Report for Tuesday, May 21, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Israeli army raids West Bank's Jenin, Palestinians say seven killed

Zelensky urges West to pick up the pace on aid for Ukraine.

Top U.S. general in Afghanistan at Taliban takeover warned it would get ‘very bad, very fast.’

EPA warns of increasing cyberattacks against U.S. water utilities

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING – Iran Power Struggle Looms After President’s Death

OPINION – Senators Take On the Navy’s Top Officer - and He Fights Back

OPINION – Rumors are Flying Around Erdogan’s ‘Non-Visit’

OPINION – Profiling Leaders from Afar, To Anticipate the World’s Next Moves

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

ICC prosecutor ask for warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, Sinwar for war crimes.  International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan requested arrest warrants on Monday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defense minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh. The charge: war crimes and crimes against humanity.  Warrants must be approved by a panel of three judges.  Netanyahu denounced the charges against himself and Gallant as absurd. "I reject with disgust the comparison of the prosecutor in the Hague between democratic Israel and the mass murderers of Hamas," Netanyahu said. "With what audacity do you compare Hamas that murdered, burned, butchered, decapitated, raped and kidnapped our brothers and sisters with the IDF soldiers fighting a just war unlike any other."  He added that “the attempt to tie our hands will fail” and that “no pressure and no decision in any international forum will prevent us from striking those who seek to destroy us.”  Hamas leaders also issued a statement saying that the Palestinian people and all those living “under occupation” have a “right to resist … with all their might, including armed resistance.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. does not believe the ICC has jurisdiction over the matter.  “The ICC was established by its state parties as a court of limited jurisdiction,” Blinken said. “Those limits are rooted in principles of complementarity, which do not appear to have been applied here amid the Prosecutor’s rush to seek these arrest warrants rather than allowing the Israeli legal system a full and timely opportunity to proceed.”  President Joe Biden called the ICC’s decision “outrageous” and said, “there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas.” At an event celebrating Jewish American Heritage Month, Biden added that what’s happening in Gaza “is not genocide. We reject that.”  Several European countries, including France and Belgium, released statements supporting the ICC’s move.  ICC Reuters Forbes Washington Post The Hill  France24 Financial Times Washington Post Wall Street Journal Politico Bloomberg Reuters Reuters Al Jazeera 

Israeli army raids West Bank's Jenin, Palestinians say seven killed.  Israeli forces conducted a significant military raid in Jenin, West Bank, resulting in the deaths of seven Palestinians, including a doctor and a teacher. The operation, which began in the early morning and involved heavy military presence including armored bulldozers and at least 20 vehicles, targeted areas known for militant activity with groups such as Hamas, Fatah, and Islamic Jihad. Witnesses reported indiscriminate shooting at any movement, intensifying the violence in a region already tense from a year-long escalation in hostilities. The raid affected the local Jenin hospital, encircled by Israeli forces, complicating medical responses and indicating further military buildup. This incident adds to the extensive casualties and arrests over the past several months in the West Bank, amid ongoing confrontations that have also seen retaliatory attacks by Palestinians against Israelis.  Reuters

Trump foreign policy advisors meet Netanyahu. Three former U.S. foreign policy officials in Donald Trump's administration met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders on Monday, Reuters reported.  The officials included Robert O'Brien, Trump's fourth and final national security adviser, former Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates John Rakolta, and former Ambassador to Switzerland Ed McMullen.  The group also met with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid.  Reuters

Nearly 600 tons of aid delivered to Gaza across U.S. military-built pier.  The U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that more than 569 metric tons of humanitarian assistance was delivered to Gaza across the temporary floating pier just completed by the U.S. military. Aid deliveries began arriving at the pier Friday.  The U.N. said that 10 truckloads of food aid were transported from the pier site by U.N. contractors to a World Food Programme warehouse in Deir El Balah in Gaza.  On Saturday, only five truckloads made it to the warehouse, and 11 others were cleaned out by Palestinians during the journey.  "They've not seen trucks for a while," a U.N. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. "They just basically mounted on the trucks and helped themselves to some of the food parcels." The U.N. did not receive any aid from the pier on Sunday or Monday. "We need to make sure that the necessary security and logistical arrangements are in place before we proceed," said the U.N. official. CENTCOM Reuters

UN, Egyptian officials say aid to Gaza blocked.  Senior U.N. aid official Edem Wosornu told the U.N. Security Council that Israel’s closure of Rafah crossing from Egypt stopped delivery of at least 82,000 metric tonnes of aid, and Israel's Kerem Shalom crossing admitted only a trickle of aid due to "hostilities, challenging logistical conditions, and complex coordination procedures." International aid deliveries have been stuck on the Egyptian side of the border. Egypt's foreign minister Sameh Shoukry told reporters that aid deliveries through the Rafah crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip had been stopped by Egypt for fear that Israel's military operation in Rafah poses a danger to humanitarian workers.  "Now there is a military presence on the outskirts of the Rafah crossing and military operations that put aid convoys and truck drivers in danger," Shoukry said.  In northern Gaza, where the U.N. warns of imminent famine, Wosornu said the Erez crossing had been closed since May 9 and the newly-opened Erez West crossing "is now being used for limited quantities of aid, but now areas in the vicinity of this crossing are also under evacuation orders" by Israel.  Reuters Reuters

