working with the government of Lebanon, the state of Lebanon, as well as the government of Israel to get to a formula that brings an end to this conflict once and for all,” Hochstein said.  New York Times  Reuters 

Israel’s war on Hezbollah’s money scores big.  Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari revealed Monday that Israel has located a Hezbollah bunker under Al-Sahel Hospital in Beirut loaded with more than $500 million in gold and cash. Hagari said the bunker “was deliberately placed under a hospital” and was used by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, assassinated by an Israeli airstrike in late September. "This money could and still can go to rebuilding the state of Lebanon,” Hagari said. “This money had been intended to go exclusively to arming the terrorist organization Hezbollah and had no other destination." Over the weekend, Israel warned Lebanese to stay away from branches of the Hezbollah-affiliated financial institution al-Qard al-Hasan Association, AQAH, which has locations across Lebanon and provides many of the same functions as a traditional bank. The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklisted AQAH in 2007 for managing the financial activities of Hezbollah, a terrorist group, and giving it access to the international financial system.  Times of Israel  Jerusalem Post  Washington Post 

Blinken heads back to Israel hoping to restart Gaza deal talks.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday, his eleventh trip to the region since the start of the Gaza war.  His discussions with leaders in Israel, Jordan, Qatar and possibly elsewhere in the region are aimed at restarting Gaza ceasefire talks, discussing the enclave's future and improving humanitarian aid deliveries. Blinken’s swing occurs as the region braces for Israel’s response to Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack and the disruption that could follow. He will also discuss with Israel and other countries how to resolve the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Blinken is expected to follow up on the letter he and Defense secretary Lloyd Austin sent to Israeli leaders on Oct. 13, giving them 30 days to improve humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza or risk losing U.S. arms aid.  Reuters

Blinken, White House pressing for Gaza ‘security footprint’ to improve flow of aid.  White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters Monday that in the wake of last week’s ultimatum from the White House, Israel has improved aid deliveries to Gaza.  “Over the last few days to a week there’s been more than 120 trucks have made it into northern Gaza, which is a good thing,” Kirby said, “It’s not enough, but it’s a good thing.” But “we need to see much more aid getting into Gaza,” Kirby said. One major problem, he said, is the absence of basic security on Gaza streets.  “There’s armed gangs at the Kerem Shalom crossing,” Kirby said.  “There’s plenty of trucks that are waiting to get in there, and they’re not able to get in there because of these armed gangs and criminal groups that are stopping it. So we all have to take a turn here and see what we can do to reduce that pressure down at Kerem Shalom so that that aid can get in.”  He said Secretary of State Antony Blinken “has been working on day-after options for months and months now” but still hasn’t nailed down a detailed plan for “what a security footprint could look like in Gaza, how it would be comprised, where it would be deployed, who would run it.”  While in the region next week, Blinken is certain to bring up the day-after plan with Israel and also with Arab partners in the region and with Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority.   The White House 

Israel’s military spending soaring. The Israeli government spending on the military has spiked from $1.8 billion per month before Oct. 7, 2023, to around $4.7 billion by the end of 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.  Other economic factors compiled by the Associated Press: The Israeli government spent $27.5 billion on the military last year, according to the institute. Military spending as a percentage of annual economic output was 5.3%, compared with 3.4% for the United States and 1.5% for Germany. Israel’s economic output fell 5.6%.  The West Bank economy has been hit hard, where tens of thousands of Palestinian laborers lost their jobs in Israel after Oct. 7 and Israeli military raids and checkpoints have hindered movement. The World Bank says the West Bank economy contracted by 25% in the first quarter, mostly due job loss and disruption. Gaza is far worse – 90% of the population has been displaced and most workers are unemployed.  Associated Press 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Pentagon Chief Announces New Aid but Not Kyiv’s Main Asks. During a visit to Kyiv on Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine but refrained from supporting two key requests: NATO membership and long-range missile strikes into Russia. Austin's visit comes as Ukrainian forces lose ground in the eastern Donbas and Russian strikes escalate, targeting cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih. While Austin emphasized that "no silver bullet" exists to change the war decisively, the U.S. remains Kyiv’s largest supporter, having pledged $64 billion in military aid since the war began. Critics argue that the cautious, incremental U.S. approach has hindered Ukraine. With the U.S. presidential election looming, future aid may be at stake. Wall Street Journal Associated Press New York Times

Austin takes aim at Putin ‘apologists,’ decries ‘both sides’ narrative on blame for war. In an impassioned speech in Kyiv on Monday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin rejected the notion that Ukraine is to blame for Russia's invasion. Austin condemned those who blur the lines between Russia and Ukraine, “between aggressor and victim,” and called on those people to "come to Kyiv" to understand the reality. His remarks at the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine came after Donald Trump suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, not Russian President Vladimir Putin, was responsible for the war. Austin said Ukraine’s security is critical to U.S. interests, citing threats to European security, NATO, and the global order. “The spirit of Ukraine has inspired the world, and it has reminded us all to never take our freedom for granted,” Austin said. “So we refuse to blame Ukraine for the Kremlin’s aggression. We refuse to offer excuses for Putin’s atrocities. And we refuse to pretend that appeasement will stop an invasion.” He said that “if Ukraine falls under Putin's boot, all of Europe will fall under Putin's shadow.” Transcript of Lloyd Austin’s remarks in Kyiv Breaking Defense PoliticoEU Associated Press

