Report for Tuesday, October 1, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Israel launches ground invasion into Lebanon

Russian forces enter Vuhledar, situation 'extremely difficult,' governor says

Zelensky: Front line 'very, very difficult,' must do what we can in autumn

U.S. criticizes 'unsafe' Russian fighter jet encounter near Alaska.

NATO chief Mark Rutte’s new role, navigating the alliance’s future amid global tensions

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Israel’s ‘Limited’ Invasion of Lebanon Opens New Chapter in WarThe Cipher Brief

Pentagon Leaders Say the Budget Process Hurts National Security. They’re Right.  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israel launches ground invasion into Lebanon.  At 1:53 a.m. Tuesday, (6:53 p.m. ET Monday)  the Israeli Defense Forces posted on Telegram that a “targeted and limited” ground offensive had been launched into Lebanon “in accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago.”  By “political echelon,” the IDF meant Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his security cabinet, which green-lighted the incursion Monday evening local time.  Israeli officials told reporters the cabinet approved an operation that was targeted and limited in time and scope, not intended to occupy southern Lebanon but rather to clear out Hezbollah fighters, launchers and infrastructure in Lebanese border villages that pose an immediate threat to northern Israeli towns.  Israel’s political leaders have been under intense pressure to make it safe for some 70,000 of their citizens, displaced by constant Hezbollah rocketing, to return to their homes in the north of the country.  Israel’s drive to defang Hezbollah, dubbed Northern Arrows, received an endorsement from the Pentagon, once Biden administration officials were assured Israel didn’t intend to occupy swaths of southern Lebanon indefinitely.  Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant Monday.  According to a readout from Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, they "agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border" and “the importance of ultimately pivoting from military operations to a diplomatic pathway to provide security and stability as soon as possible.”  Axios  New York Times   Washington Post  Reuters  Times of Israel  IDF/Telegram 

Washington to Tehran – Don’t even think about it. Just in case Iran was considering intervening in Israel’s incursion into south Lebanon to defend Hezbollah, its number one proxy, Defense secretary Lloyd Austin had a message:  Don’t.   Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder’s  readout of a call Monday between Austin and  Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant included language meant to preempt any attempts by Tehran to reinforce Hezbollah, which is staggering, or to attack the U.S. and its allies in third countries:  “The Secretary made clear that the United States is well postured to defend U.S. personnel, partners, and allies in the face of threats from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations, and determined to prevent any actor from exploiting tensions or expanding the conflict.  The Secretary and Minister Gallant discussed the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel.”  Department of Defense Wall Street Journal 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine ‘at the top of the list’: NATO’s new chief takes charge. Newly appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Tuesday emphasized Ukraine's need to "prevail as a sovereign, independent, democratic nation." When asked for his priorities, Rutte told reporters, “Ukraine is at the top of the list: But also we need to do more in terms of our collective defense and deterrence.” Addressing concerns over the U.S. election, he expressed confidence in working with either candidate, citing experience with Donald Trump and praising Kamala Harris as a respected leader. Rutte acknowledged Trump's success in pushing NATO members to increase defense spending while stressing the need for greater investment and capability-building within the alliance. The alliance must “step up our support for Ukraine and bring it ever closer to NATO,” he said. Rutte must balance Ukraine’s hopes for NATO membership and funding while addressing increasing demands for defense spending across the alliance. With NATO’s growing focus on China and burden-sharing, Rutte’s experience will be critical in managing tensions within the 32-member alliance. Euronews Reuters The Guardian

Russian forces enter Vuhledar, situation 'extremely difficult,' governor says. Russian troops have entered Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Tuesday. Fierce fighting continues, with Russian forces nearing the town center. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in Vuhledar as Russian forces encircle the town and cut off evacuation routes. Supplies of food, ammunition, and fuel are running low, with Ukrainian soldiers describing a dire situation. Russian attacks from three sides have made it too dangerous for Ukrainian armored vehicles to approach. Some soldiers are attempting nighttime escapes, but not all are successful. Ukrainian commanders have withdrawn Colonel Ivan Vinnik, the 72nd Brigade’s leader, as the town faces imminent capture. The brigade has defended Vuhledar for nearly two years. The town's loss could threaten the entire southwestern part of Donetsk Oblast. The Telegraph

Zelensky: Front line 'very, very difficult,' must do what we can in autumn. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that the situation on the front line against Russia is "very, very difficult" and stressed the need for maximum efforts throughout the autumn. Following a meeting with top commanders, he emphasized the importance of swift military actions. Russian forces are advancing on Vuhledar in the Donetsk region and claim to have captured Nelipivka. Reuters

Russian strike Tuesday hits market in Kherson, killing at least 7, injuring 3. Russian forces shelled downtown Kherson on Tuesday, killing at least seven people and injuring three others, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. The attack targeted a local market, and a public transport stop around 9 a.m., coinciding with a nationwide minute of silence to honor Ukrainian soldiers on Defenders Day. Among the victims were three women and four men. Kherson, liberated by Ukraine in November 2022, has faced frequent Russian attacks since then. Kyiv Independent