Palestinians ordered to evacuate from Rafah lack food, water, sanitation.  The United Nations estimates that nearly 800,000 people have left Rafah since May 6, acting on Israeli evacuation orders. Many have ended up in Al-Mawasi, a desolate stretch of beach. Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the U.N.’s agency for Palestinian refugees, warned Saturday that  people are being forced to flee to places that don’t have safe water supplies or sanitation facilities. Al-Mawasi “lacks the minimal conditions to provide emergency humanitarian assistance in a safe and dignified manner,” he said. “The place is crammed and cannot absorb more people.” Families cook over open fires, burning trash.  Garbage piles up, and sewage is dumped in the sea.  Wall Street Journal

Blinken orders crackdown on leaks about Israel-Hamas truce talks.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken ordered his top staff to crack down on leaks about diplomacy relating to the Israel-Hamas war.  He said he was “angry” with the constant stream of press reports containing sensitive information. He said some stories contained classified information and others contained inside information on talks aimed at brokering a cease-fire and releasing hostages.  Blinken’s remarks reflect intense frustrations within the Biden team over the stalled hostage talks and delays in delivering humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians.  Senior State officials were angered by press reports that lower-level aides believed that Israel’s use of U.S.-provided weapons was in violation of international law.  Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia advances near Chasiv Yar.  Russia has intensified its military operations in eastern Ukraine, specifically targeting the strategically significant town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. The attacks, which have included the use of tanks and infantry-fighting vehicles, are part of a broader Russian effort to exert pressure on Kyiv by creating multiple fronts, including a new offensive north of Kharkiv.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described the situation as a "challenging moment" for Ukrainian forces, who are engaged in a "hard fight" and adjusting their defenses in response to Russia’s advances. The Institute for the Study of War noted marginal Russian advances near Chasiv Yar, and Ukrainian forces managed to repel attacks and destroy a Russian column of vehicles, highlighting the ongoing fierce resistance against Russian forces.  Bloomberg

Ukrainians cling on in pitched battle for Vovchansk in Kharkiv region.  Ukraine holds 60% of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region after house-to-house combat against Russian forces, Ukrainian authorities reported on Monday.  Fighting continues as Russia aims to solidify its position in the north while stretching Ukrainian defenses in the south and east.  The battle lines are now divided by the Vovcha River, which cuts through the town. Russian attacks have heavily damaged Vovchansk, with high casualties reported on both sides.  Deputy Governor Roman Semenukha said local authorities had evacuated around 10,500 people from the border areas since May 10 amid Russia’s new assault in the region.  Politico Reuters

Russia claims full control of Bilohorivka, Ukraine reports fighting around settlement. On Monday, Russia claimed full control of Bilohorivka in Ukraine's Luhansk region, while Ukraine reported ongoing fighting in the area. The Russian Defense Ministry stated their forces had improved positions. Ukraine's General Staff confirmed repelling three attacks near Siversk and resistance around Bilohorivka.  Reuters

Russian forces concentrating near Ukraine’s northern Sumy region.  Russian forces are concentrating understaffed and incohesive units in the Sumy direction to draw Ukrainian forces at the international border, according to Ukrainian sources. On Monday, a Ukrainian brigade deputy commander reported the accumulation of Russian and Chechen forces near Sumy. Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted the presence of 9,000–10,000 Russian personnel, including motorized rifle, tank, infantry, and airborne battalions. This strategy aims to stretch Ukrainian defenses along a wider front. Institute for the Study of War

Did Ukraine sink a Russian warship with ATACMS rockets?  Ukraine reportedly sank the Russian minesweeper Kovrovets on Sunday using American-supplied ATACMS rockets, signaling an upgrade in its military capabilities. This strike in Sevastopol, Crimea, hints that Ukraine may possess the 170-mile M48 or 190-mile M57 ATACMS models with 470-pound warheads, known for their high precision.  This development threatens the remaining Russian Black Sea Fleet and the strategic Kerch Bridge.  “If ATACMS are taking out Russian warships in Sevastopol, hard to see the base having much utility left for the Russians,” pointed out Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.  The inability of Russian defenses to intercept ATACMS highlights their vulnerability, with key supply lines for Russian forces in Crimea at risk.  Russian naval assets are also at greater risk; in 27 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Ukrainians have sunk or badly damaged more than a dozen of the Black Sea Fleet’s pre-war force of around three dozen large warships.  Forbes