Zelensky says the US will provide Ukraine with $800 million for drone production. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that the U.S. would provide $800 million for military drone production. This followed a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who revealed a separate $400 million military assistance package, including HIMARS air defense systems and artillery ammunition. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov praised the U.S. support as vital against Russian efforts to target Ukraine’s energy grid. Since 2022, the U.S. has committed $64 billion in security aid. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Seoul Eyes Arms for Ukraine Over Alleged North Korean Deployment. South Korea is considering sending weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s reported deployment of troops to support Russia's war effort, underscoring the risk of a divided Korean peninsula getting dragged into the conflict. This move would signal a shift in Seoul’s policy, which has so far avoided providing lethal aid to Ukraine. South Korea's National Security Council held an emergency meeting on Tuesday, urging North Korea to withdraw its forces immediately. President Yoon Suk Yeol labeled the growing Russia-North Korea military ties as a “threat to world security.” A presidential official told reporters: “We would consider supplying weapons for defensive purposes as part of the step-by-step scenarios, and if it seems they are going too far, we might also consider offensive use.” Seoul, a leading arms producer, has been under pressure from some Western countries and Kyiv to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons but has so far focused on non-lethal aid, including demining equipment. Reports suggest North Korea has already sent 1,500 troops, with more to follow. Western officials are debating whether North Korea’s role involves combat or support functions. Bloomberg Reuters

South Korea may send military personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops, Yonhap reports. South Korea is considering sending personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops that may join Russia’s war, according to a report Tuesday by Yonhap, South Korea’s leading news agency. The team could observe North Korean tactics or assist in interrogating captured soldiers. Around 10,000 North Korean troops are expected to support Russia, with 2,600 set to deploy to Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine holds territory. Kyiv Independent Reuters 

US consults allies about North Korean troops in Ukraine. The U.S. is consulting allies over reports that North Korea plans to send 10,000 soldiers to aid Russia’s war against Ukraine, calling it a "dangerous and highly concerning development." Ukraine’s United Nations Ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, said the troops could be ready by Nov. 1. South Korea's UN Ambassador Joonkook Hwang warned of the implications. "North Korea will expect a generous payoff from Moscow in return for its troop contribution. It could be either military or financial assistance. It could be nuclear weapons-related technology," he said. Reuters Washington Post

UAE president tells Putin: we are ready to help resolve the Ukraine crisis. During a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan said Monday that he offered to help resolve the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The talks, which extended until midnight at Putin's residence, included discussions on prisoner exchanges. Sheikh Mohammed reaffirmed his commitment to peace. "We are ready to make any efforts to resolve crises in the interests of both sides,” he said. Reuters

Ukraine's foreign minister calls for support to stop Russian strikes on its Black Sea ports. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, during a visit to Turkey on Monday, sought support to stop Russia's strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea port infrastructure, which have damaged four civilian vessels recently. In discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Sybiha emphasized the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and enhancing defense cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey. Turkey has offered to mediate and revive the Black Sea grain initiative, which allowed safe grain exports from Ukraine until Russia withdrew in July 2023. Reuters

Ukraine blasts UN’s Guterres over invitation to BRICS summit in Russia. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry criticized United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday for accepting Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation to the BRICS summit in Kazan, which ends on Thursday, while declining to attend a peace summit on Ukraine earlier in Switzerland. The ministry expressed dismay, stating that Guterres’ choice "damages the UN’s reputation" and does not contribute to peace. The BRICS summit features leaders from China and India. Guterres previously declined to attend the June peace summit in Switzerland. Ukraine plans a second peace summit later this year. Reuters

The foreigners who are fighting and dying for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Foreign soldiers captured while fighting for Russia in Ukraine claim they were tricked into joining the war. A prisoner from Nepal had gone to study in Russia but was lured into signing a military contract. A Slovak man seeking to live in Siberia signed up for trench work but was sent to the front lines. A Brazilian arrived for an IT job but was coerced into drone operations. Ukraine’s prisoner camps house foreigners from countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Brazil, many of whom face legal consequences if they return home. Estimates suggest thousands of foreigners have been recruited, often used as expendable troops. The Economist

Ukraine's struggle with weapon supply hampers battlefield efforts. According to Oleksandr Korniyenko, deputy chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, the nation’s battlefield efforts are hampered by inconsistent weapon supplies. He stressed that the lack of timely delivery of long-range missiles and regular ammunition is leading to casualties among Ukrainian troops. Despite recruitment efforts, heavy losses from over two years of war are taking a toll. Korniyenko believes Ukraine will eventually receive permission to use long-range missiles, as seen with previous delays in securing tanks and F-16s. Euronews

Russia advancing in Kursk and Donbas: Is the Ukrainian front at risk of collapsing? Russia has launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region and is pushing along Ukraine’s eastern front. Recent Russian advances have focused on areas like Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove, with the goal of capturing the Donetsk region’s administrative borders by year-end. Ukrainian forces remain on the defensive in Kursk, where Russia has deployed over 40,000 troops. The situation remains fluid, but Moscow aims to control the Kursk region fully by early 2025. Ukrainian defenses are holding, but Russia applies pressure across multiple fronts. RBC Ukraine

Battle for Chasiv Yar: Have Russian forces breached defense? Reports by Germany’s Bild newspaper claim Russian forces breached Ukrainian defenses in the key Donetsk Oblast city of Chasiv Yar and gained a foothold, but Ukrainian officials deny this. A Ukrainian military spokesperson said that Russian assaults by small groups had been repelled, with heavy losses, in Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian officials admit the situation is deteriorating but insist that Russian advances are temporary. Russian troops have long aimed to capture Chasiv Yar for strategic control over Donetsk Oblast, but Ukrainian resistance remains strong. RBC Ukraine

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 10 and injure 42 over the past day. Russian attacks killed 10 people across Ukraine in the past day, Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday. In Sumy, three people, including a child, died in house strikes. A missile attack in Zaporizhzhia killed three and injured 19. The attack damaged around 30 buildings in a residential area of the southeastern regional capital. Two people were killed in Myrnohrad, while one person each died in Kurakhove and Novoukrainka in Donetsk Oblast. In Kherson, one person was killed, and four were injured. Additional injuries occurred in Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Kharkiv, and other areas, with 42 people wounded overall. Ukrainian forces downed 46 out of 60 Russian drones overnight. Kyiv Independent  Kyiv Independent