Russian attack Tuesday on Zaporizhzhia kills 1 person, injures 6. Russian forces attacked Zaporizhzhia, killing one and injuring six, Moscow's troops have escalated strikes on the city, using guided aerial bombs, damaging civilian infrastructure. A recent Sept. 29 strike injured 16 people as Russia targets Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Russia launches waves of drone attacks on Kyiv. Russia launched multiple drone waves on Kyiv early Monday, lasting over five hours. Ukraine’s air defense successfully neutralized all drones, with some destroyed by electronic warfare. No casualties or damage were reported. Ukrainian forces downed 67 of 73 drones and one of three missiles. Fires broke out in five districts near Kyiv but caused no damage to critical infrastructure. Russia routinely targets Ukraine's energy, military, and transport systems. Reuters

Russians fire all available weapons at Vovchansk plant liberated by Ukraine's Defense Intelligence. Russian forces are using all available weapons to strike the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. The plant, liberated by Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, has become Russia's primary target despite not being a tactical asset. The situation on the Kharkiv front remains tense, with Vovchansk being the focal point of Russian assaults. Russia’s use of heavy flamethrowers and aerial bombs reflects its strategy of destroying what it cannot recapture. Ukrainska Pravda

Russia's Military After the Ukraine War: Enter the Gray Zone? Despite setbacks in Ukraine, Russia is expected to adapt its military strategy by incorporating lessons learned, particularly around nuclear deterrence and gradual escalation. While Russia's military may be weakened, it could still exploit "gray zone" tactics—operations just below the threshold of full conflict—to challenge Western powers. Observing NATO’s cautious response, Moscow has learned to push limits while avoiding direct war declarations. Russia is also testing the endurance of sanctions and preparing for long-term confrontation, expecting future operations to blend diplomatic negotiations with unexpected maneuvers and military actions. The National Interest

Is time still on Russia’s side? Despite the Ukraine war's toll, Russia’s economy and people have fared better than expected, but resilience has limits. Vladimir Putin faces crucial decisions about the war’s endgame, especially after Ukraine’s symbolic incursion into Russia's Kursk region. While this event was a grave affront, it hasn't shifted Russia’s military strategy, which remains focused on a war of attrition. Confident that time is on its side, the Kremlin shows no interest in negotiating, regardless of the U.S. election outcome, and doubts Donald Trump’s reliability if re-elected. Russia's adversarial stance toward Washington will persist. Le Monde

Zelensky prepares for new security agreement ahead of Ramstein meeting. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine and its allies are preparing for a critical meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base on Oct. 12. Zelensky highlighted plans to sign a 27th security agreement, focusing on brigade manpower, weapons, and equipment. He emphasized the need to pressure Russia and stressed the importance of combining military and diplomatic efforts for Ukraine's "victory plan." Euronews

Putin Says Russia Will Achieve 'All Goals Set' in War Against Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin vowed Monday that Russia would achieve its goals in the war against Ukraine, stating that "the truth is on our side." In a video message marking the second anniversary of Russia's attempted annexation of four Ukrainian regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—he reiterated his justification for the invasion, claiming to protect Russian speakers from a "neo-Nazi dictatorship" in Kyiv. Putin also criticized the West for turning Ukraine into a "military base aimed at Russia" and emphasized that Russia is fighting for a secure future. Moscow Times

Russia trumpets 'positives' of Ukraine war. Russia marked the second anniversary Monday of its claimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—with concerts and parades. On Moscow's Red Square, a patriotic concert featured an audience mainly of veterans and VIPs. The annexation, condemned for violating international law, is portrayed by Moscow as the liberation of historical Russian lands. Kremlin-organized referendums, deemed shams by the international community, were used to justify the land grab, the largest in Europe since World War II. SkyNews

G7 aims to finalize deal on $50 billion loan to Ukraine by end of October, EU says. The G7 aims to finalize a $50 billion loan deal for Ukraine by the end of October, with funds available by year's end. The loan will be serviced using profits from Russian assets frozen in the West, with the European Union contributing up to €35 billion. The U.S. seeks assurance on the availability of funds from these assets. The EU plans to extend the asset freeze period to 36 months to address concerns. Reuters

‘Everything is dead’: Ukraine rushes to stem ecocide after river poisoning. Ukraine suspects Russia of deliberately leaking chemical waste into the Seym River, causing massive ecological damage. A toxic slick, traced to the Russian border, entered the Desna River, poisoning fish, mollusks, and other wildlife. The contamination began in August after intense fighting in the Kursk region, coinciding with Ukraine’s military operations. The waste included ammonia and nitrates from a sugar factory, reducing oxygen levels to near zero. Ukrainian officials labeled it an act of “ecocide,” accusing Russia of using environmental destruction as a war tactic. Recovery may take years, although emergency mitigation efforts are underway. The Guardian

Hungary and Ukraine ministers hold 'frank' talks amid Russia strains. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held a "very frank" discussion Monday with his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto, addressing tensions related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Hungary has maintained economic ties with Russia and refused to send arms to Ukraine, straining relations with NATO and the European Union. Sybiha thanked Hungary for supporting EU sanctions but urged continued backing for Ukraine's peace initiatives, rejecting Russian territorial gains. Szijjarto emphasized Hungary's concerns about energy supply challenges and its interest in Ukraine's reconstruction. The two ministers also discussed the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, noting progress on this issue. Reuters