Read Will American ATACMS Help Ukraine Win the War? exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Zelensky urges West to pick up the pace on aid for Ukraine.  In a Reuters interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration over delays in Western military support amidst escalating conflicts along Ukraine's extensive front lines. As Moscow intensifies its military aggression, particularly towards Chasiv Yar and Kharkiv, Zelensky is urging for more direct involvement from Western allies, including intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine. He highlighted the need for quicker deployment of promised weapons and ammunition from the U.S., emphasizing the strategic necessity of aerial defense against Russian assaults. Zelensky also criticized the international response as inadequate, voicing concerns over the potential escalation and the general acceptance of Ukrainian casualties without sufficient counteraction. He also discussed the strategic military needs of Ukraine, including the deployment of F-16 jets. Amidst ongoing negotiations and international dialogues, Zelensky remains committed to pushing for a unified stance against Russian advances, advocating for a collective international effort to pressure Moscow into reconsidering its aggressive tactics.  Reuters Reuters 

German foreign minister visits Kyiv.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday in the latest show of Western support for Ukraine.  She renewed calls for Western allies to provide more military aid, especially air defenses, to Ukraine.  Germany recently pledged to send a third U.S.-made Patriot battery for Ukraine, but Kyiv says it needs much more to counter Russian assaults.  Baerbock toured a thermal power plant damaged by Russian attacks.  She was supposed to visit Kharkiv but did not do so due to security reasons amid Russia’s offensive in the region.   Kyiv Independent Associated Press 

Yellen urges E.U. cooperation on frozen Russian assets.   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called on European allies to collaborate with the U.S. to leverage approximately $280 billion in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.  Yellen emphasized the urgency of using these assets for Ukraine’s benefit, suggesting options like seizing the assets, securitizing them for debt issues, or using them as loan collateral.  The discussions about the utilization of these assets and the implications for international financial stability and legal considerations are expected to be key topics at the upcoming G-7 finance ministers' meeting in Italy. Additionally, Yellen advocated for tighter sanctions against Russia, targeting sanction evasion and the misuse of sensitive goods originating from the U.S. and Europe. Bloomberg

U.S., allies discuss Ukraine’s air defense, but no new aid announced.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized the critical need for robust air-defense systems to help Ukraine combat Russian aerial assaults, amid a new Russian offensive in Ukraine's northeast. In a Pentagon briefing, Austin stressed ongoing efforts to fortify Ukraine's ability to protect its citizens and infrastructure from attacks, though no new aid was announced during the meeting. Despite the recent support from the U.S. – including a $2 billion package to bolster Ukraine's defense industry and a $6 billion package through the USAI for future military needs – concerns persist about the adequacy of Ukrainian air defenses and the restrictions on the use of U.S.-provided weapons against targets within Russia.  Stars and Stripes

U.S. has no plan to send military trainers into Ukraine, top general says.  The U.S. has no plans to send military trainers into Ukraine until the war with Russia ends, General Charles Q. Brown Jr. said on Monday. This statement comes after France suggested sending troops to train Ukrainian forces. The U.S. and its allies provide weapons, intelligence, and training from outside Ukraine.  Supporters of NATO training within Ukraine say it will significantly lessen time needed to train Ukrainian troops, who currently have to travel to other parts of Europe for training.  Reuters

Estonia PM says NATO training in Ukraine doesn’t escalate war.  Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas argues that NATO allies should not fear escalating tensions by sending troops to Ukraine for training purposes, emphasizing that such support does not automatically trigger NATO's mutual defense clause. In a Financial Times interview, she points out that existing military assistance in Ukraine by some countries does not lead to direct conflict with Russia, countering the fears of further engagement. Kallas underscores the strategic necessity of training Ukrainian forces within their own country to efficiently bolster their defense against superior Russian forces. She highlights the broader implications for European security, particularly for Baltic states, stressing the importance of a robust Ukrainian defense to deter potential Russian aggression towards NATO's eastern members.

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna suggested to The Cipher Brief that NATO should expand its military support of Ukraine since Putin is afraid of the alliance.  “We are not talking about sending NATO troops to Ukraine,” Tsahkna said.  “Ukraine is not asking, and we are not planning to send them.  But what about training? What about some other kind of cooperation? [This would make] Putin confused a lot more than he was before.”  Financial Times The Cipher Brief

