Report for Tuesday, March 5, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Gaza ceasefire talks extended for day after no breakthrough

Ukrainian maritime drones sink Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship

Pentagon remains adrift without full budget

China government reports lose mention of “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan as Beijing boosts defense spending

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

CIPHER BRIEF SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — End of Life Care for Tech Could Ward Off China’s Hackers

CIPHER BRIEF OPINION — Upgrading the U.S. Military’s Nuclear Warheads

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Gaza ceasefire talks extended for day after no breakthrough as Ramadan deadline looms.  Hamas negotiators will extend talks in Cairo for another day, seeking progress in ceasefire discussions with mediators. The talks aim to secure a 40-day truce between Hamas and Israel, facilitating the release of hostages and aid distribution in Gaza ahead of Ramadan. Hamas has presented its proposal for a ceasefire but awaits a response from Israel, which has abstained from the current round. Disagreements persist, notably concerning hostage lists. Meanwhile, Gaza faces a dire humanitarian crisis, with famine gripping the territory, exacerbated by limited aid supplies and widespread malnutrition, particularly affecting children. Israel and aid agencies are at odds over access to distribute aid effectively, as Gaza's health system struggles to cope with the crisis.  Reuters

Israeli source: 'Enraged' Netanyahu trying to undermine Gantz's U.S. visit.  Vice President Kamala Harris met Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz in Washington on Monday to discuss the Gaza war. Harris reportedly emphasized the urgency of securing a hostage release deal and facilitating more aid deliveries into Gaza. She praised Israel’s “constructive approach” to a six-week-long ceasefire, but pushed for more action on aid. Senior Israeli officials told Haaretz that the meeting was a calculated move by the White House to strengthen the moderate wing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. The newspaper reports that Gantz's visit comes amid strained relations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden over the hard line Israel is taking on the Gaza Strip. Gantz also met with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday. He was also scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.  New York Times Haaretz 

Israel launches major Ramallah raid.  Israeli forces conducted a significant raid on the Palestinian administrative capital of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank early Monday. Palestinian sources said Israeli forces shot and killed a 16-year-old boy in the al-Amari camp during the raid. The Israeli military stated that the operation was a counter-terrorism effort in response to a riot with rocks and petrol bombs. The Palestinian health ministry reported casualties in the raid, and the Palestinian foreign ministry condemned Israeli actions, warning of the potential for increased “violence and anarchy.” Israeli forces also conducted raids in Nablus and Tulkarm, with reports of detentions and property destruction. Palestinian news agency WAFA said a 10-year-old boy was killed in a raid in the village of Burin. At least 55 Palestinians were reportedly detained during the overnight raids across the West Bank.  Reuters The Guardian

UN finds evidence of sexual violence by Hamas during and since Oct. 7. attack.  The U.N. has found “reasonable grounds” to conclude that Hamas committed sexual violence during its Oct. 7 attack in Israel. A U.N. team investigating the allegations said it has “clear and convincing information” that women and children held in captivity were subject to conflict-related sexual violence like rape and sexualized torture. The team also concluded that such sexual violence is likely ongoing.  Bloomberg New York Times Reuters Washington Post Associated Press 

U.S. steps up pressure on Israel to deliver humanitarian aid; Israeli military pushes back.  The U.S. is hammering Israel to open “as many channels as possible” to deliver more humanitarian aid to Gaza, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Monday. “As last week’s incident in northern Gaza made painfully clear, people are desperate for food, for water, for medicine,” Miller said. “Parents are facing impossible choices about how to feed their children. Many don’t know where the next meal will come from, or if it will come at all. The situation is simply intolerable.” The uncharacteristically harsh State Department briefing showcased the Biden administration’s growing frustration with the Netayahu government.  Shimon Freedman, spokesman for the Israeli military unit in charge of assuring the welfare of Palestinians, fired back. “There is not a shortage of food or water in the Gaza Strip at the moment,” Freedman said, according to Bloomberg News.  “It’s just not true that starvation is looming.” Freedman blamed international aid groups for sloughing off and creating a “bottleneck”:  “They need to extend working hours and staff, and they haven’t been doing that.”  According to the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli military said 277 trucks carrying humanitarian aid were inspected and entered Gaza Sunday, a significant increase over the trickle of trucks reported in recent days, but many fewer than the 500-a-day average before the war.  Unicef, the United Nations Children’s Fund, said that “at least ten children have reportedly died because of dehydration and malnutrition in Kamal Adwan Hospital in the Northern Gaza Strip in recent days. There are likely more children fighting for their lives…These tragic and horrific deaths are man-made, predictable and entirely preventable.” Bloomberg  Wall Street Journal Reuters

War of words between Israel and U.N. Palestinian aid agency gets uglier.  UNRWA, officially the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, on Monday  accused Israel of detaining several of its staffers, torturing and abusing them and forcing them into giving false confessions about the links between the aid agency, Hamas and the Oct. 7 attacks. “These forced confessions as a result of torture are being used by the Israeli Authorities to further spread misinformation about the agency as part of attempts to dismantle UNRWA,” the statement said. “This is putting our staff in Gaza at risk and has serious implications on our operations in Gaza and around the region.’’