Ukrainian energy minister censured over response to power grid attacks. Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko faces criticism for delaying efforts to decentralize Ukraine’s energy grid, leaving it vulnerable to Russian attacks. Critics argue that decentralization through smaller, cheaper power stations should have begun after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Instead, Galushchenko prioritized costly nuclear reactors, which take years to build. Although Ukraine has repaired damaged power stations and increased electricity imports from Europe, it still faces power shortages this winter. Experts emphasize the need for decentralization and improved air defense to ensure energy security. Financial Times

German Minister Breaks Ranks on Cruise Missiles for Ukraine. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock supports delivering Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, opposing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's stance. Baerbock, a member of the Greens party, advocates for the missiles to help protect Ukraine’s infrastructure, especially with winter approaching and increased Russian attacks. Scholz, however, fears the long-range missiles could strike deep into Russia, escalating the conflict. While Germany is a major donor of weapons to Ukraine, Scholz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remain against sending the Taurus missiles, emphasizing concerns about drawing Germany directly into the war. Bloomberg

Putin's nuclear talk shouldn't stop NATO backing Ukraine, Stoltenberg says. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg urged NATO allies not to be deterred by Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats and to continue supporting Ukraine with military aid. He dismissed Russia's nuclear rhetoric as a recurring tactic to prevent Western support for Ukraine, highlighting that it has not succeeded in the past. Stoltenberg emphasized the biggest risk is if Putin wins in Ukraine, making NATO more vulnerable. He also noted any negotiated end to the war must include security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression. Stoltenberg hands over leadership to Mark Rutte on Tuesday. Reuters

Turkey should endorse Ukraine’s — not China’s — peace plan, says Stoltenberg. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged full support for Ukraine’s peace plan rather than the Chinese-Brazilian "Friends for Peace" initiative, which Turkey has endorsed. Stoltenberg emphasized that Ukraine’s plan ensures a process for lasting peace and that Ukraine, as the victim of Russia’s invasion, must decide the acceptable conditions. Turkey is the only NATO member backing the Chinese initiative, which Kyiv criticized as disappointing. Meanwhile, Switzerland expressed growing interest in the Chinese plan. PoliticoEU

Will Indian ammunition for Ukraine strain Modi’s ties with Putin?  India’s ties with Russia face strain as reports emerge that Ukraine is using Indian-made ammunition purchased through third parties like Italy and the Czech Republic. Despite India’s denial of involvement, Russia questions whether India pressured buyers to prevent these transactions.  While the volume of Indian shells in Ukraine is small, this could test India’s “all-weather” friendship with Russia. The situation may complicate Prime Minister Narendra Modi's peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Al Jazeera

Russian court hands life sentence to man for bomb attack on Russian nationalist writer. A Russian military court sentenced Alexander Permyakov to life in prison for attempting to assassinate nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin in a car bombing in May 2023. Prilepin was injured, and his driver was killed. Permyakov, who holds Russian and Ukrainian passports, confessed, claiming he acted on instructions of the Security Service of Ukraine for $20,000. Prilepin, a vocal supporter of the Ukraine war, is among several pro-war figures targeted in bomb attacks, including Darya Dugina and military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. Reuters

Ukraine ‘disappointed’ at Swiss support for China-Brazil peace plan. Ukraine expressed disappointment with Switzerland’s support for a peace plan proposed by China and Brazil to end the war with Russia. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry criticized the plan for not ensuring the full restoration of its territorial integrity and warned it created a false sense of dialogue while Russia continued its aggression. Switzerland participated in discussions on the plan during the United Nations General Assembly. The U.S. and European allies have rejected the proposal for lacking reference to Ukraine’s sovereignty and the UN Charter. South China Morning Post

American man pleads guilty in Moscow court to charge of fighting for Ukraine. Stephen James Hubbard, a 72-year-old American from Michigan, pleaded guilty in a Moscow court to charges of fighting for Ukraine, marking the first known trial of a U.S. citizen as a mercenary in Russia during the war. Hubbard admitted to being paid $1,000 to fight for Ukraine but was captured by Russian forces in April 2022. His sister denied the mercenary claims, describing him as a pacifist. Hubbard faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted. The Guardian

In Moscow, metro booths seek to attract new volunteers for the Ukrainian front. In Moscow, informational booths have been set up in metro stations to recruit volunteers for the war in Ukraine, offering a salary of around €50,000. Despite the financial incentive, recruitment has seen limited success. The booths, staffed by metro employees, promote both patriotism and financial gain to potential recruits. This recruitment drive, part of the Kremlin's broader propaganda efforts, continues the narrative of defending Russia against alleged threats from Ukraine and NATO. LeMonde