Russians execute two Ukrainian POWs near Donetsk Oblast’s Selydove. Ukrainian authorities said Monday that Russian forces executed two Ukrainian prisoners of war near Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, on Oct. 18. The captured servicemen were forced to lie face down, held in place by Russian troops pressing them to the ground, before being executed at point-blank range with automatic firearms. The execution of unarmed POWs is considered a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions and a serious international crime. Ukraine has documented evidence that Russia has executed at least 93 Ukrainian POWs since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainska Pravda

Russia says Ukrainian drone attack hit biochemical plant. Russian officials reported Tuesday that a Ukrainian drone attack hit a Biokhim biochemical plant in the Tambov region, causing an explosion and fire. According to the Biokhim website, it produces "products of strategic importance for the state," particularly ethanol, a solvent used in manufacturing explosives. Drones also targeted plants in Russia’s Tula and Voronezh regions. Two distilleries were damaged in Tula. Voronezh reported a fire. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted several drones across multiple regions. Voice of America Kyiv Independent Reuters

Ukraine should lift the export ban on reconnaissance drones, vendor says. Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, deputy director general of Piranha Tech, argues Ukraine should lift its export ban on reconnaissance drones to support local defense companies. Since the 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine prohibited military exports to prioritize its armed forces, but this policy now limits companies' growth. Initially boosted by state orders, many firms have expanded beyond what the government can procure. Lifting the ban could generate revenue and allow companies to reinvest in research and development. However, concerns remain about Russian access to technology, prompting calls for safeguards like prioritizing state contracts and exporting older versions of drones. Defense News

ANALYSIS–Ukraine Must Turn the Tide Before It Can Negotiate. Ukraine faces several obstacles in stabilizing its front before it can enter meaningful negotiations with Russia. The Ukrainian military is stretched thin, with high casualties and dwindling supplies of essential artillery, ammunition, and vehicles. Russian forces have gained ground, particularly in the Donbas, taking advantage of Ukraine's recruitment and training shortcomings. Moreover, Ukraine’s partners are skeptical about whether merely providing military equipment can improve the situation without reforms. Getting the upper hand on the battlefield is critical because Russia will only negotiate seriously if it feels militarily pressured.Foreign Affairs

​​Polish officials seek access to classified sections of Ukraine's victory plan. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski said in an interview on Monday that Poland wants access to classified sections of Ukraine’s victory plan. The plan includes five main points, with three confidential appendices accessible only to select partners. Despite its military support to Ukraine, Poland has not received full access. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk backs Ukraine’s NATO membership bid and has suggested that the plan may be reassessed after the U.S. presidential election. Poland has been a key supporter of Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Trump says he threatened Putin with strike on Moscow over possible invasion of Ukraine. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, Donald Trump said that he had threatened Vladimir Putin with a strike on Moscow to deter an invasion of Ukraine. Trump recounted telling Putin, “If you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard…right in the middle of fricking Moscow.” He claimed to have warned Putin: “We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.” This conversation, Trump said, ended with Putin's incredulous response, “No way,” to which Trump replied, “Way.” Ukrainska Pravda Wall Street Journal

Harris says Putin ‘will be sitting in Kyiv’ if Trump is elected. During an event Monday in Michigan, Vice President Kamala Harris warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be "sitting in Kyiv" if Donald Trump is re-elected. Harris criticized Trump’s claim that he could resolve the Ukraine-Russia war in a day, interpreting it as a willingness to surrender Ukraine to Russia. She emphasized, “He would have Ukraine surrender its fight against an aggressor violating its sovereignty." Harris cautioned that Trump's presidency would damage America's global standing. Trump has blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s 2022 invasion and has criticized the extent of U.S. military aid. CNN YouTube

Oscar-nominated producer Alexander Rodnyansky sentenced to jail in Russia in absentia. Oscar-nominated Ukrainian producer Alexander Rodnyansky, known for films like Leviathan and Loveless, was sentenced to eight-and-a-half years in prison in absentia by a Moscow court on Monday. The 63-year-old, who fled Russia after denouncing its invasion of Ukraine, was convicted of spreading "fake" information about the Russian military. Rodnyansky, declared a "foreign agent" by Russia in 2022, remains a vocal critic of the war. His sentencing underscores the Kremlin's broader crackdown on dissent, which has led to the detention and punishment of thousands of critics since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Rodnyansky began his career in Ukraine, where he founded the country’s first independent television network in 1995. The Guardian

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, Oct. 21. Moldova's Sunday European Union referendum narrowly passed, with support from the diaspora, while President Maia Sandu will face Alexandr Stoianoglo in a Nov. 3 runoff. Officials reported Russian interference in Moldova’s election, with malign efforts expected before the runoff. Russia is seeking to ease tensions with South Korea amid reports of North Korean military personnel training in Russia. Russian forces continue executing Ukrainian POWs and using chemical weapons. Russian occupation authorities continue to coerce occupied Ukrainian populations into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in the western part of the Kursk Oblast salient. Russian troops advanced west of Kreminna, southeast of Pokrovsk, and southeast of Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War.