“Over 450 UNRWA employees are military operatives in terror groups in Gaza — 450,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, Israel’s chief military spokesperson, countered  Monday. “This is no mere coincidence. This is systematic. There is no claiming, ‘we did not know’. ”  That number is a dramatic escalation of Israel’s initial charge – that 12 UNRWA personnel had ties to Hamas and aided in the Oct. 7 attacks.  After that accusation, the agency fired a handful of employees named by Israel.  The U.S. was among a dozen countries that suspended about $450 million in funding, almost half the agency’s annual budget.  Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, told a press conference late Monday that he “has never been informed” or received any evidence of Israel’s claims.  Associated Press Reuters 

ANALYSIS — The improbable U.S. plan for a reformed Palestinian Authority.  Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces currently undergoing training at a U.S.-funded center in Jericho face significant challenges. The training aims to prepare them for maintaining order as part of efforts to professionalize the force. The PA security forces continue to face issues such as chronic underfunding, unpopularity among the public, and territorial and operational constraints from both Israeli restrictions or and de facto rule of militant groups in certain Palestinian areas. The PA's struggle raises doubts about their ability to extend their operations to Gaza, a key component of the U.S. vision for a strengthened Palestinian Authority. Major expansion of training and intensified political negotiations are needed to revitalize the PA to fulfill this U.S. goal.  Washington Post 

State Department says employee of U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem has died.  The U.S. State Department said on Monday that an American employee of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem has died. The Department did not provide further details due to privacy considerations, only saying that the death is under investigation. The Embassy added: “Foul play is not suspected.”   Washington Post 

THE RED SEA

Houthis hit container vessel in Gulf of Aden with missile, ignite fire.  One of two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthis at the container vessel M/V MSC SKY II in the Gulf of Aden hit the ship, the U.S. Central Command said Tuesday.  Initial reports indicated no injuries and the Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel did not request assistance and continued on its way, CENTCOM said in a statement.   The private security firm Ambrey reported, “The container ship reportedly encountered two explosions of which the first occurred at a ‘distance’ off its port quarter, while the second damaged the vessel’s accommodation block and a container leading.  The explosion further led to a fire onboard and the crew’s firefighting efforts were underway.”  Ambrey and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said no crew member on the ship had been injured in the blaze, which was extinguished several hours later.   Reuters Jerusalem Post Bloomberg  Associated Press 

U.S. admiral says Red Sea naval mission effectively guarding against Houthi attacks.  The commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, said that the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian is effectively safeguarding commercial shipping in the Red Sea from attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis. Wikoff said U.S. personnel in the coalition are operating at a high tempo to protect ships, reminiscent of the Tanker War in the 1980s, when Iran and Iraq attacked merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and coalition forces have destroyed numerous missiles and drones launched by Houthis, while defensive operations have enabled most normal merchant traffic to continue transiting the Red Sea. Despite a few successful Houthi attacks, the coalition continues operations, backed by the E.U.-led Aspides operation. Wikoff affirmed the commitment to the mission to preserve freedom of navigation and protect lives and livelihoods.  Stars and Stripes 

Red Sea data cables cut. Three cables under the Red Sea that provide global internet and telecommunications have been cut, affecting about a quarter of Red Sea traffic, officials said Monday.  The cables involved are the Asia-Africa-Europe 1, the Europe India Gateway, Seacom and TGN-Gulf, according to Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications.  It said the Red Sea lines are crucial for data moving from Asia to Europe.  Traffic is being re-routed.  Associated Press

Ships entering Yemeni waters must obtain permit, Houthi minister says. Houthi Telecommunications Minister Misfer Al-Numair said yesterday that ships will need a permit from Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Maritime Affairs Authority before entering Yemeni waters. Houthi-run Al Masirah TV reported Al-Numair said the Houthis have imposed the requirement out of concern for ships’ safety. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the TPM24 container shipping conference in Long Beach, California that there is good reason to doubt that the Houthis will cease their attacks on ships even if there is a ceasefire in Gaza because they may decide “they like the idea” of controlling the amount of shipping transiting the Red Sea. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian maritime drones sink Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship.  Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Ukrainian maritime drones hit and sank the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov near the Kerch Strait off occupied Crimea overnight. The agency said a special unit called Group 13 launched Magura V5 maritime drones in the attack. The agency also reported that the ship cost an estimated $65 million. Russia’s defense ministry did not comment on the matter, though some Russian military bloggers confirmed the claim. Traffic on the bridge between the Crimean Peninsula and Russian mainland was also temporarily stopped, Moscow-installed officials said.  Reuters Associated Press

Ukraine’s Air Force launches eight strikes on enemy positions, hits UAV ground control station. The Ukrainian Air Force launched six strikes on enemy manpower clusters and hit one UAV ground control station, according to a Ukrainian military  Facebook post.  It said:  “A total of 63 combat engagements took place on the frontline over the past day. The enemy launched 5 missile attacks and 66 air strikes and carried out 108 attacks involving multiple launch rocket systems at the Ukrainian positions and populated areas. As a result of Russian terrorist attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Private residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged,” the report says.  Ukrinform 

Ukraine's military says Russian forces contained near Avdiivka but regrouping.  Ukraine's military said Monday its forces had contained a Russian advance outside the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka captured last month, but Russian soldiers were regrouping  further south.  Moscow is reinforcing its troops to capture Novomykhailivka near Marinka, which has become one of the hottest areas of the front, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria Group, toldRadio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.  Reuters Kyiv Independent 