Putin orders the conscription of 133,000 servicemen in Russia's autumn draft. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the conscription of 133,000 new servicemen for Russia’s autumn draft, starting on October 1 and ending in late 2024. The drafted men, aged 18-30, will serve for 12 months within Russia, not in Ukraine’s occupied regions. This comes as Putin aims to grow the Russian army to 1.5 million, citing threats on Russia's western borders. Ukraine and its allies view Russia’s actions, including the war in Ukraine, as imperialist aggression. Reuters

In Ukraine, a US firm tests a promising tool against GPS jammers: cell phones. An American firm is testing a system in Ukraine that networks cell phones to detect Russian GPS jamming. By leveraging phones’ sensors and special software, they can locate jamming devices, providing a cheaper alternative to costly military equipment. Initial tests showed that consumer phones, when used together, can reveal jamming attempts by detecting abnormal signals. The system could help Ukrainian forces counter Russian electronic warfare, improving drone operations and offering a quick, affordable solution for smaller militaries like Ukraine’s. The research aims to triangulate jammer locations for more effective responses eventually. Defense One

Recurring failures to launch Satan ICBM throw a shadow on Putin's nuclear saber-rattling.-r Russia’s development of the RS-28 Sarmat (Satan II) ICBM, introduced by President Vladimir Putin as a strategic weapon, faces significant setbacks. Despite claims that the missile is operational, satellite imagery from a Russian launch site revealed a large explosion, casting doubt on these assertions. This incident marks the fourth failed test, raising concerns about Russia’s nuclear capabilities. Experts suggest that aging technology, reliance on decommissioned parts, and potential Western sanctions contribute to the delays in modernizing Russia's missile fleet, undermining Putin’s nuclear threats. Kyiv Independent

Kyiv's defense chief dismisses deputies in reshuffle. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Tuesday that he dismissed three deputy ministers and the ministry secretary. Umerov emphasized his commitment to tackling corruption, particularly in the procurement system, by working closely with law enforcement. The reshuffle could streamline military operations and governance, potentially strengthening its response to Russia’s war. Reuters

CERN ends cooperation with Russian scientists. CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, announced it will end cooperation with up to 500 scientists affiliated with Russian institutions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The collaboration will end when the agreement expires on Nov. 30. CERN has also stopped working with Belarusian scientists. Russian scientists can still collaborate with CERN if affiliated with non-Russian institutions. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, September 30, 2024. The Russian government plans to allocate $183 billion to national security and defense in 2025, 41% of its total expenditures. President Vladimir Putin promoted Alexei Dyumin and other officials to the Russian Security Council, indicating a generational shift. The Kremlin uses awards to co-opt critical military bloggers. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Iran to enhance economic cooperation. Putin signed a decree on Russia’s semi-annual fall conscription for 133,000 draftees.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced in Glushkvosky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: The Abandonment of Ukraine. The U.S. strategy in Ukraine, providing just enough aid to prevent defeat but not enough to secure victory, is slowly bleeding the country dry. Authors Karl Marlantes and Elliot Ackerman, both Marine Corps veterans, describe their visit to war-torn areas, highlighting Ukraine's innovation on the battlefield. Despite Ukrainian advances, delays in Western weapons deliveries and slow U.S. adaptation to battlefield innovations hinder Ukraine’s progress, risking eventual defeat. The authors criticize the U.S. for withholding necessary support, warning that such a strategy contributes to Ukraine’s suffering. The Atlantic

Opinion: Don’t underestimate the risks of escalation over Ukraine. David Ignatius argues that President Joe Biden's caution in Ukraine, particularly avoiding long-range missile strikes into Russia, is prudent to prevent escalation into superpower conflict. While critics view Biden's restraint as weakness, Ignatius supports the president's measured actions, citing intelligence warnings about the risks of escalation. Ignatius emphasizes that Biden should continue to bolster Ukraine’s defense but avoid reckless decisions that could provoke a dangerous response from Russia, reminiscent of Cold War tensions. Washington Post

Opinion: Poland’s foreign minister says China should shut down the Ukraine war. In an interview with Lally Weymouth, Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski emphasized the need for the West to remain steadfast in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. He stressed that the war would end when Vladimir Putin realizes he cannot win at an acceptable cost. Sikorski urged China to stop aiding Russia and help end the war. He also highlighted Poland's strong defense spending and humanitarian support for Ukraine, warning that failing to stop Putin now would only make him more dangerous. Washington Post

Opinion: Why do Russians appear so satisfied despite the war in Ukraine? Vladislav Inozemtsev argues that despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russians—particularly in affluent cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg—seem unaffected and even prosperous. Western luxuries may have diminished, but urban modernization, rising wages, and economic investments have insulated these regions from discontent. Inozemtsev attributes this to Russia’s individualized society, focused on personal economic gains, and suggests that Western sanctions have inadvertently strengthened support for Vladimir Putin by enhancing economic progress in big cities. The Hill

Opinion: A Ukraine Cease-Fire Might Do More Harm Than Good. The Bloomberg Editorial Board argues that a cease-fire in Ukraine could harm Ukraine and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin. A truce would give Russia time to regroup and plan further attacks, potentially weakening Western support for Ukraine. The editors emphasize that the West must continue supporting Ukraine with air defense, ammunition, and long-range missiles to shift Putin’s cost-benefit calculation. Additionally, they advocate for credible security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression. Bloomberg

