Tuesday, March 7, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Pentagon Continues Probe Into ‘Havana Syndrome’ Despite IC Assessment. The US Defense Department says it will continue its investigation into the anomalous health incidents (AHI) known as the “Havana Syndrome” according to a DOD memo. The announcement came just after an updated Intelligence Community assessment was released that claims the incidents are not likely the result of foreign adversary using a weapon. Sources say that part of the Pentagon’s continued investigation will include research on potential directed energy weapons that could have been used. A congressionally mandated Pentagon-led team will continue working to address and respond to ongoing incidents and nn intelligence official also said that the Pentagon will continue efforts to develop “defenses” against the incidents. The US National Security community remains divided over the cause of these incidents which is thought to have affected as many as 1000 government employees. The “Havana Syndrome” was first reported in 2016 when a group of employees working at the US embassy in Havana reported symptoms that included severe headaches, temporary loss of hearing, vertigo and other symptoms consistent with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Politico
Former Trump-Era China Advisor Praises Blinken for Raising Issue of Chinese Weapons Supply to Russia. Matthew Pottinger, the top Asia advisor in former President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, praised Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday for his decision to publicly raise US concerns that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine. Pottinger added that he believes Blinken would not have publicly brought up the issue unless he had “high confidence” in it and that warnings by fellow top officials from the Biden administration have “bought a year… of Beijing restraint” on the matter. Pottinger himself assessed that China may be considering the arms transfers to prolong the Ukraine war “to drain Western attention” from the Western Pacific. He added that he believes there are “conventional means” to deter China in the region short of placing Taiwan under the US nuclear umbrella. South China Morning Post
Search Underway in Mexican Border Town for Kidnapped Americans. US and Mexican authorities are searching for four Americans who were kidnapped in the Mexican city of Matamoros in Tamaulipas state last Friday. The FBI and Mexican government say the Americans traveled to Mexico in order to receive healthcare. Shortly after crossing the border, they were shot at by gunmen and then forced into a different vehicle by armed men. The US ambassador to Mexico says one innocent Mexican bystander was killed in the incident. The FBI is offering a $50,000 reward for the return of the missing individuals and the arrest of those behind their kidnapping. Associated Press Reuters Washington Post
Canada to Launch Probe into Chinese Election Interferences. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that an independent special investigator will be appointed to investigate allegations of Chinese interference in recent elections. The announcement comes following a Canadian media report that Beijing attempted to interfere in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections. China has denied these allegations, calling them “defamatory.” BBC Deutsche Welle
Western Europe
Britain Introduces Plan to Curb Channel Migration. Britain introduced legislation on Tuesday aimed at blocking asylum seekers attempting to enter the UK via small boats across the English Channel. The proposed law will prevent those arriving illegally on small boats from claiming asylum and have them deported to so-called safe third countries. Refugee organizations warn that the measure will potentially block tens of thousands of genuine refugees from being granted asylum in Britain. BBC Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Commits to Defense of Bakhmut Against Ongoing Russian Attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed Monday that Ukrainian forces will continue the defense of the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut amid ongoing Russian attacks. Zelenskiy said Ukraine’s military command “unanimously supported” the decision to not withdraw from the city and that he ordered reinforcements to be sent to Bakhmut. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia’s assault on Bakhmut will continue and that seizing the city will allow Russian forces to penetrate deep into Ukraine’s defensive lines. Analysts have previously said that Russia’s capture of Bakhmut would largely be a symbolic victory rather than a strategic or operational success that would indicate a shift in the war in Moscow’s favor. On Monday the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukrainian forces were likely conducting a ‘limited tactical’ retreat in areas around Bakhmut, but noted that it was too early to fully assess Ukraine’s intentions. Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine Requesting Cluster Munitions from US. US Representatives Jason Crow and Adam Smith told Reuters that Ukraine is requesting MK-20 air-delivered cluster bombs from the US and wants to cannibalize the munitions for use with drones. The MK-20 is designed to be delivered by aircraft where it opens in flight and disperses more than 240 individual dart-like ‘bomblets’. Ukraine’s military says it believes the munitions in the weapon can better pierce and destroy Russian armor units. It is unclear if the US will approve the request for the cluster munitions, which are banned by over 120 countries for their ability to indiscriminately bomb a wide area. Crow said he may support giving MK-20s if Ukraine guarantees it will remove the bomblets and “use them in a non-cluster employment.” US Senator Lindsay Graham indicated he supports the measure while Representative Adam Smith said it is not likely that the Biden administration will approve the request. Opponents of the transfer of cluster munitions say they will threaten civilians and that their high failure rate will worsen Ukraine’s unexploded ordnance problem. Ukraine has previously admitted that the munitions are controversial but says it is not party to the convention banning their use and can therefore legally use them and says the weapons will be used to defend against Russia’s “human wave” style attacks that have been widely used in the battle for Bakhmut. RFE/RL Reuters
Czech Company Sees Boom for Fake Military Equipment Decoys. Czech company Inflatech Decoys says it has seen an increase in orders for its inflatable real-size decoys of military equipment since the start of the Ukraine war. The decoys are used to divert and deplete enemy fire. While the company has not confirmed it supplies Ukraine, it said it is producing fakes of HIMARS units, which are key US-supplied weapons used by Ukrainian forces. Reuters
Exiled Belarus Opposition Leader Sentenced to 15 Years in Prison. Belarusian state media reports that a Minsk court sentenced exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tiskhanouskaya to 15 years in prison on charges of treason. Tiskhanouskaya, who is in exile in Lithuania, ran against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in 2020 in an election that opposition supporters claimed was rigged. Tishkanouskaya continues to lead the opposition from exile and says she will continue to “fight for freedom” despite the sentencing. Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters
Asia
China’s Xi Directly Criticizes the US. Chinese leader Xi Jinping made unusually blunt direct reference to the US and criticized what he said were US efforts to encircle and suppress China. In a speech on the sidelines of China’s parliamentary session on Monday, Xi said the Western countries are being led by the US to challenge and stymy China’s development. He called for Beijing to act calmly and maintain steady action and resistance. Xi’s comments appear to mark the first time he has openly and directly criticized US actions against China and indicate that tensions between Washington and Beijing are unlikely to de-escalate in the short-term. New York Times South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang Hits Out at US, Discusses Ukraine, Russia, Chinese Diplomacy. China’s new foreign minister Qin Gang held his first annual press conference on Monday. Qin used much of the briefing to criticize US policies to “contain and suppress China.” He added that tensions over issues like the spy balloon incident have been driven by a “hysterical McCarythism” and a desire by the US to pursue “not fair competition, but malicious confrontation.” Qin warned that “if the US does not put on the brakes” then US-China relations will devolve into “conflict and confrontation” with “catastrophic consequences.” He then called on the US to abandon a zero-sum, Cold War mentality and find ways to allow China and others to prosper. Regarding the Ukraine war, Qin reiterated China’s peace proposal to end the conflict and warned of an “invisible hand” escalating the crisis. He also said China has not supplied weapons to either side in the war, but criticized the US for arming Taiwan while demanding Beijing not supply arms to Moscow. Regarding countries besides the US and Russia, Qin called against an Asia-Pacific version of NATO and highlighted ties with Japan. He also said that China supports “European integration” and hopes Europe will achieve “strategic autonomy” following the Ukraine war. BBC Politico South China Morning Post
North Korea Warns US Against Shooting Down Test Missiles. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, warned Tuesday that Pyongyang will view any moves to shoot down missiles it launches in weapons tests as a declaration of war. She also said that the Pacific Ocean is not “the dominium of the US or Japan,” signaling that North Korea may conduct more missile launches in the Pacific, including over Japan. Separately, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry condemned recent joint air drills and upcoming exercises between the US and South Korea, saying they are “aggravating” tensions on the Korean peninsula. South Korea’s Unification Ministry countered by saying North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs are to blame for the crisis. Reuters South China Morning Post