Opinion: Putin’s Rising Price for Peace in Ukraine. Walter Russell Mead argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to demand a high price for peace in Ukraine as Western powers, facing prolonged aid costs, now seek an off-ramp from the war. Despite initial hopes that sanctions would weaken Russia, and that Ukraine could halt Russian advances, Putin’s economy has adapted, supported by alliances with North Korea, China, and Iran. Ukraine, meanwhile, faces a war of attrition. Mead suggests that while Western leaders like Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz may hope for a compromise involving territorial concessions, Putin is unlikely to make such compromises easily. As Biden prepares to leave office, the partnership between Germany and the U.S. is failing its most important test since the presidency of George H.W. Bush. Wall Street Journal

Opinion: Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine. Timothy Garton Ash argues that NATO membership is essential for securing Ukraine’s future, similar to how West Germany was protected after World War II. While Ukraine will likely lose territory to Russia, Ash contends that NATO’s Article 5 must cover areas under Kyiv's control to ensure security, attract investment, and enable reconstruction. Without this, Ukraine risks remaining divided and vulnerable. Ash also warns of global repercussions if the West falters, including emboldening China to act against Taiwan. He stresses the need for stronger military aid and international commitment to Ukraine's defense. Financial Times

Opinion: Zelensky’s Victory Plan for Ukraine Makes Sense. It Has Little Chance of Being Implemented. Max Boot argues that although logical, Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plan for Ukraine has little chance of being implemented. The plan calls for increased Western military support, NATO membership, and economic investment to accelerate the war’s end. While Zelensky’s approach would strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and potentially pressure Russia into serious negotiations, Boot believes the likelihood of this happening is slim due to limited Western commitment. NATO membership remains a distant prospect, and Zelensky faces obstacles in securing the military and economic aid he seeks. Boot concludes that the war will likely continue into its fourth year. Council on Foreign Relations

AMERICAS

Washington reveals new rules to prevent adversaries like Russia, China, Iran from accessing bulk U.S. data. The U.S. Justice Department has presented new rules to protect federal government data and Americans' bulk personal data from being accessed by adversarial nations, such as China, Iran, and Russia. The proposal, stemming from an executive order by President Joe Biden, aims to block these countries from using U.S. financial, genomic, and health data for cyberattacks, espionage, and blackmail. The rules also apply to Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea. Transactions involving data brokers who may send information to these countries will be banned, along with the transfer of U.S. government personnel data. Specific restrictions include bans on transferring human genomic data on over 100 Americans or personal data on over 10,000 people, and precise geolocation data of more than 1,000 U.S. devices. The Justice Department will enforce compliance with civil and criminal penalties, and apps like TikTok could be impacted if they transfer sensitive data to foreign parent companies.  Reuters Cyberscoop

U.S. Navy identifies 2 crew members killed in recent fighter jet crash. The U.S. Navy has identified two aviators who were killed in a jet crash near Mount Rainier last week as Lt. Cmdr. Lyndsay P. Evans and Lt. Serena N. Wileman, both 31-year-olds from California. They were flying an EA-18G Growler from the "Zappers" squadron during a training mission when their jet crashed in a remote area east of Mount Rainier. The wreckage was successfully located, and officials have transitioned from search and rescue to recovery efforts. Navy officials are focusing on supporting the families and recovering the debris. The cause of the crash is still under investigation. Both women were praised for their service and contributions, with Senator Patty Murray expressing her admiration for their trailblazing careers. Associated Press New York Times CBS News Fox News 

Haitian police embroiled in fighting with gang coalition attempting to seize capital. Haitian police battled gang members on Monday as they attempted to seize control of Solino, one of the few neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince not yet dominated by gangs. The area has been under violent attack since Thursday, with locals fleeing and pleading for help. The National Police regained some areas but are still pursuing gang members. Gang coalition "Viv Ansanm” has claimed parts of Solino and threatened non-members with violence. Prime Minister Garry Conille held an emergency meeting on Monday, recalling elite police and military units from protection duties to flood affected neighborhoods. Viv Ansanm, a coalition of previously rival gangs, has launched attacks on government infrastructure and is resisting a U.N.-backed mission led by Kenyan police. The coalition's formation reduced gang infighting and enabled them to focus on criminal activities and confront security forces. Despite internal tensions, the alliance is expected to persist as long as it faces external threats. Associated Press Le Monde

Venezuela detains ex-oil minister, accuses him of cooperating with U.S. to sabotage industry.  Venezuela arrested former Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea over the weekend as part of a crackdown on the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), following President Nicolás Maduro’s controversial reelection. Tellechea, who served as oil minister until August, was arrested along with several of his collaborators, and has been accused of handing over sensitive PDVSA information to an entity linked to U.S. intelligence. This is part of Maduro's renewed anti-corruption campaign aimed at regaining public support after opposition claims showed him suffering a devastating election loss in July. Tellechea’s detention follows the arrest of his predecessor, Tareck El Aissami, who was implicated in a missing energy revenue investigation. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

EUROPE

The World Is Still Hooked on Russian Energy—at Its Own Peril. Western efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy have largely stalled, enabling Russia to continue funding its war against Ukraine. Despite sanctions, Europe continues to import Russian energy, particularly LNG and oil through shadow tankers, with Austria being especially reliant. Since February 2022, the EU has paid Russia over €196 billion for oil, gas, and coal. Russia’s economy is thriving, driven by defense spending, and its GDP is projected to grow over 4% in 2024. Globally, countries like China, India, and Turkey benefit from cheaper Russian energy. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces a devastating winter, with its energy infrastructure decimated by Russian attacks, highlighting the dire consequences of the West’s weakening commitment to isolating Russia from energy markets. Time

US Will Continue to ‘Tighten the Screws’ on Russia LNG Flows. The U.S. will continue to "tighten the screws" on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to cut Moscow’s war funding, Geoffrey Pyatt, U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources, said. Since August, the U.S. has sanctioned Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 plant and restricted shipments, preventing foreign port deliveries. While other Russian LNG plants continue operating, further sanctions could affect global LNG supply and prices. Pyatt said future actions will focus on tracking sanctioned Russian cargoes. Bloomberg