Opinion: Why doesn’t Ukraine have a national military cemetery? Tim Mak and Oleh Tymoshenko highlight Ukraine’s failure to establish a national military cemetery despite over a decade of war. Families like Vira Lytvynenko’s, whose son died near Mariupol in 2022, are left waiting for a proper resting place. Delays, corruption, and design controversies plague the project. Some families have already buried their loved ones locally, while others continue to wait, demanding more transparency and respect for those who sacrificed their lives for Ukraine’s independence.Kyiv Independent

AMERICAS

Biden administration trying to derail military cooperation among Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The Biden administration has been raising alarm at the United Nations General Assembly and with allies about the coalition of pariah powers coalescing to aid one another’s militaries and defeat the U.S. and its partners.  At a UN Security Council meeting, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the council’s priority should stop the ballistic missiles, drones and artillery shells moving from North Korea and Iran to Russia. He criticized China for selling Russia machine tools, microelectronics and other military and dual-use technologies.   New York Times 

U.S. criticizes 'unsafe' Russian fighter jet encounter near Alaska. The U.S. military published footage on Monday showing what it described as an unsafe maneuver by a Russian Su-35 fighter jet near Alaska during a routine intercept last week. While such intercepts between American and Russian aircraft in international airspace near Alaska are typically safe and professional, this incident was unusual. Air Force General Gregory Guillot criticized the Russian jet's actions as unprofessional and dangerous. On Sept. 23, four Russian military aircraft were detected operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone; this activity occurs regularly and is not considered a threat, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Moscow has not commented on the incident yet. Reuters Associated Press CNN

U.N. prolongs Kenya-led police force to fight Haiti’s gang violence. Following an unanimous vote on Monday, the U.N. Security Council extended the mandate of the Kenya-led multinational force addressing gang violence in Haiti until 2025. Despite Haiti's call to transform the mission into a U.N. peacekeeping operation, China and Russia successfully removed that proposal from the resolution. The Kenyan force, supported by officers from Jamaica, is severely underfunded and has fewer personnel than the 2,500 pledged by various nations. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield stressed the need for additional financial support and signaled ongoing efforts by Washington to work toward a U.N. peacekeeping mission. However, Beijing and Moscow opposed the idea, arguing that peacekeeping operations in Haiti have previously been ineffective. The resolution encourages the mission to accelerate deployment and seek further contributions to restore security in Haiti, where violence has surged in the indigent nation since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021. Associated Press U.N. News Al Jazeera France 24

Thousands of Haitians are starving in gang-ravaged nation as hunger reaches famine levels.  According to a Monday report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, almost 6,000 people in gang-dominated Haiti are on the brink of starvation, with nearly half of the population, over 5.4 million people, experiencing crisis levels of hunger or worse. Chronic gang violence has disrupted food supply routes and prevented people from leaving their homes. This, compounded with double-digit inflation and previous natural disasters such as droughts and a 2021 earthquake, have worsened the situation. The U.N. and nonprofit organizations are calling for increased funding to address the growing humanitarian crisis. Many families, especially those in makeshift shelters, are struggling to access food, with some relying on minimal meals or aid when available. One young mother described the “major” fights that occur when organizations make food deliveries, while another said she rarely gets one meal a day. The Kenya-led U.N.-backed mission has made some progress in curbing gang violence, but much more support is needed to restore stability and address the country’s widespread hunger.  Associated Press Reuters 

Scientist Claudia Sheinbaum to step into role as first woman president of Mexico. 62-year-old former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become the nation’s first female president, taking office on Tuesday with a pledge to continue her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s focus on supporting the poor and maintaining social policies. However, she faces immediate challenges, including Mexico’s high levels of cartel violence, economic struggles, and the aftermath of devastating hurricanes. Sheinbaum, who won the presidency with nearly 60% of the vote, also faces potential tensions with the U.S., with GOP nominee Donald Trump threatening tariffs and mass deportations. Despite inheriting unfinished projects and a strained budget, Sheinbaum could push for new initiatives, though her options are limited by financial constraints. While her election is historic and inspiring, some warn that unrealistic expectations might lead to disappointment given the magnitude of the obstacles she must surmount. Associated Press Washington Post 

Army confiscates guns, removes police from streets in Mexico’s Culiacan. Local police in Culiacan, Mexico, have been removed from the streets after the army seized their weapons for inspection, following weeks of deadly cartel clashes. This action came a day after 1,500 residents marched for peace, calling for an end to the violence between two factions of the Sinaloa cartel, the “Chapitos” and the “Mayitos.” The army, state police, and National Guard are now patrolling the city while the 1,000-member municipal police force awaits the return of their weapons. In the past, Mexico’s army has taken the weapons of police officers that they cannot trust, either due to suspected corruption or the fact that they may be using unregistered, private arms. The Mexican government has deployed hundreds of army soldiers to Culiacan as the situation escalates, with cartels hijacking and burning vehicles, and leaving bizarre factional markers, like pizza and cowboy hats, on the corpses of their competitors. Associated Press 