Japan’s Space Program Suffers Another Setback with Rocket Launch Failure. A next-generation H3 rocket being tested by Japan’s space agency JAXA failed minutes after take off after its second-stage engine did not ignite in space. This is the second attempted launch of the rocket in two months, with last month’s launch failing at liftoff because the rocket’s boosters did not ignite. The rocket was equipped with a satellite for disaster management land operation that also had the potential to detect ballistic missiles from North Korea. Deutsche Welle
Middle East and Northern Africa
White House Says UN Could Investigate Iran Schoolgirl Poisonings. The White House on Monday suggested that the UN could probe the recent poisonings of school girls in Iran. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said that if the poisonings are related to the recent protests in Iran, the UN would have the mandate to investigate. She added that a “credible independent investigation” must be held to hold those behind the poisonings responsible. Her comments came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for “severe punishment” and no amnesty for the perpetrators of the attacks. France 24 The White House
Syria Says Israeli Air Strike Hit Aleppo Airport. Syrian state media reports that an Israeli strike struck and damaged the Aleppo airport on Tuesday. The attack reportedly put the airport out of service due to runway damage. Israel’s government and military did not comment on the attack. Aleppo’s airport has been used to receive foreign aid to support surrounding areas impacted by Syria’s civil war and the recent Turkey-Syria earthquakes. Al Jazeera France 24
Sub Saharan Africa
Somalia’s Al Shabaab Recaptures Military Base. The Islamist group al Shabaab recaptured a military base in Somalia’s southern Jubbaland region that they had previously lost to the Somali army. Somali officials say armed al Shabaab fighters launched an offensive on the base early Tuesday morning with a car bomb and gunfire. The Somali government said that its regional and national forces were still able to inflict a “big blow” on al Shabaab during the attack, but did not provide additional details. Reuters
Opposition Supporters Protest Nigerian Election Results. Supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party in Nigeria led by Abubakar Atiku took to the streets in Nigeria’s capital of Abuja on Monday to protest the results of the country’s recent presidential election. Atiku, who finished second in the election, led protestors to the Independent National Electoral Commission office to submit a petition that claimed there was election fraud in the vote, which resulted in the ruling party’s candidate Bola Tinubu being named Nigeria’s next president. Deutsche Welle
Cyber & Tech
FBI, Europol Disrupts DoppelPaymer Ransomware Gang. A German police raid in Dusseldorf disrupted the ransomware cybercrime gang DoppelPaymer on Monday. Authorities say that they seized computer equipment and detained members of the cybercrime group in the operation. The raid also involved Europol, the FBI and authorities from Ukraine and the Netherlands. The DoppelPaymer gang created the DoppelPaymer ransomware and is suspected of having ties with the Russia-based Evil Corp crime syndicate. The DoppelPaymer ransomware is believed to have been used to extort at least $42 million from US victims and was deployed in high-profile attacks against Britain’s National Health Service and Dusseldorf University Hospital. Associated Press BleepingComputer CyberScoop
Critical Technology Executives Replace Internet Representatives at China Meeting. The Wall Street Journal reports that top executives from Chinese internet giants like Tencent Holdings Ltd, Baidu Inc and NetEase Inc are not attending China’s parliamentary session this week and that experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and semiconductors have taken their place. The change in who is attending the political meetings demonstrates China’s shift from focusing on its online services industry and platform economy to emerging technologies. Wall Street Journal
China Tech Chief Wary of Generative AI Due To Ethical Concerns, Content Control. China’s science and technology minister Wang Zhigang said at China’s ongoing parliamentary session that while Beijing will continue to work on technological self-reliance, it has work to do to develop AI that can compete with OpenAI’s generative AI product ChatGPT. Analysts say Chinese AI development needs work in several areas, such as producing real-time results like ChatGPT, and may face challenges navigating China’s internet censorship. Wang also raised ethical concerns about AI development. South China Morning Post
Largest African Startup Suffers Hack and Theft of Millions of Dollars. Tech publication Techpoint Africa reports that Nigerian-based Flutterwave, Africa’s largest startup by private evaluation, suffered a cyber attack last month where it lost around $4.2 million from its accounts. Investigations show that unknown actors transferred the funds across 28 accounts in 63 transactions in February. It is still unclear how the attack happened, though it is theorized that it was socially engineered. Authorities are investigating the matter. TechCrunch
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