Putin hosts BRICS summit in Russia under the shadow of Ukraine war. At the three-day BRICS summit in Russia that started Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin aims to highlight the growing influence of the non-Western bloc despite pressures from other member nations to end the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The summit brings together key leaders from more than 30 attending nations as Putin seeks to position BRICS as a counterbalance to the West. China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi are attending. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The group also includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have formally applied. BRICS countries represent almost half the world’s population and more than 35 percent of global economic output. Among China’s priorities is the continued expansion of the group to diminish the power of the United States. But divisions among the nations remain. Now in their 15th year, the group has achieved little. “The beauty of BRICS is that it doesn’t put too many obligations on you,” said Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. For Putin, the summit is important because it shows the failure of Western efforts to isolate him, Gabuyev said. Reuters Associated Press New York Times CNN

Russia Has a Message for BRICS Summit Goers: Bring Cash. At the BRICS summit, while President Vladimir Putin aims to show that Russia is withstanding Western sanctions, organizers have a practical message for foreign attendees: bring cash. Due to sanctions, Mastercard and Visa cards issued outside Russia aren’t accepted. Russia advises participants to bring dollars or euros, which can be exchanged for rubles. This highlights the limitations of Russia's Mir payment system, as even allies avoid it following U.S. sanctions. Bloomberg

Putin’s plan to defeat the dollar. Vladimir Putin’s financial plan, under discussion at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, aims to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global finance. Putin hopes to create a new BRICS payments system, dubbed "BRICS Bridge," for cross-border settlements using digital platforms run by central banks. This move would allow Russia and other nations to bypass sanctions imposed by the West, especially those using the dollar. The proposed system offers advantages, such as faster and cheaper transactions, and reduces dependence on the American financial system. Countries that fear sanctions may find this appealing, as it decentralizes global finance. Despite obstacles, BRICS may push forward, reshaping international payments and challenging the dollar's supremacy. The Economist

Moldova Approves EU Membership Path with Razor-Thin Margin. Moldova narrowly voted Sunday to secure a path toward European Union membership, with 50.5% of voters supporting the constitutional amendment in a referendum marred by Russian interference. President Maia Sandu celebrated the outcome but accused Russia of attempting to destabilize Moldova, including through a massive vote-buying scheme backed by exiled oligarch Ilan Shor. Russian efforts included €100 million in influence operations, disinformation, and direct meddling in local elections. Concurrently, Sandu won 42% in the first round of Moldova's presidential election, setting up a runoff against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo on Nov. 3. Bloomberg Reuters Associated Press New York Times Financial Times Washington Post

How Russia’s Spies Hacked the Entire Nation of Georgia. Russian intelligence agencies have been conducting an extensive hacking campaign in Georgia, infiltrating government agencies, critical infrastructure, and key industries over several years. Between 2017 and 2020, Russian spies accessed the Foreign Ministry, Finance Ministry, central bank, and energy and telecommunications companies. Moscow's GRU military intelligence gained control over Georgian electricity grids, oil terminals, media platforms, and government departments, potentially allowing Russia to sabotage critical infrastructure. This operation allowed Russia to eavesdrop on government communications and monitor key officials in real time. The hacking campaign, uncovered ahead of Georgia’s Oct. 26 parliamentary elections, highlights Russia’s long-standing efforts to influence and control Georgia’s political direction as the country seeks to escape Moscow's orbit and integrate with the West. Bloomberg

Georgia's shark-owning billionaire tells voters: Don't risk war with Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s richest person and founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, urged voters to avoid provoking a war with Russia before the Oct. 26 parliamentary election. Despite leaving office over a decade ago, Ivanishvili, often viewed as Georgia’s most powerful figure, warned against Western influences, claiming they view Georgia and Ukraine as "cannon fodder." He emphasized avoiding Ukraine’s fate while maintaining pragmatic relations with Russia. Though his party is still popular, critics accuse Ivanishvili of consolidating power and reversing Georgia’s pro-Western stance since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, potentially endangering the country's European Union and NATO aspirations. Reuters

British foreign minister aims for strengthened security ties with Indonesia, South Korea.  U.K. Foreign Minister David Lammy recently visited Indonesia and South Korea to bolster security cooperation and discuss the transition to clean energy. Lammy's visit to South Korea came in the wake of Ukraine's claims that North Korea may send 10,000 soldiers to aid Russia in its war, raising U.S. concerns. Lammy underscored Seoul's support for Kyiv and its role in maintaining regional stability amid Pyongyang's missile tests and nuclear threats. Lammy, after a recent visit to China, also attended the Sunday inauguration of Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta. His trip came amid efforts to deepen ties with both G20 nations. Reuters

Turkish, German leaders met in Istanbul for amicable talks on bilateral concerns, but clash on Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Istanbul over the weekend to discuss bilateral cooperation, though they disagreed on their stances toward the conflicts in the Middle East. Erdogan harshly criticized Israel and its Western supporters, while Scholz defended Israel's right to self-defense and openly rejected Erdogan’s labeling of the Gaza violence as "genocide." Despite these differences, the meeting was cordial. Ankara seeks to acquire European arms, particularly Eurofighter Typhoon jets, and Scholz hinted at progress on this, with Berlin recently increasing arms exports to Turkey. Meanwhile, Scholz is seeking his Turkish counterpart’s help in deporting rejected asylum-seekers, including Turkish citizens and migrants from Afghanistan and Syria. Associated Press France 24 