Leaders depart UN facing prospect of a wider Mideast war — but with a blueprint for a better future.   During the annual U.N. General Assembly, world leaders gathered amidst growing fears of escalating conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Sudan. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres and others emphasized the need to revive multilateralism—a cooperative approach among nations that seems to be faltering. Although no major breakthroughs were expected, the meeting's tone was somber, as Israeli military action in Lebanon and the broader conflict in Gaza intensified. Despite the gloom, a "Pact for the Future" was adopted, offering a blueprint to address pressing global issues like climate change, artificial intelligence, and inequality. However, there remains uncertainty about whether this agreement will lead to tangible actions. While leaders expressed concern about the state of global cooperation, some, like U.S. President Joe Biden, called for optimism, reflecting on past global achievements and urging hope for progress. Associated Press 

EUROPE

New NATO chief Mark Rutte steps into role, navigating the alliance’s future amid global tensions. Mark Rutte, NATO's new secretary-general, is facing significant challenges as he assumes the role of chief amid mounting global tensions; he will need to maneuver around the war in Ukraine, concerns about Russian aggression, and political uncertainty in the U.S., all while building consensus among NATO’s 32 members and pushing for increased defense spending. Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, must manage eastern European calls for more troops and defense systems to counter Russia, as well as Kyiv’s plea for military aid. He will also have to focus on maintaining Washington’s support in European security, particularly with the possibility of a GOP administration. Rutte is known for his coalition-building skills and hands-on leadership, which will be crucial in maintaining NATO's political unity and rallying support for Ukraine. However, he may need to adapt his approach, especially when persuading nations to increase defense spending. His ability to combine diplomacy with firmness, as demonstrated in previous encounters with world leaders like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, will be key in shaping NATO's strategy and securing its future stability. Reuters Politico  

Lithuania goes after Belarus, citing crimes against humanity over repression and submitting regime to ICC. Lithuania has referred Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, his government, and military officials to the International Criminal Court (ICC), alleging that they committed crimes against humanity by launching a brutal oppression campaign against the population. The request throws the forced deportations and persecution of Belarusian citizens into the spotlight, particularly after a harsh crackdown on opposition groups since 2020 following Lukashenko’s contested re-election. Hundreds of thousands fled the country, with many opposition leaders imprisoned or exiled. Lithuania claims the regime aimed to eliminate critics to solidify its authoritarian rule as part of a “widespread and systematic attack” on civilians. The ICC will conduct a preliminary investigation. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya praised the referral as a crucial step toward justice for Belarus. Associated Press Reuters Ukrainska Pravda  

19 arrested in Italy for links to Ndrangheta mafia. Italian police arrested 19 individuals linked to the powerful 'Ndrangheta mafia, significantly affecting the fan clubs supporting Serie A teams Inter Milan and AC Milan. The suspects face charges such as criminal association, extortion, and assault, with prosecutors claiming they tried to control business activities around Milan's San Siro stadium, including parking, food, and tickets. Italy’s anti-mafia prosecutor said the investigation underscores the dangers of mafia infiltration in soccer, with notable arrests including leaders of the "ultras" fan groups and figures. ‘Ndrangheta, the organization targeted in this investigation, has in recent years become one of the most powerful crime networks in the world, competing against the notorious Sicilian mob. Associated Press La Repubblica La Stampa

Russia declines to sign replacement for nuclear pact with U.S. Russia has decided against signing a new treaty with the U.S. to replace the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which is set to expire in 2026, according to a report in Izvestia. This treaty is the last major agreement between the two countries aimed at limiting nuclear weapons and ensuring transparency. In 2023, President Vladimir Putin suspended Moscow’s participation in the treaty due to Washington’s support for Ukraine, although both nations have continued adhering to the treaty's limits on nuclear warheads and delivery systems. The unnamed Russian source cited by the newspaper stated that no new treaty would be signed, attributing this decision to U.S. support for Kyiv. Reuters 

MIDDLE EAST

Ship targeted in Red Sea; Yemen’s Houthi rebels suspected. Suspected Houthi rebel attacks targeted at least one commercial ship in the Red Sea on Tuesday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center. Two separate attacks from missile or drone launches occurred near the port city of Hodeida, though no casualties were reported. It is not yet known if the same vessel came under attack twice, or if a second ship was targeted. The Houthis, who regularly wait hours or days to confirm an assault, have not yet taken responsibility. Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Vietnamese fishing boat attacked by foreign vessel near disputed South China Sea islands, fishermen wounded. A Vietnamese fishing boat experienced an attack by a foreign vessel in the South China Sea on Sunday, leaving at least 10 fishermen wounded, three of them with broken arms and legs. Vietnam’s state media reported the incident on Monday, but did not describe the foreign vessel or how the fishing boat was attacked. The assault occurred near the disputed Paracel Islands, territory claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi. Neither Vietnamese nor Chinese foreign ministries have yet commented on the situation. Reuters Associated Press Radio Free Asia