\Ukraine downs 18 of 22 Russian drones fired at Odesa.   Russian forces launched 22 Shahed-type combat drones from Russian-occupied Crimea towards Odesa overnight, the Ukraine military said. Air defense forces destroyed 18 of them. Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces reported that several buildings of a recreational facility were damaged in Odesa Oblast.  A fire broke out and was extinguished.  Kyiv Independent Ukrinform 

Russian drone attack kills 2 firefighters in Ukraine, injures 3 more.  A Russian drone strike on the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast killed two firefighters, ages 29 and 31, and wounded another three while they were putting out a fire caused by an earlier attack.  First responders have frequently been targeted by Russian strikes in violation of international conventions, Ukrainian officials said.  Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky replaces Support Forces commander.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Dmytro Hereha as commander of Ukraine’s Support Forces and replaced him with Oleksandr Yakovets, who previously held a managerial role in the Support Forces, which is responsible for operational support. The move is the latest in Zelensky’s reshuffle of Ukraine’s military leadership.  Kyiv Independent Ukrinform 

Austin, Umerov discuss battlefield situation, further assistance to Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in a phone conversation with Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov reaffirmed the U.S.’s commitment to ongoing assistance for Ukraine in countering Russian aggression, emphasizing the collective backing of around fifty Allies and partners.  Ukrinform

Macron set to announce ammunition pledge for Ukraine. Sources say French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce as early as this week a pledge to support a Czech proposal to provide hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from outside the European Union to Ukraine. Germany, The Netherlands and Denmark have joined France in support of the plan, which people familiar with the matter say Macron will discuss with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala in a visit to Prague today. The Czech government has said it also has received preliminary commitments from several other countries. EU defense and foreign ministers are expected to discuss details later this week. Czech President Petr Pavel told the Munich Security Conference last month that his country had identified 500,000 rounds of 155mm shells and 300,000 rounds of 122mm shells that could be delivered within weeks if funds are available. Officials said the initiative is important to send a signal to both Washington and Moscow that EU support for Ukraine is steadfast. Bloomberg

Baerbock, Britain urge Germany to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Monday urged her government to “intensively consider” providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. She said Berlin should think about sending “all materials” to Ukraine that will help it counter Russian attacks. Britain likewise called on Germany to send the missiles, noting that the U.K. sent its long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. The British push came after a leak in Russian media of a call between German military officers who said British troops are “on the ground” in Ukraine to help launch the missiles. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has resisted sending the missiles since they would require German troops to fire them. Scholz reaffirmed his position on Monday, saying, “I am the chancellor and my word counts.”  Politico The Guardian Associated Press 

Ukraine first lady implores ‘political point-scoring’ Congress: ‘This is a matter of life and death’   In an exclusive interview for "Piers Morgan Uncensored," Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska underscored the critical importance of the $60 billion aid package from the U.S., describing it as a "matter of life and death" for Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia. She emphasized that the delay in aid, due to U.S. political standoffs linking it to unrelated issues like border policies, directly correlates with loss of Ukrainian lives. Zelenska highlighted the dire need for air defense systems to protect civilians from Russian attacks, illustrating the dire situation with personal anecdotes and the broader Ukrainian experience of constant threat and loss. Despite political complexities in the U.S., she remains hopeful for support, stressing that the assistance is not just financial but crucial for survival and resistance against Russian aggression. New York Post.

Kirby: Putin taking advantage of delays in US aid. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters  yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of delays in U.S. aid in the war in Ukraine. A $95 billion foreign aid bill that includes $60 billion for Ukraine has been stuck in Congress since autumn. U.S. internal estimates say Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition could turn the tide of the war in favor of Russia. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine, Spain start talks on security guarantees. Ukraine’s Presidential Office said yesterday that Ukraine has begun negotiations with Spain on security guarantees under the Group of Seven (G7) Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine. More than 30 countries have joined the declaration, and seven countries have signed bilateral agreements with Kyiv. The G7 announced its plan for long-term security commitments to Ukraine at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. The plan calls for bilateral agreement to support Ukraine’s effort to repel Russia’s forces as well as to deter future aggression and assist with post-war reconstruction. Kyiv Independent

France invests 5 million euros in reconstruction of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov announced yesterday that Ukraine has signed a memorandum of understanding with France to invest more than 5 million euros in the reconstruction of Chernihiv Oblast. Russia partially occupied the region in northern Ukraine in the early days of the war but withdrew in April 2022 when Russian forces failed to take Kyiv. Restoration work reportedly is already underway. Several European countries have committed funds toward reconstruction work across the country. Kyiv Independent 

Putin ally Medvedev says 'Ukraine is Russia' and historical territory needs to 'come home'.  Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and ally of President Vladimir Putin, declared Ukraine as part of Russia on Monday, emphasizing the need for what he referred to as historical parts of Russia to "come home." He ruled out peace talks with the current Ukrainian government, saying that Russia should continue its “special military operation” until the Ukrainian leadership capitulates. He made his bellicose comments in front of a map of Ukraine portrayed as a smaller, landlocked entity squeezed up against Poland. While the map showed Kyiv remaining as Ukraine’s capital, it also showed Russia having control of its east, south, and the entire Black Sea coastline. Medvedev additionally said the current state of relations between Moscow and Washington is worse than during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, characterizing the situation as a fully-fledged war against Russia involving American weapons, special forces, and advisers.  Reuters