Read Estonia’s Top Diplomat: Stop Putin Now or Prepare for NATO-Russia War exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Lithuania foreign minister calls for Ukraine to strike Russia with Western weapons.  Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Monday that Ukraine must be allowed to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russian territory, saying that restrictions on such actions are a “mistake.”  "The Ukrainians must be allowed to use the equipment provided to them so that they can achieve strategic objectives," he said.  The U.S. in particular has said it does not support Ukraine using U.S.-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia over concerns that it could escalate to a direct conflict with Moscow.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine struggles to keep the lights on amid Russia’s onslaught.  In response to escalating Russian military aggression targeting Ukraine's power infrastructure, the Ukrainian government has instituted nationwide rolling blackouts to conserve energy, broadening previous localized efforts.  Maxim Timchenko, the CEO of DTEK, Ukraine's largest private electricity provider, described the situation as a critical race against time to restore electricity amidst increasing attacks on power plants. This energy crisis is severely impacting both civilian life and the defense sector's operational capacity, critical during wartime. The situation has prompted Ukraine to seek international assistance, requesting emergency power imports and equipment donations from Western and neighboring countries to sustain its power grid.  Kyiv says the shortage of weaponry and advanced air defense systems like the U.S.-made Patriot exacerbates the challenges.  Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said at The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Economic and Security Forum that Europe in particular has an interest in repairing and defending Ukraine’s power grid to make the country a regional “energy hub” and “battery for Europe.”  New York Times

Read Ukraine’s Energy Minister: We are Moving Towards a Nuclear Accident exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Ukraine's Kyivstar allocated $90 million to deal with cyberattack aftermath. Ukraine's leading mobile operator, Kyivstar, allocated $90 million to address the aftermath of a suspected Russian cyberattack in December, which CEO Oleksandr Komarov called the largest cyberattack on telecom infrastructure globally. The attack disrupted signals for millions, reducing Kyivstar's annual growth by about 3%. Significant funds were used for repairs, system strengthening, and a client loyalty program. Kyivstar has 24.3 million mobile subscribers and over 1.1 million home internet subscribers.  Reuters

Ukrainian women wanted in factories as men drafted into army. As men are drafted into the Ukrainian army, women increasingly fill factory roles, breaking traditional gender roles. Recruitment challenges persist due to military conscription. This workforce shift aims to maintain the production crucial for economic stability and the military as Russia’s war continues. Financial Times

The robots are coming: How Ukraine became the testing ground for AI-powered combat. Ukraine has become a testing ground for AI-powered warfare, drawing global attention from countries like China and the U.S.  “AI-powered drones can do in seconds what would take a human several hours, simply because we are slow to process a large volume of information,” Serhii Kuprienko, Ukrainian drone startup Swarmer’s founder and chief executive, said. “The swarm is effective because one experienced drone pilot can work effectively with dozens of drones simultaneously.” Drones have broadened the buffer zone between Ukrainian and Russian combatants from a couple of kilometers to as much as 20 kilometers, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation Alex Bornyakov told Politico. “Anything you put in this ‘gray area,’ it can be destroyed by drones,” he said.  The pivotal role of drones was acknowledged in February 2024 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky launched a new branch of the military: the Unmanned Systems Forces, entirely dedicated to working with aerial, ground and sea drones.  Ukraine also has projects to foster drone innovation, such as Brave 1, a joint venture encompassing six ministries aiming to develop advanced unmanned systems.  Autonomous killer drones, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and technology chief Mykhailo Fedorov told the Associated Press last year, are “a logical and inevitable next step.”  As Ukraine leverages AI to compensate for manpower shortages and enhance combat efficiency, it faces challenges like Russian electronic warfare, which has contributed to reluctance in Washington to provide Kyiv with American-made Reaper spy drones.  The shift towards AI-driven warfare parallels historical military advancements, with implications for future global conflicts and ongoing debates about the ethics and regulation of autonomous weapons.  Politico

Read Former Top NATO Commander Warns of “Drone Swarm” Threat exclusively in The Cipher Brief

The Americas

Haiti international airport reopens after months-long closure that limited aid.  Haiti's main international airport, Toussaint-Louverture, reopened on Monday for the first time in nearly three months after relentless gang violence had forced authorities to close it. The reopening of the airport in the capital Port-au-Prince is expected to help ease the critical shortage of medications and other basic aid supplies, although the country's main seaport remains severely affected by gangs controlling 80% of the capital.  Associated Press

Top U.S. general in Afghanistan at Taliban takeover warned it would get ‘very bad, very fast.’  Retired General Austin Scott Miller, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan during the 2021 military withdrawal, warned lawmakers that he had repeatedly cautioned Washington about the rapid deterioration of security in the country after the troop departure.  In closed-door testimony last month before the Republican-led House Foreign Affairs Committee, Miller revealed that as his tour was nearing its end in July 2021, he was deeply troubled by the administration's "lack of understanding of the risk" and privately advised a Marine Corps commander to prepare for "really adverse conditions" during a possible evacuation. Miller's testimony, along with that of around 20 other witnesses, is part of the committee's investigation into the U.S. military pull out of Afghanistan, with Chairman Representative Michael McCaul expected to issue a report detailing the findings this summer.  Washington Post

Read Is Afghanistan A Lost Cause for Americans? Observations from One of the Last Americans Out by former CIA Assistant Director for South and Central Asia Dave Pitts, the CIA’s last man on the ground in Afghanistan as U.S. troops withdrew in 2021.