China carrying out military patrols in parts of South China Sea. The Southern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted combat readiness patrols in parts of the South China Sea from Monday to Tuesday, continuing military exercises from the weekend. These patrols, which aim to improve combat capabilities and maintain regional stability, followed Saturday’s naval and air force maneuvers near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which coincided with joint maritime exercises planned by Australia, the Philippines, Japan, New Zealand, and the U.S. Reuters 

South Korea showcases most powerful missile, capable of penetrating North’s underground bunkers. South Korea displayed a collection of weaponry, including its most powerful ballistic missile, the Hyunmoo-5, during a massive Armed Forces Day ceremony on Tuesday. President Yoon Suk Yeol gave a speech warning that if North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it would face an “overwhelming” response from the South Korean and U.S. alliance, which would result in the end of Pyongyang’s regime. The ceremony featured about 340 military equipment and weapons systems, including a flyover by a U.S. B-1B bomber, which demonstrated Washington’s commitment to Seoul’s security. South Korea also launched its strategic command to integrate conventional capabilities with U.S. nuclear weapons, although it does not possess its own nuclear arsenal. Associated Press Reuters 

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida resigns, likely successor Shigeru Ishiba elected. Shigeru Ishiba was elected as Japan’s new prime minister by parliament on Tuesday, following the resignation of Fumio Kishida, who stepped down after his administration faced corruption scandals. Ishiba, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), plans to call a parliamentary election for October 27 to secure public support for his government. Ishiba aims to continue Kishida’s economic policies while addressing Japan’s declining population and natural disaster preparedness. He has also proposed an "Asian NATO" and joint management of U.S. military bases with Japan to counter threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. Associated Press Reuters 

AFRICA

UN reports Congo rebels making $300,000 every month in captured mining zone. Rebels linked to the Tutsi-led M23 movement in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have seized control of the Rubaya coltan-mining region, generating an estimated $300,000 monthly from taxing production. The area produces over 15% of the global supply of tantalum, a key mineral for smartphones and computers. The U.N. Security Council on Monday heard that the M23 organization, allegedly backed by Rwanda, took control of the region in April after a period of fierce conflict. The illegal trade of minerals strengthens armed groups militarily and financially, exploiting civilians and hindering peace efforts. The conflict in eastern Congo, worsened by the M23 resurgence in 2022, has led to thousands of deaths and over a million displaced. The U.N. urges international sanctions to curb the trade and prevent further suffering. Reuters U.N. News  

There were 25,000 victims of sexual violence in Congo last year, says aid group. More than 25,000 sexual violence victims were treated by Doctors Without Borders in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2023, mostly in the conflict-ridden eastern region and particularly around displacement camps near Goma, North Kivu. The aid group on Monday reported that most victims, averaging over two per hour, were assaulted at gunpoint. Violence, the result of over 120 armed groups, continues to plague the nation, and conflict is fueled by constant power struggles. Congo accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, which has contributed to the region's instability. Human Rights Watch has also reported abuses by both Rwandan and Congolese forces. Sexual violence remains rampant, exacerbated by poor living conditions and a weak humanitarian response. Associated Press Doctors without Borders

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

California governor vetoes broad legislation on AI safety, tech firm oversight.  Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vetoed a sweeping bill passed by the California legislature that would have established standards and requirements for the safe development of AI.  Opponents of the legislation, which included major tech firms, warned that the bill’s provisions could dampen innovation in California.  Newsome said the legislation was “well intentioned” but would have imposed strict rules “on even the most basic functions.”  The governor argued that AI regulation should derive from “empirical evidence and science.”  The state senator who introduced the bill described the governor’s rejection as a “setback” for those favoring oversight of “massive corporations.”  Sen. Scott Wiener remarked that “we are all less safe as a result.”  SB 1047 would have required AI developers to take precautions against “severe harm” by their products, including deaths, injuries, and property damage.  Tech firms would be required to operate a “kill switch” that could disable their applications.  Whistleblowers at AI companies also would have received protection for sharing concerns about safety.   Wiener pointed out that the bill’s provisions are limited to companies spending more that $100 million for large language model training, exempting most small startup firms.  Bloomberg   Wall Street Journal   Reuters   Washington Post

FBI, other agencies issue advisory on Iran-backed attacks on personal, business email.  On the heels of a federal indictment of three Iranian nationals accused of carrying out a “hack-and-leak” operation against the campaign of former President Donald Trump, a joint advisory has been issued warning of attacks on personal email accounts by Iranian threat actors.  The FBI was joined by U.S. Cyber Command, the Treasury Department, and Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) in issuing the advisory that described how actors supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) employ social engineering techniques to breach personal and business accounts.  A variety of lures are used in the operations, including impersonating known individuals or family members, masquerading as email service providers seeking account information, and extending bogus invitations to conferences and embassy events.  The advisory warns individuals to be aware of social engineering and spoofing tactics, especially unsolicited emails with attachments. It also advises organizations to undertake mitigation steps such as training, email security controls, and multi-factor authentication.  Cybernews   FBI