The Americas

Pentagon remains adrift without full budget.  As the Pentagon approaches its budget season for fiscal year 2025, it faces uncertainty, lacking a full budget six months into the current fiscal year. Service leaders have warned of severe consequences if a yearlong continuing resolution occurs, hindering their ability to upgrade weapons systems and increase production. Furthermore, a potential sequestration could impose automatic 1% budget cuts if Congress fails to pass all spending bills by April 30. Defense News

Drones, robotic tech pose threat to US nuclear security, general says. The increasing use of drones and robotic technology poses a significant threat to U.S. nuclear security, according to Strategic Command's leader. The proliferation of sophisticated uncrewed systems “poses a challenge to the department and our nation’s nuclear enterprise,” Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton said in his 2024 Strategic Posture Statement, which was sent to Congress on Feb. 29 These technologies are used globally for intelligence, targeting, and attacks, challenging the U.S. to develop countermeasures. The U.S. has tested counter-drone weaponry and established "no drone zones" at military and nuclear sites to safeguard against these threats. The rapid advancement of such technologies by adversaries, particularly Russia and China, underscores the urgency in enhancing defenses within the U.S. nuclear enterprise. Defense News 

CIPHER BRIEF OPINION — Upgrading the U.S. Military’s Nuclear Warheads.  A delay has opened up the possibility that new Sentinel ICBMs will not be available to begin replacing 50-year-old Minuteman III ICBMs in 2030, as currently scheduled — and that gap, however small in the U.S strategic nuclear deterrent, is causing concern in Congress, writes Cipher Brief Senior National Security Columnist Walter Pincus.  The Cipher Brief

Massachusetts Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira pleads guilty to leaking military secrets. Jack Teixeira, a Massachusetts Air National Guard member, pleaded guilty to leaking classified military documents about the Ukraine war and other secrets. He faces at least 11 years in prison under a plea deal. The 22-year-old admitted to sharing sensitive information on Discord, with sentencing set for September. This breach led the Pentagon to tighten controls. Teixeira remains in custody with his sentencing pending. The leak exposed to the world unvarnished secret assessments of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including information about troop movements in Ukraine and the provision of supplies and equipment to Ukrainian troops. Teixeira also admitted posting information about a U.S. adversary’s plans to harm U.S. forces serving overseas. Politico Stars and Stripes Associated Press

Air Force employee charged with sharing classified info on Russia’s war with Ukraine on dating site. The Justice Department announced Monday that a civilian U.S. Air Force employee faces federal charges in Nebraska for allegedly transmitting classified information regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine on a foreign online dating platform. David Franklin Slater, 63, a former Army lieutenant colonel stationed at Offutt Air Force Base’s U.S. Strategic Command, was arrested Saturday on counts of unlawfully disclosing national defense information and conspiring to do so. Slater shared classified details, including military targets and Russian capabilities, with an unnamed individual posing as a woman in Ukraine via an online messaging platform, who referred to him as “my secret informant love.”  Associated Press

Alito temporarily blocks Texas law on illegal border crossings. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito put the new Texas law on hold for at least next week while the Supreme Court considers it.  The Texas statue, known as Senate Bill 4,would have taken effect Saturday. Alito’s order pushed that date to March 13.  Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed the law in December.  It would allow state officers to arrest people suspected of entering the country illegally. The Justice Department told the Supreme Court the Texas law would profoundly alter “the status quo that has existed between the United States and the States in the context of immigration for almost 150 years.”  Washington Post Reuters

US Supreme Court seeking $19.4 million in security funding to protect justices, homes. The Supreme Court wants to strengthen security for the nine justices and their homes by bulking up its own police force. Its budget proposal cited "evolving" risks.  Reuters 

Congressional leaders invite prime minister of Japan to address Congress in April. Congressional leaders have extended an invitation to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to speak at a joint session of Congress on April 11, citing the positive impact and prosperity-driving role of the U.S.-Japan relationship. The invitation was issued by a bipartisan group of congressional leadership including House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.  Associated Press 

Haiti’s neighbor brace for escalation in violence after jailbreak.  As gang conflict escalates in Haiti, causing thousands to flee, neighboring countries are strengthening defenses and recalling embassy staff. The Dominican Republic is enhancing border security without offering refugee camps. The U.S. is advising citizens to leave Haiti. Aid work is paused amid worsening violence. Haiti's government imposed a state of emergency and curfews amid the violence, which included a prison break. All but 98 of the 3,798 inmates being held at the National Penitentiary escaped, according to the Office of Citizen Protection, according to the Associated Press, which said 1,033 prisoners escaped from Croix-des-Bouquets prison. Gangs also attempted to seize Haiti's main airport and soccer stadium.  Reuters Associated Press Reuters 

Migrants resume journeys through Darien Gap after Colombian boat companies end work stoppage.   Migrants are back on trails through the Darien Gap, Colombian officials said Monday.  Many had been stuck for some days in Necoclí, a small town on the Caribbean coast, due to a work stoppage after local boat captains were arrested.  Johann Wachter Espitia, deputy mayor of Necoclí, said that 3,000 migrants have left the town, and another 400 people are waiting there.  From Necoclí, boats take migrants to two remote villages, where trails that cross the Darien Gap begin.  Associated Press 