On the go? Listen to From Special Operations to the CIA: Assessing the Complexity of the Global Environment with Dave Pitts on The State Secrets Podcast.  Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Space Force to demonstrate satellite maneuvering in 2026 mission. The Space Force's Space Systems Command, in collaboration with SpaceWERX, the Air Force Research Lab's space innovation arm, has awarded Washington-based Starfish Space a $37.5 million contract for a first-of-its-kind logistics mission scheduled for 2026. The mission hopes to demonstrate the ability to maneuver and service spacecraft in orbit, with Starfish's line of Otter satellites capable of docking with Space Force satellites to perform various functions, such as extending their service life or relocating them to a new orbit.  Defense News

Amphibious combat vehicle’s first deployment may yield repair lessons. The U.S. Marine Corps is closely observing the first maritime deployment of its amphibious combat vehicle (ACV) from a ship during the recent Balikatan exercise in the Philippines, where the vehicle conducted live-fire exercises, to assess the maintenance and operational challenges of extended ship-based operations. This milestone marks a departure from previous land-based tests and introductions, providing the Marine Corps with valuable insights into optimizing the ACV's performance and logistics when operating directly from naval vessels, a critical capability for amphibious operations.  Defense News

PAC-3 MSE launched from virtual Aegis ship hits cruise missile target. A Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) missile successfully intercepted a live target simulating a cruise missile in a recent Lockheed Martin test executed in partnership with multiple U.S. military services. The PAC-3 MSE was launched from an MK-70 containerized launch platform using Lockheed's Virtualized Aegis Weapon System, marking the culmination of Lockheed's effort initiated in 2017 to pursue an upgraded missile capability for the U.S. Navy.  Defense News

F.B.I. sheds informants allegedly linked to Russian intelligence services.  The FBI terminated its relationship with several informants and issued cautions regarding dozens more after an internal assessment raised concerns about potential ties to Russian disinformation campaigns. A 2020-2021 review by the FBI's Counterintelligence Division resulted in the bureau cutting off sources who had provided information on Russian-aligned oligarchs, political figures, and other influential individuals over these concerns, at a time when the FBI was actively seeking intelligence on these networks.  The incident underscores the balance between leveraging informants to access valuable intelligence and the inherent risk of these sources being exploited, wittingly or unwittingly, to disseminate disinformation.  New York Times

Asia and Oceania

China criticizes Taiwan’s Lai for ‘dangerous signal’ in inauguration speech.  China criticized the inaugural address of new Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, accusing him of "seeking 'independence'" and being a "'Taiwan independence worker'" who "sent a dangerous signal...undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," according to Chen Binhua, spokesman for the PRC department handling Taiwan affairs.  Chen also said, "The motherland must be reunified, and it will be reunified," as reported by the official Xinhua News Agency.  The outcry signals a rocky relationship between Beijing and Lai's administration.  Lai, in his inaugural address, urged China to “stop its verbal attacks and military intimidation" and work towards "maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region.”  He also pledged to "neither yield nor provoke, and maintain the status quo" across the Taiwan Strait, echoing his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's stances, including upholding Taiwan's free and democratic constitutional system while resisting encroachment upon its sovereignty.  Bloomberg Bloomberg South China Morning Post Nikkei Asia Financial Times Wall Street Journal BBC

Macron heads to New Caledonia, Australia and New Zealand send evacuation flights.  French President Emmanuel Macron is traveling to New Caledonia on Tuesday, days after riots erupted in the Pacific island over electoral reform that critics feared would dilute the vote of Indigenous Kanaks.  At least six people have died in the unrest.  France has deployed hundreds of police personnel to restore order.  Australia and New Zealand have started evacuating nationals from the French territory.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Solomon Islands says Australia ‘partner of choice,’ reviewing police presence.  Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said on Tuesday that Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele told him that the Pacific island nation is undergoing a security review that will inform the future Australian police presence in the Solomon Islands.  Manele also reportedly said Australia remains the “partner of choice” for the Solomon Islands.  Canberra provided police support for the Solomon Islands’ national elections in April.  China also has a police presence in the country under a 2022 security pact with former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare.  Reuters

Europe

U.S. offers stick and carrot to Georgia over ‘foreign agents’ law: sanctions or aid. The U.S. is considering a military and trade package for Georgia if it reverses its anti-democratic trends and ensures free elections. This follows backlash over Georgia's proposed "foreign agent" bill, which critics argue would stifle dissent. The draft bill by Congressman Joe Wilson includes improved market access, a liberalized visa regime, and military support against Russian aggression, contingent on democratic reforms.  Failure to comply could result in sanctions.  A leaked draft bill seen by Politico would target ruling party lawmakers and law enforcement officers for travel bans and asset freezes, as well as possible Russian agents in the country.  Recent protests in Georgia against the bill have seen violent crackdowns, and the European Union warned it could end Georgia's hopes of joining the bloc.  Politico Politico