MIDDLE EAST

Qatari emir traveling to Germany for economic talks. Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, is set to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Tuesday for talks on the strengthening of economic and diplomatic ties. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Qatar has become a strategic energy partner for Germany, helping reduce reliance on Russian gas. Discussions on the table for Tuesday’s talks may include Qatar's potential investment in Berlin's Schwedt refinery, and the deepening of trade and security relations. Doha has also positioned itself as a key mediator in the Middle East, notably between Hamas and Israel. However, while the partnership offers economic and strategic benefits, there are concerns about Qatar's human rights record. Qatar has been working to improve its image in Germany through cultural and media initiatives Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China conducts live-fire exercises near Taiwan, just a week after large-scale drills. China is carrying out live-fire drills off its southern Fujian province, near the Pingtan islands, following recent military exercises aimed at punishing Taiwan for its rejection of Chinese sovereignty claims. The Tuesday drills come after Beijing conducted large-scale air and sea exercises a week ago, including a record deployment of 153 aircraft and 14 navy vessels in a single day, as part of its increased military presence near the self-governing island. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry noted Tuesday that the most recent drills are likely part of an annual exercise with potential deterrent motives. Pingtan Maritime Safety Administration warned vessels to avoid the area around Niushan Island, which is located 66 miles from Taiwan. The U.S. and Canada, in response to China’s rising assertiveness, conducted "freedom of navigation" transits through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post Taiwan News   

American general says U.S. deployment of Typhon missile system to Philippines is ‘incredibly important.’  U.S. Maj. Gen. Marcus Evans asserted Monday that the Army's recent deployment of the Typhon midrange missile system to the northern Philippines is "incredibly important" for joint training with Filipino forces in the region's challenging conditions. This move is part of broader U.S. efforts to strengthen military alliances in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s expanding footprint, especially in relation to Taiwan and the deeply disputed South China Sea. Despite Beijing’s alarmed objections, the missile system, which is capable of firing advanced missiles, will remain in the Philippines indefinitely as a deterrent. Evans, the Commanding General of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry Division, emphasized the value of working closely with Filipino troops to integrate these capabilities into their operations. Plans are underway to expand next year’s joint military exercises, focusing on more complex and realistic training. This collaboration underscores the long-standing Washington-Manila military alliance, dating back to World War II, when American forces helped liberate the Philippines from Japanese occupation. Associated Press 

Opinion: A code of conduct is necessary for finding a solution to South China Sea disputes.  This editorial from the South China Morning Post argues that disputes over the hotly contested South China Sea must be resolved through peaceful dialogue, rather than force, violence, and aggression, until a code of conduct is established to prevent militarization, ensure the freedom of navigation, and promote calm resolution. Skirmishes in the region between the coastguards of China, the Philippines, and Vietnam have escalated this year, bringing tensions to a boiling point. In response, Southeast Asian leaders have called for a swift agreement on a code of conduct based on international law to manage disputes. During a summit in Laos earlier this month attended by ASEAN members and global diplomats, Chinese Premier Li Qiang supported efforts to finalize this code. Tensions persist, particularly between the U.S., which has a defense treaty with the Philippines, and China. Concerns have also arisen over the idea that the Washington-Beijing rivalry could potentially compromise ASEAN's neutrality. Despite disagreements, however, leaders from China and Vietnam recently reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace in the region. And until the code is agreed upon, dialogue is essential to avoid further conflicts. South China Morning Post 

India, China come to agreement on military patrols along contested border. India and China have struck a deal on patrolling their long-disputed border, signaling a major step toward easing tensions after the 2020 border clashes that strained relations. An Indian official unveiled the agreement on Monday ahead of the BRICS summit in Russia, which both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are attending. The long-anticipated deal resolves the issues that arose from border skirmishes four years ago, which resulted in the deaths of several soldiers and significantly impacted geopolitics in Asia. Indian and Chinese negotiators have been working on the agreement for weeks, resulting in disengagement along the contested Line of Actual Control. Both sides have expressed optimism about the resolution. This development comes amid speculation that Modi and Xi may discuss further normalization of ties during the BRICS summit. The U.S., while observing closely, is not opposed to the agreement, even though New Delhi has been a key actor in the Biden administration’s strategy to counter Beijing. The agreement may reduce troop deployments along the border, but India is expected to maintain deeper ties with the U.S. despite improving relations with China. Washington Post Associated Press BBC Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera 

“Unlawful:” North Korea condemns new U.S.-led sanctions monitoring team. North Korean foreign minister Choe Son Hui has denounced the new multilateral sanctions monitoring team led by the U.S., calling it "unlawful and illegitimate." The team, announced last week by the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, aims to enforce sanctions against Pyongyang after Russia and China obstructed U.N. monitoring efforts. Choe accused Washington of violating North Korea's sovereignty and warned of consequences. Reuters 

Beijing protests after Chinese Consulate in Myanmar damaged by minor blast. Several sources reported that an explosive device caused minor damage to the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar, on Friday, though no casualties were reported, and no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. China is a key ally of Myanmar's military, which seized power in 2021 and is currently battling resistance forces on multiple fronts. The military is investigating the incident, calling those responsible "terrorists." Beijing on Monday denounced the blast, calling for Myanmar authorities to detain the perpetrators. The attack comes amid intense fighting between Myanmar's army and pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic militias, some of which have captured territory along the Chinese border. Beijing, concerned about the military government's stability, has sought to influence ethnic groups with which it has ties to halt their offensive. China is a major arms supplier and economic partner to Myanmar, investing in infrastructure and trade. Meanwhile, Myanmar's opposition National Unity Government condemned the attack, underscoring its stance against actions that could fuel racial or religious conflict. Associated Press Reuters Radio Free Asia 