Mexican president acknowledges that 7 National Guard recruits drowned in an army training accident. Mexico's President, López Obrador, publicly acknowledged the tragic loss of seven National Guard recruits who drowned in a military training accident in February. The incident prompted scrutiny of the president's policy mandating guard members to undergo military training and operate under army command, despite their primary role in civilian law enforcement. Prior to this statement, Obrador had not certified the claims in public.  Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

China loses mention of “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, boosts defense spending.  An official Chinese work report reviewed by Reuters said that China will “resolutely oppose separatist activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ and external interference,” as well as “be firm in advancing the cause for China reunification.” The report drops language about “peaceful reunification” included in previous reports. A separate report said China will increase defense spending by 7.2% this year, the same rate as last year and well above the government’s economic growth forecast for this year. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council on Tuesday responded by urging China to accept the fact that both sides are not subordinate to each other and calling for healthy cross-strait engagement via dialogue without political preconditions. Associated Press Reuters Reuters Bloomberg 

Taiwan to increasemissile drills amid China threats. Taiwan plans to increase missile drill frequency in response to heightened military threats from China. Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng cited increased Chinese military activities, including daily air incursions, as the reason for the change. Reuters

U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan Strait.  The U.S. Navy said on Tuesday that the Arleigh-Burke guided missile class destroyer USS John Finn conducted a routine south-to-north transit of the Taiwan Strait. The Navy noted in a statement that the transit occurred beyond the territorial seas of any coastal state.  Reuters

Philippines, U.S. to hold military exercises with China in mind.  The Philippines and the United States are set to conduct their annual military exercises, known as Balikatan or "shoulder-to-shoulder," next month. The exercises will take place in key locations, including Philippine islands facing the South China Sea and Taiwan, amid ongoing tensions with China in the region. The move signifies a shift in the Philippines' focus from internal to external defense. This year's exercises will likely be larger than the previous year's 17,000-strong drills and will include cybersecurity training and "information warfare,” as well as joint operations, including a ship-sinking exercise. Australian troops will participate, and the French navy will join the exercises for the first time. The drills come amid expanded access of U.S. troops in the Philippines and heightened tensions between Manila and Beijing over maritime disputes.  Reuters

Philippines accuses China’s coast guard of South China Sea collision.  The Philippines accused China's coast guard of "dangerous maneuvers" causing a collision in the South China Sea during a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine troops are stationed. A Philippine coast guard vessel suffered minor structural damage and four Filipino crew members on a supply boat were injured in the incident, according to officials. A Philippine government task force criticized China’s actions as “another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission.” China’s coast said “it took control measures in accordance with the law against Philippine ships that illegally intruded” into the area. The U.S. strongly condemned the Chinese actions.  Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg

China sets ambitious growth target. Chinese Premier Li Qiang revealed an ambitions 2024 economic growth target of approximately 5% during his report at the National People's Congress, outlining measures to revamp the nation's development model and mitigate risks associated with distressed property developers and indebted municipalities. He also signaled increased defense spending and a firmer stance on Taiwan. Despite affirming a continuation of proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies, Li's emphasis on “worry-free consumption” initiatives highlights efforts to stimulate domestic spending and bolster economic resilience amidst global uncertainties. As an example of this “worry-free spending,” Li called on Chinese citizens to trade in old cars and appliances to buy new ones. Additionally, Li spoke about prioritizing employment initiatives to address job insecurity exacerbated by the pandemic and youth unemployment challenges.  Reuters Associated Press Washington Post  Wall Street Journal

China scraps premier’s annual news conference in surprise move. In a deviation from decades-long tradition, China has announced the cancellation of the annual news conference held by the premier following the National People's Congress. This move is interpreted as a sign of increasing opacity in the Chinese government and a further consolidation of power by Xi Jinping, diminishing the visibility and roles of other officials and shifting away from economic openness in favor of security and ideology. This change has sparked discussion on Chinese social media, although censorship is tightly controlling the conversation.New York Times Bloomberg Reuters 

Engaging Chinese diplomat, former anti-graft official possibly next foreign minister. Liu Jianchao is expected by many to assume the role of the next Chinese Foreign Minister. Liu currently leads the Communist Party's unit responsible for handling relations with foreign political parties. He has visited over 20 nations and met officials from more than 160 countries since 2022. Liu's active diplomacy, including high-profile meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, fuels speculation that he may be groomed for the position of foreign minister, though uncertainties persist due to the opaque decision-making process of the Chinese government.  Reuters

South Korea, US prep early talks on defense costs ahead of election.  South Korea and the U.S. have appointed envoy leads, Lee Tae-woo and Linda Specht respectively, to start discussions on cost-sharing for American troops stationed in South Korea. The move ahead of the 2026 agreement is possibly aimed at preempting potential challenges from a possible reelection of Donald Trump. With 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea to deter nuclear threats from North Korea, the cost-sharing arrangement has been a longstanding aspect of the alliance, dating back to the early 1990s when South Korea began shouldering expenses for various support services. Reuters