Read How a ‘Russian Law’ Brought Georgia to the Brink exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Kosovo raids last Serb bank, raising tensions with Belgrade.  Kosovo police on Monday shut down the last Serbian bank, Banka Postanska Stedionica, in a currency crackdown, inciting anger from Serbian officials. The raids in Serb-majority areas, where people rely on Serbian dinars for welfare payments, were denounced by Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, who called them “another savage act that directly jeopardizes the survival of Serbs in Kosovo.”  Kosovo’s interior minister deemed the bank illegal.  This action follows Kosovo's regulation prohibiting dinar use, with European Union-mediated talks failing to resolve the currency dispute, raising fears of renewed Balkan conflicts.  Kosovo split from Serbia in 2008 and has been using the euro as the only currency acceptable in cash payments since 2002, with the dinar used exclusively in Serb municipalities. Bloomberg Associated Press

Julian Assange can appeal U.S. extradition order, U.K. court rules.  Julian Assange has been granted permission by the U.K. High Court to appeal his extradition to the U.S., where he faces espionage charges. This legal victory means Assange will remain in Belmarsh prison during the appeal process. The appeal questions the assurances from U.S. prosecutors regarding his rights and fair trial. Assange's supporters argue his case threatens press freedom and he faces potential life imprisonment if convicted. Critics and human rights advocates worldwide, including the Australian parliament, have called for his release. Washington Post Al Jazeera CNN BBC New York Times 

Russia fails in rival UN bid on nuclear, other weapons in space.  A Russian-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution to prevent the placement, threat, or use of any weapons in outer space failed, with seven members voting in favor, seven against, and one abstaining. The draft needed at least nine votes to pass. The resolution followed Russia’s veto of a U.S.-drafted resolution aimed at preventing an arms race in space. The U.S. accused Russia of developing and deploying a satellite potentially carrying a nuclear device, which Russia denied. The draft echoed a 2008 Moscow-Beijing proposal but lacked international support. Reuters Associated Press

ANALYSIS - Europe wants to boost its defense industry, but doesn’t know how to.  Europe is struggling to build a more coordinated and efficient defense industry amid conflicting political visions, industrial rivalry, and American dominance. France and Germany’s recent agreement to develop a new battlefield tank, the Main Combat Ground System, faced delays due to political infighting. Europe's defense efforts, jolted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are hindered by logistical and political challenges. NATO sets defense strategy but doesn’t control procurement, leading to fragmented defense markets and inefficiencies. “Europe has 27 military industrial complexes, not just one,” said Max Bergmann, a program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The European Union aims to bolster its defense industry, but funding and collaboration issues persist. Over the past two years, 78 percent of the defense equipment acquired by E.U. members was bought from outside the bloc — mostly from American arms makers that have no interest in tougher competition from Europe. New York Times

ANALYSIS - While many armies struggle for recruits, Sweden turns them away.  In Sweden, the conscription system is discerningly selective, recruiting only a small percentage of the nation's youth, who undergo rigorous testing to ensure top-tier candidates are chosen for military service. This approach not only reinforces Sweden's defense capabilities but also enriches the civilian sector with well-trained individuals. With the plan to expand the military personnel significantly by 2030, Sweden exemplifies a robust national defense strategy intertwined with enhancing civil employment opportunities. This effective recruitment model, which contrasts sharply with the recruitment challenges faced by countries like the U.S., highlights the evolving defense strategies across Europe, where nations are increasingly reevaluating their military conscription policies to meet contemporary security demands.  Wall Street Journal

Read Amid Dire Warnings About Russia, Europe Has A Troop Problem exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Poland arrests nine for links to alleged Russian sabotage plot.  Polish authorities arrested nine people from an alleged Russian spy ring suspected of planning sabotage plots.  The individuals were Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the sabotage plots included “beatings, arson, and attempted arson” in Poland, as well as in Latvia, Lithuania, and Sweden.  Earlier this year, Ukrainian and Polish authorities arrested a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to help Russia assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky.  Kyiv Independent Reuters The Guardian

Middle East

China’s Xi says ties with Iran to continue after death of ‘good friend’ Raisi; Russia’s Putin offers condolences.  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed condolences following the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Xi Jinping said that Raisi's death was "a great loss to the Iranian people," adding, "the Chinese people have lost a good friend.” In a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Putin called Raisi's death "a huge tragedy" and stated, "As a true friend to Russia's, he made an invaluable personal contribution to the establishing of neighborly relations between our two countries and made great efforts to elevate them to the level of strategic partnership." South China Morning Post Politico