Australia unveils $4.7 billion long-range missile deal. Australia on Tuesday announced a $4.7 billion deal with the U.S. to strengthen its air and missile defense by acquiring SM-2 IIIC and SM-6 long-range missiles for its navy. These advanced missiles, including the SM-6, which can defend against ballistic missiles and strike maritime, land, and air targets, will be deployed on Australia’s Hobart class destroyers and future Hunter class frigates. The move is part of the nation’s broader defense strategy, prioritizing long-range strike capabilities and bolstering northern bases amid rising U.S.-China tensions. The upgrade aims to deepen Canberra’s deterrence in what Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy described as the most complex geopolitical environment since World War II. Reuters Defense Post Bloomberg 

AFRICA

Russia launches probe into reported downing of cargo jet in Sudan’s Darfur. Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed on Monday to have shot down a cargo jet in Darfur, alleging without evidence that the so-called “foreign warplane” was aiding the Sudanese military and dropping “barrel bombs” on civilians. Footage from the crash site showed RSF fighters displaying identity documents, including a Russian passport, and ID materials linked to Airline Transport Incorporation FZC, a UAE-based company. The aircraft was apparently identified as an Ilyushin Il-76 from Kyrgyzstan's New Way Cargo, an airline which has been connected to the transfers of arms to Sudan’s paramilitary. The UAE has consistently denied any involvement in weapons deliveries, though U.N. experts maintain that the accusations are credible. Russian diplomats are investigating the incident, suspecting that Russian nationals may have been on board. The RSF, which has been engaged in this devastating civil war since April 2023, announced that “all foreign mercenaries aboard the aircraft were eliminated.” Emirati officials have not yet responded to requests for comment. Associated Press RBC-Ukraine Euronews Kyiv Independent

Officials says Congo army re-capture town seized by M23 rebels. The Congolese army on Tuesday announced that it managed to retake the town of Kalembe in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, after Tutsi-led M23 rebels seized it earlier. Rebels took Kalembe from the Congolese military and local allied forces on Sunday morning, though civilians, fearing for their safety, fled to the nearby town of Pinga. A Congo army spokesman said that forces successfully took Kalembe back on Monday after military troops were deployed to the area on helicopters. A Walikale territory official said that fighting is ongoing, and that the residents who fled have not yet returned. The M23 insurgency's interest in Kalembe is believed to be tied to the area's gold mines, from which the group earns significant revenue through illegal mineral smuggling. The M23 group has been active since 2022, with Congo and the U.N. accusing neighboring Rwanda of supporting the rebels, allegations which Rwanda denies. Upcoming negotiations between Congo and Rwanda may impact the ongoing violence. Reuters Reuters

U.S. calls for investigation after gunmen shoot dead two Mozambique opposition figures.  The U.S.  State Department has denounced the recent murders of two opposition figures in Mozambique, urging a swift investigation into their deaths. Lawyer Elvino Dias and opposition party official Paulo Guambe were shot and killed on Saturday, ahead of protests against a disputed election. A local right group said the two were “brutally assassinated” in a “cold-blooded murder,” while the Mais Integridade election watchdog claimed the murders were planned to strike fear into anyone calling for transparency in the polls. The U.S., the E.U., and Portugal have all joined Mozambique's political parties in urging a thorough inquiry. The killings occurred as Mozambique faces severe unrest following its October 9 election, where early results suggest a victory for the ruling Frelimo party, despite opposition claims of election fraud. Protestors who gathered in the capital of Maputo on Monday were targeted by police, who fired teargas and bullets. Washington also urged all parties to resolve disputes peacefully and reject violence. Reuters BBC Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

China Spamouflage operation renews disinformation attacks on Sen. Rubio.  China’s influence operation, Spamouflage, has targeted Sen. Marco Rubio with a new surge of bogus posts to the senator’s X account.  According to the Clemson University Media Forensics Lab, Spamouflage operatives have been testing “new tactics” in a campaign against the Florida senator that “might serve as a warning of some things to come.”  Clemson’s researchers note that the initial Spamouflage operations against Rubio began in 2022, using tactics that included posting thousands of messages “to drown out real content.”  In the renewed campaign against Rubio that began in mid-September, researchers say more overtly anti-Rubio content was posted and then amplified.  Darren Linvill, co-founder of the Media Forensics Lab, said it is inaccurate to describe Chinese disinformation efforts as amateurish.  According to Linvill, “that misidentifies what China is actually doing. …What reaches us and what we see can be affected in a lot of different ways. And anytime that we see something that we can attribute to a state actor, we need to talk about it.”   Linvill described the latest Spamouflage posts as well written, suggesting the campaign may have used AI or a large language model to write them.  The Record

Moldovan parliament’s email servers hacked in run-up to national election.  Email servers supporting the Moldovan parliament were hit by a cyberattack just before the country’s presidential election that took place on Sunday.  A parliament spokesperson confirmed that some data was compromised by an unknown threat actor last Thursday.  No details on the scope of the attack were given as an investigation continues.  The spokesperson said the legislature is the target of frequent cyber incidents while noting that the number increased as the national election approached.  Meanwhile, incumbent president Maia Sandu, who gained 42 percent of Sunday’s vote and will face a run-off in November, pointed to “outside interference” as the reason for the slim majority that approved Moldova’s accession to the E.U.  Sandu said "criminal groups…have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability."  Moldovan cyber authorities have alleged that Russia makes “extensive use of social networks” and “hybrid means” to interfere in elections and stir up ethnic divisions.  The Record

State Department offers reward for information on Russian propaganda operation.  A State Department reward of up to $10 million has been announced for information about the Rybar Russian media operation and staff amid reports the outlet is disseminating propaganda to shape the U.S. presidential election.  State’s Rewards for Justice Program alleges that Rybar is using its social media reach to spread anti-Western messaging, specifically to deepen social and political divisions in the U.S.  Rybar reportedly is funded by an organization linked to the Russian military that has been sanctioned by the U.S.  Rybar was founded by the late leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin.  Rybar’s social media platforms attempt to incite discord over immigration and partisan political identities.  The State Department recently has stepped up efforts to counteract Russian disinformation by sanctioning the RT media network and affiliated media firms.  State also alleged that RT operated a crowdfunding website supporting weapons and equipment supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine.  CyberScoop

Israeli entities targeted by phishing emails impersonating cybersecurity firm.  Unidentified hackers reportedly have attempted to embed wiper malware in Israeli organization networks by masquerading as warning emails from the ESET cybersecurity firm.  The phishing tactic, which included a ZIP download attachment, claimed that devices belonging to targeted individuals was infected by a state-linked threat actor.  According to the email, activating the attachment would allow recovery from the claimed attack.  A cybersecurity researcher said the bogus email could infect targeted devices with ransomware, adding that hackers used malicious files that were placed on ESET servers.  The researcher added that the ESET-branded campaign was aimed at “cybersecurity personnel within organizations across Israel.”  ESET, which is based in Slovakia, denied that its server infrastructure was compromised by the hackers.  ESET did acknowledge that its Israeli partner was “impacted” by a security incident, adding that the “limited malicious email campaign was blocked within ten minutes.”  The Record BleepingComputer The Register

U.S. conducting ‘final review’ of new limits on investments in Chinese AI projects.  The Office of Management and Budget reportedly is conducting a final review of new rules that will outlaw certain U.S. investments in Chinese AI development.  The restrictions apply to outbound AI investments in AI, semiconductors and microelectronics, and quantum computing.  Their public posting suggests they will likely be released in the next couple of weeks.   Former Treasury official Laura Black said, "it looks to me like they're trying to publish this before the election."  She noted that the Treasury Department typically provides a 30-day window before such regulations go into effect.  Black said the final rules will clarify details such as the scope of AI-related development.  Certain AI uses would be banned under the rules as well as systems trained in using a specified quantity of computing power.  They also will require notifications to the Treasury Department by U.S. investors related to some investments in AI and other sensitive technologies.  Reuters

Chinese official claims 3nm smartphone chip not yet announced by tech firm.  The chief economist of Beijing’s economy and IT bureau claims that the Xiaomi tech firm has designed China’s first 3nm smartphone chip, an advance that the company itself has not announced.  A news report carried by the state-owned Beijing radio station cited chief economist Tang Jianguo’s announcement that Xiaomi “taped out” the country’s first 3nm mobile chip, a reference to the final design stage before mass production.  No further details were given.  Notably, the report of the 3nm chip breakthrough was carried by multiple Chinese media outlets, but quickly removed from the Chinese internet.  The Xiaomi firm operates a semiconductor design unit that customizes chips for its own projects often based on imported products.   Xiaomi , which is not on the U.S. chip control blacklist, still has access to mobile chips from companies like Qualcomm, the leading chip supplier to China.  South China Morning Post

Beijing AI academy says new multimodal model rivals Western peers.  The Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence (BAAI) has launched a new multimodal AI model, one of the first Chinese entities to offer a tool capable of handling text, images, and video.  BAAI is a nonprofit organization supporting the technical growth of China’s AI sector.  The Emu3 multimodal platform employs a simple architectural design that trains models to understand images and produce video clips.  BAAI director Wang Zhongyuan described the model as the organization’s “largest technological contribution in recent years.”  The BAAI model simplified approach removes the need to combine task-specific capabilities for different data types, leading to reduced complexity and increased efficiency.   BAAI claims that the Emu3 in certain respects outperforms models such as Stable Diffusion XL image generation tool.  Wang said the new BAAI product will create the foundation for future multimodal model advances.  He added that “Emu3 proves that the next-token prediction can have high performance in multimodal tasks.  This simple architecture will be conducive to industrialization.”  South China Morning Post

Global memory-chip sector worries grow over possible surge in Chinese production.  Chip sector investors are concerned that a surge in Chinese production could threaten recovery of the memory-chip market.  The potential of a large increase in Chinese output is not imminent, but could be “a wild card down the road,” according to the Wall Street Journal.  After a strong rally dating back to last year, memory-chip shares have declined sharply.  SK Hynix and Micron Technology have regained some ground but along with Samsung Electronics have experienced downturns of 20-30 percent since highs in July.  The memory-chip sector’s most recent worry is rapid expansion of capacity by Chinese rivals.  The increased capital investment in DRAM chips by the Chinese company ChangXin Memory is cited as a particular reason for concern.  DRAM capacity of Chinese firms increased from 4 percent in 2022 to 11 percent in 2024.  Some estimates project China’s DRAM capacity reaching 16 percent by the end of 2025.  It is noted that Western export controls may increase the challenges Chinese manufacturers face in producing next generation chips.  One estimate points out that the technology lag between CXMT and competitors outside China is about six to eight years.  However, if Chinese chip makers are able to meet domestic demand by supplanting foreign firms, U.S. and Korean manufacturers would find themselves with excess capacity, leading to production cuts or a glut in the global memory-chip market.  Wall Street Journal

Cisco says recent system breach did not involve internal sensitive data.  Digital communications company Cisco acknowledged that a recent system breach included the leaking of data not intended for public release but says that its internal systems containing sensitive personal data information was not compromised.  The hack penetrated the company’s resource center that supports customer-facing software but is not part of its internal network.  Cisco said in an incident update that “the data in question is on a public-facing DevHub environment – a Cisco resource center that enables us to support our community by making available software code, scripts, etc., for customers to use as needed.”  The company did acknowledge that a “small number of files” not intended for public circulation “may have been published.”  On October 18, the alleged hacker known as IntelBroker said Cisco has “finally” succeeded in blocking access to the company’s file.  The hacker claimed last week to have stolen large data holdings from Cisco, including information linked to companies such as Amazon, Samsung, Disney, Apple, and the U.S. military.  Cybernews   BleepingComputer

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