North Korea slams South Korea-U.S. military drills.  North Korea's defense ministry warned South Korea and the U.S. to halt military drills, saying they are rehearsals of war.  The U.S. and South Korea will have to "pay a dear price for their false choice," a North Korean official said, according to Pyongyang’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.  North Korea will conduct "military activities to strongly control the unstable security environment," KCNA reported.  "A nuclear war may be ignited even with a spark.”  Reuters Associated Press

Pakistan criticizes Indian seizure of cargo suspected of being for weapons development.  The Pakistani government criticized India for detaining cargo bound for Pakistan that New Delhi says it suspects was meant for Islamabad’s weapons programs. Indian media reported over the weekend that a shipment en route to Karachi was seized by Indian customs on January 23 in Mumbai. The Press Trust of India and other sources said the cargo, which originated in China, contained equipment that could aid Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic programs. A senior Indian official confirmed that India seized the cargo, which contained advanced computer equipment. The Pakistani government said the equipment was meant for automobile parts manufacturing and that its seizure violates international norms and laws.  Bloomberg

China remains without India ambassador.  China has not had an ambassador to India for 16 months, after the most recent incumbent Sun Weidong was promoted to vice-minister of Foreign Affairs in November 2022. It is the longest the post has been vacant since 1976 and comes amid a sharp deterioration in relations from the dispute between Beijing and New Delhi on their Himalayan border. Experts say the gap is unusual since the appointment of a new envoy would be viewed positively by both sides and help stabilize ties. Chinese and Indian media reports that the top candidate for the post is Xu Feihong, who served as assistant foreign minister for administrative and financial affairs for nearly three years before being removed from his position in December. China and India have not confirmed the appointment.  South China Morning Post

Singapore says Australian submarines will be welcome.  Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said at a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Melbourne on Tuesday that Australia’s fleet of nuclear submarines will be welcome to dock in Singapore. Singapore differs from most ASEAN countries in its early acceptance of Australia’s nuclear-powered subs. Amid tensions over China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and disagreements between Southeast Asian countries over how to respond, Lee thanked Australia for its close security relationship with Singapore.  Bloomberg

U.N. Rights Chief says China committing violation in Xinjiang and Tibet regions.  Speaking at the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva U.N. Human Rights Chief Volker Turk said China needs to adopt recommendations aimed at revising laws that infringe upon basic rights in the Xinjiang and Tibet regions. Since Turk’s comments on Monday, China's diplomatic mission in Geneva has declined requests for comment. Previously at the U.N., a report released in August 2022 by Michelle Bachelet, the former U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, highlighted potential crimes against humanity stemming from China's detention of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities.  Reuters 

Europe

E.U. Commission proposes 1.5 billion euro defense industry package.  The E.U. Commission on Tuesday proposed a 1.5 billion euro ($1.65 billion) defense industry program. The program calls on all E.U. member states to procure at least 40% of defense equipment collectively by 2030 with a goal of having the value of intra-E.U. defense trade reach at least 35% of the E.U. defense market. The package aims to bolster European militaries amid threats from Russia, as well as boost the European defense industry to better prepare for current and future challenges.  The new package comes as France, Poland, and Estonia urge the E.U. to provide significant and specific funding for defense initiatives, suggesting a financing approach akin to the pandemic-era joint bonds. The trio advocates for joint E.U. debt issuance, similar to the €800 billion Covid recovery effort, to bolster the defense sector, reduce strategic dependencies and increase munitions and critical supplies.  Reuters Bloomberg Bloomberg 

Albania opens remodeled Soviet-era air base as hub for NATO jets. Albania has opened NATO's first airbase in the country, situated in Kucova, as a strategic move to enhance regional security against Russia's "neo-imperial" ambitions. Premier Edi Rama highlighted the base's role in bolstering the Western Balkans' defense, with the facility hosting two Black Hawk helicopters and three Bayraktar drones. This development is part of Albania's broader goal to deepen its integration within NATO and pursue European Union membership. The airbase, a renovated communist-era facility, represents a €55 million investment. Defense News Stars and Stripes Bloomberg Reuters Kyiv Independent  

Poland buys Saab grenade launchers in $1.63 billion deal. Poland has purchased anti-tank grenade launchers from Sweden's Saab for $1.63 billion, aiming to boost its defense capabilities amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The deal includes several thousand Carl-Gustaf M4 grenade launchers, hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds, and supporting infrastructure and training, as part of Poland's defense spending at about 4% of its GDP. Reuters

Poland’s Tusk criticizes Hungary and Slovakia foreign ministers for meeting Russia’s Lavrov.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Monday criticized Hungary and Slovakia’s foreign ministers for meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a regional forum in Turkey. The two met with Lavrov on Friday, the same day that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was buried in Moscow. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Ingrida Simonyte likewise called the meeting “a regrettable choice.”   Associated Press

German allies tell Berlin to tighten security after Russian leak. Germany faces criticism from NATO allies after Russia disclosed sensitive details about aid discussions for Ukraine, highlighting security lapses. The leak involved a conversation between German military officers conducted on the non-encrypted platform WebEx. The leaked discussion included topics such as supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, the presence of British and French troops in Ukraine, and potential targets like the Kerch Strait Bridge. Allies expressed concerns over Germany's operational security, with some expecting tighter security measures as a result. Germany has initiated an investigation into the incident, emphasizing the importance of unity among allies despite the leak. Germany’s Defense Minister said on Tuesday that an “operational mistake” by one participant on the call for the Russian surveillance, maintaining that there is not a widespread compromise of Germany’s communications systems.  Bloomberg Reuters Washington Post 