The one thing US fears after Iranian president’s death.  U.S. watches closely after Iranian president’s death.  The Biden administration is closely monitoring Iran following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a helicopter crash. The U.S. expects no major policy changes until a new president is elected.  However, there are concerns over potential blame towards Israel or the U.S., which could escalate tensions. However, immediate priorities for Iran involve internal political stability. The U.S. has since expressed condolences and confirmed that it offered assistance in locating the wreckage, though logistical issues prevented it from doing so.  Politico

Read Iran Power Struggle Looms After President’s Death and What the Death of Iran’s President Could Mean for Tehran and the Region exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Iran president’s death, Saudi king’s health raise succession questions across Middle East.  The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi adds to uncertainty to the succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Despite this, Tehran is unlikely to change its regional strategies, including its détente with Saudi Arabia.  The development also adds to wider shifts to transitions in Middle Eastern leadership, including the issue of the health of Saudi King Salman.  This adds further instability to a region already rocked by the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Wall Street JournalWashington Post Bloomberg

Africa

Hostages rescued from Boko Haram in Nigeria.  The Nigerian army has rescued hundreds of hostages, predominantly children and women, from Boko Haram extremists in the northeastern Sambisa Forest. The rescue operation freed 350 individuals, including 209 children, 135 women, and six men. Some of the girls were accompanied by babies believed to have been born from forced marriages during their captivity, a tragic reality for female victims subjected to rape or forced marriage by militants.  Associated Press 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

EPA warns of increasing cyberattacks against U.S. water utilities.  The Environmental Protection Agency issued an enforcement alert on Monday warning that cyberattacks against U.S. water facilities are becoming more severe and more frequent, and calling on water systems to take immediate action to bolster their cybersecurity.  The EPA said about 70% of water utilities inspected by federal officials over the last year violated cybersecurity standards.  The alert said many systems are failing in basic cybersecurity hygiene, such as by not changing default passwords or not removing access to former employees.  Recent cyberattacks by cyber threat actors associated with Russia and Iran against water utilities have heightened the urgency to address the issue.

Jermaine Roebuck, CISA’s Associate Director for Threat Hunting, told The Cipher Brief that many water and wastewater sector entities “don’t have the resources to effectively practice and implement basic and recommended cybersecurity defense practices.”  He said these facilities “often have internet-facing critical control system components that have weak authentications,” meaning threats actors can easily use “unsophisticated methods” to infiltrate systems.  Associated Press EPA 

Read Cybersecurity Official: Many Water Facilities Still Unware of Threat – and Unprepared and What are Adversaries Doing in the U.S. Water Supply? exclusively in The Cipher Brief

Chinese hackers likely behind ‘targeted’ phishing attack on U.S. AI experts.  The Proofpoint cybersecurity firm has detected a phishing campaign by a suspected Chinese-speaking hacking group that is directed at fewer than “10 individuals, all of whom appear to have a direct connection to a single leading U.S.-based artificial intelligence organization.”   The group, tracked by ProofPoint as “UNK_SweetSpecter,” is deploying the SugarGh0st RAT remote access trojan frequently used by Chinese-speaking threat actors.  The targeted individuals in the unidentified AI company received phishing emails designed to load the trojan malware onto their devices.  The hackers posed as users reporting an issue with an AI tool and indicated that details on the problem were contained in an attached file.  According to Proofpoint, the zip file malware is almost identical to trojan software uncovered by Cisco in November that was used against targeted individuals in Central and East Asia.  Proofpoint analysts note that the lure theme specifically targeting AI experts and indicating “interest in a specific software…is notable.”  The likely goal of the attack was “to obtain non-public information about generative artificial intelligence.”  Axios Proofpoint

House markup of defense bill to consider ‘Cyber Force’ addition amendment.  A proposal to create an independent U.S. “Cyber Force” may be included in the House Armed Services Committee markup of the FY2025 defense authorization bill on Wednesday.  An amendment is expected to be offered by Representatives Morgan Luttrell and Chrissy Houlahan.  Luttrell told Recorded Future News that the measure will “really bring out the necessity of a Cyber Force, something that operates specifically in this cyberspace.”  The creation of a separate cyber force has been opposed by the Pentagon on the grounds that the U.S. Cyber Command established in 2010 is still developing and that a new service arm could lead the other military branches to minimize digital operations.  The expected amendment would require the DoD to task the National Academy of Sciences to perform an independent evaluation for a separate, uniformed Cyber Force.  Last year, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand added a similar provision to the Senate authorization bill, but it was cut from the final, compromise legislation.  The new House amendment calls for the National Academy to explore policy aspects of a new armed service and contains a “prohibition against interference” preventing DoD officials from interfering with the report’s findings.  The Record