Counter-ransomware summit to announce initiatives, welcome new members.  A counter-ransomware summit sponsored by the White House will be held this week in an ongoing effort to stem the flood of ransomware attacks that have become a global issue.  Anne Neuberger, the Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology, said the multinational members of the Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI), along with the private sector, will establish a counter-ransomware fund to be administered by the USAID agency.  The CRI also is expected to expand to all members supply chain cybersecurity measures based on a successful pilot carried out by G7 states.  In addition, this week’s summit will feature presentations on the intersection of AI and cyber from leading U.S. AI companies and government agencies.  The CRI also will accept new members, expanding to representation from 68 countries.  Laura Galante, the director of the cyberthreat intelligence integration center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), noted the steady rise in ransomware attacks over several years: “ In 2022 we saw 2,593 attacks per year, then in 2023 we saw 4,506 attacks. Here in the first half of 2024, we’re tracking 2,321 attacks.”  Galante remarked that “because so many of the individuals are Russia-based, disrupting the actors is very challenging.”  She pointed out that no single operation can disrupt ransomware threat but that a successful strategy may rest in increasing the frequency and expanding the scope of counter-ransomware operations, which involves “taking down infrastructure regularly, designating the exchanges that are facilitating money laundering and ransomware activity regularly.”  Politico   The Record

New Commerce chip export rule simplifies deliveries to Middle East data centers.  The Commerce Department has announced a rule that could result in loosened restrictions on exports of AI chips to data centers in the Middle East.  Under the new Commerce procedure, data centers will apply for “Validated End User” status to import chips rather than requiring suppliers to acquire licenses for each delivery.  Under the new process, U.S. authorities will work with foreign data centers and their host governments to ensure that the technology exports remain safe and secure.  Commerce said that stringent reviews will be conducted of data center applicants to ensure technology safeguards are in place.  Applicants will need to agree to reporting requirements as well as on-site inspections by U.S. representatives.  Host nations may be required to provide assurances concerning the security of exported technology.   G42, the AI firm that recently concluded an investment deal worth $1.5 billion from Microsoft, did not immediately comment on the development.  G42 operates a number of data centers in the United Arab Emirates.  Reuters

U.S. defense firms trying to reduce dependence on Chinese component supply chain.  Western defense tech firms are striving to develop alternatives to their dependence on China for key manufacturing elements such as batteries, motors, sensors and rare-earth materials.  Private sector efforts are supported by U.S. defense organizations such as the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU).   DIU project manager Trent Emeneker commented that “we don’t want companies dependent on China. That’s a national security risk. We see that, and we are very clear about that while following the requirements in law.”   Ryan Beall, founder of TILT Autonomy, a drone autonomous systems supplier to the U.S. Navy, pointed to the difficulty of continuing operations while simultaneously guaranteeing needed components: “If your supply chain runs dry, you have nothing to sell,” he said.  The large defense startup, Anduril Industries, has cut acquisitions from China to 0.2% of its total supplier budget, according to CEO Brian Schimpf.  He noted that “if you have too much dependency on China, that’s not a good risk to expose the U.S. government to.”  The confusing environment of changing rules in the U.S. coupled with export restrictions in China have led many defense firms to various workarounds, including shifting manufacturing to Southeast Asia, sourcing parts from Mexico, and building components in the U.S.  Wall Street Journal

Chinese research team reports breakthrough with long-endurance nuclear battery.  Chinese scientists report the development of a nuclear-powered battery equipped with a photovoltaic cell that could provide electricity for hundreds of years at extremely high efficiency.  According to a recent research paper, the researchers harnessed alpha rays emitted by decaying radioactive isotopes while most prior research has employed beta radiation.  Alpha-radioisotopes are considered more suited to a micro nuclear battery because of their high decay energy output.  Researchers from two Chinese universities and the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology have designed a nuclear battery with an “inbuilt energy converter” – a polymer layer surrounding the isotopes that transmits the energy released during radiation by converting it into light and then electricity, just like a photovoltaic cell.  The team reports that their device converts radioactivity into electrical energy with an extraordinarily long lifespan that performs independently of temperature variations.  The Chinese newspaper, Science and Technology Daily, described the achievement as “one of the significant breakthroughs in the nuclear battery field in recent decades.”  South China Morning Post

Sources say ByteDance plans new LLM trained with Huawei AI chips.  ByteDance, the parent company of the TikTok social media platform, reportedly will develop an AI model trained with Huawei Technologies AI chips as an alternative to chips produced by Western manufacturers such as Nvidia.  ByteDance has expanded its roster of domestic chip suppliers in response to U.S. restrictions on chip exports.  ByteDance will use Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip, sources say, to train a large language model (LLM).  The company already uses the 910B chip on less intensive computing tasks.  The new LLM, sources report, will not be as powerful as ByteDance’s current Doubao AI model.  However, Michael Hughes, a TikTok spokesman in Washington, said on behalf of ByteDance, that the reports are incorrect.  “No new model is being developed," he said.  Neither Huawei nor ByteDance responded to requests for comment.  In addition to Huawei products, ByteDance is the largest Chinese customer for Nvidia's H20 AI chip, which has been modified for the China market to meet export restrictions.  Reuters   South China Morning Post

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The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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