Swiss weapons exports plunge as neutral stance hurts trade.  Swiss weapons exports declined by 27% last year, totaling 696.8 million Swiss francs ($788.06 million) in 2023, down from 955 million francs in 2022, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). Switzerland, despite its neutral stance, is a significant arms supplier globally, ranking 14th in 2022. The drop in exports is attributed to Switzerland's ban on the re-export of weapons to Ukraine amid the war. Industry association Swissmem called for a reconsideration of the re-export permit requirement, emphasizing its impact on the Swiss arms industry and arguing that the change will align Switzerland with international conventions on weaponry and not violate its neutrality.  Reuters 

Netherlands shuts China consulate as foreign investment ebbs.  The Netherlands has closed its consulate in Chongqing, China as China struggles to attract foreign investment. The Dutch Embassy in Beijing said on Friday that it would now handle matters related to Chongqing and neighboring provinces. Dutch officials told a meeting of foreign business representatives in Chengdu on Friday that the consulate is being closed because Dutch business presence in the area is limited. China’s Foreign Ministry said every country has the right to decide whether to establish or close offices abroad, and that it respects the Netherlands’ decision.  Bloomberg

IAEA chief headed to Russia to discuss nuclear safety in Ukraine.  International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said yesterday that he will depart for Moscow today for high-level talks with Russian officials on nuclear safety in Ukraine. Referring to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeastern Ukraine, Grossi told reporters that the situation “continues to be very fragile.” Grossi visited the plant last month as part of the IAEA’s efforts to prevent a nuclear disaster amid the ongoing war.  Associated Press Barrons Bloomberg

Russia says Western envoys at Navalny funeral meddling in Russia.  Russia accused Western ambassadors in Moscow of meddling in its internal affairs by attending the funeral of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized the envoys for attending Navalny's funeral and refusing to engage in diplomatic discussions with Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, suggesting they were putting on "performances" rather than conducting diplomatic work. Russian media likewise highlighted the attendance of E.U. ambassadors at Navalny's funeral and questioned the purpose of their actions in Russia.  Reuters

Russian communist wing calls for investigation into potential Western role in Stalin’s death.  The Communists of Russia party has called on Russia’s Federal Security Service and Prosecutor General’s Office to examine the potential role of Western intelligence agencies in the death of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin in 1953. The Chairman of the party, Sergei Malinkovich, suggests that Stalin was poisoned by Western agents. The request comes on the 71st anniversary of Stalin’s death. It is unclear whether the FSB or top prosecutors responded to the request.   Reuters Kyiv Independent

Swiss teen behind stabbing of Jewish man expressed solidarity with Islamic State.  A 15-year-old suspect in the stabbing of a Jewish man in Zurich appeared in a video expressing solidarity with Islamic State and calling himself a “soldier” of the group, according to Swiss police. Authorities are investigating whether the suspect acted alone or was part of a group. Swiss authorities deem the stabbing as a “terrorist” and “antisemitic” attack and have heightened security around Jewish sites.  Associated Press

Belgian authorities arrest four plotting terror attack.  Belgian police arrested four people on Sunday after they allegedly exchanged messages about a terror plot targeting a concert hall in Brussels. Police retrieved mobile phones and laptops during a raid of the suspects’ homes, but did not find weapons or explosives. The arrests were the result of an ongoing police operation into Islamist extremism amid heightened a terrorist alert level. Associated Press Deutsche Welle 

Middle East

Turkey detains seven suspected of selling information to Israel's Mossad.  Turkish police detained seven people suspected of selling information to Israel’s Mossad intelligence service. One suspect was a private detective who allegedly gathered information on Middle Eastern companies and individuals in Turkey, placed tracking devices, and engaged in surveillance, according to Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency. MIT added that the detective was trained by Mossad in the Serbian capital of Belgrade and was paid in cryptocurrency. Israel did not immediately comment on the matter.  Reuters 

U.S. condemns sentencing of Iranian singer Shervin Hajipour.  The U.S. on Monday condemned the sentencing of Iranian singer Shervin Hajipour, who won a Grammy in 2023 for writing a song that became an anthem for mass Iranian protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in Iranian police custody. Hajipour was sentenced last week to nearly four years in prison for inciting and provocation to disturb national security. A State Department spokesperson said the sentencing was another sign of Tehran’s “intent to crack down on freedom of expression and repress voices.”  Reuters RFERL Euronews

Africa

US Sanctions Zimbabwe President Mnangagwa Over Human Rights. The U.S. has sanctioned Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and other top officials, citing "gross abuses" and involvement in corruption or serious human rights abuses after disputed elections. Despite Zimbabwe being heavily sanctioned, these new measures aim to promote accountability under the Global Magnitsky Act. The sanctions target nearly a dozen individuals and three entities linked to state-sponsored corruption. This action follows Mnangagwa's disputed reelection and adds to previous U.S. efforts to address corruption and human rights issues in Zimbabwe, including visa restrictions and suspension of its dialogue with the African Development Bank.  Bloomberg Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

CIPHER BRIEF SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — End of Life Care for Tech Could Ward Off China’s Hackers.  As Chinese government hackers have burrowed into U.S. critical infrastructure, they have avoided detection by targeting low-profile devices: obsolete internet routers long ago forgotten in office closets and home basements. Experts say policymakers and businesses must address the gaps made by this “end-of-life” problem.  The Cipher Brief

China calls for nationwide push for tech supremacy.  China has re-emphasized its commitment to achieving self-reliance in critical technological sectors, including artificial intelligence and chip manufacturing, as part of a broader strategy to challenge U.S.'s dominance in these fields and circumvent U.S. tech export controls. Chinese government work reports outline plans to boost spending on scientific and technological research by 10% this year, allocating 370.8 billion yuan ($51.5 billion) in 2024.  Bloomberg

Chinese tech sector delegates to ‘two sessions’ gatherings urge AI training, chip initiatives.  Chinese tech sector leaders attending the country’s “two sessions” political gathering are urging the development of domestic advanced chip manufacturing as well as intensive educational initiatives in AI technologies.  Xiaomi smartphone CEO Lei Jun, a delegate to the National People’s Congress, note the “significant lack of top AI talent” in China, saying the creation of AI curricula in Chinese universities is one of the key elements in bolstering domestic capabilities and prospects.  Cao Pen, a technology executive for the JD.com e-commerce giant, called for growth in China’s compute power, describing it as the “foundation for training large language models.”  Consequently, expanding domestic computing power facilities is an urgent national interest, Cao said.  Speaking of global technology competition and sanctions, government spokesperson Lou Qinjian warned that “attempts at decoupling, severing supply chains and building a ‘small yard, high fence’ will only impede scientific and technological advances globally, undermine global industrial development and widen the development gap.”  South China Morning Post 

North Korean cyberespionage breach of South Korean chip firms reported.  Two South Korean microchip firms were breached by North Korean hackers in an effort to steal design drawings and photographs of facility sites.  South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) did not identify the companies involved but disclosed that the cyber intruders used “living-off-the-land" techniques in their system compromise.  NIS said the hackers broke into servers used to manage business documentation.  NIS believes global sanctions on North Korea are motivating the country to seek a domestic alternative for semiconductor production.  The domestic targets of the cyberattacks have been notified and given recommendations on detecting and stopping future intrusions.  An NIS official stressed the importance of applying security updates and strict access controls on internet-facing servers along with robust authentication processes for administrators.  The Record Cybernews BleepingComputer Bloomberg

Ukrainian intelligence agency reports cyber intrusion of Russian defense ministry system.  Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) says that it breached servers connected to the Russian Ministry of Defense and extracted sensitive documents.  According to a press release on a Ukrainian government platform, the GUR “special operation” was carried out by agency cyber-specialists.  The information the GUR claims to have exfiltrated includes Russian defense ministry software for protecting and encrypting data, documentation that reveals the structure of defense ministry systems, and data revealing the identities of senior ministry units as well as deputies and specialists.  The GUR posted screenshots of defense ministry database query results, log files, and documents outlining official procedures as evidence of a successful breach.  The Russian defense ministry has not responded to a BleepingComputer request for comment.  BleepingComputer

Taiwan chip sector experts warn of ‘unintended consequences’ of U.S. Chips Act.  A group of scholars from Taiwan have described the U.S. Chips Act “as an attempt by the U.S. to grab Taiwan’s technology.”  The commentary by the academic leaders, including former TSMC vice president Burn LIn, warns that the U.S. could spend more than $50 billion in the program which could weaken Taiwan without gaining anything substantial in return.  The “unintended consequences” of the Chips Act could be “to undercut Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturer, and leave the entire industry even more vulnerable than it already is,” the authors wrote.  They observed that If TSMC falters, the U.S. will hurt its own national security together with Taiwan’s.  “It would be far wiser,” the commentary reads, “for the U.S. to adopt an approach that protects its own economic security and strengthens Taiwan’s at the same time.”  Cybernews

Anthropic claims new generative AI product outperforms OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  Google-backed AI startup Anthropic has unveiled the latest version of its generative AI product, Claude, which it claims outperforms OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  Claude 3 encompasses three ascending levels of capability – Claude 3 Haiku, Claude 3 Sonnet, and Claude 3 Opus.  Anthropic says all three models offer increased analytical and forecasting capabilities as well as multimodal features, which can analyze images as well as text.  Photos, charts, graphs, and diagrams are among the formats Claude 3 can process.  The new product also distinguishes itself from some rivals by its ability to analyze up to 20 images in a single request.  Anthropic has imposed some limitations on Claude 3, including disabling the models from identifying individuals.  The product also will not generate images, only analyze them.  TechCrunch Reuters

BlackCat ransomware turns off servers amid claim they stole $22 million ransom. The ALPHV/BlackCat ransomware group has ceased its server operations amid allegations of defrauding the affiliate behind the Optum attack of $22 million. Although BlackCat's data leak blog was inaccessible from Friday, BleepingComputer confirmed that negotiation platforms remained active throughout the weekend. Today, it was confirmed that the ransomware gang's negotiation sites are also offline, indicating a deliberate shutdown of their infrastructure.  Bleeping Computer

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.

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