Seoul AI safety summit to call on tech firms to intensify safeguards in AI models.  The next round of the AI Safety Summit series in Seoul, Korea this week will feature a British call for tech firms to intensify efforts to incorporate safety into their AI models.  Michelle Donelan, the U.K.’s secretary of state for science, in a preview of the gathering said, “there will be some agreements that we broker.”  Representatives from China, the U.S., India and Canada, among others, will participate in the latest round of talks.  Donelan said that Britain’s approach to AI safety has been to avoid a “rush to regulate” in favor of understanding the risks posed by AI and encouraging international attention to the issue.  Donelan acknowledged that among participating nations “there will always be slightly different approaches, what we want is commonality on taking this seriously.”  U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol wrote in an opinion piece appearing in British and Korean newspapers that "although positive efforts have been made to shape global AI governance, significant gaps still remain.”  Bloomberg Reuters

U.K. AI Safety Institute plans San Francisco office to broaden collaboration.  Britain plans to open a branch of its AI Safety Institute in San Francisco this summer to broaden global collaboration on AI regulation.  Recruitment of technical staff for the new office is underway as the U.K. institute seeks closer ties with its U.S. counterpart.  Michelle Donelan, the U.K.’s secretary of state for science, said “opening our doors overseas and building on our alliance with the U.S. is central to my plan to set new, international standards on AI safety.” Motivations for the U.K. outpost include proximity to world-leading tech firms in Silicon Valley to influence ongoing AI development as well as building the U.K.’s visibility in this key economic sector.  Ian Hogarth, chair of Britain’s AI institute, emphasized in a statement how important it is to have a global perspective on AI safety as well as to “share research and work collaboratively with other countries to test models and anticipate risks of frontier AI.”  Speaking of the new San Francisco office, Hogarth said “we are proud to be scaling our operations in an area bursting with tech talent, adding to the incredible expertise that our staff in London has brought since the very beginning.”  Reuters TechCrunch

Indian politicians find voter outreach benefits in AI deepfakes.  Wired is out with an extensive profile of the burgeoning deepfake production industry in India, where the technology is finding acceptance among politicians eager to get their message to the public.  With a billion voters, deepfakes in India could play a decisive and potentially divisive role, according to Wired.  Reversing the usual negative attitude toward deepfake technology, Wired points out that Indian politicians are extending the technology’s use beyond malign applications – misinformation, disinformation, propaganda – to perform voter outreach to a population with 22 official languages and thousands of regional dialects, often in remote communities. In one recent example, a local candidate for the country’s ruling party, the BJP, had his first experience with how AI-powered deepfake are put together.  A director tutored Shakti Singh Rathore on sitting and speaking as he collected audio-video data to create a convincing AI deepfake aimed at the 300,000 voters of a local district.  Then, using AI processing, the data recreated Rathore speaking in Hindi, Tamil, Sanskrit, and Marathi for outreach to district voters in their native tongues.  Wired notes that more than 50 million AI-generated voice clone calls were made in the two months leading up to the start of the elections in April, which will extend until June 1.  Wired

Google offers advice for tech sector in endorsing critical report of Microsoft.  Google has come out in support of a recent critical report on Microsoft cybersecurity issued by the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB).  A Google blog post hailed the review board’s examination of security procedures and policies at Microsoft and offered recommendations for the digital sector.  Google urged governments to purchase only “secure by design” products, offer contracts based on past security performance, and avoid single-point breaches that result in “devastating” system compromise by adopting a multi-vendor approach.  In a recent interview, Sandra Joyce, a threat intelligence executive with Google Cloud, told Politico, “There’s always a risk in concentrating on one single platform across the government, no matter the company.  Having a choice is a very positive thing for an agency or for individuals.”  Google ended its blog post looking to positive change in the tech sector, saying “in today’s landscape of constantly evolving threats, the status quo is not sufficient, so we are committed to helping move the industry in a new, more secure direction.”  Politico Google Blog

NSF to release guidance to federal agencies on sensitive technology research.  A forthcoming risk management framework from the National Science Foundation (NSF) will guide federal agencies as they consider the national security implications of research involving sensitive technologies.  In testimony last week to a House science and technology committee, NSF Director Sethuraman Panchanathan said the new process — Trusted Research Using Safeguards and Transparency (TRUST) – will be offered as a pilot in “coming months.”  The TRUST framework responds to a recommendation by a MITRE scientific advisory group that the NSF “differentiate scientific research projects based on the sensitivity levels of their potential applications and apply specific mitigation measures to prevent lapses in security.”  The NSF is mandated by the CHIPS and Science Act “to identify and control research that may expose controlled unclassified or classified information.”  At the House hearing, the NSF director also noted that limited funding of the foundation means that U.S. research into AI and quantum, among other emerging technologies, will lose ground to China.  Panchanathan testified, “our competitor is now funding those ideas that we don't fund because we don't have the resources.”  NextGov

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes, Leighton Durham, and Katharine Campbell, contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief